Aramis Ramirez had an up-and-down season for the Brewers, who must sort out his mutual option and weigh a potential qualifying offer. The 36-year-old can still be a force at the plate, and may be the best offensive third baseman available this winter.
Strengths/Pros
Ramirez has already had an illustrious 17-year-career. Among third basemen, he ranks ninth all-time in home runs, tenth all-time in doubles, and tenth in RBI. Though he’ll likely fall short of the Hall of Fame, Ramirez had a long run of being one of the top 5-10 third basemen in baseball since becoming a regular in 2001.
These days, his power may not be what it once was, but he still ranked 11th among all third basemen in isolated power, ahead of fellow free agent Pablo Sandoval. He’s always made excellent contact, resulting in a .285 career batting average that he matched in 2014. Overall, Ramirez still has a case as a top ten hitter at the hot corner, and he was basically Sandoval’s equal with the bat this year. Ramirez also made his third All-Star team, hitting .288/.336/.459 in the first half.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in August, Ramirez’s free agent competition at third base isn’t anything special (although it’s certainly no worse than the rest of the free agent hitting class, which is weak overall). If one continues to categorize Hanley Ramirez as a shortstop, Ramirez’s .757 OPS led free agent third basemen, with Sandoval checking in at .739 and Chase Headley at .700. Ramirez will not require nearly the commitment Sandoval will.
Weaknesses/Cons
Metrics suggest Ramirez’s defense was passable this year, though he has had some pretty rough seasons within the last five.
Ramirez will turn 37 next June, so he comes with typical durability question marks. He played 298 games from 2011-12 and a reasonable 133 this year despite a DL stint for a hamstring injury. That’s not bad, but Ramirez seems better suited for an American League team with some DH flexibility, especially if he seeks a multiyear deal.
Ramirez has had a consistent career, but his offense in 2014 was streaky. He posted an OPS over .960 in June and August, yet was under .600 in July and September. He wound up hitting only four home runs in 251 second half plate appearances. Ramirez’s walk rate was down to 4% this year, his worst since his partial 2000 campaign. Baserunning has consistently been a detriment throughout Ramirez’s career.
Personal
Ramirez is married with three children, and he resides with his family in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. The third baseman “lives and breathes for his kids,” a person close to him told MLBTR. When the kids are in school, Ramirez enjoys spending time on his farm in the Dominican.
Ramirez does not exhibit much overt emotion on the field, a trait that drew some criticism in Chicago, perhaps unfairly.
Market
Having spent his entire career in the NL Central, Ramirez has never served as a designated hitter more than five times in a season. He hasn’t played a position other than third base in his entire pro career, so the idea of working him in at first base could be a stretch. Certainly the Brewers would like to bring Ramirez back, as we’ll discuss below. Otherwise, the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Red Sox, Royals, Angels, Yankees, Padres, Giants, and Blue Jays could seek help at the hot corner this offseason. As a veteran who likely has plenty of money in the bank from past contracts, comfort could be a primary factor in Ramirez’s choice.
Expected Contract
Ramirez’s contract situation is complicated. He and the Brewers hold a $14MM mutual option for 2015. On the rare occasions in baseball that both sides of a mutual option have been exercised, it’s never been close to that kind of salary. While a September 17th report from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports said the Brewers intend to pick up their side of the option, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy the topic hasn’t even been broached with the team’s owner or Ramirez’s agent, Paul Kinzer. Realistically, Melvin probably has some idea of what he wants to do, but option decisions aren’t due until after the World Series.
The Brewers do seem likely to pick up their side of the option — they’re faced with a $4MM buyout if they decline it, so the option is effectively only a $10MM decision. If the Brewers pick the option up, Ramirez then has the opportunity to decline and go to free agency, in which case he would not receive a buyout. $14MM is a reasonable salary if Ramirez only wants to play one more year, but he may prefer a longer term. Ramirez suggested in July he’d go for 2,500 career games, a goal of which he is 443 short. That suggests three or four more seasons, but in September, Ramirez was non-committal about what he’d do after 2015.
A two-year deal would be a nice compromise; perhaps Ramirez and the Brewers can work out something that pays around $25MM for that span. I imagine if Ramirez is thinking bigger than that, he’ll have to find it on the open market. One problem: the Brewers can reduce his leverage by making or telling him their intention to make a qualifying offer. I expect them to make that offer if they get to that point. Draft pick forfeiture would affect Ramirez’s market, but not as much as you might think. The players most burned by qualifying offers last winter were asking for big contracts from the outset of free agency. Ramirez might ask for just two years from the start, and I think he could find a team to give it to him even with the draft pick cost attached.
In the somewhat unlikely event that Ramirez hits the open market without a qualifying offer attached, it would help his chances of securing a three-year deal. Still, he’d probably have to sacrifice on average annual value to get a third year, perhaps accepting something like three years and $33MM.
Ultimately, I think Ramirez will sign a two-year, $26MM deal to stay with the Brewers. If he reaches the open market without a draft pick attached, I’ll go with two years and $30MM. If he receives a qualifying offer from the Brewers, I think he’ll turn it down. Even in that scenario, I think he can find the same two-year, $26MM deal on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If I was Ramirez, I’d take the QO.
That is a magnificent picture of Aramis.
The nats
Make no sense as a team that would be interested. They are either going to try zimmerman(likely going to slide to first or play left with Harper in center) or go with rendon
That still leaves third base open.
Not for the nats. Like I said they will either go with Zimmerman or rendon
Zimmerman can’t throw from 3rd anymore. That’s why they moved from to LF and why the Nats will probably let LaRoache walk and move Zimmerman to 1B so that Harper, Span, and Werth can patrol the outfield. Sure, the Nats could move Rendon to 3B but I would think that they would some “thump” in their lineup, preferably from the right side. I’m not sure they could get a 2B who can do that.
He can throw better than Pedro Alvarez.
Potential 2015 Nationals lineup which works: C, Ramos. 1B, Zimmerman. 2B, Rendon. SS, Desmond. 3B, Aramis. LF, Harper. CF, Span. RF, Werth. I don’t see the issue here.
The Carlos Beltran of 3B. He is still good.
$26MM/2 seems a bit light to me. He is essentially this winter’s Beltran, with better defense, but slightly worse bat. I would not be surprised to see him get 3 years, and top $40MM.
I could see the comparison, but Aramis has missed more time recently than Beltran. They’re somewhat close offensively over their three years leading up to free agency (.288/.356/.503 for Beltran, .291/.352/.483 for Aramis) but Beltran had a better walk year offensively and was more consistently strong at the plate and healthier than Aramis. Ramirez is still decent defensively, but I think he compares more to Beltran when Beltran signed with St. Louis a few years ago, when Beltran had no compensation attached to his name at all and signed for 2/26. The QO gets cancelled out by market inflation, but I think 2/26 is reasonable. I don’t see Aramis as a markedly better option than three winters ago when he signed this 3/36 deal in the first place, and he’s obviously three years older, so I can’t see him topping the deal he’s coming off of. I see either a similar deal to what he just got (3/33-36) or a two-year deal in the 25-27 MM range.
I don’t think he wants to play 3 more years.
He doesn’t have to play three years, but he can still sign for three years in case he changes his mind. Better to have that fallback plan.
If he goes on the open market I could see the Red Sox getting involved. He’d command a shorter contract.
The Brewers have a fair amount of leverage here, but I’d like to see the Sox get involved especially if they use their second round pick on Shields. A third rounder shouldn’t be an issue on a two year deal.
They lose the Comp B pick from the A’s. Probably top 75.
Ah yes. I suppose that doesn’t change much regarding Ramirez unless he’s the top FA they sign.
Is the top 10 draft pick protected if you sign two FAs? I thought it was 2nd rd but a second QO signing would cost the 1st rd?
Nope, the 1st is protected.
Sox have to decide or evaluate if Bogaerts a Major League SS. That would be my first concern. I am not impressed with him at that position. 3rd might be his calling.
I think in the short-term Bogaerts can definitely handle SS. He’s probably going to project as a third baseman long-term, similar to the shift Hanley should be making right now, but for the duration of an A-Ram contract I think Bogaerts can handle short just fine.
Red Sox pick this guy up
They’re looking for a lefty, so that is unlikely.
would make sense for the mariners if he was willing to dh fulltime, but i doubt he would want to give up playing 3b
Aramis Ramirez is one of the worst post season players of all time.
Saying someone who hit 3 HR with 7 RBIs in a single series is one of the worst postseason players is a stretch. Yes .194/.299/.433 isn’t good but a .733 OPS is still pretty decent.
In back to back seasons when he was 29 and 30 (his prime) he was a combined 2 for 23 with no HRs and no RBIs (approx .300 OPS) against AZ and the Dodgers… the Cubs were big favorites against both teams but were swept in both series. I also recall him kicking the ball around the infield in big games.
It’s hard to blame Aramis for the Cubs demise in 2007 and 2008 since Alfonso Soriano hit even worse than A-Ram (3 for 28 with an OPS of .245) and only two of the six starters pitched made it past the fifth inning. It appears to me the whole team broke down not just one player.
I’m not blaming Ramirez for them losing those series… I am merely stating the FACT that he was a terrible post season performer in the prime of his career. That you point out the fact that Soriano was also terrible, does not negate my point in the least. Ted Lilly was throwing his mitt on the ground and all 4 infielders made errors in the same playoff game… we’ll probably never see that again. Dempster had won something like 14 or his previous 15 Wrigley Field starts before losing his start at home in the playoffs.
You are right that there is plenty of blame to go around, but my accurate point was that Aramis Ramirez was a terrible post season performer those two seasons. By the way, the season that the Cubs got swept by the Dodgers, I believe they led the league in both OPS and ERA.
No your original statement was that he was one of the worst postseason players of all time not just for those two seasons. I’m positive plenty of players have had good and bad postseasons just like Aramis. Someone like Vlad Guerrero could be classified as “all time” based on his dramatic splits over the course of his playing career (Career OPS .931, Postseason OPS .664). On a side note, I’m a huge fan of Vlad but the numbers do not lie.
You could also include Prince Fielder in the “all time” discussion when discussing recent players (Career OPS of .910, Postseason OPS .620).
Ramirez has been solid for the crew but I wonder if the money is better spent on a more consistent bat at either 3b or 1b. I feel like there’s just too many guys that run hot and cold in the lineup. He, like Prince, is an anchor in the middle of a pretty good running lineup as well.
I think a lot of teams would be in play at two years. There would be fewer teams willing to offer three years at his age.
Great article on Ramirez.
I’m a Brewer fan that’s seen Ramirez close up. I think he’s about done. He flashes his old self, but when the team really needed him down the stretch he was dreadful and looked old and tired. I hope he believes there are teams out there that will give him a two year $26-$30 million deal, because then he’ll turn his option down and save the Brewers the $4 million buyout. No way the Brewers offer him two years.