While many have been quick to connect the Yankees to the top names on the market, as is the case in most offseasons, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News hear that the team has no intention to pursue any of the “Big Three” starting pitchers — Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields — or top third baseman Pablo Sandoval.
Instead, the Daily News duo continues, the Yankees are more focused on bringing back a pair of their own free agents: Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy. The team loves Headley’s glove at third base and views the returning Alex Rodriguez as more of a DH candidate at his age, per Feinsand and Madden. The team could act quickly and aggressively to retain the two. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pegged Headley for a four-year, $48MM contract while I predicted a three-year, $36MM deal for McCarthy.) The Yankees, per the report, don’t want to add any more $100MM+ contracts to their books, although the name of Hanley Ramirez, who figures to top the century mark, is curiously absent from the list of players they won’t be pursuing.
Also of note for Yankees fans is the update within this piece on David Robertson, whom Feinsand and Madden hear is already receiving interest from at least six clubs. Robertson is expected to turn down the Yankees’ qualifying offer and could land a three- or four-year deal on the open market.
Of course, it’s worth looking back to last season when multiple reports indicated that the Yankees would spend judiciously in an attempt to eventually get the team’s payroll below the $189MM luxury tax threshold. That clearly didn’t happen, as the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran to huge multi-year deals while also adding veterans Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts and Brendan Ryan on smaller deals. All told, they spent roughly half a billion dollars last winter.
None of that is meant to discredit the information provided by Feinsand and Madden, but rather to serve as a reminder that priorities can change. Still, for the time being, the Yankees’ early modus operandi appears to be pursuing mid-level free agents in an attempt to return the team to the playoffs after a two-year absence while also maintaining some long-term flexibility.
“Release the Cashman!”
But seriously, I am hoping they stick to this. The only pitcher I wouldn’t mind them signing is Jon Lester because he has no QO associated with him. He will probably get a lesser contract than Sherzer, and Shields is a no regardless of contract and QO. As far as Hanley goes…no. I’ll take Cabrera or Drew.
You’d prefer Stephen Drew or Asdrubal Cabrera at SS to Hanley Ramirez?
Hanley Ramirez won’t last with the Yankees, Girardi will get sick of his attitude.
All day. His attitude didn’t work in Boston, it won’t work in NY. He is definitely an LA guy, it’s just different. The injury history scares me, the contract scares me, the fact he is not a real SS scares me and he has a QO attached to him kills it. Is he an upgrade offensively, definitely. Is it worth the rest of the baggage? No sir.
LoL, Hanley played like 2 games in Boston at the end of 2005 before getting shipped out of town with Anibal Sanchez for Beckett and Lowell. I wouldn’t sign him to play short or even 3rd at what he wants but their was no attitude in Boston; we barely even met him.
Would you be happier if I said Miami? There were a number of reports after the trade that he had some attitude problem, but I chalk that up to a young kid. However, that persisted in Miami. Regardless of their being an attitude problem or not, the rest of the concerns are very real.
Wouldn’t you be upset that you’re stuck on the Marlins?
I wouldn’t because I’d at least know within a year or 2 I’d be gone.
But you were being groomed in Boston as the “next Nomar” for a strong team with a need at SS, and then you get traded to the bottom of the league while earning MLB minimum wage and playing with AA players in the MLB.
At least say
AAAA players. They deserve more respect.
If you were AAA value or better, you were traded. Just off the top of my head the Marlins traded away / let go since they won in 2003 and around when Hanley showed up: Dontrelle Willis, Mike Lowell, Miguel Cabrera, Julio Lugo (good at the time), Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Derek Lee, Adrain Gonzalez, Juan Pierre.
“AA players” like Miguel Cabrera, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez…
None of those players projected as just AA players, which is why they were traded and not kept for the long haul. Additionally, Anibal Sanchez came from the Red Sox in the Hanley Ramirez trade.
I wish I could thumbs up that comment multiple times.
I think any of the big ticket players have to go to big ticket or market teams that spend the money.
I’ve got Hanley going to the Tigers!
With Dombrowski you never know but i really cant see it.
As bad as Castellanos defense was, i think they’ll stick with him instead of shifting him to the OF.
Yesterday I was saying Hanley should take the QO. I got baked. With all of this talk it could be the way to go, but it won’t be. Play a full season in LA and get a bigger deal next year? Then again, if he plays only 120 games, he could be in trouble.
If he wants a deal that’s more than 5 years he should look for it now, not when he’s a year older.
Fair enough. Cruz wanted 5 years last year and look what it got him.
Completely agree. Girardi would grab Hanley by the shirt collar and give him what for a la Scott Olsen. Joe does not have the patience for that kind of indifference. If you thought Cano was bad, then Hanley is even worse.
Hanley’s physical will be to hustle down the first base line.
More disastrous contract
Drew at $4 million or Hanley at $150 million?
MB923 at $4MM would be less disastrous.
I think Hanley is one player that won’t get the contract he is projected to get, more like 4/56.
Not with the number of teams and names of teams that could upgrade at SS. He’ll get big bucks, and whoever signs him will probably regret it before he’s a FA again.
He’s the best position player (offensively) on the market. He’s probably going to get 2-3x the amount of money and I’d say at least 7 years.
Thats the thing isnt it, with Hanley with Scherzer/Lester, i could go on and on, all the top tier free agents will end up with contracts longer than they should really get because otherwise, how would you sign them, from a teams point of view?
Ideally youd have Scherzer on 4 years 100m, Hanley on 3 years 60m, but theyll both no doubt be aiming for double those amounts, because they can, because thats how the madness of Free Agency works, and thats probably in part why we love it.
I mean, it’s hard to see $4M/y for a starting SS being “disastrous.” And it’s hard to see a $150m contract for anyone not being disastrous.
I’d say A-Rod’s first contract was well worth $150 mil (technically let’s say 2001-2010). And don’t be surprised if Kershaw, Trout and King Felix live up to theirs. Also, Jeter’s from 01-10.
I personally think if anyone gives Hanley $150M that GM is gone before Hanley is. Who is going to pay him that kind of money? The Redsox had Hanley twice and don’t want him perhaps? The Yankees have said they are done with $100M contracts (right now)? Who else? Anaheim? No. Texas? No. Detroit? No. I’m with slider32… 4/$60M +/- $5M.
There’s no way the best bat on the market in an era where offense is declining is only going to get $60 million. I’d be stunned if he got less than $100 million.
You paying him? Who is driving the market for a SS who shouldn’t play SS and has injury history? Tell me one twam that could spend $100M on him.
Yankees. Do you want more than one team? I can provide that as well.
Please do.
Red Sox could use a 3B or SS, depending on where Xander ends up.
Dodgers could use a SS.
Giants could use a 3B if Sandoval leaves.
Phillies could use an upgrade at SS.
Cubs could use a 3B.
White Sox could use a 3B.
Tigers could use a SS.
Wait, what? The Phillies need an upgrade at SS from Rollins, who was miles better than Hanley defensively, and not that much worse offensively? Especially since his legacy is pretty close to Ripken’s was in BAL?
Not to mention: their top prospect is a SS who’s likely to reach AA in 2015, and they’ve got a pretty solid CF prospect with the ability to play SS as well.
You lost me at comparing Rollins to Ripken. Sorry, not close.
Any team in the league can if they wanted to literally. I don’t want to hear small market talk either. There are multiple small market clubs that have a player making 9 figures. Cinci (Votto), Tampa (Longoria), Colorado (Tulo), M’s (King Felix and Cano), etc
I even asked Steve Adams in the chat over or under $100 mil for Hanley. He said over, significantly.
That depends… Are you saying Drew for 2/$4 million or 3/$4 million, because after the year he had and how he declined during the year, he’s not going to get a 1/$4 million offer
Considering Hanley isn’t a SS, is injury prone, is a guaranteed albatross contract, and will be blocked at 3B by Headley (hopefully), I’d prefer Drew. Hanley is basically an exact replica of A-Rod. They’re both injury prone 3B albatrosses who cannot handle 3B but have a good bat. He makes close to no sense for the Yankees. A platoon of Drew/Ryan provides us with amazing defense everyday, a serviceable platooned bat, and costs next to nothing.
I see the Yanks signing Headley and Lowrie with Cashman having more say!
Also just as insurance, they’ll sign a veteran utility player (Ellis? Furcal? Hannahan?) to spell both Headley and Lowrie, but also to fill in if the injury bug catches up to either again. Cheap and required insurance, unless A-Rod can still play 3B or SS in a pinch.
I think Ryan and Prado are great utility players, heck Prado is a starting type player. Id rather put the bulk of the money into pitching maybe relief pitcher.
Over the last 5 years, Hanley has played in 605 games and posted a 13.3 WAR. He has given an erratic effort to say the least, and to say his focus wanes from time to time would be a vast understatement. He is also a horrendous shortstop which is why his WAR over the last 5 years has indicated a very overrated player. You might get a good year or two out of him, but there’s also a pretty good chance whoever signs him is going to be eating a lot of cash. You couldn’t get a more opposite player to take over for Jeter.
Rather selective there with the 5 year WAR, its easy to go the other way and say over the last two years hes produced 8.9 WAR, top handful in the league over that time.
Questionable attitude? Sure. But hes also a lifetime .300 hitter with an .873 OPS. If his heads screwed on hes dynamite, if its not you could get anything i agree.
Its a risk someone will no doubt take.
It’s a much easier risk to take if you don’t need him to play SS. He’s really bad at it, and it eats away his value. You guys would be a better fit if you cleared out 3B for him.
Hanley’s UZR last year was worse than Jeter’s. And I mean Jeter’s in his final season, coming off an injury, at 40. So. That might not be pretty.
Forget Hanley!
Yes. I would prefer Drew over Hanley Ramirez. There are shortstops out there that can be traded for as well. Sign Drew, if it doesn’t work out look around at the trade deadline and see if the D-Backs will trade one of their surplus shortstops.
Much rather go with Cabrera or Lowrie, Drew has already failed with the Yanks.
Maybe. I’d like to see what he can do with a normal Spring Training and playing at shortstop rather than at second.
They’d both cost a whole lot less than H-Ram in terms of money and years. They aren’t as good combined, but, I can see where John is coming from on this.
Yes because Hanley Ramirez is, at best, a shortstop for one more season and then will need to move to third base. River Ave Blues thinks Ramirez could look for a Jacoby Ellsbury-like 7 year deal. No thank you. The Yankees don’t need to be handing any more of those out to players over 30.
Lester will definitely get a better contract than Scherzer. Lester is overall better and doesn’t have a draft pick tied to him, making him the more attractive pitcher, meaning most teams would make an offer to him rather than Scherzer, which causes a bidding war.
I never underestimate the Scott Boras factor. That’s my logic. 🙂
Lester being better is highly debatable. Scherzer has the far superior K/9 and better career FIP. Lester’s stock was heading downward before this past season while Scherzer followed up his Cy Young season with a very good season of his own.
“Lester’s stock was heading downward before this past season”
Lester was the World Series MVP if Ortiz didn’t bat .600 the year before…He’s also as close to a lock as you can get for 15+ wins and 200+ IP. I don’t see the downward trend.
His 2012 was not good and his 2013 was only a little above average. He pitched excellent in the playoffs but you can’t ignore the regular season. Also, ‘wins’ aren’t a good measure. xFIP was around 4 for 2012-2013 and his K rate was declining. His stock was heading downward, but he bounced back with a vengeance in 2014.
The original argument was 2013 Lester had a declining stock. Statistically, I’d disagree. More importantly, asking myself if I’d want him on my team (which I would), I’d disagree. Pointing out 2012 as a poor season is fine, but it’s the anomaly in his career, not a trend or beginning of the end. His FIP was around 4 for only 2012, not 2013 as well (3.59). Additionally, why is K/9 so heavily favored? There are pitchers that aren’t strikeout pitchers that do just fine – they’re called ground ball and fly ball pitchers.
Hitting again on this 2012 nonsense – I can also point out that the Yankees signed a great power threat in Ellsbury, because he hit 32HR in 2011.
I know what the original argument was and my points speak directly to it. I’m taking about xFIP, not FIP, which is a better indicator and was indeed around 4. And it’s not that I’m favoring K/9, it’s that compared to himself, he literally was declining. His 2012 and 2013 seasons were not as good as his previous ones, ie his stock was declining. But he came back and posted one of his best seasons in 2014, so it’s kind of moot.
Well I can’t help you if you’re judging him on wins. His ERA in 2012-2013 was average or worse, his K rate dropped significantly and he was putting men on base at a greater clip. By most accounts his play dropped off until he rebounded during the world series run in 2013.
Wonder how Scherzer would have done in Fenway his whole career?
I don’t know, how would Lester do with Detroit’s defense?
Just to add fuel to this pointless argument of how would they do elsewhere – For Lester, it’s not an earned run when there’s an error for a runner to reach base. For Scherzer, he’s a strikeout pitcher, so the park wouldn’t be a huge factor.
Additionally, Fenway is pretty “fair” even though it has odd dimensions and the Monster. Many fly balls are home runs, and many line drives are singles. CF and RF are wide open with the exception of Pesky Pole, reducing the HR numbers but increasing the doubles and triples.
You didn’t really add fuel as dump sand on this pointless hypothetical argument.
Excellent.
The thing about Hanley is if the Yankees aren’t giving the big $$ contract, who is? Hanley is another 30 year old with injury history. No one should offer him more than about a 4 year deal at $15M to $18M a year. Anyone that goes over that should lose their GM job.
The Dodgers don’t need Hanley with Gordon, Guerrero and Turner. I don’t see Boston spending big on a SS with Bogaerts ready to roll.
I just don’t see a market for Hanley and I think the Yankees should wait him out. 4/$68M.
Guerrero is unproven , Dee Gordon isn’t a very good hitter, and Turner has never started a full season.
Doesn’t mean the Dodgers spend big on him. They need to shed contracts, not add them.
I’d love to see Lester with the Yankees, but they would pay exorbitantly for him. Lester rejected $80 million/4 with Boston. We are probably looking at something like $140 million/6 for him. Ouch.
Didnt we hear this last winter…then look what happened, $500m later.
The Yanks rotation is not up to the level it needs to be and im sure they want it to be.
With so much coming off the books, I just cant see them not being in on at least one of Scherzer or Lester, i just cant…maybe they’ve turned over a more frugal leaf…but i doubt it.
They have almost nothing coming off the books and they had the best pitching in baseball last year with the same players they currently have minus Kuroda. It’s just simply not going to happen. And it won’t happen in 2015 either. Maybe 2016 since Teixeira, Beltran, and possibly Sabathia will be gone. The reason it happened last year was a combination of a ton of payroll coming off and the need for a bonafide ace. Tanaka was a can’t miss. Scherzer and Lester are easy to pass on.
Eh?
The best pitching in Baseball…they were 18th in team ERA, how do those two equate?
Because ERA is outdated and severely flawed, and I did exaggerate a little though I believe they were at least in the top 5 when using non-terrible stats.
Of course ERA is severely flawed, but by no metric were they the best in Baseball, or close to it. 9th by WHIP, 15th by FIP, and 10th by ERA+.
They are nowhere near the top level and need to improve it.
Well they were 4th in xFIP and 2nd in WAR behind the Nationals. (again, no where near the best though). They had very good pitching, maybe a top 5-10, but obviously that ain’t even close to #1.
Fair point, but WAR being a counting stat isnt really indicative of a teams performance just by adding it all up to one lump sum.
I would peg them as a good staff, top 10, but in need of solid improvement to become one of the best.
They’re already 3rd best. That counts as “one of the best”.
If you use xFIP as the be all and end all, yes.
Many people dont.
Just to correct you, they’re tied for 3rd in xFIP.
Tanaka’s periphs are through the roof, if that tear won’t heal and he goes away for a year their ranking goes way down. They also got a typical strong year from Kuroda, if he retires or leaves they have a lot to replace.
About your post, (apparently deleted) where you said any team’s pitching suffers when their best pitcher is hurt, I think you are glossing over the fact that Tanaka is now a huge injury risk. He threw over 1,300 innings in Japan in his 18-24 year old seasons, has a confirmed UCL tear, and got waffled in his final start where he looked like a shell of what he was earlier in the year. He is a huge question mark moving forward. And Kuroda was solid. 200 iP of 1.13 WHIP is not easy to replace, and that’s an understatement.
Kuroda was very mediocre using actual worthwhile stats. Tanaka is as much an injury risk as every other pitcher in baseball.
Really? I would consider a pitcher closing in on 1,500 IP at age 25 with a tear in his UCL a bit more of a risk than many other pitchers, but that’s just me.
I don’t go off of conjecture. There are plenty of players who have no innings on their arms and simply cannot stay healthy. There are plenty of players who have tons of innings and are as durable as can be through their late 30s. Innings is completely irrelevant to me. If he has recovered from last season, then the rest is irrelevant.
So the fact that a pitcher has been diagnosed with a UCL tear is irrelevant in terms of his health moving forward. Got it.
Being that he recovered, yes.
He didn’t “recover”. He rested, took the plasma injection, came back and got shelled. The UCL is still partially torn, the only way he will “recover” is if he gets Tommy John. A few pitchers have pitched with a partial tear, I know Wainwright did for a few years but he ended up getting the surgery eventually. A vast majority of pitchers with a partial tear end up in Dr. Andrews waiting room. Probably 95%, if not more. Every single one of his patients started out with a partial tear.
They got an untypical weak year from Kuroda and if you remove anyone’s top pitcher from the team it hurts them. That argument applies to literally all 30 teams.
If you know about FIP then I have to assume you intentionally skipped over xFIP. Per xFIP they’re tied for 3rd in all of baseball. If you like pitching WAR (admittedly I do not), there in 2nd in all of baseball. Their pitching is tremendous and you’ve been dodging the best objective stats to try and prove otherwise which is evident by you first citing ERA despite being a saber guy, and then citing FIP while being silent on xFIP.
Theres little to choose between FIP/xFIP, its a subjective matter which you prefer, but i take your point.
Team ERA is indeed not a great indicator, that we can agree on.
If you hadnt wildly exaggerated about them being the best in Baseball, none of this would have happened 😉
Lol sorry…they’re arguably a top 5 by going off of 2014. Hopefully that is acceptable.
I will agree they weren’t the best in baseball. That’s a bit silly. But using ERA for a team that plays in a bandbox, is kind of silly too.
Agree – but see my post below re: ERA+.
I see it now, fair enough.
Now see my post about xFIP and your favorite, pitching WAR.
Pitching WAR isn’t my favorite. I really don’t have a favorite to be honest.
Nor do i, so what i try to do is get a good mix of metrics and get an overall view.
One thing we can say with certainty – the Yanks are not numero uno.
They are if you pick and choose stats, every team is number one! Needless to say, like every team, including the Giants, the Yankees need to upgrade. Additionally, there’s no cap, so why does money need to come off the books in order to spend?
Yeah right, I’ll believe it when I see it.
As a Yankee fan, this wouldn’t upset me in the least. Will any of those guys help the team? Absolutely, but it doesn’t guarantee success. In 5-6 years, Lester, Scherzer and Sandoval contracts are likely going to look like Sabathia’s, Teixeira’s and Ellsbury’s (in the near future) (not mentioning A-Rod because his contract is by far the worst).
As of now though, I don’t exactly buy what they’re saying right now, but if they re-sign Headley and McCarthy (along with a couple of other moves like a new SS and a good reliever if Robertson leaves), I won’t be all that disappointed.
Something the Yankees need to do more – Give their kids a chance!!!
Ellsbury currently has a good contract. And A-Rod’s contract is better than Teixeira and Sabathia, though all 3 are awful and you’re correct that all of those players are guarantees to become an albatross.
I edited the part about Ellsbury, I meant towards the end of it
And how is A-Rod’s contract better than Sabathia’s or Texeira’s?
Because A-Rod is solidly above replacement level when he’s not suspended while the other 2 are barely above replacement. I’d take a $10m overpay over an $18m overpay.
A-Rod has put up a 20.1 WAR since 2008
Sabathia has put up a 24.9 WAR since 2009
Teixeria has put up a 15.8 WAR since 2009
All in the same number of seasons because A-Rod was suspended all of last year so technically his is from 2008-2013 whereas Tex/CC is from 2009-2014. And Tex’s contract is about $90 million less than A-Rod’s, so even though his WAR is over 4 less than A-Rod in that span, his contract is still not as bad as A-Rod’s.
CC’s is/was by far the best. And the cheapest too.
I’m not doubting that over the full life of the deal, my statement may not be correct. But the fact is that Sabathia and Teixeira had become completely worthless 2-3 years ago while A-Rod still had some value. I’m talking about now, not the full deal.
That said, I bet if you look back to the first 4 years for each player, A-Rod accumulated far more WAR. It’s completely skewed to use A-Rod’s later years and the other two earlier years.
And lastly, pitching WAR isn’t a good stat.
For the first 4 years of their deals
Tex – 14.8
A-Rod – 17.7
CC – 22.1
Arod put up 29 fWAR in his first four season with NYY, age 28-31
Tex 14.8 fWAR, age 29-32
CC 22.1 fWAR, age 28-31
You have to take age into account. NYY signed Arod to a deal that was far too long but he was a very productive player in his prime, more productive than CC or Tex.
Im no Arod fan but you are comparing Arod’s age 32 to 38 season with Tex’ age 28 to 34 and CC’s age 27 to 33 seasons. Of course the younger stars performed better. Arod’s 2004-2007 seasons (age 28 to 31) were far more productive than CC or Tex’s at the same age.
It not really fair to arbitrarily exclude Arod’s two MVP seasons with New York
I’m just simply responding to his statement of “That said, I bet if you look back to the first 4 years for each player, A-Rod accumulated far more WAR”
See below, in his first 4 years with NYY Arod was more productive than CC or Tex according to WAR.
And those years were not under his current contract which is why I’m not talking about that. The argument was who’s contract was best/worst. What A-Rod did in his first 4 years in NY has nothing to do with this contract.
CC practically signed a second deal too, remember? Since signing his extension under threat of opt out in 2011 CC has produced 7.4 f WAR in 3 seasons. Arod first 3 of new deal 13.7 fWAR.
I did forget about that, but I think his extension was only a 1 year extension overall if I”m not mistaken (with a vesting option which likely will vest if he has no elbow issues). I honestly wouldn’t compare a 1 year extension to CC with a terrible 10 year contract with A-Rod.
My responses to you would pretty much mirror the responses from whokilledtherallymonkey so I’ll just say “read his posts”.
Looks like you covered all my responses. Well done…thanks for saving me the trouble of typing on my phone!
We were discussing A-Rod’s contract which is 2008-2017. I figured what A-Rod did from 2004-2007 was moot since those seasons were not in his original contract.
Good point. But my point still stands, I’m discussing which contract I’d rather have now: a player who is still productive though overpaid, or two players who at least 2 years ago through today are teetering on replacement level.
If you want my honest opinion, I’d take Tex. 1 – He’s probably the most healthy of the 3, 2 – Contract cost way less, and 3 – Ends the soonest. .
I don’t think they are because contracts in baseball are going to much more expensive as more money is coming in. I feel like in 5-6 years 20 million dollar contracts are going to viewed the same as 15 million dollar contracts right now, which are relatively cheap.
Is anyone out there surprised by this? Everyone knew yankees aren’t going for any of the big 3 SPs, or Hanley. And everyone knew they’d target Headley and McCarthy. I think Tim is literally the only one who might find this slightly surprising given his predictions. Sorry that I keep referring back to them, but the Yankee/Red Sox predictions are so far off from reality and those are the 2 teams that people will pay attention to the most in a prediction list.
History is on Tim and many other baseball writers side when they link the Yankees to big name free agents. In the past no Yankees in the playoffs = big spending in the off season. This is the Yankees’ MO until they prove otherwise.
History is on my side where the Yankees spend very little after spending a ton the off-season prior. History is on my side where the Yankees don’t spend on players that don’t fill holes when they have a ton of holes that need to be filled. There is no precedent to signing Scherzer and Hanley given the current state of the Yankees.
I’m sure there’s a bridge for sale over the Hudson, too.
“Yankees Unlikely To Persue…..”
Don’t they say this every year?
They are trying to bring the market prices down!
LF Gardner CF Ellsbury RF Beltran
3B Headley SS Ramirez 2B Prado 1B Tex
C McCan DH Rodriquez
they need Ramirez right handed bat in the lineup
SS is the only hole yanks have after resigning Headley
Gardner Prado Ellsbury Ramirez McCan Beltran Tex A Rod Headley
Replace Hanley with a Drew/Ryan platoon and you have my vote.
that lineup just dramatically got worse
Only in a vacuum. It got severely better in literally all factors other than offensively for about 2 seasons at best.
You think they need Hanley, until they sign Hanley and you want him gone in 8 months.
I have been wondering where Scherzer is going to find the dollars he is looking for. Still wondering.
I think Lester will get a bigger contract than Scherzer because both Red Sox and Cubs would prefer Lester. Yankees do not appear to be a fit.
If the Tigers are looking to spend, might as well pick up the draft pick for Scherzer and just extend Price or go after Lester themselves. That way, they can have BOTH a top pitcher contract AND the draft pick.
Wouldnt it be ironic if that 6/144 he and Boras snubbed from the Tigers turned out to be the best offer after all…
I think Price gets extended for around that amount (maybe 5% more) and the Tigers move on.
Lester will go to the Red Sox or Cubs. The loser of that bidding will not go after Scherzer. Do the LAD really need another ace?
I think you could be right, but it depends how much Price wants to test free agency.
If he stays, Cubs pay Lester, Yanks really arent in on him and LAD dont – just who will pay Max what hes seeking?
Hard to say with any confidence.
Price could command a way better contract then Scherzer, I think Price could easily get $200 million on the open market.
You might be right, but he would be the wrong side of 30 when he hit FA.
With Boras in tow i think, having knocked back what they did, he and Max are looking for $200m here, but the way the market is shaping up, that could be a pipe dream.
He turns 30 next August but if he pitches again well and doesnt work out an extension, I could see the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Detroit be at the front of a bidding war for him (with other teams as well), especially if any of them get knocked of early in the playoffs if they make it at least.
Scherzer and Price are almost identical in terms of value… Price is a year younger, but is also a year away from Free Agency.
There is a high probability that Price would take 6/$144MM right now from the Tigers. Not everyone wants the risk of missing out on $100MM+ if there is an injury.
At 6/144, Price would get a nice jump over his projected Arb.$$$ for 2015($18.9 mill per Matt Swartz). They could even go 7/169 and have an opt out clause after 5 years. Structure it as $19mill in 2015 and then $25 mill for next 6. Gives Price top market value and the ability to test the market again after 5. Tigers get a top Lefty for about the same $$ as the Scherzer deal.
Comparing their last 3 years (fWAR):
1. Scherzer: 16.5
2. Price: 15.2
3. Lester: 11.0
I do not think Price would command more than Scherzer in the open market.
Price has a much longer track record of Cy-Young award type seasons. Scherzer wont command as much because he hasn’t been as consistent over the years. Price’s only average or “bad” season was his first real year in the majors, and that wasn’t even a full season he played.
My stats were over a full three year span. That is good enough of a track record for most teams.
All I’m saying is teams might think Scherzer is at his peak and he can regress to the Scherzer he was before. Price on the other had hasn’t had an average or bad season since his rookie campaign. Plus he’s a lefty which means he’s worth more anyway.
Yet you DO think whoever doesn’t sign Lester is going to ignore Scherzer?
I don’t see the Tigers making a run at Max at this point. He had their best offer and said no and I suspect they will just make that offer to Price, as he’d be a nice lefty complement to JV-Anibal anyway. Someone will pony up for Max. Whoever doesn’t get Lester between the Cubs and Sox will be a major player, the Rangers, Mariners and Angels all have $ and could pull that trigger, the Dodgers could always wind up in it, Giants might have gotten over Zito, even the White Sox are looking to spend this off season and could use some pitching.
I think Max will top the 6/144 he got offered but it may not be as much as he thought and he may not wind up in a destination he wanted (eg. STL as rumored).
Not going to pursue this or that type player? Oh please, in the Yankee Kingdom, there’s no such thing. They’ve said that in the past and ended up signing a big name player. I no more believe what the Yankees say they will do, than I believe that 10 year old kids can hit major league pitching.
With all due respect, I believe your 10 year old would have a shot against the 2014 Tigers playoff bullpen.
I like the idea of bringing back Headley and McCarthy. I think they will also resign Robertson. I can see them adding either Lowrie or Cabrera at SS. : Line- up Gardner, Ellsbury, McCann, Tex ,A-Rod, Headley, Beltran, Prado, and Lowrie. Not a bad line-up. Rotation Tanaka, Pineda, CC, McCarthy, Nova or Phelps. I can see Cashman going after Maeda and trading one of his catchers and Phelps for a player.
I doubt they go in for Maeda. They have a surplus of starters: Sabathia, Tanaka, Pineda, McCarthy (should they re-sign him), Nova, Phelps, and Greene. There’s no reason to gamble on another pitcher from Japan when you already know what happened with Tanaka. To be honest, Maeda is more of a middle of the rotation guy and the Yankees have plenty of those.
If the Yankees are saying this now, it practically guarantees they will be all over them shortly. It’s just not in the Yankees’ DNA to spend judiciously. Even when they resisted the temptation to sign Cano to a ludicrous contract last year, they still felt compelled to sign three other ridiculous contracts to make up for it. I’m guessing they’ll hold back for awhile and then feel compelled to give Jon Lester $150M and Sandoval another $120M.
I think the problem with trusting anything the Yankees say is that there does not seem to be a united front in the front office for the Yankees. Cashman seems to have a philosophy that is different from the young Steinbrenners’ so you never know what is going to happen. Cashman wants to get younger and cheaper and the Steinbrenners seem to want big names. So, you get these weird moves like signing Ichiro and not Russell Martin. Not offering A-Rod an extension and then re-signing him for more than market value. Trying to save money by not making Cano a great offer, but then give McCann and Ellsbury giant contracts. It’s a two headed snake in there and they can’t seem to decide if they want to spend or get under the cap.
Spot on.
Good! Get Headley and McCarthey and a bat (not Hanley) to help the O. I would take Lowrie at short. Let Robertson walk and pick up a decent setup man for Betances at about $5 MM. ARod can give both Headley and Tex a break and share DH. Hopefully Beltran can play some RF. Prado plays some RF, LF when Gardner or Ellsbury needs a break, and help out at second. Work hard on trade opportunities to upgrade – chips like Cervelli, Kelley, Claiborne, Romine, Ryan, maybe Gardner and/or Phelps for the right deal.
Who’s gonna pitch? That’s an awfully mediocre team.
Its mediocre if McCann Beltran and Teixeira don’t bounce back after bad years. And who knows what A-Rod will hit. (my guess is 260ish ba and 20 homers)
Was pitching our problem this year? The offense and defense are both improved with Lowrie, Headley and Prado all year. The SP could be better with full years from McCarthey, Sabathia and Pineda with second half help from Nova. Kuroda is still a possibility and Greene deserves a rotation spot with his great stuff and performance. With Phelps and Whitley in the wings we are not short. A trade could upgrade the tail end of the rotation, but I think the need of a #1 starter is a lower priority than getting some run production and better D.
Just for the heck of it . . . Carl Pavano
When you say “Yankees unlikely to pursue” I hear the sound of fainting agents in the background.
Pitching in Fenway is a huge difference. Not much age difference between Scherzer and Lester. Lester is still rated best value FA, to me. Theo will be all over this. Both these guys want to stick it to the Sox.
1. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher, so home stadium does not matter much.
2. Scherzer has a much higher fWAR over the last three years than Lester (16.5 v. only 11.0).
You going by 31 total innings at Fenway? That’s been a hitters Park forever.
ESPN Ballpark Factors:
Comerica: 1.003 (almost exactly neutral)
Fenway: 1.072 (A little hitter friendly, but Coors is 1.501… for some perspective).
Coors is on a different scale than all other ballparks. Fenway is still the 5th most hitter-friendly park in all of baseball.
The Yankees HAVE to say they’re not in on the big guys in order to keep the price down. Once the Yanks enter conversation, prices go up significantly.
Not just for them either, but for everyone.
I’ll believe that the Yankees won’t pursue any of the “Big 3” when they don’t.
I believe they will pursue but not offer the ridiculous contracts that they have in the past.
Yankees should just blow everything out and tank for a couple of years just to obtain young prospects just like what the mets have done. They have strong young pitchers in Degrom, Harvey, wheeler, syndergaard. You could probably put them 1-4 in any order and they’d probably be top 5 pitching rotation in two years.
Rebuilding in that manner takes years, the Yankees don’t have the patients. Also the Yankees have very few player to trade for significant prospect returns.
Pitchers break. And frequently do.
This would require a level of patience that Yankee fans do not possess.
The Yankees don’t “pursue” free agents they simply sign them to whatever ludicrous contract they request.
Pursue is the right word. Players go back and forth between teams and in many cases the Yankees offer high amounts/years just to make sure they get the player they want.
I have to wonder what the Red Sox are going to do in all of this. I think they did their upgrades offensively when picking up Allen and Cespedes. However, they did gut their starting pitching and bullpen to do so. I hope they sign Andrew Miller and Lester back. I also hope they look at Shields as well.
They still need 3B and a lefty bat, even if it comes at the expense of prospects and/or Allen and Cespedes. Prospects and ~3 tier B relievers can repair the bullpen to league average, and signing 2-3 mid-tier starters will do the same for their rotation. This all seems to fall in line financially with their new way of business, which the Patriots have been employing for years – buying multiple “ponies” instead of a single “horse”. I’m think McCarthy or Liriano, plus Shields, and 1-2 has-beens hoping one will stick, similar to Capuano last year to “solve” the rotation, even though I dread the thought of that rotation.
The Red Sox did this two years ago and won the World Series.
They pursued mid level free agents who fit the teams needs.
I would totally be okay with this plan, add depth, improve everywhere.
Blueprint
SP: Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Brett Anderson
3B: Chase Headley
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie
OF: Nori Aoki, Mike Morse
RP: Andrew Miller, Sergio Romo, Rafael Soriano
That would be very solid, with an emphasis on improving long term.
Whomever fully believes this… I got a bridge for sale on craiglist. They always say this!! Then last second, breaking news Yankees have signed Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury, etc
uh-huh, I’ll believe this when I see it.
2012 and 2011 were not big free agency years for the Yankees. So it has happened
The Yankees may have decided to accept mediocrity for a few years while makings gobs of money.
I honestly don’t mind if the Yankees don’t spend and just start using that money in the farm system. This current Yankees team is mediocre, and that’s after spending 500M. Everyone is now a year older and many players in this lineup aren’t gonna produce like they did five to ten years ago. Just trying to fix the problem by throwing more money at it isn’t gonna fix anything, and is just gonna prolong the rebuilding. I don’t mind being mediocre for the next 2-3 years then bring up the young talent in 2018/19.
Say it with me… Sign Jon Lester.
The attitude factor of Ramirez uys a non issue when it comes to him being/playing in New York, nobody’s bigger than New York city and coming to wear pinstripes humble people really quick