MLB Trade Rumors is firing up this year’s version of the Free Agent Faceoff series, in which comparable free agents are analyzed side by side. Each post will conclude with a reader vote on the value of the players involved. The first faceoff featured three shortstops. In the second, we’ll look at a pair of starters:
It’s a common consensus this year that the free agent class for starting pitchers has a great deal of separation between the top three starters — Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields — and the rest of the class. While opinions on the ranking of those three vary (perhaps a topic for another installment in this series!), there’s a cloudier picture when it comes to the second tier of free agents. Most of the pitchers in the second tier come with some form of blemish on their record, be it a checkered injury history, the possibility of a qualifying offer, inconsistent year-to-year results or some combination of the above. Today we’ll take a look at a pair of 31-year-old starters who can each try to make a case that he’s the best among the second tier: Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy. (This is, of course, not to say that the “best among the second tier” is specifically limited to these two.)
McCarthy vs. Santana is somewhat of a case of tantalizing upside versus steady and reliable. McCarthy totaled an even 200 innings in 2014 — the first time in his career he’s reached that mark and just the second time in which he’s topped 180 frames. Santana, on the other hand, threw 196 innings and has topped the 200 mark on five occasions in his career. He’s averaged 207 innings per season over the past five years — durability to which McCarthy cannot lay claim.
In four of the aforementioned seasons, Santana has posted an ERA south of 4.00 — bottoming out at 3.24 last season in Kansas City. McCarthy’s best seasons came in 2011-12 with Oakland when he posted a combined 3.29 ERA in 281 1/3 innings. However, those two seasons are the only in which he’s successfully kept his ERA under 4.00.
To this point, the argument seems skewed heavily in Santana’s favor, but McCarthy’s case is certainly not without merit. When looking at the two through a sabermetric lens, McCarthy can be seen as not only the better pitcher, but arguably one of the better pitchers in the league. McCarthy’s 2.86 FIP in 2011 led the league, and a comparison of their marks in ERA (3.81 vs. 3.87), FIP (3.44 vs. 4.19), xFIP (3.43 vs. 3.88) and SIERA (3.60 vs. 3.93) all favor McCarthy. The Yankees were likely drawn to McCarthy’s sabermetric profile this July when trading for him, and that investment paid off handsomely, as McCarthy pitched to a stellar 2.89 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 90 1/3 innings down the stretch.
McCarthy has generated more ground-balls than Santana since buying into sabermetric principles back in 2009, but he took his ground-ball rate to a new level in 2014 (52.6 percent) while Santana regressed in the same area (42.7 percent). Both pitchers possess strong command and can miss bats, but McCarthy has shown better control over the past four seasons while Santana has bested McCarthy in strikeout rate each year. McCarthy’s strikeout rate did jump in 2014, along with his velocity (career-best 92.9 mph average fastball), but Santana’s strikeout rate rose as well (even against non-pitchers in the NL).
Other factors to consider: Santana will pitch all of next season at age 32, while McCarthy won’t be 32 until July. Additionally, Santana is eligible to receive a qualifying offer, meaning he could again come with draft pick compensation attached to his name; McCarthy is ineligible to receive a QO after being traded midseason.
Each player has been on the receiving end of a Free Agent Profile at MLBTR (McCarthy’s penned by me, Santana’s by Tim Dierkes), which provide even more in-depth looks at the pros and cons of each. Use those as you wish to help formulate an opinion before voting…
I’m going to take Santana on this one. Will post the same stars but give you more innings.
It’s tough to evaluate in a vacuum. If Santana has a QO that obviously hurts his value. If Santana is going to require more years at a higher AAV then that’s going to hurt his value. If your team needs a guy that can go 200+ innings you might look at things differently than a team that is deep and can sustain the loss of McCarthy if/when he gets injured.
Dollars and QO’s equal and assuming we are talking about very short term commitment, I would roll the dice on McCarthy.
I would like MLB Trade Rumors to provide an analysis of what the draft pick is worth to an average team. My guess… $7MM, if it not protected, otherwise less.
I’d be curious, too. I’m skimming through the 2009 first round, because it’s five years ago, and a prospect should be able to work his way through the organization and onto a major league roster:
– 49 first round picks (regular and compensatory)
– about 1/2 have made it on a major league roster at some point (I’ve not cross-checked this completely)
– 3 All Stars
– 3 did not sign
Here’s some more numbers:
First Round (first 32 picks)
All Stars: 3
Other players on 2014 MLB Rosters: 16
Players not active in 2014, but previous years: 2
Players yet to make MLB debuts: 9
Did not sign: 2
Compensatory Round (next 17 picks)
All Stars: 0
Other players on 2014 MLB Rosters: 8
Players not active in 2014, but previous years: 2
Players yet to make MLB debuts: 6
Did not sign: 1
Total First Round
All Stars: 3
Other players active on 2014 MLB Rosters: 24
Players not active in 2014: 4
Players yet to make MLB debuts: 15
Did not sign: 3
Assuming a 3x multiplier for the slot value of a pick, it was on average about five and a half million last year.
But it’s too team-specific to really assess w/r/t a single free agent. if the clubs interested in player X all happen to hold the top-ten unprotected picks, and don’t intend to sign multiple guys who rejected qualifying offers, then that’s a much bigger hit than other circumstances.
Got into that here: mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/contextualizing-the-qua…
Excellent stuff Jeff. You may consider adding these value to the narrative of your articles when each Free Agent signs.
It was interesting to see how much Cruz’s cost went down after Baltimore signed Ubaldo.
McCarthy. You probably don’t have to sign him to a deal more than 2 year and a vesting option and when healthy he is better than Santana. The problem is “when healthy”. You never know if he can hold up though since his resurgence with the A’s, McCarthy has been “somewhat” healthy. Only has one arm-related injury and that awful line drive incident which more of a freak injury than anything else.
Nah, sometimes it’s just better to go with the guy you can reliably count on for 200 innings of solid ball.
McCarthy will get more like 4 years 48 million…. not two years. People every year are surprised at how much free a agent pitcher gets… and this year will be not be any different.
The only pitchers that seem to get overpaid are innings eaters (ex. Nolasco last year). No team is guaranteeing McCarthy 4 years.
Two words: “Ubaldo Jimenez” he got 50M over 4 years and he hasn’t even hit 190 innings since 2010.
I’d put a large sum of money on McCarthy getting 3 years guaranteed. He may not get the fourth guaranteed (I think an option is very likely) but I think it’s possible if he drops his AAV demand to secure it, only 2 years guaranteed is a pipe dream in my opinion.
I disagree. No one says you just have to throw 190 innings, 200 innings, 210 innings, etc. to be an innings eater. Ubaldo has made at least 30 starts every year since he has been a full-time starter except for this year. He is a durable guy and that is valuable. While his innings aren’t always productive, you know he can go out and pitch for the team if needed.
There are enough good mid-tier pitchers that you don’t have to give McCarthy a large sum at 3 years unless there is a bidding war between GMs that struck out on their other options. 2 years with a vesting option is very reasonable.
“No one says you just have to throw 190 innings, 200 innings, 210 innings, etc. to be an innings eater.”
That’s kind of the definition.
” Ubaldo has made at least 30 starts every year since he has been a full-time starter except for this year”
That would make him a start eater but not an innings eater.
“2 years with a vesting option is very reasonable.”
I agree it’s reasonable I disagree that it will happen, I’d say him getting 3 years guaranteed is almost a lock. McCarthy got 2 years coming off a 111 IP season in Oakland, he’s going to get at least 3 coming off of a 200 IP season, with those peripherals, the second half he had in NY, and the best velocity of his career.
The definition of innings eater has nothing to do with a predetermined set of innings though 200 seems to be the holy number. The concept of an innings eater is a guy who makes all of his starts while giving you a quality start in at least innings (6 innings per game) which is what Ubaldo has done. There is no such thing as a “start eater”.
It is true that McCarthy got 2 years from the D’Backs but the total value wasn’t that high at 18 million between the 2 years. Not reasonable. I’m at 2 year with a vesting option, you’re at 3 years. We’re not that far apart. Agree to disagree? I need to go to sleep… haha.
Actually the definition of innings eater is a guy who eats up innings and saves the pen, Ubaldo is a 5 inning per start pitcher, if anything he taxes the bullpen on the days he starts.
You’re at 2 years guaranteed maximum with no chance he can get 4, I’m at 3 guaranteed minimum with a real shot at a 4th guaranteed. That’s a pretty far bit apart and I’m sure McCarthy feels the same. But yeah if agree to disagree.
I don’t know about you but, I would rather have a guy who has the ability of number 2 starter than a guy who could be at best a number 4 starter… even if that number 2 starter might miss some time. I am guessing he gets 4 years along with a vesting option… In my opinion it is not the smartest thing to do although desperation does wonders.
McCarthy at his best is not a #4. Like I said above, no team is guaranteeing McCarthy 4 years. Everyone knows he is an injury risk. Injury risks don’t get guaranteed 4 years.
I believe he was calling McCarthy the number two starter and Ubaldo the number four.
I don’t think so. I know you and I were discussing Ubaldo. I believe that Kyle was claiming that Ervin is a #2 and McCarthy is a #4 at their respective best which just isn’t true.
But Santana doesn’t miss time…
“even if that number 2 starter might miss some time”
That’s the line that made me think he was referring to McCarthy as the 2, I could be wrong though.
I don’t think any of the above are number 2 quality in a playoff rotation though.
Most teams realize that he is a big injury risk… but like I said desperation makes teams do crazy things. McCarthy pitched like a #2 in New York
I am choosing McCarthy because he is good at Twitter
right on
Wait and get the cheaper one.
More upside to McCarthy, does not come with a QO, and he probably is asking for a lesser salary. That’s my pick.
If I’m a rebuilding team, I go with McCarthy as I think less years and overall investment would be required and no 1st round draft pick loss if I’m a rebuilding team with out a top 10. If I’m going for it in 15/16 I’m taking Santana as he’s more big game to me, and while Santana’s numbers aren’t great in the post season, atleast he’s been while McCarthy has never been. I think also if I’m rebuilding because of the lower investment McCarthy will be easier to flip. Just had to add some context to make my decision.
How is bad postseason experience a trump card over no postseason experience? Surely McCarthy can post a 1.3 WHIP and over 5 ERA as easily as anyone else…
I like Santana’s durability more, but with a QO attached I’d go with McCarthy. I bet Santana wishes he’d accepted the QO last year now.
As a Yankee fan I’d be terrified of Santana in YS3, he held the HRs down in the NL this year I’ve always seen him as a bad fit in that park. For that reason I’d go McCarthy but I’m not giving either one 4 years period.
I thought Santana put in his contract that he couldn’t get a QO and if they do offer him the 14 million he should take it. And yes I would absolutely take Santana over McCarthy bc he is better.
I have always like McCarthy and long thought he was underrated. I was thrilled when the Yankees traded for him, and he pitched great for them. With the exception of two starts, he pitched well enough that the Yankees always had a decent shot to win. I’d love to see what would happen if he’d had run support. I’d resign him, for sure.