Though he’s spent much of his career in the shadow of perhaps the greatest closer of all time, Mariano Rivera, Yankees right-hander David Robertson stepped onto the ninth-inning stage this season and excelled. The strong effort continued a four-year run of dominance that has positioned the former 17th-round pick quite well as he hits free agency for the first time.
Strengths/Pros
In today’s game, strikeouts are king for pitchers, and Robertson excels in that department. Though he’s not overpowering — he’s averaged 92 mph on his heater in his career — Robertson racks up strikeouts at a prolific rate in part because he releases the ball closer to home plate than most pitchers, causing his fastball to appear quicker (a trait which SI.com’s Tom Verducci examined in a 2011 article). He averaged 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season and has punched out 12.0 per nine in his carer, including 12.3 per nine over the past four seasons.
Those four seasons are where Robertson truly began to establish himself as one of the game’s elite relievers. From 2011-14, Robertson owns a 2.20 ERA with a 354-to-95 K/BB ratio in 258 innings of work. His 46.7 percent ground-ball rate in that time has been slightly above-average, and he’s shaken the command problems that he showed early in his career. He walked nearly five batters per nine innings from 2008-11, but since that time he’s averaged just 2.8 BB/9.
A look at the rest of the closer market reveals quite a few older options, but Robertson will turn 30 next April, giving a signing team control of some prime-aged seasons. The next-youngest competition is Sergio Romo (32), who is coming off a down season in which he lost his hold on the ninth inning. In fact, a large number of Robertson’s competitors on the open market lost their jobs this year, but he can point to the fact that his grip remained iron-clad on the ninth inning this season.
Robertson has thrived in a big-market setting and in a hitter-friendly ballpark/division, so there’s little reason to worry about inserting him into any setting. While his time spent behind Rivera could be seen by some as a means of pointing out his lack of experience as a true closer, the argument can also be made that there’s no one better to have served as a tutor/mentor for Robertson throughout the first six seasons of his career.
Weaknesses/Cons
Were Robertson on a different team, a qualifying offer of $15MM+ might not even be a consideration. Few clubs are comfortable paying relievers so extravagantly in this market, but the Yankees can certainly afford to. ESPN’s Buster Olney has written (subscription required) that it’s a virtual lock for Robertson to receive a QO, and as such, a signing team will have to forfeit its top unprotected pick in order to secure Robertson’s services. It’s nearly certain that no other reliever will come with this distinction.
Some may be surprised to learn that Robertson comes with somewhat of a platoon split — particularly because that split is of the reverse variety. While Robertson has completely flummoxed left-handed batters throughout his career and particularly in the past four seasons (.173/.254/.236), right-handed hitters have batted .230/.305/.373 against him dating back to 2011. Granted, that’s still not a particularly impressive batting line, but it’s closer to league-average production than one might think based on his otherwise elite stats.
Robertson dealt with what appears to have been a mild groin injury earlier this season. He required a trip to the disabled list — just the second of his career — though he only required the minimum 15-day stay and appeared healthy following that episode.
Personal
Laid back and reserved in nature, Robertson enjoys hunting and fishing in his free time. He also takes a great amount of pride in doing charity work for the community — a trait that is evident in looking at his High Socks for Hope charity. Robertson, an Alabama native, founded the nonprofit organization with his wife, Erin, after tornadoes ravaged his hometown Tuscaloosa area back in 2011. The charity seeks to benefit those whose lives have been impacted by tornadoes, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Since founding the charity, Robertson has pledged to donate $100 for each strikeout he records, and he also pledged $200 for every save that he recorded in 2014. He’s been recognized with awards from Habitat for Humanity and has also been nominated for the Branch Rickey Award for community service in each of the past four seasons.
Market
We’ve seen in the past that it typically behooves relievers to sign early in the offseason rather than to wait for the market to develop. The best hope for Robertson is for a team to make an aggressive push early in the offseason after deciding that he’s “their guy” and making a strong offer. This method worked for Joe Nathan and Joaquin Benoit with the Tigers, and we saw Jonathan Papelbon take a similar route when he signed in Philadelphia. On rare occasion, relievers that wait (i.e. Rafael Soriano) have been paid handsomely, but typically the market is strongest early on.
Not many teams are forking over major dollars to relief pitchers these days, but some clubs might be willing to make an exception for a pitcher that has been worth 8 fWAR and 9.3 rWAR dating back to 2011. The Yankees, who will likely make a QO, will of course be involved. However, they have a ready-made replacement candidate in the form of Dellin Betances and do have other areas that need attention.
The Dodgers can never be ruled out on big-name free agents, although Kenley Jansen is currently entrenched as their ninth-inning man. The Tigers yet again endured bullpen struggles, but after watching their big-money investment in Joe Nathan go south, would they decide that the best solution is to throw even more money at the ninth inning? The White Sox don’t have a firm solution in the ninth, and they’re set at a number of positions with affordable contracts, but GM Rick Hahn recently downplayed the idea of spending heavily on the ninth inning. The Angels figure to be set with Huston Street and a repeatedly stated desire to stay under baseball’s luxury tax threshold. The Rangers have deep pockets and a weakened bullpen as well. Another logical landing spot could be the Nationals, who are set at many positions around the diamond and already have a strong rotation.
Expected Contract
Robertson has been nothing short of dominant, and in spite of the QO that’s likely to be attached to his name, I imagine that the goal for his camp will be to top Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM guarantee.
Given the fact that Robertson is the best player at his position in a free agent market that is thin on bats and features a number of talented but risky starters, a team may view Robertson as more of a sure thing than the rest of the market. A club looking to spend to improve but unwilling to take on the risk of an injury-prone starter or overpay for one of the few reliable bats may instead prefer to allocate its funds to shortening the game via a dynamic bullpen addition. It’s that line of thinking that leads me to believe it is indeed possible for Robertson to top Papelbon’s deal.
Aiming to set a new precedent is bold, but if there’s been a free agent reliever in recent history who can stake a legitimate claim to being able to do so, it’s Robertson. Based on his combination of age, strikeouts, command, ground-balls and success in a major market and hitter-friendly division, I’m predicting a four-year, $52MM contract for Robertson when all is said and done.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I feel like I’d like this guy if he were wearing a different hat. But I don’t want the Sox to spend that much (+maybe a draft pick, even a second-round one) on a closer.
I’m just going to disagree on the contract. I think the days of paying closers Papelbon money are gone.
I say he gets a 3 year/$30+ mil deal somewhere.
That… sounds reasonable.
He could take 1/15 with a QO… that contract basically gives away his next two FA years at the same rate a 37-year-old Fernando Rodney took. I don’t think that sounds reasonable from Robertson’s perspective.
If he doesn’t accept the QO, very few teams would surrender the pick to sign him nor could afford him at 15~ MM. 10 MM AAV seems very reasonable for a 2-win reliever. Relief wins are the easiest ones to come by..
“Relief wins are the easiest ones to come by”
You as a Mets fan should know that’s not true.
Jenrry Mejia, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia, Josh Edgin, Bobby Parnell. Either came up through the farm or were acquired in a savvy trade. As a Mets fan, I can see free agency isn’t the way to build a bullpen better than anyone. Frank Francisco, Francisco Rodriguez are two of the worst free agent signings we’ve made in recent memory, and “veterans” like Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, Jon Rauch and others have been poor. Blowing a wallet on the bullpen doesn’t work. The Dodgers have found this out the hard way.
But how many of them lasted more than 1 season as a full time closer?
How fickle are relievers in general? Blowing such a large portion of your budget on the most volatile asset is not smart baseball. Time in and time out the best bullpens belong to teams with the strongest farm systems.
“Time in and time out the best bullpens belong to teams with the strongest farm systems.”
I’m not sure where you get an idea like that. For instance, the Yankees relievers are 4th in WAR the past 5 years. The Mets are 29th.
Cardinals are a great example of this. Also your Mets example proves my point, they were a weak farm system, until a few years ago, but all of a sudden this year were a good relieving team at around the mid year point to the end, strong farms take years to show results at the major league level. The Yankees can be called an exception, due to a reliever not presenting itself as that major a percent of their salary commitments, and they still had a lot of strong arms in their farm that flamed out as starters with them, but contributed strongly to the bullpen.
Rodriguez lasted 2+ out of his 3-year deal and Francisco lasted a year out of two. But closing doesn’t make them more valuable. Many of them were closers when they signed and cratered. Relievers are volatile.
I wouldn’t say it makes them more valuable but you’ll want your best ones pitching at the most crucial time of the game. Ask any manager and they’ll tell you the hardest outs to get in the game are the final 3.
By the way, I’m not saying the Mets should go after Robertson and I don’t think relievers should be paid that much money, but I disagree with you when you say relief wins are easy (for the record, the Mets reliever WAR this year was -2, yes Negative 2)
As a Yankees fan I think you have had no issue with homegrown closers over the last decade
Bullpens are just kind of hit or miss. Valverde and Farnsworth were minor league contracts. They pretty much performed as expected. Rauch and Frank were just awful signings. I remember there were a few guys that year (Mike Gonzalez comes to mind) who signed for cheaper and had me scratching my head.
K-Rod was a nightmare to watch but theres no denying he was good at his job (maybe lucky, but he’s been doing it for a while so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt). I was actually mad they didn’t sign him this year. Milwaukee got him for peanuts.
I just don’t think SA is good at making bullpen signings. For the cost of Frank and Rauch a few years ago the Mets good have gotten K-Rod and Joe Smith this year. I know comparing years is like comparing apples to oranges, but it goes to show that SA really hasn’t been savvy with his bullpen money
Correct. If you are of the belief that Robertson will get a QO. I don’t think he will.
$52 MM is reasonable. Either way, I think Robertson (and his agent) smiled when they read this article
If the author of this article is right or close to right about Robertson’s potential contract it will be for a team other than the Yankees. With Betances’s performance this past season and the other Yankees needs I can’t see them allocating roughly $13MM AAV to a closer.
On a multi-year deal, yes, but Robertson is widely expected to receive the 15 MM QO, which would, yknow, be a willingness to offer a 1-year deal with a 15 MM AAV.
That’s what has been speculated. I’m not sure that the Yankees will make him a QO but it is a possibility. Then the question is does Robertson accept the QO or reject it?
Robertson did in fact say he would have liked to talk to the Yankees about an extension. Assuming that he wants to remain with the Yankees, if they offer him a QO, I think he’d accept it.
He also said that he would have been willing to give the Yankees a hometown discount prior to the 2014 season started. But since they never approached him about an early extension he intended to see what his value was on the open market. Players say a lot of things but in the end more often than not it comes down to dollars and who offers the most.
“He also said that he would have been willing to give the Yankees a hometown discount prior to the 2014 season started.”
Ahh maybe that’s what I meant to say (instead of saying he would talk about an extension, though theoretically it’s the same thing)
I also see the 4/52 offer as being a bit much for anyone to sign given the current market for closers especially given the QO. The Yankees could be hoping he excepts a the QO and works out a deal in the 3/33 range.
I don’t see Betances being ready to be the closer.
Why. He pitched lights out this year has a blazing fastball and had a K rate of 13.5 per 9 innings. His ERA+ is 277 which is fantastic.
Maybe, what I really mean is that I’m not ready to see him move 😉
I know the numbers and I know his stuff is great.No doubt, if he pitches like he did this season he can do it. But, he does only have one year of service and that’s not enough for me to be convinced he can be effective long term. At least not effective enough to let Robertson go. Before this season he had a lot of control issues, and he has said that he has to pitch every day or his delivery becomes inconsistent. A closer doesn’t pitch as regularly as a setup guy.
I can’t see him topping 50 MM on four years. Kimbrel just got 42 MM guaranteed, and Papelbon is the only closer aside from Kimbrel to receive a guarantee above 20 MM in the past few years, best I can remember. The days of paying closers that kind of money are over, IMO. I really cannot see a bigger guarantee than 35 MM for him.
No other team would come close to offering to what Papelbon got, and while Robertson is probably a top 5 reliever the past 3-4 years, I don’t see any way he tops Kimbrel’s offer unless he gets a 4 or 5 year deal, which is a huge risk of course too.
Tigers are desperate for relievers. Especially how their current relievers performed in the post season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they overpaid.
Well I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s an overpay but I can’t picture it being as bad as Papelbon’s
Kimbrel got $42MM guaranteed for arbitration seasons plus a free agent year, not four free agent seasons, however. We can’t say the days of paying this type of money to a closer are over, when no closer with a Papelbon-like track record has hit the open market since Papelbon. Robertson has that. This is the type of money that Edwin Jackson, Ricky Nolasco and Ubaldo Jimenez signed for. Is it so outlandish for teams to value an elite closer over a mid-rotation starter? Obviously, I don’t think so, but you’re of course entitled to disagree.
All four of those contracts have ended up as disasters, though. Those guys have not ended up being mid-rotation starters, but rather albatrosses, and serve as cautionary tales, not good precedents. Rafael Soriano had a QO and a good track record coming off of ’12 and yet he couldn’t get to 30 MM, and Joe Nathan didn’t either. Some even saw Kimbrel’s extension as a mediocre deal. Relief wins are the easiest to find, and avoiding the FA market is probably wisest. League, Nathan, Mujica, Balfour, Jim Johnson, etc. have gotten decent guarantees then craters. I think Robertson is not much better than Doolittle or Glen Perkins, and they signed for 10 MM (though not as a closer) and 22 MM on extensions. He’s in that class. He’s not Kimbrel, and he doesn’t have Papelbon’s track record.
You can’t cite a Doolittle extension that includes his arb years or a Perkins extension that he admitted was a hometown discount (and also included an arb year) to set a precedent for Robertson’s free agent years, though.
His four-year platform heading into free agency is better than Papelbon’s was, and statistically, he has better control and a similar strikeout rate to Kimbrel.
Papellbon had been a closer for I believe three years. Yankees will pay him 4/48. It is a lot of money especially when you have Betances But they have so many problems they have to make sure they do not create another one.
Papelbon had been a closer for 6 years at the time of his signing (2006-20011 with Red Sox) and was about 1.5 years older than Robertson will be this winter. Approving had much better BB rates but slightly worse K rates as well.
17th round pick, saw him Pitch years ago in Minors. He was lights out then. Yankees at one time were one of the best Organizations, drafting, especially Pitching. Hope that Scout got a nice raise.
I’m a Sox fan.
“Yankees at one time were one of the best Organizations, drafting, especially Pitching”
Relief pitching quite possibly. Starting pitching, not really.
Hughes has been pretty good this year.
Yeah, with Minnesota, not NY. Only time he was good in NY was 09 as Mo’s setup man.
Just trying to help 😛
Still some decent starting arms coming out of the farm system lately. David Phelps, Ivan Nova, Shane Greene have all come up recently. Shane Greene was nasty, I’m hoping his success wasn’t due to just being new and he’s actually that good.
Who’s going to give him that though, especially with compensation attached?
Maybe the Tigers? Based on what I saw of their bullpen this ALDS they could use all the help they can get.
I also wouldn’t rule out the Dodgers. Outside of Jansen, their bullpen isn’t very good either (though certainly better than Detroit’s)
I could see the Dodgers going after Andrew Miller before they go after Robertson.
Nats make a lot of sense to me. Rotation is set with Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gio-Fister-Roark, they’re set in the OF, set behind the plate. If they want to upgrade their best bet is a 2B or 3B, or otherwise beefing up the bullpen.
Nats need to remove salary – I don’t see them replacing Soriano with another big contract, esp as they have some great young arms coming up (incl Barrett and Treinan). Big extensions coming for a lot of guys…
All depends on how high Illitch’s panic level is. Keep in mind that Papelbon will also be available at a lesser price and the NTC wouldn’t likely be a problem for the teams interested in Roberston.
Somebody will especially whats going on in the Play-offs.
I think Robertson or K-Rod is one of Dave Dombrowski’s top targets
Isn’t that amazing? The bullpen has become so key in winning, that you can’t even cover it up with good starting pitching and a good offense. The Tigers lost that series strictly because of the bullpen. Well…mostly Joba whose ERA this postseason was 108.00.
Just wait until you see him load the bases, and then strike the next 3 batters out.
Yep, just posted that below. Though that happened more so when he was pitching in the 7th and/or 8th.
Figure the Tigers will give QO’s to V-mart, and Scherzer, so they will have picks for those guys at least.
The one thing I didn’t like about Robertson is that he seemed to always struggle having a 1-2-3 inning, particularly in save situations.
Last year in the 38 games he saved where he pitched at least 1 inning, only 10 of them were saves in which he did not allow a base runner (at least not via Hit or BB).
We nicknamed him Houdini for a reason, though it was more so when he was a middle reliever when he was allowing 2+ base runners an inning and striking out 2+.
I just want to see someone accept a QO, the old problem with the Type A free agents was the top relievers that really some were mediocre relievers were being forced to go to Arbitration for an absurdly low one year contract for a type A free agent, the new QO system was supposed to fix that problem by guaranteeing them at least an AAV higher than they would get on the open market in exchange for being attached to draft pick compensation. I get that all baseball players want the security of a multi-year deal, but 15 mil for one year is not bad at all.
But relievers fall off all the time. They are often best getting as much guaranteed money, not the highest aav.
he might be at the top of the pile but theres one glaring weakness that sets mariano apart from david. david throws way too many pitches and makes the nineth inning drag on whereas mariano attacked and you knew right away that he was on or off…with david it seems like hes always off.
His strike % was 63% last year and it’s his career strike% too. Seems a bit low for a closer.
That set Mo apart from everybody though. That’s why he’s headed straight for the HOF.
He’s 29 so still youngish and like we’ve seen with many pitchers I’m sure his numbers would get even better outside of Yankee Stadium. His career ERA on the road is 2.55 and 3.10 in the Bronx. I could see the Dodgers and Tigers and maybe a couple mystery interested. He’s not the character Papelbon is and DRob is a good clubhouse guy.
My opinion, but I don’t get overly concerned about age with relievers. They don’t throw as many innings or pitches as starters so logically they would last that much longer.
Again, my opinion. Don’t hold me to that.
They also fall off cliffs for no real reason all the time, I don’t think anyone fully understands relievers yet.
Another reason not to worry about a reliever’s age. At any moment, they could become worthless.
I think “closer” is in Betances’ future. The Yanks would not be heartbroken to see Robertson leave. That being said, if he wants to stay and offers a home town discount, they’d love to have him back. I don’t know how long he’d be the closer though. Betances might just beat him out of that spot, and it wouldn’t take much. Robertson’s a fine addition to the bullpen in any capacity.
I would almost let Robertson go and instead sign Andrew Miller. A Miller/Betances 8-9 inning combination would be lethal.
I can see multiple teams who are in playoff mode that would overpay to get DRob. Tigers and Dodgers come to mind.
I could see Boston as a dark horse on Robertson
If I’m the Yankees I’d much rather sign Miller to setup Betances than commit anything that crazy in terms of years and dollars to a 30 year old closer.
Overall I don’t see the Yankees doing much of any spending this year, I think it’s probably a pretty good bet they sign McCarthy back but I’d even be a little surprised to see them match the 3-5 year deal Headley is likely to get from some team. They spent a lot of money last year and didn’t look any better, being yet another year older they really aren’t going to be a contender in 2015 regardless of what kind of money they throw around. So in the end they’ll probably just go small 1-2 year deals and expect fans to simply pay to see the stripes.
2-3 years of mediocrity to flush out the bad juice out of the system is worth it. However I think ownership will succumb to trying to put out a team that will ‘compete’ but all that will do is prolong the pain IMO.
Another Cano situation in the making?
The one solid asset the Yankees had this year was their bullpen. They need to keep Robertson no matter what the cost. Does not do much good to have a ninth inning reliever if your seventh and eighth inning players are weak. Notice how tigers lost to orioles when their set up guys imploded late in the game. The only All Stars the Yanks have are Robertson and Belances (sorry about spelling) They need BOTH of them!