In the wake of another postseason disappointment for the Tigers, “there’s the underlying question whether this could be the end of an era,” MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes. Several key members of the roster will hit free agency, including Max Scherzer, though the 2013 Cy Young Award winner said “I do hope I’m back. I love this clubhouse, love everybody in here, been to battle with these guys for five years. It would mean a lot to me.”
Here’s the latest from the Motor City…
- If Scherzer doesn’t return, the natural next step for the Tigers would be to pursue an extension with David Price, though the southpaw naturally wasn’t concerned with his contract in the wake of the painful ALDS sweep. “That’s out of my control. That’s the last thing that’s on my mind right now. I’m not worried about that,” Price told reporters, including Mlive.com’s Chris Iott. Price has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting the free agent market after the 2015 season.
- The Tigers’ failure to acquire Andrew Miller at the trade deadline may have been the turning point of their season, John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes. Miller could’ve been prevented the bullpen meltdowns that plagued the Tigers in the ALDS, but instead, he ended up stifling Detroit in two late-game appearances for the Orioles. The Tigers came very close to closing a deal Miller at the deadline but the Red Sox instead sent the lefty to Baltimore in exchange for top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.
- A rival official recently told ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) that he thinks the Tigers will do whatever it takes to re-sign Victor Martinez, as “considering the Tigers’ win-at-all-costs approach and Martinez’s importance in the Detroit lineup, he cannot see them being outbid.” Olney lists five other teams as possible fits for Martinez in free agency, and three are from the AL Central.
- Also from Olney’s piece, he lists the Tigers as a potential suitor for Russell Martin. The free agent catcher could be “a plan B” if the Tigers are concerned about Alex Avila’s concussion history and want a change behind the plate.
As a Tiger fan, every year I hear “this could be the end of an era” and every year they compete. Will there be change? Probably. But I do not expect this to be the end of a winning era.
No one has said that this could be the end of an era after the last few postseason exits. But now this could be the end of the Championship Window if Scherzer leaves and they fill their holes adequately. All the Tigers have done is choke in the playoffs every year
Choke? This nucleus has been to the World Series twice and have never been bounced in the first round until this year, as far as I remember.
That 06 run was very impressive. But then they choked the following couple years and blew commanding leads in the division to lose the division and miss the playoffs. That 06 team with Bonderman/Monroe/Magglio/Inge/Pudge was very different to the team of the last couple years. And the Tigers are 1-8 in World Series games. Expectations have been higher for the Tigers over the last 3 seasons and they have failed to match them.
Expectations have been unreasonable. Last year they had the fifth highest payroll and finished in the top four. This year they had the fifth highest payroll and finished in the top eight.
They didn’t choke, they just weren’t that good.
Maybe my use of the term “choke” was too strong and that usually gets people riled up. I don’t know the right word for the situation. They definitely had the top tier talent but just weren’t a complete team. And a lot of the expectations come from within the organization (from the players) and from the fans. When you have Cy Young Winners, MVPs, and start making the playoffs consistently, people expect more and the next step is World Series. You know that fans only care about Championships and individual awards don’t mean much at the end for fans.
The Tigers wasted several years of their World Series Window with the average on a good day Leyland at the helm. Leyland was routinely out managed in the World Series by managers with less talented rosters. No MLB team stays on top forever, and the Tigers won’t either. Both Miggy and Verlander, while good, their days of being the best are most likely over. Some Tiger fans made excuses for Leyland up to the end, but having Leyland as the Tiger manager was like having your Grandmother driving in the Indy 500. Anyone who watched almost every pitch of every Tiger game instinctively knew Leyland was not getting as much out of the Tiger talent as he should have. The Tigers had enough talent to win at least two, if not more World Series titles during Leylands tenure.
Leyland was grossly overrated. Many bandwagon fans in Michigan loved him due to his personality, but his tactical decision-making was pretty bad
If you have been hearing “this could be the end of an era,” then you have REALLY been searching the internet to find that, because every year the Tigers are the preseason pick to win the Central and go to the WS. So there aren’t that many people out there saying this is the end of the era. This is probably the first time people are legit asking that question, because with age and the contracts, the Tigers have a somewhat difficult situation coming up, although it’s manageable.
They said it last year when they lost Infante, Fielder and Peralta. The doubters thought VMart and Hunter could be washed up due to age.
You both seem to be right. Every fall we do hear that this could be the end of the run. Every spring they are picked to at least reach the ALCS.
The Tigers aren’t going to resign VMart, extend Price, and sign Martin. Too much money. Yes Illitch is rich, but that’s too much for a market like Detroit. Losing Scherzer/Hunter is negated by Price and Verlander’s raises.
Realistically, they resign VMart. I don’t see why Price would sign an extension.
I agree. And I think that is a good thing.
Tigers needs a Red Sox mentality. Get hungry mid-level free agents and sign them to 3 year contracts. Being “top heavy” has failed 4 straight years.
They should also trade for one of the Red Sox 3 Centerfielders.
They’re a realistic landing spot for Victorino and he’s a guy who wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects if they took of most of his salary. Nava is an option too, but he’ll be more expensive.
Rev what are realistic trade options for Victorino? I can’t think of any that would net anything better than a fringe top 20 organizational prospect for a bottom farm system like Detroit, A’s, etc.
You’re not necessarily looking to clean up when you deal Victorino. You’re looking to free up a spot for Betts and to get some salary relief. You could definitely do better than a fringe top 20 prospect if he proves he’s healthy though. He’s a good hitter and a great fielder who can play any outfield spot. That would have value to a lot of teams.
Right now, I think that is all he is worth. He is owed 13 million next year, he wasn’t healthy at all this year. So RIGHT NOW he is worth a fringe top 20 prospect. I am not giving him a chance to change his value before trading him.
That’s the point. You need to. You either trade him at the end of spring training or in the first month of the season. It’s pointless to trade him before then.
Realistically right now is probably a fringe prospect for 80% of Victorino’s salary. There is the possibility that an injury raises the demand and holding on to him for at least part of Spring Training could be a good idea.
I was thinking about Betts/Bradley/Castillo. Tigers should try to pick up one of them, for a reasonable price.
There’s no reasonable price for Castillo or Betts. A team would have to make a tremendous offer. JBJ is doable, though the Sox can always leave him as AAA insurance which isn’t a terrible idea given how little he’s worth right now.
I think the Tigers would be looking for a CFer… but they also need a corner outfielder that is at least an average defender. JD Martinez is here to stay and he is not a good defender.
Really a package of JBJ (defense first in huge “Comerica National Park”, hope he hits .240) and Victorio would be perfect for the Tigers.
Not sure why you think we would need a corner outfielder. More then likely JD will stay in LF next year and Either Davis in RF or someone from the minors making the jump. CF will definitely be a priority as well. Infield defense will be upgraded tremendously with the return of Iglesias. I could definitely see a new catcher in town next year. Avila has way to many injury concerns to rely on for a consistent period of time. Bullpen NEEDS to be addressed this offseason. They neglected it last year for the most part picking up fringe players and everyone knew it was going to be a weak point coming into the season. I can remember talking to my dad on opening day saying if we fail this year it’s going to be because of the bullpen.
Detroit will resign Torii Hunter before they trade for Victorino.
“Failed” would be a wrong word usage here. 4 straight AL Central championships is not a fail on many books
AL Central has been the weakest division for years. When you have that high of a payroll and award-winning players, not winning it all is somewhat of a failure
Not sure I agree. A wildcard has come from the division each of the last 2 years. AL East was worse this year.
The AL East was +12 games above .500. The AL Central was +4 games above .500
These metrics are subjective.
If a division has two playoff teams, I consider that better than a bunch of close to .500 teams and only one playoff team.
There are 2 Wild Cards now. Citing that is basically irrelevant. When there was only one and it usually came from the AL East, the WC team often had a better record than the team from the AL Central.
Except for the division that fails to put a team into the wildcard game. The top teams in the AL by record included 2 AL West, 2 AL Central and only 1 AL East.
And if we do the Bottom 5 teams in the AL By division record – 2 in the AL West, 2 in the AL Central, 1 in the AL East.
As I said, if you are comparing Divisions, you can’t include top teams and exclude bottom teams which is why winning percentage is very fair to compare them.
I agree that the AL East was weak this year all things considered, even though it fairs well collectively.
A division is more than 2 teams though.
Head to head was only a separation of 1 game it was that close (AL Central was 83-82 vs. AL East), but other than that, no stat proves the AL Central was better overall.
Last year the AL West was the worst division.
It doesn’t matter how many teams made the playoffs. You have to look at win %. AL East was the best division in baseball, despite a down year from the Red Sox and Rays
Why do I have to look at that?
If all 5 AL East teams had a 84-78 record, that would be better than a division that has two 95 win teams, but all the rest under .500? Why?
Then that would tell you that the division with 2 95 teams had multiple terrible teams most likely. You can’t compare divisions and limit the amount of teams to 2 or 3 teams per division when there are 5 total.
Well if you’re talking about difficulty of competing for a team in that division, you look at the strength of the four teams they play those 70-something games against. Having one very good opponent and three sub-.500 ones seems less troublesome on average than having four above-average opponents. That’s why the Sox and Yanks were perennial contenders during the years when the O’s, Jays, and Devil Rays were consistently awful.
Agree… failed to win a title.
29 teams fail to win a title
It’d have to be a market value extension for it to be worth it to Price
Tigers would be willing to give Price the Scherzer contract that was rejected last year. Price did not have as good a year this year as Scherzer had last year, so that might work.
And that’s tricky as well. His contemporaries for the class of 2016 are Cueto and Fister. Price has the best track record of the three and those guys stack up much differently than Scherzer, Lester, and Shields do.
Cueto has been substantially better in the last four seasons than Price has been, by most metrics. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get the bigger FA contract if it comes to that.
Not sure you can give Cueto 2012 or 2013 over Price, but you’re right. If they both repeat 2014, Cueto will get the bigger deal.
I’m not sure what metrics you have been looking at, but I have to disagree. Over the last 4 seasons here is a comparison for the two pitchers.
Price: 870.1 IP, 3.04 FIP, 3.10 xFIP, 19.5 fWAR, 17.1 rWAR
Cueto: 677.1 IP, 3.37 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 11.9 fWAR, 17.5 rWAR
Price is also a 6’6″ lefty who has been to the DL once and has won a Cy Young. Cueto is a 5’11” righty who has been on the DL four different times and also scratched from the playoff roster another time due to injury. If the two pitchers have their typical seasons next year I would be absolutely shocked to see Cueto receive a larger FA contract than Price.
FIP metrics have limitations. In those same 677.1 innings, Cueto has pitched to a 2.48 ERA (155 ERA+), compared to Price’s 3.16 (120 ERA+). Cueto has kept his ERA under 3 in each of those four seasons, and nearly 700 IP is too big a sample size to call “good luck” in my mind. Price has won on the innings and K’s for sure, but I wouldn’t call Price the no-brainer top contract guy.
I value you your opinion and would like to hear your ideas on the limitations of FIP metrics in this scenario.
Over the past 4 seasons Cueto’s ERA has outpaced his FIP by 0.89 runs. However, looking over the past 50 years no pitcher with at least 1500 IP has out pitched their FIP by more than 0.68 runs and only 4 of 323 pitchers have been able to shave even 0.50 runs off of their FIP. Going forward maybe Johnny Cueto is the all time outlier in ERA-FIP and will continue to defy his DIP statistics. For me personally, I would rather bet the $150 million on the more dependable pitcher who has a great ERA that matches his FIP and xFIP than the one who has a better ERA, but not the peripherals to back it up.
Their market is bigger than you may think. They regularly draw about 3 million and have the highest tv ratings in MLB.
They can handle a payroll of $170 million. They had $144 million set aside for Scherzer that could go to Price.
They are paying Hunter $14 million and VMart $12 million right now. They can afford to resign VMart, it depends on how comfortable they are with the years he wants.
Doubt they go after Martin. They have catchers in the system.
Detroit’s break even point is $170 million and is going up every year as tv revenues increase. Price may not extend, but it won’t be because Detroit doesn’t have the market to support it.
They are already paying VMart $12 million a year. They could get to 15 with the departure of Joba.
If Avila can’t play, it would only cost about $4million more than Avila will make to sign Martin.
Everything the author proposes is doable for Detroit.
That’s not too much money for them. They already have VMart on the payroll for $12 million. Martin would only cost an extra $4 million over Avila’s salary. They still have the $144 million they offered Scherzer to extend Price.
Money won’t keep them from any or all those potential signings.
All right….. who bent the logo??
I like the Russell Martin idea for them. It’s gonna be hard for them to replicate this year’s offensive output, Will be interesting to see what Dombrowski does.
The “End of an Era” narrative makes no sense.
Look at their regular position players 2013 Opening Day v. 2015 Opening Day.
Only Cabrera and Avila will be the same. Every other position will be different, most of the new players younger than the players they replaced.
On the starting pitching front they have replaced Scherzer with Price which may be considered an upgrade when you factor in the poor bullpen and the fact that Price can go deeper in games and is a bit younger.
The fact is that Dombrowski rebuilt this team while still winning the Central in 2014.
I think people are rushing to coronate the Royals a bit too soon. KC was flawed throughout the season and will need to replace Shields and Butler. Hosmer pulling a.162 game James Loney act also might not cut it.
The problem is the farm system continues to thin out, which makes an influx of young talent less likely. And there are contracts that look like they will have declining returns on them, which is eating up the payroll needed to supplement the lack of incoming young talent from the farm.
Good points.
Castellanos, Iglesias, JD Martinez, Robby Ray are all examples of NEW young, cheap talent (each player replacing a more expensive player) that is required to counterpoise the high salaries of VMART, Cabrera and Verlander.
Tigers can still be top heavy…. but they need a few $1MM or lower guys to keep the payroll in check.
At there’s still Don Kelley.
Don Kelly is an excellent #25 guy. The Tigers problem is that roster positions #10-24 are so much worse than average playoff teams. They are way too “top heavy”.
Olney has narrowed a DH’s prospective options down to half the AL. Seems like going out on a limb..ha. I’ll narrow it to Det/Chi/Sea
Tigers will give him the Qualifying offer, which will lower his value. If they play their cards right, they should be able to agree to a reasonable 3 year deal. If not, take the draft pick and move on with an open DH slot.
Having an opening at DH is not bad when Cabrera and Castellanos could fit there once a week.
I believe the White Sox have a protected draft pick.
I don’t think the QO is that much of a detriment to VMart. He’s a top offensive player, not a mid-tier one like Cruz was last year.
They will both be on the market this year.
How much of a difference will there be in contract value between VMART and Cruz?
V-Mart is the more desirable player. Cruz will be more affected by his QO once again. His 2014 season was mammoth, but who knows if he’ll be able to repeat it. VMart has the proven track record.
Cruz’s track record isn’t exactly lacking, it was just a question of the PED use and playing away from Texas.
The Tigers are not likely to replace Alex Avila…..they have had better catchers (Laird, Pena) on the team and let them go as FA’s. His father is the Asst GM and the Tigers favor loyalty over capability.
If he’s gone it’s because of his ongoing concussion issues forcing retirement. He definitely has an org. job waiting for him, and may not want to risk further damage.
True …but it just seems like they have bigger fish to fry. Between BP needs and FA extensions, Dombrowski will need to solve other major issues first. BTW…I’ve never seen a pitcher react the way Avila does when hit by a ball. Kid must have a glass jaw.
He’s had four medically diagnosed concussions this year alone.
Yeah at this point I’m not concerned about catcher so much as I am about Alex Avila being able to remember his kid’s names at age 40. He might need to hang them up.
Tigers should let Scherzer walk, resign V-Mart and go after some bull pen arms. Given this year’s weak free agent hitters I don’t see many alternatives to V-Mart for 2015.
I feel like Avila has had too many concussions now. For his own good, he needs to be done. Tigers should probably target Martin and Miller, and maybe an arm like Liriano.
Nelson Cruz would be one way to replace V-Mart’s offensives production and free up the DH spot for a rotation of Cruz and Cabrera.
The narrow field of teams that could make a viable offer to V-mart seems limited……AL Team…needing a DH….willing to commit about $20M AAV for next 3 years….Ideas?
I hope they will pursue Martin, and that Avila will retire for his own health.
Do you see the Tigers trading for Benoit to be a steady force in setup?
Would be interested in readers opinion on a possible trade of Verlander to the Dodgers for Puig. Puig is only due 6.2 next year. Verlander 28. That 22 could be used to make a deal with Scherzer and keep him in town. Would LA make this deal? Would you?