The Tigers are a team built to win in the present, but that doesn’t mean their future has to be bleak, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes. The team’s recent four-year deal for Victor Martinez is one of many Tigers contracts that could turn ugly, and the team already has $75MM on the books in 2018 for Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. But that doesn’t mean they won’t have any flexibility. Considering the likelihood of modest payroll increases in the coming seasons, they could have a payroll north of $180MM in 2018. That would give them enough leeway to have a shot even with their current commitments and thin farm system. Sullivan suggests that one future-oriented move the Tigers could make would be to sign J.D. Martinez to a long-term deal. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- Yankees first baseman Greg Bird has been named the MVP of the Arizona Fall League. Bird, a fifth-round pick out of high school in 2011, hit .271/.376/.472 in a 2014 season split between Class A+ Tampa and Double-A Trenton. Bird then hit .313/.391/.556 in 26 games with the Scottsdale Scorpions. The 22-year-old Bird isn’t on the same level as the previous winner, Cubs super-prospect Kris Bryant, but he could still potentially play his way onto the Yankees roster at some point in 2015.
- Re-signing David Robertson is the Yankees’ highest priority this offseason, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News writes. The Royals’ success shows how important a good bullpen can be, and how much a good ’pen can do to help starters who don’t rack up high innings totals. With Robertson, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Jacob Lindgren, Shawn Kelley and new acquisition Justin Wilson, the Yankees could have one of the stronger bullpens in the Majors in 2015, Madden writes. On the flip side, the Yankees would like to re-sign starter Brandon McCarthy, but they think they’ll be able to replace him if another team outbids them.
- A.J. Burnett is a back-end starter at this point, but his new discount contract is still a good one for the Pirates, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes. The deal is only for one year, and it’s likely to produce about 1.5 WAR in value, which is a solid rate for an $8.5MM contract. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ homer-suppressing ballpark, defensive shifting and emphasis on pitch framing make Pittsburgh a great destination for pitchers.
- Dave Stewart of the Diamondbacks sees Jeremy Hellickson as “a number two or number three starter,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. The prospects the Diamondbacks sent to the Rays, Justin Williams and Andrew Velazquez, both have potential. (Williams hit .351/.403/.437 in 320 plate appearances in rookie ball and at Class A South Bend this season, impressive numbers for an 18-year-old at any level.) But for Stewart, Hellickson’s talent was more important, and he can help the Diamondbacks now. “They could both be All-Stars, but from our standpoint they’re three or four years away from being major league players,” says Stewart. “We have an opportunity to get a good starter to put in our rotation now and go along with our plans for our team with the 2015 season.”
Anybody else not like the move for Hellickson by the Diamondbacks?
If they’re gonna keep making trades like that, they should’ve just kept Towers.
Towers would of been Goldschmidt for Hellickson
Agree with Mike…his pitching style just doesnt fit well in that park
Me. Stewart needs to be careful and not try to make a contender from what he has. Work on becoming good, not slightly better each year.
He gets too many flyballs that will be out of there in the desert. Just don’t like a non-contender giving up prospects for a backend starter. It doesn’t make a ton of sense. You can point to his era his first 2 years, but between his fip his entire career and his era past 2 years it probably alludes that he really isn’t what he was those 2 years. They lost 98 games, they need real work, not thinning a middle the road farm.
My sentiments exactly. I think his ground ball percentage last year was about 42 percent(which is fine). But career wise it’s under 40. Doesnt bode well for that park.
Go do your thing Bird!!! Guy could probably do better than Texeira at this point.
Doubt it.
Atta boy Bird
Can’t wait to see Bird and Judge in the bigs
He is getting some love for top 100 lists this winter.
That is if they aren’t traded.
I’m as big a Bird fan as any, but I think 2015 is a little too generous of a timetable. 2016 for sure, but I don’t think this year works.
Are you sure?
Have been with Bird for awhile. He approaches his ab’s the right way. I think he would really have to mash to get there this year, he is going to start the year at AA. If they are really teaching Arod 1B then he figures to be the backup if Tex goes down.
McCann can back up Tex too.
I think if they need a backup they’d bring up Roller, they wouldn’t limit his ABs by placing him on the bench.
Maybe a September call up.
Yes, I think Judge and Bird have a good chance in 16 if they have good years. Refsnyder should have the best shot in 15.
Injuries and production levels in-season may dictate who gets the call. If Judge is tearing up AA and Beltran needs to be out for a few weeks, he could get the call.
IMO I think Flores and Austin ahead of Judge this year, especially if it’s only an injury. Judge has the most potential long term, but he may not be the best choice right now.
I presume the Tigers feel VIctor Martinez will be David Ortiz 2.0?
They just want to win right now, it’s pretty clear they’re going to be bad in a couple of years, so they need to capitalize. VMart was the best bat available to pair with Miggy, so they went for it.
They needed a LH bat as well. It was a deal they had to make, but I’m wondering what other DHs are going to get now.
Well Vmart was a different class from the other DH’s imo, he had one heck of a year, SH etc.
VMART will likely be a little better hitter… but with less power.
Unless he slows down so much that he will be thrown out by the right fielder… I am pretty confident that he can stay at around .300 for all 4 years.
minus the performance enhancers.
I’m sorry but $8.5 million for a “back-end starter at this point” is not a “discount contract”, regardless of the market. A market adjustment is needed. Big time.
I somewhat agree, though part of the overpay is due to the one year contract. The Pirates weren’t likely to get a cheaper option in a one year deal. The same things were said about Volquez last year at 5 mil. I still think Burnett is better than Volquez and can still perform as a solid 3 or 4.
This only works out if the Bucs go out and get a better starter, presumably on a 3-4 year deal.
This has less to do with the Pirates and more to do with the alleged market. I don’t follow you. He mentions Burnett as a back-end starter and the contract being a discount, yet you say it’s an overpay. At the end of the day, they’re all overpaid, but my point was merely focusing on the fact of him labeling it a “discount” contract for a “back-end starter”. As a side note, I agree that Burnett is better than Volquez.
Die hard Yankees fan here and I never saw what they see in Robertson. Every freaking time he is in there in the 9th in a 2 or 1 run game I hold my breath scared he will blow it. So he wants Paplebon money and in his first year as a closer he had a 3.09 ERA…..really?
I agree with you – especially on holding my breath on 1 run leads.
Honestly I would rather have the draft pick and the $12MM a year to sign someone else to fix the lineup.
Cash said the payroll was expected to go up, so there could be room
It already did… when arod came off suspension.
Give me two good hitters before we spend that much on a closer. People are acting like you can’t win a game now unless you have 3 elite setup men. There is a new fad every year, letting what you can do in a single series dictate your offseason moves is just bad.
Who are the hitters you’ve got in mind and where are they playing?
Hanley and Headley
Where’s Hanley playing? Because I am not really interested in watching a guy worse than Jeter play SS.
And I’m not interested in watching a hitter worse than Jeter play shortstop.
Considering Derek was one of the worst everyday players in 2014, almost anyone will be an improvement.
There’s were plenty worse them him but I’m not arguing he was all that good.
There were very few players worse than Jeter who got anywhere near as much playing time as he did.
Jeter tied Xander for 0.2 WAR, there were plenty of negative war players that were starters on most teams throughout the year.
I like signing Headley, Drew, Hammels, and Gregerson.
Headley is one, not so sure about the other one. Maybe a trade for JRoll.
RAJ would want Severino and Judge for JRoll.
In free agency you could get only one good hitter they need for less than $12 million a year. Probably Asbrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie.
Chase Headley is projected to get between $14 and $15 million per year.
Sign Headley, Lowrie or Drew, Hammel, and Gregerson!
Looking at the team’s offense for 2015, we’ve got to be realistic and put a premium on keeping runs off the board. Just because he wants Papelbon money doesn’t mean he’ll get it, nor does it mean the team ought to just disengage.
You can’t win if you don’t put runs on the board to begin with. Let’s gamble the young kids can hold the lead rather than accepting to never win.
You’ve got to be realistic, though. Beltran, Teixeira, McCann, are all going to play and play a lot if they are healthy. We can hope they will be better, but I don’t think we can just assume positive regression at this point.
I think it’s a bit melodramatic to infer that paying a premium to maintain the elite bullpen depth the team enjoyed in 2014 is “accepting to never win”.
You can change though. Just because that was their strong point, if you can get some decent hitters this winter that is going to outweight the loss in the pen.
Yankees have done very well finding good bullpen pieces, I don’t think you need to spend that much on one guy. Going Drob -> Warren is less than 2 runs a season.
You’ve got to have somewhere for these decent hitters to play, though. Most of the lineup is already in place with large contractual obligations coming to them and the team still needs to either re-sign or replace McCarthy and Kuroda.
SS and 3B are completely open. If you are looking to spend $30MM you can very quickly eat up that cash on 2 positions.
We hope 3B is completely open, anyway. I’m not sure the candidates you or I have in mind for that position are going to sign without it being clear that Alex has no real claim at significant playing time.
Headley and Drew look to be the best options. I don’t see the Yanks finding a long term solution to SS this year.
In hindsight, you have the say it was a bad decision for Beltran not to have the elbow surgery early in 2014. Maybe he could have helped the team down the stretch His WAR rating fell from a 2.4 in 2013 to -.2 in 2014.
Well his WAR in 2014 was a direct result of being a very ordinary offensive player. He’s been a negative on defense for years, so if he isn’t a well above average hitter, he’s not a guy worth playing.
All the big salary players will play this year if they are healthy, I could see the Yanks dumping or moving Tex and A-Rod if they don’t produce in 15.
I agree that Robertson is not exactly Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning. But the back of the bullpen was the strength of the team in 2014. They need offense but there are no premium hitters available on the market. Maybe Robertson in the 9th and Betances in the 8th is one of their better alternatives.
Well when you have the best closer of all time finishing games for your team for 17 years, I guess having a so called “elite” closer who posts a low 3.00ERA in a extreme hitter friendly ballpark and a 13.4/SO9 isn’t good.
Robertson is very good. He’s just not Mariano, and there’s no shame in that. Of course he’s not worth the QO, and he’s also not as good as Papelbon was when Papelbon signed his contract. But, if Papelbon is the model, Robertson’s negotiating team should probably understand that most people see the Papelbon contract as a real mistake.
Big money contracts never work out for relief pitchers except Mariano. I would let Robby go and sign Gregerson for 2/11.
Couldn’t agree more. Sign Miller and get to pick in the same spot they drafted Judge two years ago. In two or three years time, the first round player they get out of it may well be worth more than DRob himself.
Robertson is weird to me. He is not a silent assassin like Rivera was. He invites trouble — though probably less so now — and does his “Houdini” act with a few strikeouts. The ability to get strikeouts is a prized talent, but so is not walking guys. Robertson could easily be just an average pitcher if base hits came at the right times; or from his perspective, the wrong times.
Robertson is my favorite Yankee, so bias beware. If he is brought back, great. If not, then I do think he is replaceable.
I don’t know about the Tigers future being “bleak”, but it is surely not good. For the last 2 years their payroll has gone up while they’re playing worse on the field. Doesn’t seem like that trend will be broken this year.
Ever since free agency came to MLB, there are examples of teams that spent lots of money, but watched their teams get worse and worse. George Steinbrenner’s Yankees were the highest spending team in MLB with an ever increasing payroll for over a decade, yet never made the playoffs. They did when the farm system produced a group of core players.
Max is gone. Price will very probably follow. Verlander is being paid like one of the top pitchers in MLB, yet he’s become a #3 starter. Maybe. Porcello looked like he had turned the corner, but his last month has made his future questionable. The Tigers defense is below average. Victor and Miggy are as good as it gets in the 3-4 holes, but the rest of the hitting looks spotty – we need to see if JD is for real.
Meanwhile the young Royals have learned how to win. The Sox and Twins rebuilds are just beginning to pick up steam. I don’t know how the Tigers keep winning when they have so little coming out of their farm system.
The problem with the Tigers is that over the last two years their bullpen melted down in the playoffs. The front office hasn’t really fixed the problem since 2012. They probably need to sign Andrew Miller to pitch the 7th & 8th.
They got the #1 Reliever available last year (Nathan) and the #1 Reliever available via trade at the deadline (Soria). They did not pan out.
2011- 95 wins 2012- 88 wins 2013- 93 wins 2014- 90 wins.
Division champs every year. I don’t see how they are worse the last two years.
They don’t need a deep farm system, they just need one guy to develop into a quality major league player each year to refresh a stacked roster. Last year it was Iglasias. This year it was Castellanos. Next year should be James McCann.
The key to their continued success will be extending Price and/or Porcello.
tigers should trade verlander. I mean who isn’t looking for a back of the rotation starter owed too much money and willing to trade young guys in return?
Man this makes me cringe as a DBacks fan.
Verlander was recovering from core surgery last year and still managed to finish #11 in fWAR for AL Starting pitchers with at least 200 innings (tied with Sonny Gray).
He eats innings and would probably be a #2 on some teams, and maybe a #1 on others. The Tigers had poor defense and he had some bad luck.
The Tigers are mid-market team in terms of market size… but much like St. Louis, their fan base is much more like a top 5 market team. They have the #1 ratings share of ALL MLB teams and they regularly draw about 3,000,000 per year with a lot of relatively high priced seats.
They have been #5 in payroll in 2012, 2013 and 2014, which matches their revenue. They were at about $162MM last year. There is no reason to they cannot grow about 10% per year… would be an increase of $16MM (for 2015) … or just about the cost adding a Victor Martinez every year.
Detroit is the 11th largest metropolitan tv market. Four of the metro areas ahead of them have 2 teams. I think most people underestimate the Tigers potential to generate revenue.
St Louis is 21st, which makes their revenue even more a tribute to their management and fans.
I see Bird eventually being an Adam Laroche type player.
Seeing the words “Burnett” and “Yankees” in the same headline scared me for a second.
Bill Madden is wrong here. The Yankees cannot and should not copy the Royals’ model of a strong bullpen, especially when the Yankees’ bullpen will be far more expensive. David Robertson’s AAR will equal approximately the sum of the salaries of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland. You can’t allocate that much to a bullpen when your offense underperformed in a hitter’s ballpark and your starting rotation is mostly patchwork. Robertson is my favorite Yankee, so I would not lose any sleep if he were brought back.
These are the Yankees we are talking about. They will do whatever it takes and pay how ever much.
JD Martinez is a cool story. He’s also a 27-year-old who the club can control at below market prices for three more years. It would seem that extending him and trying to get younger and trying to ensure ore future financial flexibility are mutually exclusive ideas.
IF we win a WS this year(Tigers), we should trade Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. They could get sooo many good prospects with them.