Several executives around baseball are starting to think James Shields will receive some five-year offers in free agency this winter, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. This would be a sizable commitment in a pitcher who will be 33 years old on Opening Day, and since the Red Sox don’t like guaranteeing that many years to pitchers in their 30’s, the team could offer Shields a four-year deal with a higher ($20MM) average annual value. If this isn’t enough to land Shields, however, Lauber feels by that point the Sox should just increase their offer to Jon Lester.
Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- In a radio interview on The Jeff Blair Show (Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith has the audio link and partial transcript) Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said the team had had “some conversations” with Melky Cabrera about a new contract though seemingly little progress has been made. “Clearly both sides right now can’t seem to get together for various reasons,” Anthopoulos said. “I don’t think it’s fair for anyone to assume that there hasn’t been dialogue. I wouldn’t assume that there haven’t been proposals exchanged.”
- Beyond just on-the-field upgrades, the Blue Jays also need to re-establish trust between the clubhouse and upper management, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines. Some Jays players were openly upset with the front office’s lack of major spending or acquisitions over the last year, and while Davidi doesn’t cite this lack of trust as the key reason why the Jays missed the playoffs, it obviously helps to have everyone in the organization on the same page.
- The Orioles’ success over the last three seasons wouldn’t have been possible without former president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes. While MacPhail’s departure following the 2011 season coincided with Baltimore’s return to contention, manager Buck Showalter and several of the O’s best players joined the organization on MacPhail’s watch.
- J.J. Hardy’s extension with the Orioles only enhances Xander Bogaerts’ value to the Red Sox, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. A young, controllable star at shortstop who can contribute both offensive and defensively is a major commodity, though Bogaerts obviously still work to do to establish himself on that level. “How much of a step forward Bogaerts can take at shortstop will have quite a bit to do with how much of a step forward the Red Sox can take in the American League East,” MacPherson writes.
- In other AL East news from earlier today on MLBTR, I collected a set of Yankees Notes and Jeff Todd featured Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus in a Free Agent Profile.
The Jays players didn’t get injured and stop performing because they didn’t trust the ownership, though having a guy like Gibbons manning the helm can’t help morale.
How can Bogaertz be called a star after a less than stellar rookie season? Granted I have high hopes for him too but let him prove himself before calling him a star
I think you missed the end of that sentence.
“though Bogaerts obviously still work to do to establish himself on that level”
I really don’t understand why the Jays stood still last winter. 2 Winters ago they took that big gamble and shipped several prospects out to get better, but never really were they complete. They should have been big movers last winter, and they probably could have been true contenders.
Isn’t Bogaerts considered a bad defensive SS? Hence him playing 3rd any chance they get
Actually he was playing 3rd because they had a more capable SS in Stephen Drew for the last 2 years.
And they signed Drew because they weren’t confident in Bogaert’s ability to handle short effectively
Yea that was Farrell’s decision to pursue and bring him back. The front office felt he was more than capable playing SS but Farrell didn’t think he was.
he is a worse 3rd Baseman and it hindered his offense
I’m pretty sure MLB pitching hindered Bogaerts hitting
“A young, controllable star at shortstop.” Slow down there Mac, not exactly sure when Bogaerts became a star. He’s shown flashes but hasn’t exactly put it together yet. So potential star? Yes. Currently a star? No.
I was told here last winter that Bogaerts was a 6 WAR player now. That sounds like a star to me.
by who? 6 WAR might be his ceiling in his peak years. Even if he has a dWAR of 0.0 there are only a select few with a 6+ oWAR. I have no doubt when he puts on some muscle on that rail-like body he will hit 30+ homers with .290+ middle of the order bat.
You are defending a player who hasn’t proven anything at the major league level for more than a few weeks at a time and saying “he will hit 30+ homers with a .290+ average.” How about tempering expectations and not saying he will be Tulo. There are not many players like that.
Seems like everyone missed the part where he said “though Bogaerts obviously still work to do to establish himself on that level”
As a Red Sox fan I’m not sure I want Shields for 5 years, the guy is in his 30s and doesn’t deserve 20 mil a year when he’s terrible in the Postseason.
I would rather have them give Lester 7/140 than give Shields 4/80
Exactly at least Lester is proven to win in the Regular season and Postseason.
Taking away the names, here is a comparison of the two players over the last 3 years.
SP A: 638.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 111 ERA+, 8.3 rWAR, 13.5 fWAR
SP B: 683.1 IP, 3.29 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 121 ERA+, 10.1 rWAR, 12.0 fWAR
Which one would you rather give 7/140 to rather than 4/80 for the other again?
in fairness Lester had, hands down, his worst year in 2012 and in turn I’d consider it to be an outlier. Hard to knock him too much especially considering that was the only full year in which he had a WAR under 3. Replacing 12 with 11 would probably skew the results quite a bit
Yeah, I’ll take player A. Lester is the better pitcher right now and going forward. Those numbers include Lester’ s uncharacteristically bad 2012. He’s you get and has better peripherals than Shields.
Id prefer having Lester back but if it cant be done they have to get one of Scherzer or Shields in which case I think Shields would be a better signing. Id also like to see them give Masterson a 1-2 year deal. He can attempt to rebuild his value and the Sox really need all the pitching they can get. McCarthy is another guy to consider.
Actually, according to my statistics the Green Monster and his father has a better WAR here! =P
“Big Game James” continues to flounder in big games. Definitely has me rethinking how well he’d hold up as ace of the Sox.
Nice nickname, but Lester is twice the pitcher.
How do you figure? Since 2010 these two players have almost identical stats.
Lester: 1038 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.52 xFIP
Shields: 1136 IP, 3.53 EAR, 3.62 FIP, 3.46 xFIP
Pedro Martinez said it best: Shields loses focus as the game progresses.
I doubt the Red Sox sign Shields, or Scherzer, or Lester. The “dollars after age 30” are too big in all three cases.
The Red Sox won the World Series with ZERO $20MM players. They need to build from the middle of their roster, not the top.
All three of the Sox recent WS teams have featured elite talent that made between 13-16 million a season. Though Pedro’s deal was the largest at the time he signed it, by 04 that was no longer close to being the case.
That kind of talent isn’t available anymore for that price.
and if you compare the market from 2004 to now Pedro would have made close to 20 if not more. in todays market he would be a 30 million player.
The Sox need arms, they have the money to spend, they’ll probably spend it.
“How much of a step forward Bogaerts can take at shortstop will have quite a bit to do with how much of a step forward the Red Sox can take in the American League East,” MacPherson writes.
even if Bogaerts plays to the potential that he has given his age, it is completely unfair to put how successful the red sox will be on his shoulders. there are more than enough players on that team to make the red sox successful.
Fair or not when you look at their lineup it’s evident he has to hit at an above average rate. If not they might as well go with Devon Marrero and his defense. Although many people will disagree and its far from settled, I think he’s a 3B.
Melky is so up and down season to season that it’s impossible to know what you’re gonna get the following season no matter what his performance was. So if I’m the Jays, or any team for that matter, I split the difference in my offer. If “Healthy Melky” shows up for the season, he’s probably worth $14MM per season. If he’s “Perenially injured and underperforming Melky” he’s worth maybe $4MM per season and that’s pushing it for his veteran status.
Therefore, I think he’s getting paid close to what he deserves. But he won’t settle for anything less than a fat raise so I’d offer him 3 years/$30MM, period. Because either you’ll overpay him or underpay him, but rarely will you pay him for what he’s truly worth.
He’s been pretty good 3 of the last 4 years offensively with the exception of 2013 when he was playing with that messy back condition. Still with his shaky defense, PED history and the fact that he is entering his thirties I’d be gun shy to give him too much.