In his recent free agent profile of Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained that a variety of strategic moves could have significant bearing on both where he ends up and what kind of contract he might play under in 2015 and, potentially, beyond. As Tim explains, the veteran still holds plenty of appeal both in Milwaukee and the rest of the league, especially for clubs that prefer a shorter-term obligation from a consistently productive player. And the way things shake out with Ramirez could have widespread implications for player movement elsewhere.
So, let’s look at the decision tree that will have such an important role in determining Ramirez’s future. First, there is a $14MM mutual option ($4MM buyout) to consider. If Milwaukee decides it’s just too much money and pays the buyout, Ramirez would enter the market free and clear. If the club exercises its end, Ramirez could either take that payday or release that bird in hand and try the market.
In the latter scenario, the Brewers could still make him a qualifying offer, which would present another binary decision for Ramirez. Declining the QO, of course, would saddle him with draft compensation in free agency. If he goes that route, a new destination is possible, though, as we’ve seen in recent years, some players that test the market after declining a qualifying offer return to their prior teams.
Oh, and there’s one more possibility: Ramirez and the Brewers could essentially bypass this series of decisions entirely by agreeing to a multi-year extension at the outset (or at any point along the way).
This kind of situation is more or less what we live for here at MLBTR. Tim has already gone on record with his expectations, and it’s time that our readers did the same. (I won’t ask you to try to decide what Ramirez would do if he reaches free agency.)
LazerTown
Can’t see them agreeing to the mutual option. He had a good enough year. If he declines then he either enters the market with no draft pick, or he gets offered the QO at a higher salary.
Stonehands
I think there is a chance it gets accepted honestly. If he doesn’t exercise his half doesn’t he lose the $4mil buyout? Milwaukee may exercise it cause it’s basically a 1/10 deal if I understood it correctly
LazerTown
Milwaukee will exercise their end, if he turns it down he would be looking at a $15.3MM QO which is better than that $14MM, or he would be unrestricted free agent.
Revery
I think this may be the odd case where a mutual gets exercised. The 4M buyout is substantial, Ramirez won’t just want to walk away. A one year contract under the QO in total dollars has to be interesting to the Brewers. And there is no way they’d take the risk of a QO after a buyout, which potentially equals 19.3M for next year.
RascalTrain
If Brewers accept and Ramirez declines the buyout is gone. It has been confirmed that they would not have to pay it.
Revery
Thanks for the update.
chcu
For some reason, I think he would be perfect for the M’s.
Doesn’t have to play 3B everyday and would be productive in the middle of that lineup.
DarthMurph
He wouldn’t play 3B any day. Kyle Seager is one the league’s most productive players.
dwarfstar
Good morning Rev, how are you today?
DarthMurph
I am fine, thank you for asking. How are you?
dwarfstar
Good, the poll is kind of confusing cause more than one thing could actually happen..
Jeff Todd
Each of those outcomes is mutually exclusive, no? I didn’t write out the full scenarios, but he can’t, say, accept the QO if the mutual option has already passed without being exercised by both sides.
I mean, I guess he could agree to an extension after agreeing to the option or QO, but the question is really what comes first.
dwarfstar
Brewers decline option and pay buy out..
Jeff Todd
Those things go together. If they decline the option, they have to pay the buyout. I just added mention to the buyout part for reference.
dwarfstar
While I could see him leaving, it will not be to the Mariners. There will be a lot of variables in this one..
chcu
Yeah Seager is awesome. But can’t he be tried out at Short?
Also Aramis isn’t getting younger. A reduced fielding role would help.
But that might not be attractive to him, but the M’s also have money to spend so that might remedy that.
Jeff Todd
If he were capable of playing a passable short, he’d have done so earlier in his career. Looks like he saw 41 games there in the minors; that indicates that the organization never thought he had any hope of being a big league SS.
dwarfstar
That and he has only had 10 games at short at the mlb level and they will not displace Cano at 2b, they could move him to the O/F where they could use some help, but he could be a fish out of water there as well..
Jeff Todd
Realistically, he’s a really good third baseman and isn’t going to move from that spot until he can’t handle it anymore.
docmilo5
Tried out at SS? The M’s have 2 very nice SSs on the MLB roster right now in Miller and Taylor. I read an article on projections by position last week and they had Miller as the 2nd best SS in baseball by WAR. Miller posted a .792 OPS in the 2nd half this year. Granted, he was platooned. Thing is, Miller never really has had issues hitting lefties.
dwarfstar
You actually see him leaving the Brewers?
docmilo5
He would be a DH in Seattle. I’m not sure if he likes that or the money that goes along with being a DH. Milwaukee has nothing in it’s minor league cupboards. They need to resign him for at least 2 years and an option is my guess.
daveineg
Milwaukee will have money to spend if he doesn’t return. Cupboard isn’t as bare as you think either. Jason Rogers put up a .947 OPS in 57 at AAA playing exclusively 3B in 2014 and Rogers was Brewer’s minor league player of the year in 2013.
docmilo5
Good luck to them if Rogers has a break out. I always like to see young unheralded kids break thru. A .947 OPS in the PCL can be a bit misleading at times. The M’s traded for Treyvon Robinson from LA when he was OPSing .938 in 100 games for Albequerque in 2011. It didn’t translate well. The PCL has a long history like the Cal League of guys putting up serious numbers that don’t follow the players.
daveineg
He played in Nashville in the PCL’s South Division. There’s not nearly the inflated offensive stats there as there is in PCL West. Every team in that division was below league average in runs scored. Nashville scored the fewest runs and had the best ERA.
That’s not to say he’s a prime prospect or that the Brewers wouldn’t seek out someone else to replace Ramirez, but Milwaukee’s had it’s share of under the radar prospects do quite well in recent years. I’m just refuting the “cupboard is bare” argument. The Brewers have both money to spend on someone other than Ramirez and they have at least one viable internal candidate.
daveineg
If you like a guy who’ll hit into about 25 double plays, hit maybe 10 HR and walk about 20 times, then go ahead and pay him.
RascalTrain
.285 BA ranked 4th of all 3rd baseman
8th in OPS
Struck out at one of the lowest clips
But yah lets just point out the negatives and make them a lot worse than they are. He hit into 18DPs well lower than 25 and hit 15 homers which is quite a bit better than “maybe 10”.
daveineg
Didn’t produce (4HR and 26 RBI) from June 27th on. If there was ever a sign that he’s nearly done, that’s it.
dwarfstar
You could also see a buy out of his contract for the 4mm, then see them come to terms on a lower aav contract. My opinion is that the Brewers pay the 4mm then come to term on a new 2/20mm with a 3rd year option…
Jeff Todd
If the option is bought out, he becomes a free agent. As I said, I’m not asking about what happens in free agency. But that is one route to get there.
He could of course reach that kind of deal via extension, but that would come before declining the option.
And it really does not make sense for the Brewers to pay him $4MM and then try to sign him to that kind of deal. They’d explore the multi-year scenario before the option decision comes due (like, now) and then decide what to do.
dwarfstar
True, there are going to be a lot of variables on this one..
stl_cards16
If they’re going to pay $24MM for 2 years, why not just exercise the option and not leave Ramirez the chance of finding a bigger deal with no pick attached to him?
DarthMurph
If batted lefty, the Sox would be all over him. The Brewers will not want to let him go after their collapse, but he’ll be an attractive option for many teams if he hits free agency, especially if Headley is asking for a big deal like the one Dierkes predicted.
dwarfstar
Definitely do not see Headley getting the deal Dierks predicts..
daveineg
Ramirez was a huge reason for the collapse RevMurph, and at his age a rebound seems unlikely. Brewer collapse started in game 132 in San Diego and lasted the final 31 games of the year. In that time Ramirez hit .209 with 1 HR and just 5 RBI.
RascalTrain
The whole team was why they collapsed….are you going to throw them all out?
mrnatewalter
Well, the article is about Aramis Ramirez.
Relax.
karkat
There’s no reason for Ramirez to exercise his side of the option.
If the team declines theirs, then he gets a $4MM payout and is a free agent without any restrictions and can get a multiyear deal.
If the team acts on theirs and Ramirez declines, either he ends up as an unrestricted FA (minus the $4mil) or he gets a superior one-year offer from the team, which they’d almost definitely make if they were willing to take the offer. So if he’s willing to take a one-year deal, why not hold out for the slightly better one?
dwarfstar
There will not be a better offer than QO if the Brewers go that route, and in my opinion if the Brewers go that route he would be a fool to decline that offer..
DCF
Ramirez would be getting $14MM with the option, the $4MM is the Brewer’s buyout, so basically Milwakee has to decide if Ramirez is worth $10MM. Still, the QO for next year is over $15MM so Ramirez still would be better off not exercising his side of the option.
dwarfstar
That’s one of the things I was trying to say below. They do the buy out then come to terms on a new deal. Both sides take option costs them 14 against payroll if they but out then sign a 10mm deal he still gets his 14 but only costs team 10 against payroll..
stl_cards16
I think he would have to exercise his side of the mutual option for the Brewers to have to pay the $4MM for declining. I could very well be wrong, though.
karkat
As I understand it, the team makes the decision first, so if they decline their side then it’s moot and Ramirez gets the buyout. He only has to make a decision if the Brewers exercise their side of it first.
stl_cards16
I guess that would make the most sense.
Jeff Todd
I believe this is right, though presumably any particular contract could modify that. May be a point to look into.
Rally Weimaraner
The Brewers definitely should exercise their side of the option, they will not be able to replace Ramirez offensive production for 10 Million or less (the net savings after paying the buyout).
daveineg
From game 82 to 162 (exactly half a season), Ramirez’ “production” was 4 HR and 26 RBI.
I’m sure they could find that for a lot less.
slasher016 2
I was under the impression even if a player declines his half of a mutual option (and the team exercises theirs) that the player still gets the buyout. I swore there was another case like this last offseason where that scenario played out.
Eric 23
It depends on the specific contract.
daveineg
I can’t believe the value being put on Ramirez and I’m a Brewer fan. His OPS declined every year in Milwaukee. He’s a double play machine. He never was fast, but now he basically jogs fearing muscle pulls. He almost never takes a walk. When he does hit, it’s extremely streaky, and his power is way, way down. He’s still decent defensively though with less range than in the past. He was completely MIA as Brewer season went down the drain the last 6 weeks. Brewers will probably risk the extra $10 million by picking up their side of the option, but if Ramirez turns down his side, the Brewers will quietly be celebrating not having to pay the buyout and letting him go. No way they give him a QO because no team is going to give up a draft pick to sign him, and they’d be foolish to risk $15+ million they don’t have to.
RascalTrain
The value is due to the fact that the possible replacements internally are not promising. Jason Rogers may have nice PCL stats but putting an unproven player with what seems to be horrible defense at 3B sounds a whole lot like 1B last year.
daveineg
So that means you overpay a guy who’s performance in the 2nd half is a good indication he’s basically done and who produced nothing as the team faltered down the stretch? They’ll find somebody to play 3B and while he may not produce the overall season numbers Ramirez did in 2014 thanks to his good first half, chances are he’ll produce close to what Ramirez is capable of now and for a lot less.
As for Rogers defense being horrible. What is that based on exactly? An assumption on your part? He was learning the position last year and had a fielding percentage of .938. Really that’s not all that bad for not having played there before. Ramirez’ fielding percentages his first 6 seasons were: .941, .930, .917, .945, .946.
Mark Reynolds career fielding percentage is .930
RascalTrain
Why does Ramirez’s fielding percentage his first 6 seasons matter? Why does Mark Reynolds matter? The point is if Rogers can’t hit he has major negative value. He isn’t like Jean Segura where you can say, “Well at least he has some nice defense.”
Also I will admit I am assuming on his defense. But with 21 errors last year(120games) and weighing in at 250pounds I doubt he offers anything positive. I
Federal League
I think for Milwaukee, the best scenarios are the ones that result in a one year contract.
S'wade Brendamule
Money is king, but it should be noted that he genuinely likes playing for/in Milwaukee & if he can at all help it, he’s not going to leave unless the team drops him. I think they’re going to look at a short extension for him. As a Brewers fan, I wish he displayed a little more passion & fire on the field, but those familiar with the clubhouse say he’s a good, veteran leader. I’d prefer to keep him, at least one more year, with Rogers (Can Clark play 3rd, too?) as a backup/understudy.
bdpecore
Anything over 2 years and $24M is too much in my opinion for an aging third baseman. The Brewers would be better off signing Headley to the four year deal like Tim suggested. this would shore up third base, a position the Brewers have no clear cut replacement available in the minors, through 2018.
RascalTrain
4 years and 40mil for Chase Headley…umm no I think I will pass on that impending disaster.
bdpecore
Going from A-Ram to Headley will definitely lose you some offense but his defense is bordering elite which is something the Brewers lack in their infield. His defensive value alone is worth quite a bit. Over the last two “down” seasons Fangraphs values him at 8.0 WAR while Baseball Reference pegs him for 7.3 WAR. Either way he offers enough value to justify a $12M AAV.