The ninth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.
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This is the fourth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers. Last year 4,443 people entered, with Mark Fenske taking home the batting title with 13 correct picks out of 48, a .271 average. Ed Creech topped MLBTR writers with 11 correct. The contest is back for 2015 and is open now! You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 7th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point (I will certainly make changes up until the end). A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest. Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you’ll be making predictions, along with my guesses. Player names are linked to our Free Agent Profiles.
Please note that I’ve given up on trying to create a scenario where all 50 signings fit together, so you’ll see some redundant picks where multiple players are listed for a team that could only sign one of them. I looked at each player individually and made a pick.
1. Max Scherzer – Yankees. Scherzer is the best starting pitcher in a free agent market loaded with quality arms, a 30-year-old strikeout machine with a Cy Young award on his resume. Including the postseason, he tallied a 3.08 ERA in 461 1/3 innings spanning 2013-14. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal seems out of reach, as does its $30.7MM average annual value. A better target would be something closer to the total outlay the Yankees made last winter for Masahiro Tanaka: seven years, $175MM. Extension talks with the Tigers broke down in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The Kershaw, Tanaka, and Zack Greinke deals all included opt-out clauses, something agent Scott Boras will likely seek as he negotiates on behalf of his best free agent starting pitcher since Barry Zito. As he has before, Boras may attempt to bypass GMs in favor of convincing a team’s owner to invest. The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability. And we can’t count the Tigers out entirely quite yet.
2. Jon Lester – Cubs. Lester, a 30-year-old southpaw, posted a 2.46 ERA this year in 219 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics. He was actually better this year than Scherzer in terms of ERA, and the two share identical 3.58 career marks. Owing to a midseason trade to Oakland, Lester is ineligible for a qualifying offer. Unable to work out an extension with Lester, the Red Sox traded him, but both sides have made an offseason reunion sound more likely than it usually is when a pending free agent star is dealt. However, the Cubs are viewed as the industry favorite for Lester, given Theo Epstein’s time in Boston, the Cubs’ need for frontline starting pitching, and their large spending capacity this winter. Lester should command at least the six years and $147MM Greinke received two years ago, and potentially more.
3. James Shields – Red Sox. The last of the Big Three starting pitchers of the 2014-15 offseason, Shields would have been the best available starter in a lot of previous winters. Big Game James has been a workhorse throughout his career with the Rays and Royals, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 regular season innings this year. He’s less of a strikeout pitcher than the two hurlers listed above him, he turns 33 in December, and he received a qualifying offer. The Red Sox are expected to make a push for him if they fail to sign Lester, but he could certainly land with any of the teams we listed for Scherzer and probably a few more. Shields could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more, though some teams will likely stop at four years given his age.
4. Hanley Ramirez – Yankees. Ramirez is the best available free agent position player this year. The Dodgers and previous GM Ned Colletti were unable or unwilling to extend him, leaving shortstop an open question for 2015 for new chief Andrew Friedman. Ramirez is a premium right-handed bat at a time when offense is harder to come by, yet he managed only 214 games from 2013-14 due to injuries. He also comes with defensive question marks as a shortstop, and could spend much of his next deal at the hot corner. The new Dodgers regime could re-engage Ramirez, but otherwise his market is unclear. The Yankees, Giants, Mariners, and Tigers are speculative matches, though there’s no perfect fit at this point. A six-year deal is likely for Ramirez, and he has a shot at reaching seven years like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury did last winter.
5. Pablo Sandoval – Giants. Sandoval, 28, is immensely popular in San Francisco, padding his postseason heroics this year. The third baseman, nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, flashed 30 home run power in 2011, but averaged fewer than 16 longballs per 150 games in the three seasons that followed. A great bad-ball hitter, the portly switch-hitter seems likely to be paid on his postseason reputation more so than his recent regular season results. The thin market for free agent bats doesn’t hurt, either. The Giants and Sandoval have mutual interest in a new deal, while the Red Sox are the oft-cited alternative. The Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Marlins, and Brewers are a few other teams that don’t have third base entirely locked down. Sandoval’s weight could give some teams pause, but if an older player like Choo received seven years, it has to be a possibility for Sandoval as well. The average annual value may fall short of $20MM, on a six or seven-year deal.
6. Victor Martinez – White Sox. Martinez experienced a well-timed renaissance at age 35, hitting .335/.409/.565 with a career-high 32 home runs in 641 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had one of the best offensive years in the game, let alone among free agents. Since he turns 36 in December and spends most of his time at designated hitter, he’ll fall short of the contracts received by Hanley Ramirez and Sandoval. He’s said to be seeking a four-year deal, which would be risky for any team but is justified based on his 2014 performance. The White Sox hope to steal him away from their division-rival Tigers, while the Mariners, Orioles, Angels, and Rangers could be other possibilities.
7. Melky Cabrera – Blue Jays.  Cabrera has an argument for the best free agent outfielder in this year’s class. A switch-hitter, Cabrera is a 30-year-old left fielder who doesn’t strike out often. He has a PED blemish on his resume, and like the three bats above him, he’ll require draft pick forfeiture to sign. We’re still expecting a five-year deal approaching $70MM. The Blue Jays will attempt to retain him, and the Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mets and Cubs could be other possibilities.
8. Russell Martin – Cubs. As the only catcher on this list and possibly the only viable free agent starting option at the position, Martin is in the catbird seat. A career-best .402 on-base percentage further bolsters his case, and he’s known as an excellent defender and handler of pitching staffs. The Pirates made a qualifying offer and extend their budget to try to re-sign him, but he’d make a fine upgrade over Welington Castillo for the Cubs. The Dodgers could also get involved, and Martin would be an upgrade for the White Sox, Rockies, Tigers, Astros, and Mariners as well.
9. Nelson Cruz – Orioles. Cruz led all of MLB with 40 home runs this year, and he socked two more in the ALDS. His type of power is extremely difficult to find these days, and the qualifying offer won’t crush his market like it did a year ago. At that time, Cruz was coming off a PED suspension. His age, 34, is another deterrent, and he’s limited defensively as well. A four-year deal in the $60-70MM range is possible this time.  The Orioles will attempt to re-sign him, while the Mariners could be more convinced this time around after coming close to signing him last winter.
10. Yasmany Tomas – Phillies. Tomas is a unique free agent, in that he defected from Cuba this year and will be just 24 years old. A right-handed hitting corner outfielder with huge power, Tomas comes with a lesser reputation and less certainty than countryman Jose Abreu did a year ago, yet Tomas could still top Rusney Castillo’s $72.5MM record for a Cuban player (set in August). That could mean a seven-year deal worth around $100MM. Tomas makes sense even for rebuilding teams, bringing the Phillies into play. Earlier this month, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez also named the Rangers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, and Dodgers as other teams with strong interest.
11. Ervin Santana – Giants. A qualifying offer and high asking price forced Santana into a late one-year deal with the Braves last winter, but he should have a better outcome this time around as one of the best second-tier pitchers. He’s a durable arm to plug into the middle of any rotation.  32 in December, Santana has averaged 207 innings from 2010-14.  His strikeout rate jumped to 8.2 per nine this year, his best mark since ’08.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Giants figure to be in the market for starting pitching.
12. Kenta Maeda – Astros. Maeda, 27 in April, is the next big thing out of Japan. The right-handed starting pitcher is expected to be posted by the Hiroshima Carp in November. Assuming multiple teams reach the $20MM posting fee maximum, it will be open bidding among those clubs afterward. As a team that fell short on Tanaka last year, the Astros could bring Maeda in to front their rotation for less than the Big Three starters will cost.  Most of the teams named for Ervin Santana could be possibilities here.
13. David Robertson – Cubs. Robertson is the best free agent reliever this winter, and the 29-year-old may be aiming to top Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM deal. Indeed, a reliever of Robertson’s caliber hasn’t hit the free agent market since Papelbon three years ago. The Yankees tendered a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer, which Robertson should easily turn down in search of a career payday.  The Cubs and White Sox are other potential fits given large amounts of payroll space and protected first-round picks.
14. Brandon McCarthy – Pirates. McCarthy came up big after a July 6th trade from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees, posting a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts. The cerebral righty has a history of shoulder problems, however, and 2014 was his first time topping 170 2/3 innings. That might make an Edwin Jackson-level four-year deal hard to come by, but it’s easy to picture a dozen different teams showing interest.
15. Francisco Liriano – Red Sox.  The 31-year-old southpaw may come out seeking a four-year deal, but like McCarthy, low innings totals might prevent him from getting it.  Liriano brings lots of strikeouts and grounders but plenty of walks too.  He had a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh; will that success carry over to a new team?  Liriano also carries the weight of a qualifying offer, so teams with protected first-rounders like the Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks could be better fits.
16. Chase Headley – Red Sox.  Headley is one of the game’s best defensive third basemen.  The 30 home run power he showed in 2012 looks like a fluke, but he remains an above average hitter who draws a good share of walks.  Unlike Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Aramis Ramirez, Headley is not eligible for a qualifying offer.  He seems in good position for a four-year deal.  The Yankees may look to bring him back as A-Rod insurance, while the Red Sox might be their primary competition if they can’t sign Sandoval.  The Giants and Brewers could consider Headley if Sandoval and Aramis Ramirez move on, respectively.
17. Andrew Miller – Tigers.  Miller’s stock rose dramatically after a dominant 2014 campaign.  He’s a hard-throwing lefty with a nasty slider and a huge strikeout rate, and he also kept his walks in check for the first time this year.  Unlike Robertson, Miller is not eligible for a qualifying offer.  He could be the first non-closing reliever to snag a four-year deal since 2007, and it’s easy to name a dozen potential suitors who would love to plug him into the eighth or ninth inning.
18. Justin Masterson – Cubs.  Masterson, 30 in March, was very good in 2011 and ’13 when he was able to keep his walk rate in check.  The lanky righty has a bowling ball sinker and the groundball rate to back it up.  The Indians were unable to lock him up long-term, trading him to the Cardinals on July 30th.  Masterson struggled with both teams, but knee inflammation was a mitigating factor.  The Cubs are a good fit given the Theo Epstein connection and Masterson’s Midwest upbringing, but it’s likely a dozen teams will show interest in the pitcher.  There’s a good chance he gets multiyear offers, but he may prefer one year to rebuild value.
19. Aramis Ramirez – Brewers. Ramirez, 36, still might be a top ten hitter as a third baseman, and he was basically Sandoval’s equal with the bat this year in the regular season. Ramirez has spent his entire career in the NL Central, most recently with the Brewers. They’ve picked up their side of his $14MM mutual option, and we believe Ramirez will turn down his side to keep his options open and try for a two-year deal. If a compromise can’t be reached with the Brewers, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels, and Giants could be fits. UPDATE: Ramirez has accepted his side of the mutual option, preferring to play on a one-year deal.
20. Colby Rasmus – White Sox.  Rasmus, a young free agent at age 28, hits the market coming off a disappointing season in which he lost his starting role with the Blue Jays.  He has a pair of star-caliber seasons on his resume in 2010 and 2013, but he struggled mightily in 2011, ’12, and ’14.  He offers big power and has little free agent competition as a center fielder, but he also strikes out a lot and has struggled to hit left-handed pitching.  His market will open up considerably if he is willing to play a corner outfield position.  He should receive multiyear offers but may prefer one year.  The White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Giants could be possibilities.
21. Jed Lowrie – Blue Jays.  Lowrie, 31 in April, might be the best middle infielder on the free agent market now that J.J. Hardy has signed an extension with the Orioles.  The power Lowrie showed from 2012-13 is rare among shortstops, but his production dropped off this year, his second with Oakland.  Lowrie’s negative defensive runs saved figures from each of the last three seasons back up his reputation as a shaky defender, and his market would widen if he’s open to second base.  Assuming the A’s can’t afford a possible three-year deal to bring him back, the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Reds, and Dodgers could be suitors.
22. Jason Hammel – Twins.  Hammel is a quality mid-tier starting pitcher.  The 32-year-old posted a 3.47 ERA for the Cubs and A’s this year with an 8.1 K/9 rate.  He was useful in 2012 as well, but has had some off years and has never reached 178 innings in a season.  He still should be able to find a two or three-year deal.  Aside from the Twins, the Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Pirates, and Giants could make sense.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera – Mets.  Cabrera is neck-and-neck with Lowrie for the top free agent shortstop position.  He’s got consistent home run power and good durability.  Like Lowrie, his defense has been questioned and an openness to second base would help.  Any of the clubs listed for Lowrie could be fits for Cabrera, as we at MLBTR pegged them for very similar contracts.  It could come down to a matter of preference between the two middle infielders for those teams.
24. Nick Markakis – Orioles.  The Orioles chose a $2MM buyout over Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option, so it wasn’t surprising when they also declined to make a qualifying offer. Markakis has settled in as a durable right fielder with a solid OBP. Without a qualifying offer, that might be enough for a four-year deal. The Orioles are the only team he’s ever known, but if they are unable to re-sign him, the Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Mets, Reds, and Giants could be fits.
25. Adam LaRoche – Padres. LaRoche, 35 this month, posted a career-best .362 on-base percentage in 2014. He also popped a healthy 26 home runs, third among free agents. One negative is that he has been ineffective against left-handed pitching. The Nationals recently chose a $2MM buyout over LaRoche’s $15MM mutual option, and chose not to make a qualifying offer. Without that encumbrance, LaRoche can try for a three-year deal but may still settle for two. The Brewers are off the board for LaRoche after acquiring Adam Lind, but the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins may look to upgrade at first base. The Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, and Angels could make sense in some scenarios.
26. Jake Peavy – Cubs.  Peavy enters free agency for the first time in his career, and the 2007 Cy Young winner is now a mid-rotation starter.  He posted a 3.73 ERA for the Red Sox and Giants this year.  His stock improved given a 2.17 ERA in San Francisco, even if he won’t be able to repeat the 3.2% home run per flyball rate he experienced there.  His agent may seek a three-year deal, but two seems more likely.  Peavy seems likely to weigh factors other than money heavily in his decision.  He likes the idea of a free agent package deal with buddy Jon Lester, though the Cubs aren’t likely to sign all three pitchers for which they’re listed here.  There should be plenty of suitors for Peavy, but his personal preference will play a big role.
27. Hiroki Kuroda – Retirement. Kuroda, 40 in February, has been a lock for about 200 innings and a sub-4.00 ERA for the past five seasons. He’s always had great control, and brought his walk rate down to 1.6 per nine this year for the Yankees. Currently, it’s unclear whether Kuroda will pitch in 2015. If he does, his options figure to be limited by choice, but he’s at least not burdened by a qualifying offer. A return to the Dodgers, his first MLB team, is worth considering, especially because his family still lives in the area.  On that note, the Angels shouldn’t be ruled out either.
28. Mike Morse – Rangers.  Morse is a productive right-handed bat.  He’s mostly played the outfield corners and first base in his career, but more time at designated hitter might help keep him healthy and limit runs lost due to subpar defense.  The Rangers, Indians, Royals, Athletics, and Padres could be fits on a likely two-year deal.
29. Michael Cuddyer – Mariners.  Cuddyer is similar to Morse on this market: a corner outfielder/first base bat who should probably focus on the American League for a chance to act as a designated hitter semi-regularly.  Cuddyer, 36 in March, averaged 93 games per season on his three-year Rockies contract due to injuries but hit exceptionally well there, including solid road numbers in 2013-14.  The Mariners figure to be in on him, and the Orioles, Rangers, and Mets are other possibilities. UPDATE: Cuddyer received a surprising qualifying offer from the Rockies, and stands a good chance of accepting it.
30. Alex Rios – Giants.  If Morse and Cuddyer are best-served as bat-only players, the outfield market this year is pretty thin.  Rios could be a cheaper alternative to Markakis.  He’ll be 34 in February and is coming off a replacement-level performance, owed in part to an injury-plagued August.  Rios isn’t much of a power or walk threat, but he hits for average, mashes lefties, and generally avoids the DL.  A one-year deal to rebuild value makes sense, and the Giants, Mets, Twins, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Phillies, and Reds could be fits. Rios switched to the Boras Corporation for representation on the eve of his free agency.
31. Edinson Volquez  – Braves.  As a 31-year-old coming off a 3.04 ERA for the Pirates, Volquez is in good shape for his first two or three-year deal.  His 6.5 K/9 this year was a career-low for any full season, but his 3.3 BB/9 was a career-best and he still gets groundballs and throws hard.  There’s upside here, and it could interest teams like the Braves, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, and Diamondbacks.
32. Luke Gregerson – White Sox.  Gregerson has long been one of the game’s top setup men, and he posted a career-best 2.12 ERA this year.  Over his six years in the Majors, he leads MLB in holds.  Gregerson limits free passes, keeps the ball on the ground, and stays healthy.  He gets it done without throwing hard, but it should be noted that he’s spent his career in pitchers’ parks and hasn’t been as good on the road.  Gregerson seems a lock for a healthy three-year deal, and the White Sox, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, and Dodgers figure to be among the teams seeking relief help.
33. Torii Hunter – Rangers.  Hunter, 39, continued to show consistent right-handed power this year with 17 home runs.  However, his poor defense in right field negated much of his value, so remaining in the American League seems wise.  He’s leaning toward playing in 2015 and hopes to remain with the Tigers.  Otherwise, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Mariners, and Rangers could take a look at him.
34. A.J. Burnett – Royals. Burnett turned down a $12.75MM player option with the Phillies, preferring to pitch for a contender in 2015 even if it means taking less money. Burnett, who will turn 38 in January, had an off year with the Phillies as his walk rate jumped up to 4.0 per nine. With teams like the Orioles, Nationals, and Mets not seeking starting pitching and the Yankees probably not seeking a reunion, Burnett may have to relax his oft-cited preference to play near his Maryland home if the Red Sox and Pirates aren’t interested.
35. Sergio Romo – Dodgers.  Romo, 32 in March, was removed from the Giants’ closing role in late June.  As a flyball pitcher, he can be prone to the home run, but even this year his strikeout and walk rates suggested the skills for the sub-3.00 ERAs he strung together from 2010-13.  He should find a strong three-year deal somewhere, especially if he’s open-minded about pitching the eighth or ninth inning.  If the Giants don’t re-sign Romo, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Cubs, Rockies, and Dodgers could be in the mix.
36. Francisco Rodriguez – Blue Jays.  K-Rod returned to the ninth inning with a 44-save season with the Brewers.  Saves don’t pay like they used to, and Rodriguez did allow 14 home runs in 68 innings.  Still, a solid two-year deal should be attainable with any of the teams listed above for Romo, or the Brewers if he takes a discount.
37. Rafael Soriano – Astros.  Soriano has cashed in on saves with multiple previous contracts.  With the Nationals this year, he saved 32 games but lost his closer job in early September.  He’s still a useful member of a bullpen, capable of ERAs in the low 3.00s despite extreme flyball tendencies.
38. Ryan Vogelsong – Giants.  Vogelsong, 37, didn’t appear in the Majors from 2007-10, but has re-established himself as a solid #4 starter.  The Giants could use the innings he provides, but the other teams listed for Hammel and Volquez would also make sense.
39. Aaron Harang – Giants.  Released by the Indians in March, Harang went on to toss 204 1/3 innings of 3.57 ball for the Braves.  The durable 36-year-old veteran would make a solid addition to the back end of someone’s rotation on a two-year deal.  Remaining in the NL and in a pitcher-friendly park give him the best shot at repeating his 2014 numbers, but he should garner interest from AL clubs as well.
40. Nori Aoki – Reds.  A three-time Nippon Professional Baseball batting champion, the Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki three years ago.  He was traded to the Royals last December.  Aoki, 33 in January, has a .353 career on-base percentage in MLB.  A left-handed hitter, Aoki has actually hit southpaws better than righties for the past two seasons.  He’s known for some circuitous routes in right field, but his defensive numbers are acceptable.  Aoki seems in line for a multiyear deal, and could fit with the Reds, White Sox, Twins, Mets, and Giants.  The Royals are also believed to be interested in retaining him.
41. Billy Butler – Mariners.  Butler is limited to American League teams where he can spend most of his time at DH.  A right-handed bat, he turns 29 in April.  He’s slugged just .396 over the past two seasons, and this year his walk rate dropped to a career-worst 6.8%.  The Royals have declined his club option, and he may need to find a new home.  The Mariners, Orioles, Indians, A’s, and Rangers are potential matches, and the Mariners have been connected to him multiple times in recent offseasons.
42. Stephen Drew – Athletics.  Drew was saddled by a qualifying offer last winter and did not find the offers to his liking.  The shortstop sat out until May 20th, removing the draft pick cost from the equation and signing for a pro-rated version of the $14.1MM qualifying offer with Boston.  He was flipped to the Yankees at the trade deadline in a rare deal between the AL East rivals.  Perhaps it was the long layoff, but Drew was brutal with the bat in 2014.  Still, there’s no question he can play a capable shortstop, and that’s not as certain for Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera.  Drew figures to sign his third consecutive one-year free agent deal.  The A’s, Yankees, Astros, Mets, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Nationals are all possibly seeking help in the middle infield.
43. Emilio Bonifacio – Braves.  Bonifacio offers speed, defense, versatility, and relative youth, although he doesn’t hit much.  He’s the free agent leader for wins above replacement at both second base and center field, though that’s more a function of the weak market at those positions.  As a super-utility guy on a two-year deal, he could provide depth for a lot of teams.
44. Casey Janssen – Dodgers.  Janssen, 33, posted a 2.46 ERA from 2011-13 but posted a 5.65 mark in the final three months of 2014.  He suffered a case of violent food poisoning over the All-Star break and wasn’t the same afterward.  Given his track record, he could be a bargain buy for the many teams seeking late-inning relief.
45. Pat Neshek – Astros.  Neshek, a 34-year-old sidearmer, signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals in February and went on to make the All-Star team.  He posted a stellar 1.87 ERA in 67 1/3 innings overall, appears in line for a two-year deal and could fit in the bullpen of contending clubs and non-contenders alike.
46. Brandon Morrow – Dodgers.  Morrow, 30, has been limited to 212 1/3 innings over the last three seasons due to an oblique strain, an entrapped radial nerve in his forearm, and a torn tendon sheath in a finger on his throwing hand.  He still averages 94 miles per hour on his fastball, and he wants to continue as a starting pitcher rather than a reliever.  The fifth overall draft pick in 2006, Morrow should battle Brett Anderson as this winter’s most attractive high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher.  Those types generally draw a long list of bargain-seekers, though teams in pitcher-friendly environments should be more appealing to the player.
47. Jason Grilli – Yankees.  Grilli, 38 in November, re-emerged as an effective reliever with the Pirates in 2011.  The Bucs sent him to the Angels in a change of scenery swap for Ernesto Frieri in late June this year.  Grilli did solid work for the Halos and should be a popular late-inning option.
48. Brett Anderson – Twins.  Anderson, just 27 in February, is a tantalizing free agent.  He set a career-high with 175 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2009 with the A’s, and has seen injuries pile up since.  He tallied only 123 frames for all of 2012-14 due to Tommy John surgery, a broken foot, and surgeries his back and a broken finger this year.  It would make sense for him to focus on a pitcher-friendly ballpark as he looks to re-establish himself, and Minnesota was among the teams to show interest before he was traded to the Rockies last year.
49. Josh Johnson – Padres.  Johnson, 31 in January, was the prime high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher from last offseason.  He had Tommy John surgery in late April, however, so 2015 will be an abbreviated campaign at best.  Johnson’s front-rotation abilities are getting further in the rearview mirror, but his potential if healthy remains interesting.  The Padres turned down a $4MM club option, but Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick said, “His first choice is to go back to San Diego.”
50. Jung-ho Kang – Orioles. After hitting 38 home runs in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2014, Kang could be the first position player to make the leap from KBO to MLB. MLBTR spoke to an international scouting director who finds Kang fringy at shortstop, suggesting he’s better suited for second or third base. He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop. That still has value.
We’re listing Japanese pitcher Chihiro Kaneko as an honorable mention at this point, as it’s not certain he’ll be posted. We’re also keeping Cuban defectors Hector Olivera and Jose Fernandez in this section because of the uncertain timeline of their potential free agency.
Other honorable mentions: Kendrys Morales, Joba Chamberlain, Rickie Weeks, Chris Capuano, Gavin Floyd, Roberto Hernandez, Chris Young, Neal Cotts, Burke Badenhop, Zach Duke, Chad Billingsley, Luke Hochevar, Geovany Soto, A.J. Pierzynski, Tsuyoshi Wada
I think I need a few minutes to process these many changes. Woo. Okay, now that I’ve relaxed…I really hope we don’t let D-Rob go. I think it will be a mistake, besides ruining my vision of a three-headed monster bullpen of Miller, Betances and Robertson. I don’t see us signing Sherzer. I mean, having soo many pitchers making over $20MM a year? And signing Hanley? I just can’t see it. Give me Headly, McCarthy, Drew, Miller and DRob. Call it a winter.
I actually think that’s completely viable, and would probably recommend it.
Honestly I like your predictions but I see them signing Asdrubal Cabrera to take over at shortstop over Drew
Yea I see Cabrera going to the Yanks
I agree with all of those names except for Drew too but I think they’d sooner go after Jed Lowrie than Asdrubal Cabrera.
I really don’t want Sherzer. I think he is overrated, is going to break down way earlier than many expect, and honestly is someone who is averaging like a 43 fb% really a good fit for Yankee Stadium. I’m not big on Lester, but he would be a way better fit there too.
I agree with you. I think whoever signs Scherzer may be happy for the first couple of years, but is likely to really be grousing about the back end of the contract.
Yankee fans have 2-3 years of pain before ARod, Tex, and CC come off the books so we are going to need a big time pitcher this year to help win those games when the old guys can barely produce more than 3 runs a game. I think Shields makes the most sense. They can get him on a 4 – 5 year deal so they won’t be married to him much longer after those three albatross contracts finally expire.
Yankees need offense. Not another pitcher that they can’t win games with anyways.
Yeah, I think they might focus on scoring more than 3 runs a game lol
I disagree. Good pitching trumps good hitting especially in the postseason! I am a Twins fan and their offense was 7th in runs scored, but their starting pitching was TERRIBLE! They lost over 90 games this season
Aiming to be above average at everything is one of the better solutions. You need both run prevention and run creation.
If you have good pitching, but terrible offense, your best course of action is going to be to get more offense. If you have good offense already, your better course of action is going to get a pitcher.
Yankees had decent pitching, they couldn’t hit themselves out of a paper bag though.
Long response… I agree they need hitting, but they are already jam packed with ridiculous contracts that they can never unload which occupy 1st, 3rd, and DH . The OF is already filled… except for half the games at LF. They are filled at C. So that leaves 2B and SS. What big hitters are out there? Hanley is actually a 3B and gets hurt all the time so forget him, and Tulo (who is supposedly available) also gets hurt all of the time. The Yankees need to somehow get through 2 season so they can rid themselves of Beltran, Tex, and then cut ARod if they haven’t already by then. Then you are looking at 4ish years left on Tanaka and the big arm you sign this year and you can go out and a spend heavily on almost all of your positions.
Drew at short an Prado at second you mean? Who’s ur reserve outfielder besides Ichiro? Are you not concerned about Beltran’s health? What about Tex’s health? If the Yanks put A-Rod at first and Headley at third…then Beltran DH and Ichiro in right? I agree with you that Scherzer sounds out of the window but why McCarthy? Tanaka, Pineda, Nova, Sabathia and Greene sounds just fine, and plus we still have Phelps and Warren. Adding Miller to the pen and keeping DRob would be wonderful. I really think we’d have to sign another middle infielder since you have no guarantee on the production of Prado and Drew together. Brendan Ryan certainly isn’t an option so I believe HanRam is the right choice. If you really don’t like him, prehaps look at Jung-ho Kang. And last thing, Headley is not elligible for a qualifying offer so he compared to others is easier to sign else where. If Headley goes, would you bring in HanRam? Put him at the hot corner and fill in for Drew at short if A-Rod plays third from time to time.
Drew at short and Refsynder at 2B. Prado will be your ultimate utility player who can play anywhere. Of course this depends on if Refsynder can beat him out in ST. Of course, everyone is concerned about Beltran’s health, but we don’t need another big-name outfielder. We could easily resign Chris Young for cheap and have him be a better Ichiro. Ichiro is done with the Yankees. Why McCarthy? Look at his numbers, he did fantastic at Yankees stadium and with a good defensive infield behind him…he will continue to do so. Nova will not be back until late May, so who do we have in the rotation until then? Warren? No no no. Phelps and Warren are middle relief fodder, nothing more. They are not serviceable starters at the big league level. So you trust the health of HanRam over the health of Beltran, despite Beltran being more healthy and playing more games than HanRam over the last 3 years? If Headly goes down, plug Prado in at 3B. HanRam is not a good shortstop, he is a third baseman waiting to happen. Also a DL stint waiting to happen, so no thank you.
Looks like you already covered all the incorrect things he said. Ichiro is gone and Nova is out for a while, like you said. This is how the 2015 Yankees will look:
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Prado
3B: Headley
SS: Drew/Ryan platoon
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: A-Rod
A-Rod can also play a little 1st and 3rd. Headley can play some 1st. Prado can play some OF, Refsnyder can play some 2B and OF, etc. There’s tons of versatility.
Rotation is:
Tanaka
Pineda
McCarthy
Greene
Sabathia
Phelps is 6th and Nova is 7th. Though really Sabathia should be 7th.
Hard to think that team would get us to the post season. We should be more concerned about defense at SS. I also like the idea of keeping Headley for defensive reasons and I think he should hit well in the stadium. I hope Refsnyder makes the team so we will have a little more youth on the team.
A team with Jeter at SS and hitting 2nd in the lineup, 4 injured starting pitchers, less than half a year from Greene, McCarthy, Headley, and Prado managed to get within 4 games of a playoff spot. I think by having full seasons with Tanaka, Pineda, Headley, Prado, McCarthy, and no Jeter…we can manage to find 4 wins in there.
Sabathia will be slotted 3 at the lowest while he pitches, just for silly team politics and crud. It’s not smart, but it’s what will happen.
Disagree. I think Sabathia will be slotted at #1 which is insane but it’ll happen unfortunately.
Also, Tanaka pitching an entire season in 2015 is far from certain. McCarthy would be a good look without taking on a massive contract.
Why sign Miller when the younger version of him (Lindgren) is already in the minors? The Yanks already have Rumbelow in the minors as well as backup for Lindgren.. Other than that I like your predictions.. Drew would be perfect for a 2 year contract.. He will hit way better than he did last year and somebody has to hit 8th in Girardi’s lineup.. Mateo and Aguilar are both solid prospects that should be worth a look in a couple of years.. So Drew would be a solid stopgap..
I hope in the case of Hanley Ramirez that for once the Yankees do not sign the flashy free agent and go for less *interesting* options. I harp on Stephen Drew a lot, but I’d rather have his defense than Ramirez’s bat. All day. And Jason Grilli instead of David Robertson? Honestly, the predictions here for the Yankees kind of make me want to cry.
Honestly I would be alright with Hanley if the price is right. People are way undervaluing him because he is at the wrong position.
Sherzer I do not want.
I like Hanley on a short contract but not on the 7 years he will most likely get.
The upside to Hanley Ramirez is that he can be shifted to 3rd eventually. But, in a market for infielders that is paper thin he is not my first, second, or even third choice, frankly.
It is something that would have to take deep discussions within the team. Hanley is the type of bat that is hard to pass up, but something isn’t working right. Do the scouts think shifting to 3B mitigates the injuries, and the poor defense?
Hanley isn’t really a shortstop, but he has the bat that plays anywhere.
Don’t worry, the predictions here this year are so insanely off, that I don’t even see them getting 10 right out of 50. Simply put: those aren’t happening. No need to cry. Maybe they decided it would be funny this year to see if they can get the perfectly wrong prediction list or something.
Many people will get more picks right than me this year. If you participate in the contest and are one of them, you have those bragging rights. It’s a big reason I started the contest – everyone is on equal footing to put in their picks.
Touché. I started filling it out but 50 is a lot and I’m way too lazy.
I do have to admit, I am sort of rooting for you to be wrong about some (all) of the Yankees picks 😉 And I am not too lazy to fill out my form, and I would love to brag about it, if I do well. It’s a fantastic idea and solidified MLBTR’s status as my favorite website.
So apparently the Cubs are signing everyone?
Yep, and according to the comment thread apparently Brandon McCarthy is going to sign with everyone.
Hes going to be a 1-2 year deal less then 10M a year who puts up decent numbers. Everyone should want him.
I do. And as a Cubs and Yankees fan I want him to sign with *both.* 😉
Id love Lester and then Masterson or Peavy (preferably Masterson), but I do not want Russell Martin at all. He is gonna cost way too much and is only going to decline. No reason to pay him for the career year he had with Pittsburgh.
Martin should have 3-4 solid years left in him. Oh, by the way, this wasn’t his “career year”. That happened back in 2007, though 2014 was indeed a very good season for him. I don’t think he will cost nearly as much as many seem to think, as his most recent track record prior to 2014 has not been so golden. In fact, I somewhat doubt he will get much more than 3-4 years at $36-48M gauranteed.
As a Cub fan, I would absolutely love to see them sign Martin… and only about half of that desire comes from what I believe he may do on the field. Martin has shown over the years that he is capable of and willing to mentor young catchers and aid in their development. Not only would this potentially benefit Beef Castillo, but with the team’s decision to develop Schwarber as a C would be greatly boosted with Martin’s possible assistance. If the Cubs can turn Schwabbie into a left-handed, slugging C with high OBP capabilities… plus train him to average or better defensive abilities… that 1st round pick decision suddenly turns from potential fool’s gold to 24 carat.
Yeah, the Cubs signing Martin and Robertson doesn’t make sense for me. Our bullpen is actually quite solid and Castillo is solid, both Robertson and Martin would cost a lot for only a marginal upgrade.
Im strongly against Martin simply because he is going to be a huge overpay for a guy coming off a career year. Castillo is good enough to spend that money wiser elsewhere.
The bullpen guys people have been suggesting (Robertson and Andrew Miller) just seem like awful ways to spend money. We should have a pretty solid, young, cheap bullpen next season and have a bunch of back-end of the rotation guys who could fill any holes that could pop up. I see zero reason to go out and commit ourselves to a large, long term contract for a bullpen arm. It just seems silly
Martin would not be a bad signing for the Cubs as he is known to be a great game caller and pitcher framer adding a lot of value to a team looking to develop young pitchers. D-Rob makes no sense at all.
Well they probably will make a splash this offseason after signing Maddon
Y would the rangers be interested in tori Hunter or Mike Morse
just what they need. The Cubs are looking for quality over quanity, Go Cubbies!!
To fill in for Alex Rios, especially if Choo needs to DH more then once a week.
Hunter is getting old and Mike Morse is terrible with RISP
I don’t really know why Hunter other then just getting a guy for the position. Morse’s RISP was comparable to Nelson Cruz, who Jon Daniels loved.
I can tell you this the rangers will go after melky, or markiasias and if they don’t get either of them then they can go after Willingham, cuddyer, hunter, or Mike Morse
I tend to agree with you on this. I’d think Melky has to be at the top of the Rangers list. I’m not sure they will want to pay the kind of money he wants, but he’s be a good fit. In the end, I think we end up with Morse.
What about torii hunter
I don’t think Hunter will come here. He’s had a few chances to come here and for what ever reason always ends up somewhere else. I wouldn’t hate the move only because he would be a good stop gap until one of the younger guys could take over in 2016.
Hunter could play in left field for Texas and choo could play in right field and Morse can be on the bench and can play any position on the field sports fan
I’m not disagreeing with you on if Hunter could help the Rangers. I just don’t think he’ll come here.
If the rangers don’t go after outfielders like melky or markiasias then they have to go after hunter Morse willingham or cuddyer
Mariners team president says focus will be on signing high impact, non-middling free agents. MLBTR promptly posts that the Mariners will not sign a single high impact free agent, but will instead sign two middling right-handed DHs. Such quality here….
I think it would make more sense to focus on the free agents for which they’re listed as possibilities (there’s already a disclaimer up there explaining why I’d pick two redundant players like Butler and Cuddyer for one team). We all understand the Mariners will be players for V-mart and Cruz. I just liked other teams a little more for those guys when trying to make a prediction in a vaccuum for the player.
Wouldn’t it be a better choice for Butler to sign in a smaller ballpark? Something akin to what Nelson Cruz did in 2014.
Mariners are not the best pick for a hitter to rebuild value – that’s probably why Nelson Cruz didn’t sign there last winter. But the market for a right-handed hitting DH might be kind of limited.
My understanding (from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune) was that Nelson Cruz had agreed to sign with the Mariners for “roughly $7.5 million in 2014 with a club option of about $9 million for 2105…before ownership backed away. The primary concern, which all clubs shared, was how Cruz, then 33, would respond after being caught and suspended as part of the Biogenesis
drug scandal.”
Yes, but I think there’s more to it than that, and part of it is that Cruz wasn’t dying to play in Seattle.
Cruz wanted a place that was easy to hit out of and that is why he ultimately went with the O’s. Camden allows a lot of HRs to fly out of that place and they had a team that had a chance to win it.
From what I read the Mariners front office balked on Cruz due to the ped issue and actually had a deal on place for Cruz
Does that make sense though? They knew about the PEDs. Everybody did. He used them back in 2011 and got busted in August 2013. If that was the deal-breaker, why would there have been a deal in place to begin with?
Frankly, given how much of an outlier last season was for V-Mart, I’d rather go with Cuddyer who can play outfield if needed. If the M’s can save money filling the DH or corner OF role, they could spend big on a starting pitcher. I’m not comfortable with relying on all three of Walker, Paxton and Elias to come through next season.
Cuddyer over V Mart ? Not me
Not most, VMart has been RAKING the last season and a half.
Not saying Cuddyer is the better player. I’m saying the overpay for V-Mart is very likely to be huge. Guys don’t typically have their best power year at age 35. That screams “outlier” to me and you’ll be paying every nickel for him to do that for four years, plus a nice cherry on top to play in Seattle.
I’m saying I’d rather have Cuddyer plus Yasmany Tomas plus Ervin Santana than V-Mart plus bargain-basement options in place of those other two. The M’s have some potential DH bats about to reach the majors as well, so no reason to get into a long contract there. The system is pretty weak on starting pitchers and righty corner OF’s though.
That guy in your avatar had his highest HR total and his third-highest ISO at age 37. That said, I understand your concern and I won’t say it’s unfounded. Personally, what impresses me about Victor is his approach at the plate, not the home runs. Watching him hit this year, he seemed more locked-in than anybody else in the league. He was an incredibly tough at-bat. Could that be PEDs? Sure. I’m way past trusting that players are clean. But if it’s not juice, I wouldn’t worry about it going away. The guy is an exceptionally focused hitter — much like the guy in your avatar.
Funny how you dont have the Tigers getting anyone but Miller.with the best owner in sports you need to rethink what you think you know about the Tigers.Even without Scherzer the Tigers are still major players in 2015.3rd lowest odds to win it all in 2015.They are still one of the best rotations in baseball.They will be players and will end up with Lester or Shields and maybe Martin or Cruz.or both
Best owner in sports?
Yes…BEST owner in sports…see DETROIT RED WINGS in addition to doing everything he can to bring a WC here for the people of Detroit in baseball…think that qualifies him
Tigers ownership has spent a lot of money and made many good moves but this seems like a bit (lot) of hyperbole. See: Fister trade/giveaway!
You’re confusing the GM with the owner. The owner doesn’t make the trades, he pays the bills. Mr. Ilitch is head and shoulders (not a Wilson reference) above most owners in that regard.
He’s doing everything he can to bring a Wild Card to Detroit? I guess that’s the problem, not shooting for a World Series title.
I believe the WC as he used it referred to a World Championship. And he’s right. Mr. Ilitch dug into his own pockets to get Fielder because he’s an elderly man and has talked about the shrinking window for him to enjoy the rings he wants to bring to Detroit. He’s a very conscientious owner with tremendous civic pride.
The Dewitt’s, owners of the St Louis Cardinals have built the organization as the class of the MLB. A team that builds from within their own organization and fill in a few free agents. Yearly in the playoffs.
Tigers seem limited by the huge commitments they have, but certainly one can picture Ilitch overriding that and getting a big name.
If you don’t have the Tigers as favorites for resigning VMart @ 4 years/$60million because of budget, I don’t see how you can have them as contenders for Melky @ 5 years/$70 million.
VMart would not cost a draft pick.
Also, apparently you didn’t see the White Sox Tiger game around September 24. Sale drilled Martinez in the ribs and accused him of having his son relaying the signs to him from center field.
Money can smooth everything over, but I wouldn’t discount the bad blood.
Money always solves bad blood. They’re division rivals, there is supposed to be tension and competition!
When someone throws at your ribs in the middle of a pennant race and publicly calls you a cheat, it is not easily forgotten. That’s not just typical division rivalry.
The White Sox would have to offer a lot more than the Indians, Royals, Tigers or anyone else is willing to pay.
What makes you call Ilitch the best owner in sports?
Because he is! Just get over it!
Just because they chose most of the players as more likely to sign somewhere other than Detroit doesn’t mean they’re saying Detroit couldn’t sign anyone else. If (based on MLBTR’s determination) Player A is 30% likely to sign with, say, the Rangers and 25% likely to sign with the Tigers, they’re going to say Rangers on here. The Giants are listed for Vogelsong, Harang and Santana despite two vacancies (one if Lincecum starts to begin the year) and a long man who could get also conceivably get a spot in Petit. That doesn’t mean the Giants are going to sign three starters, those three are just likely targets
Yes, this is exactly right. The problem with taking this approach is that the more natural thing is for a Giants fan to skim the list, see I listed them for three SPs, and think it’s weird and won’t happen. And I wouldn’t blame someone for that. But since I probably don’t have more than 30% confidence in any pick, I’d hate to have one influence another.
Miguel will be on the DL to start the year, Price is going to be a bust! Tigers have gotten lucky with career years from alot of players. Their window is closed!
I think the Tigers sign Morales as their DH – I don’t see them signing one of the big 3 Pitchers… With Price, Verlander, Sanchez, and Porcello.. they really only need a 5th starter. Much better options in 2016 as well.
I picked Rios and Rasmus to go to the Tigers, as well as Miller… then can see them signing Morales and perhaps a pitcher like Paulino.
Apparently they feel the Cardinals are taking the winter off. They have no one going to the Cardinals. At the same time they have the Cubs using the entire 40 man roster for each of 162 with the number of players going to them.
These aren’t overwhelming odds on anyone, no one is saying these are all correct. Many people think the Cubs are going to be big players this winter. They won’t sign all these, but they will probably be connected to many of them all winter, and will probably sign a few. If you have a 30% chance, and like 6 other teams interested you have the highest odds, but odds are that you don’t get that player.
You say you;’re a Tigers fan but apparently you haven’t been paying attention to what your team’s GM has been saying about this offseason. Detroit is already well above where they should be as a mid-market team and won’t be buying anybody who’ll cost over $20 mil a year this winter.
When you consider media market, attendance and television ratings, Detroit is not a mid market team.
The GM did say they are near the top end of their budget and will have to improve the team wisely. That is nothing new for Detroit.
Payroll will go up, but not by much.
They are not going to lose VMart and Hunter and get nobody back.
Price already replaced Scherzer.
Yes the yankees strategy of signing high dollar free agents has paid dividends in recent history..
Honestly the vibe so far is for more restrained spending. Scherzer and Hanley don’t have obvious fits to me (and I don’t think the Yankees would sign both).
I agree I added that comment with a hidden sense of sarcasm
That was the vibe last offseason…right up until they pulled out the credit card for Ellsbury and McCann. I’m not saying it’s “bad.” I am saying that I will believe they are reigning things in when they do.
I really don’t see Yankees as fits for Scherzer, I just don’t see him working out there, not to mention he lets up way too many flyballs for ys. But at the same time I struggle to see where else he would fit, and I don’t see $175MM. I can see Shields and Boston, and Lester in Chicago, the only place I saw for that price was LA, but doubt the dodgers more with Friedman in charge, and does LA have the payrolls space?
Maybe Scherzer ends up back in Detroit?
Maybe, but do they want to go that high a price? Verlander and Anibal already significant money, and Porcello and Price are free agents next winter.
They already did offer him a high price of $144 million at one point. I’m not saying they’d go up to $175 million but $144 million isn’t exactly chump change.
I have a gut feeling that Shields and Liriano would implode in Boston. Headley I don’t mind too much if they deal Middlebrooks.
Middlebrooks will be in AAA this season. There’s no trade there that returns anything of value.
I wouldn’t give up too quickly on him — Royals were patient with Moustakas and that paid dividends so I hope we don’t pull the plug on him too quickly.
I’m still not thrilled with Moustakas, but I don’t advocate trading Middlebrooks. He’ll spend the year in AAA. It probably wouldn’t hurt for him to get some reps at first base. Cecchini too for that matter.
Add LF to that as well, anyway to become more valuable to the team (or others). If Manny can do it then they can.
Ehh, we’ve gone from a lack of outfielders to a glut in a matter of months. The only real reason to play either of them there is to add trade value. I say first base because I think they’ll let Nap walk at the end of the season and it would be good to have more in house options than Allen Craig. But Craig could surprise us all and figure everything out next season.
It would be great if Craig returned to his 2011-2013 form but who knows at this point. The biggest question is going to be who gets traded and for who, not from the big league level but those that are rule5 eligible as well.
That’s true. The free agent signings that Tim mentioned make sense from the Red Sox ownership and front off ice perspective. They look like the types they’d go for. I’m not thrilled with Shields as a number one, but would take him as a number two with a trade for a number one. I wouldn’t mind Headley at third. He’s a human vacuum cleaner over there. Liriano is a big no in my book. Rather see Masterson on a make good or McCarthy. So many questions. More than I can recall in any recent off season.
Liriano is too inconsistent and I’ve seen it up close as a Twins fan.
5 times (All in the AL), he posted 5+ ERA’s!!! Much rather have one of the kids take the rotation spot
huh?
Is there something I am missing here, Moustakas is still pretty bad of a player,
Not in the postseason
I could see a Moustakas- Middlebrooks swap
Both are underperforming hyped top prospects. I think a change in scenery would help both players greatly.
Why in heavens name would the Royals want to do that?
Moose is a fine ballplayer. He may well be the best fielding 3B in the AL now that Beltre is slowing down.
*Manny Machado waves hello*
Brett Lawrie says “Yo” as well.
But he has been one of the worst hitters in all of baseball. He hits like an all glove SS, but plays 3B.
Have a hard time believing the Orioles would give cruz 4 years 60-70 million at his age
Most steroid users don’t breakdown until a later age.
Where are you getting that? Some stayed healthy, others broke down. Kevin Brown and Mark McGwire broke down, and Alex Rodriguez has broken down, but Bonds stayed healthy, as did Clemens. Would this have long-lasting effects or is it only applicable while they’re taking steroids? I’ve never seen definitive research supporting either view.
Steroids and HGH help the muscle recovery process. That’s a fact. A-Rod “broke down” in 2013 after getting hip surgery. That’s not a muscle. Most guys who breakdown with the use of steroids are breaking down on their bones because their body can’t take the increased mass doing crazy dives and stuff that 200+ pound people shouldn’t be doing, hitting wise A-Rod was still good in 2012 at age 36 and he was even good in 2013 power wise as he’d probably still hit 20-25 homers over a full season.
In the days before steroids were rampant in baseball guys would be on a decline of sorts and still hit 20 homers one year than hit 2-3 the next, that’s kinda been missing over the last decade or so because guys aren’t getting weak until their late 30’s. Kinda how like everyone knows everyone in the NFL is on steroids, these athletes don’t suddenly lose their strength/muscle during the season. We really don’t know if these guys aren’t doing a cycle of stuff during the off-season in baseball. They could very well be doing anything because MLB teams will still pay for you.
Their is no perfect science to who exactly breaks down when. In the case of Clemens and Bonds they are two of the best at their respective crafts of all time and neither likely started juicing till late in their careers which I would say strengthened their late career numbers and kept them both in the game awhile longer. Arid and Big Mac were also generational talents who started using in their 20s as opposed to mid thirties. Yes PEDs make your muscles recover faster but do nothing for your ligaments and tendons beside strengthening the muscles around them. I really believe that some of these guys that used earlier in their career shortened or weakened their shelf life by overusing joints in workouts. Just because the muscles have recovered does not mean the ligaments in your elbow, knee, hip, shoulder etc have. Every body part is finite and can only be used a finite number of times.
Always impressed by the effort required to put something like this together. Even more so if you’re right more than you’re wrong. Props for trying. I said the Cubs were all in before. If they make these signings they really and truly are. Not bad from what I can see you chose for the Red Sox. They all make sense and seem like the organization’s type of moves.
Liriano seems pretty risky though. Would rather have McCarthy or Masterson.
I agree. Not a fan of Liriano. But I think the organization would sign him anyway.
Just a point: if this is what the Yankees do, they would be over $200M just for the top 11 guys on their roster.
Soon just their starting nine will be over $200M, if it hasn’t already.
That really depends on how they structure a Scherzer and Hanley contract, considering Teixeira/Sabathia/Rodriguez only have 2-3 years left on their respective contracts.
I don’t really get your point. Right now, they Yankees are at roughly $167M for the top 9 guys on their roster. If they sign Hanley and Scherzer, they will be well over $200M (probably around $210M for 11 guys). The yearly calculation is based on average annual value so the structure of their contracts would be moot.
For luxury tax purposes, it’s yearly salaries. They’re not staying under the luxury tax in any circumstance, considering they’re only 22 MM below it using your figures right now. But as far as real, tangible money they’ll be paying? That uses yearly salaries, not AAV.
But, does anyone (other than the owners) care how much cash goes in and out of each team on a yearly basis? Luxury tax is calculated based on AAV, not yearly salary.
If the Steinbrenners don’t care about the luxury tax but instead care about their actual payroll obligations exceeding 200 MM, structuring Scherzer and Hanley’s deals to increase in salary when Teixeira, Sabathia, and A-Rod’s deals are gone makes a ton of sense. I’m not sure what you’re not getting about what I’m saying.
The luxury tax calculations are based on AAV. They’re paying taxes on the money over the limit regardless of how the contract disperses the money. Maybe configuring the salaries that way stretches the available cash for a particular year, but it’s terrible long-term. Besides, in a competitive free agent market none of these particular players is going to sign a deal with most of the money deferred anyways, unless it’s coming with ludicrous interest (see: Bobby Bonilla).
Who exactly is going to pitch for the phillies in there rotation? Hamels-Lee-Buch and..? They have Burnett possibly and Williams. Something tells me not even RAJ would sit back and expect no one to get hurt until Pettibone is healthy or Nola is ready.
As a surprising pick, I have the Phillies winning the Maeda sweepstakes as well as Tomas. I think Burnett stays. And even then, I think they sign another “if: Lee is not ready by opening day. If Burnett opts out, then i can see Santana signing there.
Not really a huge fan of Santana in a hitters park like CBP. I would rather have Jason Hammel on a 2 year deal then give 60M to Santana. I didn’t really read up on Maeda or know his asking price. I doubt the Phillies will shell out anything more then 40M for the guy. They haven’t had great success with giving money to if-then players.
That’s about right for the White Sox on their primary target. Remember Martinez was the primary target in the ” All In” offseason(when they acquired Adam Dunn). They’ve wanted him for a quite a while.
I hate to disagree but I don’t think there is anyway the Yankees belly up to the bar for Scherzer. I still think their primary starting pitching target is McCarthy.
A team with a 200M payroll and 2 20M+ pitchers that might not be ready for this year doesn’t really sit back and sign number 3’s. They need front liners if they are going to win. I put in Lester in my predictions. McCarthy could be a guy they sign, but not the only guy.
The Yankees pitching wasn’t a problem this year. Matter of fact, it was the reason they had a winning season. I don’t think they need a front line starter at all. What they need more than anything is offense, particularly in the infield.
Check the numbers of Yankee pitchers besides ERA. They are impressive even with only half a season of Tanaka, no Nova, no Sabathia (who was ineffective anyway), and no Pineda for about a 4 month span.
Only 3 pitchers reached 100 Innings and only 1 had a sub-4 ERA. I’m not saying they need 4 new guys, but some stability would be nice. I don’t like the idea of counting on 2-3 guys who never pitched a full MLB season and Nova/CC.
I said check the numbers beside ERA such as that they were 4th in WAR and a respectable 12th in FIP, and 4th in xFIP. And innings pitched = Managerial decision. I’ve seen managers let pitchers go 9 innings giving up 4 runs and I’ve seen managers let pitchers go 8 innings giving up Zero runs.
They don’t need a front line starter with Tanaka and Pineda. Can they stay healthy who knows but they appear to have weathered their issues from last year pretty good. Offense is their biggest question mark heading into the 2015 season that’s where I see them spending the most money,
Tanaka and Pineda are an extremely unreliable pair on which to pin their 2015 hopes.
I disagree.
You don’t think each of them represents a major health risk?
A risk, yes and “major” health risk, NO.
I think signing McCarthy mitigates the health risk to one of them should one go down. And with CC, Greene, Nova at some point. Bryan Mitchell available the Yankees have a plan B, C, D and E plus there are always opportunities to get players during the season.
I’m a big McCarthy fan, but he’s not a guy you sign as a way of mitigating health risk.
In a vacuum your right. But he was healthy this season and when you consider all the other starters on the Yankees roster and the way they performed in 2014. Spending 7 years/$175MM on Scherzer with the other more pressing needs is not an option in my opinion.
Purely speculation on my part but as I mentioned previously above I see the Yankees re-signing McCarthy and then going after Liriano as the other lefty for the rotation. Both of those guys can probably be had for what it will cost for just Scherzer.
How in the world are Tanaka and Pineda not major health risks? Tanaka could ultimately tear his UCL at any point and go down, while Pineda just missed two full seasons and I don’t believe even has 250 Major League innings under his belt from 2011-2014. Those two are about as major health risks as you get.
Tanaka has a slight tear in his UCL and Pineda has spent more time on the DL than he has on the Yankees. I think it is fair to say they cannot be relied on. And throw in the uncertainty of Greene, Sabathia, and Nova? I think the Yankees’ pitching is nothing but uncertainty. It could go either way.
Sure, but I don’t see them spending that type of money on an ace, when they already have 2, although with injury concerns.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them spend big this winter after missing playoffs 2 years, but I see them looking for hitters.
Who is their second ace? Sabathia? Pineda? Tanaka is surely an ace, but he is their only ace.
1.89 era this year seems pretty aceish from Pineda.
3.38 SIERA, 3.37 xFIP, 2.70 FIP. I don’t think Pineda should be expected to repeat a 2.4% walk rate. He debuted in 2011 and still hasn’t crossed 250 career IP. Part of being an ace is being healthy and effective for full seasons. Harvey and Jose Fernandez have done so over full seasons. Pineda was good in 2011 and hurt for two years, then hurt and suspended in ’14 but very good while pitching. I think Pineda has ace potential, but the onus is on him to pitch a full season at that level.
Oh sure, but at the same time when you have 2 potential aces like that do you really need Scherzer?
I don’t feel they need Scherzer, but I also feel that using Pineda’s ace potential to justify not signing another ace is not practical. It’s very likely Tanaka and Pineda pitch less than 300 IP next year, I’d wager.
If Tanaka was a major risk for Tommy John, I’d imagine doctors would’ve suggested he get the surgery already.
With all the TJ’s needed, it appears that all pitchers are a health risk.
Seriously? Tanaka pitched like a hurt pitcher when he came back and Pineda is a total roll of the Dice. They need at least two very good pitchers,
The Yankees’ rotation is actually not their main issue. They need help in the lineup up the middle, at third, at first (stability-wise, at least) and in rightfield. I have a hard time seeing Cashman & co. going for an ace like Scherzer at the money he’ll likely command. 175 MM is a lot, even for the Yankees. Cano last year showed the Yankees do have an actual limit.
I don’t like their rotation. They have no consistency. They had a total of 3 pitches give you 100+ innings last year. 1 of them is probably going to retire. Tanaka might need TJ, who knows, and Phelps is average at best. Pinada has too many injuries issues year in and year out. CC and Nova are wild cards. You can’t rely on Greene to give you anything close to a sub-3 like he did last year.
Right now, we don’t really know. There have been offseasons where they said they would be restrained and they were, while last winter there was a lot of $189MM talk that went out the window. I guess my bottom line is that this team hasn’t made the playoffs since 2011, they have clear needs for SPs and the left side of the infield, and there are FAs who fit those needs. But no doubt there are also more reasonable FAs who fit those needs too.
2012 for the record.
I also wouldn’t say they are in Need of SP. They already have 6 starters on the roster – Tanaka, Sabathia, Nova, Pineda, Phelps, Greene. The health and effectiveness is questionable but it doesn’t mean it can’t work out.
Tanaka, Nova and CC are all wild cards. Tanaka might need TJ, Nova isn’t a sure thing by recovering from TJ, and CC.. well who knows. Greene hasn’t pitched a full season and Phelps isn’t really that good. Pineda has a ton of heal issues.
Exactly they made the postseason in 2012 as MB923 mentioned.
Oops.
HanRam is a mediocre defender and a headcase. Not to mention his contract and is injury prone although when healthy is effective. I believe the Yankees will try and make a move for a SS via trade
Take the bat and swap him to another position if he comes cheap enough.
It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for White Sox fans—they’re all over this list.
Indeed…most of the talk about in Chicago is about the Cubs offseason. But where the payroll is now and the comments by the team…they are going to spend quite a bit.
Both Chicago teams appear to be among those with the most payroll space this winter. Certainly don’t know the exact names but I think in the end the two clubs will get a lot of the top guys.
I think they are totally off about Rasmus. He wants to play CF, while the Sox have Adam Eaton there. he’s also proven to be an undependable hitter.
I don’t think they go there.
Russell Martin to the Cubs makes perfect sense to me. Also, Sergio Romo to the Dodgers. And while I *want* the Yankees to re-sign Brandon McCarthy the prediction for Pittsburgh is a good one and seems like a good fit for both sides.
Wonder why ARam is on here, didn’t his option get exercised?
He has until Monday night to decide on his player option. If he exercises it, he’s signed by the Brewers for 2015.
Victor Martinez to the White Sox? what the
Yeah, like what?
And Rasmus too, wasn’t aware they were making a big offseason push
They want to compete and a ton of money is off the books. So yep.
I actually have them down as my prediction for Russel Martin as well.
They lost Dunn and Paulie. It makes sense.
Konerko’s actual performance – or cheap salary, for that matter – coming off the books is not a loss. He was paid 2.5 MM for a small farewell tour with CWS last year, and that’s it.
What do you mean what the? They’ve wanted him for atleast 4 years…and Paulie and Dunn are gone
Didn’t know that. I figured Wilkins and Abreu would get the 1B/DH duties
Wilkins looked pretty awful. Getting some reliable protection behind Abreu will do wonders.
Would be refreshing for the AL Central if the Sox build a solid core again
We have the core that we want to go with set up. Rick Hahn did a great job getting Abreu and Adam Eaton. I thought maybe 2016 would be the year the books get opened but it looks like they saw enough where the hope is they can fill in around those guys.
I like Eaton, underrated scrappy player
He’s great….out of the lineup a little too much at some points(injury) but other than that he’s exactly what this team needed. What I expect either via trade or free agency is bullpen help,DH/1B,OF and probably a low end starter.
He killed my Royals this year! He’s a pest…..and I mean that as a compliment!
i agree with V-Mart going to the White Sox, with Cabrera’s injury, he may be seeing DH before planned, which means 4 years is too long for the Tigers for V-Mart, but perfect to protect Abreu. Morales on a 2-3 year deal would be better for the Tigers.
I think DRob heads to Detroit, unless he shocks the Yankee world and accepts the QO
It does makes sense.
I agree, that’s a viable option for him. I shied away from them a bit because I think DRob will cost $11-13MM per year, and they’re already in for $17MM next year on Nathan and Soria. Miller could be a way to get almost as good a pitcher for $4-5MM less.
Miller might very well be better than David Robertson at this point.
I think the Nationals get DRob to replace Soriano…
Even with Clippard and Storen on board and Desmond an Zimmermann needing contracts? Maybe but I think they have bigger things coming up the pike?
Angels sign no one?
They will probably pick up 1-2 mid level starters, other then that, what do they really need?
My bet is the japanese guy and potentially mccarthy. That is ONLY if they dont land a starter for Freese or Kendrick.
I see them more active in trades. But I also think they aren’t expecting major changes.
Payroll is probably fairly tight and they don’t have many glaring holes. I’m sure they could easily sign a Neshek/Janssen/Grilli type and/or a Harang/Vogelsong type, though
They owe Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson a ton over the next number of years
I’m not sure they can afford anyone. If anything, they need to unload some payroll (I’m looking at you Josh Hamilton).
Only way you can rid yourself of Hamilton’s contract is if you take Ryan Howard, Papelbon and AJ Burnett from the Phillies for him.
I didn’t think it was possible for both teams to lose in a trade.
Angels fans might take that trade, actually.
Howard for Hamilton makes sense. Papelbon still has more value as one of the best relievers in MLB… Burnett stays if he picks up his option, Phillies need starters. Inquire again in July about him and Lee. How about Howard, Byrd and Utley for Hamilton and Kendrick?
ANGELS:
1) Calhoun (LF)
2) Utley (2B)
3) Trout (CF)
4) Pujols (1B)
5) Howard (DH)
6) Byrd (RF)
7) Freese (3B)
8) Iannetta (C)
9) Aybar (SS)
PHILLIES:
1) Revere (CF)
2) Kendrick (2B)
3) Tomas (LF)
4) Hamilton (RF)
5) Franco (1B)
6) Rollins (SS)
7) Asche (3B)
8) Ruiz (C)
Why would the Angels do that?
Byrd/Utley close to wash for hamilton/kendrick next year, but in 2016 and 2017 Hamilton will be way more productive than Howard. Nobody wants to take on Howard, even Hamilton’s contract isn’t that bad.
Makes sense, but the Phillies aren’t saving money. Hamilton is owed 89M over the next 3 years, Kendrick is owed 9.5M next year. Byrd is owed 8M, Utley is owed 13M at the least (he has options) and Howard is owed 60M.
Phillies let Freddy Galvis and Darin Ruf play 2B/RF once a week and they clear up Utley and Byrd’s option after next season. I’m not really even for Howard for Hamilton because the Phillies are adding another 29M owed.
Cards sign no one as well.
As a Brewers fan, I really hope the Cubs make all those signings. Then I get to listen to all the Cubs fan scratch their heads and wonder what went wrong after most of their staff resembles a m*a*s*h* unit. Oh and not to mention the dead payroll that these broken down fa signings will turn into for years to come
I’m not sure the Yankees are going to make two $100MM+ commitments this year in Scherzer and Ramirez. Scherzer and a more cost-effective move for SS, like trading for the younger Didi Gregorius, makes more sense.
Agreed.
I think either Alexi Ramirez or one of the young Arizona short stops will be in New York before the end of the year
As I kicked around their next SS I think Jimmy Rollins has a decent chance.
Maybe, but Ruben needs to lower his demands..they didn’t unload anybody at the deadline, and supposibly this offseason they are trying to unload Howard, Rollins, Hamels etc etc.
Rollins to the A’s would be ideal for the A’s and Rollins… what would the A’s give back though?
Please note the disclaimer in the beginning of the post. There are a share of redundant picks — I think making all 50 fit together is a fool’s errand. So, it’s not a suggestion that they will sign both Scherzer and Hanley.
Noted, I’m only speculating about Gregorius being a good fit. Nice job with the article though.
Why?
Didi is an all glove no hit shortstop. They already have one of those on their roster. I think they look for someone that can at least not be worse than 2014 Jeter with the bat.
That’s the best point one can make here. A lot of these situations have a domino effect. If say the Red Sox sign Sandoval, they won’t need Headley, and so on. I love all the speculation, in many ways the hot stove is more exciting than the season.
I think they sign Ramirez to play 3B more than sign Scherzer. Scherzer is flyball pitcher. He would not age well in Yankee stadium.
Not disagreeing with you, but I still think there’s a good chance that’s where he winds up.
As a Cubs fan, I don’t see them spending big on the bullpen. With Rondon and Strop already in place and plenty of other young power arms or converted starters that can move to the pen. I think bullpen should be solid. Especially if the rotation is upgraded the way most think it will be.
Neil Ramirez is their best reliever if they let him be..book it
I like Ramirez too. He was one of the young power arms I was referring to.
I have no idea whether they will add a top reliever. I just think most teams can be improved by adding an elite reliever, and the Cubs have a lot of money and are in “go for it” mode this winter. If they get Robertson, guys like Rondon, Strop, and Ramirez move down a level and if everyone excels, great.
That’s fair, keep up the good work.
I don’t see them moving rondon out of the closer role, even with Robertson.
East coast biased *sigh*
3 of the 5 largest payrolls this year were easy coast teams.
The Cardinals don’t even sign a reliever…?
You guys can have Romo.
I think they re-sign Neshak, if not, then someone like Gregerson or Perez
There’s no way Romo signs with the Dodgers. He saw what happened to Brian Wilson and how he went from a cult fan favorite to being boo’d and hated by everyone in San Fran.
I don’t think Brian Wilson is losing any sleep over it and neither would Romo. 20 million can do that for people and Romo’s from So Cal anyway. I hope LA stays away considering how many better options there are available at RP.
Just another guy to keep in mind for the White Sox instead of the usual suspect like Martinez is Melky Cabrera. I know you guys have them on the list for his services already but right out the gate I think that could be a guy they go ” all in” on.
Tim, your list is as good as any. The team I care about is the Padres. I don’t know if the Padres would sign LaRoche now. It’s true LaRoche fared very well last season but he is 35 years old and I can’t see the Padres spending that much money ($8-12 mil/season…probably at least three years to get him to sign in Petco) for a player his age.
Yeah, it’s not a pick I love. I was going with Brewers until the Lind news broke today, and I think that would have been the popular pick for him. I was pretty close to going with the Angels, but I don’t know how much LaRoche cares about playing 1B.
Of course the Padres are desperate for offense and might overpay for it.
LaRoche to the Mariners almost seems a lock now I think.
No, not a lock. They don’t really need another left-handed bat in their lineup. Also, the left-handed Morrison’s already at 1B. Someone who can DH most of the time and start at 1B against tough lefties, like Martinez, Cuddyer, or Butler would be a better fit in my mind.
I think Cuddyer could be a fit for the Cardinals now. They badly need a RH platoon-mate for Adams and Cuddyer could play some RF. I would expect Mozeliak to be more active in trades than free-agency, though.
I have to think the Cardinals will get an outfielder. They were looking for a bat before last Sunday night and I think they know the offense must be improved upon.
Why on Earth would Tomas, or any highly sough after free agent want to go play for the. Phillies? That team is done.
Money would be the primary reason.
That and they will convince him that the team will be built around HIM.
That 2016 FA’s will be Huge Stars and the Phillies will be right back in it by 2016 – And HE will be the start of the new Phillies.. and 105-110 Million over 7 years with a 4th-5th year opt out option seems like good reasons to me…
You cannot convince an older player that… But Tomas is just 23.
Hitting in CBP will just increase his value as his 2ND contract will be the BIG money deal for him.
Every year good players sign with bad teams.. Nolasco, Feidman, Salty, Josh Johnson, etc.
Money, and the fact that Pat Gillick is running the show now and has said that they are rebuilding towards 2017, when Tomas will be in his prime. There has quietly been a regime and philosophical change in Philly, and the hold on to the core till they can collect social security attitude is gone.
Francisco Liriano needs to stay in the NL. 5 times he has posted 5+ ERA’s, all when pitching in the American League. Batting practice in Fenway Park
I remember what he was like at the Cell…yuck
Him against the AL East teams I just shiver haha… Rather have one of the kids take that spot
I could see the Phillies picking up Tomas, Morse, Vogelsong, Masterson and Neal Cotts then trade Byrd, Bastardo, Brown and Hamels. Obviously that’s all not going to happen, but just some thoughts.
If its obviously not going to happen, then how can you see it happening?
Not ALL of it is going to happen, but some of it could.
Yes, it could.
Tomas for sure…
Then trade Hamels to either the Dodgers, Red Sox or Cubs
Byrd and Bastardo to Seattle for Elias.
If Burnett rejects the option, then i can see the Phils signing Santana. Masterson could be another they look to sign, or any other 1 year deal like Gavin Floyd, Morrow, Billingsley, or Johnson.
Phillies no doubt get a starting OF in any trade with Hamels.
I don’t see the phillies investing long term in Santana. They got some youth like Biddle, Morgon and Pettibone they need to figure some things out about, plus Nola and Buchanan are almost sure to be in the rotation by midseason.
I’m not sure the Dodgers would be willing to part with Joc + 2 others (Zach Lee and Urias?) for Hamels. I’d be happy with getting Allen Craig, Rubby De La Rosa, Allan Webster and another solid piece.
None to st. Louis????
Not even mentioned in possibilities?????
There’s not much to like after the top 10 anyway. I would expect the Cardinals to be in on a lot of big names in trades this winter.
Jhonny Peralta was the first free agent the Cardinals gave more than 50 million to in over a decade. the cardinals going after a big name is something that most analysts will have to see to believe.
Matt Holliday says “hello!”
Acquired from Oakland in 2009 then extended.
He was traded for but not extended. He went to free-agency and the popular opinion was St. Louis could not afford to bring him back.
Still not technically a free agent signing.
I don’t know what your definition of “technically” is.
in this case it’s ‘sportswriters tend not to view a team re-signing with his old team as a free agent acquisition’.
So if the A’s were to re-sign Lester in February, you’d say he was extended?
yes, personally, since he’s not going someplace new… he’s agreeing to extend his expiring contract.
It’s not expiring, it’s expired. There is nothing there to extend. Haha. Okay, I’m done now!
When a FA resigns with his current team they officially call it an extension (look back at the Jimmy Rollins press release when he signed with Philly in 2011). So by MLB’s definition Holliday was an extension, not a FA signing.
And there we have it. I lose.
Then somebody reminded him he’s never actually been a free agent, and he looked around a bit sheepishly…
But he has. He was signed to his current deal in January of 2010 as a FREE AGENT that was FREE to sign with any team he chose.
He’s never switched teams as a free agent. The Cardinals did not acquire him as a free agent. Prior to the Cardinals signing Peralta, the last big name free agent they acquired was Ron Gant.
However you want to look at it, the Cardinals are not a team pretty much anyone expects to be a player in the FA market any given year.
Not that that’s a knock on the Cardinals… obviously they make it work pretty well,
And my point is Matt Holliday was 100% a free agent and a Scott Boras client. So the Cardinals had to outbid any team to get him. They have a lot of cash to spend there’s just nothing in free agency that makes much sense for them. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them get involved in the pitching market if someone’s were to drop a little lower than expected.
him being a Boras client doesn’t automatically mean the cardinals out-bid everyone. Boras doesn’t make the final decision and Holliday could have very well told him he wanted to be back with the Cardinals, so get the best deal to stay in St. Louis. But that’s still not considered a free agent signing since he didn’t go to a new team.
I guess we’ll agree to disagree. Matt Holliday was a free agent and the Cardinals signed him but they didn’t sign a free agent. Got it.
go ahead and mark one on your imaginary internet scoreboard…
There’s no way out of the top 50, the Dodgers only get a former Giants reliever and a 4th starter.
What other spots do they need? They have Guerro, Gordon and Arrabuerna for SS and 2B, Uribe/A-Gon and a lot of outfielders. Kershaw/Grienke/Haren/Ryu for next year.
A catcher would be nice. Ellis is strictly a backup now and there is no way Friedman goes into next spring with Ned’s darlings, Butera and Federowicz on the team. I have to think that is their biggest opening and I have a hard time seeing them finishing second for Martin.
The best Catcher for the best starting rotation.. Martin will be the Dodgers top priority.
Well, if they didn’t have 230+ million committed already than it would certainly be more plausible seeing them sign some of the bigger fish.
They actually need to do some trades this year, prolly not sign free agents.
These predictions aren’t done at the team level.
Actually, I like Morrow as a reliever. Romo is not going to happen, but I would welcome Janssen if his arrival meant that Brian Wilson and Brandon League were both shown the door. I kind of think they will trade for a fourth/fifth starter rather than sign one.
Jung-ho Kang — I’m not understanding this pick at all. How does anybody pencil in a Korean import with the Orioles for the three positions they’re pretty much set at. Machado’s got 3B and a platinum glove; Hardy just signed a 3-year extension and isn’t giving up SS now; Schoop is easily a plus-defender at 2B and just turned 23. Why would the O’s sign this guy to play any of those three positions?
Machado also has two knee surgeries in two years.
yes to deal with an abnormality..
Regardless of the reason for the surgeries, they still occurred, which means it would be smart to sign another infielder.
And the abnormality was corrected.. I see them signing a bonofacio type player..
I agree – Bonafacio seems like a perfect fit for the Orioles.
Machado is hurting, and he is listed to be a utility man.
Any pick for Kang right now is just a shot in the dark. I picked the Orioles because they signed a top Korean player before and could reasonably use solid backup around the infield. I expect most teams to look at Kang as a utility guy, hence his low ranking on this list. I’m thinking like three years, $9MM.
Would the Reds make sense for Kang maybe?
Great article!
I bookmarked it.
Reds getting Aoki in the dream world…. Like they need another lefty hitting outfielder anyway…. For that matter why even consider Cincy a player for Lowrie or asdrubal pretty absurd if you ask me.
Because Negron is a career .246 hitter in the minors and Cozart has a .281 OBP in 4 seasons at the MLB level. They need a different shortstop.
I don’t disagree with that assessment they do need a new shortstop especially one that can actually hit. Getting castellini to pay for one that’s unlikely.
As a Cubs fan, i seriously hope they’re wrong about Robertson… any exec that gives 50 million dollars guaranteed to a reliever needs to fired just on principle.
You guys are right on for the top 20 in my mind. Kenta Madea is the only one I don’t quite agree with you guys on. I think Madea will go to the Cubs with the Astros and Angels having a slight chance to get him.
I think these predictions guess which teams will spend the most, but they fail to take into account the different front office philosophies of each of the teams. The Cubs, a heavily analytical team (who, hint hint, use pitch f(x) data), seem more likely to sign Scherzer than anyone else. If anyone else, I’d imagine it’s the Red Sox, not the Yankees.
The Sox will need pitching
Scherzer would cost a draft pick. And about the only thing Theo Epstein seems to love more than sabermetrics is draft picks. Plus Lester’s the known quantity for most of that FO.
Isn’t the Cubs pick protected?
I just think Lester is a bit overvalued at this point. I know this is a new concept for a lot of people, but I think Lester has been aided by having stellar pitch framing this season. His SwStr% and velocity haven’t actually improved relative to the league.
I’d think Scherzer would be plan B for the Cubs, since you’ll certainly never hear me saying he’s not every bit as good as Lester. But again, Free agency is always playing with fire, and if the Cubs are gonna gamble 150 million, i just see them being more likely to bet it on the player they’re familiar with.
I think he is much better than Lester, and I’m inclined to believe that the Cubs agree with me.
Only argument I have is the Cubs 1st round pick is protected.
I don’t think they mind giving up a second rounder for Scherzer.
Scherzer isn’t a stathead signing. He’s a signing based on which team ownership group wants him the most.
But to the point that the Cubs are a reasonable pick for Scherzer, sure. Definitely. I have a little harder time seeing the Red Sox go to seven years for a starting pitcher, but it wouldn’t shock me if they sign him since they do have money and the need.
Maybe not, but I think “stathead” teams will find Scherzer more valuable relative to the other pitchers than other teams, who only consider him slightly better than Lester/Shields.
Look further (beyond FIP/xFIP), and he is way ahead of Lester and Shields. I’m not sure the Yankees see that. The Red Sox and Cubs? They do, as evidence by the recent Uehara signing (SwStr% anyone?).
Also, I apologize if I came off as snobbish in my comment. This list is great as usual, and we all appreciate that you guys essentially volunteer to do this.
Knowing Beane and the A’s Drew will probably end up there. Beane will also sign a low level type of starter. The big surprise will be them sign a outfielder with pop. Hunter or Cuddyer comes to mind. Last year they took a shot at Cruz so don’t be surprised.
I think Hunter would be a likely signing. Beane can get him on a one-year deal.
Romo to the Dodgers? in case you missed it, Ned is no longer the guy in charge. I wouldn’t mind McCarthy and Miller as our FA pitcher pick-ups & I also think we will be one of the finalists for Russell Martin.
And on Morrow, if the Dodgers are going to take a shot on an injured SP I’d rather try to re-sign Bills than count on Morrow
Why can’t Friedman sign Romo?
He could but after what happened w/ Wilson I doubt they want to go down that road again
Wilson was different… he was coming off of a surgery. Romo isn’t.
I don’t see the Giants being in on quite as many free agents as the writer suggests. A lot of depends on what ultimately happens to Pablo Sandoval. If the Giants do resign him (and as they don’t have any good alternatives to him at 3B), I don’t see them having the budget to do much beyond that……the ownership group isn’t likely to free up more funds beyond that.
Part of it depends on whether or not they bring back Jake Peavy (unless I’m mistaken, his player option didn’t kick in, so he’s now a free agent). Going into 2015, the rotation is Bumgarner, Cain (who should be back from elbow and foot surgery), and Hudson (who still has one more year on his deal). Beyond that, they could bring back Peavy, they can put Petit in the starting rotation, they can resign Vogelsong, and/or they still have Lincecum (who is but a shadow of his former self). I don’t see Sabean going after a free agent from the outside, especially with the budget he is being given.
Left field would be the Giants’ other issue. I don’t see them bringing back Morse.
He isn’t suggesting they sign everyone they mention, but whats in best interest and makes the most sense for each individual player. As good as Petit was in the playoffs, counting on him to make 32 starts would be foolish.
your point is well taken. i’m just not certain considering how the Giants do things that they would go after another FA starting pitcher.
Losing Vogelsong and Peavy, lost hope for Lincecum, and Cain is a wildcard might force them to act on something.
Petit is not a starter. At all.
Would like to see my Angels pursue: Santana, Headly, Miller.
Oh and resign Grilli
Be aware of their fear of the luxury tax. That’s near 35M added to payroll AAV. Maybe Santana is possible considering they went for Garza last year.
I dont think Santana or the Angels have much interest in a reunion.
When was the last time there was a trio of free agent starting pitchers as good as this year’s top 3?
2012 has Pujols, Darvish, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes.
Only darvish is a pitcher, hes talking about a the top 3 being pitchers.
Oh, then I doubt their has ever been a top 3 that good.
Never since this website’s been around, which is nine years.
Tim…any way at all of entering without a Facebook account?
Closed mine down years ago.
E-Mail?
Unfortunately no. Maybe if we are to build something next year, though.
and 2016 will make this year look silly:
Price / Cueto / Zimmermann / Latos / Kennedy / Fister / Porcello
Iwakuma / Gallardo / Samardzija / Lincecum / Medlen / Norris / Chen
Leake and so on… all between 27-32 years old by then.
Then add on the Outfielders like Upton / Heyward / Cespedes
Jackson – all 26-30 years old by then.
Throw in 30 year old (C) Matt Weiters & 30 yrold (SS) Ian Desmond.
Go Cubs! We’ve got the pen and the checkbook!
No signings for the cardinals, I doubt that is accurate, they have money to spend and need to augment their bullpen. They also need a right fielder but I don’t see one worth signing, except maybe cuddyer
Pesicotty, Bourjos and Grichuk could all split time with a mid-tier free agent. (John Mayberry Jr?) if he gets non-tendered.
Grichuk, Pescotty, Pham seem all ready for competing it out for RF.
Bourjos will back-up Jay. They don’t need any more Outfielders.
If they lose Neshek, Then they sign a reliever. Other than that, what else do they need?? They can Trade for Hamels & Bastardo and then be absolutely Nasty…. (For Piscotty/Miller and Martinez + 1 more)
i think most people have a ‘i’ll believe it when i see it’ attitude towards the Cardinals signing a big ticket free agent. That’s just not really their MO.
They blew everyone out of the water for peralta
Good Stuff Tim,
I do find it highly unlikely that the Tigers will let VMART, Scherzer, and Hunter go and get ZERO top fifty free agents to fill any of those voids.
Perhaps just one of those teams that you think will be close 2nds on several players.
I doubt the Mets sign Astrubal Cabera when they can get a similar offensive player and better defender (Stephen Drew) for little money and a one-year commitment. With that said, I tend to agree that the Mets will probably do little else besides get a SS.
Also, has anyone realized that Josh Willingham hasn’t retired yet? He still has serious power and on-base ability, and should be interesting for teams like the Mets looking to add a right-handed bat to play first base and get some occasional time in the OF.
i think most people thought he retired years ago…
Willingham to the Reds seems more likely. Ludwick to Mets?
I don’t think the Mets would like Ludwick considering he’s a worse hitter against lefties (107 wRC+) than he is against righties (112 wRC+). The main purpose of a Ludwick/Willingham signing for the Mets would be to get a bat to platoon with Duda at first, while also DH’ing in AL ballparks and occasionally playing OF. To fill that role, you have to be a better hitter against lefties than Ludwick.
Willingham does have power, but his injuries have definitely held him back even when he is on the field the last 2 years!!
I think the Angels would have more interest in Maeda, Liriano, Peavy or McCarthy than Sandoval, Martinez and Ramirez.
Tigers sign Miller and nobody else? With all the holes to fill? I find that unlikely.
They could get their outfielders through trading. Other then that, what holes?
they also may be intending to use the money not given to Scherzer to extend Price, or make a serious attempt to.
I am thinking they get ONE out of VMART, Tomas and Panda.
Why would the Mets sign a Wilmer Flores clone to big money to replace Wilmer Flores who makes less money?
Wilmer Flores is a career negative WAR defensively, Cabrera is at least a proven 10-20 HR guy. Flores never hit more than 18 HR in the minors and is a horrible defender.
He’s not horrible in actuality; just reputation. He played fine in the field this year after coming back from fat camp. His career stats with the stick are a very small sample size due to the team not allowing him to play. when he got consistant reps, he started to touch his minor league production.
Cabrera is a 15 homer guy, with 60 RBI pop and bad defense. Flores went 18/75 .300 in AAA last year and he looks like at least a 15/60/.280 sort of bat.
Why pay 28 year old Cabrera 10M a year when you have 22 year old Flores making league minimum. How much more production can you get out of Cabrera to make that worth it?
The money should be spent in the outfield.
On Fangraphs – Steamer Projections for 2015 based on 600 PA is 16 HR / 66 RBI / .255 with a 2.5 WAR
He’s not horrible in actuality; just reputation. He played fine in the field this year after coming back from fat camp. His career stats with the stick are a very small sample size due to the team not allowing him to play. when he got consistant reps, he started to touch his minor league production.
Cabrera is a 15 homer guy, with 60 RBI pop and bad defense. Flores went 18/75 .300 in AAA last year and he looks like at least a 15/60/.280 sort of bat.
Why pay 28 year old Cabrera 10M a year when you have 22 year old Flores making league minimum. How much more production can you get out of Cabrera to make that worth it?
The money should be spent in the outfield.
Except Flores has a career 4.0 UZR at Shortstop. UZR is better than Defensive Runs Saved, which is what Baseball Reference WAR uses.
A couple of thoughts on the top 16:
1. Lester’s resume seems equal or maybe even better than Scherzer when you factor in playoffs. And he is left handed which likely improves his pitching lifespan by an extra year or two. And he does not have the QO baggage attached.
Why would Scherzer get a better contract?
2. Seems like Cruz’s expected contract exceeds VMARTs. However VMART is ranked higher. They are similar ages (VMART is just a year older). Why?
3. In terms of fWAR Headley is a better player than Panda. And he will not have a QO. I understand that Panda is an unbelievable playoff performer. But how much should a team value those 71 at bats v. the 550+ at bats (and defense) during the regular season.
I would have expected the two to be a lot closer than Panda at 5 and Headley at 16.
it’s widely believed that Lester isn’t looking just for the biggest pay-out where as Scherzer’s said several times he’s looking for a big pay day. It’s also widely believed Lester will sign first and that would drive up Scherzer’s price.
I just checked the “Trailing 3 year” cumulative fWAR for those two as well as Price:
1. Scherzer: 16.5
2. Price: 15.2
3. Lester: 11.0
Price is a year younger than the other two. Seems like the Tigers should really try to sign Price now while they still have some leverage.
All I can think of is to stammer, but, but Scherzer is better than Lester, everyone knows that. An then I looked at their numbers and you have a very good point. I think it could go either way as to who is the better pitcher.
Lester doesn’t have the QO baggage because he was traded midseason this year. Teams cannot give a QO to a player they acquired in midseason.
Scherzer’s peripherals are a bit better than Lester’s, suggesting he may be the better option overall. Plus, as petrie says, Lester may not be looking for simply the best offer obtained… where Scherzer has already turned down the sort of deal Lester is most likely to get.
VMart, when healthy, is superior to Cruz. Cruz has had a couple of big seasons here and there, but overall is not really in the same category as a hitter. Plus, most expect Cruz to decline back to his normal perfomance levels after the best season of his career this year. The only real edge that Cruz has over VMart is his ability to play in the corner OF spots… and he’s had a bit less injury history in recent years.
1. Lester should get a boost of at least $7MM+ (depending on the team) just because of no QO.
2. I am not sure where we think Lester will take less. He may have been willing to take less from the RS a year ago. But the fact that they could not get to a deal likely means he is now in direct competition with Scherzer for the best deal.
3. So why will VMART only get $60MM (estimated) and Cruz $72MM+?
no trade for cardinals?
Royals only sign AJ Burnett? They have 25 million off the books, but suddenly they just decide they wanna be mediocre again!? Royals are going to sign a big name!
You have to look at the long-term. The guys they have aren’t going to stay at their salaries forever. They have to bear in mind arbitration and extension costs as well. If they lock up a guy for $15M+/year, they may not have the money to keep their core together.
I’ve already thought about all that, Game Seven was the second highest rated baseball game on TV in ten years. They made alot of money in the postseason! That money alone could pay for their arbitration increase, let alone freeing themselves from contracts. AJ Burnett will not be a Royal, I can tell you that much!
I’d imagine they go after a guy like McCarthy or Santana… maybe a lefty like Liriano. I doubt they go after Burnett, in fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if A.J. retires, he thought about it last year.
They’ll go after someone, but I don’t see any of the top 10 guys in a Royals uni next year.
The thing nobody is talking about is how much money Royals had on bad contracts, Shields isn’t worth 13.5mil and Butler isn’t worth 12, they are off the books. Surely, they are going to sign someone of significance. They could bring Ervin Santana back or Liriano, maybe, if they can’t get a bigger name. It’s not 2011-2013, anymore.
I strongly doubt they sign a guy like Scherzer… no way they can afford him in the long-term… at all.
But I doubt that suits your ears, so I’ll leave it there for you when you’re ready to hear it.
There is a lot of information lacking before we can see how much payroll space the Royals have. Unfortunately we don’t have our arb projections back for the team yet, that helps a lot.
I would think the Royals would replace Aoki and Butler via FA. (Cuddyer?)
Santana / Hammel or Masterson as a SP.
So the St. Louis Cardinals won’t sign anybody nor be interested in any of them either?
There is just an anti-Missouri bias on this site! Royals are only signing AJ Burnett, lol.
What immediate needs would they serve to fill? They have 4 outfielders perfectly capable of platooning, they have a rotation that serves them well, they have good relievers and don’t have any holes in the infield.
The main move I could see them doing is re-signing Neshek. Other than that, not a lot of reason for activity.
Ridiculous….
Robertson will resign with the Yankees almost positively
Grili is not now nor will be on the Yankees Radar
Headley will most likely be resigned by the Yankees due to Arod’s age
Yankees will most likely be in on Ramirez but will not pay him what he will command…Expect them to sign either Lowrie or Cabrera for short at a lower payday
Kuroda will retire after he plays for a team in Japan…
McCarthy will most likely be retained by New York
I’d love for the Astros to sign Maeda! I also think McCarthy, Santana, Masterson, and Cashner (trade) would be great fits as well.
I heard in an article that Maeda wants to go to either the Red Sox or the Yankees that’s if Maeda gets posted tho.
I heard that too, but if the price is right I don’t see why he wouldn’t sign with the Stros
While I appreciate the impossibility to predict a high percentage of destinations, the Ex-Braves pitchers to the Giants don’t make a lot of sense to me. First, the Giants like to sign their own guys. Second, they have Petit/Lincecum/Hudson under contract with Bumgarner and Cain. Vogelsong makes sense, but not Santana or Harang. The one guy I could see going to the Giants IF and only IF Pablo Sandoval takes his talents elsewhere is Andrew Miller. But there hasn’t been a lot of movement the past few years (except for Coletti gobbling up Uribe and Wilson so maybe your Romo prediction might still stick because his family is all Dodger fans and they need to rebuild their pen).
With so few blue chip guys (even Hanley Ramirez has serious injury/attitude issues at #4), I see a lot of teams playing wait and see hardball this year. FA season gets to be more and more full of compromises as teams lock up all their young talent early. It also makes predictions harder and harder. Great summary, love MLBTR for all the info that’s put out there.
Petit is not a starter. He’s a great long reliever, but he’s not a starter.
He almost pitched a perfect game as a starter last year…
He stunk as a starter this year. ERA of over 5.
He was serviceable down the stretch if my memory is correct.
I just don’t see Bochy using him as a regular in the rotation. He could certainly serve as an injury replacement… But I don’t see him as a rotation guy.
I agree I think they need to add some depth so they don’t have to be forced to rely on him throughout the season. I also believe that he could potentially force their hand if he performs well in Spring Training and have a job to start the season.
Obviously, if he proves that to be the case, yeah, consider it… I just don’t see it. Again, his role is best as a long-reliever and as a spot starter when needed, but I can’t see him as a mainstay in the rotation.
I used to think that too. Saw him get shelled in ST 2013 by the Royals AAA team… But they have worked with him and made adjustments. If they can keep him as a long man that’s great but they might have to get a little greedy and see what he can do.
The Giants don’t seem to have a lot of depth at starter, Cain is coming off surgery and has not been efficient for quite a while while TL has been a roller coaster ride for the past few years and Vogelsong is up there in age and with Peavy leaving that leaves them with only about 2 of their spots filled up, I think they really need to add some depth to their rotation.
I’d go with history here. They had the same thing leveled at them last year. They signed Hudson, re-signed Lincecum, re-signed Vogelsong and called it a day, 5 guys for 5 spots with Petit a AAA afterthought and Mike Kickham as the closest arm in the system. They’ll have Crick, Blackburn from the RHP and Blach, Mejia from the LHP one step closer. Its not perfect, but they have enough, like with Escobar/Hembree, to go get another Jake Peavy type if they need to.
Even if they resign Vogelsong I still think a mid tier arm like Santana, Volquez, Liriano, Masterson, Hammel is not out of the question because if we have learned anything from watching them over the years it’s that TL cannot be trusted to hold down a rotation spot all year long and do so effectively. So I think one of those arms could work nicely for the Giants.
I think Masterson is a much more interesting option than Santana or Harang. He has an even year/odd year thing that might appeal to the Giants as well. If he and his agent are going the rebuilding route, the NL West parks also appeal. Plus he’s pretty young. The Giants have kicked tires on Hammel at a couple points. Don’t think they’re going back to the well with Liriano, injury risk and most likely QO penalty. But Masterson – that’s an interesting thought. That might be Vogelsong’s competition.
Yeah, but there are a dozen teams that find Masterson interesting.
This might be a stretch but could the Royals go after V-Mart? After declining Butlers option they could potentially be in the market for a DH or are they more likely to have their current players rotate in and out of the DH spot as needed?
I think it’s possible, but I think it would be more likely that they go after a cheaper guy like a Morse or Cuddyer
The main reason why I thought V-Mart could be a fit in KC was because they were willing to bid pretty high on a guy like Beltran and I figured they might do the same for V-Mart if it gives them a better chance at winning as he kind of fits the same mold (Up there in age but still coming off a productive season).
Butler is returning to the Royals for 6-8mil over 2-3 years, that gives them an extra 19mil to keep their payroll where it was, they could sign Markakis. I still think Scherzer to KC or STL is likely. Rotating the DH wouldn’t work because they need a backup for Hosmer.
Scherzer to KC? No way. The Royals won’t have $25M per year for the next 5-7 years to keep Scherzer.
He’s from Missouri, they don’t have to pay him 25M, it would be less, for more than 5 years. Butler would have to depart for the Mariners or somewhere, then they would really have the money for Max.
He turned down 6/144… that’s $24M/year… no one’s getting him for less than $25M/year.
He’s not all about money, he would have taken the DET money if he only cared about money. I bet he signs in Missouri for less than 25M, and he will finish his career there. If not, it’s because the Yankees offered him 28mil for four years or something.
So what are you saying it will take for “Missouri” to sign him?
You are right it was not about the money it was about the number of years. He wanted an 8 year deal. He will get at least 7 years and Boros will also want an opt out clause after 3-4 years.
Kansas City or St.Louis will give him seven years, with an opt out clause in 2018, or 2019.
I think his contract will be something along the lines of 6/160 with a vesting option to push it to 7/180 or him signing a straight out 7/180 or something along those lines with an opt out clause after the third year.
Either way, no matter what he makes, the Royals can’t afford him.
I agree I doubt he takes a discount on his first major payday, but who knows maybe this was a wake up call to the KC owner and he will suddenly open his pockets in order to try to get them a WS title.
They were 90 feet from a WS title… it’s not like he has to give a guy $20M+/year to make a splash… could a guy like McCarthy or Liriano give them the depth they need? Besides, I’m 100% convinced they don’t have the money… at all.
I think the most likely scenario is them making a run at resigning shields and then add an outfielder like Markakis plus a DH like Laroche or V-Mart
Oh, I think that’s perfectly reasonable. I don’t know if Detroit lets VMart go, but Markakis is certainly an option. But they won’t get a guy who’ll make more than $15M/yr.
If they don’t resign Shields I could see them exploring trades for Cashner, Cueto, Or for someone who actually has big game experience because their pitching staff is lacking guys with actual lengthy experience in the playoffs.
He turned down the 6/144 because he wanted 8 years. Whoever signs him is will need to offer at least 7years at 24mill . He stated the dollars were not the issue but the number of years .Boros will also demand an opt out clause after 3-4 years.
Doesn’t Burnett have a preference to stay on the East Coast because his family is in Maryland? If the thinking is that he’s not going to get $12.75million as a FA, I’m not sure why he’d leave Philly.
Burnett’s Maryland thing has come up a lot on the site over the years. But in terms of the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Nationals, and Mets, I’m not sure I see a fit there unless he comes dirt cheap like $4-5MM. The other teams not covered in his 20-team NTC with the Phillies were the Reds, Royals, Pirates, and Cards. So I picked the Royals because they probably do need a SP. Certainly the Royals could go bigger with that.
If Burnett picks up the option on Monday, then maybe geography really is all that matters. If he turns it down, maybe he stretches the geography a bit outside of those five east coast teams, or maybe he waits until spring training to see if one of them has a rotation injury, and otherwise retires.
I guess I just don’t understand the logic. If we know he has expressed a preference for the East Coast, and we think he won’t get more money elsewhere, shouldn’t that equal him picking up his option (assuming he doesn’t retire)?
Phillies beat writer Ryan Lawrence thinks he probably turns it down, since he’s made a lot of money in his career and continuing in 2015 would be about playing for a contender.
That would very much surprise me. You’d think if he was really about winning he would have stayed in Pittsburgh. We shall seen soon!
IF this list ends up being more than half correct I will give Tim credit. That said, I think he’ll be lucky to hit on 20 of these. Just the unpredictability of the free agent market. The only way the Tigers let Martinez go to Chicago is if they get really stupid with their contract offer and Dombrowski can’t bring himself to save them. Could happen, but not likely so the odds are Martinez stays with the Tigers. As far as Miller, would love to see him back in a Tiger uniform, just don’t think it will happen. Guess we’ll see
Martinez will sign with a team he feels will have the best chance to get him a World Series ring within the next 4 years. I don’t see Chicago being that team. Tigers are in the drivers seat, but if they want him they need to go 4 years. Baltimore, Seattle, and K.C. could be winners also.
I think I could get 15 right at most. But there’s a solid chance V-Mart leaves Detroit. Have to put it around 50/50.
Four year deal for Chase Headley with the Red Sox?
Quite possibly but that all depends on whether or not Panda resigns with the Giants or not because I expect the Red Sox to make a big push for him and make him their priority at 3B, I view Headley as a fallback option for them in a sense but of course the Yankees could always bring him back and bid for his services. In a sense Headley could be the best fit for the Red Sox just because they wouldn’t have to give up anything for him.
I would imagine the Yankees would give him a year or two deal.
Headley > Panda
How do you suppose that?
Headley cumulative fWAR last 3 years: 15.2. Panda’s was only 7.9.
MLBTR’s predictions are almost universally wrong, but I like the Brandon Morrow and Casey Janssen picks on the Dodgers because under Ned Coletti buying low has virtually never happened during about 8 years. Curious about Friedman.
They need to trade for Kevin Jepsen so their 7-8-9 guys are Jepsen, Jansen, Janssen.
You’re not a Red Sox fan I see. Those three signings would be disastrous for the club- especially Shields (just look at his record at Fenway). If they can’t sign Sandoval or Lester, then they should be looking for trade partners to upgrade at SP1 (Hamels, Latos) and 3B. Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy the only other SPs to target, but they could go looking for lower levels starters through trade (e.g. Cashner, Miley). They have the pieces, no need to go for middling pieces in FA
I’m not a big fan of ballpark stats as I am stats versus teams. Is James Shields’ stat line in Fenway a result of the ball park or a result of a team just having his number? I don’t know what the case is, but I’d imagine if it’s just a fact of a team having his number, if he joins that team, does it negate that stat?
Why do you guys keep trying to get me join facebook?
fWAR last 3 years:
Scherzer: 16.5
Price: 15.2
Lester: 11.0
Tigers should try to give Price the contract that Scherzer rejected last offseason. That should be their first focus. He is a year younger, can go deeper in games and is a lefty, which means his pitching lifespan is likely 1-2 years more.
“He is a year younger, can go deeper in games and is a lefty” So why would he take less than Max would? Price is primed for a massive contract next year.
Price made $14mill in 2014. If Detroit offers the 144/6yrs deal to Price it gives him $24mill this year instead of the projected $18-20 mill of his last arb year. They sweeten the pot in 2015 to get him signed for 6 total years. I would even go 168/7yrs.
A little over what Tanaka got? I don’t see it. Price isn’t your normal Cy Young award winner, lefty, 6 foot 6, pinpoint control and hitting free agency after 29 season. Price’s agent shouldn’t let him take that deal.
Price will be 31 in his FA year (2016). A 168/7 deal pays him $18mill in 2015 and $25 mill for next 6 years. He gets security thru age 36 at top end $$$s. Give him an opt out clause after 4 years if he wants it
Price is NOT a free agent, that is why.
Not everyone want every last dollar and is willing to take the risk to get it.
If Price has a down year, he will lose 10s of millions by waiting a year.
If he gets injured, it could be $100MM+.
Hmm….the Giants are signing Harang,Santana, and keeping Vogey? They already have Bumgarner, Hudson, and Cain….and either Lincecum or Petit will be starter number 5 with the other serving as the long man and depth. They need a number 3 starter and Santana is the closest to that. Pablo is a must and Morse is a great locker room presence and well liked. His defense really wasn’t as bad as people say……only reason he didn’t start out there in the series is that he was coming off injury and a long layoff.
I’m disappointed with the projected signings for the Mariners. It is well known that they want a couple of good bats and likely a #3 type veteran starter. They have money to spend due to increased attendance in 2014 and a sudden willingness to compete, and have publicly stated that their payroll will go up. I like them for Victor Martinez. I like the McClendon connection, and if the Tigers don’t keep him I think the M’s will try to get a best bat again this winter.
VMART is a fit. I think it might happen.
Mariners are a good pick for V-Mart, no doubt.
OK, I get the Lester, Masterson, and Peavy connections to the Cubs. However, they will not attempt to sign all three. They already have Jake (from State Farm) Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. On top of this, they have Travis Wood, Felix Doubront, Jacob Turner, Eric Jokisch, Dallas Beeler, and possibly Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm all competing for spot in the rotation. All of which would allow a team that has claimed to be fairly strapped for cash a ton of money over one of the three arms you guys predict they will sign here. If Wood somehow returns to his 2012-2013 (and even 2010) form, he will put up just as strong of numbers as Masterston or Peavy… at less than half the cost.
Also, predicting a high-cost RP to be signed by the Cubs at this point in time is kind of ridiculous. Why would they pay David Robertson $15M+ annually, when they can pay Hector Rondon (who was just as strong as Robertson during his first stint as a closer) $500K (give or take)? Why sign Robertson to join a bullpen which was amongst the best in the NL once they jettisoned Veras? A pen that already includes previously mentioned Rondon, Ramirez, and Grimm… but also Pedro Strop and Wesley Wright for certain… and could also feature a 100% Arodys Vizcaino. What makes this prediction even more baffling is the fact that Jed Hoyer has already stated that the team is only interested in adding another southpaw to his pen. Last I checked, Robertson was a right-hander. Seriously, Robertson is probably going to re-sign with the Yankees… and get paid more money next season than the entire Cubs’ bullpen… and most likely won’t do much better than what the Cubs already have.
I would like to see the Cubs sign Martin, but I somewhat expect the Pirates to keep hold of him. I like Martin for the possibility of both his on-field production but also as a potential mentor to Beef Castillo, Victor Caratini, and Kyle Schwarber.
Personally, I would prefer the Cubs to sign Lester, Martin, either Nori Aoki or Nick Markakis on reasonable short-term deals, and either Ervin Santana or Francisco Liriano.
Post includes a disclaimer about how the picks were not made at the team level.
Certainly the Cubs might not want to spend their money on Robertson. But your point seems to be that no team with a good bullpen would consider the #1 reliever, and I disagree with that.
If you’re the teams involved do you think a Cashner for Starlin Castro deal works?
Do you think Chicago would want Castro or a prospect for Cashner?
San Diego, not Chicago.
Well, if it’s Bryant for Cashner then sign me up!
Why would the Cubs want to pay the Padres to get back a guy they didn’t want to begin with due to his arm issues? You’re looking at far too high of a price from the Cubs for Cashner… especially when they just have to wait a couple of years to sign him without giving up any talent.
If Cashner makes every start from April to June next season I think the Cubs may be interested in such a deal. They could play Russell at SS.
I don’t. Cashner would have to make every start next season for the Cubs to want to trade for him. Keep in mind, the negotiations between the Phillies and the Cubs fell apart this August when the Phils asked for one of the Cubs’ young short stops. If Cole Hamels isn’t thought of as good enough to trade either Castro, Baez, or Russell…. what makes you think the guy they got rid of is?
By the way, the Cubs will have their top two pitching prospects in AAA next season. One of which (CJ Edwards) is believed to be far superior of a product than Cashner is… and stated as such by the same people who helped developed Cashner.
So, again, why would the Cubs spend talent to pick up a guy they didn’t want in 2012… when they have better options on the way up AND can simply spend cash to acquire far superior options on the open market?
Getting a little carried away there. CJ Edwards hasn’t pitched an inning of major league ball yet. Far superior?
I look forward to this each year to see whom the Nationals might go after. They are not predicted to sign any of the top 50 this time, and I guess I am fine with that. Any time your team is considered to have underachieved because they did not win the championship, you know your team is really talented. I am disappointed; don’t get me wrong. The Nats will have to make some changes, but I imagine they will come from surprise trades as for Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister. I hope Mike Rizzo has another one of those up his sleeve this winter.
So the Cubs are going to sign 6 of the top 50?
Yeah just like Cano, Pujols and a bunch of other free agents were pegged to be chased heavily by the Cubs over the years. The offseason is unpredictable and anything can happen 🙂
Check out the disclaimer…
I’m not sure about the Dodgers predictions. Don’t see us getting Romo, been there and done that with Wilson. They are better off re-signing Bills than Brandon Morrow. Janssen isn’t a bad choice, but I’m sure they will be after every reliever they can get.
I could see them going after Maeda if he is posted. I think Asdrubal Carbrea would be a nice option at short. Just don’t have much faith in their Cuban options. I would love to see them upgrade at catcher but I think Martin will be too expensive. Anything else will be done by trades.
What does Romo have to do with Wilson, other than being a former Giant?
Wilson had injury issues that likely led to his struggles. That’s not to say Romo won’t stink… but I’m not seeing the connection here.
I agree. Resign Bills to fill the Jamey Wright role. Leave the Giants guys alone. Sign Hochevar and solid starting pitcher. Let Hanley walk.
Billingsley is hardly even guaranteed to play the game again. He gets a minor league contract somewhere.
I wouldn’t give some huge guaranteed contract. One year; low base salary with performance-based and innings pitched incentives.
I doubt he gets that much from anyone, but we will see. It would be nice to see him back but after two surgeries in two years he’s going to need a lot of rehab time if he’s ever going to pitch in the majors again.
In fact they should go after Kenta hard if he’s posted and take look at Kwang-hyun Kim from Korea.
Boston signs:
Lester 6/150
Headley 3/40
Liriano 3/45
I’ll take Headley if they can’t sign Sandoval.
So MLB rumors predicts the Buccos will be one of the major losers this off-season?
By the way, AJ choosing the Royals over the Pirates? Did his wife suddenly overcome her fear of flying?
Discussed Burnett above. I’m open-minded if you’ve got a good East Coast pick for him. I don’t think the Pirates will make a play, but I guess it’s possible.
Does anyone see a Moustakas- Middlebrooks swap?
Both were very hyped top 3rd base prospects. Both are under preforming haven’t lived up to the hype. I think a change in scenery would be great for both players.
Interesting, and I can see where it would be a decent swap in terms of the overall numbers. However, I doubt the Royals would be very inclined to do much in terms of messing up the clubhouse vibe and chemistry… and Moose is thought of as one of their leaders in that regard.
Middlebrooks underperformed much, much more than Moustakas. He’s basically worthless. No way KC does that.
Middlebrooks was rattled with injuries this year. Despite the horrific 2014, Middlebrooks, has shown more potential
Fangraphs projections
Moustakas .248/.306/.413 19hrs
Middlebrooks .248/.297/.422 15hrs
Safe to same both players are pretty much identical. Maybe a change in scenary could help them both?
Boston needs a left handed bat and the Royals have been ‘listening to offers’ on Mouse
So we’re going to spend a fortune on a starter when we don’t need one and sign no SS? I’d much rather spread Scherzer’s money around to McCarthy, Hanley/Headley, Asdrubal and Robertson and still have some left over.
yup
So let’s say Scherzer will make $27MM in 2015.
By comparison, McCarthy (13) + Hanley (21) + Asdrubal (9) + Robertson (12) = $55MM added in 2015 salary. You can tweak the estimates a bit, or go with Headley instead of Hanley and maybe get down to $45MM added. But you can’t spread a $27MM salary around to four players unless they are, on average, making $6.75MM apiece.
I think Joe is referring to TOTAL contract value. Many of the top players have horrible (for the team) back ends of their contracts. I like Joe’s idea.
Can anyone see a Moustakas-Middlebrooks swap?
Both are/were very hyped top prospects that haven’t lived up to their expections. I think a change in scenary could greatly benefit both players and organizations..
Royals aren’t making that trade after his post season. Besides KC has his replacement in the minors anyways.
I don’t want the Giants to lose anyone except maybe Vogelsong who is probably ready for retirement anyways. I especially don’t want to see Room go to the Dodgers.
I wonder where Koji would have been on this list if he hadn’t already signed that ridiculous contract.
It wasn’t a ridiculous contract. Koji is one of the elite closers in the game. He probably would gave gotten a 2/25 contract on the open market
No offense, but elite closers don’t lose their job in September. Mujica had the last five saves the Red Sox got.
He probably would of landed anywhere in between #15-#20
What. Mariners sign Butler and Cuddyer? The Mariners have said they’re going after a big hitter to hit behind Cano who can hit the ball out of the yard.
Butler hasn’t been a 20 HR+ guy since 2012, and an againg Cuddyer could be of concern with injury and regular playing time.
Mariners should be the ones to sign V-Mart and Yasmany Tomas.
If their looking for a big hitter and are willing to spend money I could see them going after Nelson Cruz and Tomas to help solidify their lineup.
Interesting that Kendrys Morales doesn’t crack the top 50.
He was #51.
Thanks–both informational and an excellent example of dry wit.
I believe at least 7 players tied for 51st place. Correct?
No, I ranked a few past #50. I think Kyle Kendrick and Colby Lewis were in there.
Saw Chamberlain as well… I assume that the order you listed “honorable mentions” is your ranking.
Cabrera to the Mets makes absolutely no sense. They’re better off with Flores. If they’re not confident in Flores being the SS, the trade market is their best route. They need to sit out from the FA market.
I just think that this is wrong with the Mets. Sandy has hinted that they are more than likely getting their OF by free agency and fill SS by trade or internal options.
Really don’t think the Rangers will sign both Hunter and Morse considering they are both not good in the field and primarily DH’s and signing both of them will probably cost 16 or 17 mil which will pretty much give them no money for the main need of a MORP. I could see them signing one of them just definitely not both.
Check out the disclaimer in the post
So my cardinals will not sign anyone??????????????
What need would have to fill? Even in right field, they have options. They will likely try to re-sign Neshek. Maybe another reliever and some depth off the bench… but I’m not sure what else they need.
shocked they have the Cards being so quiet. Think a RF will be an option now because of the tragic death of Oscar Tavares. Grichuk is a nice 4th OF but shouldn’t be starting. Also feel Cards may be in the hunt for a bullpen arm like Joba Chamberlain. Also feel Cards may trade one of their starting pitchers (mainly due to their depth there) and get some bench help.
Joba’s not on the list. There are a lot of relievers outside of those on this list.
What RF would they get through FA? Cuddyer’s a pretty rough fit as a regular in the field.
I guess Markakis or Rios could fit.
That’s the only thing. I don’t know where they’d go with RF. That’s where I think a trade may come into play or Mark Reynolds as a corner IF/OF platoon guy…but I know he’s not on that list either. Not questioning any of your selections (the only one I would is Robertson…I think the Cubs are happy with Hector Rondon as closer).
Projecting the Mariners to end up with Butler is really bumming me out. Don’t they know how to sign a non DH type?
You have 3 starting pitching going to the Giants when they may not need any. They Have Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Petit, and Lincecum. That’s 5 by my count. Now, they could decide to move Lincecum or Petit to the pen, but they won’t move them both. With the way Petit pitched while in the rotation last year, I would think Lincecum would be the one to go, but who knows. Either way, they may only need 1 starter. So how do you have them spending money on E. Santana, Harang, and Vogelsong. If they sign any, I would think they would resign Vogey since they are familiar with him and they have a history of rewarding their guys over that last few years. Problem is, he hasn’t pitched well since 2010 and unless he takes less they may move on.
First off, check out Tim’s disclaimer.
Second, I’m not sure how comfortable Bochy would be using Petit as a starter going forward. He stunk in that role this year but flourished in the long reliever spot. I’d also imagine they want to nab a cheap, back-of-the-rotation guy to supplement Cain and Lincecum’s collapses… plus, Hudson will be 40. It’s not going to get better unless they add some depth. I could see them adding some depth to the rotation.
And the Dodgers go bargain hunting to fill their starting vacancy. I don’t see that either.
Well, I don’t see it being Santana, he would cost too much. Harang maybe because he eats innings, but if that is the case then Vogey might as well be resigned instead. Someone in another post mentioned Masterson, but I think he is too much of a mess and we already have a guy like that by the name of Lincecum.
Vogey’s going to have to take less because no team is going to offer him more. Realistically, the Giants are probably the only team who might offer him a major league contract.
As much as we need a super-utility guy like Bonifacio in ATL, his speed is a waste with Fredi Gonzalez steering the ship. If Peavy were fine with no reuniting with Lester, I would love for ATL to get him as the veteran our staff needs. We unsuccessfully tried for him while he was in SD, and I’d love for him to come back a little closer to home and help fill the void that Tim Hudson left with veteran pitching leadership. Edinson Volquez might be a bargain, but he won’t provide that veteran presence.
I don’t know if Atlanta needs to go nuts with starting pitching… Medlen and Beachy will be back after recovering.
angels need Nelson Cruz for DH and Left Field he can split time with Hamilton
comment back asap
Royals will need another SP for the rotation since Shields is leaving. I can’t see Lester being signed, but I can possibly see Scherzer in uniform. I also expect them to sign Butler for a lower number than his previous 12M option; seeing as he wants to stay with the team and they don’t want to lose him (he’s much like Pablo Sandoval is to the Giants). Seeing if we DON’T get Billy back, we’ll need another big bat. V-Mart possibly, maybe Bonifacio due to his history with the team? I’m just babbling. I don’t know much about the business side of baseball in the offseason…
I can definitely see Scherzer in uniform. Just not a Royals uniform.
None of the top 3 pitchers will be in a Royals uniform next fall.
I’m a fan of Jung Ho Kang even with the long leg kick. The guy clearly has the stats in the KBO he crushed everyone in the league, as a SS! I’ve read his arm plays everywhere, even RF. I like his defensive skill set, he kicks the easy play more often than a MLB SS but he makes the highlight plays too. I’ve seen some knock his glove and most knock his range at SS but I think he could be a great utility player. Not enough range for SS and an arm that plays in the outfield and infield, reminds me of Ben Zobrist a little. For those who downplay his KBO success and stats I’d point out how well Ryu transitioned (his 2014 MLB FIP [2.62] matched his ERA [2.66] his last year in the KBO). He’s certainly not without risks but I think he would be a steal at the 3 years $9 million deal I’ve seen thrown around.
You pretty much have to ignore his stats, and scout him. KBO was averaging like 10 runs a game this year, and had like 3 pitchers with an era under 4.00, that is absolutely nuts.
And in the MLB balls arrive at you much faster in the infield. Why you see so many shortstops moving later on, things get rushed there.
Ignore his stats? I hope my teams baseball department isn’t doing that. I’m aware of the sudden increase in offense in the KBO but Kang was still better than most of his fellow position players. He was nearly top 5 in all the important offensive stats and lead the league in OBP and SLG, a league where everyone experienced the same run scoring advantages as Kang. I don’t expect him to hit close to .360 38 HR and OPS @ 1.219 but his stats are a valuable tool in predicting his transition. I think a .265 BA, .345 OBP, .400 SLG with 10 HR is realistic expectations, which is pretty close to Ben Zobrist’s 2014 and career averages.
We don’t even know if he can manage that though. Look at the PCL league which is nowhere near and the amount of players that can’t play in mlb that play really good there. No one has come from KBO ever, we have no comparables, and we honestly don’t know the true talent level of the entire league. 0.750 ops is pretty good from a middle infielder. If he could do that it’s a great price, but you take a ton of AAA players, and I’m sure they would have really good lines in that league.
Is just the unknown, he may have potential, but someone coming from a random league, there’s no comparable, is it equal to a single A league?
Ryu has come from the KBO put up similar numbers here in the MLB. His 2.62 FIP was behind only Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and Jose Fernandez among NL starters. KBO isn’t @ the MLB level and Kang could be a total bust but it wouldn’t be wise to write off his success in the KBO. I heard the exact same things about NPB players until the recent success of Iwakuma, Darvish, Tanaka, and Uehara silenced the NPB’s most vocal critics. The rest of the baseball playing world is improving and the KBO is ripe with hitters in my opinion. I’m not basing my opinion just off of 2014 stats, guys like Kang, Jeong Choi, and Byung Ho Park have put up good numbers for years.
I’m not writing off him at all, I just don’t place a whole lot of stock in his stats. He is someone that you largely have to scout, not get quickly swept off your feet.
The Dodgers will be seeking high risk bargain players. Sounds about right.
The Royals flush with extra money from going all the way through the playoffs, seeing a huge growth in season ticket sales from a reenergized fan base, and losing the salaries of Shields and Butler do nothing?!?! Come on!! We get a power RF and a solid starter at a minimum.
It’s not whether or not KC can afford them in 2015, but can they afford them in 2016, 2017, and beyond? If they went out and signed a guy at $18M/yr over the next 5… can they continue to afford the other guys around them, say Gordon, Escobar, Hosmer? No point in adding players when you have to get rid of other top players just to afford them.
Friedman has to go big after Martin, right? Being Kershaw’s best friend might have increased AJ Ellis’ value with Colletti but the team with the highest payroll won’t continue to roll out a starter who’s slugging .250. I love Ellis’ ability to draw a walk and how he handles the pitching staff but 34 year old catchers don’t usually improve on their age 33 seasons. He seems like the perfect back-up catcher for this team, low cost, great as a second pitching coach, 2 or 3 more years of team control, and he could be Kershaw’s personal catcher giving him another 30 games a year. If LA doesn’t go after Martin and Ellis has another year of an OPS+ of 68 they will be in between a rock and a hard place. They have nothing in the farm at catcher until you get to 18 year old Julian Leon. Cubs at least have Schwarber, who’s closer than any of LA’s catching prospects.
Two injuries produce one bad season and Ellis is history? I agree they have nothing coming up, but I don’t see how Martin solves that problem.
We aren’t talking about Piazza in his prime, even at his best he never really set the world on fire. Now he’s 33 and Fedex and Butera aren’t good enough insurance if Ellis’ slump is more than a cold streak. Martin is a better hitter, defender, pitch framer and has a stronger arm while being 2 years younger. He would be a bridge until Leon is ready. You really don’t see how signing the best catcher in free agency solves organizational catcher depth problems? I’m not talking about making Ellis history either, he’s actually a personal favorite of mine. Martin and Ellis dont play more than 120 games a season that gives 40 games a year while Martin is taking a breather and another 20-30 games mixed in for being Kershaw’s personal catcher. 60-70 games would be perfect for Ellis in my opinion. I really don’t think Ellis would see it as a big demotion the way you’re taking it.
You aren’t writing Ellis off completely, as some are, I grant you that. I mostly liked Martin during his time in LA and I would not mind seeing him back, but I have the feeling some team is going to give him five years, and that would be too long for a catcher in his 30s. Remember, he’s had a few seriously down years offensively already, so it isn’t like he’s a slam-dunk producer. As for the injuries, a catcher stepping on a mask and twisting his ankle doesn’t look chronic to me. All that said you make the best argument for Martin and the Dodgers that I’ve heard yet. I just would not bank at all on an 18-year-old. The Dodgers need a bigger pool of catching talent in the minors if they are going to have any realistic hopes of bringing someone up over the next 2-3 years.
Also citing Ellis’ recent struggles with injuries doesn’t make me feel more confident in his 2015 numbers. To me it points out the need for catching depth even more.
Basically yes, considering he is 34 at the start of next season. He isn’t getting any better.
I like the Dodgers for Martin. They are on the short list for him.
Why would Rasmus receive multiyear offers?
Sure he is young, but he is basically a replacement level player. The 2 good years he has had in his career where BABIP driven.
Because a team might think he will bounce back and wants more than one year of that at a bargain price.
I hope Scherzer doesn’t get sign until almost Spring Training just so he can realize that he’s not an elite Pitcher like he think he is, If he thinks he deserves Kershaw money then he’s insane. Any team that gives Scherzer a contract of 180 to 200 mil and up are out of their minds, he had one good year and turning down that 144 million dollar deal was a big mistake.
It wasn’t the dollars he rejected, but the number of years. He wants a big payday as in 8 years. if Detroit offered $24mill per year and 8 years ($192 mill) my guess is he would have taken it.
Yes, even if he takes the 144MM now he is still better off.
Even at 24 million a year he’s not worth it. I just don’t think he deserves a really big contract like that when he only had 1 year on top of that he’s not that great in the playoffs. I feel like Scott Boras is going to drag this signing for as long as probably Spring Training.
“One Good Year”?
He has a higher fWAR than Price over the last THREE years. He is much higher than Lester.
I think getting Volquez when we can get people like Peavy is a terrible idea.
The White Sox should sign the following: Luke Gregerson (BP), Andrew Miller (BP), Melky Cabrera (LF) & Pablo Sandoval (DH/3B). Stay away from Rasmus & Martinez – Rasmus is no better offensively than Viciedo and Martinez is too old for this team. Hahn wants younger players he can build with for years to come. Anyone 30 or under is the way to go. I think Flowers gets another look for 2015 behind the plate due to the fact he actually hit pretty well (for him) this past year. I can see Hahn pull something out of his hat and make a huge move at the winter meetings. Something like Carlos Gonzalez big. Another SP will be needed once Danks is moved, hopefully. I could see Carlos Rodon be the closer in 2015, like what the Sox did with Chris Sale.
Just don’t see the Cubs going after David Robertson. They aren’t that desperate for a bullpen arm unless he’s a lefty. Not going to spend that big of money on a bullpen arm unless its maybe Andrew Miller. But anyways I do think the Cubs sign Lester, Martin, Rasmus, Peavy, Miller, and maybe Romo.
Why does Miller make more sense than Robertson? Robertson is great at getting lefties out and has a much better track record. If it’s just the money, I think the Cubs could afford the difference.
Just that Robertson is going to be a closer and I think Cubs are comfy with Rondon or Ramirez being the closer.
I see V Mart to the Mariners
God help Red Sox nation should they sign Shields. They want someone to help them in the post-season (assuming they get there),and “Big Game” James is anything but when it counts. He stunk again this post-season- the Royals would’ve won it all had Shields won either of his starts- and his overall 3-6, 5.46 post-season record isn’t gonna cut it.
You’re right, while we’re at it… let’s call on the Dodgers to release Clayton Kershaw and his 7.82 post-season ERA this year. Just awful.
i think the yankees sign hanley to play third and trade for starlin castro to play short
Yankees should ignore massive contract and use their money on players who fit their needs but won’t require massive commitments. For the rotation, Brandon McCarthy is a must re-sign so you have addressed a righty in the rotation and now needing a lefty, go out and bring in either Brett Anderson or Francisco Liriano. There, the rotation is set. For the Infield, SS is needed. Asdrubal Cabrera would be a perfect fit. If he can not be retained just resign Stephen Drew on a 1 year, pillow contract. For Third Base resign Chase Headley. The emphasis this Offseason should be to keep the depth we acquired at the Deadline still on this team! Finally we’ll need a 4th OF that’s where Nori Aoki is perfect to fill in for Ichiro’s vacated role. Solid defense, slap hitter, role player. Perfect for RF with say Chris Young and Carlos Beltran who will primarily DH. Offer Robertson a Qualifying Offer if he accepts great, if he walks collect the draft pick, that is very important! Sign Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo and call it an Offseason. With some trades as well to address other needs (possibly a better Shortstop alternative) Getting rid of Cervelli so Murphy and Romine can get their opportunity.
I think the Yankees have learned their lesson. Best fit = More wins. The blue seats will be empty without more wins.
From Japan, RHP Chihiro Kaneko of Orix Bluewave should enter among the 50. Possibly instead of Maeda, who, with emotional bond with the team and fans of Hiroshima Carp, might play for another year in Japan, after his unimpressive pitching led to the Carp’s falter in this autumn and postseason. Not entitled to the international FA this year, Kaneko is for the posting system, which of course cost posting fees for the bidders. That said, Kaneko seems the best Japanese starter after Darvish, Tanaka and Iwakuma has gone to the US.
Kaneko would be in there if there was clearer evidence that he will be posted.
Yankees are not signing Scherzer! unless he comes in at a bargain he is not a Yankee stadium pitcher, he is a fly ball pitcher and if anything Lester makes much more sense. Scherzer will get his money in another uniform, maybe Baltimore as a surprise. Yankees will look to re-sign McCarthy. Lester will either go back to Boston or sign with Chicago.
… And where would that leave Scherzer?
Red Sox or Cubs
Red Sox are allergic to $s after age 30. Cubs have a more direct connection to Lester.
Seems like your reason for him not being a Yankee is the same for not pitching in Camden Yards.
AJ Burnett to the Royals? I thought we already went over the distance from family issue for at least the past five years? Royals? No way.
If he turns down his player option, where’s he going?
Retiring?
The Pirates over the Royals. Actually, any team east of Missouri over the Royals.
I don’t think the Pirates will try to sign him, could be wrong.
Burnett won’t sign with the Royals. My belief is that the Pirates are where he wants to be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a minimal dollar amount to finish his career in Pittsburgh.
O’s? continue his farewell tour though his former AL East squads? If any guy seems like the kind of guy to stick it to an old team, Burnett is it. I actually think MD is where he makes his home, isn’t it?
Although, the guy would get absolutely rocked in that division, even if the Orioles did have the desire for his services.
All I want is Billy Butler and Jed Lowrie.
Although, if the Orioles resign Miller that would be the gravy on top.
As for predictions for other Free Agents, I have been awful for the most part, plus I don’t have facebook! So no predictions from me. =P
Both Butler and Lowrie for that matter are wildly overrated.
In fact many of the names in that list are going to be over rated, and will demand and receive top dollars to perform poorly compared to what they are getting paid.
I’m very skeptical about the projection of Burnett going to the Royals. In no way does he fit the Royals’ model for free agent SP, namely his age. If the Royals sign any FA starter, Liriano is more likely.
Great list…good choices…but, how can you have the Dodgers signing no one until Romo at #35…then #44 and #46? Are they not still in “Buy a championship” NOW mode? I would think one of the 3 top pitchers would be a sure thing…as well as Miller at #17 and Gregerson at # 32. They know their biggest weakness is the “shut down” bullpen…and I think they will address that!!
As a lifetime Sox fan…I would love to see Boston resign Lester AND Miller as well as sign The Panda…and then trade for a co-ace like Cueto…:) Please stay away from Shields…he will cost the least because he will return the least…
What immediate needs do they have? I could see them going after Russell Martin… but they re already going to be around $220-230M next year. They have a log-jammed outfield with contracts that are impossible to move.
They have a great, young infield and Uribe holding on to the 3B spot until some younger players (Seager) is ready.
Most Dodger fans would agree with this. Robertson, Miller and Gregerson all would seem like better targets for a team that tried piecing the bullpen together last year and failed. Most fans aren’t believers in the back of the rotation with Haren and the collection of arms in AAA either.
As a Red Sox fan I really would rather see them pay out the backside for Lester or Scherzer than count on Shields.
Agree with this 1000 times over. I’m never going to understand why they let Lester get to free agency. Cherington’s comment the other day about how “they were hoping for a conversation with Lester” tells me they aren’t serious about signing him. It’s pretty much what they said about Ellsbury.
Yankees must be measured this year their movements to an exact point without wasting time or money for anything more. I think if they should have to get a senior pitcher and SS Ramirez Hamley button to finish the picture, not to mention his bat which would be luxury in the Bronx. CC and other pitchers already had health problems and could go to surgery in the offseason. And the problem with Beltran and Tex is for testing. So I would go by the way of staying with Headly, McCarthy and Robertson, seeking HRamirez JShields and Ichiro and why not, I like to keep that kid in the outfield.
I feel like this is going to be an interesting off-season for the Red Sox and I have absolutely no idea about the direction they are going to take. They have somewhere around $50M to spend this year and still stay under the cap, but they have literally oodles of salary space starting in 2016. With all the prospects in the upper levels of the minors, a substantial part of their roster going forward should be players in their pre-arbitration years, bringing costs down further. Under these circumstances, you would think they would be willing to spend big on some core players. But, if they were unwilling to give Jon Lester a market-value deal, I don’t see why they would do the same for any of the other big names. I really don’t really get it.
I contrast this to the Yankees. After all the big spending, it looks like they really ought to limit their long-term risks this off-season. How many more mid-to-late-30s declining players do they need to DH part-time? Yet, despite this, I think it’s very likely they will hand out some very big long-term deals, probably to Lester and maybe to someone like Sandoval, etc. It will complicate their long-term salary commitments quite a bit, but I still think they’ll do it.
Since Ned Colletti is no longer GM, I can’t see the Dodgers signing a bunch of washed-up closers for the second consecutive offseason (especially Sergio Romo, who Ned would’ve signed to a multi-year deal in a heartbeat).
Romo is a good pitcher. I think Friedman would agree with that.
But a bit of a gamble, don’t you think? The big problem in the Dodgers’ pen is B. Wilson. He’s tying up a critical roster spot but the question of whether he’ll ever be effective again is unanswered. So are the Dodgers trying to replace Wilson, or not? If so, would they try to do so with another rehab case?
Whenever I see Brian Wilson pitching of late, I think of that phrase “all hat, no cattle.”
Last season his velocity was way down. Nobody offered any explanation why and he wasn’t put on the DL so they weren’t calling it an injury. He looked dazed a lot of the time, like he couldn’t figure it out. Wilson’s status is the key to how the Dodgers construct their pen for next year.
If the Dodgers end up signing the two relievers listed here, or any two relievers for that matter, I can imagine they bump Wilson to a middle-relief role or trade him.
Trade value negligible unless the reason for his huge decline can be figured out and fixed. Right now he is a liability no matter where he is played.
If you can move him outside of your top 3 relievers, you can use him much more sparingly.
Not optimum but that could happen. The original point being though that if he’s fixable the Dodgers don’t need to sign another back end reliver.
I’m not very high on Romo either but I think his bad 2014 was more of a fluke with a couple more dingers going out than usual. If his HR/Fb drops from the 2014 11% to his career average of 6.5 than he should be closer to his 2.50 ERA and under 3 FIP career averages. He still strikes guys out and walks less than 2/9 innings. A large part of LA’s bullpen problem has always been Neds managing of the active roster. I’m hoping Friedman is a lot more willing to give the kids a chance and cut loose the Chris Perez’s of the world.
I’d be pretty pleased if the O’s keep Cruz and Markakis. I’ve only read a few articles on Jung-ho Kang. I’d be surprised if Markakis isn’t in RF for the O’s on opening day 2015. Cruz is probably less likely, but maybe Angelos will show he’s committed to win. 2015 could be the best shot before Wieters leaves (and Davis if you want to count him) and with Gausman/Bundy hopefully in the rotation. I dunno about Kang though. Buck loves Ryan Flaherty as his utility guy, and they aren’t going to move Schoop from 2B.
Why would the Twins sign two more mid level starters? Why wouldn’t they combine that money and go after a front line pitcher?
I hate to say it because the reason they have an opening and it may be too soon, but what about the Cardinals going after Yasmany Tomas?
I think the Phillies would win the bidding war…We’ll give you Ryan Howard to play the outfield though, as a sort of consolation prize. He does hit very well out there in his hometown park! Just sign Melky!
I know the cardinals aren’t typically players in the FA market unless its for a relief pitcher but I probably would have at least mentioned them on some of the FA OF’ers with the loss of their top OF prospect…
The Sox ‘going after’ VMart is most worrisome due to four four words: Paul Konerko ;
Adam Dunn. One would think that the Sox will have learned from this
mistake. I love Paulie, I think he was great for the clubhouse and was
great with the bat, but hit a HUGE wall two years ago after have a
resurgence for two years. And Dunn is just a cautionary tale that you do
not go crazy to over spend for what is essentially a DH. If he falters
badly (or has another season ending injury) then you are right back to
where you have been the last few years. Big whopping hole in your lineup
at DH.
I’m calling it; Scherzer is going to be one of the biggest busts. If he approaches the 7 year 175 million predicted deal, whichever team signs him is getting jipped. He’s a hard thrower meaning he could break down a little faster than other pitchers, but that is not even my main concern. Both his WHIP and ERA went up from his Cy Young season and I don’t see those numbers falling back down heading into the future. Max S. relies a lot on the “K” and those are going to become harder and harder to come by as he ages and potentially loses stuff. Granted I do think it’s very possible he’s a top of the rotation starter for the next couple years, but giving him 7 years would be a huge mistake especially at the annual value he’s expected to get.
Yea, I’m of the same opinion. I think the Tigers were smart and fair in their 144 offer to him before, but if they come back with something much higher than that I think it will be a mistake–especially considering their long-term, high-cost commitments to Miggy and Verlander. No matter the argument about Scherzer’s stuff, his breakdown possibility, his K reliance, the fact is that the market will dictate his pricetag (which we both agree will be exorbitant), and someone out there will pay it. It may not end up being what Scherzer is hoping to get but it will still be the largest salary handed out this winter, and yes, the ‘winning’ team in the Scherzer sweepstakes will be excited now but will loathe the final years of that contract.
Yup, you’re on point with whoever reels him in will be excited now but hurting in the future. I also agree the Tigers offer was fair as well and even at that time a little risky because of the salaries they have going forward; mainly because I strongly believe the Miggy contract was a big mistake at 10 years.
This is going to be an interesting couple years for the Yankees. They need to find a new “identity” now that Jeter was the last remnants of the dynasty years.
They don’t have the best farm system and teams are locking up their young stars so this is going to be interesting. As Cashman mentioned, there are no “rebuilding” years but they need to develop some sort of strategy.
They will keep Robertson and will sign Miller for a lights out bullpen. They will also sign Jon Lester who fits well in the stadium and will come cheaper. They will sign A Cabrera at short and will shock the Baseball world by signing Sandoval.He is the premier guy on the market. A-Rod will DH if he returns at all. Don’t be surprized if they sign Nelson Cruz and use Gardner as a fourth outfielder, for trade bait.
Apparently, the Cardinals have zero interest in improving their team with the free agent market this year. Not even listed as a POSSIBLE destination on the above 50 players…
what are their needs, really? In my opinion, they seem similar to the Nationals in that, well, they were both eliminated recently by the Giants, but more so that they have very, very solid all-around teams as it is. Where are they weak? I don’t know the team in-and-out or what the fans want there? Melky for the OF maybe? Or are you confident with Jay (who played pretty well, coming from a casual observer) and Grichuck?
Well we lost in the playoffs because of our bullpen, so that’s a start. Not sure why we aren’t considered a possible landing spot for Neshek, our own free agent. Then I think we will also kick the tires on Andrew Miller and/or Gregorson. We certainly need more bullpen help, both right and left handed.
Our RF of the future just died, so we certainly could use a bat. Jay will start in CF, but Grichuk has not hit RH pitching at any level…somewhat of a problem. Also, our 1B can’t hit LH pitching. So yes, we need a bat or two. Sadly, I think that puts us in the Morse/Hunter market. Not sure our OF/1B answers are in free agency, but we most definitely have needs.
Hanley has issues with his hand that prevent him from getting off good throws. He cant make the throws needed from 3B.
The pitching market is over loaded this year & teams are NOT happy with the growing cost of SP. I wouldnt be surprised to see the top 3 get a lot less than expected.
Martinez would be a incredible add for any team, but I highly doubt the Angels will in on him. Cost is just too high & we already have aging players to worry about.
we need to get either lowrie, asdrupal or drew and resign melky. Hopefully after buerhle gets traded we’ll have a bit of money to get one of them. with Lind gone we need someone, We cant have an everyday lineup that features gose, smoak, goins, and pillar!
so the tigers offseason is going to be Andrew miller that’s it?
Cubs fantasy much? I know they’ve got deep pockets but I think you’ve overestimated their ability to attract free agents, lol.
Joe Maddon may have just proved you wrong about that.
they attracted Joe Maddon in less than a week, if the money is right the players will go…
They sign Melky, Scherzer, and trade for Hamels….book it
Joe Maddon is a Midwest guy, that probably wasn’t much of a stretch to convince him to manage close to home with a nice pay increase. Scherzer is Yankees bound, they want him and they can outspend anybody. Melky might be a possibility but I wouldn’t hold my breath over it. Yes they’ve got the pieces for Hamels but will they actually pull the trigger and sell the future for now? I don’t see Theo making that mistake. Lester and Peavey seem like real possibilities and maybe a complementary bat like Cuddyer but I wouldn’t imagine more than two big money additions. They’re on the right path with player development at position players, they need pitching. Badly.
I wouldn’t call trading for Hamels a “mistake” or “trading the future for now.” Hamels would be there for the upcoming run in which the Cubs position players will really grow into their roles. I wouldn’t call that a mistake at all, nor is it mortgaging your ‘future’ to have a stud lefty anchoring your rotation for the next four years. And I’m pretty sure Maddon’s from right around the Philly area, but I’m not interested enough in it to look it up…Point being, Cubs have the financial and talent resources to go big this off-season, sign a top-tier pitcher and trade for Cole Hamels, really bolster that rotation that you mention…seems like shrewd business to me, actually…(of course, considering the prospect package that would go to Philly…).
And the Rockies get…. nobody…
They might get one of the bottom guys on the list… with Tulo and CarGo, I can’t imagine they have a ton of flexibility.
Wow… the cubs would be scary as soon as next year with these projections:
Lineup:
1. Alcantara CF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Bryant 3B
5. Soler LF
6. Baez 2B
7. Martin C
8. Coghlan RF
Rotation:
Lester
Arrieta
Peavy
Hendricks
Masterson
I like it other then Masterson. Do not want to see the Cubs sign Masterson. I’m hoping that Travis Wood just had a bad year last year and he can have a bounce back season
The cubs signing 5 top 50 players, 4 of which are pitchers!? I think not. I mean lets be realistic here, that’s A LOT of major signings by one team in one free agency period. Cubs would be wise not lock up so much roster space in one offseason. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Yea they will sign 2 starters and 1 bullpen arm I’m going to guess. If I had to put my money on it I would say Cubs sign Lester, Then one of these three: Peavy, McCarthy,Hammel. Then a bullpen arm most likely a lefty like Miller or Cotts
I would rather see the Yankees move Alex to SS, Keep Headley at 3B, pickup a top notch starter and a big bat Like Cruz or Martinez. Both would be able to DH, Cruz and Beltran could switch out between RF and DH. But I know Cruz wants a deal with the O’s. It all depends if the O’s are willing to give him a 4 year deal like he will probably want. Either way it should be a fun offseason for all teams!
They don’t even know if A-Rod will be able to play DH, let alone a single position on the field…
hahaha dude you would throw your tv through the window if Alex played at SS. This isn’t 2003 anymore.
Please don’t use “big game james” when referring to shields. Worthy is the only one that is to be called “Big game james”
I really think we move Cole Hamels this off season to the Cubs or Red Sox, which would totally shake up the FA top-tier pitcher destinations for Scherzer, Lester, and Shields. Cole’s NTC in his contract gives him some leverage in terms of his future team, but I think he would accept a trade to either of those teams, particularly the Cubs. I think whichever one misses out on Lester will put together an attractive package for Hamels and then its decision time for the Phils and #35
Great. Hanley Ramirez to the Yankees. I look forward to all the people who bagged on Derek’s defense having somebody worse for comparison. Sounds right.
Actually maybe no better but probably not worse and a heck of a lot better offensively than Jeter. And offense is what the Yankees craved in 2014 and crave in 2015. In a perfect world is Ramirez the best option for SS for the Yankees definitely not but this isn’t a perfect world and he might be the best option at this point in time.
BTW, personally I rather see the Yankees sign Jed Lowrie or even Asdrubal Cabrera. But an infield of: Headley (3rd) and one of Ramirez/Lowrie or Cabrera (SS), Prado (2nd) is infinitely better than the one the Yankees used for much of the 2014 season Solarte/Johnson (3rd), Jeter (SS) and Ryan (2nd). That’s just my opinion.
Hanley’s offense is better now than 40-year-old Jeter’s. But just two years ago, Derek was tied with Zobrist for the lead in wRC among all MLB shortstops with 103 wOBA Runs Created, 20 more than Ramirez. Now, sure, Hanley’s an improvement. Hopefully his reputation as a prima donna no longer applies. Back in the day, he was among the worst teammates in baseball.
Nats not in on one top 50 FA? Ouch.
The Cubs won’t sign Robertson.
Martin is going to stay with the Pirates. He’s going to give them a huge discount. Mark my words. Well, just don’t mark them in indelible ink.
I don’t like the idea of David Robertson with the Cubs for two reasons. First, I’m not a proponent of buying into free agent closers with big-money deals over several years, let alone those who turn down QOs and will cost a draft pick. Second, the core of Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop, and Hector Rondon looked pretty capable this year. The team might (and I emphasize “might”) want to look into Luke Gregerson as a setup option. But if you ask me, don’t mess with what appears to be a good thing.
Thinking about starting pitching, I am intrigued by a combination of Lester/Masterson/Peavy, but two of them appear to be wild cards. Peavy is a tale of two pitchers — fastball Peavy, who is vulnerable, and breaking ball Peavy, who can still slice and dice like a surgeon. Masterson’s ground-ball tendencies could be improved upon with the tutelage of Chris Bosio. But the “could-be” is high with this trio. Everything has to break right for the Cubs to make this work.
Lester, Masterson, Peavy, Gomes, Martin… That would be a heck of a crop (and a lot of money) right there.
I don’t see the Cubs dropping that much money on a late innings guy either (at least I hope not). That money can be spent elsewhere as the Cubs have a few high end prospects that figure to be better suited for the bullpen. I do hope they get Lester and Martin, but I am not too sure about Masterson. It all depends on contract length and the AAV.
any executive who gives 50 million to a reliever needs to be fired just on principle. those who surrender draft picks on top of that to do it should be banned from baseball as well.
7.5 million for Veras was enough of a disaster.
Where is Don Kelly on this list? Do people not understand the correlation between DKB playing and the Tigers winning?
I’m a bit curious as to why MLBTR thinks that the Indians will be in the market for a DH. Between Swisher and Santana, the team already has two 1B/DH’s. Swisher to RF is not the answer with him coming off of surgeries on both knees, and between the two of them, I’d trust Santana’s healthy non-surgically repaired knees to take the field every day than Swisher. So really, Swisher is set to be the DH next year meaning that the Indians are looking for a 3B and RF to round out the lineup, and possibly some cheap pitching to help with the rotation and bullpen, but a 1B/DH type? It just doesn’t make that much sense.
I agree with you as of the Indians being in the market for a DH/1B except for one thing. I think if they would only get a DH/1B if it’s V-Mart or Billy Butler. I know I may sound a little crazy because how would we get V-Mart but I think we could because he started his career in Cleveland and never wanted to leave. Also we are more fit to win a world series than Chicago. I think if we get either Victor or Billy we would play them at DH, Swisher at first, and Carlos at 3B. Yeah I think he should work hard again to play 3B so that won’t be a problem. I also agree on the RF help. I think Rios would be the guy to get. With his 300+ BA and ability to hit 15-20 home runs a year makes him a good fit to hit in front of Brantley. I also think we need another good starting pitcher. I think Liriano would be the perfect player to help out Kluber. Also if Carasco doesn’t pitch like he did last year.
Cubs get : Lester, R.Martin, D.Robertson, and Masterson and Peavy?
That’s hilarious.
Read the disclaimer.
Is it crazy to think that the Cubs sign Martin. Send Castillio, E Jax to LA for one of their OFs? Cubs get a veteran OF and Dodgers get a cheap catcher and a guy for the back end of their rotation while swapping big contracts.
I could see them signing Martin, but that trade scenario would never happen.
Why would the Cubs want one of those Dodger OF contracts? Unless it’s Kemp, I can’t see the attraction to that deal for Chicago.
They are wanting to move E Jax’s contract. This is similar to the idea (that almost happened last season) of them swapping E Jax for BJ Upton. They also want a veteran OF. Dodgers need rotation depth and a catcher. It makes sense to me.
Crawford makes sense to me. Played for Maddon in Tampa, then signed with Theo and co in Boston. Can get on base and play some left field. He’s a vet with playoff experience
That trade may get tricky somewhere with all the big contracts, but if Crawford was an FA i’d like him for a year or two
Cardinals need an outfield bopper and could be a potential sleeper to land Cuddyer.
Cuddyer will just take the QO
My predictions couldn’t have been in higher contrast with this list. I had the Sox ponying up for Scherzer and Hanley (to play 3rd) and NY bringing back Robertson, McCarthy, and Headley. I wasn’t really sure if Asdrubal would be NY’s primary SS target, but I thought they’d at least be in on him. Jason Grilli just seems silly to me.
Did they really predict the Tigers would allow Scherzer, Martinez AND Hunter to walk and would be content only getting Andrew Miller out of the deal??
Funny, Steve Adams just wrote that Yankees are not pursing a top end starter and Tim has Max going the Yankees. Seems inconsistent.
If the Yankees re-sign McCarthy and Headley, those are probably the biggest two we’ll see them sign. Maybe Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera too. Max Scherzer? No way. The Yankees don’t need pitching, they have enough of that. And Hanley? I highly doubt it. If the Yankees learned anything from last year, it’s that spending half a billion dollars literally gets you nowhere. Spend small, work smart.
The Red Sox are definitely not signing Shields. any illusions that hes the “Poor Man’s Lester” are really misguided. Post Season Stats all time, 9 series, 3-6 record, 59IP, 45 SO, 5.46 ERA, not to mentiont the 1-2 with the 6.55 ERA this year.
Lester; 9 series, 6-4, 2.57 ERA, 84IP, 78 SO, 2 rings.
and the 9 season 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 1596IP, 1457SO career line for Lester vs Shields’ 9 years, 114-90, 3.72 ERA, 1910IP, 1626SO, which looks really similar, is negated by that playoff comparison. these guys have had almost the exact same career opportunities, both have 9 seasons, and 9 playoff series under their belt, and the obvious difference between them is that Shields is not a very good playoff pitcher, and Lester has been the best thing this side of Bumgardner.
The Red Sox won their three recent championships by having front end starters that stepped up in the playoffs, Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Beckett, Lester, Lackey. they need guys who step up, to whom the big stage isnt too big. Shields isnt the guy
I think the Dodgers target McCarthy to fill the hole in the back-end of the rotation. I’m going to be sad to see Hanley go, but I’m sure an AL team will make him a multi-year offer he can’t refuse. I wouldn’t mind the Dodgers giving him a multi-year deal with the intent of moving him to 3B after 2015, but I don’t want him blocking Corey Seager, who I still believe will outgrow SS.
I think Victor Martinez, Andrew Miller, and Luke Gregerson, or Branden McCarthy will be in Detroit. Maybe Max Scherzer
Jeez, The Tigers only get Andrew Miller? Colby Rasmus (unfortunately) will probably end up in Detroit, given Dombrowski said he wants a left handed bat to platoon with Rajai in center field. Daniel Robertson may be a possibility too.
Honestly, the Cubs are getting too much and the Tigers too little for this to be realistic.
I think there is a zero chance of Rafael Soriano signing with the Houston Astros. An extreme fly ball rate will not play well at Minute Maid Park combined with Jeff Luhnow being the General Manager?
red sox will not go after shields..they want.. either.. sandoval… headley.. miller.. liriano.. soto
Would the Astros really have any interest in Neshek?
They are still so far from contending that he seems like a unnecessary luxury item for the Astros – an expensive bullpen arm. He is also a strong candidate for regression based on his career history – 2014 was a huge outlier – and age. Neshek won’t necessarily be terrible, but he’s likely to be overpaid relative to future performance.
I would expect Neshek to garner the most interest from good teams that had bad bullpens in 2014, meaning the Tigers and Dodgers ought to be near the top of the list. (I’m not sure that Friedman will pay top dollar for a reliever, but it’s tough to say how he’ll behave now that he has a big payroll and big expectations in Los Angeles.)
What about the Tigers, brohio
What about Matt Murton? I’m pretty sure his contract is up and so far hasn’t gotten resigned yet.
tulo in pinstripes, hes the heir to the throne at shortstop. That will happen
I felt bad about only getting 6 of the 32 who have signed so far right, but at least it beats MLBTR’s 3! 😛
It’s amazing HOW WRONG these predictions were.
Whole lot of swing and misses here
4 right so far with two weeks till spring training, well done boys. Better luck next year.