Last year’s offseason was dedicated in large part to the future, with a series of extensions and key financial moves, but the Braves were well-stocked with talent at the major league level and looked promising to start the 2014 season. After weathering significant pitching injuries early on, however, Atlanta faded badly down the stretch and is now staring at front office changes, a tight budget, difficult decisions, and rising competition in the division.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $127MM through 2021
- Andrelton Simmons, SS: $56MM through 2020
- B.J. Upton, OF: $46.35MM through 2017
- Craig Kimbrel, RP: $34MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Julio Teheran, SP: $30.6MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
- Chris Johnson, 3B: $23.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Justin Upton, OF: $14.5MM through 2015
- Jason Heyward, OF: $8.3MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Kris Medlen, SP (5.137): $5.8MM projected salary
- Jonny Venters, RP (5.000): $1.63MM
- James Russell, RP (5.000): $2.4MM
- Ramiro Pena, UT (4.089): $900K
- Jordan Walden, RP (4.043): $3.0MM
- Brandon Beachy, SP (4.014):$1.45MM
- Mike Minor, SP (3.138): $5.1MM
- David Carpenter, RP (3.016): $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Venters
Free Agents
Other Obligations
- Dan Uggla: $13.2MM
Every organization responds differently when it feels that change is needed, and for the Braves, the sense seems to be that a restoration is in order. John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox are still the most powerful figures in the organization, and Frank Wren’s departure will apparently not be met with a broad search for fresh blood in the GM seat. Interim GM John Hart was offered the post full-time, but it still remains unclear whether that is in the cards. Otherwise, the Braves will seemingly look first (and possibly only) at familiar faces such as assistant GM John Coppolella and former assistant GM (and current Royals GM) Dayton Moore. (Recently-resigned Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd, Hart’s former AGM with the Indians, has also been mentioned as a possibility, though MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that he does not see O’Dowd as a candidate.) The organization has already set out to get the band back together in the scouting arena, bringing back figures such as Roy Clark and Dave Trembley.
The bottom line: Atlanta’s leadership does not believe that its player intake and development system is producing, and that determination seems to be the chief driver at this point. But with the organization ramping up for a critical new ballpark opening in 2017, what does it all mean for the big league club?
The key issue at the MLB level is, as ever, resource constraints. While Atlanta’s talent level remains high, the team has needs. And while last year’s run of extensions look like good investments overall, the Chris Johnson deal aside, they do not leave a ton of payroll flexibility moving forward. (Of course, the alternative would have been to pay bigger arbitration dollars while possibly losing key pieces to free agency down the line.) Last year’s franchise-record $112MM Opening Day payroll, which resulted in the team’s first losing season since 2008, seems unlikely to be repeated. How much spending capacity will remain? The club already has just under $80MM on the books for 2015, and could dedicate as much as $21MM+ if it tenders arbitration contracts to all of its eligible players.
Non-tenders and trades could free some dollars, but that means difficult choices are fast approaching. Qualifying offers must be made within five days of the end of the World Series, while decisions on arb-eligible players are due December 2nd.
A new GM will surely have a key role in determining the path forward, but given the timeline, the organization may well largely know already what it will do with players in those contractual situations. Indeed, as Hart has indicated, the general strategy appears to be in place. “We don’t need an overhaul,” said Hart. “It’s not a disaster. But there are certainly some things we need to take a look [at].” Acknowledging the “economic challenges” facing the team in building out its roster, Hart added that larger moves are likelier to come via trade than signing.
Regardless of how the decisions are made, a key set of issues involves the rotation, where several important pieces require action. To begin, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, and Gavin Floyd will be free agents, subject to the qualifying offer process. The former seems a good bet to receive a $15.3MM QO, though that is hardly a clear case given the Braves’ financial limitations. It seems unlikely he would accept, since his downside scenario might be another one-year deal at that level of pay, and Atlanta will surely be tempted by the chance of obtaining draft compensation. The likeliest scenario appears to be that he will receive and reject an offer, and find a new club. Harang, meanwhile, could make sense, but barring a late effort at a new deal he’ll have a chance to test the market. And while another attempt at rehabbing Floyd could in theory take place again in Atlanta, he seems unlikely to open the year in any club’s starting five.
If those three arms move on, the rotation will have just three clear members: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Mike Minor. (In spite of his struggles, Minor has too much ability and makes too much financial sense not to have a clear shot at a role.) David Hale is perhaps the likeliest younger player to be a promotion candidate, though Cody Martin may also get a shot after two solid runs at Triple-A.
Otherwise, the Braves will have to decide how to proceed with the two players whose season-ending injuries led to Santana’s signing last year: Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. Both are working back from their second Tommy John procedures, which generally come with longer rehab periods and a lower incidence of successful recovery. Given their 2014 arbitration salaries ($5.8MM and $1.45MM, respectively), a non-tender of the former must at least be considered, though Medlen’s established performance baseline is probably too good to pass up. The team could look to work out a less financially onerous arrangement, possibly including a future option in the manner of the D’backs’ deal with Daniel Hudson. (Note that Medlen would be set to reach free agency after the year.)
Even if Medlen and Beachy have successful rehabs, an Opening Day return seems highly unlikely given that the pair was operated on in mid-March. The team could look at the free agent market for further depth. A Floyd-like bid for Brett Anderson would deliver upside, but may not suit the team’s needs. The likelier outcome, perhaps, would be to bring back Harang (though that could well require a two-year deal) or someone in his mold to bridge the gap and provide depth. Innings-eaters on the market include names like Ryan Vogelsong, Colby Lewis, and Kyle Kendrick.
All said, targeting a starter via trade could make sense for the Braves, as Hart suggested. The club is not without options for dealing from its big league roster. I recently explored the possibility of dealing backstop Evan Gattis, with youngster Christian Bethancourt taking over the regular role. Moving the pre-arb Gattis, however, would not deliver any immediate cost savings – indeed, finding a new backup (or re-signing Gerald Laird) would probably add payroll. While Gattis is probably not enough of an asset to bring back a starter who is both cost-controlled and an established producer, the Braves might find enough of those attributes to make a deal attractive.
If Atlanta really wants to add an arm with significant current and future value, it will likely need to consider parting with one of its quality corner outfielders. Both Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are entering their final year of control, but are young enough that an acquiring team could place significant value on exclusive rights to negotiate an extension. Of course, that pair accounted for a significant piece of the club’s production last year, so the return would have to be substantial. As others have suggested, it could make sense to explore a long-term deal with one or both while also gauging trade interest in a bid to address other areas of need and possibly add a player with more control. Extending one while dealing the other makes some sense, though the ability to pull off that feat will depend upon other actors (the players and prospective trade partners). One interesting possibility noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes would be a swap with the Reds involving Heyward and Johnny Cueto; if both clubs cannot find something else to their liking, such a move might better align with their respective needs in 2015.
Of course, unlike the catching situation, there is no obvious corner outfielder ready to step into a regular role. Among the team’s near-MLB prospects, the best of whom are mostly pitchers, Todd Cunningham is a possibility to take over a slot. But while the 25-year-old improved upon his first go at Triple-A, and is said to be a good defender capable of playing center, he managed only a .287/.347/.406 line with 8 home runs and 19 steals last year at Gwinnett. Other possibilities include a trade of a pitching prospect for an affordable, younger outfielder, a dip into a free agent market that includes names like Norichika Aoki and Alex Rios, or a combination of the above in search of a productive platoon.
Then, there is the fact that the team already has questions in center, where a struggling and expensive B.J. Upton looks nearly immovable. Last we heard, the Braves and Cubs intended to revisit the possibility of a bad-contract swap also involving Edwin Jackson. Otherwise, unless someone like Cunningham delivers a big spring, Atlanta could be forced to put Upton back in the lineup and hope for a turnaround.
The infield, at least, is much more settled. First baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Andrelton Simmons are perhaps the only names sure to be written into the Opening Day lineup card, though the rest of the diamond will almost certainly be filled internally as well. Third baseman Chris Johnson is likely to have a chance to return to his 2013 levels, given that his extension does not even kick in until this year, though he may soon be challenged by prospect Kyle Kubitza. And at second, the Braves will wait out the tail end of the disappointing Dan Uggla contract — since he was released, there is no longer any hope of saving any cash — while fielding second-year player Tommy La Stella. Of course, the much-hyped 20-year-old Jose Peraza could become a factor if he continues to impress, though he has taken only 195 plate appearances at the Double-A level.
The bullpen, likewise, seems destined to continue in much the same form as last year. Craig Kimbrel, David Carpenter, Jordan Walden, and James Russell make up a strong back end. And a series of other arms – Anthony Varvaro, Shae Simmons, Chasen Shreve, and Luis Avilan among them – deliver ample depth. Though none of these arms (Kimbrel excepted) will make a large mark on the balance sheet, it is possible to imagine Atlanta dealing from depth to sweeten the pot in a larger trade while potentially freeing up a little bit of extra spending capacity. The team will likely need to try to work something out to keep Jonny Venters; the outstanding 29-year-old lefty is attempting a rare return from a third Tommy John procedure, and his arb price tag looks steep given that he did not even receive his latest UCL replacement until the end of August.
In the end, the Braves continue to be a team with plenty of talent, and it would not be surprising to see a rebound year. But given the financial constraints, the front office’s own seemingly negative take on the talent pipeline, and the looming free agency of Heyward and Upton, Atlanta will need to balance carefully the present with the future. Though dealing away expiring contracts for prospects holds some facial appeal, and the 2017 ballpark opening looms large from a business perspective, Atlanta has not been known to take that tack in the past. Creativity, then, will be the key; but first the front office situation will need to be decided.
Would like to see them give Nyjer Morgan a shot at CF. If he can’t hold down the starting position, he’d make a speedy 4th outfielder/pinch runner
No way the Braves sign him. He is a fruitcake. Todd Cunningham at AAA makes a lot more sense.
Yeah, I know he’s not the best clubhouse presence, but the Braves are definite need of speed. If you look at their best seasons, the common theme is good starting pitching, good d up in the middle, and a speedy guy at the top three batting order.
He hasn’t really played in 2 years though. The Braves should get Jose Peraza up sometime next year and he stole 60 bases in the minors last year.
Agreed 100 percent. I’m just afraid they’re taking the slow approach with him.
We have a Nyjer Morgan, his name is Jose Constanza!
Haha Morgan isn’t that bad. At least, he has 30 and 40 SB seasons to his name. Odds are the Braves won’t have much room left in their budget to replace Upton. They’re getting to have to look at these type of cheap low risk / high potential contracts
Your argument about SB’s makes zero sense… have you seen Constanza’s SB numbers? He would steal just as many if not more bases than Morgan given equal playing time and at-bats.
But he hasn’t. That’s the point.
But he hasn’t what? He just stole 30 last year!
Not at the MLB level, that’s a big difference.
He hasn’t had the opportunity.
He’s had his opportunities in the past. Plus, if you can’t beat out BJ Upoton for playing time, well you know…
Had opportunities?? The most games he’s played is 42 in 2011 (11 of those games were as a defensive replacement) and he stole 7 bases (would equate to right at 30 bags (36 to be exact) over a full season)).
As a Tigers fan I’d trade them Price for Ju Upton/Heyward in a heartbeat. Heck throw in Alex Wood and we’ll give you Kinsler too.
Why would the Braves do that?
First I would trade BJ Upton Tood Cunningham and Alex Wood for Soler and Edwin Jackson then trade Gattis Pastornicky to the Brewers for Scooter Gennett and
Elian Herrera. Then I would sign Santana and Harang back move Beachy and Medlen to the bullpen and use them as spot starts and long extra innings relief
Wood is arguably our best starter and even if the Cubs would deal Soler for him, I wouldn’t do it (besides, to get the Cubs to take on Upton, we’d have to have a better player than Cunningham going to them). Brewers already have a better option at C in Lucroy (and Braun in LF) and while Gennett and Herrera would likely be upgrades over LaStella and Johnson, Pastornicky has almost zero trade value.
We can’t afford to sign Santana to a multi-year contract, and unless Harang is willing to go 1 year at around $5M (he wouldn’t be), I don’t think the risk is worth it for him.
Watching Bethancourt attempt to hit major league pitching over an entire season will be an absolute nightmare for Braves fans. They need to acquire more at the position. Losing Gattis would only multiply this problem. The structure is still there for a very competitive team. First order of business is dumping BJ Upton. Bourjos will be available on the cheap when the Cardinals eventually let him go. Terdoslavich is a more than serviceable backup for 1B/3b, so no need to make any moves there. The bullpen still looks great, so maybe just a minor piece there is required. Maybe you pick up De Aza as a fourth outfielder that can play all three positions. So really we are looking at needing a 2B and two or three starters. Rickie Weeks will be available and will be really affordable. He would be a great option and would compliment La Stella. Baker on another make-good contract fills one of those pitching holes. Maybe the Braves go a little out of their comfort zone and sign Liriano. Club still has the makings of a contender. Small tweaks and they’re right back in the thick of things. This is actually an enviable position that a new GM would be coming into.
I tend to agree that Bethancourt will struggle to hit major league pitching if his minor league numbers are any indication. But what would work is a platoon, he hits lefties well, so what the Braves need is a left-handed hitting catcher. If they can get that in a trade involving Gattis, then it would make sense
Do tell who this lefty hitting catcher is that a team would trade for Gattis? You could sign AJ Pierszynski and trade Gattis for some reasonable part.
I wrote a long post but it disappeared for some reason. Here is a shorter version. None of those options make a lot of sense for the braves. Weeks is worse than Uggla….and La Stella, Goose and Peraza are better than both of them. BJ can’t be dumped without the Braves paying his salary. Bourjos isn’t very good so I don’t know why the Braves would want him. Terdoslavich can’t play 3B. I do agree that Bethancourt hasn’t shown much at the major league level. IMO, the Braves should give Todd Cunningham a shot at the 4th OF role next year.
Terdoslavich is Ryan Doumit light…….has that possible power potential but that’s it. Strikes out a lot, slow and below average base runner, and is an absolute butcher with the glove when he’s playing somewhere other than 1B.
And the Braves thought so highly of Cunningham, they didn’t even bother to call him up in September even though he far outperformed Terdoslavich (who shouldn’t have been called up but was). He won’t get a shot unless the Braves literally find nothing on the FA/trade market for 4th OFs. Not disagreeing with you, just saying that’s what I think will happen.
I think one of the reasons that Wren/Manno lost their jobs was because of the fact that they sometimes refused to let certain players get a chance at the major league level. With them gone I am hopeful that Todd does finally get his chance.
Bourjos is probably the best defensive CF in baseball. Whatever he can provide offensively is a bonus, though I agree that our huge lack of offense makes him a bad fit for us. If we can upgrade at another position (maybe 3B or 2B), I would love to have him patrolling CF.
Yadier Molina started out as a defense only, light hitting catcher too, but he greatly improved offensively. He deserves a chance to prove he can do the same.
If you check the stats Molina was a MUCH better offensive catcher in the minors that Bethancourt. I’m also suspicious that Molina may have had some chemical “help” with his offense.
Terdo isn’t a third basemen at all. He makes Chris Johnson look like Terry Pendleton out there. Pendleton today would probably make a better 3b than Terdo. That said, Terdo’s bat is good enough to play in the bigs as a backup 1B/LF.
Why do Brave fans think anyone’s willing to take B.J. Upton with him providing
-1.7WAR over the last two seasons? He’s almost in Dan Uggla territory when it comes to nobody wanting to touch him with that terrible contract.
Mostly every Braves fan I’ve seen understands that if we want to trade him we are going to have to eat most of his contract or trade him for an equally bad one
The Braves will need to add a valuable asset with BJ in order to get the other team to take on some of his contract. Big payroll teams have done things like that in the past.
I’m never surprised at what the Braves accomplish but this team has issues. With their limited payroll being held hostage by Upton Sr., Uggla, Johnson and the multiple TJs killing their starting pitching depth it’s hard to see them getting into the playoffs.
A Heyward for Cueto deal would not work at all. Reds would have to throw several prospects in there, that’s an a cy young contender for a sub 0.750 ops right fielder.
You mean the Braves would have to throw some prospects in there?
Yes. Both players are on one year deals now. Sure it would be great to be on Heyward’s long term potential, being that he is only 25, but for the next year Cueto is a much better player. And that’s not really a knock on Heyward, just that Cueto is an Ace.
As a Braves fan I would never trade Heyward for Cueto anyway. Heyward is a good hitter, great defender, great base runner and a team leader. The Braves need to keep him, not trade him.
He is a good player, but I just see the Reds liking their chances with Cueto. I think they would be best served though trading for prospects. Hard to continue when so many guys are free agents at end year.
Yeah, I see what you are saying. I don’t think either team makes that trade. IMO, the Braves would be more interested in trading Justin than Jason.
Reds were willing to play Choo in center for a whole year. Not sure they would be the prime candidates to pay the premium for Heyward’s defensive skills in a corner, especially when they now have billy in center.
I could see Upton making sense for them, just it wouldn’t be for Cueto. I don’t see them moving him unless they are giving up, maybe they would go for Latos.
Yeah, I agree, I just don’t put a lot of stock in the .750 ops argument. Heyward has skills that go beyond his OPS and playing half his games in Cincy would likely boost his power numbers. However like you said the deal makes no sense for Cincy. Neither of those players are signing long term in Cincy. If your the Reds you might as well roll with the ace for a year as that has more upside than one year of Heyward. If you can get cost controlled talent or prospects for Cueto fine. If not roll the dice as is and collect the draft picks at the end of the year.
Might I reference something I said 2 years ago.
Regarding QO:
“Not something I think is great. Upton at this point is really
someone who is not worth more than $10M aav, and wouldn’t want to also
lose a draft pick for him. I think this has the making of a disaster
contract, his defense is overrated, and he didn’t even get his obp over
.300.
I think he will get more money, but I think it will be a huge mistake.”
I said the same thing. Sadly, my Braves were the ones that made the huge mistake.
Everyone said that, except Frank Wren.
Lazertown you nailed it……except that 10 million aav. That was WAY to much in retrospect.
If I were Braves GM I would make 2 big trades first:
1. Evan Gattis and Jordan Walden to the Astros for Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro, Brad Peacock and Josh Fields.
2. Chris Johnson, BJ Upton, Anthony Varvaro and Justin Upton +20 million to the Mariners for Kyle Seager and Taijuan Walker.
I follow that up with extending Jason Heyward to 4 years x 60 million, and I also sign Michael Cuddyer from free agency for 2 years 22 million.
I would offer Santana arb, if he accepts I trade him for prospects
Both trades are instant hang-ups, getting rid of BJ and CJ will have to involve swapping of bad contracts. There’s no chance Heyward signs for 15M/yr, 18-20M over 6 years is probably the minimum and he likely would get more on the open market.
Mariners tried to get Justin Upton before, I think having him and Robinson Cano would be very attractive, at the end of the year if they are unable to sign him long-term they can get back draft pick compensation. They also lack right handed power up and down the lineup, that’s why I thought Chris Johnson gives them some value.
And well BJ Upton may be pushing it a little but I am giving them 20 million to pay for his bad contract.
Regarding Heyward, I love the player, defensively he is amazing, but his bat hasn’t developed. Coming off a down year from what I expect he should be, could be a good opportunity to get him at a lower cost. That’s why I thought 15 million made sense.
Seager is a better player than Upton though because of the position he plays, and his close bat. And they control him for 3 more years, compared to 1 for Upton.
Kyle Seagar is more valuable than Justin Upton and Tijuan Walker is better than the rest of the package including the 20 million. The other trade makes not much sense for the Astros as Walden is an ok bullpen piece and Gattis is no better than Castro going forward overall. Also, Heyward is not signing for 4 and 60.
So to sum up trade Evan Gattis, Jordan Walden, Chris Johnson, BJ Upton, Anthony Varvaro and Justin Upton + 20 million for Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro, Brad Peacock, Josh Fields, Kyle Seager and Taijuan Walker.
Money wise they would trade 38.7 million – (20.0 million) = 18.7 million – Dexter Fowler 9 million – Jason Castro 3.9 million – Kyle Seager 4.0 million = 1.8 million freed up for 2015, but more money saved down the road and a much more competitive team IMO.
That’s all fine a good but both teams have to agree to the trades, and there’s little chance that happens.
Yeah that’s true. I think it’s very difficult to find a trade partner for Justin Upton. The Yankees, Orioles and Mariners are the only one’s that came to mind.
I think there are plenty of teams that would take JUp. Pretty much any team that sees themselves as possible contenders next year, and with the addition of the second wildcard team that’s like 80% of all teams in baseball.
I’d go so far as to say 28 or 29 teams in the game would prefer JUpton to at least one of their corner OF.
J. Upton would be easy to move. Where it gets complicated is when you try bundling him with bad contracts like BJ and Johnson. All this does is reduce the overall value of the Braves’ return.
And why are other teams giving their prospects up to take on bad contracts?
That Medlen arbitration number is pretty steep for a guy coming off a 2nd TJ. I think a 1 year deal at 3M with an option for 7-10M (if he reaches certain benchmarks) could make sense.
He made $5.8MM this year, and nobody has ever had their salary decreased, that number is pretty reasonable. Can’t see why he would take that deal, he would be taking half the guaranteed money, and he is a free agent at end of year anyways.
Arbitration salaries can be decreased but only to like 20% of what they made the previous year. That being said, I doubt the Braves even give Meds that. I’m sure they would love to have him back, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be ready even mid-season. They thought the same about Venters this past year and look what happened. Only way I see Medlen in a Braves uniform come Spring is a non-tender and resign with maybe an option attached, but as you said he’ll be a free agent in a year so why would he even agree to that.
And if he gets non-tendered then he is a free agent. So there no reason he needs to take that deal.
Id bet good money he doesnt make 5.8 million dollars this year.
The Braves aren’t going through arbitration with Medlen. He either signs at a lower price and uses 2015 to show he’s healthy, or he gets non-tendered. I bet would take it to stay with the Braves, avoid being non-tendered and have a guaranteed contract for 2015. It’s a show-me contract like other pitchers coming off major injuries have gotten.
He may not even pitch in 2015, so he may want to take a deal with the Braves if he’s comfortable with how they’ve handled his rehabilitation process.
It’s important to note that salaries may only decrease by 20% as a result of an arbitration hearing, but a player may sign any contract to avoid arbitration. It could be a 500% decrease as long as he’s willing to sign the contract.
I think it would be prudent (assuming he wants to stay with the Braves) to work a deal similar to what CT mentioned. One-year with a very low salary and then an option year. I’d make a team, player, and mutual option. Say the team option is set at $7M for 2016, while the mutual option is set at $5M and the player option is $3M.
If he’s terrible or hurt all season, he takes the $3M player option and is glad he has a job paying great money. If he’s good to fantastic upon his return, the Braves get a deal at $7M. If he’s somewhere in between, there’s the mutual option. Works out for everyone.
-C
I’m pretty sure that Medlen will be non-tendered. There is no way the Braves play 5M+ for a pitcher that may never pitch at a high level again. Or, as you said, they may offer him a low cost deal with incentives.
Braves send Gattis to Tampa Bay for Hellickson and one of our middle infielders, Rodriguez, Forsythe, Beckham, Figueroa, or Lee. Or if you’d prefer an OF, they could send either Jennings, Joyce, or DeJesus.
Don’t see the Braves having any interest in Hellickson at all…he’s kind of terrible. They are also stocked full of middle infield types. Gattis for a couple of really good prospects would be better.
I would offer Tampa Elmer Reyes, Gattis Justin Upton and Minor for Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria. Then send Chris Johnson Kyle Wren BJ and Hale to the Cubs for Soler and Edwin Jackson. Then I would resign Bonofacio Harang and Santana move Beachy Medlen to Gwinnett for pitching depth and I’d sign Heyward to a 6 yr 99 million extension
Why would Tampa Bay want to take on additinal salary? Also you want to send two bad contracts while only taking one back and still expect them Cubs to give up Soler for Wren and Hale? This is wishful thinking even in fantasy baseball.
Not sure why either the Rays or the Cubs would make that trade at all. Longoria and Soler are cost-controlled guys with MVP ceilings.
Bj Upton for the last two years of Albert Pujols’ contract seems fair and fare more plausible than any of these other scenarios.
They can take Arod.
I would offer Gattis and BJ to Seattle for a low end prospect. Then, use the savings in salary to attempt to extend both Justin and Heyward.
The return on Gattis will be huge. One of the premiere power hitters in baseball and he’s cost controlled through his prime. Not another player in baseball that carries his potential value for cost. His defense behind the plate is overblown, he’s at least average, has a good arm and has a desire to improve. 29 teams will be interested if he’s dangled.
Depends on your definition of “huge”. Because if you look to a comparison, he’s Trumbo with an extra year. Trumbo got 2 mid-back rotation starters last winter (Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs). Also, his defense isn’t overblown. He had -4 DRS behind the plate last year and only caught 20% of potential base stealers. Those aren’t good numbers (no matter how much his “desire to improve” is). If you’re expecting back multiple top 100 prospects or 2-3 average MLB players, you’ll probably be disappointed.
Most questioned the return the Angels got for Trumbo. But since he’s not a catcher, and not going through the prime of his career on a cost controlled contract, they aren’t similar enough for comparison. And the DRS statistic is only applicable if you understand it’s limitations and have watched/scouted enough to make a proper evaluation. If Atlanta isn’t getting quality prospects or big leaguers, they aren’t trading Gattis, simple as that. So the return will either be huge, or nothing at all.
Actually, most loved the return the Angels got for Trumbo (most questioned what the Diamondbacks gave up to get him). And Trumbo isn’t in the prime of his career on a controlled contract? (Gattis has 1 year of pre-arb before going to arbitration – Trumbo was traded going into his first year of arbitration). Gattis isn’t a good catcher – the same way Trumbo isn’t a good OFer. They both belong in the DH spot. DRS has limitations, but that doesn’t make it’s findings less valid. It just supports the idea that Gattis isn’t a good catcher and will probably need to be moved off the position – or be a detriment – before his arbitration years end.
He isn’t a very good defensive catcher at all. According to reports/tweets from local beat writers Ervin Santana and Mike Minor both said that they didn’t like throwing to him. Teheran and Gattis got into that staring match in the middle of a game.
I think only AL teams will be interested in him because he is a DH/back-up catcher. That being said, I do think he should bring back at least one top 100 prospect plus a bench player and relief prospect. If he goes to the AL and is used as a DH he could hit 30+ home runs next year and will make league minimum.
He could likely play 1B well enough to carry his bat, too. I know I’d much rather have Gattis than Cuddyer even though he’d be far more expensive, prospects-wise.
“Not another player in baseball that carries his potential value for cost”. Jonathan Lucroy offers similar value due to his team friendly extension ($14.25M over the next 3 seasons) while providing 6.7 WAR in 2014 versus 2.2 WAR for Gattis. Lucroy also is considered elite when it comes to framing pitches and provides above average defense something Gattis does not.
Lucroy is definitely a great player. I should have added the caveat that Gattis is potentially available. Certainly if guys like Kershaw, Trout, or some other elite young player became available, they would carry more value. As for Gattis, if you are a rival talent evaluator looking to upgrade your team with players available on the market, Gattis is the one who would have potential to be a ‘game changing’ acquisition because of his cost & control related to potential.
Technically you were still right, Gattis isnt even arbitration eligible next year. Comparing 500k to 5 million gives Gattis the clear edge.
Another course of action for ATL would be this:
Trade Evan Gattis to the Astros or Rays, for prospects. Keep Justin Upton.
Trade BJ + cash to the Cubs for Edwin Jackson.
Sign Aoki from free agency.
Sign Aaron Harang
Call up Kyle Kubitza and Jose Peraza
Sign a backup catcher.
Call up Todd Cunningham.
At the same time, though, Gattis is one of the few guys in that lineup, along with Freeman and JUpton, you know is definitely going to produce offensively. Who do you get to replace his offense?
why would the Cubs want a player who’d be useless every day instead of every 5th day for 1 more year than Ejax with a reputation as a problem child to boot? We’re all full up in the outfield as it is.
Unless the Braves are throwing in enough cash to make Upton cheaper than Jackson or a prospect to make it worth the Cubs while to waste a roster space in the short term it’s a pointless deal for the Cubs… and given the price to make it happen, a pointless deal for the Braves as well.
The Upton brothers follow the Young brothers (Dimitri and Delbert) in having a world of talent, being fawned over and making a lot of money. And for a year or two every now and then, they produce some. Some GM’s think that’s the start of something big – but it never is.
Every now and then I see a comment like this and I just shake my head. Justin is about ten times more valuable than his brother. They are NOTHING alike. They don’t even look alike. They only thing they share is the same last name.
I see….
You think Justin is a middle of the order productive player that anchors a teams offense? The DBacks waited for years for him to do it. The Braves got something, but not at all what they expected for the cost. I’d guess that the Justin trade had quite a bit to do with the GM losing his job.
Justin IS a middle of the order hitter. 29 home runs, 102 RBI, 133 wRC+, 3.9 WAR. Most any team in baseball would LOVE to have him. That trade was a STEAL for the Braves and is one of the reasons Towers is no longer a GM. On the other hand, BJ has negative value,
Maybe Towers wasn’t paying attention in 2011 when he was 4th in MVP voting ahead of players like Pujols, Votto and Tulowitzki. He is definitely considered a middle of the order bat by all 30 teams.
There’s probably about 28 or 29 teams in baseball who’d take Upton over what they’ve got – the Marlins might not.
With bullpens being the new vogue and thus overvalued, Braves should trade bullpen pieces at premium prices. They could dangle Heyward for someone like Quintana. some smart moves could turn this team into a contender quickly, although they lack depth.