The Manny Ramirez era in Los Angeles is long over, but Hanleywood has given the Dodgers plenty of lasting memories in recent years. Hanley Ramirez is now hitting the free agent market and whether he winds up back with the Dodgers or with someone else, he’s all but certain to get paid big bucks.
Strengths/Pros
Offensively, Ramirez rates as one of the highest-impact free agents available. Last season, Ramirez slashed .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games for the Dodgers. His career track record is even stronger with a batting line of .300/.373/.500. There aren’t many shortstops who offer the kind of pop that Ramirez can, either. He has yet to hit less than ten homers in a campaign and that low point comes from a partial season of play (2011). Over the last nine years, Ramirez has averaged 21 homers per season.
Ramirez has never played in a particularly homer-friendly environment, but he still boasts strong career numbers. With the Dodgers, Ramirez posted a .299/.368/.506 line in his two-and-a-half seasons, numbers that are eerily similar to his career slash line. When stacking his 2014 wRC+ against this winter’s other free agents (I modified the free agent leaderboard constructed by Steve Adams to exclude players with options that were exercised, like Ben Zobrist and Denard Span), he rates third among qualified hitters with a 135 rating. That puts him ahead of guys like Melky Cabrera and just a hair behind the big bat of Nelson Cruz.
Ramirez turned in a 3.4 WAR this past season and a particularly strong 5.0 WAR in 2013. He was a massive offensive weapon for the Dodgers in 2013 with a wOBA of .446. His closer-to-mortal .362 wOBA in 2014 is still quite strong, also good for No. 3 on the aforementioned free agent leaderboard. For his career, he has offered better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (16.6% and 9.6%) and his walk rate of 10.9% this past season was actually a step up from his total body of work. Both UBR and BsR scored him as an above-average baserunner this past season and are fond his career body of work on the bases.
A three-time All-Star, he shines especially bright when compared to the rest of the crop at the shortstop position. After Ramirez, the next best options are Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, and Asdrubal Cabrera. While all three are starter material, Ramirez clearly is of a different caliber and figures to out-earn all of them significantly in terms of average annual value and contract length.
Of course, Ramirez’s future might not be at shortstop. He also has 98 games of experience at third base to his credit, the bulk of which came in 2012 with the Marlins. The top of the third base market is healthier than at short, with options like Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley, but Ramirez offers the most offensive potential of the three. A team could sign Ramirez to play shortstop, for now, and shift him over to third base down the line depending on the needs and opportunities that come up.
Weaknesses/Cons
Ramirez’s health has been an issue for years now. He’s phenomenal when he’s on the field, but it’s hard to count on getting a full season out of him given his track record. We first saw the injury bug strike in 2011 where he played in just 92 games, and in 2013, Ramirez took the field in just 86 games, his lowest output since becoming a full-time player.
Ramirez first started having shoulder trouble in 2010 and it only got worse in 2011 when he injured himself trying to make a diving catch in August of that year, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. In 2013, he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed a month after undergoing surgery. When he got back on the field, his hamstring cost him significant time. This past season, Ramirez was held back by several injuries, including a strained oblique.
While there are tons of great things to say about Ramirez’s bat, his fielding is not at all on the same level. Ramirez’s -15.6 UZR/150 rating from this past season is atrocious and his -8.8 career mark is pretty ugly as well. Defensive runs saved tells the same story – he cost the Dodgers nine runs in 2014 and has a -77 tally for his career.
I mentioned the possibility of a shift from shortstop to third base as a positive in the previous section, but here’s the other (and, maybe, more realistic take): a club signing Ramirez to a multi-year pact will likely have to put him at third base at some point to try and cover up his defensive shortcomings. When you look at his history of poor defense and injuries and consider that he’s on the wrong side of 30 (he’ll be 31 by Opening Day), there’s little reason to believe it’ll get better.
Ramirez will most definitely turn down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, meaning that any other club signing him will forfeit its top unprotected pick.
Personal
Ramirez was born and raised in the Dominican Republic and attended Adbentista High School. Ramirez is married with three children – two sons and a daughter. In the summer of 2013, his youngest son showed everyone that he has a gorgeous swing, just like his father (Vine link).
Market
The Dodgers and Ramirez were discussing an extension in the early part of the season, but the two sides agreed to table talks when they could not bridge a sizable gap. A return is not out of the question, but rival evaluators told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney in September that they were sensing that the Dodgers would offer Ramirez the QO with the expectation that he would decline, sign elsewhere, and net them draft compensation. Of course, the new regime in L.A. headed by Andrew Friedman might feel differently.
More recently, Ramirez has reportedly told teams that he’s willing to play a position other than shortstop, which should make clubs with third base needs and possibly corner outfield needs more open to adding him. However, some clubs might have reservations about signing him and simply dropping him into the outfield. After all, he’s never played a single game there in his pro career.
The Yankees might be the most obvious fit for Ramirez, but reports this week indicated that they weren’t likely to pursue many of the big-name free agents on the market. Of course, as Steve pointed out in the linked piece, that report mentioned many top free agents by name, but Ramirez’s name was absent. If the Yankees are willing to pay market price for Ramirez, they can slot him in at shortstop in the short-term and transition him over to third or a corner outfield spot later on in the contract.
The Mariners and Giants could enter the mix as well, with San Francisco looking at him as a third base or left field option. The Tigers might make sense from a need standpoint, but they have so many large contracts on the books looking forward that adding a significant deal for Ramirez might be tough. A reunion with the Red Sox might be possible since he is willing to play third, and they’ve reportedly already reached out to him. The White Sox have money to spend, few significant long-term contracts on the books and lack a clear long-term option at third base. The A’s are in need of a shortstop and with a lefty-heavy offense, Ramirez’s big right-handed bat would be a welcome addition, though it’s hard to see his salary fitting into the budget. The Mets also probably won’t spend the money necessary to sign Ramirez, but the need is there.
Expected Contract
Ramirez was reportedly asking for over $130MM in the spring give up a chance at testing the open market, presumably on a five- or six-year pact. Given the lucrative deals signed by Jacoby Ellsbury ($153MM) and Shin-Soo Choo ($130MM) last winter, an AAV of $20MM or more seems feasible for Ramirez, who offers major offensive production at a premium position.
Even when considering Ramirez’s spotty health record and weak glove, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t comes away as the highest paid positional player of the winter. Last winter, Ellsbury got a $153MM, seven-year pact, despite his own checkered injury history. I think Ramirez will approach that AAV with one less year, netting a six-year, $132MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Welcome too New York Hanley…..5yr 118mil…….
If you actually think the yankees are signing Ramirez you’re dead wrong
Yankess need him…..& he will take less too play for them because Jeter was his Idol growing up…..
Hanley isn’t going to take a discount just to play 3B in the same stadium Jeter played SS.
He will get SS for first three years….of the contract
Cool. The only place he could possibly go and be a defensive upgrade over his predecessor.
The funniest part about that is that Hanley isn’t a better defender than Jeter. His UZR in 2014 was worse than Jeter’s. And as I have said before. This is Jeter coming off an injury at 40. So, nope. Hanley Ramirez is not a better defender than Jeter.
Ha…kudos sir. Should have looked that up, but pretty funny. As a Dodgers fan, I have no doubt that you are correct!
That’s what everyone said about the Yankees last year before they spent 500mm dollars
If Cashman signs Hanley he needs to be fired, and this is coming from a Mets who enjoys the Yankees terribleness right now
Also, they need to lower their luxury tax because I believe it is .75% per every M over 189M
The number one goal is putting a winning team on the field consistently. Money, age, and everything else comes second.
So yes, the luxury tax payment is an issue, but not making the playoffs 3 years in a row is a MUCH bigger issue.
If you want to make the playoffs, build the team with a core that YOUR TEAM develops. Look at the 1996-2001 era Yankees. They developed their own core in Jeter, Posada, Petite, and Rivera and then spent money to keep those players and spent money on free agents to finish off the team.
Look at the Royals and Giants this year they have their own core that they developed (Royals: Gordon, Cain, Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas, and the Big 3, Giants: Posey, Sandoval, MadBum, Belt, Panik, and Crawford). Further with the Giants, they’re spending money to keep that core and compliment it with outside free agents. Unfortunately, the Royals can’t afford all its great players.
Bottomline: The Yankees need to stop trying to build a playoff team with a bunch of guys nearing the end of their prime/it’s already over. It’s not a good idea because you end up over paying players and being stuck with them for too many years.
If you think there is only one pathway that leads to the playoffs, you are greatly mistaken.
Look at the homegrown talent of the Cardinals.
Look at the spending might of the Dodgers.
Look at the numerous trades by the A’s.
etc. etc.
If the Royals stuck to developing talent only, they would not have James Shields, who was a crucial cog in their magical season. And their biggest contributor, Lorenzo Cain, came in a trade, as did Wade Davis, 1/3 of the big 3.
Yes, developing talent is nice, but winning is nicer. Winning trumps everything. Always. 2009 Yankees spent half a mil, then won the championship. It happens. It’s all good.
The real bottom line is: there are multiple ways to build a winning team.
There are multiple ways to build a team but every team in the playoffs this year had players that they developed and came at lower costs, unlike the Yankees who had Betances, Ivan Nova, Pineda, and Adam Warren. Considering the two starters were on the DL most of the year, the two relievers alone are not enough, especially since Warren isn’t that good.
So what you’re saying is every team in the playoffs had players at lower costs, as well as the Yankees. And of course, you forgot to mention Whitley, Almonte, Greene, Phelps, Cervelli, Kelley, and Solarte before he was traded.
So, yes, like you said, every team had cost controlled players.
But all that doesn’t even matter, because the bottom line is there are multiple ways to build a contender. And history shows us such. Hard to argue with facts. But I’m sure you will try…
Yeah, but Cashman’s I’m gonna spend all this money on free agents way clearly isn’t working and its probably never going to work because he’s stuck with all these old players in decline for multiple years.
Except it did in 2009 when they spent half a mil in the off season on Tex, CC, and AJ, then won the championship. Just saying, hard to argue with facts, but you keep insisting.
Not to mention the biggest contributor that off season was ARod, who was given the largest salary to any MLB player. Ever.
And the World Series MVP was Matsui, who was also given a large paycheck as well.
So, once again, it shows that every team works its own way to win.
You can believe what you want… but facts are facts, and therefore, not up for debate. Good day.
I’d honestly be happier with that than the Ellsbury contract. I really like the bat, and think that’s actually a pretty good price compared to what some other elite players have gone for.
he’s going to get signed by the yankees and will perform well. jeter is his idol, he will do everything possible to be the best he can under the city lights
Its hard to call where Hanley is going to land.
One side of me thinks its more likely to be in the AL as he can DH towards the end of the contract or even most of the second half of it if its 6 or 7 years, but i see him still being able to play a solid third bag for at least a few more years, bringing the NL into play.
Hes definitely going to get paid, absolutely the premium offensive player on the market.
Will he get too long considering his injury concerns and declining glove? For sure, but thats what it will take to get him.
As i said, so hard to call it but if you pushed me id say the Yankees, as i dont believe for one minute they will pass over ALL the big names, they have a need, and they are an AL club, which may help for the reason i said earlier, but frankly, i say NYY with little confidence.
Makes sense. Theoretically he can play two positions where they have need, 3rd base and SS (although his defense there is questionable at best). I know they want to bring Headley back, but Hanley is by far more marketable and has the star power and cache you need to play for the Yankees. Maybe the Mariners if they think he can play short? The only other team that makes sense given his contract needs and payroll is the Dodgers. Cubs possibly as a dark horse. The more expensive they are the fewer suitors can afford them.
I can’t see the cubs getting involved with all their highly regarded prospects competing to play the IF.
Probably not, but there’s no telling how many of those highly regarded prospects may be moved for pitching. Or he could possibly be stashed in the outfield. I can’t see him as a shortstop for them though. Too many much better options.
Yeah, I highly doubt the Cubs’ll be interested in him. But, if the Red Sox don’t get Pablo or Headley, meaning one goes to the Giants and the other the Yankees, I’d say that’ll be Hanley’s most likely destination, despite not being a lefty bat.
EDIT: Just saw that you already responded to the same question (oops), feel no need to respond.
Im not sure the Mariners would be willing to take on another massive contract alongside King Felix and Cano, it could leave them hamstrung for a years.
As you say the more they cost the smaller the list of teams who can realistically get a deal done.
I cant see it being anyone outside of the Yanks, Dodgers and Red Sox, who else has any sort of need and the funds to close the deal?
Red Sox would prefer a lefty or switch hitter. They could afford him, but I think he’s more of a fallback plan. I still think there is more money in the Mariners coffers. They have a ton of youth and I don’t think a third large contract would really be crippling for them.
Yes i dont see him going back to Boston again really, you could be right about Seattle, depends how far ownership want to push the boat out.
I didnt really consider Detroit, funds wise if Illitch thinks its worth he will of course sanction it, and Castellanos was horrid defensively but…i cant see us taking on another monster contract we have so many, but i wouldnt be 100% sure we are totally out of the running.
I wouldn’t be sure you’re out of the running either. Although at this point another large contract would probably be a very bad idea for the Tigers. You could presumable be losing both VMart and Hunter’s money though. Illich always seems to find a bit of money under a rock here and there and make some deals no one saw coming. Although if they don’t rebuild the bullpen before they take on anything else, it won’t really matter who else they sign.
He is the kind of player Detroit seems to collect though. High upside offense and not-so-great defense. If V-Mart leaves before Hanley signs it isn’t impossible to think they would try to add Hanley’s bat.
I agee. I can’t see many going for Hanley but it be interesting to see if Blue Jays or White Sox make a splash by adding him. Of course, history isn’t in our side that they will.
I do like the Mariners as a fit and think the White Sox are a nice dark horse. Giants make some sense too, as do the Yankees, Red Sox and of course Dodgers. That’s enough to get him paid probably, and I’d wager a few more teams we haven’t given much serious thought to will enter the mix.
With top free agents, a few teams always emerge. Last year at this time people were saying “Sure, Seattle makes sense for Cano, but they’ll never pay him enough to top New York. Their interest is just a ploy by Roc Nation to drive up the Yankees’ bid.”
I think it’s often difficult to envision the market for a top-flight star-caliber player, but those markets do typically develop.
Another dark horse name I have been hearing about for Hanley is the Astros.
I like Houston as a candidate to make one fairly large, unexpected signing this offseason. Miami as well (though probably not Hanley based on their past).
I would agree with that.
They are prepared to stretch payroll by around $20m or so this winter according to many reports, so they would have the capacity, and it would chime in nicely with all their quality prospects starting to filter through, but its the NL angle long term that puts me off them in this race.
For Miami’s out of the blue signing, I’m thinking maybe Scherzer or K-Rod.
I agree, we’ve finally got our TV deal settled out, and we are expected to add 20 mil in payroll (at least).
I’m not sure if the Mariners will stretch payroll that much though. They went into 2014 with a $90MM payroll. Do they really want to have 3 $20MM a year players?
Depends on how comfortable they are with continuing to increase their payroll. Their new TV deal, signed last year, is reportedly worth around $2B, so there’s reason to believe it’ll go up. If you saw their team president’s comments earlier this fall about the payroll increasing, he said they overshot payroll by $17MM or so, and ownership is now fine with it going even higher after this season’s success.
If the M’s jump from a $90MM payroll team to a $120-130MM payroll club, they probably don’t mind too much having three players in that pay bracket.
I have heard that they are willing to raise payroll, but still kind of think people are getting ahead of themselves thinking it will be that much. They are still owned by a large publicly traded company, I doubt they are going to keep pushing the payroll up because they can, but rather look to make money.
Seattle didn’t even make sense for Cano, since they had Franklin who was projected to be as valuable as Cano but for the league minimum.
I said Mariners in the Prediction contest. But, I would not be surprised if he returns to the Dodgers and plays 3rd.
With the Yankees though, they really can’t afford to give Hanley DH time with Teixeira, Beltran, and A-Rod (possibly McCann too) already requiring it.
My reply to most the comments here: why would playing in the same stadium that Derek Jeter played in make Hanley play better? Now that is *living* on #narrativestreet, YIKES!
Ha, his son’s swing looks a lot like Manny’s. Maybe it’s just the hair.
Hanley’s dreads aint got nothin on Manny’s
Please don’t use Hanleywood Zach
More MLB teams than people think can afford Hanley. At 6/132 he would still be less expensive than many recent marque free agents. Who would have though Cano would sign in Seattle for 10/240 this time last year?
The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants (if the lose Panda), Astros, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and White Sox could all use an IF that can hit like Hanley. The list will expand even more if teams think he can play the OF. I really dont see how his market will be limited.
I am with you. Just hard to predict with those later teams because, as history has shown, they aren’t the likeliest to make splash.
True but I would have said the same thing about the Mariners this time last year and the Angels around this time in 2011.
We keep hearing about the lack of right handed power in baseball today. Hanley is the top of the market this year, I’m sure someone will overpay.
headed to Oakland.
Yep and Lester is staying in Oakland too.
The should probably sign Scherzer then too just to make sure they have a good enough rotation to compete.
Don’t forget David Robertson to sure up that bullpen and pitching staff.
And trade for Ryan Howard too. I heard he’s available
Trading for Clayton Kershaw next
They could also use A-Rod as backup for Donaldson.
Nice run folks.
I hope cashman don’t sign him
Honestly I’d so much rather have Hanley than Sherzer or Lester. I think he will be the most likely to live up to his contract.
The Red Sox or M’s could sign Hanley. The M’s have a new large TV contract and they are desperate for offense, so they could be a possibility. If the Yankees spend money they would spend it on starting pitching, so they are out. The Dodgers want to lower payroll so they are out.
Why are the Yankees out, when their biggest problem last year was lack of offense. They struggled to win even with Tanaka/Pineda starting?
My pick for him is BlueJays. He’ll be LF
Not second ?
even tho Lawrie is injury prone I see him in LF. Would be sick tho to have Hanley and Reyes turning double plays
The Jays trying to be the Marlins of the north still?
I feel like the suggestions (mostly from Buster Olney) that he could play left field have come from, well, left field. I know LF is often considered the place where the least capable outfielders go if they can hit, but for someone who is already poor defensively to be expected to play a new position adequately (especially one that requires at least some mobility and health) seems farfetched to me. As far as I’m concerned Hanley will be looked at at 3 positions, SS, 3rd or, if this is a position, DH. 😉
Also, just regarding this: “sensing that the Dodgers would offer Ramirez the QO with the expectation that he would decline, sign elsewhere, and net them draft compensation. Of course, the new regime in L.A. headed by Andrew Friedman might feel differently.” — I’d imagine the new regime will feel even MORE strongly that this is their expectation and even hope.
Hanley doesn’t have the mobility to play SS but he’s quick enough to play LF. Hanley looked a lot faster than Matt Kemp when running the bases this year. He wasn’t awful at SS in 2013, he should be able to handle SS in a pinch. I think he has a little versatility and could potentially play 3B, LF, 2B or 1B. His flaws are much more glaring at SS because it really is that much more demanding of a position. I would think he’s most likely a DH by the end of any 6 year deal though.
DH sooner rather than later. Reporting that defensive play is not Hanley’s strong suit understates the issue, which is that playing position is beating up his body. Making him play an entirely new position isn’t going to help that problem. I can just see him going into a squat between pitches in the outfield. Suggestions that he move to the outfield could not come from anyone who’s actually watched him play recently.
A story about Hanley’s future that doesn’t even mention DH. Okie-dokie.
any remote possibility the yankees sign headley and hanley? hanley at short for 3-4 years while headley plays 3rd
Overpaid and frequent trips to the dl. Sounds like he’s signing with the Yankees.
Those of you who have followed Dodgers will know Hanley is really dangerous at the plate when he’s healthy. I’m surprised the player of this caliber is out on the market. I project he wouldn’t have a problem landing 130M contract this winter.
I don’t think NY will be where Hanley lands. No team should be signing him to play SS, and I think if they can’t get Headley, then Prado will be the opening day 3B.