In today’s Insider-only blog post (subscription required), ESPN’s Buster Olney discusses the looming free agency of Russell Martin, calling him the “Lamborghini of the catching market” and noting that he is positioned better than perhaps any free agent this offseason. Olney spoke with a number of executives from around the league, with some believing the tipping point for Martin could be whether a team is willing to increase its offer from three years to four, and others believing the tipping point will be whether or not any team offers a fifth guaranteed year. I’m on board with the latter of the two opinions, personally, as I do feel Martin has an exceptionally strong case for a four-year deal. As Olney notes, even if Martin is physically unable to catch a full workload of games by the end of his contract, he’s an exceptional athlete with MLB experience at other positions, so he could be moved around to provide further value as his heavy career workload begins to take its toll.
A few other NL Central items for your afternoon…
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the way in which we the aging curve for players needs to be reevaluated, as many of those models were developed during the PED era, which inflated production into players’ mid-30s. Sawchik provides a graph showing WAR for catchers in their 30s based on three eras: 1980-89, 1990-2004 and 2005-14, in an attempt to isolate the steroid era data. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron looked at Sawchik’s excellent work and noted that catcher production from ages 32 to 35 in the post-steroid era has remained relatively consistent from a WAR standpoint, adding that framing skills are largely undeterred by age (as noted by Max Marchi of Baseball Prospectus in this 2013 piece).
- Jake Peavy told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago-Sun Times, that he will be interested to see where his close friend Jon Lester signs this offseason. Peavy had no qualms in stating that he’d like to once again be teammates with his friend: “I’ve certainly talked to Jon Lester because we’re buddies,” said Peavy. “So I have a feel for what he does. And I certainly know that Chicago would interest him and interest me.” Peavy clarified that he’s not suggesting a package deal for the Cubs, but rather, “There’s a package deal out there for any team.” Wittenmyer spoke to a few people close to Peavy who believe the Cubs would be high on his offseason wishlist, however, having spent several years there with the White Sox.
- In a second piece from Wittenmyer, he writes that sources have told him that James Shields would be the chief fallback option for the Cubs if they don’t land Lester. As Wittenmyer points out, the case for Shields to come to Chicago could be greater if the Cubs land former Rays skipper Joe Maddon. Shields tells Wittenmyer that he enjoyed playing for Maddon very much, though he adds that he hasn’t had any time yet to think about free agency.
fred 15
I believe that the Seattle Mariners will be relocated to Alabama.
bobbleheadguru
Agree. And I also believe Nick Saban will be relocated to Ann Arbor.
Seamaholic
Hope Lester isn’t on board with this “package deal” thing, because Peavy’s getting old and there aren’t that many teams that would be interested in both of them. He (Lester) would be better off going it alone and then seeing what happens after that.
petrie000
i don’t know if that would be such a horrible deal for the Cubs, actually. Arietta’s probably a no. 2, Hendricks will probably settle in as a no. 4, the Cubs best pitching prospects won’t be ready for a year or 2… If they can get Peavy at a reasonable price for a no. 3… that’s not a bad rotation.
Seamaholic
Cubs have a pitching prospect?
petrie000
would your head literally explode if i told you they had one in the AFL all-star game this year?
CJ Edwards… you may have heard him mentioned once or twice…
Yohan
I’m not saying they don’t have pitching prospects(they do and CJ is one), but using the AAFLAll Star Game is not helping your argument. There are so many players who are in minor league AS Games that never put on a MLB uniform.
petrie000
and why exactly does it not help my argument? Your exact statement could apply to the Futures game as well, yet pretty much everyone who plays there is considered a ‘top prospect’ at the time.
There’s always the risk of a bust-out with a prospects, that’s not the issue. The question at hand is how you define who is and who isn’t a legitimate one.
Cosmo3
Very funny. Actually they have some good ones that would get more publicity if they weren’t overshadowed by the Cubs’ glut of top-shelf position prospects.
DippityDoo
Bunch of guys at Kane County (low A) who have floors of mlb relievers. A lot of good stuff at the bottom of the system pitching wise.
Hazmak
I would like to see Jake Arietta a little more before the title of No.2 is being thrown around.
Jake 21
Fangraphs had a great write up on his break-out season. I recommend checking it out. fangraphs.com/blogs/building-jake-arrieta/
Scott Berlin
He can be the Cubs number 2, doesnt mean he would be on any other team.
petrie000
another year like he had this year and he’s a no. 1 on a lot of teams. He’d be the projected no. 2 on either team in the WS next year right now.
That’s not me being a Cubs fan, that’s just how good he was this year.
gemmatmorrow
So does that mean that Peavy doesn’t have much interest in re-signing with the Giants? Or that he would try and get the Giants to sign Lester?
Wooltron
There is no way the Giants go after Lester.
bobbleheadguru
Lets play musical chairs with the Top FA Pitchers.
Tigers? No, they are riding out Price and will fill their #5 spot with young players (Ray or Lobstein).
Yankees? No, they are trying to get out from dozens of bloated contract with players in their 30-40s. Younger position players like Panda are a better fit for a mega contract.
Red Sox? No, they are allergic to multi year contracts to pitchers in their 30s.
Dodgers? No, they have Friedman now, who brings some level of cost sanity.
Who is left?
stl_cards16
I believe we do this every year, but the top guys always get their big pay days. There is more money in baseball than ever before, there will be suitors.
The Cardinals just announced they can take on at least $20MM in payroll for the next few seasons. Will they go after an Ace? Probably not. But there are many teams that can take their payroll to levels they’ve never been at.
bobbleheadguru
Scherzer to Cardinals makes some sense… except the Cardinals do not do overpay contracts.
baseball lifer
Rangers… Darvish, Holland, and more 3 spots to fill.
Mikel Grady
Leaves the Cubs. I have no problem with peavy coming to Cubs. Lester shields sherzer peavy arietta and Hendricks .
oh Hal
Chicago radio talk is that Maddon to the Cubs is pretty much done and they’re waiting till after the World Series.
petrie000
they said the same thing last year about Greg Maddux.
oh Hal
Yeah, I hear you.
Jake 21
The radio talk shows are just parroting what Buster Olney said yesterday in his podcast. He stated the deal was all but done. Add that to the Cubs’ front office silence on the topic and Rick Renteria’s oddly timed statement yesterday, I’d have to say that Maddon will be announced as the Cubs’ 2015 manager as soon as Friday.
MarinersRoyalsBraves2014
Royals will let Shields and Butler go elsewhere and make a run at Scherzer.
bobbleheadguru
He would be a fit as he can only go about 6 innings/start consistently.
MarinersRoyalsBraves2014
That should limit his suitors then? Royals should talk to him as soon as the World Series is completed. Max attended Mizzou and I’ve been thinking about him on the Royals, all season.
stl_cards16
Only 8th in baseball in IP. I’m sure teams are going to be scared of that 6 2/3 IP per start.
Jesse Rodriguez
For some reason i think oakland could sign Lester
petrie000
they could… but they won’t. There’s another rebuild looming in the very near future for the A’s, given how depleted the farm system is. The A’s aren’t going to pay him 25 million a year to be a great pitcher on a bad team.. and Lester’s not going to take it just to be trade bait in 2 seasons.
Scott Berlin
If the Cubs sign Shields it should only be if they think their window for competing is in the next season or so else why waste the money. Shields may not be that great toward the back end of any deal he signs unless it’s a 4 or maybe 5 year deal but even 5 might be too much.
Mikenmn
Martin is such a fascinating case. Looked great with the Dodgers, then his performance dropped off to the point where the Yankees signed him as a Free Agent for less than he had been paid by the Dodgers. 4.4 WAR in two years with the Yankees; decent bat, good behind the plate, and then he takes off in Pittsburgh. Had 9.4 WAR in his age 24/25 years, and then 9.8 WAR in his age 30/31 years. The other five years, between 1.7 and 2.1 WAR
UK Tiger
May i be the one to suggest theres a link between hitting well in the NL, struggling in the AL, then hitting well again in the NL there to be made?
Flash Gordon
He got a lot of value out of his offense and OBP in particular. I don’t see that continuing but his defense is excellent. Plus his pitch framing provides value that WAR doesn’t even measure. He’s in line for a decent pay day.
DippityDoo
A torn labrum in the hip when you’re a catcher is a huge. And it took a while to comeback from that injury, very similar to when a pitcher has a torn labrum in the shoulder, takes a long time to get back to normal, nothing like a ligament injury. Had he not had that injury I doubt his production would have been what it was during his late 20s.
JDo
Jokes on everyone, Peavy was talking about the White Sox
I Want My Bird
Peavy’s remaining MLB future is limited to the Giants. They’re the only ones who’ll give him a multi-year contract and watch him go 3 innings in 2015, 2 in 2016, and 1 in 2017. Along the way, plenty of ‘Good ‘ol Times’ gala fundraising dinners with Lincecum. It’s a minor miracle to me if the Giants win the Series with him and Vogelsong. Funny Dodgers, trying to have a rotation full of star power! 🙁
Chad N
Peavy has a 15m play option, wth wouldn’t he take it? No way he gets that much from anyone else… I think he will be back in SF
Steve Wollkind
According to Cot’s Contracts, that option only vested if he had 400 IP in the last 2 years and 190 IP this year. He met the goal for this year but he’s 60 innings short for the two years combined. No option. He’s FA after the series.
Chad N
thanks @Hetty_Green:disqus just looked it up, you’re correct. I was told he met the requirements, clearly I was misinformed.
slider32
The Cubs are going to be loading up on pitching in the next 2 years, I can see them signing Lester, Peavy, and Shields next year. They will also have Joe Maddon to manage the team. I could also see them trading for a young picher with one of their SS or a package of a SS and outfielder.
Jeff Hill
They won’t sign all three. I think Shields is coming to Boston because the Sox aren’t resigning Lester, who I believe is going to the Cubs. And they have a huge need for front end SP
Ron Sochacki
Cubs most likely signing Lester and making a big offer for Cole Hamels. Peavy could be in mix but if Theo is serious about competing in 2015, Lester and Hamels are key. As well as signing Martin and Gomes. Shouldn’t be too hard considering everyone wants to be a Cub these days.