It is always somewhat bittersweet for the baseball season to end, but rarely does it do so in such excellent fashion as last night’s Game 7. So as we tip our caps to the Giants (and, of course, the Royals), we can comfort ourselves in the knowledge that today is the start of the offseason.
Offseason spending, of course, does not guarantee anything. This last season proves that yet again. In an update I provided in mid-March, after most of the major outlays were in the books, the top three teams by total free agent commitments were the Yankees, Mariners, and Rangers. Though most postseason teams threw around some fairly significant dollars, led by the Dodgers with $105MM, half of them — including the newly-crowned champs — promised away less than $50MM.
Nevertheless, free agency (in addition, of course to the trade market) offers the chance not only to grab in-prime stars but also to plug holes, make upgrades, and find value in unexpected places. Will the Yankees follow their reported course of more limited spending this time around? Will the Dodgers trim payroll or make a splash? Do the Red Sox or White Sox fill up their largely open future balance sheets? Or is there a surprise team sitting on a hidden war chest?
That remains to be seen. For now, however, you can predict: which MLB team will commit the most total dollars (overall contract guarantees) through free agency? (Team order randomized.)
Red Sox or Cubs. Cubs are signally they’re going all in on the FA market and the Red Sox already said their preparing the spend heavily.
Pablo has to stay with the Giants, doesn’t he? Bringing him back on a multi-year deal automatically puts SF in the top third of spenders I would think.
Giants have a track record of retaining their core players and paying them for past performance. After winning the WS I would be very surprised if he wasn’t a Giant next year. That being said he’s contract would put the Giants as one of the biggest spenders but not the biggest… whoever signs Scherzer or Lester will take that crown.
Yea, I think the Red Sox will go hard after Panda, and probably even offer him more money than SF, but in the end I don’t think the Sox will be able to pull him away from the championship team. But, who knows, SF might not be willing to offer Pablo the Hunter Pence deal and I think Boston will.
I think Boston could give him the 100 million dollar deal he wants probably over 6 years, something like 6 years 110.
Boston has been there and done that. They signed AGon and Crawford and then dealt them away. I don’t see Boston signing anyone to a contract more than 4 years and $80M.
I think 4 yr 80 mil is a little low… but I don’t see Boston exceeding 5 years. They may be able to offer more money over less years though
Panda isn’t getting $20 a year so I don’t see him in Boston. Well, I don’t see him getting it, but I don’t have a crystal ball so I really don’t know.
I do like some of the posts in here talking about Shields getting back with Maddon in Chicago. I can see that. I can also see the Mariners going after Lester to bring him home. He grew up an hour or so from Seattle and he’s already said he’s not just going to the highest bidder. Seattle has everything to make him comfortable, money, close to home, a rising team with a quality minor league system.
The Orange aren’t going to have to worry about Boston for some time.
Oh I don’t think Panda gets 20 mil + either. His contract seems so odd due to his body type most likely not aging well at third base.
I hadn’t really thought about the Mariners going after Lester… guess I could see it happening but with their payroll so thin you would think they would target a bat.
The M’s bought their local TV network. Their TV contract is going from about $45M last year to $115M this next year. The M’s can afford to go after Tomas and Lester.
I just hope Shields doesn’t go to Boston and if he does it better not be for Ace money because he’s certainly not an Ace and doesn’t deserve 20 mil a year.
I think that this will be the year that the Red Sox go big. I see them willing to give longer contracts to FAs just because of the fact that they’re somewhat desperate, as the roster right now will not be able to compete.
That is more of a reason not to do that. Hypothetically the Red Sox buck their recent strategy and sign 1 or 2 big contracts which inflate their salary commitments. Best case scenario they end up fielding almost the exact same team they did this year (minus Lackey and Peavy) which was still in the bottom of the AL East. Worst case scenario the big free agent signing ends up being a dud, the team is still bad, and they have a inflated salary with a non competitive team. As an O’s fan I hope the Red Sox go out and start signing 6-7 year contracts again.
I think the Red Sox have no choice but to sign a few big name stars if they plan to be competitive. Right now, their rotation is insanely questionable, Bucholz is a guy who has proven to be inconsistent as well as a guy who lacks durability and as of right now, he is the ace. After that there are even more question marks with how the rotation will look which I will not go into. If the Red Sox want to be competitive next year, they’ll at the very least need an ace and number 2, and preferably a left-handed 3rd basemen as well as a late-inning arm. So basically, they’ll need to sign Scherzer or Lester (Shields doesn’t cut it and I’d rather not trade a haul of prospects for Hamel) first and foremost, and then prioritize between for their other needs.
I wouldn’t mind Hamels as long as they don’t have to give up a whole lot but as long as they don’t give a huge contract to Shields that’s fine. To me Shields doesn’t deserve 20 mil I would go as far as signing him for 13 to 15 mil and that’s it.
I completely agree with you. The only problem is that Ruben’s asking price is too high according to reports (which is not surprising) and while I consider Hamels one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Phillies really don’t have much room to bargain; they aren’t competing with him during his prime, so trading him would net them some good prospects for their future. Also his value is lowered as of right now because there are pitchers who are FA that provide almost as much value. A trade of Owens or Swihart and a few more mid-tier prospects would be somewhat fair IMO and, they can have Middlebrooks or JBJ too. As for Shields, I think his AAV will be between 17-20 million which isn’t worth it given his age and potentionial decline (I don’t think he’ll be an ace 2 years down the road) and as well, I’m not sure he’d perform great in Fenway.
IF the Red Sox go after Panda, that’s a low move man. I mean, Middlebrooks is still under contract and he did well his first year. That’s a total slime ball move after he injured himself last year.
Middlebrooks isn’t the long term answer at 3rd. He has been bad sense he has been called up and has little to no trade value. The Sox wan’t to compete next year and Middlebrooks is a glaring hole in their lineup
Middlebrooks has had plenty of time to show them what hes got. I don’t see how improving the team would be a slime ball move.
A team that’s not one of “the usual suspects” will contend in the Sandoval sweepstakes. It could be the Nationals; it could be the White Sox.
I see Panda getting a 7 year, 122.5 million dollar deal IMO and maybe a few dollars less to stay with the Giants. He also might take less years for a higher AAV. Overall, he is the best 3rd basemen on the market so somebody will overpay.
I think it depends. There’s gotta be a small fear regarding the length of contract he wants. I know the Giants love Pablo, but they also don’t love his lack of conditioning. If a deal is done, I’d imagine there is a team option after a couple of seasons… they can’t afford to lose 3 years at that kind of money.
That being said, if San Francisco offers him a contract (which I hope they do), I can’t imagine him not signing it. That city has been great to him. That club has worked wonders for him.
I’m going with the Cubs. I believe they will sign Lester to a monster deal and maybe even Shields to be a mentor to their young pitchers. Next up will be the Red Sox since they will more than likely give Sandoval a massive contract. Then the Yankees will follow-up in 3rd with a bunch of collective smaller deals. I think resigning DRob will put in a good chunk of money, plus deals for Headley and McCarthy as well. Cannot really count taking on any salary in trades, which is a possibility.
I agree with this. Yankees will probably get D-Rob when he declines the QO, plus Headley, plus McCarthy, and probably Drew as a platoon at SS. They’re all small and mid-type signings but they add up to put them in 3rd. Drew would probably be something like 1 year, $3m. D-Rob would be something like 4 years, $40m (I went lower than what he could get without a QO attached to him obviously). McCarthy isn’t durable enough for 4 years…I can see 3 years, $36m, Headley I’m not sure about…maybe 4 years and $52m?
Headley will get overpaid as both the Yankees and Red Sox are probably going to be fighting over him
I’m hoping the Yankees will make good use of that exclusive negotiating window with Headley and McCarthy. Both indicated they enjoyed playing in Pinstripes. If they went a little aggressive, they might be able to lock them up. I think, given their budget limitations, Headley, McCarthy, Drew or Jed Lowrie, a Tori Hunter-like outfielder to play right for when Beltran DH’s and the occasional day-off and/or disabled list stint for Gardner and Ellsbury and maybe, depending on where they are when they have that done, Andrew Miller for the bullpen, might complete the shopping for the Yankees.
Yankees definitely don’t need another OFer. Other than that, I agree with you. Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, Prado, and Refsnyder is plenty.
They could use a serviceable one actually if Beltran and/or Ellsbury go down. Even Gardner is injury prone now.
I’d be ok with bringing back young as a right handed bat/4th outfielder type. If not then try out some of the kids and see what kind of major leaguers the baby bombers can be
Ellsbury isn’t injury prone so I’m not sure why you included him, unless you feel that someone falling on top of him twice is someone due to his body being fragile or something. Gardner is somewhat injury prone. Beltran is the most likely to get hurt just because of his age. Still, I named 2 other players they have that can fill in so the point is moot.
Prado is expected to play 2B and there has been no indication that the Yankees plan to use Refsnyder in 2015 on their roster. I think they should, but the Yankees haven’t said anything yet. We shall see.
Maybe re-sign Chris Young to a low contract.
Prado is expected to play several positions as is the case with almost the entire roster. And there is no indication that Refsnyder won’t get major league time.
Then who do you suggest plays 2B on days he doesn’t? Also without a SS as of now (unless you count Brendan Ryan).
“And there is no indication that Refsnyder won’t get major league time.”
No but he’s never played in the big leagues and as I mentioned the Yankees have not indicated that they are promoting him. I sure hope they do though.
Ryan and probably a re-sign of Drew will platoon SS. I expect a utility IFer to handle 2B when Prado isn’t there which is what we do every season. Refsnyder of course if another obvious example of someone who can fill in.
And it doesn’t matter what indication they gave of promoting Refsnyder. He’s there and can be used for the OF or 2B (though OF is more likely until he improves his defense at 2B).
In my ideal line-up, Prado is at second base and batting second every day. That’s where he seemed most comfortable and once he took over there everyday, his bat came alive and he was the Yankees best hitter in September. He did not look comfortable in right field at all. Also, he could see some time at third, depending on A-Rod’s health/effectiveness and/or whether or not Headley is resigned. Also, in my ideal scenario, Refsnyder at least starts the season in AAA, continuing to work on his defense. He’s a work-in-progress there. Let him learn the position at AAA. No need to put the pressure of continuing to develop at a relatively new position at the major league level. Let him make his mistakes at AAA and then call him up when he’s more confident. So yeah, I see a need for a steady veteran outfielder. There will be plenty of at-bats for him.
Refsnyder can play the outfield, as can Prado. I can guarantee you Prado will not play 2B everyday. A utility IFer will take over. Headley and occasionally A-Rod will play 3B. There is no reason to logjam more outfielders.
As in previous posts I agree with you. Headley McCarthy and Robertson should be resigned. I’d like to see a trade for a ss instead of bringing Drew back. If the Yankees sign one of either scherzer or Lester I wouldn’t be disappointed but I don’t feel it’s necessary. More important that they fill the offensive holes.
Exactly what I was thinking on the Cubs and Lester & Shields. It looks like Joe Maddon might be joining Theo Epstein out in Chicago, so these two top starters both have some familiar faces out there. I think the Cubs are fairly comfortable with their young core of position players and will therefore hit the FA pitching market hard. If the Cubs snatch up Lester, I think the Phillies and Red Sox definitely work out a trade for Cole Hamels.
I would be very surprised if the Cubs went after both Lester and Shields. I think they will sign Lester and then look at a next tier guy like Peavy or Liriano. They may also be in the market for Russell Martin.
My opinion exactly. They will go after Lester and if for any reason they can’t get him then and only then will they go after Shields. More than likely they sign Lester and then go after McCarthy and Liriano. They will also be in on Russell Martin and Nick Markakis.
I can’t really see the Cubs having interest in Nick Markakis unless his price drops severely and maybe not even then. If Soler takes one corner OF spot and Coghlan is already signed and bats left handed, I don’t quite see how Markakis fits. Especially when you consider that many feel Bryant will take a corner OF spot as well. Coghlan even had a better 2014 than Markakis at $14.5M less and the Cubs still have 2 years of control on him. I’d say No to that signing if my opinion is asked …
I didn’t realize how much Markakis was making! You are right, looking at both Markakis and Coghlan’s WAR they were almost equivalent. It would be a smart move to keep Coghlan on. Everything I’ve heard so far indicates that Bryant will start at 3B, at least to begin his Cubs career.
Just thinking that this probably/hopefully the last year the Cubs will have 1st round draft pick compensation protection, I think they will spend a significant amount. I think they might have a trade or two in them with spending the assets theyve built in the farm system as well.
It has to be the Red Sox because they are going to sign either Lester (5% chance IMO) or James Shield (60% chance IMO) and they will add either Sandoval or Headley. And then possibly sign Maeda should he be posted or someone of the like. So a number 3 starter. And an under the radar signing of Sergio Romo.
Please no Sandoval.I dont wanna pay a DH that hits 17hrs 20mil a year.. and we all know Sandoval will be a dh in around 2 years
Physically you’d think so, but man did that guy surprise me with his athleticism this post season! For a guy of his size, Panda is an amazing defensive 3rd baseman.
Please no Sandoval.I dont wanna pay a DH that hits 17hrs 20mil a year.. and we all know Sandoval will be a dh in around 2 years
I rather have Sandoval than take my chances with Middlebrooks again also I don’t mind Headley only if they can’t get Sandoval. Panda is reliable in the playoffs and he made awesome plays at 3B in the postseason.
Again, this reflects that really despite people saying the Yankees will be in on players, they won’t be able to offer the $$$ that the Sox Sox Cubs will. Even if they were willing to spend freely why would anyone sign with the Yankees when they could be with the up and coming sox or cubs? The big 3 SP could realistically be split between just those two teams.
Players want to sign with the Yankees because they’re 2 seasons away from being competitive for the next 12 straight years. That said, the Yankees won’t sign one of the big FA pitchers (thank god). They will go for Headley, McCarthy, Robertson, and probably Drew to platoon. That right there is probably about $40m/year (Drew will be 1 year, McCarthy will get 3 years, and Headley/Robertson should get 4 years).
2 seasons away from being competitive for the next 12 years? man that’s a pretty bold claim considering their current roster composition of long-term, high-price players past their prime…I understand the 2 seasons away part but 12 years?
“Their current roster…” Yes, their current roster is bad. In 2 years, Teixeira and Beltran are gone. In 3 years, A-Rod and Sabathia are gone (Sabathia may be gone in 2 years depending on if his shoulder is hurt). In 2 years, most of their top prospects in the lower levels will be ready to contribute or just on the fringe. In 2 years, the extra spending money can be spent on younger and better choices (they clearly learned from their past mistakes and don’t seem to want to go higher than 7 years on anyone…and they’re only buying them through age 35 now). They will be competitive again very soon and will stay that way for a long time.
Your insane I’m sorry. No one that has a choice between yanks sox Dodgers or cubs is going Yankees. The team is going to be worse than the other 3 next year and you have to look at the situations. Automatically out on scherzer due to flyballs and atleast 25m aav, Lester because he’s going either cubs or sox 100%, Shields could be an option, but they won’t have money to sign anything else. If the Yankees miss on a lot of lower targets they may end up having to buy whoever’s left available after the cubs/sox spend. No one is picking the Yankees by choice.
I already stated the Yankees are out on Scherzer, Shields, and Lester, so I’m not sure who you’re arguing with. Scherzer and Lester are going to get franchise crippling contracts and Shields is too old and not that great. Yankees are too smart these days to make the same mistake of signing those types. That said, in 2-3 years the Yankees will be better (maybe even substantially better) than those 3 teams so you obviously don’t actually know what you’re talking about. And by the way, it’s spelled “you’re”.
If you’re going to say “Sox” on first reference, please identify Red or White. You annoying New Englanders think the world revolves around your team.
What’s funny is I’m a cubs fan from Chicago and went to lane tech. I only said sox because why should I need to clarify when the white sox have no intention of signing a big pitcher?
Bold prediction to say 2 last place clubs this year will be better than the Yankees. They can go on a spending spree but it don’t mean it will work out. Ask the Marlins, Angels and Blue Jays (and Yankees and Sox for that matter).
No one signs to be on a good team in 3 years. “Oh you’re gonna lose the next 2 years and maybe compete if the players in A and AA ball pan out compete then? Oh okay I didn’t wanna be a part of the crazy deep farm systems in Chicago and Boston anyway.”
People sign for the money. It’s not even dependent on the farm. That’s a bonus. Yankees will have only good contracts on the books in 2-3 years and have a willingness to spend to stay competitive which you do not get from the other teams. No one cares about a deep farm system. Any and all of them could bust. And when the other teams refuse to spend on the free agency, the player will be stuck with a losing team for 5-8 years. No one is willing to take that risk if a better choice is out there.
You think that Mccann and Ellsbury contract is going to look good after 3 years? They already look bad and it was just the first year
McCann had a bad year mainly due to bad luck and a lower BB% which is very easy to fix. His power numbers were right on line with his usual per ISO and wRC+, his LD% and GB% were roughly the same, and truthfully, I don’t care if McCann is bad in 3 years as he would be on the last 2 years of his contract anyway and moved to 1B which should help his bat out since his body won’t be as sore.
Ellsbury had a very good year and played up to his contract if you use the standard $6m = 1 WAR equation. And with inflation, 1 WAR will cost even more later on which makes his deal even more worth it. If his contract becomes bad, it won’t be until the final 2 years which is 4 seasons away from today.
Yeah but you just said they will have only good contracts on the books in 2 years, And the first year or two of the contract is usually the “best” years of the contract so you cant expect Ellsbury to put up a similar WAR in 3 years.
Sure I can. I don’t expect Ellsbury to regress until the final 2 years of the deal (ages 34 and 35). McCann might be a bad deal in 2 seasons from now, but the Yankees can afford to have literally just 1 bad contract on their books. It certainly won’t cripple them like having all of A-Rod, Sabathia, Teixeira, and Beltran.
The way I see it is this: if a team is going after a player when they have a deep farm, the team likely isn’t that high on the farm.
Why would you sign a guy to a 3-7 year deal if your farm is a year or two away unless you don’t have faith in that farm?
First off that’s a patently false way to look at things. You can think you have the best farm of all time, and you still always make good FA signings if the opportunity arises. It would not be smart at all to bank on your farm. Do you think the Cubs and/or Red Sox have a good farm? They certainly think so. But despite the fact that they believe they have a good farm, I bet you they will still spend a ton this off-season.
Lots of things can change in 2 years, so no one can really say if the Yankees will be competitive like he asserted. But as bad as the yankees have been the last couple of years, they have still been a winning team that has been in the playoff hunt. As bad contracts come off the books they will sign better players. For instance… Going into the 2017 offseason the contracts of Teixeira, Beltran will be off the books and Sabathia can be bought out. I wonder who is a free agent in 2017? Oh right… Stanton. Not to say the Yankees are a lock to sign him but you know they will be in on him.
Red Sox are not an up and coming team. Their prospects looked terrible with the exception of betts in a small sample. Holt also had a good start but fizzled down the stretch and the pitching was horrendous. I do agree that the cubs are up and coming though
Its not how much you spend, its how you spend it. Teams that try to buy championships rarely work if at all. 1997 Marlins is one that stands out along with some Yankees teams (which were built not by the big free agent signings but by their farm system). 2005 White Sox spent little, had a $72 million payroll, and was ESPN’s team of the decade.
You cannot buy championships so your post is irrelevant. However, you certainly can buy the best team in baseball. The best team rarely wins in the post-season since it’s all luck.
Exactly my point.
Buy the way for the record, I did say TRY to buy a championship. You have to be lucky. If the Cubs or Dodgers want to spend half of a billion in free agents, knock themselves out. Maybe they can watch the small market teams like the Royals, Cardinals, A’s, Pirates Orioles and Nationals in the post season again.
How about tank for a few years and then spend mucho on FAs? I think it might work.
The Marlins will disagree with that.
Spend the most money?
A team that isn’t very good with money and didn’t do well in the draft either.
That is who will spend it! =P
Red Sox are allergic to “dollars after age 30”, so it will NOT be them. They will go after Panda (who is 28)… but doubtful that go after Lester or Scherzer.
The Yankees, Tigers and Dodgers seem to have positioned themselves to be fiscally responsible.
The obvious answer is the Cubs. Surprised that the voting is not over 50% for them.
If the Red Sox don’t pick up A premier starter and more they will not be making the playoffs.
I don’t really think there’s enough available on the FA market to fix the Sox enough. They’d honestly be better just waiting it out a year.
I would agree but I think that is where they will use their plethora of outfielders. Swing a trade using one of the outfielders (possibly Cespedes although he has only one year of control) for a top of the rotation starter and sign Lester or Shields (fingers crossed for Lester). Id even shop Ceccihini out there and see what he can net them if they can sign Sandoval.
Ideally Id like to have Vasquez, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Sandoval, Castillo, Betts and Victorino. Nava, Craig, Holt is a solid bench too. Most people also overlook VIctorino who had a terrific 2013 and was injured all of 2014. If he can play like in 13′ the outfield should be solid. But I won’t deny that there is plenty of “ifs” on this team.
Signing Shields would be awful. He consistently shows that he can’t pitch in big games. Going to a big market would be a terrible decision for him.
Past that, not sure what the Sox can even get via trade. Even if Hamels is available, he’d cost an entire farm, tractors and all.
Hey I agree on Shields, I want no part of him but I find it hard to believe the Sox don’t sign one of the top starters on the market. I think Amaro will smarten up eventually and notice they aren’t going to compete next season and he needs to sell off some assets.
I saw Cecchini play a handful of times this year and even met him and I’m just not sold on him. Wouldn’t mind them shopping him.
If they shop Betts and Cespedes for a front line starter they could get one. And if they include Swihart, it would an amazing pitcher. Then they can sign Sheilds, which would make for a decent rotation. 1? 2. Shields 3. Bucholtz. 4. Kelly 5.Ruby, Webster, Raunado, Barnes, Owens, Johnson – one of those is bound to work haha
Have you watched Clay this past year? He was beyond awful, Id be scared slotting him higher than 4 and even that has me worried. Shields I don’t like because of his age and most likely will demand 5 years.
He is also only 1 year removed from being a top 5 pitcher. When he’s on, he’s about as unhittable as anyone. Granted, thats expecting a lot. But even last year, every red sox catcher said that Buch has the best “stuff” out of any pitcher they have caught. A 3rd spot in the rotation is perfectly fine. And I think the Red Sox could swing a 4 year deal with higher annual average. And they need innings. Sheilds always pitches 200 innings. If he does that we can save the bullpen a little, which is why almost every bullpen arm was worse this year.
The Yankees and fiscally responsible is an oxymoron.
In truth the Yankees are fiscally responsible. If they couldn’t turn a profit while outlaying all that money then they would be fiscally irresponsible.
Why would Sandoval choose the Bosox over Washington if the deals are similar? The Nats are younger, have fewer holes to fill and are in the league the Panda is comfortable with.
you guys are nuts thinking the Nationals are interested in Sandoval they just freed up some money because they have several of their homegrown players they will resign and Rendon at 3rd or 2nd is a true superstar yes that’s right a true superstar who will play in many league all star games.
the yankees have positioned themselves to be fiscally responsible before, but panicked and threw a bunch of money at free agents when they missed/had an early exit in the playoffs. and now they need a new face of the franchise.
If Yankees get Headley, McCarthy, Robertson, and Drew, they’d still be 3rd or 4th. Those are they types they will be going for…those players combine for about $40m per year (figuring $13m for Headley, $12m for McCarthy, $10m for Robertson due to the QO, and not very much at all for Drew).
QO is 15.3 M and he’s not likely to accept it.
Correct, instead he’ll take a lower AAV but over multiple years to act as security and to get more money overall.
Friedman’s Dodgers work will likely be a shrewd trade or two. Needs to clean up the margins and spend only as necessary.
Scherzer turned down the 144million deal from Detroit earlier. I know the Cubs and Red Sox can afford a higher contract than that, but are either of them really going to feel comfortable committing that kind of money to 1 player?
My answer for the Red Sox is “absolutely NOT”.
… For the Cubs, is maybe.
I think there is one team that will overpay for either Scherzer or Lester. However, the other guy will not get what he expects.
Scherzer will be a cub. It’s overblown how much epstein affects Lester. He won’t even interact with him much. He’d probably rather play for his old pitching coach and fans. If the cubs offer slightly more, or maybe even 15m more over the same length, he’s probably gonna be a sox based on his discount comments. If the size aren’t gonna pay Lester, no chance they pay scherzer. Scherzer can and will be paid. Likely by the cubs. And I’m entirely okay with that as a cubs fan. Hes self aware and has a strong approach and acceptance of new metrics. He knows how to take care of himself and will be a great investment even for the eventual 25-27 per year.
Red Sox will buy a top starter and Headley/Sandoval and Cubs will get another top starter and a top outfielder, but I went with the Red Sox. Look for the White Sox to spend about 40 mil on 2015 player salaries with their current payroll and market.
My vote was the Rangers…
2-3 SP – Depending on Perez’s TJ progress.
LF or RF – Which ever position Choo doesnt play.
Possibly 2 RP – Replacing Soria and Frasor with ML ready arms (unlike last year).
C – Starter or Back-up (if not both).
DH – Needs to be able to back-up 1B (Moreland is not the answer).
As a Rangers fan, I don’t think they’ll spend that much money. JD has repeatedly said the Rangers are on a budget, so don’t expect any big signings this off season.
For starting pitchers, they’ll resign Colby and fill the rest of the rotation with internal options like Tepesch, Mikolas, Bonilla, or Martinez. If they do go after another starter, it will be an inexpensive guy like Liriano.
Choo’s natural position is RF so he’ll probably start there next year. For left field, it’ll be a competition in spring training between Rua, Smolinski, and Choice.
The bullpen does need to be addressed but since the Rangers don’t like giving out multi-year deals to relievers, they’ll probably fill the holes by bringing a few relievers in on minor league deals or use internal options like Mendez, Patton, Klein, or Claudio
Chirinos is going to be the Rangers starting catcher next year. They’ll probably bring a catcher in on a minor league deal to compete with Telis for the back up spot.
DH could also be filled internally. Rua seems like the best choice as he plays first base and some outfield. I agree with you on Moreland. They should just non-tender him to free up pay roll.
Let me clarify – My vote was not based on who “WOULD” spend the money, rather than who “SHOULD” spend the money.
It does appear that Colby will be re-signed, and that would be okay if he was your 5th starter. Be he is not, and will be counted on to be the 3rd SP (at least until Perez returns). With an 5.18 ERA, 211 hits given up in 170 innings, and diminishing stuff, the outlook for Colby is dim. Tepesch, Mikolas, and Martinez are run of the mill/borderline major league starters. Bonilla has the stuff, but his walk rate is horrible. Quality depth is drastically needed… Ross, Ogando, Scheppers, Baker, Saunders, Poreda, Klien, Adcock, Williams, Figueroa, Rowen, Feierbend, Noesi, Germano, West, Rosin, Irwin,and McCutchen were horrible last year. The entire pitching staff is going to need a ton of help, if the Ranger’s are going to call themselves playoff contenders.
The OF does intrigue me. Rua and Smolinski played better than expectations. Choice, however was the total opposite (.182).
Catcher – Could not agree more. You can get by with Chirinos, even thou that might not be the most ideal situation.
Unless they spend the money, I am afraid this “playoff contender” will be playing for 4th (maybe even 5th in the AL West – depending how the Astro’s keep progressing). This team simply has too many holes to fill.
Colby pitched much better after the All-Star Break (3.98 ERA). Part of his poor performance at the beginning of the year was likely due to getting used to his new hip. Also, his 4.46 FIP shows that he pitched better than his ERA.
Regarding the bullpen, I agree, it does need work, but as I pointed out, the Rangers have shied away from multi year pacts for relievers so that immediately rules out options like Gregerson or Miller. Look for them sign people like Luke Hochevar or Matt Albers (buy low guys looking to rebuild value). IMO, they should just bite the bullet and sign Gregerson, who is perhaps the most consistent reliever in the majors right now, even if takes a multi year deal to get him.
Also, Tepesch and Martinez both pitched to a 3.81 and 3.90 ERA, respectively, over their last 10 starts so they can’t be considered unable to help just yet.
Pretty much comes down to where you think where Scherzer and Lester will land. Their (new) teams will probably finish first and second in offseason spending.
Lester with Bos
Scherzer with NYY
Sheilds with CHC
Switch Lester and Shields and you might be right. Scherzer is the one big name I can’t seem to think where he will go.
Maybe Tigers…. with the same deal he turned down.
I doubt that though because if he wanted that deal he would have signed it when he was offered it last year.
Q: So why did Nelson Cruz sign for much lower number that the QO? If Nelson “wanted that deal”, he would agreed to the Qualifying Offer. He dislikes the Rangers that much?
because he wanted a long term deal over multiple years not just 14m over 1
Nope. 80% of these free agent predictions are wrong. Just look back last year, almost everyone had Cano to NYY, Mccan to Bos, and Ellsbury to SEA
Boston need a top ace, Shields is hardly that and provides more of a risk (something boston doesn’t like to deal with)
Plus, Lester choices BOS over CHC any day
Nope he doesn’t, does he choose 100 million over 5 years or 150ish over 6 or 7 years. Because the Sox will offer right around 5 and 100.
No they have roughly 55mil aav to spend this year and have about 40mil aav coming off the books next year
Their biggest need is pitching and their chaiman has said they have bags of money to spend… literally
Lester 6/145mil from a team he played his whole career with, beat cancer with, and won 2 world series with is pretty damn hard to turn down, even if the Cubs over slighly more.
Plus Lester said, hes not going to the highest bidder
Mark my words, as long as Boston gives Lester a offer near market value, he goes there
He is just saying that because he wants to be the good guy in this scenario. And who in their right mind would turn down an extra 50 or 60 million guaranteed dollars. Yes they have that money to spend but who says they are actually going to use it. Look at the 2012 offseason they had roughly 200 million to spend and they only spent less than half of it and it won them a WS, which is why Lester is gone IMO. They saw, hey we just won a WS by bringing in players on short term deals that don’t pay that much money so lets keep using that method and it will work again this year. And how did that work out, they finished in last place and were one of the 10 worst teams in the league.
Lester knows what Boston is capable of… 3 world series championships in 10 years, and he was included in 2 of them
Chicago? is a question mark they haven’t won in 105 years and their a team relying on prospects
If Lester had a choice hed go to Boston
Boston has bags of money to spend and a HUGE need for pitching. Don’t be surprised and if they give Lester a crazy amount
And please don’t rely on bleacher report ‘prediction’ articles that all have Lester to CHC and Shields and Sandoval to BOS…
Arn’t these the same prediction articles that get nearly all their predictions WRONG? lol. last year EVERYONE was saying MCcan to BOS, Ellsbury to SEA, Cano to NYM… how did those predictions turn out?
Boston signs Lester and Headley
You sound very passionate buy you are wrong. The Red Sox have said that they want to start maxing their contracts at about 5 years so they don’t run into the same issue they ran into before with a ton of aging players earning high dollar contracts. That being said if the Sox were willing to blow past the 5 year 100 million dollar contract don’t you think that they wouldn’t have drawn a line in the sand with Lester during their extension talks? If a team seriously wants to resign a player they usually don’t trade them i.e. Koji. All this adds up telling me that they will not resign Lester. Sox will get Headly or Hanley and they will sign Shields.
Heres the thing. Shields is 2 years older and has a lot more innings on his arm. You give Shields a 5 years deal and pay him until hes 37 and you regret the last 2-3 years of the contract. You give lester a 6 or 7 year deal and pay him until hes 36 or 37, you regret the last 2-3 years of the contract. Same issue. Same risk. Lester would be much much more appreciated in RS nation over Shields and Lester s a better pitcher, he can handle the head of a staff, Shields is more a #2. At the same risk Lester makes 10x more sense for the Redsox. The only way I can see the Redsxo sign Sheilds is if he agrees to a 4 year deal, which is unlikley, even at a higher aav.
I think Shield’s deal will be similar to Lackey’s deal. But Boston will not go spend crazy on Lester. I think they max out at 115-120 mil. But again I don’t think they can sign him for that, otherwise they would have in the middle of the season. There’s no reason why you dont sign a player to a lower “team friendly deal” while he’s still with the team and then sign him at a higher market value a few months later
Maybe becuase they landed Cespedes?
The 2014 team was having power issues. Send away Lester get Cespedes then resign Lester. 2015=Lester AND Cespedes
Easy way to obtain a impact player and put yourself in a position to contend next year
IF that happens then yes thats fine. However, if they had the chance to sign Lester to a smaller contract and not have Cespedes they would do that. They could have allocated that saved money elsewhere to get another power bat
Lester no way Boston he burnt that bridge .Shields no way Boston they hate him no way that someone who played for Tampa will play in Boston they hate each other. Boston if they want to spend they can but trading players will be their first option. Many teams interested in some of their prospects. Free agent they will sign Andrew Miller and Nick Markaias.
Also 2 last place finishes and 6 years out of the playoffs in that same time span. Cubs offer a better chance at winning with a better overall roster, a new manager and a bigger long tern contract
How did the last years predictions go when everyone was saying Mccan to Boston, Cano to the Yankees, and Ellsbury to Seatle?
These offseason predictons are awful. Do you really think Boston will dump 200mil to a 33year old Shields and a fat 3rdbaeman who will be moved to dh sooner rather than later? nope
Boston signs Lester and Headley
How did the last years predictions go when everyone was saying Mccan to Boston, Cano to the Yankees, and Ellsbury to Seatle?
These offseason predictons are awful. Do you really think Boston will dump 200mil to a 33year old Shields and a 3rdbaeman who will be moved to dh sooner rather than later? nope
Boston signs Lester and Headley
Lester burnt that Boston bridge no way he ever ends up back in Boston.
LOL, Boston lowballed him to get Cespedes. Now they can offer him something legit. Thr firdt team Lester wasnt to come to is Boston
Lester has NOT played his whole career with the Red Sox. He pitched for the A’s when they traded him so the luster of spending your whole career with one team no longer applies.
Yanks won’t go after Scherzer because of his high rate of fly balls. Fly balls that were outs in Detroit are homeruns in the RF short porch at Yankee Stadium.
Do the Cubs have the money for BOTH Lester and Scherzer? not that familiar with their money situation but heard they are spending big this offseason
I don’t think they have enough to sign both because I think they are putting some money into renovating the park and we all know that to owners all the money comes from the same place.
Plus there might some upside to less expensive lower tier (but capable) pitchers (i.e. Shields and Peavy).
I think they do, in fact, I think they have enough to get more than that. They have tv money coming shortly and they spent nothing last year. Plus they have advertising money at the park coming this year. They will certainly spend and spend heavily this offseason. I wouldn’t count them out on anyone or even multiple FAs.
I question the Cubs willingness to pay all the time. They’ll go big for someone like Anibal Sanchez for $80 million/5 years (though missed out to the Tigers), but I do not know if they will go big for someone like Lester or Scherzer.
They are going to have go big at some point if they want to be competitive. Nobody in FA really wants to go to the Cubs because they are unwiling to spend.
Headley is probably rubbing his hands as Boston and New York play tug of war over him
I feel like New York will get outbid for Headley. How can one justify paying him say $50 million for four years when you have A-Rod on the payroll for the next three years? I like Headley, but to tie up $50 million to a backup for A-Rod is too much. They should go after someone like Mark Reynolds (again) or Kelly Johnson (again) in case it all goes south from here.
Better to get a legit 2nd baseman.
Detroit needs to sign VMART and not break the bank. Yankees could get Kinsler for just his salary and a mid level prospect (Contract: 3 more years, $46MM).
Headley won’t back up A-Rod. He will start at 3B and A-Rod at DH backing up headley now and then
I would have like to see the question worded differently. Total spend is probably going to be determined by who signs the big pitching names. I’m more interested in aggregate AAV. Which teams are going to use their resources to purchase several players for high seven and eight figure per year contracts? Other than the Astros and Marlins, of course.
Cubs for sure. I see them, at the very least, getting Lester and Martin. They might go after another pitcher like Peavy or Volquez and an outfielder as well.
Agreed. Martin would mean a lot to the club house and the rotation is far from competing against top tier. Scherzer could also be in play. Too bad Price isn’t available. Bet he would like to play at Wrigley with Maddon.
I went with the cub I’m assuming two top tier starting pitchers and will exceed 200 million in guaranteed contracts this off-season, a few teams may top 180 million in guaranteed contracts but the cubs will be the leaders.
Lol how did 14 people vote for the rockies
It’s 5 o’clock somewhere
Nah. Not 5 o’clock. Just 4:20.
Well played sir
Do you think it will ever be possible for people to vote in one of these polls realistically and not view the question as “who is your favourite team”?
Looking at these results, one suspects not.
What about the results gives you the impression that people are voting for their favorite team?
I think youre being sarcastic, but ill humor you anyway.
The fact that (so far) a combined 333 people think that either the Rockies, Indians, D’Backs, Nats, Brewers, Padres, Royals, A’s, Marlins and most laughably, the Rays, are going to spend the most $$$ on free agents in all of baseball.
Yeah, it could be that.
Sure some people will vote for their favorite teams, but the majority of voters were being realistic.
Many, many hundreds werent, which was my point.
If you arent going to vote properly, i dont see the point, but thats just my opinion.
I suppose the Rays could blow $300m on Scherzer and Lester just to spite me, but i have my doubts on it happening.
They might do that and move their franchise to Montreal or something.
It’s going to be a hoot when no one good takes Boston’s money. I’m hoping for Scherzer to go to Miami (yeah, I know.. not happening), Lester goes to 1) Cubs or 2) Seattle, Shields stays in KC, Pablo stays in SF and that’s the big 4 that Boston really needs.
Lester to the M’s? Doubtful, do they even have the money?
The M’s bought their local TV network. Their TV revenue is going from about $45M in 2014 to about $115M in 2015. You tell me if they have the money. I see them going hard after Tomas and Lester.
You have to remember that Lester is from Tahoma, WA – 45 minutes away from Seattle. If the Mariner’s are able to pay him somewhere close to the highest bidder, I can see him easily taken up residency back in his home state.
Miami is capable of signing a free agent to a low upfront salary and then trading them before they get expensive. Bhuerle/Reyes.
Miami had a good run before Fernandez went down. They have a ton of young cheap talent they can afford a Scherzer or Lester. With Fernandez back and adding Scherzer, they could make a run at the NL East next year. They need a good 3rd baseman, too. Wonder if they resign McGehee.
My question is who voted for teams like the Marlins?
Their handful of fans 🙂
Whoever signs Lester or Scherzer will be signing onto the largest offseason contract. However, let’s say the Red Sox do not bring Lester back but brings in McCarthy, Liriano, Headley, and a bullpen arm. That could easily top more than $40 million in annual value – about equal in total value.
Boston will not bring Lester back.
The Nationals won’t spend a huge amount, but will pursue a few things they need to put them over the top. Don’t be surprised to see them be a stealthy candidate for Pablo Sandoval, since they could move Anthony Rendon to second and Ryan Zimmerman to first. (It’s assumed that Adam LaRoche will not be re-signed, and Asdrubal Cabrera will leave Washington to become a SS somewhere else.) The Nats can fill most of their other holes from within.
Nats cant afford to spend on Pablo they need to ink Desmond and Jordan Zimmerman to long term deals they need to do that now.3rd base will not be a problem.
I voted Rox for comedy value. Not sure why the other 28 people did.
Seeing that the cubs have theo. A guy know for throwing his checkbook at players, they get my vote.
Red Sox and Cubs and maybe the Yanks are all going to land one of the big three starting free agent pitchers that are available (Lester, Scherzer and Shields). Those three teams right there will be in the top of the pack just by inking these starting pitchers to their bloated contracts.
Once those three are signed the Cubs won’t be done. They still need another starter so they’ll ink one of the mid range pitchers at about $15 million a year over 3 or 4 years. Throw in a couple of veteran free agent signs to fill out the roster and the Cubs will spend the most this off season. They have the most money to spend and a new manager on board.
If this includes resigning your own free agents then I think the cubs will have the most expensive off season signing 2 pitchers I believe they will sign Lester and peavy. I think the Red Sox will also be big spenders right behind them. Then the Yankees. I think the dodgers will be looking at a few players also rounded out by the tigers
I cannot believe the Twins got 154 votes, as of now. Hope springs eternal.