Blue Jays first baseman/DH Adam Lind has drawn interest from a number of teams, including National League clubs, reports Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. One executive tells Elliott that he hears at least three or four teams have called to check in on the 31-year-old Lind.
The Blue Jays hold a $7.5MM club option on Lind, whose contract also contains an $8MM club option for the 2016 campaign. Lind batted .321/.381/.479 with six homers, 24 doubles and a pair of triples in 318 plate appearances this season, though he missed some time with a fractured right foot that was initially misdiagnosed. While his slash line looks appealing, it should be noted that the Blue Jays have shielded him almost entirely from left-handed pitching in recent years. Many players have platoon deficiencies, but Lind is an extreme example, as evidenced by his lifetime .212/.257/.331 batting line against southpaws.
Nevertheless, Lind’s price tag makes him an appealing option for a team like Pittsburgh, in my opinion, as a club that has a potential need at first base but lacks the financial muscle to bring in a more traditionally expensive slugger. The Padres and Marlins could also make some sense as a trade partner for the Blue Jays, and within the American League it wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians, White Sox or Mariners (to name a few clubs) had some interest in Lind as well. Of course, all of these teams are solely my speculation, although the Pirates did show interest in Lind on multiple occasions last winter.
Obviously, the Blue Jays will first have to make a decision on whether or not to exercise Lind’s option or pay a $1MM buyout, but it seems like a fairly easy call given the relatively modest price and his production against opposite-handed pitching.
Nobody wanted him a few years ago at 5 million dollars.
Now, folks want him at 7.5 and a possible 8?
I just SMH!
As a side note, I would have taken him at 5, but I am not in charge of anything that counts around here these days! =P
A few years ago, he wasn’t worth 5 million dollars.
A few years can do a lot to a player’s career. A lot can happen between that time frame.
Why not a team like the Brewers? Huge need at 1B plus need a lefty with power.
Do they have a platoon partner? At 1B, the lefty half of the platoon is the easy part. He actually might fit better as the lefty half of a DH platoon.
I guess it depends if they’ve decided whether or not Jason Rogers has any value other than Melvin’s desire to have an emergency backup to the emergency backup buried in AAA.
The Brewers have players within that could fit as a platoon partner. Jason Rogers (.316/.379/.568 at AAA) is one if he doesn’t replace Ramirez at 3B. Sean Halton who had a brief trial in 2013, hit .342/.387/.509 against lefties at AAA in 2014. Halton can also play either corner OF spot. He’s not currently on the 40 man.
I recall Roenicke being asked about Halton and he called him a “grinder.” Given the tone at the time I came away with the impression that he was saying something akin to he works hard but doesn’t have enough talent. Maybe I’m totally wrong. They have 2 potential RH and 2 potential LH bats to play 1st. I’d hope they’d bring them all to ST, but…
Sure, if we bring back Mark Reynolds… the thought of which just depresses me. Not as much as an Overbay/Reynolds platoon, since Lind can actually hit righties, but still.
So, let’s have a look here. Lind is a lefty bat with some power and decent on-base skills. He also has a hilarious platoon split, and only plays defense in so much as he stands on the field in the vicinity of first base. All this points to Doug Melvin being interested.
But, in all seriousness, if we can find a platoon partner for Lind that is better than Reynolds, this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea. $7.5MM isn’t really that much (although it is more than we paid our first basemen this year, but less than we paid Rickie Weeks). We’d just be sacrificing defense.
honestly he’s not that bad at first, he passes the eye test for me
That would make the worlds worst right side of the infield vs. Lefties. I don’t know if it would be smart to make a move like that. I’d rather them go after a guy that can play everyday.
If we can find a good platoon partner (NOT Reynolds), this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea. But I agree, I’d much rather find an everyday guy.
Adam Lind is like shifting Weeks over to first base…they are pretty comparable players. Good offense with a couple giant holes and defense that takes away any offensive value.
Which is, admittedly, still better than what we had this year. But not by much, and not what we should be looking for. I just don’t really know what else we can find, though. It’s gonna be interesting to see who we end up with.
So should we bring back Rickie Weeks for a couple million? He would make us better off at 2nd after all.
Honestly I think the moneyball mentality can only go far. Sure on paper all these platoons would look good but we need guys who can play every day. We already have two guys with pretty bad splits, another probably just isn’t a good idea.
I’d also be concerned with the defense too with the addition of Lind. Davis, Braun, and Lind are easily below average. Gennett, Segura, and Ramirez are average. So 6/8 positions would be average or worse…a little concerning if you ask me.
Hey, I’m not advocating for it. I’m just saying, there isn’t really much out there, and I don’t know if we’d have a better option than another platoon. I certainly would prefer to get a real, everyday option. Yeah, the defense would be a concern, for sure. It will be anyway, but with Lind it would be worse.
The only everyday option who is a major upgrade over the Reynolds/Overbay platoom in 2014 is LaRoche but I wouldn’t want to go over two years with a team option for a third to get him.
Yeah, I agree. Not to mention the price he’d likely command would be too much. I mean, he’s probably gonna get between $13MM-$15MM, and I just really don’t think we should be paying that for him. We picked a bad time to need a first baseman.
The problem with trading Lind is that he’s basically worth that salary and won’t bring back a substantial return. The Jays could use an outfielder, a second baseman, or bullpen help. Maybe starting depth that isn’t a carbon copy of Happ. Lind can get an alright reliever, but is that worth trading him?
Could Lind and Nolin bring in Michael Saunders though?
Mariners are not in the market for a LH hitting 1B/DH bat and aren’t going to move one their only options at their weakest position. The Mariners want, and need, two RH bats with one likely being a corner outfielder and one at 1B/DH. They are looking for guys they can slot in the order at the 4 and 6 slots.
Brad Miller justifiably lost playing time to Taylor at ss this year. However, Miller actually had the same or more HR’s than all of your 1B/DH options. Hart, Morrison, Morales & Smoak.
You don’t think Mariners need an upgrade at 1b/dh?
They need an upgrade at 1B/DH, but their outfield is more desperate need than a position that can be filled with stand ins (similar to what the Brewers did this year somewhat successfully). Besides, giving away the only possible good spot of the outfield situation would just make more problems than it would fix.
Maybe, but I don’t really see the point unless the Jays wanted Saunders to play CF full time and I’m not sure that Lind is worth weakening the M’s outfield depth.
No. He’ll be a fall back option for a team like the White Sox if they miss out on any of the available free agent lefty bats.
The only purpose of trading Lind is to get Edwin near full time as DH. Edwin spending the majority of the time as DH should allow him to stay healthy and the 20-30 games he doesn’t DH, Bautista and Reyes could occupy that position and stay fresh.
Also, I wouldn’t mind freeing up Lind’s salary to sign say Pablo Sandoval to a 3yr deal. Pablo can alternate between 3B/1B depending if it’s a LHP starting as Valencia should be in the lineup. I would also recommend trading Romero for BJ Upton with the Braves eating 70-80% of Upton’s contract and offsetting all his 2015 due salary with what Romero is due to make. The Braves have made it clear he’s close to non-conditional release territory and Upton’s power should return in the hitter friendly AL, even if it doesn’t getting him for $4-5M a season for 2016-2017 doesn’t kill the team. Then the Jays can get an additional $7.5M for this season to bring Cabrera back.
Sandoval isn’t going to sign for a 3 year deal.
Rogers is a hitter friendly park, but Upton’s problems aren’t because he’s in the NL. The AL’s reputation for hitting is largely becasue it has the DH and Upton wouldn’t be playing there.
Sandoval having the body type that breaks down young hurts his chance to get a long term deal. If someone gives it to him, more power to them. Unless he goes the David Ortiz route of taking tainted protein shakes, I doubt he’ll be producing at 33-34. A smart GM doesn’t give Sandoval more than 3 years guaranteed, club options with buyouts is probably the only chance he has to get more.
Also, no BJ Upton’s game has been power for awhile. Playing in AL East ballparks compared to ALL pitcher friendly and extremely pitcher friendly NL East ballparks has something to do with his declining numbers.
Just like Prince Fielder wouldn’t get a long term deal because of his body type? Obviously not the same level of player, but a productive bat that can play average defence will get (and want) more than 3 yrs.
Not even close to the same player and how well did that Fielder contract turn out? I guess good for the team that traded him, they got Ian Kinsler in return for him. Fielder’s power is declining and he’s a defensive liability that’s only going to get worse as he ages.
Not even close to the same player and how well did that Fielder contract turn out? I guess good for the team that traded him, they got Ian Kinsler in return for him. Fielder’s power is declining and he’s a defensive liability that’s only going to get worse as he ages.
Fielder came to the AL to play DH, so his defence is a bad argument. His injury this year was bad for him, but not something anyone could have predicted, beyond the very naive ‘his body type is bound to make him get injured later on’ statements. He is having a similar or the same surgery that Peyton Manning had a few years ago and he should be able to return. I am not a doctor and don’t know how it will affect him, but thats beside the point. Panda, like any other quality bad, will take advantage of that one or two teams who are desperate and will negotiate a longer term deal. I’m not saying a team should do it, but the leverage and talent provide the perfect situation for him to get more than 4/5 years.
Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Bengie Molina, Carlos Lee, Jim Thome, Wily Mo Pena, Adam Dunn, Rod Barajas, Randall Simon, Dmitri Young, David Ortiz, Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder.
^How Many of these guys broke before 33-34? I rest my case. Only 2 guys didn’t break down and the only real exception is Thome as Ortiz showed signs of breaking down in 2008-2009 (age 32-33) before finding form again “somehow”.
Fielder at DH slugging .450 with no speed and a OBP of about .360 is probably under 2.0WAR a year. He’s really worth any of that contract he signed then? DH’s don’t make $20M+ for a reason.
Again Sandoval won’t even be 33 by the time a 5 year contract has expired, so your argument isn’t valid.
Go look up the aging curve on Batting, Positional & UZR for heavy set men it’s on Fangraphs listed “How will Prince Fielder Age”. Until you look that up I will no longer reply to you because the comments of “your argument isn’t valid” doesn’t make sense unless I show you the aging chart. Defense is the first thing to go in a heavy set man and it goes real quick and noticeably. Is Sandoval going to defy the aging curve on defense or will it force him to be a non productive DH/1B in a matter of 2 years?
Based on the article you referenced and giving Sandoval a current WAR value of 3.0 his next five seasons would be worth: 2.8, 2.6, 2.4, 2.5, 2.0 amounting to 12.3 WAR over the life of the contract with a value of $61.5M (again using the $5M value in the article). Now add in the fact he will likely have multiple teams bidding for his services which lets just say adds $2M to his AAV and we are still looking at just a slight overpay on a 5 year deal. Also you mentioned giving him no more than 3 years while Fangraphs estimates he will slightly improve in his fourth season. Hard to argue the math.
That’s if his defense holds up at 3B, you really expect him not to breakdown like many and I mean many people of his build have before at age 30? The chart at fangraphs doesn’t lie, if he moves to 1B/DH he becomes a replacement level player positing a .730OPS.
What players are you referring to that have drastically declined before they turn 30? This is usually the age they begin declining but it’s rarely a drastic decline.
Also the article already takes defensive decline into account when determining its fugues and I can’t think I a single player who went from an above average defensive player (finalist for the GG) to replacement level in two years let alone by the age of 30.
Your article also states the largest drop off in production occurs in the final two years of the 7 year deal which would not be the case for any team signing Sandoval to a 5 year deal.
I’m not sure you really get what why I think he will get 5 years. While I agree with you that if guys like that sign long term deals, it is likely to be regrettable later on. The teams that will offer 5 yrs+ for one of these athletes will prefer the immediate reward over the future financial risk. Also, Pablo is 28, so he has 4/5 season before your imposed breakdown year. Meaning, his break down won’t happen for 5 or so years and therefore isn’t a risk. All I’m saying is Pablo is still young enough, productive enough, and solid enough defensively for a team (likely AL – DH option) to offer him a longer term deal without fearing it being too big of a risk. Also, since Pablo isn’t an elite player in the league, the yearly value of the contract likely won’t be too extreme anyways.
I’m too lazy to write an article on this as I already did with Bryan P who seems to think Fielder isn’t a bust yet.
“Go look up the aging curve on Batting, Positional & UZR for heavy set men it’s on Fangraphs listed “How will Prince Fielder Age”. Until you look that up I will no longer reply to you because the comments of “your argument isn’t valid” doesn’t make sense unless I show you the aging chart. Defense is the first thing to go in a heavy set man and it goes real quick and noticeably. Is Sandoval going to defy the aging curve on defense or will it force him to be a non productive DH/1B in a matter of 2 years?”
Obviously I don’t mean to sound mean to you as I did to him. If he moves off 3B he becomes a replacement level 1B/DH as someone who is putting up a .730OPS at those positions is usually a journeyman.
Your whole argument is based on the assumption Sandoval will not be able to stick at 3B w” after he turns 30. My response, using your article, shows Pablo will still be a 2.0 WAR player in the final year of a five year contract. In the same article it states heavier set players tend to show decline on the defensive side first. The article is referring to a player who even in his prime was an average defender at best versus Sandoval who is considered above average at his position so even if he declines over the final two years of his contract when he is 31-32 will still be at the very least serviceable similar to Aramis Ramirez was in 2014. So based on the statistical information you are citing to argue your point, Sandoval is still deserving of a 5 year deal and will play its entirety at 3B.
Actually Fielder would likely increase is value by not playing 1B since his negative defensive value actually takes away from his overall value.
Career oWAR: 32.7
Career dWAR: -18.0
I will be amazed if Sandoval gets less than a 4 year deal. He, like Fielder, has proven to be durable despite their body types. As a GM, I would feel more comfortable signing the Panda to a 5 year deal than Hanley Ramirez based on past production.
Fielder WAS durable up until this year. I want all the names of guys with Fielders/Sandovals body type that didn’t break down completely before the age of 33-34. The list should be extremely small.
Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs wrote an article detailing how Fielder might age back in 2011, guys of his body size breakdown dramatically at 30+.
I don’t see how any of this matters. There are a lot of things that are proven to never work out…but teams still do them. Everyone on the planet knew Pujols wasn’t worth his contract…but that didn’t stop teams from chasing after him.
This isn’t about what he is worth, it is about what he will get. Someone will give Sandoval 4+ years…no doubt about it.
Teams only give long term contracts out to people because they expect them to produce at a high level for good deal of the years. Most teams don’t expect guys to turn into albatrosses right off the bat. Small framed heavy men like Sandoval and Fielder are extremely unpredictable.
Look at Fielder, do you think anyone would’ve gave him that contract if they knew he’d breakdown this young? The guy’s probably going to need to be DH’d next season and his declining power numbers are alarming.
Fielder put up solid numbers his first two seasons in Detroit (.295/.387/.491) and had only missed 1 game between 2009 and 2013 (809 games out of 810). The fact he needed surgery to fix a herniated disk doesn’t prove anything. Even if you include this past season he has still averaged over 147 games per season.
Sandoval will only be 32 during the last season of a 5 year contract. At this time (2020 season), is when teams will begin shying away from anything over 3 years not when he is still in his prime years.
The list would be small of players who fit this description to begin with. My guess is there have been less than 10-15 players who would fit the bill. Of those, David Ortiz and Babe Ruth come to mind as players who continued producing into their mid to late 30’s.
Ruth was the innovator of cheating, people wrote books on how Ruth tried everything to give himself an advantage from injecting himself to using corked bats that were varnished. Guys in his day hit on average 7-8 homers a season, he was hitting 5-6 times as many as them.
You can look up why those rules were added and many of them were put in there because of Ruth outplaying everyone.
You can also argue players today are far better conditioned than players even 10-20 years ago let alone a player who binged on alcohol, cigarettes and food prior to games.
You’re right about Sandoval’s body type, but he’s still looking at a 5 year deal at least. Maybe even 6 with an option. A 28 year old coming off a 3.3 WAR season and a WS appearance is going to get at least 5 with no trouble.
Upton is likely better off in the AL East than the NL, but his extreme drop can’t be chalked up to where he’s playing. He fell apart, simple as that.
Unless they move Alvarez, the Buccos have no need for Lind.
The Pirates were interested in Lind but pretty sure that was before the Ike Davis deal. Between him and Pedro Alvarez – who, far as I know, is a permanent 1B now – I don’t see where Lind would fit in. Unless the Bucs clear house and trade both Pedro and Ike there’d be a logjam of lefties at 1B and I’m not really seeing where Lind is a giant upgrade. He’ll still need to be platooned and one of the Bucs’ biggest problems is Gaby Sanchez is terrible as righty in that mix.
If the Bucs ditch the 1B platoon – and this is a radical idea for them – maybe they should maybe find somebody who could play everyday and hit both right and left handed pitching instead of filling the position with two mediocre guys.
I would guess that Gaby is not coming back, and I would guess that Ike will be shopped around. But I am also not certain that the Abu s are sold on Pedro being the answer at 1st. I agree that it’s unlikely that the Bucs would be interested in Lind, but it wouldn’t shock me if they are either. He would at least be significantly better than Davis turned out to be.
Davis is more likely to go; Pedro still has major troubles with left handed pitching.
Very true, but Gaby no longer seems to be the answer to hitting lefties. If they keep going with the platoon idea at 1B, I would expect them to move on from Gaby and find someone else as the righty platoon half.
Adam has had back problems for the past three years. No indication they are going away and for that reason it is not that easy a decision for the Jays. He tried a rigorous yoga program in the off season and he was hopeful the back issues were behind him (joke intended). But it did not work out that way and he spent many many weeks on the DL this year.
I could see the Jays going with a Lind/Valencia platoon at 1B next season. Their numbers vs. righties/lefties respectively would work well enough. Problem is, they can’t platoon at three positions, CF and 2B being the other two. Maybe Izturis has a decent season and maybe Gose finally starts hitting enough to be an every day player. But if the Jays have any desire to contend in 2015 I think Anthopoulos needs to be more pro-active in the offseason than waiting and hoping average players play above average.
Who exactly would the Blue Jays have left at 1B/DH if they traded him?