FRIDAY: The Diamondbacks are in negotiations with the Rays, and a deal could be in place soon, reports Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (Twitter links).
MONDAY, 9:14pm: The Rockies aren’t the mystery NL team, The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports (via Twitter).
1:47pm: The D’Backs have interest in Hellickson, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). However, it’s not clear that Arizona is in or has had any advanced talks with the Rays.
9:27am: The Rays are moving toward dealing right-hander Jeremy Hellickson to an unknown National League team, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Times (via Twitter). A deal is likely to get done this week, Sherman adds.
Hellickson, who turns 28 next April, was limited to 63 2/3 innings in 2014 as he recovered from January surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow. The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year pitched to a 2.95 ERA in a stellar rookie season, but he’s never graded out well when looking at sabermetric indicators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Each of those three metrics pegs Hellickson between 4.34 and 4.38, suggesting that his strong work early in his career was a bit of a mirage, likely propped up by a BABIP south of .260 and a strand rate north of 80 percent.
Over the past two seasons, Hellickson has an even 5.00 ERA in 237 2/3 innings. On the plus side, he’s bumped his K/9 to 7.2 over those past two seasons and dropped his walk rate to 2.7 per nine — both of which are improvements over the marks he posted early on in his career.
Though Hellickson has struggled recently and never graded out that well from a sabermetric standpoint, there’s plenty of upside to be had from an acquiring team’s standpoint. He’s still in his prime and was ranked among the game’s Top 10 prospects by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to his promotion to the Majors. The Scott Boras client can be controlled through the 2016 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a very reasonable $3.9MM in 2015.
Though the Rays dealt Cesar Ramos to the Angels last week, a Hellickson deal would be the first significant move by new Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman and newly minted VPs Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom. The Cubs, Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Braves could all make some sense for Hellickson, and it’s of course worth speculating that new Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman is interested in re-acquiring the right-hander.
Here we go!
Dodgers
Cubs
I agree with you that I think the Cubs could be the destination for him. I just hope they don’t give up too much. To me he is just another back end guy. He had one good year.
If it is the Cubs, the best prospect they would be giving up is Vogelbach, and even that might be an overpay.
agreed. Hellickson is a change of scenery type guy who is a back end type starter.
Hellickson is pretty damn good on the eyeball test. I know his stats don’t necessarily say it, but he’s really untapped potential. I’d say as much, if not more, as Arrietta had when Arrieta got dealt.
Vogelbach would be far from an overpay.
what do you think Hellickson could net? It won’t be much.
alcantara is at best a 4th outfielder/utility guy for the Cubs, but he would have value for the Rays. I would be ok with that exchange.
The Rays have too many OF’s as it is right now, and I’d expect 1-2 of them to get dealt this off-season too. They have Joyce, Jennings, Guyer, Kiermeier, Myers, DeJesus all on the big league roster. Plus Mikie Mahtook at AAA who could be an above replacement player.
I heard they want to trade Dejesus and Joyce and replace them with control able players!
How about Lake and Alcantara?
Doesn’t really fit Jed/Theo’s MO. They usually pick up pitchers whose xFIP is better than their ERA, and they usually target guys who are FAs or on waivers as opposed to trading for them. But I guess we’ll see…maybe Maddon really wants this guy.
He would be awful at Wrigley. He needs to go to a large ballpark like Marlins Stadium and he will succeed like Jared Cosart did
I don’t think the Rays want to talk to the Cubs at the moment…
Classic mystery team, they have a serious leak within their organization that needs to be plugged, their stuff gets out into the media every year.
Mystery team could really use a lesson from Billy Beane.
Lets go white sox
National league team
I think I’d rather watch Sale hit than have Viciedo as a DH.
yah until he twists an ankle rounding 2nd base.
are they a NL ? No there are not.
I think he means he wants them to step up and try to grab him. Still a lot of potential in him.
maybe the braves as part of a gattis trade?
Maybe but Gattis has a lot more value than Hellickson does. More likely a trade for prospects is in the the works IMO. TB is trying to restock its farms system. Freidman and Maddon jumped ship at just the right time, I fear the Rays have some dark days ahead. Their MLB roster just can’t compete without another influx of young cost controlled talent
trueee just thinking that would make since hmm for some reason im intrigued by who he gets traded to lol
What are some of the Braves weak spots? Maybe it is Helly and someone else for Gattis.
ummm we do have bench problems and we always like taking pitching so maybe its helly and a bat or a another pitcher for gattis
The Braves biggest needs are:
1. 4th Starter
2. OF (starter/platoon)
3. 2B/3B (utility/starter)
4. 5th Starter (until either Medlen or Beachy come back after the All-Star break)
5. PH
The organization has a lot of money tied up towards just a few players, and Gattis is one of their cheaper players, so this would likely be deal where they get someone who they can control for a few years. Matt Joyce is one possibility; although his defense is poor enough that both BR and FG have his WAR only a combined 3.8 points higher over the past two seasons than B.J. Upton.
Howabout Hellickson and Jennings for Gattis + spect(s) then? Maybe throw Sean Rodriguez in as well. That would fill all the major holes the Braves have, and give the Rays some more prospects, as well as help clear up their SP and OF backlog a bit.
I’d say Gattis and prospects for Hellickson and Zobrist.
The first thing the Rays need to do is relocate and get an identity!
How about North Carolina or Tennessee!
Or Tampa…
The logical and most likely landing spot that is conveniently ignored.
gattis, jup, and la stella for myers, franklin, and hellickson.
Hellickson still has plenty of potential. I’ve always liked his changeup, which can be downright nasty at times. Maddon didn’t give him the chance to stick through some tough games, but I think he can have a solid year if the pitching coach can help work on his fastball location and delivery consistency. Dodgers and Cubs seem pretty obvious choices. Wouldn’t be a good fit in Colorado – too many fly balls.
I will call Reds
Reds seem like a good fit!
this was bound to happen… looking at the rays depth to their rotation it seemed so obvious. whatever the return is, it should be a decent haul for a rebuilding yet still competitive rays club.
Please get him out of the AL East. He takes forever between pitches. It really drags the pace of the game.
The AL east has some of the slowest pitchers in the MLB in 2014, 5 of the 10 slowest pitchers (min 100 IP) were from the AL East. (David Price, Clay Buchholz, Chris Archer, Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka all took over 25 seconds between pitches in 2014.)
Interestingly enough, two of the top 3 quickest pitchers in the MLB were also in the AL East (Buehrle and Dickey). Actually, without filtering an innings limit, the first 5 quickest pitchers coming out of the East were Jays (Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Chad Jenkins, Todd Redmond). Then Ubaldo comes in at 52
Haha you’re right about that. It was worse when the Red Sox had Beckett and Pap.
Those Yankees/Red Sox games went on forever!
Braves would want Desmond if they get rid of Gattis. Then they could get rid of BJ and know they got Center covered.
i was just thinking that
Maybe Helickson and Desmond for Gattis and a bullpen piece or two
thats what im thinking
DJ has had 3.3 WAR each of the last 3 seasons. Gattis has a combined 3.3 WAR in the past 3 seasons. I know WAR is not the be-all-to-end-all stat, but his combination of defense and speed and average hitting (which he can still improve) is more valuable to me than Gattis. I wouldn’t take Gattis for DJ straight up, let alone with Helly.
I understand, but I also don’t see Helickson for Gattis straight up either. I understand kicking the tire on it. However, the Braves only would want Helly, DJ, and/or Zobrist. They really don’t want zobrist unless they could rid all of BJ’s deal which we all know they can’t so that’s why I think DJ is in play only if Gattis and some other key pieces are involved.
I’ve been saying it for awhile, WAR is way too elastic when it comes to defense. It overvalues players it likes on defense and undervalues players it doesn’t. Jennings is a great fielder and Gattis is definitely nothing special, but in a practical sense I just can’t see a sub .700 OPS hitter being more valuable than Gattis overall. Although he did miss 50 games and I have to think he would have made up for it then had he played.
I guess my thoughts (granted, having not watched much Braves baseball) is that Gattis is a one trick pony. DJ misses a little bit of time each year but is still more durable than Gattis, and DJ had a (slightly) higher OBP, as well as a higher walk percentage (8.7 to 5.7) and lower strikeout percentage (19.9 to 24.2). He also has better speed than his 15 steals suggests. I just don’t think the Rays would want another guy who strikes out a lot while not getting on base often. Unless the new management values semi-consistent power for 2/3 of a season over a more well-rounded player, which would disappoint me.
You’re not wrong, but I do honestly think Gattis could solve most of his issues if he just ramped up his conditioning and got into better shape. He’s going to have to if he ever wants to be seen as anything more than a DH or liability at first base in the long term.
Maybe Helickson and Desmond for Gattis and some bullpen pieces, or Gosselin or LaStella
This trade seems realistic.
Phillies for Dom Brownish type deal
Well, they are pretty much set in the outfield… Except if they trade myers/zobrist…
Rays are overloaded in the outfield and will likely move at least one if not more this offseason. They have Jennings, Myers, Kiermaier, DeJesus, Joyce, and Guyer. Both Zobrist and S. Rod can also play outfield so I don’t think there is any chance they make a trade for yet another outfielder.
Nationals
Curious what Hellickson will fetch the Rays. This trade could set the bar for what other teams will be asking for in return for their starting pitchers.
Would not mind seeing the Dodgers get in on Hellickson. Could be a decent add as a No. 4 SP.
I feel like Haren v Hellickson is a bit of a wash
cards?
Cubs? Theo has a knack for bringing over one key from another team and then using that to make many more ‘deals’. See the incestuous relationship between the Red Sox/Cubs/Padres a few years back.
id say Dodgers or Cubs. How about Hellickson for the Dodgers catcher Ellis (?) and then LA signs Russell Martin
I’d do Hellickson for Ellis. If the Dodgers can sign Martin, then I could see that as a possibility.
Of course you would. Ellis is coming off a awful year. It would take more than him.
Plus Ellis is getting expensive. Can’t see the Rays doing this.
Never in a million years. You must be a Dodgers fan.
If the Dodgers sign Martin, Ellis will be the backup. Ellis and Kershaw are a paired package. Give Ellis every fifth day when Kershaw pitches, which provides rest for Martin. I was thinking more of a Van Slyke trade for Hellickson.
Its gattis and HELLY,
AL team is pushing hard for Gattis to use as DH. Parts are lining up for Braves and Tampa
yep its looking likely but we’ll see
Again some are saying straight up. If thats the case I’d think it would be a done deal. They are starting to throw in other names, and calling others to see what other returns are likely. I think it will end up being a much larger deal then just those two.
where are you hearing about the other players involved?
No specific players I just agree that Hellickson and Gattis straight up is a little unbalanced. That’s why I feel like where the Braves can trade from is possibly a bullpen piece or two and gosselin, LaStella, pena are possible as well.
oh okay agreed that would make sense
Possibly someone like Terdo too.
yepp so gattis and bullpen piece or a bat for helickson and ?.whoever
I don’t know what kind of value the new Rays GM is looking to get. I know typically they look cheap, so I could see all of these cheap guys, Terdo, Pena, Gosselin, LaStella, Hale, Jaime, Northcraft, Shreve, Schloasser, Thomas, Pastor…..just some I could see both sides getting value out of
yep most likely those are the names involved or being discussed
Zobrist? He’s only got 1 year left on the deal and may want out of TB. Braves could afford to sign him to a friendly extension, and he’ll get paid fair value. Something like a 3/30 deal. 9, 10, 11 in 15-17. Braves need a Martin Prado type super utility to move around and give guys days off.
hmm thats intriguing
Only for 1 year. Not going to block Peraza at 2B.
I like this idea. If Peraza is as good as advertised, he could play center field. Extend J-Hey and keep him in right.
Braves get Hellickson, Zobrist, and a minor league pitcher (don’t know the Rays’ system, so this is a guess).
Rays get Gattis and Terdoslavich
Financially I don’t think the Braves can hold suit for Zobrist for the one year. Arb increases and the increases in contracts for Freeman and Heyward make them very thin. Adding Zobrist would only be if they got rid of JUP for sure, and possibly CJohnson or some pitching to clear salary. I like Zobrist, I think he’d be good for Atlanta bring more avg and obp. Just don’t see the financials working out. Not only that but I don’t see the advantage for the Rays, two higher strikeout guys, positions covered for Terdo. Now if they can land Zobrist, Jennings, and Hellickson with intent to get rid of JUP(to someone else). I can see that being a big swing for the Braves. Just don;t know the Braves have the pieces to get too much like that done, but the Braves did like Kiermaier over the Trade Deadline and rumors were that they were trying to see if they could get a deal done for him. So I could see him instead of Jennings or Zobrist.
Turdo has been a good nickname for Hellickson’s performance the past couple years.
Just meant that one side is probably trying to say, what would it take if we threw so and so in as well…..
A Gattis trade has been rumored to hold the same value of a Trumbo trade of last year. Not going to be for Hellickson straight up. Agree that it could be for Kellickson + Jennings for Gattis + ??
Wouldn’t mind this in a Rosario trade with Colorado. That change up is wicked.
Rosario? Then McKenry would be the starter but then who would be the backup?
Rosario isnt that good but at least he’s got power in his bat.
That’s the point. He would be an ideal DH in the AL.
Gotcha
Hope the Rays are able to pick up a bat for Helly
Gattis.
While I’m hopeful this related somehow to Gattis, I’d be happy get a bag of balls and an assistant grounds crew member for Hellickson at this point.
Yea. I can’t imagine he could net much. Sounds like it could be a change of scenery type player for another one in Hellickson.
Rays could always throw in someone like S. Rod or Joyce. 2B has been a weak point for the Braves and while S. Rod isn’t the answer, he is versatile and crushes left handed pitching.
Hope fully it isn’t for Gattis, Gattis should be used for a top of the order bat.
gattis plus for helly and jennings? hmm maybe
That I’d be OK with, Freeman and J-UP were wasted because they didn’t have anyone to drive in excpt Heyward and he should be driving in runs kinda wasted at the top of the order. I’d put priority on a a leadoff hitter over pitching.
I imagine we’ll see Peraza either this year or the next.
Please, please be the Giants. I really don’t want Peavy and Vogelsong back. But I think its the Cubs.
I think that FIP problem will scare the Cubs away.
The Cubs aren’t using FIP. I’m not saying the Cubs would trade for Hellickson, but they are using their own system to evaluate players. Teams aren’t searching players on Fangraphs.
Yet they claimed Jacob Turner to take a roster spot? Hellickson won’t cost much. Probably Welingnton Castillo (if they’re serious about Russell Martin).
Jacob Turner is a classic FIP over ERA candidate.
A BJ Upton plus salary back to the Rays for Hellickson would make sense.
Not for the Rays.
I just don’t see Hellickson being much in demand. If the Rays can get BJ back at a reasonable salary for Hellickson I think it would be a good get for him.
The Rays already have a surplus of outfielders as it is. They don’t need BJ Upton.
Look at Upton’s last 2 years with the Rays.
2011 .243 .331 23 HR 81 RBI and 36 SB
2102 .246 .298 28 HR 78 RBI and 31 SB
If they could get a BJ Upton back at a reasonable salary they can trade an outfielder to fill other holes. This is Jeremy Hellickson we are talking about.
Okay, but BJ Upton hasn’t been on the Rays’ roster for 2 years. Look at the slash lines he has put up since then. Not worth the gamble.
Surprised no one has mentioned the Pirates. Team that has to replace 350 innings from departing free agents, has a track record of unlocking value in pitchers, and has a top 5 farm system to deal from. Reports were the Bucs made a very attractive prospect-laden offer for Price at he deadline, so the two teams have already had discussions surrounding Tampa’s longer term needs.
Was my first thought too. This would follow their MO completely. Someone cheap with a questionable track record and decent upside such as Hellickson + another, higher tier pitcher would go a long way to making this a successful offseason for the Bucs. To me, I base the Bucs chances of doing more damage next year on whether or not Locke is part of the rotation on opening day.
I know. This guy fits the mold of a Ray Searage project!
I’d like to see the Braves give Gattis for Hellickson, Ryan Brett or Kean Wong. Hell, Tim Beckham wouldn’t be bad either, but to pick him up, Coppy would have to give a first round pick and possibly a Super Two.
No thanks on Hellickson for Gattis.
Why not? Please elaborate.
Hellickson is not good and Gattis is
Other recent pitchers that were not good when Atlanta signed them: Gavin Floyd, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, Ben Sheets, Freddy Garcia, Paul Maholm, and George Sherrill. You underestimate McDowell.
A cheap FA signing or low risk trade (Maholm) is one thing. I don’t think we’re in any position to be trading one of the only bright spots of a horrendous lineup for a #5 guy.
That’s why I said there would have to be prospects included on Tampa’s side. This wouldn’t be a one-to-one trade.
Sorry, I mostly just got on my soapbox about the notion of Gattis for Hellickson straight up and was just venting a little. I will be upset if that happens.
I have no clue where Gattis will go, but I’m sure he won’t be returning to Atlanta next year. I’d be ok if he came to Texas. I could go to more games with his family.
Trade Rays to Diamondbacks Hellickson for Montero.. Remember you got it here first folks!
That’s a lot of salary for the Rays to take on, would you guess cash going to the Rays as well?
I think Steve Adams just made Joel Sherman’s day. He attributed him to the New York Times rather than the NY Post. For most journalists I think that’s a nice promotion, although personally I read the NY Post’s sports section a lot more than the Times’
I would like to see the Phillies deal for him. Maybe Domonic Brown for Hellickson? Tampa could use Domonic as a DH/Outfielder.
The real scoop is that in a sleeper deal, Joel Sherman has apparently signed with the New York Times. It is believed that he rejected the Post’s qualifying offer and that they will now receive a sandwich pick photographer as compensation.
With the Bucs possibly in danger of losing both Volquez and Liriano, it would not shock me if they were in on Hellickson. Not likely, but it wouldn’t shock me.
Phillies or Nats are my guess. Both need some rotation options. Be surprised if it was the Cubs and hope they have higher ceiling targets this off season.
Cubs maybe?
something tells me the Rays are not so eager to make a trade with the Cubs…lol
That was my exact thought after reading some folks saying the Cubs. However, Rays are all about obtaining young prospects who have potential and the Cubs are full of em. They may put away the bad blood for a day to get a trade done
To Philly for Dom Brown
Going to take a shot in the dark and say the Marlins. They’ve been very open about how they want another proven starter and have the prospects to deal to the Rays, a team they have done business with a few times lately.
Come to the Giants!
I don’t really see where the Pirates and Rays match up unless the Rays would accept prospects in return. The Price deal fell through because instead of accepting some package of Josh Bell/Glasnow/Kingham they wanted Marte. The only major league players I can see the Bucs trading this offseason are Alvarez, Ike Davis, and Travis Snider. Alvarez would be too much for Hellickson, Davis would probably be too little (the Rays have a 1B but they would be a good DH, esp Pedro). Snider and maybe a bullpen arm (Justin Wilson?) is probably their best offer and while that’s a fair price for a #4/5 starter, I can see some pitching desperate team offering more.
Pirates?
I see a Helly Zorbist and Ryan Hanigan to the Braves for Gattis Gooselin and Walden
Who would ever want to TRADE for Hellickson? Unless they are trading some random low-level minor leaguer. Hellickson can be replaced by so many cheap FA or AAA pitchers.
This has The Cubs written all over it. It is clear that they are going to go after an ace or two this offseason. They are trying to compliment that by getting young guys like Felix Doubront, Jacob Turner, and potentially Hellickson who can be 3, 4, or 5 type starters.
Since no one has suggested it: Pirates? Seems like a good trade for them if they don’t give up too much farm.
Pirates?
Searage restoration
As many have said, Pirates would seem to be the perfect fit. Fairly deep system, and Hellickson would only cost probably a B-level prospect
Hellickson and Guerrieri for inciarte
I don’t think the cubs and ray’s are gonna be making trades any time soon. Considering the accusation of tampering with maddon.
Hellickson would be a perfect fit for the Cubs, but I will be shocked with everything going on. I’m going to guess the team is either the Giants, Cardinals, or Brewers
Mozeliak has been interested in Hellickson before (pre-injury) so I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he was still interested. However, if it is the Cardinals, which I doubt, it would be Hellickson plus one of Zobrist or Joyce.
Brewers? Cardinals? Pittsburgh?
Pirates
Would love to see the Rockies make some much needed moves and pick up pitchers. Hellickson regardless of a lot of flyballs helps Colorado I just want them to be aggressive since We haven’t since Hampton and Neagle
Khris Davis for Hellickson and a prospect? Davis would seem to be a cheap power RH bat that the Rays could use. Hellickson would allow Brewers to deal either Gallardo or Lohse.
Hellickson fits the mold of a Ray Searage project.
Let’s see, what NL executive has a history of being tight-lipped with the press and may have a very good understanding of what it would take for Hellickson?