Asked by Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com if he’ll be disappointed if he isn’t traded to a contending team this year, Jonathan Papelbon replied, “Yeah, I will be, if we continue to lose.” Papelbon again voiced a preference to win with the Phillies, stating that “there’s no better reward than that,” though clearly that isn’t looking likely, as the Phils are off to a 5-11 start with a -33 run differential. More than anything, it seems that Papelbon wants to avoid a season full of trade rumors without a deal coming to fruition. “I will be disappointed if this continues to happen,” said Papelbon. “If we continue to do the same things as we’ve done the last couple years with me, where we try to do something and get something done with me and then nothing still happens.”
In more Papelbon/Phillies-related news…
- Salisbury’s colleague, Corey Seidman, feels that the league has undervalued Papelbon recently due to his abrasive personality, his contract and his diminished velocity. However, as Seidman notes, Papelbon has been working with diminished velocity dating back to Opening Day 2014, and he’s still pitching excellently, throwing an increased amount of sliders and effectively working the corners of the strike zone more than in previous years. Seidman speculatively lists the Blue Jays, Tigers and Nationals as fits for Papelbon. He also runs down the number of struggling, injured or already-replaced closers in the league just 16 days into the season, using that as evidence to suggest that further openings will surface this summer.
- The Phillies announced this morning that Chad Billingsley will continue a rehab assignment tomorrow night with Triple-A Lehigh Valley as he works toward his Phillies debut. To this point, Billingsley has allowed three runs on six hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings at Triple-A as he builds his pitch count and gets re-acclimated with pitching in game situations.
- Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News spoke with Dustin McGowan following yesterday’s spot start, and McGowan says he’s not sure if he’ll be asked to start again following an outing with mixed results. As Lawrence notes, McGowan did well, given the circumstances. He fired three scoreless innings to open the game after being given less than 24 hours notice that he’d be starting, but fell apart in the fourth inning. That, perhaps, should not have been unexpected, as he hadn’t thrown more than 28 pitches in a game since last May. Manager Ryne Sandberg told Lawrence that the Phillies didn’t consider promoting one of their younger arms to fill the short-term spot in the starting rotation. Billingsley, he notes, may be ready to join the club by May 8-10, but he has another two weeks remaining on his rehab assignment.
Well, the whole Phillies team probably wants out, but who is clamoring to get any of them? I know an associate asked me the other day and told me that he would trade the entire Phillies teams for the O’s current team and I was like..hmmm, let me think! =P
What are you talking about?
OK. What is a reasonable asking price for the Phillies if the Tigers want him?
I think the pricetag (in prospects) is still too high for a deal to happen.
If they would make that kind of trade, what are the odds they pull it off and papelbon is the set up guy for soria or rondon.
I would be amazed if detroit went to the effort of acquiring pap just to have him pitch set up.
I don’t honestly think the Phils would want much if the acquiring team takes on the contract.
Phillies don’t care about the salary, they want players in return for trading players. They aren’t salary dumping, they are trying to rebuild.
Need players to rebuild.
Phillies need OF and a 2B prospect.
Makes sense. I don’t see a team giving up a decent prospect for Papelbon, unless they get desperate.
I’d go with a B-Level Prospect and Int’l Bonus slot money for Pap and the rest of his 2015 contract paid for. Makes sense for the phillies, gets rid of Pap, gives them felixibility to stay under this year with their potential Ortiz signing july 2nd, and allows them to sign players again next year, and makes sense for tigers because they would’nt give up much and would have flexibility to make other moves.
Why is the $13 mill vesting option such a deterrent? This dude continues to produce, and it seems like that money is slightly below market rate.
Obviously I wouldn’t want to give up more than say my team’s 10th best prospect, but still, he’s a very good pitcher.
I don’t know enough about the clubhouse issues, though.
It’s a bit above market rate. Look at what Miller and Robertson got.
For annual value, yes, it is slightly above market rate. But you only have to pay Papelbon for 1.X seasons instead of a full four, and he has demonstrated that he is pitching at an elite level this year.
I would much rather have Papelbon for 1.7 seasons at $22 million vs. Robertson for 4 seasons and $46 million.
Again though, I haven’t followed how much of a clubhouse cancer he is that may negatively affect his value.
There’s not an indication that he is a cancer — just outspoken. He takes pride, rightly, in the progress of his successor, Ken Giles, and other developing arms in the pen. A closer doesn’t get a lot of work on a losing team. I think Papelbon couldn’t imagine a team awarding the largest closer contract ever would not protect that investment with some other sensible moves. I like Papelbon to the Nats for OF Clint Robinson and C prospect Jakson Reetz.
The Nats got burned on Soriano, if Storen falters, Barrett is the man.
As I understand the vesting option it is based on games FINISHED.
This is where it gets interesting as the Tigers already have a closer.
Can they make a deal to get Papelbon AND keep him motivated to not finish games (usually pitching the 8th, not the 9th) and therefore not get that vesting option?
If they play their cards, right, they may get Papelbon for a relative bargain.
What does that have to do with the Phillies asking price? And as bad as the Tigers bullpen is, why wouldn’t they want him back next year?
By “relative bargain”, I mean the pro-rated portion of Papelbon’s 2015 salary, with no further monetary obligation. With Nathan’s insurance dollars factored in, that is not a budget busting burden to take on.
To answer your questions:
1. Papelbon would be MORE attractive to the Tigers without the burden of a massive salary next year. (Reference/Citation/Exhibit A: Joseph Michael Nathan’s contract for 2014 and 2015).
2. He may start to falter and/or Rondon may be ready and/or Soria (or other FA Closer) may want to sign for less.
You know how much they are getting from Nathan’s insurance?
50%. Almost $5M.
A. The 2015 bullpen is not that bad.
B. Papelbon looks like the next Joe Nathan. Numbers holding in spite of declining velocity, 34 years old, huge contract.
C. There will be younger, cheaper talented options available.
I get the comparison between Nathan and Papelbon when looking at age, velocity, and salary but simply looking at how they’ve pitched over the past 5 years and there really is no comparison. Nathan was awful in 2011, 2014, and is injured this year. Papelbon has been consistently good. Yeah, he could fall off a cliff tomorrow or get injured but that can happen to any player/pitcher/closer. No comparison in my eyes.
And his contract really isn’t that bad. If I was GM, I’d still be willing to eat half of it to get a better return but the contract itself isn’t bad when you look around the league now.
It’s not a direct comparison.
Nathan was lights out when the Tigers signed him for $20 million in 2013.
Paps has a similar resume in 2015. Prospects and $26 million? I don’t think even Dombrowski has the balls to do that again so soon.
It’s not a knock on Papelbon or what the Phillies want for him.
Fair enough. Come the deadline it would be more like $19.5 mil assuming the option is picked up with a trade or kicks in on it’s own, but I still think the Phillies should kick in money to make him more of a bargain so they can get a decent return.
I understand teams having reservations with Papelbon because of his salary and clubhouse reputation, but if you take away the higher salary by kicking in money and take into consideration his on field production, then a contender should definitely look to pick him up at the deadline. He’d definitely be less of a headache on a contending team than on the worst team in baseball.
A. Tigers Bullpen has faltered in each of the past 2-3 seasons
even when they started out well. Saying its not that bad also
says its not so good as well.
B. If you were paying attention, Papelbon’s velocity has
INCREASED this year from 91 to 93 MPH, topping at 94.
But even when it decreased last year, he was a top 3 closer
C. Younger and cheaper doesn’t mean better. Paps contract
could only be for this year only, so that’s a moot point.
At this point, it should be clear that the Phillies intend to wring every ounce of value out of their players. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit for the Phillies to let Papelbon play out the season, let his option vest, then deal him. next year without the option being an issue.
There is no point for the Phillies to pay down his 2015 and 2016 salaries to pitch for someone else and get nothing or next to nothing in return while he is effective. They may as well roll the dice with him.
If the Tigers plan on using him the eighth inning, and therefore NOT allow his option to vest, they would not need any financial help.
I would not want a guy in my clubhouse who just got screwed out of $13 million. There is no on the field reason he shouldn’t be closing for someone and thus vesting.
He could pitch in SAVE only situations and still not vest, the problem comes when you allow him to come into close games that the team is either tied or losing by 1 run.
There are plenty of ways to use him properly and not have the option vest.
Detroit could upgrade their bullpen by a trade with the Phillies if they are motivated.
Since Detroit’s top prospects are like other team’s mid prospects, that has to be factored in. The #34 compensation pick packaged with two players from their top 15 prospects, a lower tier lottery ticket, could net the Tigers; Papelbon, and one of (Gomez, Garcia, Neris, McGowan, possibly DeFratus), and some 2015 cash to ease the 2015 payroll issues. Tigers would be on their own for the option year.
The one thing the Phillies have is good bullpen arms, and would eat some cash to get more prospects.
Detroit prospects are not highly rated by “experts”, but somehow they are super valuable as soon as they leave Detroit. Three recent Examples:
Adames (Rated #1 Rays prospect after leaving Detroit)
Smyly (One ESPN writer picked him to win the Cy Young THIS YEAR)
Devon Travis (An OPS of 1.160 with the Blue Jays as a second baseman)
Tells me that the “Experts” don’t evaluate Detroit talent properly.
I do have to chuckle each time I people declare gloom and doom because of declining velocity. Seidman says that Paps has been dealing with declining velocity since the beginning of 2014 and that is poppycock. He has been dealing with it since he joined the Phillies. His velocity when he joined the Phillies was down by 1 mph, from 93.8 to 92.8. Last year he sat at 91.2 and that is where he is again this year. He did have some bumpy patches as he adapted to his decreased velocity but despite some of his quirkiness he is a pitcher, not just a thrower. Entering his fourth season with the Phillies 2.38 ERA, 109 saves, 1.003 WHIP 161 ERA+. That declining velocity sure has hurt him. While my comment is related specifically to Paps it could actually be applied to many other pitchers throughout the years. All too often people declare it is the end the the line for a pitcher when his velocity declines for one reason… Too many people are hung up on velocity.
Yet hard throwing guys who cannot throw their secondary pitches for strikes get hammered by guys sitting on the 95 MPH FB.
I think part of the reason people are so fascinated by it is that his fastball use to be a great strikeout pitch, and because of the decline in velocity, they don’t think it is as effective anymore. That may be true, but he also has a splitter and other pitches which are highly effective. In a sense, he has moved away from being a fastball pitcher, like Chapman right now, and has become more reliant on his good breaking stuff, like Uehara has to do. Having said that, his contract is kinda hard to move as it is quite expensive with the option year, and his attitude stinks. Philly should just keep him IMO as I don’t think the return for a guy of his caliber will ever be there.
I think you mistake genuine concern for gloom and doom. While declining velocity does not guarantee immediate failure, it is a warning sign. Some navigate through it for a long time, some a short time, some retire.
Basically my point is this…. The idea that Paps is done has been expressed on comment boards since his first year with the Phillies because of declining velocity. All too often people see declining velocity and instead of waiting for a bit, instead of viewing actual results, instead of watching to see if the pitcher adapts it’s almost immediate forecasts of an early demise. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the statements over the last 3+ years…. He’s just lucky, he has lost his fastball this is the end. I’ve seen are not just with Paps but others as well. I do agree that sometimes it is the end, some pitchers never learn to adjust. My chuckles come from the fact that it has been 3+ years and the same statements are being regurgitated. Eventually he will decline, every player does, and at that point someone on the boards will say….see, I told you so.
Ah, I see your pain.
Who cares, management got the team they ask for by making dumb deals. Have Ryan Howard celebration day and send him home. He’s a liability on offense or defense. Does anyone think Ryne Sandberg is getting the most out of the team he has? Yes – I know they have no talent but….he’s teaching “fundamentals” to professional players….really? Based on projections this team will be above 100+ loses.