The Mets hope that 2015 represents the start of a window of contention that has seemed in planning for some time. But cracking that window open without compromising its structural integrity could require some careful handling.
Guaranteed Contracts
- David Wright, 3B: $107MM through 2020
- Curtis Granderson, OF: $47MM through 2017
- Bartolo Colon, SP: $11MM through 2015
- Jon Niese, SP: $16.6MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Bobby Parnell, RP (5.132): $3.7MM projected salary
- Daniel Murphy, 2B (5.109): $8.3MM
- Eric Young Jr., OF (4.123): $2.3MM
- Dana Eveland, RP (4.029): $1.0MM
- Dillon Gee, SP (4.028): $5.1MM
- Ruben Tejada, SS (3.171): $1.7MM
- Lucas Duda, 1B (3.137): $4.3MM
- Buddy Carlyle, RP (3.096): $1.0MM
- Jenrry Mejia, RP (2.140, Super Two): $3.1MM
- non-tender candidates: Young, Tejada, Carlyle
Free Agents
The first order of business is already in the books: Sandy Alderson will not only be back as GM, but received an extension that keeps him under contract through 2017. Barring a disastrous season to come, then, it appears that Alderson will have the chance to see through the rebuilding process that he started back before the 2011 season. Terry Collins will also keep his seat as skipper, reflecting the generally positive vibes surrounding the club last year.
While cautious and hopeful optimism has held sway in Queens of late, expectations could go through the roof this spring. After a dominant start to his career, Matt Harvey was shelved for Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2014. He is expected to be a full go, and if he shows his typical form down in Port St. Lucie, visions of grandeur will not be far behind.
True, Harvey is only one player, but he’s both a really good one and not the only reason to hope that the rotation could be a unique strength. Zack Wheeler came with nearly as much prospect hype, and has not disappointed – even if he has not been a true ace out of the womb. Jacob deGrom just wrapped up a stunning rookie campaign in which he tossed 140 1/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball with peripherals to match. He may be somewhat old for his MLB debut — deGrom is now 26 — but the fact remains that he was outstanding over a lengthy stretch, and is under control for six more years. New York can round out its starting five from amongst a trio of solid-to-decent starters who are all playing under solid-to-decent contractual situations: Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Bartolo Colon. And there is both depth and upside ascending the ladder underneath this group, led by top prospect Noah Syndergaard, the touted Rafael Montero (who made his big league debut in 2014), and the rising Steven Matz.
This bunch of starting pitching assets – and bunching of qualified starters at the MLB level – has led to speculation that a trade could be forthcoming. Unless a young player at a position of need were dangled, New York seems highly unlikely to part with its most valuable arms. But Colon, Gee, and perhaps even Niese could potentially be had, particularly if Alderson decides it would be useful to re-allocate some payroll to address other needs.
Of course, the most strident trade suggestions have revolved around the idea of the Mets sending some of its hurlers to a shortstop-rich team like the Cubs or Diamondbacks. The idea of adding a controllable shortstop certainly has facial appeal. And while common wisdom holds that young players (especially prospects) tend not to be traded for one another, there are exceptions; recently, several deals have involved exactly that type of exchange. (E.g., D’backs get Didi Gregorius, give Trevor Bauer; Tigers acquire Jose Iglesias, give Avisail Garcia; Padres get Andrew Cashner, give Anthony Rizzo.) But indications out of Chicago and Arizona are that both clubs are generally content waiting to see how their middle infield situations shake out before making moves. Likewise, the Mets’ seeming MLB-level pitching logjam does not directly involve the team’s most valuable pitchers; after already going through the TJ process with Harvey, the club will surely be in no rush to move arms.
Barring a trade, the Mets will face a somewhat familiar situation at short. After passing on veteran Stephen Drew last year, following months of rumors, the Mets gave nearly all of the playing time to Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores. Neither grabbed hold of the job, but both played above replacement level. Each had defensive metrics that ranged from about average to substantially above-average (a surprise for Flores, who was expected to move off the position). At the plate, the pair showed their respective strengths and weaknesses, as Tejada slashed .237/.342/.310 over 419 plate appearances and Flores went for a .251/.286/.378 line over 274 trips to the plate. As with last year, but this time with more urgency, Alderson must decide whether to continue the audition process or instead acquire a veteran who could boost the club’s chances of making a postseason run. The Mets could pursue the still-young Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, or Drew – this time on a fairly modest one-year deal – or go after a veteran platoon/reserve option.
Behind the plate, young Travis d’Arnaud was quite productive in the second half and figures to have the starting role again. He could, however, be pushed by rising prospect Kevin Plawecki. That duo is also good enough, perhaps, that a trade could ultimately make sense, though the likelier scenario is for the Mets to let it play out before committing to a single option.
Otherwise, the infield appears largely set, for different reasons. David Wright is the face of the franchise and is going nowhere at third. The team will hope for a return to form. First baseman Lucas Duda rewarded the Mets’ faith in dealing away Ike Davis with a breakout campaign. And Daniel Murphy had another strong year at second entering his final year of arb eligibility.
Though that alignment could be kept in its present form, Murphy remains worth watching. He has come up repeatedly as a trade or extension candidate, with the idea that New York should either deal him while it can achieve value or commit to him long-term. The team does have plausible replacements, and could give a chance to one or more of Flores, Dilson Herrera, or Matt Reynolds. But that would not represent a bet on the present, and another productive year from Murphy could make him a mid-season trade chip or even a qualifying offer candidate after the year.
One other possibility for improvement straddles the infield dirt and the outfield grass (which, it bears noting, will be somewhat less voluminous after the Citi Field fences are again brought in this offseason). Duda’s big year came in spite of worsening splits against lefties. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams rightly pointed out to me, it could make sense to add a right-handed bat to spend some time both at first and in the outfield. Adams suggests that free agent Michael Cuddyer would make a good fit for that role, particularly if he can be had on a short-term deal and paired with another right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Over at MetsBlog, Matthew Cerrone discusses a scenario of that kind, ticking through a few available options.
As things stand, one corner spot is wide open, with possibilities ranging from a signing or trade to some kind of platoon. (Internal options include the switch-hitting Eric Young Jr. and left-handed-swinging Matt den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.) Certainly, there are a fair number of intriguing bats floating around that may not require massive commitments — Cuddyer, Colby Rasmus, and Alex Rios among them. Otherwise, the remaining two starting roles are accounted for, as Juan Lagares has shown enough that he will be trusted to hold down the job in center and Curtis Granderson will look to restore hope in the remaining $47MM left on his deal.
What’s left is the bench and the bullpen. Most of the position reserves will likely be drawn from amongst the names discussed above, as New York has a host of young infielders and outfielders who can be expected to provide reasonable production (with some upside) for a league-minimum rate. Many decisions will be driven by the team’s coming 40-man roster crunch.
The pen, too, is not likely to see much change, barring a trade. Bobby Parnell will return from Tommy John surgery and look to unseat Jenrry Mejia from the closer’s role, though he may not be ready to start the year after going under the knife in April. Jeurys Familia will presumably join those two as the late-inning favorites. Others in the mix include righties Vic Black, Carlos Torres, and Buddy Carlyle. There is somewhat less depth on the current 40-man from the left-handed side, with Josh Edgin and Dana Eveland being the likeliest options. In the aggregate, the Mets have plenty of arms to choose from and could just take what emerges out of the spring. Depending upon how the free agent market moves, it would not be terribly surprising to see Alderson add a veteran arm, but that can be said of most teams and is not a top priority.
Some reports indicate that total spending is likely to remain in the ballpark of last year’s mid-$80MM Opening Day payroll. Of course, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com explains, that number looks somewhat implausible given the current slate of contracts. And the Mets seemingly operate with a flexible budget for player spending, anyway. With $54MM in contractual guarantees and about $30MM in potential arbitration spending still to go, the tab is already set to outstrip last year’s starting point, even before accounting for any new additions. Beyond simply adding some cash to the ledger, the club could potentially free more dollars by reallocating resources: a sacrifice of some pitching depth, for instance, might well be worth the commensurate risk to achieve near-term upside by upgrading in the outfield or middle infield.
In the end, the Mets have the talent in place to make the fabled “meaningful games in September” a reasonable expectation. And the possibility of a full-on breakout cannot be discounted, though that would require several things to turn in New York’s favor. (Interestingly, there are plenty of parallels to the 2012 Nationals.) Alderson now seems to have many of the cards in hand that he set out to find; all that remains is to play them.
Destry
The Mets are one bat away from a breakout year, if Harvey is the Harvey of 2013, and they can stay healthy.
meetthemets26
you gotta give harvey a full year of pitching to recover….he may go 12-12 next yr….
DarthMurph
Who cares what his win loss record is?
Jack 16
I agree. He will probably be on an innings limit since he didn’t pitch at all this year. They are not likely to let him throw more than 175 innings his first year back from TJ surgery.
slider32
Lets see if the Mets are smart like the Nats were with Strasburg and limit his innings. Harvey is a bulldog and the fans will want him to pitch 200 plus.
Jon 25
This will be one of the most interesting scenarios if the Mets are in the playoff mix in September. A healthy Harvey will not get anywhere close to 200 innings, but how hard will heads clash when the team shuts him down? They may also try their best to limit that situation with moves throughout the season, extra rest, a minor DL stint (like DeGrom faced in 2014) could all prolong Harvey’s innings to the end of the regular season.
paqza
6 man rotation and strategic rest days could accomplish that.
James Solomon
I agree, atleast for the 1st half of the season. And allow the other guys, to go deeper into games which would also keep the bullpen rested for half the season before setting sights on a playoff run in the 2nd half with the best 5
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
I didn’t think that was smart at all. If the Mets aren’t in contention, then sure, shut him down. But I think the Nats cost themselves a shot at a title by shutting Strasburg down like they did.
mauryfeldman
Luckily the Mets have so much pitching depth that they can limit Harvey’s innings without having to give innings to poor performers. The real issue will be corralling Harvey’s drive (a quality I’m otherwise quite happy to see).
Pei Kang
more than one bat, David Wright is unfortunately on the downward trend. Although I would like to give Flores a full-time shot at Ss, if they do want to compete and be a WC winner in 2015, they need at least 2 bats.
slider32
The smartest thing the Mets can do is trade some of their pitching with the Cubs who are loaded with great young position players. This could benefit both teams .
paqza
What trade would you propose? I’ve heard the two FOs don’t see eye-to-eye.
Jon 25
The Cubs are reportedly adamant about wanting Syndergaard in any trade for Castro and the Mets do not appear willing to make such a move. Unless the Cubs asking price drops or the Mets unexpectedly get overly desperate for a SS, don’t expect a match.
Pei Kang
Castro is a good all around shortstop, but he isn’t worth Thor…
paqza
The market would disagree with that statement. Thor hasn’t thrown a pitch in the Majors whereas Castro is a multiple All-Star on a below-market-value contract.
brickman
Castro is a good player but he’s an all star because the Cubs had to be represented.
paqza
He’s also one of the better SS in baseball.
brickman
In the top half.
NY_Mets_18
Not necessarily true, he batted .292 with 14 HRs and 80 RBI with missing the last month of the season. Those are impressive numbers for a guy on a team with only one other legitimate hitter.
brickman
In 2013 he hit .245 in 161 games with only 30 walks in 666 at bats. He struck out 129 times and only knocked in 44 runs. I’ll admit that he didn’t make the all-star team that year. He’s an average fielder and can’t bunt.
Pei Kang
The market is out of whack :). Billy Beane kind of upped the ante with prospects in the desperation trades he made this season. Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to have Castro (as a Met fan) but I feel Thor will be outstanding in time (if healthy), a true #1 type pitcher ala Harvey. Yeah, watch I say this and he goes and gets hurt…hah.
paqza
Right now, Castro is worth more than just Thor.
brickman
Right now, Castro is worth more than Russell.. So what?
paqza
We were talking about trading for Castro, and somebody expected the Mets to get him for far less than he’s worth. Do you mind adding something constructive?
brickman
Trades are made for the future of the players not for their current worth.My cousin, Don Mincher,was traded along with Earl Battery for Roy Sievers. Roy was worth a lot more at the time than the two of them but the Senators( later the Twins) thought themselves fortunate within a short period on time.
paqza
Yes, I’m aware. I’m also aware that Thor wouldn’t get the Mets Castro in a 1 for 1 trade.
brickman
Alderson should call Arizona and see what they want to do.
paqza
I do like Owings and Pollock but I’m not sure how Owings will be after his shoulder injury or where we’ll stick Flores.
brickman
I am willing to risk it. If he had only one arm it would still be an upgrade from Tejada.Flores can play second until Herrera is ready. What do you think of
A) Murphy going to left field. He’d still be a butcher but better to have one in of than 2b.
B)trading Murphy for Evan Gattis and Luis Avilan. The Braves want to go with Betancourt
C)trading Murphy and a pitcher not involved in getting a shortstop for Cespedes.
paqza
Sure…and?
$6544906
Not if Thor lives up to his potential of being a # 1 or 2 type starting pitcher. Last year was successful but I think he needs another half year in the minors before we can ascertain his true value. And if it is as expected, Stanton is the only player I would trade him for. Otherwise, let him be.
Pei Kang
yeah, but Sandy and Co might be itching to make a big splash, who knows. I hope they leave Thor be too, I really think that kid is something special.
brickman
The Mets should trade Syndergaard for Addison Russell. The Cubs really want Noah but Castro is not enough. For them to get want they really want we should get what we really want. Russell and Dilson Herrera should play at AAA for at least half a season. Maybe a season. We can start with Murphy and Flores in the middle and then trade Murphy at the deadline when a contender needs him.Flores could remain as insurance if either of the prospects doesn’t work out at the start.If the Cubs will only trade Castro the Mets should offer Gee or Montero .
paqza
If the Cubs were okay with that deal, I’m fairly certain Sandy would already have done it. Russell’s floor is really high whereas Thor’s floor is career-ending injury.
brickman
The Cubs are trying to squeeze the Mets. Sandy has to squeeze back. Pitcher’s floors are always career ending injuries. So you would not have taken Nolan Ryan for Fregosi?
paqza
The Ryan for Fregosi deal is not even remotely comparable. It was over 40 years ago, for one, and the markets have changed. Secondly, Ryan ended his career with the most strikeouts of anyone, ever, so that’s a pretty extreme case. Fregosi had put up over 40 WAR before he was traded; Addison Russell hasn’t had an at bat above AA. Overall, I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue, exactly, since I can tell you for a fact that Hammel and Samardzija aren’t Ryan and that Russell isn’t Fregosi.
brickman
I’m using an absurd example of people not wanting to trade for pitchers because they may get hurt. Addison Russell has not had an at bat above AA.He is not proven. His down side is that he could be Herm Willingham or Don Bosch. The Cubs really want Noah. They should be willing to give up a shortstop. They can’t play all three (Castro, Russell, and Baez). The alternative is to do nothing. Hardly productive. BTW, when Ryan was traded he wasn’t known as the all time strikeout leader. He was known as a guy who couldn’t throw the ball over the plate.
paqza
Wait, so which side are you arguing? Don’t we agree?
geofft
Correction: the Cubs are not adamant about anything on this subject. It is the WRITERs who are saying that the Cubs would need Syndergaard. The Cubs, for their part, have said that they are not looking to trade Castro at this point.
And why would they? Baez’ strike out rate is about 40%, and Russell has played only 63 games at AA. The Cubs would be smarter to wait and see how those guys develop before deciding whether (and whom) to trade. Oh, and its also been speculated that the Cubs could move Castro to the OF.
mauryfeldman
Wright had a shoulder injury he covered up; if he’s 100% healthy, he can return to his earlier level of performance.
Over the course of the season, a lot of young players with upside took hold of positions previously held by inferior players. Valverde and Farnsworth were replaced by Mejia and Familia. Duda locked down 1B and then developed into a true power bat in the 2nd half. D’Arnaud was the worst player in baseball before June; then came back and was quite good. And DeGrom replaced a series of revolving 5th starters; the Mets have him for the whole year in ’15. All of these players are on the upswing of their careers.
Nothing is a given in baseball, but it seems reasonable to imagine the Mets moving up to the mid-80s or better next season.
Pei Kang
I understand he had a terrible shoulder injury, ALL injuries ruin any athlete(see JJ Hardy). But, my point is they need a backup plan to Mr. “Captain America’s” eventual slide….aside from the obvious needs at Ss/LF.
paqza
Sure – but 3B is a position they could conceivably fill with Flores if it gets to that point. And I know that Wright likely wouldn’t be for it, but he’d be one heck of a corner outfielder with his arm and reads – if that helps him last longer in his later years, it would be something to consider.
paqza
Wright is indeed on the decline; he’s at that stage in his career. However, he did put up consecutive 6+ WAR seasons leading up to 2014 – a year he played with a serious shoulder injury – but still put up close to 2 WAR. If he can recover somewhat, it would be completely reasonable to see him put up 4+ WAR in 2015.
Pei Kang
yeah, I can see him putting up 3-5 WAR (if healthy) next few years.
$6544906
I respectfully disagree Pei. So much of Wright’s success was predicated on his power to RCF. Given the fences are being brought in for a second time, it’s entirely possible David will rediscover his pre-Citi Field form. His injury last year would have sidelined a lesser man. If he can comeback healthy, I expect him to have a big year in the reconfigured Ebbets, oops I meant Citi Field.
Pei Kang
good argument, Chum(Lee? 🙂 I mainly stated Wright CAN be 3-5 due to his defense and stolen base threat, I don’t think he’s going to hit 20+ HR again. Baseball Gods, I hope I’m wrong about that. I miss Shea…
$6544906
Me too. And it’s Chums but Chumlee works too.
Pei Kang
🙂 nice to chat with you Chums.
MetsTalk5
If the mets current hitters dramatically improve with RISP then yes they are one bat away from contention. This lineup is awful in crucial situations.
JordanSwingman
I think they will try to go with a 6-man rotation early on in the saeson, especially if they still have the depth they have now. That way you don’t have to do it later in the year if they get to games that matter, which hopefully they are in.
Noah Baron
I originally thought that a trade with the Dodgers might make sense. Unfortunately the Dodgers are a lot smarter now than they were a few days ago with their new GM, making them a less appealing trade partner.
My proposed trade would have been Jon Niese and Daniel Murphy in exchange for Joc Pederson. This is no longer possible, because statistically this trade favors the Mets.
I think the Mets bet at improving their outfield is through trading Niese and Murphy, the team’s two most valuable trade chips. They could then sign Stephen Drew to platoon with Tejada at shortstop, forming a pretty good SS platoon, while letting Flores play second base.
They also need a RHH bat to platoon with Duda and an everyday outfielder. This could be the return in the Niese/Murphy trade, but right now I don’t see too many available players.
From a well-versed Mets fan, this is a fantastically written offseason outlook.
Truth Or Yinka Dare
Nope nope nope on Stephen Drew. He finally got the money he was asking for (although prorated) and turned a dismal .162/7/26 with a .536 OPS over 300 PA. He is absolutely worthless and I will be insanely pissed off if Alderson wastes a single penny on him. He’s not even a plus defensive SS, with 6 DRS for his entire career.
Jeff Todd
I actually kind of like the idea, depending on Drew’s cost, of course. You get a guy with everyday upside who has hit righties very well in his career.
For me, the Mets should be a) plunking down significant future commitments only for guys they believe in; b) buying up some short-term assets that provide near-term stability and some upside to help support a contender in 2015, if things break right … or can serve as trade fodder.
You wouldn’t let that get in the way of a big move for a future piece, of course. But with New York’s roster, I’d rather have Drew than, say, a $5MM reliever.
paqza
Do you think Flores could hit well enough to offset Drew’s defense+salary?
Jeff Todd
Not sure I understand the question.
But basically, my thinking is that a guy like Drew gives you flexibility and a bit of upside. If he can be had on a reasonable one-year deal, that’s a great thing to have for a team in this position.
If Flores is raking and playing a passable short, then you reduce Drew’s role, use him elsewhere, or keep him as a utility/depth guy and thank the baseball gods that Flores looks so good.
Senor_Met
I think Flores “raking” is not only reasonable, but pretty damn likely. In the second half, he hit .263/.300/.413 with a .261 BABIP. In September alone, he hit .278/.313/.500 with a .263 BABIP. Not only are those slashlines already pretty good, but the BABIP indicates that they’re likely to get even better. His BB% is still a concern, but not so much as a SS, and his K% is unreal (7.3 in the 2nd half.)
Noah Baron
Sure, Flores should hit better next year, which is why you start him at second base and trade Murphy. I don’t see any outfielders on the free agent market who the Mets would want, which is why it makes to trade Murphy/Niese for an outfielder.
But remember, don’t just assume that his BABIP will naturally regress to .300. Some players, Granderson for example, just have BABIP’s below .300. It’s pitchers who you should expect more BABIP regression from, not hitters.
paqza
All hail. Flores is going to be monstrous. Whenever you have a guy with a 1:1 BB%/K%, the K% is under 10, the ISO is above .150, and the age is 23 or under, you have the makings of a really, really good player. If that guy can play up the middle, then you’re justified in getting really excited. If Flores is healthy next year, he’s going to be huge.
Noah Baron
Flores doesn’t have a 1:1 BB/K ratio. He doesn’t strike out very much, but he also rarely draws walks. He’ll hit enough to play a middle infield position, but I doubt he’ll be “monstrous” any time soon.
paqza
He’s plenty close to 1:1; it was 2:3 since he got called up and put this up over his last month: 5.3% BB, 6.1 % K, .229 ISO, .277 BABIP, .295/.336/.524.
He realistically could hit as well as or better than any SS in the game – that’s certainly monstrous. Keep in mind this is a guy who hit .320+ in AAA with nearly 30 homers in 162 games at the level. His floor is hitting enough to play up the middle – his ceiling is absolutely “monstrous”.
Noah Baron
And if you trade Murphy, then having Drew, Flores and Tejada all as capable middle infielders would vastly improve the Mets’ up the middle defense while also allowing them to mix and match platoon match-ups to create decent offense from both positions.
paqza
Don’t forget Herrera! Looks like his bat is already better than both (recent vintage) Drew and Tejada.
paqza
I feel like in a vacuum, that sounds perfectly reasonable – a lefty SS with a bit of pop and strong defense to back up Flores. Considering teams like the Yankees are currently looking for an SS, though, I feel like perhaps NYM is not the optimal destination from the player’s standpoint, especially considering the likelihood of playing most of the year off the bench.
Noah Baron
Yeah, let’s use 300 plate appearances to judge a player! Great idea.
Jeff Todd
Thanks!
I don’t think the Colletti regime would have done that deal, either. Remember that they held onto Pederson despite through the trade deadline.
My guess is that Friedman will not be moving Pederson, because of his value upside. Of course, Friedman will have a lot more flexibility to get the guys he wants when it comes to building out each year’s roster, but maximizing the available resources will require the same basic approach he took to valuing young players in Tampa.
paqza
Pederson is unlikely but it’s arguable that it’s not the best trade the Mets could do with the Dodgers for an OF. Scott Van Slyke is far more proven than Pederson, with a career 134 wRC+ and a strong enough arm to play RF. Niese would land SVS, I would think – and Niese+Murphy should definitely do it if the Dodgers are willing to take on that much salary.
willywater88
I dont think the Dodgers have a need for Murphy but what do you think of Niese and D’Arnaud for Dee Gordon and SVS?
paqza
I think that would be a terrible, terrible trade. d’Arnaud is the catcher of the future. Many Mets fans think Plawecki and TdA are comparable on offense – in reality, TdA hit 40 to 50% better in AAA than Plawecki; Plawecki’s numbers in AAA have been roughly comparable to Ruben Tejada’s whereas TdA has been one of the top hitters in the PCL. Unless we were getting Seager back, that would be completely indefensible, especially considering we have several guys who could do reasonably well at 2B – Herrera and Flores come to mind.
Out of place Met fan
How does the deal “statistically this trade favors the Mets”?
S710b
I can’t believe I feel happy for the Mets and their bright future. Maybe it’s because I hope my Phillies have a similar rebuild. Looking forward to seeing how it works out for them.
brickman
The Phillies have a lot to unload.
S710b
True, but most of the Phillies’ biggest contracts will be done by the end of 2016 (Howard, Lee, Papelbon, Rollins, Ruiz), leaving only Hamels and Utley (if his options vest), who this year were the most valuable of the bunch. Unfortunately, though, those veterans weren’t even the problem this year; everyone but Howard and injured Lee produced. It’s the weak player development in this sorry organization that will prevent them from being contenders in the foreseeable future.
brickman
I am Brickman because I live in Brick NJ. I live 3 miles from where the Lakewood Blueclaws play. They haven’t had any one exciting in a while. I saw Ryan Howard when he was here. I was impressed. I thought that he might one day hit 30 HRS in a season. Shows what I know he hit 58.
UK Tiger
Pitching wise its clear to all that the Metropolitans are very rich in that area, but weak in many offensive areas.
Surely therefore trades are a coming?
They’d surely love to shift Colon but with his salary thats easier said than done, and i find myself agreeing with Jeff that Niese could possibly be the one to be moved, if they can get some decent offensive value back for him.
Interesting times for the Mets, as they are very close, like the Cubs, to really competing if they can just find that last couple of pieces to get over the edge.
Jeff Todd
I think it is fair to foresee that trades could be coming, but I don’t think they have to yet. Having six obvious big league starters is a bit of a luxury for this team, and I think they’d have a better crack at achieving a postseason berth if they took the riskier course of re-allocating that salary. But it would be hard for them to just give away any of those arms just for salary relief, and they could always let it play out and see where things stand at the trade deadline.
UK Tiger
Yep i can agree with that, getting five solid big league starters is never easy for most clubs, so getting six is not to be sniffed at when it does happen.
Were they to shift one for offense though, are we agreed the likeliest one to go would be Niese?
Jeff Todd
Not sure. I see Niese as a solid piece for the Mets right now: young, pretty cheap, fairly productive, reasonably durable. That’s a great thing to have sitting toward the back of your rotation as you promote a bunch of talented young arms and see how they work out.
I definitely think he has the most value of the three veteran starters. I’d guess Alderson will not move him, though, unless he really lands something he wants in return.
I still feel like Colon is the most likely to go, just because he is such an easy proposition. He’s a bit more attractive on the one year left than he would be as a free agent, because there’s no question of a second year, and he’s just a solid option to plug in a rotation for a contender that has more uncertainty in the rotation than do the Mets. Won’t bring back a ton in return, but he’d also free up a good amount of payroll space this year for New York. So it’s easier for me to see things converging on a deal for him.
UK Tiger
I can see that, but that would come with the pre-requisite that Colon has a good first half upto the deadline.
If he sitting there with a 5 plus ERA, and equally high FIP, im not sure you’ll find too many takers for that $11m salary, even though of course it would be pro-rated.
Its an interesting yet beneficial situation for the Mets and one theyve not been in for a long time, it will be intriguing to see what Collins does.
paqza
You’re right – it makes much more sense for the Mets to move Colón than Niese. On the other hand, teams will be far more interested in Niese than Colón – there’s the rub. Either way, I agree with your general sentiment that the Mets could probably reallocate salary more effectively if they could move one of these two and perhaps also move Murphy, although that opens up its own set of questions.
slider32
The Mets still look 2 years away from a breakout year and playoff contention. Harvey will have to have some pitching limit next year. Most pitchers who haven’t pitched for a year don’t come back and throw 200 innings. Wright who is the captain has showed signs of decline, and you never know about pitching, you need it to be good but you can’t count on it. Look at the Tigers in the playoffs, they had the last 3 Cy Young winners in their rotation. Winning in the playoffs is outlier, the best teams rarely win, its the team that has the MO JOE!
tesseract
Tigers won the central
Jeff Todd
I agree that a full breakout isn’t necessarily likely this year, but I do think it is possible. Does it require multiple things to go in the team’s favor? Yes, so I wouldn’t count on it.
But contention, in the sense of at least being a factor in the Wild Card late in the year? I think it would be a disappointment if they were not.
rct 2
Exactly. They were almost a .500 team even without Harvey and with David Wright playing terribly. Even if they made only marginal moves, they could easily contend for a wild card (though they could easily not).
Jeff Todd
Agree. As presently constructed, more of a fringe contender. But how many teams just sit on their hands all offseason? They’ll have plenty of chances to make some tweaks, even if not huge moves, that will improve their outlook … all while waiting for the right significant moves to shake out.
One thing you have to say about Alderson: he has brought in some huge talent on the trade market for veterans on expiring contracts. (Wheeler, Syndergaard, d’Arnaud, Herrera, Black.) I expect he will continue to be very calculating in spending his chips to get the pieces the team still needs.
MetsTalk5
The mets will look to trade Murphy this offseason. They will then hold a competition for 2b/SS between Flores reynolds Herrera and tejada. I doubt they go out and sign anyone for the middle infield. They need to address the corner outfield spot through trade or free agency. Granderson should move to left with that squirt gun arm.
Jeff Todd
Love the metaphor, but you need to specify what kind of squirt gun … I remember doing some damage with some early-issue Super Soakers.
Jon 25
What do you think they get back for Murphy? You don’t see them adding middle infield help, so what kind of outfielder do you have in mind?
MetsTalk5
If it is just Murphy, Mets can probably get an established bullpen arm or a prospect ranked 50-100. For outfield, I doubt they will pony up for Thomas. I think they should consider moving d’Arnaud to the OF. He is a terrible defensive catcher.
paqza
I think a bullpen arm would be a possibility but if Sandy can land a guy in the 50-100 range, it would be a coup. I’m pleased they’re not going to get Tomás because he looks like a AAAA player if you compare what he’s done in Cuba to what Céspedes/Puig/Abreu/Álvarez/Soler did in Cuba – it’s always an inexact science but it’s clear that Puig and Abreu were in a completely different league. I’d be interested in d’Arnaud in RF if he could run a bit but I think he’s too slow for it. Regarding his defense, it’s complicated. He allowed too many passed balls and didn’t throw out enough runners but on the other hand was very, very good at framing pitches. With enough time and a healthy elbow, I expect him to improve on throwing guys out and blocking pitches better. More than the defense, the concussions are what worry me about TdA because he’s got a Major League bat.
MetsTalk5
d’arnaud is not that young. I don’t know how much better you can get when you’ve been catching professionally for 5 years
paqza
FanGraphs considers him scratch, defensively, so I’ll disagree with your assertion that he’s genuinely bad. He’s extremely athletic behind the dish so reps will help and the elbow surgery will likely help him throw out more guys. He’s also an excellent pitch framer and game caller; there’s not a single scout who doesn’t think he can stick behind the plate. The concussions may be an issue long-term, though.
paqza
What is the 3B situation for the Giants? I know Sandoval is probably not going to get re-signed and Panik will probably get a good, long look at 2B. I would think Murphy+ could land the Mets Mac Williamson – a guy who would immediately become the Mets’ best power prospect.
JordanSwingman
If they are going for “one” free agent outfielder, Cuddyer is probably at the top of their list. If they choose to go with free agents, I think you could try to get Cuddyer and possibly try to get a proven veteran for a more established outfield platoon. This could be an older option like Torii Hunter or younger such as others that were established in the article.
For the middle infield, I am really not a fan of the free agent market for SS. Asdrubel Cabrera has been declining pretty steadily over the past few seasons, and Lowrie only has about one (almost two) complete seasons, and he just does not impress with what he’s got. That being said, Flores needs a consistent amount of time to see what he can do. Sure he needs to improve things all around, but we’re talking about a 23yo player, he is just starting to develop his body, so quitting on him just seems a tad unreasonable.
paqza
I think Cuddyer would be one of the worst possible options. He’s quite old (36 next year) and can’t stay on the field, having missed 200 games in the past three seasons. He also doesn’t play very well away from Coors Field; Citi’s about the opposite of Coors. So in all, I’d prefer for us not to sign a guy who can’t stay on the field, is the wrong side of 35, and can’t hit away from Coors Field. Torii Hunter would be an even worse option.
I agree with you on Flores – he should be the starting SS and allowed to earn the position. He might not stick there but at the moment, it’s the best spot for him.
Jeff Todd
Of course Cuddyer isn’t a perfect player, but he’s hit away from Coors plenty over his career.
And the question is, would you rather have a guy like Cuddyer on a one or two year commitment, or a guy like Melky Cabrera on a four or five-year deal?
You’re just not going to get youth, health, and a productive defender/hitter with a great track record on a short-term deal. The alternative to Cuddyer is basically last year’s Chris Young signing: a guy who is pretty young and has had some great years but is coming off of some declining production?
Matt B.
vote yes on proposition Cuddyer. He’s buddies with Wright, he’s a RH hitter which we desperately need, and can spell Duda at 1B from time to time. Our commitment to him would also fit nicely with Nimmo and or Conforto getting their shot in a year or so
paqza
Too old, too injured.
Senor_Met
Honestly? Probably Melky. Cuddyer would be a good platoon piece for Duda but I don’t trust him in an every day role.
paqza
The answer would be Option B: a guy like Scott Van Slyke, for example. He’s killed the ball in the Minors, plays for a team with too many OFs and not enough SP, and has more than held his own offensively. You can regress a 160 wRC+ plenty taking into account more appearances against RHP but you’ll still likely get better offense and defense than Cuddyer in a younger guy for a much lower salary.
Jeff Todd
Sure, trade market opens lots of other possibilities. I can see SVS making sense. Have to give to get, of course, but it’s a possible route.
A nice match would be Souza from the Nats, possibly involving Murphy, but it’s obviously very hard to see that happening given these teams’ trajectories and division status.
paqza
Souza woul be great. I’m a fan. Murphy could play 3B with Zimm moving to 1B. You’re right that it is unlikely.
Noah Baron
I think I’d look to acquire a corner outfielder through the trade market and add a middle infielder through free agency.
You’re right in that there are very few good corner outfielders available. Fortunately, the Mets have trade pieces in Murphy and Niese and should be willing to trade them this offseason for a starting caliber outfielder.
Seamaholic
So I’m guessing you just have a standard response whenever a Rockies player comes up … As it turns out, Cuddyer is one of the Rockies with the least home-road split.
paqza
You’d be guessing incorrectly. I would love to see Tulo, CarGo, or Fowler in a Mets uniform without thinking twice. Cuddyer is 36 and has missed 200 games in the past three years. That’s just not a good guy to sign.
Matt B.
excellent write-up
Jeff Todd
Thanks!
rct 2
My dream scenario if trading off a few pieces like Colon and Murphy (and either Niese or Gee) and using the money saved to go after Tomas. Go with Tomas in LF, and either use whatever you’ve acquired for SS with Flores/Herrera at 2B, or go with Flores at SS and Herrera at 2B. Signing a platoon bat for Duda or just using Campbell or Satin more frequently would help as well. Let the younger guys develop and use 2015 as a stepping stone to becoming division title contenders in 2016.
MetsTalk5
I can see mets doing a deal like Gee for scott van slyke
paqza
I’ve been a champion for SVS since the end of the 2013 season and I think the Dodgers would have to seriously consider Niese for Van Slyke. His velo is dropping despite him putting up solid numbers in 2014 and his salary is increasing. That trade would give the Mets a power hitting RF who also plays 1B in addition to clearing several million in salary. I’m really not convinced by Tomás – a guy who seems more comparable to Dariel Álvarez or César Puello based than Céspedes or Abreu based on what he’s done so far. And Céspedes, who was far better than Tomás in Cuba, has struggled to put up strong offensive numbers because his poor walk rate detracts so significantly from his overall offense.
Out of place Met fan
Murphy for Fowler
paqza
Fowler would be a great add – he’d be their lead-off guy, add a switch hitter to the lineup, and sure up defense as he should still be decent in a corner. He’s also only under contract for one more year.
NateW
nice all encompassing look at the team.
One more LH RP option is Scott Rice. Injury marred year after being Collin’s LH whipping boy in 2013, and for half the cost of Eveland.
I would prefer to see the Mets add a more glove first SS over someone like Drew. I think pairing that player with Murphy or more likely Flores at 2B will help shore up both sides of the ball.
Kenz aFan
Shouldn’t this article be in the 2014-15-offseason-outlook section?
With it being tagged in here, is gonna make it harder to find any tagged articles with the wrong tags.
ezrider
A tad late to to the party but two FA that intrigue me for the Mets would be Zach Duke as a LHP out of the pen and Mark Reynolds to pair with Duda at first. Also some nice pop off the bench from Reynolds.
I’d still like to see DenDekker and Flores get a real chance to lose the RF and SS jobs respectively. Find a real infield back up to compliment the bench and a solid RH hitter to pair with MdD in the OF and maybe spell Grandy a bit here and there. Cuddyer a Rios would more likely cost some and warrant more playing time but a Johnny Gomes or trade for Cody Ross type could work. A trade for Ross and Gregorius from the D’backs could be good if we didn’t need to give up too much.
paqza
Zach Duke would be a good get depending on his price. His numbers were better than Edgin’s. Will Smith would probably make more sense if the Mets are looking for a LOOGY though – his numbers against lefties are much better than Zach Duke’s. Mark Reynolds and his .173 AVG against lefties in 2014 combined with his high Ks lead me to believe the Mets would be better off going with a guy like Campbell – cheaper, younger, better, with more positional flexibility – to spell Duda. Reynolds shouldn’t even be in the Major Leagues.
Cuddyer is too old and injured to make sense for the Mets and Rios still hits lefties well although Puello also hits lefties well and has continued to do so even during his struggles at Vegas (.942 OPS vs lefties IIRC, and 1.324 OPS vs lefties in Binghamton). Ross is another guy you mention who was good 5 years ago but really should retire, so it would make no sense for the Mets to acquire him unless it’s for a coaching position. Gregorius can’t hit lefties at all and hasn’t really shown he can hit Major League pitching – I’m not sure where he’d fit in exactly because so far, it looks like Flores’ offense would more than make up the difference in Gregorius’ fielding.
Overall, I think you’re right on building from within but are looking at what guys did 5 years ago vs who they are currently when looking at guys like Rios, Cuddyer, Reynolds, Gomes, and Ross.
ezrider
Can’t and won’t argue with any of that. Thanks.
$6544906
Great article Jeff! A few questions; if (and probably no shot), but if the Mets were to attempt to trade Granderson, how much of his salary do you think we would have to eat? Second, given another article in this site suggests that Cespedes is possibly available, any chance the Mets might consider trading for him? Finally, are the Mets even in the running for guys like Markakis or Cuddyer? Thanks and once again very informative article.
Yazzy
I am not sure why everyone on this site is so interested in trading with the Cubs? We have both Matt Reynolds and Wilmer Flores so one of them will be our SS and the other might become a super sub. There is nothing we need from the Cubs as they are not going to trade Soler for Noah. I’d rather keep Noah and sign Mchael Morse to play RF/IB, and move Grandy over to LF which is an easier field to throw to the plate from then right field is so this would help Grandy with his throwing problems. If we platoon Morse with den Dekker and Kirk it might work well. Morse will also play 1st base when lefties are throwing as Dude has shown he is unable to hit against them. The Mets need another backup right hand hitting outfielder and I am not taking about Eric Young,Jr. cuz he hits much better from the left side of the plate. I really like Emilio Bonifacio who is fast, plays good defense in the OF and at 2B, and hits better from the right side of the dish. Remember that Morse is injury prone but when he is healthy he can hit. The problem with Morse is his lack of range in the outfield and we all know that does not play well at Citi field. Of course we could readily solve this issue by trading Bobby Parnell once he proves he is healthy as part of a package for Cespedes. Morse, den Dekker, Kirk, Grandy and Bonifacio might be a decent outfield if the Mets don’t pull the trigger on Cespedes