Fresh off the largest signing in franchise history — and the third largest in MLB history — the Mariners came within one game of a Wild Card playoff berth. They’ll look to improve upon their 87 wins and set their sights closer to the top of the division in the coming offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Robinson Cano, 2B: $216MM through 2023
- Felix Hernandez, RHP: $128MM through 2019
- Fernando Rodney, RHP: $7MM through 2015
- Willie Bloomquist, INF/OF: $3MM through 2015
- Danny Hultzen, LHP: $1.7MM through 2015 (signed MLB deal out of 2011 draft)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Austin Jackson, OF (5.000): $8MM projected salary
- Michael Saunders, OF (4.138): $2.9MM
- Justin Smoak, 1B (4.113): $3MM (arb-eligible if option is declined)
- Logan Morrison, 1B (4.069): $2.6MM
- Charlie Furbush, LHP (3.121): $1MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP (3.091): $2.1MM
- Dustin Ackley, OF (3.087): $2.8MM
- Kyle Seager, 3B (3.085): $5MM
Options
- Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP: $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Justin Smoak, 1B: $3.65MM club option with $150K buyout (arb-eligible if bought out)
Free Agents
The Mariners stayed in the playoff hunt until the very last day of the season, which is more credit than many pundits gave them at the onset of the 2014 campaign. The strong showing led to an extension for general manager Jack Zduriencik this summer. While the exact length of the extension is unknown, it runs through at least 2016, as it was announced as a multi-year deal.
Zduriencik will have more to work with from a financial standpoint in the 2015 season, as team president Kevin Mather recently explained in a candid interview on 710 ESPN in Seattle. The Mariners, Mather explained, overshot their allotted player personnel budget by nearly $16MM in 2014. However, ownership had no complaints after seeing the team’s strong performance. Rather than asking how the $16MM would be recouped, they instead asked Mather how the team was going to get six more wins in 2015. The Mariners topped the two-million mark in attendance for the first time since 2010, leading Mather to definitively conclude, “…the answer to that question is ’yes,'” when asked if payroll would increase.
It makes sense for the M’s to bulk up their spending in 2015 for a number of reasons. In addition to their near-miss of the postseason this year, next season marks the final year of team control over co-ace Hisashi Iwakuma. His $7MM salary is a bargain for the team and allows them to offer a formidable one-two punch that they’re not guaranteed to replicate in 2016. Additionally, Robinson Cano will play next season at age 32, and Felix Hernandez will play it at 29. While each may still have some prime years left, they’re nearing the point where it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some decline. Next year also marks Jackson’s final year of team control before hitting the open market.
The potential departures of Jackson and Iwakuma, paired with the waning primes of Cano and (to a lesser extent) Hernandez give Zduriencik plenty of motivation to be aggressive, and the Mariners will likely aim to do so by augmenting an offense that again struggled to put runs on the board, albeit not as badly as in years past. Seattle hit .244/.300/.376 as a team, good for a 93 wRC+ mark, which ranked 19th in the Majors. Their 634 runs scored tied them with the Red Sox for 18th in the Majors and 10th in the American League. At an end-of-season press conference, manager Lloyd McClendon voiced a desire to add a pair of bats to the middle of the order for 2015.
The question, then, is: where can Seattle add offense? Cano is entrenched at second base, and Kyle Seager has emerged as one of the game’s best two-way third basemen. Jackson will man center field, and Dustin Ackley seems ticketed for left field duty after hitting .274/.313/.463 from July 1 through season’s end. First baseman (and occasional corner outfielder) Logan Morrison put together a similar hot streak, slashing .284/.334/.447 over his final 79 games. While Ackley and Morrison aren’t as locked in as Cano, Seager and Jackson, I’d imagine other positions are perceived as bigger areas of need.
Perhaps the clearest weakness was in the team’s DH slot. Seattle designated hitters batted a woeful .206/.276/.335 in 2014 — marks that topped only the Indians in terms of production. They’ve already been connected to Victor Martinez, who would give them a strong middle-of-the-order presence but also come at a likely exorbitant price, as he seems destined to top Carlos Beltran’s three-year, $45MM contract. The team could also rekindle its interest in Nelson Cruz in the wake of his 40-homer season with Baltimore. Cruz is best-deployed as a DH himself, so it seems unlikely that the M’s would pursue both him and Martinez. A third name to consider, should his option be bought out, is Billy Butler. He’s coming off a down season with the Royals, but he’s been connected to the Mariners many times in recent years and could likely be had at a modest price. That would give the team the chance to upgrade more significantly elsewhere.
Melky Cabrera’s name is one worth keeping an eye on as well. The switch-hitter is said to be close friends with Cano and represents one of the top corner bats on the market. Though he’s played primarily left field in his career, his defensive marks in an admittedly small 625-inning sample in right are respectable, and his arm has typically graded well, per UZR and DRS. The Mariners are also said to be one of the front-runners for Yasmany Tomas, whose reported 70-grade power would certainly fit into the lineup.
Behind the plate, Mike Zunino’s .199 average and .254 OBP look like areas for upgrade, but they’re accompanied by a .404 slugging percentage and 22 homers. Zunino’s .205 ISO (slugging minus average) ranked third among catchers with at least 100 PA and 23rd in all of baseball among players with at least 450 PA. He also grades out as one of the very best pitch-framers in baseball and caught 28 percent of base-stealers. Catcher is unlikely to be a priority.
The other hole in the lineup comes at shortstop, where the Mariners combined to hit .239/.295/.344. Each of those collective rate stats ranked in the bottom-third of the league, and their collective wRC+ of 83 ranked 20th. Brad Miller took a step back at the plate, but his solid defensive work still left him as a roughly two-win player in a full-time capacity. Call-up Chris Taylor looked sound late in the season, hitting .287/.347/.346, but that production was propped up by an unsustainable .398 average on balls in play.
If the Mariners are not comfortable letting Miller and Taylor battle it out this spring, they could conceivably look for a veteran. Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew are each on the market, but none of the three are a clear upgrade at short. Lowrie and Cabrera have defensive question marks (Seattle shortstops did field quite well in 2014), and Drew’s bat is a wild card. One all-in possibility would be a pursuit of Hanley Ramirez, whose bat would be an unequivocal upgrade to the Mariners’ lineup. However, doing so would also mean that the M’s would need to put up with Ramirez’s poor defense, and they’d need to commit to him well into the future on a likely five-year commitment, if not more. There wouldn’t be a possibility of moving him to third anytime soon, either, with Seager looking very much like a cornerstone player.
A long-term commitment is something the Mariners are well-positioned to tackle, though. Seattle has just two players — Cano and Hernandez — on guaranteed contracts beyond the 2015 season. While the annual commitment on each of those contracts is enormous, it does allow Seattle the luxury of adding another significant AAV to the mix, especially if payroll is going to continue increasing after this season’s eventual mark of $107MM.
Of course, they could look to the rotation to spend if there is again a difficulty in luring free agent hitters to Safeco Field. It may not be a necessity for the team, but some additional certainty could be a benefit. Hernandez and Iwakuma form one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball, and that duo figures to be backed up by a pair of highly touted young arms in James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. Roenis Elias seems a capable fifth starter, and there’s been talk of moving Tom Wilhelmsen to the rotation as well. However, the team could rekindle the interest it showed in Ervin Santana last offseason, and names like Brandon McCarthy and Francisco Liriano represent mid-tier options with high ceilings.
The bullpen isn’t necessarily a significant need either, but it could be an area for Zduriencik to make an addition. Fernando Rodney will again own the ninth inning. Danny Farquhar has emerged as a bullpen weapon over the past two seasons and will be joined by standout rookie Dominic Leone in bridging the gap to Rodney. Additionally, a move to the bullpen appears to have ignited Brandon Maurer’s career, as the struggling starter became a lights-out reliever upon making the switch (2.17 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings). Charlie Furbush represents a strong option from the left side, though the club could look to add a second bullpen piece with Joe Beimel departing. Beimel has said he’d like to return, but names like Neal Cotts, Zach Duke and Joe Thatcher are also on the market, to say nothing of the electric Andrew Miller. There’s also room for perhaps a veteran right-handed addition. Pat Neshek and Jason Grilli are attractive setup options, while Luke Hochevar and Kyuji Fujikawa present high-upside options that come with a bit of risk, as neither is all that far removed from Tommy John surgery.
One final thing to consider for the M’s will be whether it’s time to move on from some players that were formerly believed to be core components. The team does have a number of trade and non-tender candidates, with Justin Smoak certainly being one. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times recently wrote that it’s a near certainty that Smoak’s option will be bought out and the first baseman will be non-tendered, though it’s possible that Zduriencik will try to gauge his trade value first. Even if he’s able to move Smoak, the return would be meager at best.
Jesus Montero, too, could be on thin ice with the organization. The catcher-turned-DH/first baseman did hit well in 97 Triple-A games this season, but his conditioning has been questioned in the past and he finished the season on the suspended list after getting into a bizarre altercation with a since-fired scout. Once touted by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN as one of baseball’s top prospects, Montero’s star has dimmed considerably. Another club may have interest, but again, the return on a trade would be a letdown.
Finally there is the case of Michael Saunders. The outfielder’s agent, Michael McCann, recently expressed disappointment in the Mariners organization after Zduriencik made a comment at the end-of-season press conference that McCann felt called his client’s work ethic into question. Zduriencik clarified shortly after that his message — which urged Saunders to reassess his offseason maintenance to better prepare himself to stay healthy for a full season — was a general message that could be applied to any young player. Zduriencik said the organization is not giving up on Saunders, but with McCann expressing frustration on his client’s behalf, it’s worth wondering if a change of scenery will be explored for Saunders — especially if Seattle does add a right field bat.
Certainly, Saunders would be appealing to other teams with outfield needs. Though he’s battled shoulder and oblique injuries in recent years, he’s also batted .248/.320/.423 with 39 homers and 38 steals over the past three seasons (349 games). The Mets, White Sox, Giants, Phillies and Reds are just a few teams I can envision as fits, if Seattle adds a corner bat and decides to market him. One possibility would be to double-down on a current strength by packaging Saunders with a young, MLB-ready rotation piece for Johnny Cueto, whose name has frequented the rumor mill of late.
Ultimately, Seattle seems like a good bet to make a significant addition — if not two or three — between the end of the World Series and Opening Day 2015. The team has plenty of long-term flexibility and an ownership group that is willing to increase payroll to surpass 2014’s total of 87 wins. That’s a recipe for an aggressive approach, so don’t be surprised to see the team connected to some of the top names on the free agent and trade markets this offseason as it looks to end a 13-year playoff drought.
What if a team doesn’t want too pay an Arbitration Raise, in the player last year of Arbitration….Does that player become an Free Agent???…Example…David Price
They can choose not to tender that player a contract (referred to as a “non-tender”) and allow him to hit free agency, yes. In Price’s example, the Tigers will certainly pay him whatever his salary ends up at, however.
I should also add that a player can be non-tendered any year he is arbitration-eligible. It doesn’t have to be in his final year. If a player is non-tendered the first time he’s arb-eligible, however, and signs a one-year deal with his new club, he would still need to reach six years of MLB service to become a free agent again. Or he could be non-tendered by his next team, of course. Point being, the arbitration process repeats itself until a player accrues six years of Major League service time.
Thank-you very helpful info……
Smoak is a strong candidate for being non-tendered.
Definitely. I’d be shocked if he was in Seattle next year.
No way Seattle offers Arb on Smoak. He’ll be non-tendered.
Yes, the team has an option of declining any of the arbitration years and at that point the player will be non-tendered and a FA (I don’t know if they player will go through waivers first or not however).
No waivers. Just become a free agent.
Time to finally give up on Smoak!
Gotta go, part of what would improve the Mariners is getting rid of replacement level players and bringing in some guys who would just add positive value. They need to pay attention to that and they will grab 2-4 wins as a result. When you sign Bloomquist to a 2 year deal you end up carrying him on your roster.
I see Bloomie as having positive value. At .273/.319/.346 he is a dependable part-time bat who did contribute a number of clutch hits. And with the ability to play strong defense at every position(P or C?) as his fielding stats demonstrate, he is added value to the M’s. Few players can hit as well as Willie with irregular AB’s.
Bloomquist is a replacement level guy…….offensively and defensively. Playing him more would only expose him more. He’s not a big financial commitment but paying him is stupid when you can get the same level of production for cheaper straight of the Triple A roster. The difference between Bloomquist and a guy like Punto is that Punto can play good defense in the infield. Bloomquist can stand at SS and 2B but is not good. Look at his career defensive stats and his career WAR.
So who is this AAA player that can play every position except P and C. Willie is a career utility player with with lifetime FP at every position except 3B(.956) above .975. In an injury shortened 2014 he had a FP of 1.000 at 7 positions while hitting .278. Comparing to Punto, their FP #’s are very similar however, Punto hit an anemic .207 in 2014 with a lifetime BA of .245. So, Bloomie’s defensive numbers stand-up in comparison to Punto and offensively Willie has been consistently better than Punto. Maybe there are other stats besides the word “stupid” that would further support your position. Bloomquist was acquired as a utility player–temporary replacement to rest or replace a regular or injured player. Not saying there aren’t players more qualified, but Punto sure isn’t it, so maybe name a few of provide info to support your claim. Oh yeah, who is this AAA player you claim can fill the utility role?
Yeah I’m not a huge fan of Fielding percentage alone. Punto has had about 3,700 plate Appearaces with a career rWAR of 15. Bloomquist is at about 3,000 plate appearances with a career rWAR of 2. They are about the same offensively with Punto holding a huge lead defensively. fWAR tells a similar story.
I typically am conservative on longterm contracts to aging players but the one guy I would go longer than most are projecting is Victor Martinez. If it took 4yrs/$60M to get him to sign, I’d do it. You figure you should get at least two very good years out of that deal and the type of hitter he is, I’d think the last two years would be better than what we’ve been getting from DH…even if he were to decline some.
VMart missed 2012 due to injury then OPSd .785 in 2013 and .974 in 2014. At 36 I would expect to see something between those 2 next year. Seeing a career high OPS at the age of 35 makes me suspicious. One reason I wish Adderall exemptions had to be made public. Chris Davis anyone?
I like VMart and would love to see him in Seattle. I would like to see him on a 2 year deal with an option for year 3. Pay more $/yr and less years. Peterson and Kivlehan aren’t too far away. I think Montero can give more production at DH than what we got from the position last year. We don’t need to improve DH that much to get better. It just doesn’t need to be the Hart/Morales black hole that it was this year.
Save the $$ to extend Seager for 5 to 6 years and pay for the other kids as they get deeper into arbitration. Also, Iwakuma is on an option year. If he gives the M’s 220 IP next year, he’s going to cost $17M to $20M a year going forward. I would like to see the M’s rework Kuma’s deal if they think he’s good for another 2 to 3 years.
Felix
Kuma
Paxton
Walker
Hultzen/Elias
That’s a pretty mean rotation for the next 3 years.
I like this plan. Unfortunately the market for V-Mart is going to be kooky so I don’t believe any team will get him for less than about the suggested 4/60. I hope they can find a more economical bat to add to the lineup. I’m kind of done counting on young bats from our system to contribute right away so I do want a veteran bat somewhere…either DH or RF. Peterson and Kivlehan are not likely to do much until mid-2015 realistically. And neither has demonstrated the kind of talent that is going to dramatically alter the team’s production…rather they could fill some holes with decent production when they’re ready.
If they can find a platoon partner for Montero that might be enough at DH. Then the development of players like Ackley, Walker, Miller, Taylor and Paxton could be the difference between making the playoffs and just missing them.
I think they have enough LHd bats to do a sort of platoon with Montero. Kivlehan may be ready mid season but I would prefer he gets a full year of AAA. I’m tired of our kids being rushed.
Peterson may need half a year in Jackson. He’s taking walks and hitting for some power in the AFL, but he’s not hitting consistently. I don’t think Peterson makes it to Seattle until 2016 at the earliest.
Montero has RF pop and that’s great for Safeco. As far as VMart goes, I’m not quite sure he gets a 4 year deal. He’s a DH primarily. There is a reason Papi didn’t get a big FA contract. DH’s rarely get more than 3 years. I don’t think Detroit is necessarily a favorite. VMart has ties to McClendon and Seattle is looking as good as Detroit when it comes to winning. The Tigers could lose Scherzer and that will have an impact on their ability to win the Central.
Patrick Kivlehan is intriguing.
It’s really hard for a team such as the Marners to carry 2 platooning DH’ s and not effect the depth of the position players throughout the roster. At least one of the DH’ s has to be a reasonable roster depth option which Montero would not be.
Too true. When Montero had his “incident” I was thinking he could be gone. Tacoma is going to be seeing three or four 1B/DH types coming up (Peterson and Kivlehan who are blocked at 3B plus Jordy Lara and possibly Dario Pizzano) next season some time. They already have Ji-Man Choi who could still be a prospect. If they aren’t ready to make Montero the DH on the big club I don’t see where he goes. But you’re right — he’s a one-dimensional player whose roster spot could be filled better. His value is increased by the fact that what he does is something the rest of the roster doesn’t: hit lefties. That’s why I imagine he could stick around and is probably why they haven’t already dumped him.
V-Mart would solidify our DH slot for the next 4 years. I think it’s gonna take a 4yr $62-$64m for Seattle to land him I think, and I’m ok with that because we won’t have to worry about DH for the next 4 years
That’s a bold prediction that a 36 year old DH is going to strengthen your lineup for 4 years? He may well be worth the gamble for Seattle but you can’t tell me what he is going to be in 2016, 17 or 18.
He is a career .306/.373/.475 hitter. I wouldn’t worry about a heavy decline, despite his age. I think 4 years and 60-64 million is fair.
4 and 60 is fine. All I said was that you don’t know who he will be a couple years from now. Signing Martinez to a fair contract does not mean you or anyone can count on fair production 2 years from now. He just had his best year and a half ever but father time is father time. He might be raking at 41 but who really knows.
If they sign him, it will be an attempt to take advantage of his production over the next two years. Cano will start to decline, Felix has nowhere to go but down, and Iwakuma is only signed through 2015. The Mariners’ window of contention is pretty short, unless payroll goes up dramatically.
Agreed, it would be a great signing for the Mariners. They have to take advantage of this window over the next couple years.
With the farm the M’s have and the new TV deal, the M’s can easily stay in contention for years to come. You talk as baseball is over in Seattle in a few years. You have at least 3 top young pitchers getting started and more to come along with a string of power bats that will start arriving in 2016. The day of building a team through FA are nearing the end. Dollar have got where they aren’t sustainable. The window is not closing.
A couple of other thoughts, I think we all know Smoak is gone one way or the other which is probably best for all involved. I think that Miller was at least Top 10 in the majors at SS if you take out his horrible 6 weeks to start the season. I also think the depth with Taylor and Marte (in the future) should make SS a non factor in the offseason. Agree that Zunino needs to improve at the plate but I fully expect him to do so…I think even a .230/.300 line with his power/leadership/defense is perfectly fine.
As far as the outfield goes, I think that Saunders is a better player (albeit oft injured) than Ackley. I would prefer they traded Ackley for a middle order outfield bat than Saunders myself. I’m not going to get all up in arms over either one if it improves the team, just my thoughts.
Interesting thought on adding Cueto…could be doable and I think we could do it by using guys like Ramirez/Elias as he only has one year left before FA and will be owed alot of money this season.
Good luck getting a middle of the order outfielder for ackley…unless you are adding some good prospects in which case ackley would not headline the deal.
I saw one projection of Miller being worth 4.5 WAR next year. He had his sophomore slump, battled thru it and is going to be a star. I think a lot of these kids were busted by the old manager that tried to make everyone homerun hitters.
I agree…not sure if he would be a 4+ WAR player but I believe his OPS+ was top 5 in baseball from a shortstop from June 1st on.
I like the prospects of Miller too. He’s talented, and often guys will struggle a bit. He looked a lot better later in the season.
The best thing is the depth. I like Miller best among our SS guys, but Taylor is pretty good as well, and a very solid defensive player. Plus, Marte took a huge step forward this year, and should be in AAA next year.
That depth will allow the M’s to just see what happens. Let Miller and Taylor battle for the job. Both fit well on the ML roster, and they can give them enough playing time.
He has a real good glove and offensive skills…….but a star? I like him but………He gotta show me some Star type WAR, contribution before I start counting it.
fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=b…
Fangraphs has their Steamer 600 projections up and Tulo and Simmons are the only two projected higher. Of course, being the Mariner homer that I am, I see even more. 😀 Steamer 600 has him hitting in the mid .250s, but the kid will eventually hit higher that that and his combo of speed and power make him and xbh machine.
Yes, projections don’t mean a thing. But it’s fun… when they are good.
He’s not a star, regardless what Steamer says.That was my only point.
Flash, Flaaaash, he does the impossible!!!
Yes, I understand… I said going to be, not is. Give the kid a year or two. I see this kid as a .280/.380/.480 kind of bat. Just me. He’s hit .300/.400/.500 everywhere he’s been. He’s never had issues with reverse splits. He’s got a great head on his shoulders is strong and runs like an ostrich.
I’m all to familiar with his skill set, age, major league production, minor league production, college production, defense, plate discipline etc.. He looks,more like a 3 WAR player for a handful of years than a star. Not many guys turn into stars at age 25 with his track record. He might turn into a star but I’d bet the under at this point. Think about the star shortstops of the last 4 decades and tell me one who was not established going into their 25 year old season. Their are none. “Runs like an Osterich? He can run but…….
The Ostrich comment was one the broadcasters made all the time when he first came up.
We’ll see.
Edit: closed the window. What if Tulo plays in Safeco vs Coors Field? You think he’s the player he is today? This will be the season that defines Miller. 2015 will be his age 25 season. He hasn’t done all that bad except for a couple months in 2014.
M’s fans always talking about their prospects as they fail one after the next, and when they fail, they just talk about them needing even more time lol.
Yep. That’s us.
You are correct, he does do the impossible as evidenced by last years first half batting stats.
Nooooo. Flash! Don’t tell me you haven’t seen the Flash Gordon movie from the 80’s or so and remember the theme song by Queen. You Flash. You do the impossible.
Miller was a -4.5 Owar player last season and now you are talking about him and Tulo in the same breath? You take homer to a whole other level.
We should talk about this at the end of 2015. I have no issue with being wrong.
-4.5 Owar, and we are talking about his offensive skills? Only in seattle.
The other hole in the lineup comes at shortstop, where the Mariners combined to hit .239/.295/.344. Each of those collective rate stats ranked in the bottom-third of the league, and their collective wRC+ of 83 ranked 20th. Brad Miller took a step back at the plate. Why is it always the M’s fans that are the biggest homers? What about Smoak being a great 1b? Ackley being #2 pick and cant miss prospect? It never ends lol.
Miller will bounce back. He OPSd .792 in the 2nd half which isn’t so bad. There are some projections out there saying he will be top 3 in WAR next year. The kid doesn’t have 700 MLB ABs. Give him time.
Many “can’t miss” prospects miss, too. I would still like to see Ackley traded and moved back to 2nd base. His bat fits better there than in LF. He doesn’t have the power that Alex Gordon has. Look how long it took Gordon, too.
Actually I think Cueto is only owed like $8 million in 2015, huge bargain.
The other hole in the lineup comes at shortstop, where the Mariners combined to hit .239/.295/.344. Each of those collective rate stats ranked in the bottom-third of the league, and their collective wRC+ of 83 ranked 20th. Brad Miller took a step back at the plate,
Would the Mariners be interested in a Carlos Gomez for Kivlehon and
Hultzen? You could then shift Jackson to a corner outfield spot. Since Gomez is signed to a team friendly deal ($8M in 2015 and $9M in 2016) Jack Z still has some payroll flexibility to sign another right handed bat.
I don’t the M’s are in the conversation for Gomez if Kivlehan and Hultzen are the package. If the M’s did get Gomez, Jackson goes to Milwaukee to cover CF unless Milwaukee has a better option in the minors or on the roster.
Jackson isn’t better than Saunders or Ackley at the present. So moving him to a corner makes Seattle worse, not better.
Couldn’t the Mariners simply non tender him to save themselves $8M? Also the Brewers have Parra who can play CF.
Mariners could non tender Jackson to save the money but that wouldn’t be the best move. He is the best CF we have and I think people are putting too much into the 2 months he was with the Mariners frankly.
As far as getting Gomez for that package is a joke…no way on earth that would happen.
Why is this package a joke. Kivlehan is blocked by Seager and Hultzen is coming back from major shoulder surgery. In return the Mariners are getting two years of a top 5, GG centerfielder for only $17M in total. If anything the Brewers are assuming all of the risk by taking Hultzen instead of Pike or even Diaz.
That is what he was saying. There is NO WAY the Brewers are taking that package for Gomez! We would be laughed off the phone. Maybe Walker, Peterson and Hultzen….
McClendon was Jackson’s hitting coach in Detroit and thinks he can fix him. The M’s don’t need to save $, they need to get more good players. Jackson is a legit MLB CFer. If he’s struggling at the dish, I just with McClendon would move him out of the leadoff spot.
He was worth 3.1 WAR in 2013 and 5.2 in 2012; yes, 2014 was less than inspiring. But non-tendering him to save about 8 million on Jackson is not something to consider, specifically when they just dealt Nick Franklin for him in July.
Jackson was hitting .296 when we traded for him. I wonder if he was trying too hard to show his new team he was worth the trade. I think we put last year behind us, and see what he can do next year. If he struggles move him from the 1 spot, but they need to keep him.
They definitely need to keep Jackson! It’s really troubling to see the way so many people so ready to write him off already.
Where as their fielding numbers are close to the same, Jackson is way more dependable in games played than Saunders— 2010-2014 Jackson played 200+more games than Saunders. Offensively, Jackson’s BA (.273) is 42 pts higher than Saunders BA(.2310) so with 200 more games played with similar fielding numbers plus increased offensive #’s Jackson is the better player.
Interesting idea, if Gomez was available he would suit the M’s needs very well, some package made up of a couple of Kivlehan, Jackson, Hultzen, Elias, Taylor or Saunders, plus maybe a smaller piece could be attractive.
No way.
You aren’t getting Gomez without including some combo of Walker, Paxton, and/or Peterson. Jackson can’t be trade till after the draft. Carlos Gomez is one of the best players in baseball. You aren’t going to get him for a bunch of middling prospects and average ML guys.
I was hoping for a Gomez trade last offseason, but it’s pretty clear the Brewcrew has no interest in moving him.
I expect Seattle to be active this offseason, but even without changes the Mariners can field this lineup of players under team control next season:
CF Austin Jackson R
LF Dustin Ackley L
2B Robinson Cano L
3B Kyle Seager L
1B Logan Morrison L
C Mike Zunino R
RF Michael Saunders L
SS Chris Taylor R
DH Brad Miller L
SP Felix Hernandez R
SP James Paxton L
SP Hisashi Iwakuma R
SP Roenis Elias L
SP Taijuan Walker R
CL Fernando Rodney
Of those players, only Cano, Iwakuma and Rodney are at least 30 years of age.
We have a very nice foundation layed, with our Farm System in tack after the 2014 trade deadline.
Somehow and someway I see some substantial hitters being acquired whether VMart or Hanley Ramirez. Hanley prob would cost about the same as VMart, and with Hanley’s poor Defense could make for a very interesting fulltime DH option “if” he’s willing to DH majority of the time, and then play a backup SS role when we needed him in the field.
He’s been very reluctant to play any position besides SS.
Hanley would be a great move, as he might actually be a bargain this year. But he really does fit best with a team that can move him to 3B sooner or later. The M’s don’t have that.
Plus, adding Hanley would make it very difficult to find playing time for Taylor and Miller, who are two of our better young talents. Hanley would be great, but I don’t think its a good fit at all.
You guys don’t need Hanley……..unless you think he can switch back and forth between outfield corners and DH….and pay him like a team that sees 5 years of a power hitting 3b. Y’all have better fits out there.
The issue with this lineup is that it is just as weak as last year. Miller and Taylor should not be playing in the lineup and your DH shouldn’t be batting 9th. If you had those players everyday you’d be batting Miller/Saunders 6th and 7th in the order. Zunino would be 8th and Taylor would be 9th.
Also, there is no way that I’d slot Paxton #2 and Elias #4. I would think they’d slot #3 and #5 in a good rotation.
Your lineup suggestions would have six straight lefthanded hitters followed by three straight righthanded hitters.
My lineup had four straight lefthanded hitters, but Robinson Cano hits lefthanded pitchers well enough and Logan Morrison hits lefthanders better than he hits righthanders.
With a projected wRC+ of 104, Brad Miller would be a substantial improvement over the wRC+ of 75 posted by Seattle designated hitters in 2014. The young Mariners hitters are at ages when their production is more likely to increase than decrease.
I think that’s why Victor Martinez and Yasmany Tomas fit so well. If they got those guys, you could have this lineup:
Jackson/Saunders CF (R)
Saunders/Ackley LF (L)
Cano 2B (L)
Martinez DH (S)
Seager 3B (L)
Tomas RF (R)
Morrison 1B (L)
Zunino C (R)
Miller/Taylor SS (L/R)
That’s a pretty solid lineup.
Tomas AND Martinez? Crazy gamble. Might as well go for blood while the KING can still feel his right hand fingers I guess.
We have taken our time with drafting a nice core and now it’s time to step up our payroll with the new TV deal starting in 2015.
We should go all in with Thomas and V-Mart. Also bring back Young on a low cost deal to help the workload of Elias and Walker.
I would love Tomas but with our luck he will be the anti-Abreu! I don’t know if we are quite in the ballpark of being able to take 80-100 million dollar gambles. V-MART would be great for DH if we can get him on a 3 yr deal but i doubt that.
Honestly, it doesn’t matter what the M’s do. Lets face it, Jack Z has a terrible track record of signing and trading players which is why I expect him to make some head scratching move this offseason.
Last offseason was mediocre. Jack Z clearly neglected the OF and it probably cost them at shot the playoffs (ex. starting Abe Almonte at CF). Jack Z added 2 permanent DH players (Corey Hart and LoMo) and an 3rd one (Kendrys Morales).
And FYI signing Cano to that albatross contract would make a lot of GM’s look good in year 1. Year 10…? We’ll go wait and see…
My guess is that Jack Z goes all out for a permanent DH player like Victor Martinez and neglects the rest of the roster. I don’t know what’s the M’s fascination with permanent DH players… perhaps because they expecting the next Edgar Martinez? As crazy as it sounds I absolutely wouldn’t be surprised if Jack Z gave him 4 years $90million.
Look at our DH production. Something needs to be done and I dont think Morales or Montero is the answer
Yeah, you’re right, the M’s do make terrible signings.
The M’s have the worst contract in baseball, paying Alex Rodriguez $21 million to be a pariah and media train wreck. That is added to albatross contracts to Mark Teixiera and CC Sabathia, as well as soon-to-be albatross contracts for Jacoby Elsbury and Brian McCann. Further, the M’s are in a precarious position with major commitments to old and/or injured players like Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka.
The M’s future looks even more bleak, with a terrible farm system, few good younger players, and declining wins in the past three consecutive seasons, hitting 84 wins and finished well out of playoff contention last year.
Oh…..wait.
Is Swartz’ Arbitration Model out yet? Or are they waiting for al lthe Offseason Outlooks to be published?
I believe the plan this year is to release the arb projections team-by-team in each Outlook, and there’s probably going to be a comprehensive post following the series.
I’d like to see the M’s go all in this offseason.
First, sign Yasmani Tomas (probably 7/85-90 mil)
Then, sign Victor Martinez (4/60)
Next, Francisco Liriano (2/25 plus option)
That is a lot to ask, but the M’s could make those guys fit in the budget, and it would shore up their biggest weaknesses: RH power, DH, OF, SP depth, and R/L balance and consistent production through the 3-6 spots in order. Adding two of the premier players available this year is tough, but this is the M’s window to make a major move. Adding those three guys would transform this team into a legit WS contender.
V Mart or Yasmani but not both and I think Yasmani would be a bit of a stretch for the M’s
It looks like Tomas is going to get a 100 million. That means 7/110 for Seattle.
That’s about $13-14m/yr which isn’t bad considering he’s only 23. I don’t think that would be a high risk contract to me and we should grab Tomas even if it hits $104-110m 7yrs.
Yeah it would be alright. Their are some concerns about his high strikeout rate in Cuba which is about equal to A ball. But his power is real. Not a bad gamble for a right handed power bat.
Mariners seem like a wild card team this offseason, could conceivably be involved on anyone
Trade for Bostons Allen Craig. LF/RF/1B/DH. Right handed clutch bat coming off a down year. In 2013 he was clean up for WS runners up.
Trade for Mark Trumbo. Massive right handed power. Another option for LF/1B/DH. Also coming off a down and injured season.
So the “Condor” is miffed bc the M’s would like to see him play a complete season w/o a trip(s) to the DL. For me, 2013 when he missed a lot of playing time bc he overextended himself in the WBC was enough to question his dedication to the people that pay him $millions annually. Then when he reports in 2014 having not put maximum effort into preparing himself for the rigors of a 162 game season, he plays only 78 games and wonders why the M’s are disappointed and questioning his intent? He did finally show some potential offensively in 2014 with a .273 BA, by far his best season with the bat, having a lifetime BA of .231. The days of getting by just on talent and natural ability are gone Michael, time to get to work and prove that you are willing to put out the effort for a career in MLB.
Trade miller and ramirez along with another mid tier prospect for Kemp assuming the dodgers eat a good bit of his contract, hang on to Saunders as our 4th OF. Sign Hanley as a dh/fill in at ss/3rd, re-sign young or sign McCarthy if money allows it.