After spending much of the 2014 season in first place and then collapsing down the stretch, the Brewers will try to regroup for 2015, perhaps hoping for the best with a talented but flawed core and a marginal, though improving, farm system.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ryan Braun, OF: $117MM through 2020
- Matt Garza, SP: $37.5MM through 2017
- Carlos Gomez, OF: $17MM through 2016
- Kyle Lohse, SP: $11MM through 2015
- Jonathan Broxton, RP: $11MM through 2015
- Jonathan Lucroy, C: $7.25MM through 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Gerardo Parra, OF (5.145): $6.4MM
- Marco Estrada, P (5.035): $4.7MM
- Brandon Kintzler, RP (3.101): $900K
- Martin Maldonado, C (2.156): $1M
- Non-tender candidates: Estrada, Parra, Kintzler
Contract Options
- Aramis Ramirez, 3B: $14MM mutual option, $4MM buyout
- Yovani Gallardo, SP: $13MM club option, $600K buyout
- Rickie Weeks, 2B: $11.5MM club/vesting option
Free Agents
The Brewers unexpectedly got off to a great start in 2014 and continued that hot start into the summer, with a 51-32 record as of June 28. As the first half of the season became the second, however, the 6 1/2-game lead they had held over the Cardinals evaporated, and in the end they missed the playoffs and barely finished above .500.
The Brewers retained manager Ron Roenicke following their collapse, although they dismissed hitting coach Johnny Narron and first base/infield coach Garth Iorg. Despite any lingering frustrations, it appears unlikely they’ll make many huge moves this offseason.
One position they will likely upgrade is first base, where they’ve struggled to find a reliable contributor since Corey Hart’s last healthy season with the team in 2012. Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay platooned at the position in 2014 and, unsurprisingly, neither of them helped much. Reynolds hit 22 home runs in 433 plate appearances, but with his usual very low batting average and a .287 OBP. Both are free agents; Overbay appears likely to retire. Adam LaRoche (whose mutual option the Nationals are likely to decline) looks like the prize of this year’s free agent class, with the injury-prone Michael Cuddyer and the defensively challenged Michael Morse close behind. The Brewers could also lean on rookies Matt Clark and Jason Rogers, who both hit well with Triple-A Nashville, although both are minor league veterans who might not have much to offer at the big-league level.
The Brewers will also need to figure out what to do with Aramis Ramirez. Given his $4MM buyout, Ramirez’ $14MM mutual option is effectively $10MM for the Brewers. They would be wise to exercise their end, given that Ramirez produced a reasonable 2.1 fWAR while hitting .285/.330/.427 last season. Ramirez would not get the buyout if he were to decline his end, so it might make sense for him to accept his end of the option, particularly if he intends to retire after 2015. He could also decline the option and seek a multi-year deal, however. Ramirez said in July that he planned to reach 2,500 games for his career, which would take at least three more seasons, but he also said in September that he was not sure whether he would play in 2015. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts that Ramirez will ultimately re-sign with the Brewers for two years and $26MM.
The middle infield is mostly set with Scooter Gennett and Jean Segura, although Segura took a big step backward after a strong rookie season in 2013. The Brewers will surely decline their $11.5MM option on Rickie Weeks, who didn’t get enough plate appearances for his option to vest. The 2003 No. 2 overall pick doesn’t expect to be back in Milwaukee in 2015. If he isn’t, the Brewers could pursue a cheap right-handed infielder to platoon with Gennett, or have Hector Gomez, who had a good season at Nashville and is out of options, occupy that role.
The Brewers could also continue with Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Khris Davis in the outfield. Gomez continues to produce at an extremely high level and is a bargain at just $17MM total through the next two seasons. Braun, though, struggled in 2014 (hitting .266/.324/.453, not a good figure for a player with little defensive value), and the $117MM he’s owed through 2020 looks like it could become a problem. Perhaps a healthier Braun (he suffered from a thumb injury this season and has already had unusual surgery to freeze a nerve) can rebound in 2015.
The Brewers could retain Gerardo Parra as an outfield backup — it’s hard to pass on an average hitter and elite defender (although defensive metrics weren’t keen on his 2014 performance). Still, Parra is coming off a disappointing season and will get a modest raise on his $4.85MM 2013 salary, making him an expensive backup. Dealing or non-tendering him might be a way for the Brewers to free up salary. Another possibility might be to move Braun to first base and have Parra start in right field.
Behind the plate, of course, there’s Jonathan Lucroy, who is, like Gomez, an elite, prime-age player signed to a bargain contract. Lucroy’s five-year deal is among the most team-friendly in baseball — it guarantees an MVP-caliber player a mere $11MM and gives the Brewers an option on what would have been Lucroy’s first free agent season (2017) for just $5.25MM.
In the rotation, the Brewers have already decided to exercise their $13MM option on Yovani Gallardo, and they also have Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse under contract and a reasonable collection of pre-free agency pitchers in Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers and promising newcomer Jimmy Nelson. Marco Estrada could be a non-tender candidate after allowing 29 homers in 150 2/3 innings in 2014, although he’ll still be fairly cheap and his other peripherals were reasonable. The Brewers don’t figure to be big players for free agent starting pitching.
Their bullpen will be trickier. Closer Francisco Rodriguez and lefties Zach Duke and Tom Gorzelanny will all be eligible for free agency. Duke emerged from oblivion to become the Brewers’ best reliever in 2014, posting a 2.45 ERA with a remarkable 11.4 K/9 in 58 2/3 innings, and his production will be difficult to replace if he departs.
The bullpen’s season demonstrated how crucial a good relief corps can be. Rodriguez, Duke, Tyler Thornburg and Will Smith dominated in the early going, leading the Brewers as they jumped to the division lead. During that time, however, those relievers piled up appearances as little-used Rule 5 pick Wei-Chung Wang occupied a bullpen spot that could have gone to someone capable of soaking up innings. Rodriguez couldn’t keep up his early pace, Smith imploded in July, and Thornburg faded in May and eventually ended up on the DL with an elbow injury. The team also lost Jim Henderson to shoulder problems. Finally, they acquired Jonathan Broxton — and his entire $9MM 2015 salary, plus a $2MM buyout — from the Reds in an attempt to stop the bleeding.
In March and April, the Brewers had the fourth-best bullpen ERA in baseball, at 2.45; in the second half, it was more than a run higher, at 3.62. While variance in bullpen performance is normal, and the team did get some good work from second-tier relievers like Gorzelanny and Jeremy Jeffress, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Brewers attempt to avoid last season’s struggles by pursuing bullpen depth this winter. Re-signing or replacing Rodriguez at closer could also be a priority.
Despite the trajectory of their 2014 season, the Brewers’ 82-80 record was about what they should have expected, given their talent. The question is what they’ll do from here. Having two excellent and cheap players in Gomez and Lucroy is a strong place for any franchise to start, but the Brewers’ complementary pieces aren’t nearly as valuable, and it’s unclear where their next group of stars will come from. Including Gallardo’s option, the Brewers already have about $70MM on the books for 2015. Retaining Ramirez will add to that total, as will arbitration raises for Parra, Estrada and catcher Martin Maldonado (assuming Parra and Estrada are retained). The Brewers will need to address first base as well, which should leave them without much money to make a big splash this offseason, given that their highest ever Opening Day payroll was their 2014 total of about $103MM. Perhaps their best shot at an attention-grabbing signing would be if they acquired someone like Chase Headley to play third base, and that would only happen if Ramirez left.
An infusion of star talent doesn’t appear imminent from the minors, either. The Brewers’ farm system has improved after a strong 2014 draft, but they don’t currently have anyone in MLB.com’s list of the top 100 prospects in the game, and their best talents (Tyrone Taylor, Orlando Arcia, and top 2014 draftees Kodi Medeiros, Jacob Gatewood and Monte Harrison) have little or no experience in the high minors.
The Brewers are therefore in a tight spot. They don’t appear to be as good as the Cardinals or Pirates, and perhaps they soon won’t be as good as the rapidly improving Cubs. But given the state of their farm system, a rebuild would potentially be long and painful. And as the team’s outstanding 2014 first half suggested, the Brewers are still probably good enough to win an NL Central title or a Wild Card if everything breaks right. If Gomez and Lucroy were to maintain their production in 2015, if Braun and possibly Segura were to return to form, and if a couple more players (Davis and Nelson, say) were to break out, it wouldn’t be a shock if the team won 88 games or so and made the playoffs.
Given that possibility, rebuilding can wait. But if the Brewers get off to a poor start in 2015, expect to hear plenty of rumors about their veterans. In particular, Gallardo, Lohse and Broxton, who can all become free agents after 2015, would likely be fair game.
That Braun contract looks worse and worse every time I see it. Lucroy’s contract is a great deal for the Brewers though. He had a nice year.
I get the contract, and it was an extremely good price for them at the time. He has fallen off a lot though, and not good when you still have another 6 years of that.
Right. Braun was productive at the time of the extension and had great years in 2011 and 2012, but has regressed drastically the last 2 years.
Braun was playing with a thumb injury for the majority of the year. 1 season isn’t enough to say that the contract will be bad.
It’s a pretty severe thumb injury though.
Similar to Pedroia’s?
There haven’t been any reports about nerve damage in Pedroia’s thumb, so no.
Recent reports said the treatment he received after the season has made a difference. I believe they froze the nerves during the procedure and Braun hasn’t felt any pain during batting practice since.
The problem for Braun wasn’t pain, but numbness–he couldn’t feel his grip on the bat. I’m hoping for the best with the surgery but I not too optimistic.
It could be an injury that basically ends his career as a productive player or it may no longer affect him in a significant way going forward.
Well, he IS off of PEDs, so maybe it is that?
Then explain Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and Jhonny Peralta. They were busted for PEDs as well. They had great seasons.
I’m guessing they don’t non-tender Estrada, rolling the dice that his value will more closely resemble the previous two years. He’s not very expensive and, if his 2014 is the worst you can expect for 2015, is within about a million bucks of his value. If, on the other hand, he shows more of his 2012-13 form in 2015, then he’s a bargain by like four million dollars. That’s a gamble worth taking.
Personally, I’d non-tender him. Unless they move a Starter in trade. The club has too many SP options going in to 2015 that Nelson’s Reliever role and price tag for it will be too high. Especially due to Broxton’s high price tag. Gotta shave money somewhere.
I think they should pick up the option for Ramirez and if he declines don’t offer him a QO(saave the 4mil off the option basically) and instead go after Chase Headley.
Headley would give them much better defense(something the team has lacked) and a long term option at the hot corner.
Offering Headley a 4 year/$48M deal like MLBTR suggests he will receive still allows the Brewers some flexibility while shoring up their biggest weakness/hole based on available internal options. a platoon of Clark/Rogers could be serviceable at 1B next season with the hope one stands out enough to takeover full time going forward.
Lots of competition for Headley. Unlikely he decides to move to Milwaukee (one of my favorite cities, I would add, but not a glam location).
True, but many of his possible destinations are not sure things. The Yankees have to find room for him and A-Rod; Blue Jays might not be able to afford him and resign Cabrera or play Lawrie at 3B and sign a 2B; Washington could follow the Blue Jays lead and keep Rendon at third while signing a 2B; Royals likely will stick with Moustakas after his impressive postseason; Red Sox appear to be going after the Panda; leaving the Brewers, Giants and Astros (if he doesn’t mind losing for a few seasons). The Brewers could definitely be on Headley’s short list of preferred destinations once his market starts to form.
Players hardly care what the city is like. They play half their games away from the home stadium and in the off-season almost all live elsewhere anyway.
It is a factor but pretty minor when all said and done. He wants money over anything imo.
Their rotation should be a strength. I would look to move either Lohse or Gallardo, start Nelson in his place freeing up money to sign LaRoche and Headley. If we do move either Lohse or Gallardo, Estrada can now be kept for depth.
Moving such a reliable starter(as far as year to year numbers go) like Lohse or Gallardo would be extremely risky. The other problem I have with your idea is keeping a $6mil long reliever. That money could instead be used on real bullpen arms.
I’d much rather keep the rotation intact. Dropping Ramirez in favor of Headley makes a lot of sense and even if they did that they still would have enough money for a real 1st baseman.
I think the Brewers have enough money to retool without freeing up a starters contract.
Are you forgetting about Nelson? IF the Brewers keep Lohse/Gallardo then Nelson is a Bullpen RP, he or else Fiers and I imagine Fiers is the #5 after his finish til otherwise he blows his spot or Nelson flat out dominates and earns one.
Or, you trade Lohse or Gallardo and there isn’t A who’s the #5 SP and who gets misused in the Bullpen? There is 10.5 to 12.5mil saved with such a trade to use towards the bullpen…Or a Platoon saving Middle INF.
It’s fairly dumb imo to stack your team 7 deep with rotation potentials and another 1 or 2 on the way in AAA wasting 2-4 roster spots now on SPs playing relievers. Especially when they all are virtually the same expectation-wise. None of them are #2 SPs. None of them are #5 SPs. They are all #3s/#4 Rotation arms. 3.3ERA with Luck to 4.25ERA when not lucky but basically in the 3.8ERA mid ground range.
Now, If Nelson/Fiers/Jungmann/Pena/Smith surge in to Elite RP status with the move from starter, then it opens up their new role vs Starter. It’s just I don’t know they have something elite in their pitching repertoire to be that kind of Reliever.
The 2014 Brewers are a prime example of why a contending major league franchise should never retain a rule 5 pick that is not going to be an immediate benefit to their team. Wang is/was ill-prepared to to face major league hitters, and yet, the Brewer management opted to overuse an overworked bullpen rather than acknowledge their mistake of shielding Wang on their roster. It is no wonder that the strongest first-half team in baseball became a fatigued team during the second half- that’s what will happen when a team attempts to compete one major leaguer short of a full roster for half a season.
Not really. The reason for their second half collapse was their offense, as virtually everyone saw a clear decline in their numbers between pre-all star and post-all star production.
As for the bullpen specifically, the injuries to Henderson and Thornburg were the most damaging, as it limited the effective options Roenicke could rely upon (to K-Rod, Smith, Duke). Also, Henderson was hurt prior to the season and Thornburg has had questionable mechanics all throughout his career – if you plan on blaming their injuries on Wang’s presence.
He was the mop up guy. He was better than most mop up guys I’d guess. He also could have been better in my estimation if Roenicke didn’t bury him. The problems with the bullpen were due to Roenicke and not a lack of arms. I’d guess the bullpen was toward the bottom of the league in innings pitched the 2nd half.
The Brewers played too much of their season short-handed- 24 major league players on their roster, and one warm body to throwing batting practice to the opposition’s hitters. “Mop up guy” wouldn’t describe Wang’s role on the team. How about “sacrificial lamb”?
Tom Gorzelanny basically took over Wang’s role in the bullpen after Wang went on the DL. Gorzelanny then pitched roughly 25 innings. Didn’t matter who was in that spot in the bullpen, he wasn’t going to get used much. It’s mostly the same very year. Just look at Tim Dillard’s major league usage. Wei-Chung Wang was in on way responsible for the Brewers collapse or the injuries to Jim Henderson and Tyler Thornburg.
I’m not aware of the details of the Brewers situation. But I find it hard to believe that the reason a team had a 2nd half collapse after leading their division for so long, was due to keeping a guy on the 25 man roster. Teams call up and send down players down to the minors literally daily. And in September the rosters are expanded.
It had no effect at all. If they needed a long man to eat innings they just kept switching guys. For example if one pitchers came in for a blowout and pitched 3+ innings they sent him down and brought a new guy up.
They only had three reliable pitchers, that was the problem in the bullpen.
Saying it had no effect is a little drastic. I mean, we played half the season with a guy who wasn’t ready to face major league hitters. That made us go to our other relievers more often. We rarely used a single guy for 3+ innings and sent him down. We did that maybe twice with Alfredo Figaro. But otherwise, we still used our important relievers. Will Smith was a big one who got overused early on. Now, placing the blame for an overworked bullpen solely on keeping Wang on the roster is not accurate, I will say that. The blame should be assigned to Ron Roenicke, who made the decision to not use Wang in blowouts, and to use his important relievers in blowouts. Wang came in more often than he should have in important games (I’m remembering a game against the Pirates where he came in in a 3-2 game in the 8th inning, and gave up something like 8 runs), and less often than he should have in blowouts. It was terrible mismanagement of the bullpen from Roenicke, which we have come to expect.
If I were the Brewers, I’d consider moving Will Smith back into the rotation. He showed glimpses of a solid mid-rotation guy when with the Royals, especially in AAA in 2013.
And take out who?
It’s not like the Brewers have a stacked rotation – a lefty putting up a ~3.5 ERA/FIP/xFIP shouldn’t have a problem breaking into it.
Smith has pronounced splits. Righties crushed him. Putting him in the rotation appears to be a non-option.
You can agree with it or not, but they won’t take Garza, Gallardo or Lohse out. Fiers and Peralta did pretty well. Estrada is in the mix. None of them other than maybe Estrada seem particularly well suited to relief and putting Smith in the rotation means a LH reliever has to be acquired.
There is no chance Gallardo, Garza, Lohse, or Peralta get moved out of the rotation. So that leaves one spot and I’m not sure why a guy who has pretty bad stats as a starter(hitters bat .300+ against him), a 3.50ERA as a reliever, and has never thrown over 75 pitches is a good guy for that spot.
Actually I can’t think of one reason why I would pick him over Nelson, Fiers, or even Estrada.
I take it you haven’t looked at his AAA numbers as a starter?
Should I care about his numbers as a starter in AAA? Sorry but I’m taking his major league numbers any day of the week. As a reliever or starter…doesn’t matter.
That’s not a good strategy when guys have limited sample sizes.
I’m sorry but no way is Smith going to jump in to the rotation when the team has Fiers/Nelson to fill out their 5th spot. Plus they have Estrada to consider and there’s Jungmann who’s just wasting life on his arm if they continue him in AAA. He doesn’t have much more to prove. Smith was very, good vs. Leftys, and had a poor split vs. Righties. Needs to stay in the Bullpen.
The only way Kintzler is non-tendered is if he isn’t healthy.
Roenicke likes to load a lineup with opposite hand hitters if he can, but they likely won’t have a platoon partner for Gennett and it would probably not have much benefit.
If they don’t resign Krod, they’ll put Broxton in the closer role.
They should put Rogers and Clark on the roster and skip signing an old guy contract for someone at first, but I’d guess Melvin would go the opposite.
Saying they don’t have star level talent in the upper minors doesn’t mean much in my opinion. Fiers like Gennett wasn’t a major leaguer. Davis was a 4th OF. Peralta was a reliever. Nelson is a reliever. The experts would respond with “oh well, prospects…”
If they went with Rogers/Clark at 1st and gave Aramis a couple years to get the one good one, all that Melvin would have to do is find a LH reliever. It’d be great to get Duke back but he’s earned some good coin.
It’s a young team loaded with talent. Maybe I’m wrong, but I get the sense that Melvin won’t be able to overcome his desire to add a Mark Kotsay or two to the roster. Once they’re there, they’ll play no matter how bad they are.
Gennett absolutely should be platooned. He’s never been able to hit lefties and that’s never going to change. No, not even with more practice. It’s been 5 years since he started professional ball and he’s only gotten worse.
I like Clark and Rogers but they could very easily be awful at the major league level. They should, and very probably will, sign a veteran that can handle the position. It won’t be a superstar, but they don’t him to be.
I’ve seen 2 sets of numbers on Gennett’s minor league years. One set says he did hit lefties. Using numbers in the majors from PH appearances for a rookie or 2nd year guy isn’t illustrative of much in my opinion either. He wasn’t able to play defense or even hit in the major leagues according to experts. He absolutely should be tried full time.
A veteran could very easily be awful at 1st. If Clark or Rogers struggle they can be sent down or released. The veteran will cost many times what they will and with Melvin, the contract plays. He never admits mistakes either. Morris might be an option later. If they sign LaRoche or some other guy at the end of his career, they’re likely going to want a couple years and Clark will be long gone and Rogers will get the hose job of having a couple spot starts and some PH appearances in a September call up and that’ll be it for him.
If Clark, Rogers or Morris succeed it will be a huge value going forward as well rather than having a failed FA plays or Melvin does the whole song and dance again with some other old, should be retired retread.
Thinking Gennett can hit lefties is a total pipe dream at this point. I don’t need an expert to tell me he can’t hit lefties…it is pretty brutal to watch him swing vs. Lefties. Even with vast improvements he will still be well below average.
Do you think they should trade him for a reliever or something and bring back Weeks?
11Ks in 42 PAs. He still puts the ball in play vs. Lefties. I’d agree with you he’s a lost cause vs Lefties, if he had something like 27 or more Ks in those 42PAs. But it was just 11. Far more RH Starting PItchers than Leftys so it’s pointless to waste a Roster spot on a 2b Platoon partner. Someone mentions how Wang’s roster spot taking cost this team. How about Weeks? 2 Players on a team that can Only play 2b?
If there’s going to be a Platoon situation find a Lefty SS for Segura to platoon him with and play Segura at 2b. It’d work better if this Lefty SS could also play 3b or say LF for Davis.
Not a Brewers fan here but two FA coming off the Crews books would fit nice in Flushing with the Mets. Zach Duke and Mark Reynolds. Fills two needs for us in the pen and to platoon with Duda at 1st.
i’d like to see the Mets try and sign Duke and Reynolds.
Why would the Brewers non-tender Kintzler? He was one of their best relievers after the All-Star Break and was solid against lefties and (to a lesser extent) righties. Sure, he wasn’t as good as he was last year but I’d say it’s worth rolling the dice on him hoping he can recapture his 2013 form, especially when it only costs $900K to retain him.
Kinztler wasn’t as good as his numbers appear. He was saved numerous times from inherited runners of his coming around to show what his true ERA would have been. Around 5. Nothing is impressive about Kinztler. His pitches aren’t special. He’s declining as a Pitcher, you don’t shove him back out there when there are going to be far, far better options to acquire or use in his roster spot.
The Pirates will be more than happy to trade 1bman Ike Davis to the Brewers!!!1
Dierkes is way off on his speculation for Ramirez. No way he gets a 2 year deal from the Brewers. He was very unproductive from the time in late June the Brewers reached their high water mark of 19 games over .500. From then on he hit a grand total of 4 HR and drove in a paltry 26 runs. I’d say the chances of the Brewers picking up his 2015 option are 50-50 at best. No way they go two years. Ramirez is very similar offensively to Paul Konerko. Once Konerko reached 37, his production fell dramatically. Ramirez turns 37 next June.
while i agree with you, there isn’t too much supply to the demand the brewers provide…
Ramirez hit .380 in August….
I could see them offering him a 2 year 16 Mil deal with incentives for games played.
i don’t really like parra’s bat in right field, but i like it better than braun’s glove out there … especially if brauny can play first base