Most teams are about 9% through their season at this point, and it’s time for our first midseason update of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. These players project to reach free agency after this season.
As a reminder, these rankings represent the earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. Justin Upton. Upton, 27, is off to a fine start for the second place Padres. Not coincidentally, the Friars are averaging more than 5.3 runs per game in the early going, tops in the National League. Nothing seems to be cooking on the extension front, and a free agent contract worth $250MM or more could be in play this winter.
2. David Price. Price jumps up a spot after allowing just one earned run in his first 22 1/3 innings. Before that, some low-level extension discussions with the Tigers occurred in late March. Price is willing to continue talking contract into the season and seems to have a number in mind that could result in a fairly quick deal if the Tigers reach it. Logically, that number figures to be in the $200MM range.
3. Johnny Cueto. Cueto moves up a spot as well after a trio of seven-inning outings. As he moves further from his 2013 shoulder strain, Cueto moves closer to Price in earning power. His Reds are hanging in with a .500 record, though a midseason trade at least seems viable. A deadline deal would make Cueto ineligible for a qualifying offer, though at ace prices the loss of a draft pick is a secondary concern for suitors.
4. Jason Heyward. It’s not fair to bump Heyward down two spots because of 53 lousy plate appearances, but I feel that if the season ended today, Price and Cueto would earn bigger contracts. Batting second in the order for the Cardinals, Heyward is at .192/.208/.327 on the young season.
5. Ian Desmond. On the plus side, Desmond has cut his strikeout rate considerably in his first 14 games, an 18% rate that would represent a full-season career best. On the other hand, Desmond has made eight errors in his first 125 1/3 innings in the field. Surely that pace will lessen, but he still has a good shot at 30 on the season. Even with today’s advanced fielding metrics, 30 errors could be hard for a team owner to ignore if Desmond’s price tag exceeds $150MM.
6. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann’s early numbers are off after an April 13th Fenway Park drubbing, and his velocity is down a few ticks from April of last year. Still, every pitcher is allowed the occasional clunker, and Zimmermann has about 29 starts left to go.
7. Alex Gordon. Royals manager Ned Yost intends to exercise extra caution with Gordon in at least the season’s first month due to his December wrist surgery. 11 games don’t tell us much, but it will be worth monitoring whether the wrist saps Gordon’s power at all this year.
8. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is off to a strong start, and seems capable of piling up a huge RBI total batting fifth or sixth in the Tigers’ potent lineup. He is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won’t turn 30 until October, and seems a candidate to move several more spots up this list.
9. Zack Greinke. Greinke has three quality starts in three tries this year, and not much has changed with his status. I still expect him to opt out of his remaining three years and $71MM after the season.
10. Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija’s White Sox debut in Kansas City was a forgettable outing, but he has now turned in consecutive gems. He and Greinke have each fallen a spot only because of Cespedes’ earning power.
In news that was music to the ears of Samardzija, Greinke, Zimmermann, and others, the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension earlier this month. The contract covers his age 27-30 seasons. Though part of the calculus is Porcello’s youth and the deal being shortened to four years, if he’s worth $20.625MM per season, that bodes well for next winter’s crop of free agent hurlers.
Cueto leads all 2016 free agents with 0.8 wins above replacement early on, though the Dodgers’ Howie Kendrick and the Yankees’ Chris Young have matched him. Young’s rate stats this year will be skewed, however, if he continues getting more than 40% of his plate appearances against southpaws.
Braves…sign some good players. PLEASE
More likely to trade some good player.
True…but with all the 1 year players we signed, and will leave, we need players. I think we have a budget to do so because of all the players we traded this past offseason..
i am not a braves fan because when they played the cardinals in the wild card game in 2012 their fans showed how classless they are by throwin crap on the field. with that said i am a baseball fan. think about it. john hart is building a power house of a team for 2017 when they move into that new stadium. shelby miller is a future cy young winner. braves have the worst fans in baseball
So is the point of your comment that I’m a classless fan because I want my team to become better?
And I agree that Braves fan should have done better expressing anger and that throwing stuff on the the field isn’t right, and I’m not by any means defending the fans actions that day, but the umpires made poor judging the play and horrible reffing in a important situation to fans like me is very angering.
U got Nick Markakis, he’s good for at least 150 singles
He’s exactly the kind of veteran presence needed to lead this team to 88 losses.
Remember when the ESPN guys were going gaga over Heyward opening night, saying he was fixed? Good times.
I never knew he was broken but that’s ESPN for ya.
That is because you know nothing but hype about him.
Yep, two weeks is a really useful sample size.
More useful than 1 AB, which was more my point but thanks.
I don’t even look at player stats until about 6 weeks into the season. Announcer’s hot takes are definitely annoying though, I’ll agee.
heyward isnt taking as many pitches in the number two spot as he did in the leadoff spot. hes more aggressive. as soon as he figures out how to shorten his swing he’ll be just fine. he will start going on a terror
Very interested to see who the Giants spend the money they saved on Pablo/Lester/Shields/Tomas, and anyone else who didn’t sign with them that I’m forgetting about on.
Agreed. I can’t think of a team that has come in 2nd on more free agents. And next year is an even year.
The money they didn’t spend on those guys was spent elsewhere….
Bringing back Peavy and Vogelsong on short contracts and adding Aoki for cheap should not prevent them from being able to spend next year. Lincecum, Hudson, and Vogelsong are all FA’s after the season, along with McGehee, Arias, and Aoki if they don’t pick up his option. Anyway you look at it they are going to have to spend some money. It’s not every year you get a FA class with this much quality starting pitching.
Hopefully the M’s management sees that they could use one of the possible outfield options out there (personally, wouldn’t mind Justin Upton since Heyward is just going to probably cost way too much). Of course, knowing anything, they will just trot Ackley back out there…sigh.
Ack is improving, I don’t think they need to do much this offseason
Considering the Yankees did not sign one major free agent last year, hopefully they sign one of the top five next year
Yeah, they only spent 90 million on Andrew Miller and Chase Headley last year. Bummer of an off-season.
They resigned Chase and got a reliever. So actually is was not a big off season.
They were the 5th highest spending team in baseball in the offseason.
“a reliever” he’s a nasty and dominating pitcher who is off to a great start at closer so far.
Don’t forget Drew and Young.
the yankees are to worried about paying the salaries of the washed ups that are weighing their payroll. hint cc
Can someone fill me in as to why Cespedes is ineligible for a QO? I thought since he was traded before the season he’d be fine
my understanding is that it was part of his original contract–no QO could be offered. It’s not related to a midseason trade.
I’m going to be interested what happens after the season with Cespedes. If I remember correctly, his contract stated that he couldn’t be offered arbitration at the end of his contract. I guess it would all depend on how the clause was worded.
He can’t be offered arbitration and he can’t be offered a Qualifying Offer. He will be a free agent.
His original four-year contract with the A’s came with the condition that he would be released at the end of it, as otherwise he’d still be eligible for arbitration and controlled for another two seasons. Since he’s released at season’s end, he can’t get the QO.
It was some contractual demand he and his agent made when he was originally signed by Oakland. I’m surprised more players don’t try it.
Yep, Boston overpays for Porcello, and everyone else has to ante up, now, too.
it’s not true. I would never compare Porcello’s contract to Price’s or Cueto’s due to the enormous age difference.
Well, a top tier pitcher like Price is getting his “Scherzer-deal” anyway…and I wouldn’t touch that.
Hope the Sox can keep dodging those contracts.
Sox will get Hamels. I am absolutely convinced that the Phillies will settle for Margot (who’s stock is rising pretty fast, as expected) and one of Owens/E-Rod as centerpiece.
Porcello’s #’s are very pedestrian. BOS definitely overpaid….to have a staff of #3 starters.
Porcello is only 26. He is a ground ball pitcher in an infield that will have a gold glove second baseman and a rapidly improving Bogaerts. Who will he at first base long term in a question but assuming Sandavol stays at third, that is a good defensive infield. Realize that market value keeps rising and 20 million for a guy that hasnt reached his prime and has number 2 potential could be a steal in 5 years when the average number three starter is making 20 a year anyway.
There are *a lot* of things that need to go right for that contract to go from an overpay to “a steal in 5 years”. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but that is a lot of pressure to put on the guy.
I agree but if there is a guy who can do it in Boston I think it is Porcello
The Sox don’t view Porcello as an overpay – it was far more important for them to get just 4 years rather than a six- or seven-year contract. The AAV may be higher, but Boston can afford it and being saddled with a long contract for a pitcher is something the organizaion seems to be trying to avoid.
Sure it’s true. Any time a player signs a contract it affects the contracts of every player in that same position (i.e. SP, RP, 1B etc.). Age is a factor but it’s not that huge because experience and history are also factors. Let’s say that Pirates inexplicably signed Polanco to an extension that averaged $26m/year. I can guarantee you that Upton’s agent would be commanding $28-$30m/year because he has a more established track record and would also cite such things as veteran leadership. Porcello’s contract raised the bar. There will be a minimum of 3 $200m contracts coming up. You can bank on that.
By the way…. The Phillies aren’t going to settle for anything less than a stellar package.
Porcello is 26 and Cueto is 28. Where is the big age difference between those two? Cueto is on another level quality wise but the age difference would not make a big difference in the contract. Both are young. Price is 31. That is an age difference.
Also, I can definitely see the Sox parting with Margot as their outfield is already set with Castillo, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley as well as guys that will be acquired in the future by the draft, trade, FA, etc. But I do not see the Sox parting with Owens Rodriguez for Hamels, an older starter who has a bad track record against AL teams. Owens and Rodriguez both have the potential to be Hamels if not better. I personally would rather the Sox sign Cueto or Zimmerman to a big contract.
Price’s contract had only Scherzers to compare to before. Don’t kid yourself thinking that Porcello’s wont affect it also.
A $250 million dollar deal for J.Upton would be crazy.
Assuming its a 10 yr deal, committing $25 mill a year to Upton has the potential to be a real albatross on the back end.
Yes, he’ll still fairly young when you get him, but in the post-PED era I would be careful with extremely long contracts.
I’m not wild about giving a long-term $125M-plus deal to any of those players. Were I a GM, I’d sign a few reasonable players that can gut out decent production, and put the rest of the money in my scouting department and farm system. It’s becoming less and less cost justifiable to give out contracts like those expected for players that have either never been true impact players, or were but are going downhill.
Am I missing something? Why do people think Justin Upton could get a $250m contract? Though he has a high ceiling, he’s had only flashes of super-stardom; he seems to me to be only an above average outfielder. Is it because he’d be 28 and expected to enter his prime and thus reach his ceiling?
My thoughts exactly. He seems like a 6+ yr albatross contract waiting to happen. Someone will be stupid to give it to him.
I do think someone will overpay. Someone always does. Plus, I think Upton will have a very good season in SD and that will inflate his value.
People like his ceiling, and his relatively high floor. He is a great target for a team needing a bat, as the market next year for hitters in general is relatively weak. So combine all those things with his age, he is gonna get paid.
Do you think he’ll surpass 200 million?
He might, but it’ll be on an 8-year deal.
Even 8 yrs and $200 mill would be high, IMO.
I see his AAV a tick under $25 mill ($24) and I’d say 7 yrs.
My guess is 7 yrs, $168 mill, about one-third less than predicted.
I don’t see the Cardinals even offering half of that amount. I can’t imagine anyone offering that much, I think 6 years 150M would even be a stretch.
Predictions of where the top FA’s land?
Isn’t $250M really steep?
For Justin Upton…absolutely. He isn’t Trout. He isn’t McCutchen. He is an above average defender w. some pop. I’d rather get 2 guys at the next step down.
Or 3 or 4.
250M for Justin Upton? Do they have a spell over owners? Not worth it. Lower ticket prices and stop with dumb contracts!
Ticket prices literally have nothing to do with player contracts
My understanding (and I could be wrong) is that player salaries and team functions are paid for by ad revenue. Everything else goes into the owners’ pockets. Clean profit.
Yeah this off-season the braves Will be one year away from opening the new park and their are some really good players in free agency this year so hopefully we could sign a few of them.
I watched David Price a lot when he was with the Rays. When he’s on he’s as good as any pitcher in MLB. But he can often be off, and you wonder if it’s the same guy. In the last year with the Rays the off games happened more frequently, then accelerated with the Tigers. He was simply awful tonight – but that could be blamed on problems gripping the cold slick ball. Nevertheless, a not so great hitting Yankee team took batting practice off of him.
I’m not so sure he’s going to have many $200M offers – I can’t see Friedman doing that with a Dodger payroll he’s trying to get in line, and he knows Price well. Maybe the Yankees, but they’ll just replace one CC Sabathia overpay with another LH. There will be one desperate team out there with money, too early to figure out the candidates at this point.
Nice article. Goes to show, Tim Dierkes is like the Steve Jobs of baseball. Too successful. I wish all the articles were written this well.
Upton,Cueto, Hayward, Zimmerman, Desmond, Price, Gordon, Cespedes, greinke, Samardjia
My mets are terrible with free agents. Let’s just groom our own players.
The gap between the minimum salary and these contracts is galactic, and growing; but the difference between replacement level talent and most of these players isn’t half as large. If a player isn’t a world-crusher, he isn’t worth it.