The Royals will make an effort to bring back top starter James Shields through free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Shields, 32, has given Kansas City 455 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball over the last two regular seasons, and is still pitching for the team in October.
While the club’s run to the ALCS has made that a return a more plausible scenario, Heyman says that the starting point for the decision came around the trade deadline. At that point in the middle of the summer, the club informed Shields’s agent, Page Odle, that it would be in touch after the season — a sign which seemingly indicated that a run at Shields was at least a possibility.
As I wrote back in March, landing Shields figures to be quite an expensive proposition, but perhaps will not be prohibitive even for the small-budget Royals. If past comps are any indication, even adjusted for inflation, Shields may not be able to exceed nine figures (if he gets five years at all) unless a true bidding war emerges. That could bode well for Kansas City’s chances.
Also helping the Royals’ cause is the qualifying offer that the team will make and Shields will surely decline. While he is an expensive enough player that the impact may not be too substantial, other clubs will need to weigh the cost of giving up a draft choice to sign him. (Of course, as a practical matter, so will Kansas City.)
As Heyman notes, the substantial revenue boost that the club should see from its postseason run will certainly play a role in determining whether the payroll space can be found for Shields. Not only will the team benefit from a playoff gate, merchandise sales, and the like, but should see increases in future streams through mechanisms such as season ticket sales.
All that being said, Shields will have plenty of suitors to choose from. After all, he is attractive to plenty of other clubs for largely the same reason he is to the Royals: in theory, he could represent a more achievable, less-risky investment on a shorter/smaller deal than other top free agent starters Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. Of course, if that kind of reasoning attracts enough bidders, it could drive Shields’s price tag up significantly.
Stonehands
I think Shields’ best comps are the CJ Wilson or Jered Weaver/Josh Beckett contracts from years ago (taking into account inflation). I think 5 years is an overpay, but he will most likely get it.
My early prediction will be 5/95 with the Red Sox or Dodgers. I feel like that is too much for KC to swallow even with incoming playoff revenue
Rally Weimaraner
Weaver and Beckett both signed extensions not FA deals and Wilson made it clear from the outset of his FA he wanted to play in LA. I don’t think those deals are good comparisons.
Stonehands
I understand that, but in the past 5 years, there are no real comparisons that I see. Do you see him going for more than that? I would absolutely max out at 5/110, and any team that sign that deal would regret it after year 2
Rally Weimaraner
Given his age it is harder to find comparisons but his production warrants a higher AAV, I was thinking 4/100. Shields has pitched over 200 inning for 8 straight seasons and has averaged 4.1 fWAR per season over the last 4 years.
Stonehands
Understood, he has been a legit number 1 for half a decade now, but if he can be had for less than 5 years, that would be a huge win for the team that signs him
Rally Weimaraner
Also, if he can settle down and hove some good postseason starts in the ALCS and possibly the WS his price tag will skyrocket. Teams love to overpay based on small postseason samples.
dwarfstar
Think Arroyo?
Rally Weimaraner
Arroyo was a lot older and never was as dominant as Shields. Sure he pitched 200 innings a year but they were not of the same quality.
dwarfstar
Yes Arroyo is 2-3 years older, my opinion is the pitch ability is the same as far as what the throw and the velocity they have. That is why Shields will command more than Arroyo because of his age. Shields contract will be 4/75-80 possibly with a option on a 5th year making total guarantee 80mm and as high as 95 if option is picked up..
Rally Weimaraner
The “pitch ability” and “velocity” they have are vastly different! Shields averages 91.4 MPH on his FB, Arroyo 87.9. K/9: Shields 7.99, Arroyo 5.81. Arroyo was never as good as Shields and they are totally different types of pitchers.
dwarfstar
Last report I saw said that Shields average fastball was 88.8mph.
Rally Weimaraner
Check again, Shields average FB velocity is 92.5 MPH in 2014 and 91.4 MPH for his career. Sheilds is a power pitcher that threw 51.8% fastballs (4 seam, 2 seam and cutter) this year.
dwarfstar
Went looking to see if I could find that report, I could not, saw the numbers you said, must have misread what I was reading. My apologies
Dock_Elvis
Arroyo will be 38 in February, Shields is 32 according to this post
Scott Berlin
John Lackey and AJ Burnett’s contacts might be the floor. But both of them were at similar standpoints in terms of numbers and age as Shields.
RyÅnWKrol
Angels got discounts for Weaver and Wilson, especially Weaver, as he wanted to stay with the Angels and didn’t care all that much about being among the highest paid starting pitchers.
We could look into Anibal Sanchez, but was the track record the same at the time?
stl_cards16
Not even close. Sanchez, to this day, has never thrown 200 innings in a season. Shields just completed his 8th straight season over 200.
Kyle 19
You have to remember Weaver took an very very team friendly deal. At the time of the signing he was in the conversation for being one of the top 5-10 starters in baseball. In the year he signed his extension he was in the middle of a season in which he would finish second in the AL CY voting to the eventual MVP, Justin Verlander. Also, the prior year he also placed 5th in the CY young voting…. and the year after he signed he finished 3rd. So when Weaver signed he was one of the best and a lot younger (28 if I remember correct.) Huge age difference. Huge ability difference (at the time of the contract.) Although Weaver took his deal as he wanted to stay in Anaheim and I am guessing Shields just wants some money so, due to that, I think Shields will get maybe about 5/110. So many differences between Weaver and Shields it is crazy, Weaver’s deal was team friendly and Shield’s will not be. Weaver was young Shields is not. Weaver was one of the best (top 5) at the time of his deal and Shields is not (in my opinion he is a top 20-30 pitcher) Weaver’s deal was an extension…. Shields will be a free agent.
RyÅnWKrol
Yes, Weaver’s extension was signed around August 2011 while Shields will be signing via free agency.
Matt He.
Dodgers would be more likely to go after Jon Lester. They are stingy with draft picks and Lester won’t cost one and Shields will.
Rally Weimaraner
With Lester and Scherzer on the market this year KC just might have a shot at signing Shields. Still seems like a long shot to me.
Stonehands
It seems like KC is doing this for PR purposes. They are in a similar situation as the Pirates are with Martin, the fans want him back and they will make it appears like they are making every effort to do so. I just think both players are priced out of small market teams
Jeff Hill
You can say the same thing with the Red Sox, proposal of 5 years 100 to Lester when they were still trying to extend him. These are definitely are definitely PR moves. Neither will return to their team.
Stonehands
I understand that but the difference is, the Sox could afford Lester easily, and chose not to, then traded him. Which frustrates me more than anything as a Sox fan
Jeff Hill
Frustrating yes, understandable still yes. The 2013 WS championship screwed the franchise!!! Mark my words
Vandals Took The Handles
Shields has bonded with his teammates. They can be a power for the next 3-4 years, with him as the leader. He doesn’t need to go to a large market team that is built around free agents.
Colin Christopher
I hope you’re right, but I find the whole “bonding” thing an unlikely reason for him to stay. The contract he’s finishing out was a very team-friendly deal that he signed almost seven years ago, and this offseason will likely be the only chance he ever has to really cash in on his career.
rundmc1981
You hear this, NYY? You absolutely need Big Game James over Lester, Max, without a major overpay. (And I’m not a NYY fan).
Stonehands
There are 30 teams that would want to get there hands on Shields without an overpay, but this is free agency.
MB923
Been saying that all along. If Shields become a FA and if the Yankees are interested in getting 1 of the 3 big FA pitchers, I’d rather the Yankees be stuck with say a $75-$80 million contract over another $140-$150 million contract (likely what Lester and Scherzer will get). Shields is more likely to give the team that $ worth than Lester & Scherzer.
MB923
And the same reason why I’d want them to go after Hardy over Hanley, assuming they are after a big name FA SS as well
Stonehands
Hardy to NY has been said for about 2 years now, that’s my early prediction, but I think the Yanks don’t have the same logic that you do, I see Scherzer deciding between two very large offers from the Dodgers and Yankees
Jeff Hill
Well that prediction is going to be wrong because it had been reported that the O’s and Hardy could agree to an extension soon.
dwarfstar
I think you are in the correct range on what Shields will get, I think you fall short on what to expect from Scherzer and Lester. Scherzer will be the largest f/a pitcher ever signed, my prediction for Scherzer is 7/185-190mm. My prediction for Lester is 7/160-170mm
Scott Berlin
Scherzer turned down $144 million, I think he’s looking at something much bigger then $150, I’m not saying he’ll get it though. But I’d prefer Shields than Lester.
DarthMurph
I’m tired of this “Big Game James” nickname. His postseason performance leaves a lot to be desired. Why does he the nickname if Lester and Scherzer will get bigger deals? Are they not “Big Game” Jonny and Max?
Ernesto
It started as Complete Game James back in 2011 when he had 11 CGs. Eventually it turned into Big Game James.
John Cate
“Big Game Jo(h)nny” should belong to John Lackey, not Jon Lester, although neither one is a slouch in big games.
start_wearing_purple
If Shields isn’ fully committed to the top dollar contract then the Royals have a good shot at him. However I wouldn’t be surprised to see a price war around Shields.
seth
Heard this morning the were looking to give him 4 years/$80 million
Jeff Todd
If you’re referring to what ran on Sports Illustrated, it is a pretty confounding mis-interpretation of Heyman’s report.
Heyman never said the Royals were going to offer $80MM, he just said that a competing GM saw comps in that range. And the headline on SI says they are planning to offer Shields an extension, which is not at all what is being reported (though it is theoretically still possible).
seth
I actually had not yet seen the SI report.
Jeff Todd
Ah, well, maybe some other outlets made the same mistake. Or, if there is actually someone reporting numbers, would appreciate knowing who/where!
UltimateYankeeFan
I doubt the Yankees are interested in any of the 3 high profile FA starters (Lester, Scherzer or Shields). My best guess is the Yankees re-sign or at the very least attempt to re-sign McCarthy and if that doesn’t work they go after Liriano a lefty FA. They will probably spend the rest of their money this winter on a “quality” SS, Headley (hopefully) and an extra bullpen arm.
dwarfstar
Headley does not play short stop..
UltimateYankeeFan
I realize that. That’s why there is a comma after “SS”, I was referring to signing Headley separately for 3rd base.
dwarfstar
What do you do with Rodriguez?
UltimateYankeeFan
First I see what if anything he has left in the tank at 40 years old and only having played about 280 plus games in the past 4 years none in 2014 with 2 bad hips. Then I give him most of his time as a DH and as a back up to Headley.
UltimateYankeeFan
What I don’t do if I’m the Yankees is plan my entire 2015 season on the expectation that A-Rod is my starting 3rd baseman at this point.
dwarfstar
That I definitely agree with you on.. What is Headley worth, and will Alex do that, and if he does what about Beltran, Suzuki and so on?
UltimateYankeeFan
Ichiro’s a FA he isn’t coming back. Hopefully with Beltran getting the bone chips removed can give the Yankees more time as the right fielder, A-Rod accepting being a DH is not an issue. He has to if it comes to that.
UltimateYankeeFan
“What is Headley worth,” To paraphrase a MasterCard commercial. If Headley can contribute to the Yankees making the postseason which I think he can. His worth is “priceless”.
dwarfstar
Based on what Headley’s free agent profile says he will cost 4/48mm, while that is not a substantial amount to the Yankees. I think it will preclude from doing anything else major in free agency..
UltimateYankeeFan
My guess is he probably will get a little more than that from the Yankees if they re-sign him. Playing the “hot corner” and with numbers this year very similar to what the Yankees signed Gardner for last winter I can see him getting 4 years / $50 to $52MM. Again not an unreasonable amount and not a lot for the Yankees.
UltimateYankeeFan
Ichiro is a free agent for 2015. Beltran should be able to give the Yankees a lot more playing time now that he’s had the elbow surgery to remove the bone spur and Alex has to do and play where ever the Yankees want him to if he wants to continue to receive his salary. I don’t think that’s an issue.
DustyKemp
Yankees almost HAVE to go after a starter. Missing the playoffs in NY is unacceptable.
UltimateYankeeFan
I’m sure they will. The question is who not really if in my opinion. Keep in mind the Yankees didn’t miss the 2014 postseason because of their starting pitching. They missed it because their offense stunk.
DustyKemp
Offensive numbers seem to be down everywhere, though, and the effectiveness of the rotation is questionable for next year. Sabathia, Pineda, and Tanaka will have question marks, and guys like McCarthy are like catching lightning in a bottle. I agree that upgrading the offense is a priority, but the league has shifted to pitching over hitting. I see them attempting to snag a top arm AND trying to get a couple offensive upgrades.
UltimateYankeeFan
It’s true offense is down. But not down as much as the Yankees pathetic offense was in 2014. As for your comment about catching lightening in a bottle. I don’t think re-signing McCarthy equates to that. But that’s also part of the reason McCarthy won’t cost any team as much as the top 3 FAs. McCarthy is arguably the 4th best FA starter on the market this winter.
DustyKemp
Based on this year, maybe. I am doubtful that he will be worth half as much as he was this year though. Just my gut feeling.
jjs91
Offense is just as down in KC as it is in NY. The rotation got hurt, Warren and betances got tired. They still ended up doing well, especially Betances, but the new starters took their toll on the pen.
UltimateYankeeFan
I can’t disagree with you more. The offense looked terrible this year.
jjs91
Disagree? It’s not a matter of opinion… Yankees wOBA .305, Royals .306, Yankees wRC+ 92, Royals 94.
UltimateYankeeFan
Considering the Yankees payroll and expectations because of that payroll there is a difference.
jjs91
Yes there is a difference, but that difference has nothing to do with each team’s offensive capabilities.
UltimateYankeeFan
We are going to have to agree to disagree. Have a good day.
UltimateYankeeFan
Anytime the Yankees offensive team stats are in the bottom 3rd of all American League teams in Runs, RBI’s, BA, OBP and OPS. That’s a very real concern and one that can not be ignored. The Yankees need to improve offensively, no ifs ands or buts.
DustyKemp
It’s true. I never said they wuoldn’t try to improve offensively. I just don’t think there is much out there to CAN improve them. They will certainly try to land some bats (I said that in my first post.) I just see them going after at least 1 of the top three arms just because they can.
RyÅnWKrol
Modern Yankees fans should go back in time to the 1980’s. For all we know, they could be headed back in that direction.
DustyKemp
For the sake of seeing more parity in this league, I would welcome it gladly.
karkat
Shields’s age seems like it could definitely hinder his ability to get a 5th year. Five years runs through the age 37 season of a power pitcher. Nothing a bidding war couldn’t fix, though.
UltimateYankeeFan
For what’s it’s worth I think J.J. Hardy is about to come off the table as a possibility for not only the Yankees but for any team other than the Orioles. RotoWorld is reporting the Orioles are set to announce they are extending J.J. Hardy to at least 3 years with a possible 4th year option. The deal according to them is valued at a guarantee of more then $40MM.
dwarfstar
How about Andrus to the Yankees?
UltimateYankeeFan
I don’t think the Yankees would be interested in him. He’s under contract through the 2022 season with the Rangers and I’m not sure in my opinion he’s worth the money or the years.
dwarfstar
Defensively good, wish bat was better.
UltimateYankeeFan
Just my opinion with Hardy off the market the Yankees may need to put together a package to make a trade for a starting short stop. The Diamondbacks and Cubs I believe have an abundance of short stops one of which that they could make available. The ONLY other option in my opinion is Lowrie and I’m not thrilled about him at all.
docmilo5
Good luck KC. The fans there deserve a quality product. I would love nothing more than to see Boston strike out on FA’s this year. Shields stays in KC, Lester to Miami and Scherzer sticks in Detroit after they lose VMart to Seattle. 😀
dwarfstar
Hardy deal is reportedly done now. 3/40 with 6.5mm deferred and a vesting
option.
UltimateYankeeFan
Probably about as well as he could have done even had he become a free agent.
dwarfstar
Now the Orioles reportedly working on a new deal for Nelson Cruz!!
UltimateYankeeFan
That’s going to be an interesting one. He turns 35 during the 2015 season. He’s probably going to be looking for 4 years guaranteed and between $75 and $85MM total. We’ll see.
mrnatewalter
It’ll be interesting. He’s pretty much cemented himself at DH with his defensive incapabilities, and that’s not all that attractive anymore. Pure DH guys are going the wayside it seems.
Andy B
I would say the Adam wainwright deal is best comp at 5/97.5. Wainwright signed a year before free agency but he’s also a little better than james.
John Cate
They might have a shot with the QO hanging over his head, expect for the fact that one of his suitors is likely to be Boston, which can out-spend the Royals and which also stunk so bad in 2014 that their first-round draft pick is protected. But you never know. If KC’s playoff run allows them to push the payroll envelope and they could go $80-90MM over five years, he might just decide to stick around and play behind that great defense.
bobbleheadguru
Shields is old.