The Cardinals made it to the NLCS for the fourth straight year in 2014, but their season was overshadowed by Oscar Taveras’ tragic death last month.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Adam Wainwright, SP: $78MM through 2018
- Matt Carpenter, 3B: $49.5MM through 2019
- Yadier Molina, C: $45MM through 2017
- Jhonny Peralta, SS: $37.5MM through 2017
- Matt Holliday, OF: $35MM through 2016
- Jaime Garcia, SP: $9.75MM through 2015
- Aledmys Diaz, SS: $5.5MM through 2017
- Randy Choate, RP: $3MM through 2015
- John Lackey, SP: ~$500K through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by Matt Swartz)
- Jon Jay, OF (4.134): $4.5MM
- Peter Bourjos, OF (4.062): $1.6MM
- Daniel Descalso, INF (4.016): $1.4MM
- Lance Lynn, SP (3.119): $5.5MM
- Tony Cruz, C (3.105): $0.7MM
- Shane Robinson (2.141), OF: $0.5MM
Free Agents
One year after winning the NL Central with a 97-65 record, the Cardinals captured the division yet again, although this time they won 90 games and had to chase the Brewers most of the season. They also ran seven games ahead of their BaseRuns expected record, indicating that they weren’t as strong as they appeared.
Backing into a division championship betrays the kind of weakness many teams would love to have, of course, and the Cardinals’ 97-win season in 2013 was itself unsustainable, partially the result of a .330/.402/.463 line with runners in scoring position. Still, it’s worth looking closely at the Cards’ seven-win drop to see what it might mean going forward.
The 2014 Cardinals scored 160 runs fewer than the 2013 team did. Some offensive decline was inevitable, given the ’13 team’s hitting with scoring position and given that much of their 2013-14 offseason was dedicated to improving their defense — they let Carlos Beltran head to New York, signed veteran infielders Jhonny Peralta and Mark Ellis, traded David Freese for a good defensive outfielder in Peter Bourjos in a four-player deal, moved Matt Carpenter from second to third, and installed Kolten Wong at second. The moves worked, in a sense — the Cardinals’ team defensive efficiency improved from 21st in the Majors in 2013 to seventh in 2014. For all that, though, they actually allowed seven more runs than they did in 2013.
So what went wrong? Offensively, Taveras hit .239/.278/.312 in his first 248 plate appearances in the Majors. Outfielder Allen Craig had an awful half-season before being traded to Boston. Ellis batted a mere .180/.253/.213. And Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina, while strong overall, took significant steps backward. Among the Cardinals’ pitchers, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn had great seasons, but Shelby Miller often struggled, Michael Wacha only pitched 107 innings, and the team got disappointing work from Nick Greenwood, Kevin Siegrist, Jason Motte and Justin Masterson.
Of course, none of this means it’s likely the Cardinals will struggle next year, only that they had a merely good season, not a dominant one. They can expect more in 2015 out of some of the players who were disappointing or hurt, like Carpenter and Wacha. Others who struggled, like Craig, Ellis and Masterson, have already left the organization.
The Cardinals have finally graduated everyone who’s likely to contribute from their brilliant 2009 draft, so the flow of talent from their farm system might be about to slow down somewhat, but in the meantime, they’ll have plenty of controllable seasons from young or young-ish players like Carpenter, Miller, Wacha, Wong, Matt Adams, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, and they have talented veterans at most of their other key positions.
The Cardinals’ collection of position players therefore needs only minor tweaking. Infielder Daniel Descalso hit .242/.333/.311 in a 2014 season and also didn’t grade well defensively; the Cardinals have said they plan to tender him, although they could consider dealing him instead. If they do, they could make a small move to acquire another bench infielder to pair with Pete Kozma — Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz, who played at Class A+ and Double-A last season, could need more time in the minors.
The tragic death of Taveras, a potential superstar, hangs over the outfield. Potential right fielder Randal Grichuk is unestablished and center fielders Jon Jay (who had wrist surgery this month and is expected to be ready for spring training) and Bourjos have at times been inconsistent. The Cardinals can, however, combat uncertainty with numbers — in addition to Grichuk, Bourjos, Jay, and left fielder Matt Holliday, they have credible fill-ins in Thomas Pham and top prospect Stephen Piscotty. The Cards already traded Allen Craig, and there was talk could deal another outfielder this offseason. Taveras’ passing might change their thinking on that, however, and someone like Bourjos, slated to be Jay’s backup, might seem less replaceable now.
The rotation is set with Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Wacha and John Lackey, who has indicated he’ll honor the contract option that will pay him a league-minimum salary in 2015. Wainwright recently had surgery to fix some irritation in his elbow, but he’s expected to be ready in time for spring training. Jaime Garcia, who has a year and two team options left on the four-year deal he signed in 2011, will also try to return from surgery to fix thoracic outlet syndrome (a surgery the Cardinals weren’t thrilled about). It’s unclear when Garcia will return, whether he can stay healthy for any significant period, and what the Cardinals might be getting even if he is, so they’ll likely treat any contribution from him as a bonus. If anything goes wrong with the other five, the Cardinals have solid depth, with 2013 first-rounder Marco Gonzales possibly being the first to get the call. Gonzales could also work in relief.
The bullpen is set to lose Pat Neshek (who pitched 67 1/3 terrific innings after the Cards signed him to a minor league deal in February), the oft-injured Motte, and not much else. The Cardinals aren’t likely to re-sign Neshek or Motte, although they aren’t ruling out possible returns for either one. Rosenthal will likely return to the closer’s role, perhaps with the goal of reducing his high walk totals while remaining hard to hit. Martinez, who spent a chunk of his 2014 season in the Cardinals’ rotation, will be back as well, along with Seth Maness.
Lefty Randy Choate will be in the final season of a three-year deal, although the Cardinals could trade Choate (who they use in a specialist role that doesn’t allow him to get the amount of work he desires) and either use Siegrist as their top lefty or acquire another arm from outside the organization. Lefties batted .091/.205/.147 off Choate last season, but righties hit .357/.458/.481. If the Cardinals do look for a lefty pitcher, someone like Zach Duke or Neal Cotts, who are both usable against right-handed batters, might make sense. (Andrew Miller is also available, although at a significantly higher price.) Righty Sam Tuivailala, a third-round draft pick in 2010, could be the next hard thrower to make an impact in the Cardinals bullpen — he carved up Class A+ and Double-A this season, then threw 97 MPH in a couple September appearances in the big leagues.
Unlike last winter, when the Cardinals had an obvious hole at shortstop (which they filled with Jhonny Peralta, a signing that has gone brilliantly so far), this year the Cards don’t have many clear needs. They could therefore do most of their offseason shopping via small moves made on the trade market. Players like Descalso and Choate have limited value, but the Cardinals might be able to significantly upgrade somewhere by dealing an outfielder. They have expressed interest in finding a righty first baseman to pair with Adams, who posted a .528 OPS against lefties last year. Someone like Eric Campbell of the Mets or Tommy Medica of the Padres might fit the bill, or perhaps a Triple-A slugger like Jesus Aguilar of the Indians.
The Cardinals also could try to extend Lynn this offseason. They’re also planning to significantly increase payroll in the next several seasons, perhaps accounting for increased salaries for players like Lynn, Miller, Adams and Rosenthal, along with already-set increases for Carpenter. Even so, the Cardinals are in a good position going forward, since their deals for Wainwright, Holliday, Molina and Peralta aren’t backloaded. Eventually, the Cardinals might have to grapple with how long they’ll be able to depend on veterans like Wainwright, Molina and Peralta, but with that collection of stars and a large group of good, cheap players from their farm system, they appear set to contend again in 2015.
The Cardinals’ brief offseason has already been touched by tragedy. The sudden deaths of Taveras and his girlfriend Edilia Arvelo were awful not only for the Cardinals, but for Taveras’ home country. It’s impossible to know how the team might respond on the field, and that sort of speculation is outside MLBTR’s purview anyway. It seems early even to acknowledge, as we do here, that the organization will go on, and will pursue an offseason plan based partially upon the reality that it just lost a player in the worst way possible. Some things are bigger than baseball. Here’s wishing the Cardinals the best as they begin what will be a difficult winter.
Does anyone know what their payroll flexibility will be like? Will John Lackey getting the league minimum free up enough space to trade for a player in a walk year with a large salary?
Cardinals have a ton of payroll flexibility, all of their young players have allowed their payroll to fall from 6th in the league to 14th. Forbes had the cardinals as the most profitable team in 2013 netting 65 million. Ownership has said that payroll will rise when it needs to. I think the death of Oscar Taveras will necessitate that.
Better give them a competitive balance pick though!
Couldn’t resist.
Lackey has stated that he will honor that agreement and will get the league minimum.
I am still in shock about Oscar Taveras. I would have loved watching him for years to come.
With that being said, the Cardinals are one of my favorite organizations to follow because of how they run solely on the good of the baseball team. Hoping for another Red Sox and Cardinal WS in the near future
Red Sox v Cardinals WS is the last thing I want to see!
Really? I like the match-up or “rivalry” because they have been two of the more dominant organizations over the past 10-12 years in terms of Championships and WS appearances.
So let’s not have them in the World Series, and spread the wealth around a bit. Some teams haven’t been there in a few years, and other haven’t won in decades/
Correct me if I am wrong, but a fan should root for their team to win every year.
I don’t know. You might get chastised for not being objective!
Exactly. I’d rather see Miami v Houston or Chicago v Baltimore, got to mix things up a bit. I would be very very happy not to see St Louis, San Francisco, Boston or New York in the series for a decade.
You are not a fan of any of those teams I am guessing
Actually I had a great time routing for SF in 2010 (was living in Santa Cruz at the time) but after 3 WS wins in 5 years I am ready for other teams to get a shot.
FEAR THE BEARD Brian Wilson had it before Duck Dynasty!!!
I am open to other teams getting their shot as well, but if SF made the playoffs next year with the likes of PIT, CHC, or MIA, are you telling me you wouldn’t be pulling for your team to make another run?
Nope, I would be rooting for the Cubs. If the Cubs weren’t in there it would be a tougher call. I dislike dynasties immensely. I think parity is good for the game.
That may be a product of moving so much too. I have lived in 12 different cities in the last 20 years.
I guess I am in the same boat. I would love the story of ending the 100+ year drought, but that is because of being a baseball fan in general, other than that I would root for my hometown team. I would be extremely torn with a WS between CHC and my home team
Actually the little dynasty the Giants have put together is a change from the variety of teams that were winning championships from 2001 through about 2010. In that span, 9 different teams won the World Series. The Red Sox were the one team with multiple championships in that period. Then the Cardinals won another, the Giants won another, the Sox won another, and then the Giants won another. 9 teams in the last 14 years is still quite a variety. You could say that, based on the laws of averages, we’ll likely see a team win it all in 2015 that either hasn’t been there in a while, or never has been there at all. You could also say that the Giants winning 3 rings in the last 5 years is a product of an era where elite talent is somewhat scarce.
From 2004 to 2014:
Giants 3
Red Sox 3
St Louis 2
Yankees 1
White Sox 1
Phillies 1
That is not a very diverse group at all.
I believe he was talking about appearances. Since 2000, 16 different teams have been in the WS
When he said “9 different teams won the World Series” I assumed he was talking about winning
Oh that is my fault, I misread it. but from 01-03, a different team won it each year so he wasn’t incorrect
LOL You are correct, sir!
That’s a different span. I’m talking about the starting point immediately after the end of the Yankees dynasty. As soon as that ended, a wide variety of teams won it all. Again, 9 teams won the World Series in 10 years from 2001 through 2010. And again, this period of 3 championships in 5 years for the Giants, along with repeats from the Cardinals and Red Sox, is actually a change from the previous decade.
Cards have to get a rightfielder. No Free agents are really that appealing maybe Michael Morse, or if they like him Tomas. Their best bet is likely coming via the trade, Upton, Heyward, Cargo, maybe Bautista, all possibilities.
It’s not really the Cards MO to take on 1 year rentals in exchange for the farm
see matt holliday
That was also a trade deadline deal and correct me if I am wrong, the largest contract the Cards have ever handed out. Any of the options you listed will surely cost more than that
I actually think Cargo could be had for very little, given the risk and salary. That’s true it was a trade deadline deal but they also tried to trade for him before Oakland got him in the winter, for coincidentally offering Cargo. I doubt bautista is an option, but I think there’s a good chance a braves outfielder gets traded this off season and despite losing Taveras cards still have several good pieces. Plus I really feel like the cards are wasting Martinez using him in the bullpen, I think it would be better to trade him to a team who can stretch him out as a starter and give him a chance to live up to his potential.
Consider the lack of quality hitters available to a point where I’m reading that Marlon Byrd is in demand, I don’t think Mr. Cargo will be had for very little, if he’s had at all.
Of course it will cost more. It’s called inflation. But he was talking about mortgaging the farm for a rental, which the Cardinals did with Holliday. He could have signed elsewhere in the ’09-10 offseason and they’d still be left with a farm comprised of Colby, Shelby, and (as was perceived at the time) a bunch of not much else.
They’d be more likely to do it if they were in the AL West.
The Cardinals have options available. Holiday and Jay combined with Grichuk, Bourjos, Pham and Piscotty should make up at least a decent OF in 2015.
they need to do better than that in right field
Yep. People gush about Grichuk and Piscotty, but both were pretty underwhelming in 2014. Maybe if you could siphon Grichuk’s power and give it to Piscotty you’d have a legit RF prospect. Oh well, at least both can play some defense, I guess.
Well, Wong had an absolutely terrible cup of coffee in 2013 and struggled early this year before putting it all together, and I hope that a combination of Grichuk and Piscotty can do the same.
That being said, the Cards do need to go get a quality Plan B, if for no other reason than that the bench needs a major upgrade. Still, with those prospects waiting in the wings, it also doesn’t make sense to break the bank trading for a star quality player.
You didn’t mention the one right fielder on the market that I would like to see. Cuddyer. A veteran like Beltran was when he came to Saint Louis and the guy hit extremely well this season when he was healthy. Just like Beltran, if Cuddyer can stay healthy, he’s one of the best right fielders in the game. The fact that he was injured last season and is aging takes away his value, but he has the potential to be another Beltran-like signing for any team the way Carlos had it with Saint Louis.
Giving up a 1st round pick to sign Cuddyer doesn’t sound like the Cardinals to me
he was an option until he got a qualifying offer not now
What do you think about Cespedes? Red Sox need pitching depth.
everything I hear about Cespedes does not sound right for the cardinals. There’s a reason why the team first oriented Red Sox traded for Cespedes and now want to trade him immediately.
Too many Cardinal pitchers regressed in 2014. And what’s worse about their stats (especially giving up more runs then 2013) is that pitching dominated in MLB this year and offese was the worst it’s been in almost 40 years. As for Peralta – I saw too many times where he didn’t make plays that were routine for Kozma in 2013.
The NL Central is joining the AL East in being the 2 divisions that are heading south. That will keep the Cardinals competitive. If their pitching comes back they can win the division again in 2015. But with Yadi hitting worse, Holliday aging and slowing up, and Taveras gone, this is a team that will be in dire need of a middle-of-the-order thumper in the not too distant future.
I would say that they need more balanced production for the money they’re spending on veterans under $10 million. They wasted money on players like Lackey, Masterson, AJ, Motte, Choate, and Ellis when they could’ve gotten more WAR from Albert Pujols alone. There, I said it. His AAV makes up almost all of those players combined and still would’ve been worth more all by himself in 2014. There’s a possibility that the effects of losing Albert Pujols may start to expose that need of the middle of the order bat you mentioned, which is becoming more and more scarce in today’s game…
Ummm the Cardinals paid those guys less than $12MM combined and the only one still under contract is Choate. You would also have to subtract Adams WAR if you’re somehow trying to say they should have paid Pujols $250MM
They paid them a lot more than $12MM. I’m not talking about WAR at 1B for the Cardinals. I’m talking about the “smart move” narrative when it comes to letting Albert Pujols go. They spent that money on more players that gave them less value as a whole.
How do you not talk about WAR at 1B when that is the only place Pujols could play. And not even mention Pujols was a DH for over 40 games which finally helped him stay healthy. Every team has bad players whether they sign Albert Pujols or not. Also, they don’t owe any of those bad players $175MM for their decline.
You also forgot to mention that Wacha and Piscotty are only part of the organization because of the picks they gained when Pujols left. Pujols is not the answer to their problems.
this team does not miss Albert Pujols, it misses the production they had from rightfield from beltran and craig. Right field is the gaping hole that has to be fixed.
Yes they do. It’s just hard to accept when the media shoves the “smart move” narrative down the fans’ throats.
Pujols’ replacement (Adams) and their biggest free-agent signing since Pujols left (Peralta) combined for 6.3 fWAR and about 60% of Pujols’ salary. Pujols was at 3.3 WAR. If you take all the worst players and add them up, yeah those players are going to be worse than Pujols. If you actually look at players they wouldn’t have if they had paid Albert, it’s a no-brainer they made the right move.
And yet 6 added veterans who were paid more as a whole combined for a negative WAR as a whole.
So they should of played with 19 players and somehow still got Adams WAR out of him while not playing 1B and they could have finished with the same record and still on the hook for $175MM to an aging Pujols? No thanks
well that’s nice to cherry pick players after the seasons over and say well if you only didn’t pay those players you could afford pujols. Every team gives bad contracts and you cant control injuries they happen. The cardinals actually do a better job than most at avoiding them. See the LA Angels with Pujols and Hamilton.
No they don’t. Because having Albert means no Yadi, no Wainwright, no Wacha, no ability to keep guys like Lynn and nowhere to play Adams. And it’s about a lot more than Albert right now, sure now he would help a lot of teams. But the last 4 to 5 years of that contract would be brutal. That’s what makes it a smart move.
Wrong. It means no Masterson, no Ellis, no Pierzinski, no Choate, no Motte, who were paid more than Pujols as a group in 2014, and yet combined for a negative WAR. Just having Pujols there alone would’ve given them more value.
They WERE NOT paid more than Pujols. You’re making things up. You can’t add the total salary of players that didn’t even play there all year. Heck AJP got the pro-rated league minimum from the Cardinals, so about $250,000.
Again, we can’t ONLY look at it from this year’s number or perspective. Pujols would’ve absolutely helped this year. I don’t think anyone thought Albert would be done as a positive contributor by 2014. The smart move side comes into play when you consider that the Cardinals aren’t going to have to pay him like that when he isn’t one anymore. It means not having to have a roster FULL of Masterson/Ellis/AJ in significant roles in those years.
Beltran came in and put up comparable numbers to Albert in 2012. Sure, the Cardinals are lacking that middle of the order power bat, and yes, that bat was Albert for many years.
a good point Beltran put up 5.1 war for the cardinals in the same period Pujols up 4.4 for half the price and none of the long term albatross.
judging by the Angels logo it sounds like you are trying to justify your teams contract they gave him. The difference between Matt Adams and Albert Pujols is not that Huge Pujols is a 3 war player at this point in career (last year .7). Adams is a 2 war player. Adams is trending up Pujols trending down. Replacing Adams with Pujols does not solve our problem, just makes it more difficult because there is less money to spend.
The Cardinals aren’t missing Albert. They got his best years and he left for more money (after saying time and time again that the money didn’t matter). He had the opportunity to be a Cardinal for life and he turned it down. Sad, but the Cardinals got a lot more value in return with the draft picks and the extra salary not committed to what will ultimately become an albatross for the Angels.
I think you’re going to see the Cardinals involved in a lot of big names on the trade market this winter. I’m not worried about the pitching but they could definitely use some more power on offense.
Am a big Cardinal fan.
Their history for the past 50 years is always to have a middle of the order run producer. They might get sparks elsewhere, but from over the hill veterans such as Richie Allen, George Hendrick and Jack Clark, the Cardinals found guys that could drive in the crucial runs in the big games. What they have concerns me, especially when they don’t have much speed at the top of the order. And the defense could be better. But the pitching is what is the top priority.
Pitching is fine. Wainwright, Wacha, Lackey, Lynn, Miller, Gonzales, Martinez, Lyons. Obviously if Wainwright and Wacha both get injured, they’re in trouble. But that rotation has a lot of upside and depth.
Wong will probably be the usual #2 hitter next year, which is already quite a bit of speed at the top of the order.
I hope so. Need a big bat in that lineup. Holiday and Yadi are aging and on the decline.
PItching still has the ability to grow, i agree though the team is missing a middle of the order bat. Peralta is great for what he is, but he’s not a number 4 hitter it’s not fair to expect that of him, it’s not what he is.
Two words: Matt Adams. I expect his power to rebound quite nicely next year.
Yah I could see that, but they still need another bat to push peralta down in the order
Not really. Carpenter, Wong, Holliday, Adams, Molina, then Peralta makes a pretty good 1 to 6 in the batting order, at least against right-handed pitchers.
Put a middle of the order bat in there and that lineup will look way deeper.
Finally somebody else who saw Peralta playing at about 50% at his SS position. He stays close to 2B but doesn’t even attempt balls hit near or over 2B into center field, even slow and easy ones. Only stops the ones hit right to him. He leaves such a huge gap to his right, that Matt Carpenter had to play in and close to the SS position often as Peralta NEVER goes for anything hit more than 3-4 ft away from him. All of the pitchers had base hits against them that Peralta allowed by his casual, almost lazy play.
He keeps his errors down that way, and Matt Adams actually hurt himself stretching so many times, many more than an average 1B, to catch balls that Peralta throws 8-9 feet from the bag. Peralta is a 13 yr veteran and has never been on the DL.
He actually doesn’t break a sweat at the plate or on the field. As an HGH user, he certainly has figured out how to play the MLB system to his advantage.
Lackey might be the lowest paid guy on the roster, unless of course they have bring someone up to play at the league minimum but for 2014 it was 500,000 anyway.
I think the Cardinals are fine in the outfield after the tragic death of Oscar Taveras. Holliday, Jay, Grichuk, Piscotty, and if you keep Bourgos is a good outfield. You go with what’s rolling in RF. Gonna be a good team next year
Grichuk is not an every day player. I really hope they address this in the off-season and with plenty of money to spend, I think they will
I think he could be an everyday player, but I don’t think that should happen next year. I want them to look for (and find) and upgrade too. But I’m not sure who or how.
I kind of see his ceiling as a ryan ludwick type of a player, a good role player but not a guy you want in the middle of your lineup, and since the cards need a middle lineup bat that needs to come from right field
I think Ludwick might end up being a fair comparison, but Grichuk should end up as a much better defender. I think there’s a place in an everyday lineup for that. But the overall point is well taken, the Cardinals need a more reliable middle of the order hitter and RF is really for the only opening.
Except the Ryan Ludwick we saw in St. Louis was a middle of the order bat?
Only for one season. Other than his career year of 2008, Ludwick’s bat has been rather ordinary throughout his whole career.
for one year, other than that he’s been a complimentary player
If Matheny would go with the best option at the time (the Hot Hand) that might be fine, but he plays favorites too much, with no regard to what they’re doing on the field and at the plate. We need someone that he cannot rationally sit on the bench except for the random day off.
You don’t really want to go with the hot hand all the time. When you have guys with quality track records get off to slow starts, you should still play them expecting them to turn it around until it’s clear that they won’t (e.g. Allen Craig). Also, there never was a hot hand in RF for most of the year nor at 2B during the first half. With RF pretty much up for grabs in 2015, expect Matheny to indeed go with the hot hand most of the time.
There’s really no need to shuffle lefty relievers. Choate is still a quality (although admittedly somewhat expensive) LOOGY, which is just fine in combination with Freeman and Siegrist, along with the still promising Greenwood and Lyons, and top prospect Gonzalez. Then again, maybe we should trade Choate in order to make room for all these promising lefties.
With Taveras having been traded to the Angels (too soon?), don’t look for the Cards to trade an outfielder, especially after having given away Ramsey in the Masterson deal. In fact, I’d like to see them sign a corner outfielder who could either be a quality bat off the bench or insurance in case the combination of Grichuk and Piscotty isn’t quite ready for the Big Show, like how Ellis was expected to do the same for Wong last year had his bat not, you know, suddenly fallen off the face of the Earth. The bench needs a major upgrade, anyway.
I do hope the Cards manage to bring back either Motte (on an incentive-laden deal) or Neshek, as we now seem to be quite short on quality late-inning righty relievers. Rosenthal makes me nervous with all the walks he gives up, and he, Martinez, and the groundball-specialist Maness are all we really have left from what was not so long ago a major strength. We have quite a bit of money available, so let’s spend some of it on the bullpen.
Well written