4:46pm: The Cardinals are also interested in Lester, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.
9:14am: The Braves have a meeting with left-hander Jon Lester this week, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported last week that Atlanta had briefly touched base with Lester’s representatives at ACES and speculated that more serious interest could materialize if they moved some payroll. Rosenthal tweets that the meeting will take place on Thursday.
The Braves dealt Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals yesterday in a move that looked to be signaling a brief rebuild. However, one could also look at that move and see more than $11MM in savings on next year’s payroll plus the addition of an arm (Shelby Miller) that can be a significant boost to their rotation in 2015. Despite the cost savings on Walden and Heyward, however, Lester would seem too expensive a target. Atlanta already has about $70MM committed to just seven roster spots, plus perhaps as much as $16MM in arbitration raises. Lester figures to command an annual salary well north of $20MM, possibly around $25MM, making him a financial stretch. Atlanta had a record payroll of $112MM in 2014.
However, it’s possible that the Braves could free up more payroll space that would make a Lester addition more feasible. Atlanta has long been exploring ways to free itself of at least part of the remaining $46.5MM owed to B.J. Upton, and a trade of Justin Upton, who earns $14.5MM next year, hasn’t been entirely ruled out. Atlanta would probably also love to get out from underneath the remaining $23.5MM on Chris Johnson’s contract, although that figures to be challenging to move as well.
While Lester seems like a stretch in terms of payroll, the Braves have a need for starting pitching. Currently, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Mike Minor and Miller are penciled into the rotation, and it’s unknown what the team can expect from Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen as the duo return from their second Tommy John operations. David Hale presents an option but seems better suited for a swingman role similar to the one he filled in 2014.
I have no idea what the Braves are doing, now. Trade Heyward (and possibly others, signalling a rebuild), and then start talking to Lester (who will earn a boatload)?
What are the Braves doing? It’s possible that they are returning to the pitching-first focus which made them the NL’s best for 15 years. I hope that is the case. I am tired of leading all of creation in strikeouts by hitters.
Trading Heyward doesn’t necessarily signify a rebuild. I know he has potential still, but it’s unrealized potential so far. It’s not hard to find someone who can hit .271/.351/.735 with 11 HRs and 58 RBIs. Yes his defense was very good and probably harder to replace. I won’t deny that aspect of his game.
All the same Heyward freed up about $8 million. With the money freed up alone we can find someone in the outfield to hit .271 for 11 HRs pretty easily.
As for Lester? I don’t know why they’re talking to Lester. That one is confusing.
Evaluating a player by HR and RBI is wrong. Jason’s wRC+ is 117, which is 17% above average. His strikeout rate is extremely low and has been improving every year. He also walks at a great rate. His RBI totals were effected by having no one on base in front of him (there are stats that can back this up). Yes, he doesn’t have much power. However, with his defense, base running and above average offense he is one of the best overall outfielders in baseball. THAT is a lot to lose.
This is a guy who accrued 24 WAR in 4 years and is only 25 years old. Those are not easy to find.
Yes but he is also a guy who proves how broken WAR can be. I know I harp on it a lot but it is true. He is really not as good as that stat would suggest. He was almost better than Stanton and McCutchen this year in terms of it.
Heyward needed to go.. He wanted Freddie Freeman money and he’s not worth it.. He was actually promoted to the bigs as a power bat.. The guy had 27 HR 3 years ago so you can’t say he doesn’t have much power. He stays hurt and his HR totals especially have fallen from 27 to 14 to 11 respectively. He will be greatly missed in the OF and on the base paths, but the move is good for the Braves.
because pitching wins games. Look at the world series where Bumgarner got the MVP.
Yes, but the Braves shouldn’t waste their whole budget on one guy. It’s better to spread it around, targeting mid-tier SPs, and a 2B. Blowing all their money on one guy doesn’t make a team better when other holes are present that bring the team down.
If they trade J. Upton, and can find someone to package BJ with, as well as Chris Johnson, they’ll have plenty of money to play with.. Also, think about this… As bad as Atlanta’s offense was last season, you could rely on rookies entirely and get the same results.. It can’t get much worse. I think that’s what they’re trying to do here. Anchor down a solid rotation and then build and develop position players until the Uggla & B. Upton monstrosity runs its course
Doing that makes the offence much worse… J.Upton is your power bat behind Freeman, you need him, even more after Heyward was traded. If you expect rookies to be capable to produce the same result as these guys, you’re wrong, especially with the Braves’ farm system. Plus, you can’t get these guys any cheaper on the market. Best thing to do is like I said, target a 2B, a mid-tier pitcher, and a corner OFer like Aoki. That way, you hope for the best, and if it fails, at least you aren’t stuck with an albatross contract. It is quite obvious at this time that the Braves’ chance at the postseason next year aren’t as good as some others, and using rookies to fill all your vacant spots isn’t a good idea, my Red Sox should’ve been an example of that last season, and they have a better farm system. EDIT: And I wasn’t talking about BJ and Johnson, we all know they aren’t good. But nobody is gonna take on their salaries so, the Braves’ll have to stick with them for now.
I think you are right on the Corner Outfielder approach, but the 2B job is Peraza’s to lose. Also our offense was 29th last year so pretending like these vets were getting it done isn’t exactly being realistic. I know J-Up had respectable stats but that dude could disappear for a month at a time and that isn’t something you can afford in the heart of your order.
But who else can they target to replace J-Up? You’d like to have a power bat so Freeman doesn’t get pitched around. I just have a hard time thinking about any other guys available that would be realistic for the Braves. Oh, and I forgot about Peraza, he should be a good option at 2B.
well, the number ab’s given to uggla and bj was probably the main culprit. this group was at the top of the league pretty recently when they had guys actually getting on base around the power hitters.
Ask the Kansas City Royals how their “Power” approach is going? The Royals are a contact team. I completely agree with Bravo_84 that despite the name recognition of some of these guys in the order, they weren’t getting it done. Hence the 29th in total runs ranking for the club this year. I wasn’t insinuating we should fill the roster with rookies, only saying that it couldn’t get much worse.
look at STL, not a heavy HR team, but a contact team, running, contact, and defense wins games. thats how heyward will thrive in STL.
Braves have had mid-tier SP’s for what seems like forever now. Braves need a true ace at the top of that rotation. Braves have been cheap in that area for years.
Pitching does win games. However, ask the Tigers how it worked out for them and their 3 Cy Young award rotation.
Diehard Tigers fan here but, they got beaten fair and square by the Os pitching which was a rotation that many said was lacking
pitching is also the most fragile.
also, the world series is a great example, as neither the giants or royals had elite rotations. honestly, if you have a player on bumgarner’s level on either side of the ball, he’s going to make that kind of impact.
one problem atl’s dealt with is that their teams (that are usually built around pitching) have consistently been wrecked by injuries every 3 years for about a decade now. what they need is young, well rounded position players. if only they could find someone like that to fill their holes in the lineup/outfield…
Braves are not rebuilding. They are trading what they feel they need to. The Braves have been trying to trade for Lester for a long time. They came close in 2006 when they were going to send Andruw Jones for Lester but that fell through for reasons I cant remember.
according to hart, they’re going through a small rebuilding phase. he calls it “reloading”, but its a small rebuild. you dont really trade away all your bats if youre trying to contend.
wowwww!
Doesn’t make a ton of sense, to be honest.
1. Do you give Lester $160M now if you’re building for 2017?
2. Why trade hitting for pitching and then sign *another* pitcher?
3. What are their plans for Upton?
4. They are in major need of bats.
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I really dont understand this. If you want a big ticket FA pitcher why not wait until next offseason when youre a year closer to contention and jump in the David Price sweepstakes. Hes already shown a willingness to come to atl. To be honest i like the jup swap for t walker to fill out our rotation unless they use jup as a way to free themselves of bj
No guarantee Price will hit the market, and even if he does he WILL be more expensive than Lester.
Braves are not rebuilding. They have a good team still and think pitching can win it for them.
really?with heyward, upton, gattis gone who will drive in runs, pena, terdo, cunningham? come on who will knock in 80-100 runs? we only have freeman, and he is only good for 280-20-80. we have to have 700+runs or were in houston territory.
Last I checked Upton and Gattis are still on the team. You need to wait and see the plan but it is pitching focused that is for sure.
upton is all but gone, gattis may stay, but who replaces the 102 runs? we only produced 500+ run last year. forget lester, go for bats, no, not HR bats, average bats. men on, men over, men in.
Trade Jason Heyward, now eyeing a Justin Upton & Evan Gattis trade… signs Lester well north of $100 million?? Huh??
Well, if they sign him (which is pretty unlikely given the competition), they’ll likely move one of their other pitchers for young, cheap hitting. I could see them going after someone like a Brett Lawrie from the Jays, or a Corey Dickerson from the Rockies.
Helps that he is not tied to a draft pick
Forgot all about that, but you are right that is a huge plus.
I honestly could see them trying to move Minor. He’s still got some trade value but I don’t think he’s lived up to his potential in Atlanta. The only thing positive about Minor is he’s another LHP in the rotation. I loved what we saw from the small sample David Hale provided last season, but if we could land a top of the rotation starter in Lester, Minor could very well be a great piece for someone and return a good young hitter.
If they actually were to get Lester I could definitely see them moving Minor. Maybe even as part of the deal that could rid us of BJ. I don’t however see Hale as a starter. If we were to move Minor I think that savings would go toward a guy like Volquez or maybe even bringing Harang back for a year if he can’t get the two year deal he wants.
Rox aren’t giving up Dickerson. They might trade Stubbs or Barnes though.
Sounds like to me they are doing this (act like they want Lester) to keep J Up’s and Gattis’ trade values up. Make it look like you are thinking of competing in 2015. But then again I could be reading into it too much.
Lester lives in Atlanta, so this is definitely possible.
Rotation
Jon Lester (L)
Julio Teheran (R)
Mike Minor (L)
Shelby Miller (R)
Alex Wood (L)
Meh as long as he’s not wearing pinstripes, I’m good haha 😉
Who’s gonna hit though?
Braves have been trying to trade for Lester for a long time. If they were to sign him I am confident Minor would be traded.
they all would have sub 3 era, but with our future lineup we would only score 1-2 a game. remember we only score 500 runs last year.
The talk coming into the season was to get more consistent hitters across the board. That is more of the run manufacturing punch and judy type than to load up on the power hitters and wait on the home run ball as the only form of offense.
I know it sounds crazy, but guys like Lester don’t hit the market very often and he would be a perfect #1 for that rotation. If they can free up the money or shake down ownership I think this is a great move for Atlanta. Still not sure who is going to hit the ball, but surely they’ll be able to bunt somebody over…
Braves payroll is moving up. Lester is not tied to a draft pick, as long as they dont go too crazy on years I am all for it.
Bowden pegged him at 6/138. If we could come in slightly under that for him to pitch close to home I would be all for it. Maybe something structured like Cliff Lee’s 5/120. (11M, 21.5M, 25M, 25M, 25M, 27.5M club option (12.5M buyout))
The Braves are going to have to come off J. Upton to make this happen. Also look for them to deal Chris Johnson, and take a hit on BJ Upton if they can package him. The Braves NEEEEEED Pitching.. So I don’t hate this. You have to remember the team we had assembled (Top to Bottom) would have always led the league in Strikeouts, and this past season was the worst I’ve seen the Braves offensively in a decade, so a new crop of youth couldn’t do much worse
I dont understand this. Lester will command a FA deal with a similar AAV as J-Upton and Heyward will next year. Any gain from acquiring Lester will be offset by the offensive loss of Heyward and Upton. Seems like a lot of work just to fix one problem by creating another.
i find this very interesting but of course we will have to clear up more money
With Ervin Santana off the books and the Heyward trade, Braves cleared up 24 million right there.
yuppp and w ehave more to clear up too
Also off the books after 2015
Uggla 13 Mil
Upton 14.5 Mil
So thats 27.5 million off the books after 2015.
I really wouldn’t put a whole lot of stock into this. I’d say the Braves chances of actually signing Lester is less than one percent. Sounds like a smoke screen to me to drive his price up for the Cubs or the Red Sox.
I hope you’re wrong. I was looking for a reason to look forward to 2015.
the whole thing smells like a smoke screen, for Lester and also for the braves.
If he signs with the Red Sox, it’s going to be because he wants to return to the Red Sox. I don’t think Boston is willing to play that game. They want him back, and they’ll make him a fair offer, but if it turns into an auction, they’ll find a pitcher elsewhere.
I think you are wrong. I think it is closer to a 25% chance though.
Braves have been trying to get this guy for a long time. In 2006 they tried to trade Andruw Jones for him.
I have a curiosity that the braves are going to try to get rid of Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, and Jonny Venters cause they are treating them as though they don’t exist
From a FO standpoint they don’t exist. No matter how much you like the guys and how much you pull for them you just can’t expect anything from guys returning from multiple Tommy Johns. It would just be poor business to count on them for anything. I absolutely love Meds but you can’t pay him 6Mil either.
Venters will be gone, no way are the Braves going to cough up another million for a guy on his 3rd TJ. Meds will probably be non-tendered in hopes of signing him back on a limited contract + 2016 option. Beachy should get a contract since he’s still relatively cheap and doesn’t reach FA for several more years. Just my opinion though, no telling what John Hart does with this team now.
Venters had his 3rd Tommy John Surgery late in the season, he is not going to pitch at all for any of 2015 and MAY give it a shot to come back in 2016. I don’t see Beachy throwing one pitch at the ML level again, and Medlen may come back but as a reliever.
Apparently too cheap to sign Jason but now are pursuing a 30 year old pitcher who will command lots of $$$$$. What????
An ace is more important than Heyward.
A ace don’t normally put runs on the board.
In fairness the do keep runs off the board, and that was where most of Heyward’s value was as well.
I think its just due diligence. They owe it to themselves to see if Lester will take a lower offer since he’s from Georgia. Just wish they had done due diligence on Heyward instead of assuming he wanted Robinson Cano type money.
I don’t see how they can pay him, not without having to do something that would hurt the team in another area. No one’s taking B.J. Upton’s contract unless the Braves either pay most of it (and defeat the purpose for this exercise), or package him along with a good player for very little return. And if they have to do that in order to sign Lester, why would Lester want to play for a team that’s no longer a strong contender? Without Heyward and whoever they have to surrender to unload BJU’s contract, they’re not going to have a good enough lineup.
Maybe the braves are going to add more money to the payroll in just wanted to trade Hayward in get something out of him before the season in case his offense get worse.
Odd. Considering the fact that the Braves are looking to trade most of the major pieces of their offense, giving a humongous contract to Lester seems like the antithesis of what they’re doing. Maybe Jon Hart has something else up his sleeve.
oh, now don’t you just sound smart…
The braves need a sp ace in a club house leader with playoff experience
I’m not 100% sold that Lester is the guy as a club house leader, but I can certainly say that Atlanta’s front office seriously undervalued that role in past seasons. Losing Prado and Ross two years ago, then Hudson and McCann last year was a huge blow to the leadership of the team and I think we all saw that on the field.
Also while I’m on my soap box let me go on record stating that I would love to see Mike Ross as Fredi’s replacement whenever he decides he’s ready to retire from playing. Would love to see us get him back in the organization to mentor Bethancourt this offseason.
The guy from Suits?
Sorry David Ross… Had my head shove up a certain body cavity on that one..
It’s ok man…it gave me a chuckle moment…
Btw I hear we have a chance to bring Rossy back as CBs backup…
Is this true?
I know he had a great relationship with McDowell and Fredi so if the money works I would say yes. Personally I think we messed up not paying him two years ago. He’s easily worth twice as much as Laird was especially now with CB taking over the starting role.
Mike Ross would definitely know the scouting reports every game.
You guys are killing me.
I think the Braves have a very good chances of singing Lester should he decided to play closer to home. He will have to take less but the plus for him he will get to play 25 minutes away from home.
I’ll like to have David Ross back as a backup catcher.
I wouldn’t mind having Rossy back either as he was one of my favorite Braves players, but The Braves really need a Left Handed bat for their next back up catcher. Alex Avila plays good defense and is a left handed hitter so he might fit that role, because or starter is either going to be Christhian Betancourt or Evan Gattis, would be nice to have that lefty come off the bench to supplement either one of those on their days off.
It appears The Tigers have already excercised their option on Avila. My Bad.
Tigers picked up Avila’s option. I really don’t like the idea of limiting CB to any type of platoon role either considering he is our catcher of the future. I think the FO is going to take the “prove you can’t hit” approach with him.
That’s a good point about not wanting to limit Betancourt in anyway, but a good veteran left handed bat to spell them would help with the match ups on scheduled off days, and it would help to not overwhelm Betancourt from the out set.
$5.3 Million for Avila, Wow!
Maybe there is a good cheaper option out there, because if The Braves are going to keep investing in their pitching which definitely needs to be done. They need a really good catcher and back up.
I agree with everything you said. Ideally the backup would be a lefty, but I really don’t want to build in an easy reason for Fredi to bench him on a regular basis or keep him in the dugout for a week when we face 6-7 straight RH starters. I’ve seen the guy manage he would do it in a heartbeat.
I just can’t see it. The rotation is good and Beachy and Medlen are on the mend. The Braves just need to hang tight is all and add some filler.
we can’t afford to wait around for Beachy or Medlen. we need pitching now.
Both Beachy and Medlen are coming off TMJ you cannot assume that the will be ready to go by the time the season get underway.
I think the Braves learned last year you can’t count on guys returning from TJ surgery.
See: John Lackey
Beachy and Medlen are not going to make any more starts at the major league level. In fact, one of them is going to be sent into non tender world. The other is probably going to be brought back in relief.
This is baffling to me for two reasons:
1) Braves had one of the best staffs last year and could sign a coupla reclamation projects (2014: Harang and Floyd) and given Beachy and Medlin should be back at least for a couple months before their arms fall off.
2) A main reason the pitchers were so good was because of their good defensive – which will be the exact inverse if you put Gattis in the outfield.
Why get more reclamation projects when you can get a pitcher who is actually worth getting? Especially one for a rotation with three members being 24 or younger. Also, the chances Beachy and Medlen return to the rotation are slim to none. There are almost no cases of pitchers becoming starters again after two TJ surgeries.
John Hart will destroy your team.
Charles have you heard of a man named Wren?
John Hart was a part of the Brain Trust that created those power house Cleveland Indians teams of the 90’s, and was a brain trust member of The Rangers during their World Series years. I personally love his track record.
People keep griping and complaining about The Braves trading away Jason Heyward, and contemplating trading Justin Upton. The Braves were 29th in runs scored last season. Only team worse in almost every major offensive category was the Padres. Why keep guys around who helped contribute to that dubious distinction?
The Lester Idea makes perfect sense. The Braves are losing close to400 Innings from their rotation from last season in Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang. Shelby Miller probably accounts for 1 half of those 200 Innings, and Lester gives a true front line ace to The Braves that will mentor Teheran, Wood, Miller, Minor, etc. if he is signed.
Why does everyone think that because we traded Heyward we are out of the competition? We freed up a lot of money to spend elsewhere on the one thing we know wins games – pitching! Yes Heyward is young and a good player, but he wasn’t going to sign long term in Atlanta – because we weren’t going to pay him what he wanted. So we get 2 young and talented arms in return. One player doesn’t make a team relevant at all. One player can make a good impact on a team but by no means do they do it all on their own. We need an influx of pitching and guys who get on base, not the potential to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases a year, which is what Heyward was supposed to be doing since he came into the league 5 years ago.
How does pitching win games when the team don’t score enough runs and hurting the defense won’t help the pitching. Heyward is a guy that got on base and didn’t need to hit 30HR or steal 30 bases to be above average offensively.
This is one step forward and two steps back.
Exactly. They didn’t trade Heyward for prospects, they traded him for a major league pitcher with both a proven track record AND upside. Just because you trade a big name does not mean you are having a full on rebuild, even if they trade Upton and/or Gattis too. It’s more like a reload.
This makes sense if they find the money.
It’d be great to have a veteran ace to lead the otherwise extremely young rotation.
Even if they do end up punting on 2015, Lester could help out 2016 and beyond.
No draft pick attached to Lester.
Would likely save an additional 5M (approx) by non-tendering Meds.
Braves could focus on getting a young bat if they trade J. Upton.
The moves being made or attempted by Hart seem to be focused on making the Braves really good in 2016/2017, while still having an outside shot in the meantime.
face it, were not a WS contender this year on next, why do we need a lester? we need young bats to mature. Our current crop of pitchers will be around 3.50. we need bats and speed first, then in 17 find a ace.
Everyone is a World Series contender every year, before the season starts. You don’t win the WS on paper. Seriously did you have the Royals pegged as a WS contender on paper before this season?
no, no one did, but how did they get there? certainly wasnt pitching!
Defense, speed,bullpen and got hot at the right time.
I see another big trade or two coming in the near future. I think its fairly obvious to see that the Braves are building for the opening of the new park.
stl always stays in contention why? bat control, speed, and good pitching, right now the braves have none of that. Our current pitching will keep us in games, concentrate on bat control, then speed, pitchers are always available.