Red Sox ownership will meet Jon Lester and his agents this week, a likely signal that the Sox are set to make a significant offer, Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston writes. An offer in the $130MM neighborhood ought to be enough to persuade Lester to strongly consider continuing his career in Boston, Edes writes. Six teams reportedly have strong interest in Lester. Here are more notes from the East divisions.
- The Orioles will have to take a large number of players through the arbitration process this offseason, but one they do have a tough decision on is outfielder Alejandro De Aza, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. Kubatko suggests the O’s should keep De Aza, who batted .293/.341/.537 in 89 plate appearances and also hit well in the postseason after arriving in a trade with the White Sox.
- ESPN analyst Doug Glanville, who hasn’t coached, managed or worked in a front office since he retired as a player, isn’t a standard managerial candidate for the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays recently interviewed Glanville and today interviewed Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, who join a crowded field of candidates that also includes Manny Acta, Kevin Cash, Craig Counsell, Raul Ibanez, Dave Martinez, Charlie Montoyo, Don Wakamatsu and Ron Wotus. “Maybe I am a dark horse (candidate), I don’t know,” says Glanville. “I approach it like, ’Why not?’“
- Phillies president David Montgomery expects to return eventually from a medical leave of absence after having jaw bone cancer surgery last spring, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. “The good news is my prognosis is excellent,” says Montgomery. “The chemo and radiation I did was preventative. I’ve basically kind of been dismissed by doctors. I have periodic PET scans … Hopefully I’ll have that 45th season.” Montgomery has been in the organization for 44 seasons. Pat Gillick is serving as the Phillies’ interim president.
For your editing consideration: Don Wakamatsu is a former manager, but very much the current Don Wakamatsu.
Thanks.
Excellent observation.
Can someone explain how:
1. Boston thinks that it is OK to give Lester a “Home Town Discount”.
2. The Red Sox sell seats in RF directly behind poles, angled so fans have to turn their heads 90 degrees, packed like sardines for $75 each?
I really don’t understand.
I don’t understand it either. If there’s someone you’re going to give a big contract to, it’s your homegrown ace. It would cost so much more, either in prospects or contracts to replace him. I have no idea how/why they got to this point with Lester. It’s not like they are burdened with huge contracts either. Their long-term commitments are very limited and they have a ton of prospects coming up who will keep the roster costs down. Letting things with Lester get to this point don’t make sense.
So they should go all out for Lester, they desperately need starting pitching.
On the subject of Fenway, I can’t attend games there because I’m 6’5″ and don’t fit in the seats.
That said, the hometown discount thing is absurd. I could see them protecting themselves with a vesting option or padding the deal with some easily attainable incentives, but it’s baffling as to why they act like a small market team.
Seconded on the “baffling” bit. The Sox are always trying to be someone else. Right now, it’s the Patriots. They admire how emotionless the Patriots are when it comes to roster decisions and are trying to emulate them. Of course, lost in there is the fact that the Patriots play in a system with a salary cap, while the Red Sox don’t.
That, and they have loads of payroll flexibility.
The Sox have been harping on the payroll flexibility bit for a while. Thing is, they now have absolutely incredible payroll flexibility. They can sign Lester and Sandoval at their prices and still have lots of flexibility, a lot more than their closest competitors. If you look at their long-term payroll commitments, they are closer to the Rays than to the Yankees.
I’m 6’2″ and I purchased seats at $90 on the first base side and they were made out of wood and angled away from home plate. It was the single worst baseball experience I have ever been through (Rogers Centre comes a close second) and when I list the 23 best MLB stadiums I have ever visited Fenway is above only O.Co Coliseum. Good thing Boston makes good beer because that is the only redeeming experience at Fenway, especially since all fans cannot check out the view from the Green Monster. Top that all with their horrific parking situation and you have a terrible baseball experience.
Agreed. I’ve been to 22 parks (have not been to Safeco, Coors, Chase, Wrigley, US Cellular, Miller, Target, or Citi Field) and Fenway only bests the Rogers Centre and Tropicana for me. I grew up in Boston and quite honestly would rather watch games from home than go to Fenway. The public transportation coming from the game is awful too.
Be an Orioles fan! We can get $10 upper deck tix and sneak into any seat in the house!
Sat behind home plate once and left an umbrella behind. I tried to enter back into the stadium after the game and showed the ushers my bleacher seats, but told them I actually sat behind home plate. They freaked out, but seriously… you can sneak into any seat at OP@CY
Haha my dad and I buy the upper deck seats and sit 10 rows or so behind the O’s dugout. People don’t understand if someone’s not going to show up, it doesn’t really matter if you sit there.
6 yrs and 130 isn’t going to get it done.
Agreed. At this point, I bet the offers are close to Zack Greinke’s 6/$159M. Too bad for the Sox. They probably could have had him for 60-70% of that back in the spring.
Since he’s a lefty I’d look at Hamel’s contract as more of a comparison, 6/144. The amount the Tigers offered Scherzer. But in a way I agree with Boras about that being an old marketplace price. But on the other hand Lester hasn’t had too many ace type or CY Young caliber seasons.
I don’t know how much his handedness plays in. I do think 6/144 might get it done for the Sox with a “discount” in play. But, I’d bet the high offers are well above Hamel’s deal. My guess is that the Cubs are going to get him for something north of Greinke’s deal and then talk about bringing a “winning attitude” or some such to the Cubs.
Alot of people in the industry value lefties more to offset the rightys in their rotation but it’s also common belief that lefties don’t regress as fast as RHPs.
Last year Tanaka was out of their range at 155 and he is a lot younger than Lester. (Epstein is big on age) Why would he break the bank on Lester, yet no one else?
There’s was a lot more uncertainty to Tanaka than there is to Lester.
Maybe my point was missed. It wasn’t meant to be about Tanaka as much as it sounded. Why would the Cubs go from having their largest contract ever, be 60 million to being something over 150 million?
Here is copy and paste from NYPost (11/12/14):
“There has been a theory the Cubs could flex their financial muscle and add multiple nine-figure starting pitchers this offseason to address their greatest area of need – perhaps trading for Cole Hamels and signing Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields.
“That’s not happening,” Epstein said.
He said the history of such contracts is so poor “it is too much risk” to add multiple pacts of that sort.”
I know that about “multiple pacts” but it seems to me that Cubs will make a medium splash as opposed to grabbing the 2nd biggest FA out there. I don’t think they can financially go up against Red Sox, especially since Lester sounds like he would prefer to return to Sox.
I think you shouldn’t trust anything said by GMs (and suped-up GMs like Epstein) this time of year. It’s all nonsense that they don’t feel bound by in any way. The Yankees will tell people they’re not spending money, and then blow through a quarter billion dollars in contracts.
The Cubs had a $144M payroll just a few years ago. Right now, they’re on the hook for about $35M for next year (without having a ton of arbitration cases). If they’re planning to compete next year, the spending is coming.
I agree with not trusting what GMs say, so track record is a better indicator. Thats why I trust the Yankees to spend (although not necessarily this year) and the Cubs to remain on the cautious side of spending. So if it comes to a ‘who blinks first contest’, the Red Sox will go that extra million to land Lester, (they have in the past) not the Cubs (who haven’t in the past).
I don’t know. Epstein’s only been there for three years. It seems like this is the year they’re planning to build for the present, rather than the future. But, we will see…
Signing Maddon showed me that the Cubs are serious about winning right now, they have the best young position players in baseball. They will get 2 good starters this off season to be competitive. There top target seems to be Lester, if they don’t sign him they will move to Shields, Liriano, Hammel, and McCarthy. I could even see them trading for Hamels if they don’t land Lester. They have a lot of flexibility.
I could see the Cubs giving Lester the best offer and him still signing with the Sox.
Theo Epstein isn’t the Cubs GM… Jed Hoyer is
Well aware of that. Thus the term “suped-up GM.” The Cubs created a position in their hierarchy so they could call it a promotion. He still does a ton of GM-like things even if Hoyer is technically the GM.
Well aware of that. Thus the term “suped-up GM.”
Hamel’s contract was an extension so it is discounted for the fact that there were not other teams bidding. Lester being a lefty makes him more valuable. Greinke is actually an extremely good comparison with very similar career numbers.
Grienke is or has been an ace. Lester is more of a number 2 much like Hamels behind Lee. But if need be Hamels and Lester can lead a pitching staff. I just thinking anything above 150 could be an overpay. But he might look to top what Tanaka got. His agent would have a good arguement since the guy Tanaka wasnt proven but Tanaka was being paid to be an ace pretty much, I don’t think Lester should but someone like the Cubs might. He’d easily be their ace.
Hamels and Lester are both aces, their is no doubt in anybody’s mind about that, only Hamels is better than Lester, though not by much. Hamels account 6.6 WAR last year according to BBR, Lester had a WAR of 4.6, both these values are ace caliber stats. Due to the constant inflation of deals in baseball, I could see Lester landing a 6/144 million deal and like you said, anything about 150 would be an absolute overpay.
This past season and for a couple prior seasons he’s been the ace. But remember during most his time with the Sox he was pitching like a number 2 as Beckett was the ace. But as Lester is in his prime and peak he’s an ace now but during the length of this contract he seeks he might only for another year or so. He’d be the ace on many staffs but for teams like Seattle, the Dodgers or the Tigers, it be hard to justify overpaying him ace type money when he’s not leading the staff. The Cubs could get away with it, they need someone to headline their staff but his bidding gets above 150 I really only see the Cubs or maybe teams like the Astros interested.
Not the Astros….. I’d say it comes down to the Red Sox or Cubs.
Grienke has established himself as an Ace since joining the Dodgers, but before he signed that contract there were many people who called him more of a “number two” as well. Before their big contracts (Lester clearly has not signed it yet) they had one dominate season, Grienke’s being better but Lesters coming in on his platform year, and a bunch of good ones (mid-3 ERA’s, 200 innings, etc.). Now I agree, if I were in charge of a club I would be have a hard time giving that contract to Lester (or Grienke at the time, without the benefit of hindsight) but given the precedent and demand for top-notch pitching, I can certainly see Lester at least matching Grienke.
The fact that there is not draft pick attached makes Lester more appealing.
6/159 million is absurd. That is Scherzer’s territory. Lester will get around Cole Hamels’ money.
There’s no such thing as “absurd” in contract negotiations. Every year we are shocked by the high contracts given out. This year will be no different.
There is a lot of TV money in baseball, teams seem to have more money to spend lately.
Welcome to (fill in the blank) jon lester. join the flint tropics and you will get a life time supply of scotch tape
Chicago. It’s win-win for Epstein. He gets a “proven winner” and he gets to put Larry Lucchino into an expensive scramble for legitimate pitching.
I see your point. personally i don’t care where he will go. i know he wobt come to my team. they are all obsessive about yasmany tomas.
Just think, the Red Sox could have got this deal done for Homer Bailey money in spring training.
The way the Lester situation has been handled, coupled with the fact Cherington recently says he views JBJ as a starting center fielder, just goes to show he has absolutely no idea what he is doing.
The Lester situation has certainly been a disaster, and putting too much faith in JBJ and X to seamlessly transition to the majors was a failure. Continuing to have faith in a player who has performed offensively at every level isn’t a failure. What’s he supposed to say? JBJ is terrible. He has no business starting for a ML team. Now what will you offer me for him?
Again, not blaming this on Cherington. But, it’s not just the Lester situation. They played hardball with Napoli and then ended up having to sign him for more money overall. The same thing played out with David Ortiz; in the end they guaranteed him more more than he would have initially had. Then, they let Ellsbury leave and made no effort to replace his production. Their finish this year required a lot to go wrong, but they went in with a lowered probability of success.
Cherington was the person that decided that JBJ and Grady Sizemore were enough depth in centerfield. He was clearly wrong.
He may have been wrong about JBJ, but there was really good statistical evidence that JBJ would be a quality MLB player. The list of players with his defensive skills who put up his kind of OBP in the minors is not long and it is mostly filled with guys who succeeded in making the transition. I can see why they believed in him. What I don’t really get is that they made no real effort to make up for Ellsbury’s lost production. They probably didn’t expect JBJ to produce at Ellsbury’s level, especially not in his first year, but they also didn’t acquire the pieces to make up for the production deficit.
There was no ML evidence before the season that proved JBJ could hit ML pitching. As a matter of fact his numbers from 2013 should have been a huge warning that his lack of production in 2014 was coming. They also had an opportunity to bring in some new blood via trades before the season was out of reach. Instead they choose to resign Stephen Drew and do nothing to shore up the lack of production from the outfield. Some of this failure has to be laid at the feet of Cherington.
Who realistically do you think the Red Sox could have brought in for CF?
Theoretically at the beginning of last season, they could have brought in any outfield position and shifted Victorino to center. They could have made a play for Beltran, Granderson, Choo (unlikely), Nelson Cruz, any number of outfielders. Sadly any of those players would have been an upgrade over the production they got in the first half. Even the ones who spent most of the season on the DL. Baring any of that they could have made a trade for a steady veteran as a fallback. The fault of Cherington was to put too much faith in youth that had yet to prove itself. If anything there should have been huge red flags from JBJ’s ML production in 2013. Having a player that hadn’t played in several years as a fallback plan was laughable.
The only one of those guys that you could even argue the Red Sox wouldn’t be in worse shape today than they are had they signed him is Cruz. I have no idea why you would want any of the other 3, at this point.
I wouldn’t want them necessarily now, but any of them would have produced better than the Red Sox outfield last season. We have the power of hindsight, in that we know how all those deals look now because we have seen the first years. Granderson had a 105 OPS+ last season. Cruz had a 140. Choo had a 102. Beltran had a 98. JBJ had a 50. Anything would have been an upgrade over his offensive production. I’m not saying you run out and sign someone for 7 years, but they had to do that anyway when they signed Castillo. Pay now or pay later. They left the position hopelessly thin, and paid the price.
You also have to factor in if they would have signed on of those guys to a multi-year deal, Castillo possibly isn’t signed.
Eventually, you have to give these kids a chance to play. No it didn’t work out in 2014. But if they had signed a big money player and he struggled, fans would be screaming to give Bradley a chance.
Signing any player to a LTD wouldn’t have prevented JBJ from playing. They could have signed someone to play either corner outfield spot, and eased Bradley into a spot. Or traded someone when it became clear he could handle an everyday job.
And giving them a chance to play if fine, but there has to be a course correction when it becomes obvious they are unable to handle it. Every single centerfielder with 400 plate appearances had a higher fWAR than Bradley last season. So they pretty much could have made a trade for any outfielder with a positive fWAR and upgraded the position. They shouldn’t just be given the position, they should have to take it. They should have to play so well that it is impossible to ignore them. Betts did that this year. Bradley never did.
Holy over reaction Batman. You’re saying all of this in hindsight. Cherington had to make all of these decisions without the knowledge that you now possess. It never ceases to amaze me when people assume that these guys can predict the future.
Trading Lester brought in a valuable trade commodity in Cespedes and they still have the best shot at bringing Lester back for 2015.
JBJ had a bad season… but lets not pretend that his career is over. He was the best defensive center fielder in the league and needs some work with the bat… but he’s still only 24.
Can we stop with all this chicken little business. The sky isn’t falling and the Red Sox are poised to control a vast amount of the moves that are made this offseason. They have the best crop of prospects and plenty of money to shuffle the roster and get back to winning in 2015. I can’t name another team that has half the leverage that they do this offseason.
But all those guys (aside from Cruz) wanted multiple years or more money than they are worth. No more Carl Crawford contracts please.
It didn’t work, plain and simple, but it’s better than investing four years in Beltron or Choo, all the while overpaying for them.
JBJ turned out lousy, so didn’t Beltran for Yankees. It the unknown element of baseball. Your faulting a GM for not seeing a player, who had OBP of .430 and .374 between AA and AAA the last two years, would turn into .265 OBP. No GM can predict that everytime.
Most every team has a JBJ or Beltran. Teams that don’t have these problems are called the Royals and Giants, and in ’13 they were called Red Sox and Cardinals.
And his slash line in the ML in 2013 .189/.280/.337. There should have been a red flag there no?
That slash line based on 107 plate appearances.
Mike Trout’s slash line in his first season was 135 PAs .220/.281/.390. Huge Red Flag.
That slash line based on 107 plate appearances.
Mike Trout’s slash line in his first season was 135 PAs .220/.281/.390. Huge red flag.
That slash line is based on 107 PAs. Minor League numbers are based on 959 PAs.
Mike Trout slash line in his first season (135 PAs):
.220/.281/.390. Good thing your not Angels GM, he would’ve never gotten a second chance.
Mike Trout was then sent back to the minors to figure it all out, before he was called up for a second chance. When he proceeded to hit over .400 in his first 20 games of the next season, he was called up again. I think the Angels were safe to call him back up again. There is a way of breaking into the lineup in a major league team from the minors. You have to make it impossible for them not to play you. Mookie Betts did that by tearing his way into the big leagues. In a small sample size JBJ was terrible in 2013. He was even more terrible given another opportunity in 2014. He never earned the position in the minors and was given it anyway. He failed miserably. That’s on Cherington for not planning for that possibility.
abc
Not seeing the “certainly been a disaster”. How you figure that?
1) Sox get Lester long term.
2) Get to see how he pitches the entire 2014, without any financial commitment.
3) Also, get Cespedes.
4) Cost is 20 to 30 million extra. (My guess is to re-sign him in spring would’ve cost between 100 and 120mil)
Are you saying the Red Sox can’t afford the extra 30 million? It was a calculated risk. If they are able to re-sign Lester, they will be better off than if they signed him in the spring, with money being the only cost.
It’s a disaster if they don’t sign him and then have to go out and spend just as much or more in salary or prospects for someone who may or may not succeed in Boston.
Big “if” there. Right now it appears Red Sox are in the drivers seat.
No one knew he would put up those kind of numbers in ’14 (219 Inn, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Red Sox should get credit for turning that season into Cespedes and still a legit shot at signing him.
Red Sox might be in the drivers seat but when you have a player like Lester (look at what he did in the postseason run last year) you don’t let him play out his contract and trade him its just too risky.
I’d say the Sox have a 25% chance of resigning him and a 100% chance of paying him an extra 30-40 million dollars (could have been used to acquire a Cespedes type player this offseason).
They’re in the “drivers seat”, but only have a “25% of resigning”? Is that even possible?
Well, I guess its better than the ‘0%’ chance I’ve been hearing here since April.
Yeah when there are 30 teams having a 25% chance of resigning him would be the drivers seat. I’d say Cubs also have a 25% chance of signing Lester so they are both in the drivers seat.
Lester is in Boston this weekend meeting with RS ownership. Not Chicago, or anywhere else. He’s made his desires clear. Anything could happen, but certainly this gives Red Sox a better chance than others.
They’re not in the driver’s seat though. IF they resign him, which is a big IF they’ll have to pay through the nose to do it, for a longer term then they otherwise would have. Or they could be outbid by any of the other 5 teams in on him, and be left with one year of Cespedes who they’ll have to trade because they can’t QO him. That doesn’t look like the driver’s seat at all.
No, I’m saying that if they had resigned him in Spring Training they could have saved that thirty million and spent it improving the team in other areas. Now there is absolutely no guarantee they’ll resign him at all. At that rate there is no guarantee that Cespedes will even be spending the season here. Would you rather have a good hitter that will either be traded or walk at the end of the season without any compensation or have Lester already in the fold for a reasonable amount of money? I’m going to take Lester for 110 and leave Cespedes in Oakland any day of the week.
1) I want Cespedes to be traded. He doesn’t fit Red Sox strategy. If he is traded, we then have whatever return there is. He won’t be traded for nothing.
2) No guarantee he will sign. No guarantee he wouldn’t blow his arm out in ’14 either.
I would take Cespedes, zero risk on Lester in ’14, for 30 million. Agree or not it no way becomes the “disaster” that you want to call it.
We could have had a top of the rotation arm for AAV 18-20 for 5 years. Now we’re going to have to sign one for 25+ and probably give 7, unless we sign old man Shields for only 5. Our other option is to trade away the farm for Hamels. There are no good outcomes for any of these options. Whereas we could have retained Lester for much less money AND fewer years if we got it done in spring training. As for Cespedes, I wouldn’t expect much in return for one year of a non-QO eligible player, who is unlikely to resign, with a .300 obp.
18 x 5 = 90
25+ x 7 = 175+
No way 90 million would’ve re-signed him. And no way will it cost 175+ million now. His value didn’t jump 85 million this season.
It would’ve taken at least 100 and probably closer to 120 for 6, last offseason. It will now cost about 140. Also, our other options include signing Scherzer, a better pitcher.
I heard Bailey money would have gotten the job done. 6 years 105. Now it looks closer to 6-7 years 130-150. I’m going to stand by disaster. As long as you consider insulting your ace to the point he won’t even discuss a contract extension; then trading ace for a player not interesting in playing the position you want him to, who doesn’t intend to resign, and can’t be QOed, which makes him much less valuable than he should be. Then you have to sign for someone or trade for someone at AAV 25 million. This was incredibly mishandled. Anyone that won’t admit to disaster is probably under the impression that they’re going to resign Lester. That’s fine, but there’s no reason to assume they will. And there is every reason to believe they won’t be the highest bidder.
105 is still higher than 18-20 x 5yrs, that you listed in your last post. Not sure how you figured he currently would get 25+ x 7yrs. Seriously?
Bailey is nowhere near the pitcher Lester is, and they both had one year of team control left. I’d say 105 would’ve had to be the starting point to get a discounted deal done with Lester. Hence my 100-120 window I said from the beginning.
Yes seriously. Since MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes predicted he would command at least the 6 years $147 that Grienke got, I don’t think 7/150 is at all unreasonable. He’s the number 2 pitcher on a very thin market. He’s going to get paid very well. And Bailey is nowhere near the pitcher Lester is, but most agree that he was very overpaid considering he hadn’t established himself or proven anything when he was given the contract. And we could sign Scherzer, but since he’s going to cost even more than Lester, and have the same risks associated, I think I’ll pass.
7 x 25+ equals 175 million or more, not 150.
25 AAV for Scherzer, 20+ for Lester. Pick your poison.
Well that different than what you said before: “Now we’re going to have to sign one for 25+ and probably give 7” I would think the ones your talking about were Scherzer and Lester.
7 at 20 would be fine for me. It would be about 20-30 million more than it would’ve taken in spring. For that 30 million Sox got to avoid an injury in ’14. They got to see how he progressed this season before committing. And, lastly they got Cespedes or his comparable trade value.
If Red Sox are unable to sign Lester and can’t get Scherzer as a fallback, I would agree with you it was a disaster, but it certainly isn’t one at this moment.
I don’t think any of this is Cherington’s fault. I think he’s working within parameters supplied by ownership. Also, there was good statistical reason for thinking JBJ would be better than he is. It also makes good sense to tout him for trades, etc.
A bad decision, maybe, but saying he has no idea what he is doing is a stretch.
Cherrington looked great after they went from last to first, and now not signing Lester looks bad. They can always say they got Cespedes too!
I know its not gonna happen, but i would love it if my mariners went and signed him. we would have one of the most dangerous rotations in baseball.
Yeah, they need a bat before they even think about doing that. It certainly would be a nasty rotation though.
Time for Mike Ilitch to pull out some “$20s from his pocket” again.
1. Forget about Scherzer and get the draft pick.
2. Offer Lester 6/$150MM with a somewhat hard to get option (top 5 Cy Young) to make the deal 7/$175MM. No draft pick lost AND they get a top pitcher.
3. If Lester rejects, give that offer to Price in Spring Training.
The Tigers back loaded the VMART deal to pick up a big salary THIS YEAR and stay under the luxury tax. Unless they are getting Tomas, it looks like they are keeping the door open for a Scherzer/Lester.
The Tigers are already going to have their highest ever payroll. They’re not going to add~$25MM to it by signing one of the top free agents.
The luxury tax is based on the average annual amount. Even though he is paid $14M this year, it counts as $17M.
Thanks! Why do you think they backloaded it then? For their own balance sheet?
Might be because Kinsler’s salary is higher this season (16M) than it will be in 2016 (14M) & 2017 (11M).
The time to extend Price is now before he and his agent see what Lester gets. The closer he gets to free agency the more he’ll be willing to test the market.
Sometimes it’s the obvious…..
If John Henry and Larry Lucchino allow Theo Epstein to sign Jon Lester – then Red Sox fans and media (the same) are coming straight after them. It will cost them at least 50% more then that to deal with Scott Boras for Max Scherzer.
Lester will get what he wants.
I feel like this scenario has been obvious since last winter…yet, here we stand. I just don’t get it.