The Marlins hope to have Giancarlo Stanton signed to a long-term extension before the Winter Meetings, Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link). Hill said that Jose Fernandez’s rehab from Tommy John surgery is going well but the team is “not going to push anything because he is so valuable to us.” Not included in the audio link, but available via Bowden’s Twitter feed, are Hill’s remarks about wanting to add another starting pitcher and a big bat to the Marlins’ roster this offseason.
Here’s some more from around baseball…
- Ten hitters who the Mariners could pursue via trades or free agency are listed by Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Victor Martinez, Michael Cuddyer and Billy Butler seem to be Seattle’s likeliest targets, Dutton believes, while players like Melky Cabrera (desire to play on the East Coast), Nelson Cruz and Yasmany Tomas (salary demands) seem unlikely to join the M’s.
- Alex Rios is likely viewed by the Mariners and other teams as “a fall-back option” if their preferred outfield choices aren’t available, Dutton writes. “Few if any” scouts would sign Rios to a two-year contract, though a one-year deal worth no more than $10MM “could be a reasonable…risk.” MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Rios would find a one-year, $8.5MM deal this winter.
- A number of trends emerged from a study of how the last 46 playoff teams allocated their payroll, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Spreading salaries around seemed to be a key factor — only nine of the 46 teams spent more than 17% of their Opening Day payroll on a single player, and the teams averaged 54.5% on their five most expensive players. Of the 46 teams studied, only two had a highest-paid player who was also their most productive player (according to WAR).
- With offense down, starting pitchers (maybe even the top arms) could see their market diminished in free agency this winter, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest Insider-only piece. Conversely, this also raises the value of free agent hitters, plus some teams could receive some big returns in trades for quality bats. Olney lists a few hitters that have already been mentioned as possible trade candidates (i.e. Yoenis Cespedes and Cubs’ middle infielders) as well as longer-shot options as Manny Machado.
- Mike Elias, the Astros’ director of amateur scouting, discusses Houston’s scouting department, some prospects the difficulty in accurately grading hitting and a number of other topics as part of a wide-ranging interview with Fangraphs’ David Laurila.
Not the correct link to Jose Fernandez there.
They are just trying to wish that Jose Fernandez a happy birthday.
The M’s should push hard for V-mart on a two or three year deal.. He won’t be what he was this year, but continuing his career as an above average offensive player is most likely. I have read he may be seeking a 4-year deal? If that is completely true I would pass. He’s going to give you nothing on the field or base-paths and his offense will surely decline over the course of 4 years.
I might go four years for Martinez, as Seattle, to secure him. The next four years is probably Seattle’s window before Cano and Felix really decline. Martinez just posted a 160+ wRC+ and that sort of offensive prowess, even seriously regressed to the 140~ range, would be greatly appreciated.
I think a 4yr deal would be perfect for the Mariners on VMart. I don’t think he’ll fall off that bad. He’s been one of great consistency his entire career.
Even “if” his numbers declined substantially, any fall in numbers would still be hands down BETTER than what the Mariners have gotten on DH for many many years!
Both of you guys have good points. The thing is, last year was well above his career averages by quite a bit in BA, SLG, OPS, and OBP. It is likely he not only drops back down to his (still very good) career averages but could decline further since he will be 36. A four year deal would take through his ages 36-39 seasons; that is enough of a red flag already. I’d rather go to a 3 year deal at a higher annual value than add that fourth year. If 4 is what it ends up taking then hey, go for it. I wouldn’t be that surprised in this current market.
Edgar’s Martinez’s best year in HR and RBI happened when he was 37. That was in the old Safeco before the fences came in. Easy to remember, because he was 37 years old and hit 37 HR. He was injured for much of the season when he was 39, but still maintained an .888 OPS. At age 40, he was still very productive with an .895 OPS, 24 HR, 25 2B, and 98 RBI. Victor won’t be worn down from squatting behind the plate anymore. He’ll be a DH occasionally manning first base. One extra year would be a poor reason not to acquire him.
You are comparing two players whose prime years were in very, very different era’s. Another thing is guys having big years at advanced ages are complete anomalies. Plus, Edgar was a better all around hitter than V-mart and Victor’s body has been through a lot since he was a catcher. When that one extra year costs a team between 15-20 million dollars, it is not a poor reason. He won’t wear down from being a DH, but it is so much more likely that he declines due to the simple fact he is older as well as his chances of getting hurt increase.
Edgar missed most of 1993 to a hamstring injury and had leg troubles for the rest of his career. The hamstring continued to bother him, he strained his quad in 2001, he had two tendons removed in 2002, he broke his big toe in 2003, and at his first Mariners camp he was diagnosed with strabismus, wandering eye, which necessitated daily eye exercises that became legendary in the clubhouse. Edgar had at least as many physical issues to overcome as V-Mart.
“He won’t wear down from being a DH, but it is so much more likely that he declines due to the simple fact he is older as well as his chances of getting hurt increase.”
More likely than Edgar, who had a bad hamstring tear in 1993 that bothered him the rest of his career? In 2001, he strained his quad. In 2002, he had a ruptured hamstring tendon surgically removed. In 2003, he broke his big toe. At his first Mariners camp a doctor found he had strabismus, wandering eye, which necessitated daily eye excercises. About the exercises he said: “Without them I’d have been gone a long time ago.”
Sorry, but your argument isn’t convincing to me at all. Edgar was a superb hitter, but he was never the buff physical specimen that V-Mart is. And how do V-Mart’s chances of getting hurt increase if he’s primarily or exclusively a DH?
You know we’re talking about baseball right? There are numerous guys who get it done without having the most impressive bodies so that is irrelevant. Again, Edgar and V-mart have played in very different era’s and E. Mart was a slightly better hitter. Of course his likely-hood of getting hurt increases with age whether he is a DH or not. Obviously if he played the field it is even more likely, but the guy still has to run the bases, swing the bat, and so on. Being a DH does not exempt someone from injuries.
Vmart has been pretty insistent on a 4 year deal. If he was going to take 3 years from any team, you would think it would be Detroit.
If VMart hits the open market I just don’t see the Mariners being outbid on VMart. Since Edgar has retired DH has been a living nightmare for the M’s, and they know it…and VMart is the perfect fit for the M’s even at a 4yr $64m deal
That would solve their DH issue for the next 4yrs without having to worry about it.
Here we go Ms fans…Rumors abound and anything possible.
I bet the reason they want Stanton signed by Winter Meetings are because if he’s not signed by then they trade him AT the winter meetings
I agree. And if that is the case I can see Seattle including the top package for him that includes Walker/Miller/etc/etc
Maybe at the all star break or next off season. I don’t see them trading him now. Teams may be hesitant to give up the whole farm until he’s proven healthy.
I’m not sure how hesitant they would be, considering how rare the opportunity to acquire someone of Stanton’s caliber is.
Again, you have no idea what caliber he still is until he steps into the batter’s box.
I think you’re overrating the long-term severity of his injury. I see really no way it affects his performance next year or future seasons. He’s a special talent with special power. I guess your assumption is maybe he’s a little more gun-shy and isn’t as discplined at the plate/scared of being hit again? I can’t see that, but I guess if a team thought that way they may be hesitant. I dunno, I wouldn’t want the Mets to sell the farm purely because I’d rather keep our young talent that’s close to the Majors, but I could see a team very close to WS-caliber selling off the farm for Stanton right now, like Boston or someone. I also don’t think Miami is going to make him available.
I’m sure he assumes it’s pschological. Which it could be. But still, he will have some ridiculous raw skills.
*She
I think you’re underrating the severity of having a baseball hit you in the face. Even psychologically you have no idea how he’ll react. Players on the DL aren’t traded for a reason. I’d rather Boston stay away from him personally, but would probably feel the same regardless of his injury. No way you get that deal done without giving up everything you have of value, and then there’s no guarantee he resigns. There are way too many ways for it to go wrong.
I totally agree with you, Victoria. There’s always the chance this affects him mentally and people who deny that possibility just don’t know. I think it is likely he is fine but there’s always the chance. It’d be risky to give up so much talent for a guy who hasn’t stepped on the field in a while.
Mike Olt was hit in the head and it ruined him.
I think we have a REAL good idea what caliber of player he is. 37 hr in 538 AB and the highest bat speed in either league. He gives you plus defense and he is 24 years old. At this point every team in the league would be at least taking a shot at trading for him even if they have to “give up the whole farm”.
Until he’s not an all-star batter anymore, you treat him like an all-star batter. So yes, you don’t know, but there’s no reason to assume he’ll come back as a bum.
The Cubs should offer them a package centered around Addison Russell and get it done.
They’re not even entertaining trade proposals for Stanton.
If they trade him Loria may as well put the franchise up for sale, because fans will totally pull off of that franchise. And Loria knows it.
All I have to say is wait. They cannot sign him long term no matter what PR they are throwing out. Its simply not economically feasible. Stanton will be traded. Maybe not this offseason, but certainly before the middle of next season. Even keeping him until opening day means he will be more than 23% of their total payroll. Not a single team in MLB history has made it to the playoffs with one player taking up that much of their total payroll. And it would go up in percentage if they either let him go to arb for 2016 or signed him.
I could see Stanton committing long-term to Miami. I think the Marlins have a very bright future. I like their pitching staff going forward, and an outfield anchored by Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna is amazing. They need some help around the infield, but I believe they have a lot of payroll room to address some of those needs. McGehee is a decent short-term stopgap at third, but they need SS/2B/1B help.
I just don’t see a Stanton/Miami deal happening, and if not signed longterm he’ll be moved by shortly after the Winter Meetings
Its not even possible for the Marlins to give him anything in the neighborhood of market value. Even if he took a 30% discount to stay its STILL way beyond the Marlins ability to pay. They are going to increase payroll into the $60 million range for 2015 of which Stanton will be 20-25%. With a max payroll of around $75 million there is simply no way they can keep him beyond 2015. Sorry, but the answer is no.
Stanton could easily sign a four year deal that eats up his last two seasons of arbitration for between 80-100 million, and become a free agent at 29 and still sign the biggest contract in baseball history. Not a bad problem for him to have.
I can’t see four years of Stanton with two as arb years hitting 100 MM. Stanton is due at maximum about 35 MM through arbitration the next two seasons, and that’s assuming he has another MVP-caliber season that sees him get a raise from his projected 2014 salary of 13 MM to 22 MM. Would Miami be willing to pay Stanton 33 MM a year for two free agent seasons only to see him walk at age 29? If Miami is committing to Stanton, I’d think they’d want more than two free agent seasons if they’re paying market rates. He would certainly walk at age 29 in this scenario.
If they bought out his arbitration years for between 20-25 million. Last year he had a 6.5 bWAR. That equates to over 30 million on the free market. He’s not going to get that via arbitration, but he’ll likely break all kinds of records regardless. That contract would be fair for all parties concerned. He’s likely to get slightly less in arbitration than AAV 20-25 million, but he’d get more for the 3rd and 4th years as a free agent. Sure Miami would only get him for four more years, but that’s two more than they have him for now. He’s going to find a team willing to pay him 30 million a season. Until that why not pay him 20-25?
How can they do that? If he signs for $20 million for 2015 as part of a long term deal that is 1/3 of the Marlins total payroll. If he goes to arbitration he is going to get around $14-15 million according to the really accurate estimates they give on this site. They are saying that in 2016 it would be $22-25 million in arb. And after that it will be $30++ million. So how can a team that will increase payroll all the way up to $60 million for 2015 and that has a maximum payroll of about $75 million afford to pay Stanton $30++ million for even one year?
The risk for Stanton in a four year deal is that he may not be the same player at 29 that he might be at 27-and injury or just a leveling off could impair his value. His arbitration awards are already going to make him incredibly rich. And, he also doesn’t know what the Marlins are going to really be doing over the next few years, regardless of what the FO says. The best possible alternative might be to get out of town.
It may be to get out of town, or he may decide to give the Marlins a few years to make good. Very few players are worse players at 29 than 27. Injuries take their tool sure, but 99% of players are still in their prime at 29.
The Marlins cant make that deal. Lets lay out the facts. They have revenue of about $150 million which means they have a maximum payroll of about $75 million. Stanton will make around $14 million in 2015 if he goes to arbitration or about 23-24% of the total payroll of $60 million that the team has said they will spend. Stanton $22-25 in 2016 if he goes to arbitration or about 30% of that maximum payroll of $75 million. Put those two FA years at about $30 million. Thats about $94-95 million. No team can have one player making more than 40% of its payroll. Only one team in history has even made the playoffs with one player making more than 20%.
The next best right handed power hitter that no one has really talked about is Paul Goldschmidt. New GM Dave Stewart could rebuild his club pretty quick.
There is very few teams that could get Goldschmidt. You’re asking for a long-term, low cost, team friendly, MVP threat gold glove caliber 1B. Mariners could offer everything they have (Walker, Paxton, Miller, Peterson) and still come up short.
Marlins would need to offer Alvarez, Yelich, Ozuna and another piece to get him.
My DREAM offseason for the Mariners:
1. Sign VMart – 4yrs $64m
2. Trade for Stanton (if he becomes avail) – Walker/Miller/etc/etc whatever it takes
3. Sign Lester to a Felix type contract
4. Resign Beimel or Andrew Miller for our LH BP arm
The M’s definitely have the resources to pull this off (players & money) with all their ROOT Sports TV revenue they’ve been pocketing for the past 18 months, approx $20m in 2014 attendance, $25m from MLB, and a paid off stadium in 2013.
They are probably the team sitting the best financially without having the $150-220m committed annual payroll yet!
You’re over paying for VMart.
If you give up everything for Stanton, how are you going to pay him long term with V-Mart, Lester, Cano and Felix’s contracts already there? They really don’t have a ton of money from the things you mentioned.
Seattle could easily jump payroll to $140-150 without feeling any financial effects. They have plenty of financial resources now with all the ROOT Sports revenue
They have 95M on the books, Lester will cost up to 28M, V-Mart will cost 16M and Stanton could command up to 30M for the long term.
Thats ~170M AAV. Where does that extra 30M come from?
I simply dont understand why the Marlins FO keeps out and out lying about their intent with Stanton. They know as well as we do that there is no way they can resign him. It is just not possible for a team with a max payroll of $75-80 million to sign a guy that is going to be asking for 3-4 years of $30 million or more over a 6-7 year deal. Its not going to happen so stop lying please.
I agree.
I also believe that he will end up landing a 10-12 deal. So look at $300m at what it will take to sign him.
Take Pujols 10yr deal and add another $50m at least. Stanton at least has his youth on his side. He’s the “franchise” player that you try to lockup for the next 12-15 years
Pujols only had 2 seasons below 7 WAR in 11 years before hitting free-agency. Stanton has never hit 7 WAR. Sure, Stanton is younger, but he’s not even on the same planet as Pujols at this point.
They dont call him the Machine for nothing
Because they’re trying to drive up his price. If they appear unwilling to move him, some team might blow the doors off with an insane offer.
What gets me is that some are actually trying to say they can keep him. That there is a way to sign him. There isnt. Simple math says its impossible. Other teams are smart. They know that. Go ahead and play hard ball Marlins. Keep him for the two arb years and by 2016 you will have Stanton and the replacements. Replacement level players on a WAR scale that is.
It sure is NICE to see Stanton & the Mariners mentioned on the same headline at MLBTradeRumors. lol
Whether or not that ever could happen we have to wait and dream on.
Gotta’ love the Marlins. We will “absolutely” not trade Stanton this offseason…but, we really want to sign him before we enter the biggest trading period of the offseason. There’s absolutely no connection here…
Please don’t say that… That opens the window for ridiculous Stanton trades all winter long
When it comes to the Marlins, though, is there really any such thing as too “ridiculous” of a trade to consider?
have you seen some of the offers that are proposed?
The good news for the Ms is that they could sign just about anyone to play DH and it would be an improvement. Their OPS for the DH position last year was .567.
To put that in perspective, the worst OPS by position in all of MLB last year was at SS where the average OPS was .667. The Ms basically had a well below average SS at DH.
To put that further into perspective, among hitters with the qualifying number of PAs Zack Cozart had the lowest OPS in all of baseball at .568. The Ms basically had the worst hitter in all of baseball at DH.
I don’t like the thought of signing Butler. His numbers have fallen off a cliff over the past 2 years, and Seattle can NOT afford to take a chance of signing a DH will this trend at this point! It’s gotta be either VMart or Cruz.
As an M’s fan, I really would love to sell the farm for Stanton and sign Lester. I don’t think that’s happening though, but I’d love to go after a guy like Sandoval (if we can get him away from San Fran as he is a FA) and Lester. We need a DH and while VMart is the top DH out there, I like Sandoval better because he can play more than just one position. I’d rather have flexibility out there along with a good player than someone who is good at what he does, but can only DH. We need a bat though and I really think we should go after Lester.
More then 1 position? He can play 3B, 1B and DH. You’ll have Seagar for 3B, so he can DH and play 1B, just like VMart.
And Seager can’t play every day and is a top-notch defender. You have Sandoval there as a back-up which allows Seager to DH more often without losing his glove in the field.
Why would Sandoval want to sign in a pitcher-friendly park in which he doesn’t get an everyday position. Please realize these are people, they aren’t all going to go to the place with the most money. He’ll probably demand an everyday spot in the field. Signing a 100M backup 3B won’t go over well.
Put him at 1st then with Logan at DH. Have him play half the games with Seager at 3rd. You can make it work.
Except Sandoval would be the regular DH and act like the back-up catcher, playing 3rd every couple days or so. Can also play 1B for LoMo as well on different days.
Sandoval plays stellar D at 3B. I just don’t see him needing to switch to 1B, and he’ll prob refuse a DH position with his D skills.
Then where do you put Seagar? Hes worth 1.7 dWAR last year, thats not a guy you take off defense.
Sign the Panda. Move Cano to DH. I don’t care if he’s a gold glover, I want a Ring over a gold glove. Move Seagar to 2nd and Panda at 3rd. Cano stay DH and can focus 100% on hitting and we keep our 200+$$ safe from any injuries that could happen in the field. Keep Morrison at 1B and then when DJ Pederson is ready move Panda to 1st and DJ to 3rd. Or the M’s should just offer Walker and Brad Miller to COL for Car-Go.
Colorado shows up at your door with Cargo before you can hang up the phone.
Stanton is the type of “Franchise Player” you sell the Farm for…whatever it takes!
Agree on Lester too…Mariners bring him HOME!
The Marlins are not interested in prospects. If they do trade Stanton (I
think they will) they want a major league player(s). Their plan is to
compete now with or without Stanton, not rebuild and wait for more
prospects to develop.
The only possible destinations for Stanton are Boston (1st), LA (2nd), and Seattle (3rd). LA is stacked with outfielders so I dont think that will happen.The Team that I think is most likely to land Stanton is Boston. Boston has had their eye on Stanton since he was an 18 year old minor leaguer back in 2008. They have the money, the talent, and the winning pedigree.
The Cardinals, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Astros and Twins all have the combination of prospects/young players and cash to acquire and extend Stanton. The premise that Miami doesn’t want prospects is foolish. They sneeze at anything that costs money.
Mets, twins and Astros dont have a winning pedigree and neither do the Cubs. The Twins are more focused on acquiring pitching, the Astros are still in rebuild mode, and the Cubs too are rebuilding and looking for some pitching.
The Cardinals are actually 4th on my list of possible destinations for Stanton. Rangers are another interesting possibility. And I already mentioned Boston, Seattle, and LA.
I think I should clear my comment up. The Marlins, like any other team, will take a prospect deal if they’re blown away (duh). But their focus is not on acquiring prospects but more of a mix of potential talent, proven talent, and young, somewhat proven talent. They do not want a repeat of 2007.
Seattle has a winning pedigree?
They dont, but they have the talent, money, and also, Seattle is on the west coast. That helps too.
So winning pedigree is actually not a factor?
It is a factor, which is why he probably he wont get traded to Seattle. Like I mentioned above, He will probably end up in Boston or LA.
You realize that if Stanton gets traded, he doesn’t get to pick where he’s traded?
Yes, but the team that acquires Stanton will have to be not only a contender, but a team with money if they have any chance of extending him.
It doesn’t have to be. If a team is willing to give up the right package without needing a window to extend him they would get him. If they decide to trad him this off season, maybe a team figures they will control him for two seasons.
I know what you mean but I dont see that happening. A Stanton Package would be too big giving up too much for just two seasons worth of production even for a team on the cusp of a championship or a playoff appearance.
The likelihood that Stanton agrees to an extension before a trade is about as low as the chances that he agrees to one with Miami.
Thats my bad. I meant to put just 3rd not a close 3rd.
fixed
Marlins have more talent than Seattle. If he wants to win, there’s only a handful of teams in better shape than the Marlins for the next 3-5 years.
Im not sure I understand what you are trying to say.
If winning is as important to Stanton as you’re acting like, there’s not many teams that offer a better chance. Maybe the young team will interest him in an extension. .
Stanton has said it himself, winning and consistency is very important to him. And there are plenty of teams that can win consistently and have organizations that actually care about their franchise. The Cards, DOdgers, and Red Sox, just to name a few. Also, he would get paid ALOT more by those teams as well. The Marlins may be competitive next year or even into 2016, but with the controversial past of this organization, and the lack of a postseason berth in 11 years, there are MUCH better opportunities to win outside of Miami. All it takes is one team.
Scoreboard says otherwise. In a tough AL West the Mariners had more wins than the Marlins did in a weak NL East.
The Marlins blow it up. That is what they do, and winning pedigree has nothing to do with it
Yes it does. Stanton wants to play for a contender.
The Marlins wont be a contender even with Stanton.
They were this year without a full time 2nd baseman and without arguably one of the best young pitchers in baseball for most of the season. They are close.
The Cubs just signed a $5 million per year MANAGER. They certainly are the type of team that has the money and is going to go after winning NOW, not later.
I never said they dont have the money, I said they dont have a winning pedigree. If they do spend money this offseason and beyond its going to go towards building their pitching staff around their talented young core of position players.
A stanton deal wouldn’t make much sense for the Cubs.
Speaking to your point of LA being stacked with outfielders, the best way for them to land Stanton would be for them to center a package around Puig. Team-friendly deal, young, Cuban, the hat trick of everything the Marlins want. They’d probably need to add a top prospect like Urias to make that deal happen.
Thats an interesting deal. I dont know how willing the Dodgers would be though. I know the fish would jump all over it.
All the Marlins can take is prospects. They are INCREASING payroll to $60 million. Stanton would take up nearly 25% of that all by himself if the stays even one more year.
And getting rid of Stanton and possibly Cishek could free up alot of payroll.
What kind of return would Machado land Baltimore?
Is he available?
Just mentioned as a long shot in the article referenced above. He is someone I have lobbied for SS for the Mets, but in all honesty have a hard time valuating due to the injuries.
Missed that one.
I see the mets going after Starlin Castro. What do you think?
I would prefer someone with a more solid glove. Not counting Machado (or the top prospects) my wish list in order is Alexei Ramirez, Jose Ramirez, and either Escobar
DH dont seem to decline at the plate as much as position players do. Maybe because they dont take the wear and tear of playing in the field.
Dutton of the News Tribune neglects to note that Cuddyer’s huge improvement at the plate coincides with his arrival at Coors Field. Before he landed in hitter’s heaven, he never batted higher than .284, and even with the last two Coors-assisted years factored in, his career AVG is .279. His Home OPS last year was 521 points higher than his Road OPS. No, that’s not a typo; but that was an injury-shortened 49-game season. The previous year, his Home OPS was 145 points higher and his AVG was 45 points higher. Worth noting, he only hit 11 HR at Coors in 2013. How would that translate to Safeco at sea level, even if he were healthy?
Mariners should trade Iwakuma for Cespedes, Sign Vmart 16/per Sign Lester 25/per
Budget under 150M
Ackley LF
Jackson CF
Cano 2B
Vmart DH
Seager 3B
Ces RF
Lmo 1B
Zu C
Miller SS
Felix/Lester/Walker/Paxton/Elias(Hultzen)
That. is a Playoff team.