Once just a fascinating story, Braves catcher Evan Gattis is now unquestionably a legitimate big league piece. He is only just 28, has just two years on his service clock, and is probably one of the ten or so best-hitting catchers in baseball (if not, arguably, somewhat better).
For a Braves team looking to improve but seemingly lacking the present payroll capacity to do it, Gattis seems at first glance to be an obvious keeper. But a look below the surface reveals why recent rumors have labeled him a possible trade chip. Specifically, Atlanta has already groomed (and promoted) an even cheaper, probably more defensively-reliable replacement in 23-year-old Christian Bethancourt.
So, if the Braves choose to shop Gattis, what might he be worth, and what kinds of teams might be interested? The bat certainly has played. Gattis introduced himself to the league with a .243/.291/.480 slash and 21 home runs over 382 plate appearances in 2013, leading some to suggest that he would never make enough contact for his power to be valuable. But Gattis answered with a .263/.317/.493 line and 22 long balls while taking 19 more trips to the plate. His walk and strikeout numbers were similar (5.5% walk rate with a K% in the low-20’s), while his BABIP jumped from .255 to .298.
While there is certainly some risk that Gattis slides back to his rookie numbers, Atlanta would doubtless be loath to deal him were that the complete story. While he is a decent enough baserunner considering his size (he is listed at 6’4/260), Gattis does not enjoy the best defensive reputation and may perhaps not be far off from deteriorating further in the field.
Let’s take a closer look at his defensive work. Gattis threw out just 13 runners while allowing 53 swipes. Though that .197 caught-stealing rate actually rated just ahead of other bat-first catchers like Rosario, Derek Norris, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, it is not good. And Gattis fell well behind Bethancourt and backup Gerald Laird, so perhaps we cannot pin the blame on the Atlanta staff. And Baseball Prospectus figures indicate that Gattis is one of the very worst blockers in the game, costing the Braves about 18 additional wild pitches or passed balls over his 93 games of action behind the plate.
While these aspects of the catcher’s job description are perhaps the most visible, however, they are probably not the most impactful. Indeed, the gap between Gattis and Bethancourt/Laird in gunning down would-be basestealers pales in comparison to the separation observed among that trio in pitch framing. Only here, Gattis comes out ahead, profiling as an average or better strike-winner while Bethancourt (slightly below average) and Laird (well below average) do not. (Stat Corner and Baseball Prospectus concur on this general ordering, though the latter is more bullish on this group as a whole.) Pitch-calling and staff-handling are much more subjective, of course, but I am not aware of any reports painting him as a disaster in those areas.
In the aggregate, BP tabbed Gattis as the league’s 8th most-valuable backstop last year. Despite pinning him with one of the worst overall defensive WAR tabs among his peers (with statistics that do not account for pitch framing), Fangraphs still valued Gattis as the league’s 14th-most productive catcher.
While it is generally assumed that Gattis would hold most of his appeal to an American League club, then, it could be that talk of Gattis’s impending shift from intriguing, power hitting catcher to slightly above-average DH are premature. And that expands his market, because it is at least plausible for acquiring teams to believe that Gattis will provide serviceable-enough innings behind the plate for at least a portion of his control. (All while comfortable in the knowledge that a shift to DH or a non-tender can prevent the kind of long-term burden that a free agent contract could bring.)
It remains somewhat unlikely that another National League team would top the bidding, though it is at least possible to imagine a team like the Pirates having interest. More likely, Gattis would draw the most attention from American League teams that saw the Athletics extract plenty of value from a defensively-deficient group of backstops who were good enough on offense to DH or play elsewhere. The Astros, Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, Blue Jays, and perhaps even the Mariners and Rangers could at least be imagined as landing spots, depending upon how the rest of their offseasons shake out. None of these is a slam dunk, of course, and on the whole Gattis’s market is not terribly clear.
As always, it is hard to forecast a return on a trade. But there is one fairly recent, fairly solid comp: the pre-2013 John Jaso deal. Jaso, a (lefty) bat-first catcher then entering his age-29 season and coming off of a huge campaign, was shipped to the Athletics in a three-team swap that saw Michael Morse go from the Nationals to the Mariners and prospects move back to D.C. from Oakland. While the arms that moved in that trade — A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen, and Ian Krol — have seen their stock rise rather significantly since that deal, at the time it was considered a substantial-but-fair price for the A’s to pay to acquire Jaso. (The Morse element of the deal, of course, has been the subject of plenty of criticism.)
In some ways Gattis is less useful than Jaso, who kills righties and has a clear, if limited role. On the other, he has more potential as an everyday option, as he not only mashes lefties but puts up good numbers against same-handed pitchers and is perhaps a better all-around defender. And Gattis possesses a power-based skillset that many teams still desire, especially as it continues to diminish in availability.
So, can Atlanta improve on the Jaso return — a legitimate outlay of talent, to be sure, but one that had plenty of risk and did not contribute immediately to the MLB roster — or will it face the tough choice of taking a potentially significant hit to its likelihood of contention in the next year or two in exchange for speculative future value? That probably depends on how many teams have interest in Gattis as at least a semi-regular backstop.
Rafael Bustamante
Maybe Gattis will be the incentive offered by Atlanta to dump BJ Upton in the same trade?. I think Gattis is a good batter and Atlanta is better with his power but if he gets traded with BJ Upton (obviously getting little in return), the team would be better with Christian Bethancourt and his defense and a new Free Agent OF. I know this sound very appealing as a Braves fan but i can’t imagine who would want to get BJ Upton and his terrible contract even if they got Gattis in the same trade.
Jeff Todd
Could make sense for them to take a chance on Colby Rasmus if they move BJ, though I’m not sure either is a high-likelihood outcome. And I don’t think Gattis is enough sweetener to make the Upton deal palatable.
You’d be getting Gattis (and whatever upside remains of BJ Upton) in exchange for taking on $46.35MM in salary, spread over three years, plus whatever you pay Gattis through arb. He’s really not that attractive a player at that kind of structure.
Rafael Bustamante
Yeah, i guess ATL would have to throw a prospect or something too. It would have to be a really big dump and with the new stadium opening soon i guess it’s not a good idea. Anyway i can see Atlanta’s OF with big changes this offseason, with Heyward and Upton entering their final years. As some people have pointed out, ATL will probably extend one of the two. The other one should get traded IMHO.
Ryan Cothran
Gattis, if 2015 is similar to 2014, will likely see arb-salaries at 3/5/8, making his cost 16.5MM over the course of 4 years. Pairing that with BJ’s sunk cost of $46 million and Gattis would have to be worth 10 WAR over that period to offset the cost of BJ. That’s doable and, in my opinion, Gattis should be plenty to offset BJ’s cost.
Andre 2
Ship him to Baltimore for Matt Wieters with BJ.Wieters is a switch hitter and great defense, plus he played at Georgia Tech.
jaysin n
What about Bethancourt?
Joenis
Red Sox need a second catcher…..
Jeff Todd
Don’t see enough other uses for him to make sense there. He’s a RH bat and the club already has guys like Napoli and Craig kicking around, not to mention a full-time DH in Ortiz.
Not that Boston wouldn’t be glad to have him, but are they going to meet the asking price or beat the rest of the market?
madmc44
If Gattis could play 3 B, DH, 1B and be an emergency catcher—and if he were a LH bat he would be a perfect acquisition for the RSox. Don’t get me wrong and I would add what AL team wouldn’t be interested in Gattis. RSox forever.
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
He could probably play left at Fenway. All things considered, he didn’t play THAT bad when the Braves threw him in there with zero experience at the position just to find him a spot in the lineup. I’m sure he’d be fine if he got an offseason of work in LF.
Edit: OK, I just looked at his metrics. He did really bad. But I still think with some actual training, playing probably the 2nd easiest position in baseball, in the shortest porch in baseball at Fenway, he could be at least an average fielder. But I don’t see that trade happening.
Michael 22
Red Sox won’t be looking for a Gattis or Russell Martin. They’ll probably be looking for a younger David Ross, more or less a Scott Hatteberg-type. Vazquez has the job unless he hits .035 in Spring. They’ll look for backup help only, hopefully not Ryan Doumit.
DerekJeterDan
Chicago White Sox are the most logical fit here.
Gattis can Catch but also get ABs at 1st/DH with Konerko retired.
He’s a solid power bat in the lineup to protect Jose Abreu
Jeff Todd
Yeah I can see that.
If the Tigers lose VMart, they would make a ton of sense. Gattis would DH and play catcher against lefties. Would be a heck of a platoon with Avila, a left-handed hitter with huge platoon splits.
Out of place Met fan
White Sox, Seattle, Rangers, Baltimore, TB all really good fits. Depending on Butler & VMart situation KC and Detroit
David King
I think the Mariners match up very well with the Braves for Gattis.The M’s could spend most of their money on Vmart or they could trade a couple prospects like eg Victor Sanchez and a bp piece like Medina or maybe Ackley to play mostly 2b. The M’s then would still have money for possibily Tomas or whatever they want and some extra pitching.
CT
Any deal for Gattis would have to include highly regarded position prospects. The Braves don’t need pitching as much as position players.
chris hines
I’d love to see him on the Yanks, his versatility fits exactly what they need backing up McCann and Teixeira, getting reps in RF with Beltran and DH. I doubt they matchup very well though since Atlanta is set at C and we don’t have a ton of soon to be pro ready prospects.
Brv Rocks
Believe me, you don’t want Gattis getting “reps in RF”. He is a LARGE man who is very, very slow. If there was any chance he could play OF the Braves would keep him.
FOmeOLS
The orioles want defense. No thanks.
Seamaholic
Isn’t Wieters coming back next year, and they have a decent priced option on Hundley? Why are the O’s in the C market?
FOmeOLS
Good question, I can’t answer it.
Even if they trade Wieters, Caleb Joseph is an excellent defensive catcher. No need for Gattis
Jim Johnson
Gattis is probably going to be a DH first, so his defense isn’t that big of a deal.
Brv Rocks
One thing this article didn’t mention is that the Atlanta pitchers seemed to hate to throw to him. Minor and Santana in particular preferred Bethancourt or Laird to catch their games. Teheran and Gattis got into a staredown contest in the middle of one game.
Evan also had trouble catching Kimbrel and Walden because of their velocity and tendencies toward wildness.
If he could only play the OF I think the Braves would keep him. But he is a DH first and part time catcher/1B.
Keith Law suggested in his one of his chats that the Braves would only receive a back end starter for him but I hope they get significantly more than that. If he is used as a DH I think he could play a lot more games and end up with 30+ home runs. I think they can get at least one top prospect plus a bench player and reliever for him. If they can’t get anything really good for him then keep him.
IMO, the Rangers make the most sense for Gattis. They have a loaded farm system and need to improve their offense.
rundmc1981
“Hate to throw to him” — is that based on one of their words or is that speculation because I believe ATL P had the lowest ERA when throwing to him, compared to Laird/Bethancourt. Sorry, I forgot the vernacular for that stat.
Brv Rocks
No, it’s not speculation. Mark Bowman said specifically that Minor and Santana would prefer not to throw to him.
Jon429
I don’t quite understand why I’ve seen all these Gattis trade rumors and virtually nothing about the prospect of trading JUp. Justin is 1 year away from FA and will make 15 million in 2015. Also its not like there’s a plethora of left field power bats available on the FA market this offseason, especially not young ones. I just feel it’s much more likely that the Braves trade Justin over Gattis. Picking up a draft pick for him in a year just seems like a bad return. I’m also not sold on Bethancourt putting up solid offensive numbers in the majors so I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts the year in AAA.
atlbravosfan
I think the Braves try to resign one of or both JHey and JUp. If one doesn’t want to re-sign, I think they will flip him. I’d bet they would flip both if they both don’t want to sign.
However, going into the new stadium soon, I think the team will spend to keep at least one of them. I could see them keeping both, honestly. The team needs help on offense and I don’t see who they can reasonably pick up and improve.
Begotten
i dont see how there will be money to sign justin, heyward, and also pick up necessary pieces for the rotation
Jon429
Heyward, yes I can see them extending him. Though it will probably be more $$$ than the Braves are comfortable paying, but I agree they need one of those guys in place for 2017 and the new stadium. JUp I just think will be too expensive given his RBIs and power. Not to mention the team already has sunk cost in his brother that I don’t see them being able to unload.
The Resident
Because with Gattis they have a good backup. C-Beth may not have
much of a bat but would be one of the best defensive Catchers in the game.
There is no replacement for Justin.
The Braves don’t want to punt 2015. If Justin/Heyward aren’t signed long term and the Braves are struggling at the deadline, then we can start talking about a move.
jeff 34
I don’t understand why they don’t mention that he’s averaging roughly 350 at bats… He could potentially be a 40 HR guy at DH if he played everyday.
Jeff Todd
I don’t understand how I left that out, when I always cite plate appearances, even when it isn’t necessarily that important to.
I’ll edit. (Not sure I see him as a 40 homer guy, though I guess it’s possible.)
jeff 34
Agreed, I was stretching the limit. 🙂 nonetheless.. to me he is easily a 30+ guy. Thanks for updating
DarthMurph
Kansas City could be one to watch depending on what happens with Butler. If they can get him for Jeremy Guthrie, that’d be a big win.
Brv Rocks
LOL, not a chance the Braves trade a young power hitting DH/Catcher for a #5 starter who is making a lot of money and is only signed for one more year. It will cost at least 1 TOP prospect plus more to get him.
TWE
I think an ATL/KC trade is very possible. I don’t see KC picking up Butler’s $12.5M 1-year option. However, the Braves won’t be looking for pitching. I think a trade involving Cain or Dyson is more plausible (Cain being much more expensive for ATL obviously).
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
I am not a fan of dealing Gattis if we can’t get a good return with an equal amount of MLB offensive production at another position. I’ve said it before that I realize the odds of extending McCann were slim, but the Braves did not pursue it at all in lieu of handing over the catching reins to Gattis, so I don’t like the idea of abandoning him after 1 season for a prospect who is highly touted but hasn’t looked impressive thus far, nor do I like the idea of getting rid of one of the few bright spots on a putrid offense.
rundmc1981
Bethancourt hasn’t looked impressive? The same was said about Teheran who labored through sporadic starts for 2 years before ATL finally let him earn the spot. Bethancourt hasn’t enough time to develop a rapport with the staff, adapt to big-league pitching, and show his raw defensive abilities. ATL didn’t offer McCann much because we had the catching depth to not need to match a NYY overpay, not because they specifically had Gattis in mind. Nothing has changed in the year that we saw Gattis: he hits HR, strikes out a lot, has injury concerns, and major defensive liabilities that make him impossible for a NL team.
LayerCake
Can’t really establish yourself with irregular playing time… Why extend Bmac when he was looking for a huge payday? So instead of extending Freeman (for pretty cheap) we’d be stuck with a shorter deal in place for Freeman, Heyward may or may not even have a 2 year deal AND we have Brian McCann as our backstop for upwards of 5 years. You showcase a year of Gattis to trade him. He was nothing more than a stop gap while Bethancourt developed. Judge him accordingly, AFTER he has an entire season at major league level under his belt.
Ladarius Wooten
I think The Oakland Athletics are the most like destination spot for Evan Gattis, especially after the Yoenis Cespedes trade that really left them lacking for power on the right side of the lineup. Possibly a Billy Burns type outfielder if The Braves can move B.J. Upton. Burns doesn’t have any experience but is a blinding fast speedster who would be good for the Braves to put at the top of their lineup. Though in this context Gattis would basically be traded to the A’s to be their Designated Hitter. I took in quite a few Braves games this season and he is very stone handed on defense.
I think a Evan Gattis for Billy Burns trade would be a very fair trade for both teams, and something like that is what I see happening. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
jeff 34
no thanks… I’m not even sure how you find that conceivable. An unproven awful bat for a proven MLB player with massive power. Forget the defense at this point.
Brv Rocks
that would be a ridiculously bad trade for the braves. I don’t see a match at all between the A’a and Braves due to the very poor farm system of the A’s. Gattis is not going to be given away for the 10th best prospect in a weak system.
Dock_Elvis
Royals makes some sense. They could DH him and catch him and not lose offense the 5 times a season that Perez isn’t back there.
GiantsRule!
Gattis is one of the premiere power hitters in the sport. John Jaso (a bench player?) doesn’t come close in the power department which is where Gattis makes his living, poor comparable at best. Gattis is also in the prime of his career and will have a low salary throughout his prime. Atlanta would keep him before taking a poor return. There isn’t a better power bargain in all of baseball. Return will be huge if Atlanta deals him. I think 29 teams would be interested, but an AL team makes the most sense.
Raul Cajigas
DODGERS need a catcher
Ryan Cothran
As a Braves’ fan, I hate the idea of trading Gattis as I just don’t see Bethancourt being the catcher of the future. In my opinion, he has one above average skill: arm. I just don’t think he has it in him.
Nathan Justice
Braves need hitting and trading Gattis defeats that objective. Plus I think they are over valuing him.
Nathan Justice
…and CB has not impressed
jaysin n
I say the Braves should offer Gattis and Wood to the Blue Jays for Dickey, Thole, Nolin and Urena; works for both teams
Brv Rocks
Ummmmm….did you leave out Stroman, Norris and Aaron Sanchez? The Braves aren’t giving away two inexpensive young stars with 4 years of team control each for one year of a terribly overpriced starter, the overpriced starter’s personal catcher, a good prospect and a throw-in prospect.
brickman
I’ll give you Daniel Murphy for him and Avilan. I know he’s a butcher in lf but with Lagares out there we may be able to cover for him. We need a right handed power bat. He could be it. He also would let us use our second catcher as a pinch hitter since we could use him as the third catcher.
Dillon Atkinson
I know I’m late to the party, but I think the Orioles would be a great fit here if they do not retain Nelson Cruz. With Ubaldo Jimenez going back to the O’s rotation next season, this gives them 6 rotation options. With this, now Baltimore has the flexibility to trade one, or maybe even two of Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, and Wei-Yin Chen, who all performed very well in the 2014 season. Jeff, could you see one or two of these starters being worked into a deal for Gattis?