In his latest Insider-only blog, ESPN’s Buster Olney runs down a list of pending free agents that are candidates to receive qualifying offers. Olney spoke with several executives from around the league and is of the mind that James Shields, Max Scherzer, Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Russell Martin, Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Ervin Santana, David Robertson and Hanley Ramirez will receive qualifying offers, which should fall between $15MM and $15.5MM.
Here are a few more notes from Olney’s piece…
- The Giants intend to give Sandoval a QO with the assumption that he will reject the offer and test the open market. San Francisco appears willing to offer him just three years, says Olney, and even going to four years might be too much of a stretch. Such a commitment seems much too light to land Sandoval, who, at 28 years old, will be one of the youngest free agents on the market.
- It looks like the Dodgers and Ramirez could be moving in separate directions, as rival evaluators anticipate the team will extend a qualifying offer with the expectation that Ramirez signs elsewhere.
- The value of Martin on a one-year deal, even north of $15MM, makes a QO for the Pirates “an easy call,” one rival GM said to Olney. Some may wonder whether or not Francisco Liriano is a QO candidate, but executives polled by Olney feel that his injury history and lack of innings present too much risk for the Bucs to extend such an offer. I’m inclined to agree; while Martin is a lock to turn down the QO, Liriano would have more hesitancy, and a $15MM salary would represent nearly 21 percent of the Pirates’ Opening Day payroll from 2014.
- Some evaluators think that Cruz will again find himself with a more limited market than he expects due to his age, 2013 PED suspension and the fact that his OBP and defense are less impressive than his power totals.
- Many rival executives feel there’s simply no way that the Tigers will let Martinez get away. Olney’s right in noting that a QO is “an easy call” for V-Mart, who currently sports a hefty .333/.401/.567 with a career-high 31 homers.
- Olney also feels that a QO for Robertson is an easy call. While he notes that teams don’t pay $15MM for closers anymore, one evaluator said to him: “…with any other team, we wouldn’t be talking about this. But it’s the Yankees, and they can do it.” On a somewhat related note, Olney adds that Koji Uehara’s late-season swoon may be a blessing of sorts for the Red Sox, who can now approach him with an offer much lower than a QO would have been. I noted in yesterday’s MLBTR chat that I’d be more hesitant to give Robertson a QO, but the Yankees could certainly afford to run the risk.
If Robertson really receives a QO he should take it. 15 MM, even on a 1 year deal, is a great payday for a reliever and no one will be giving up a first round draft pick to pay Robertson 10+ MM a season.
I can think of one team off the top of my head that would give Robertson a 10+ MM a season contract and giving up a first round. That team is the is Detroit Tigers. Then they can move Nathan to a setup man role and let Soria walk. Granted he would be a highly paid one he could handle it, I think.
If there is one thing Detroit learned from Nathan it is that investing big money in a reliever is a risky and unwise decision. I don’t think they will be making that mistake again.
^ took the words directly out my mind. Thanks!
But look at Nathan’s age. That’s another you have to take into account. I think Robertson is like 27-29 and Nathan is in his late 30’s.
Relievers are an incredibly risky investment. Detroit would be smart to sign a couple of midtier guys instead of investing 8 figures into another closer. I can’t see that happening.
I can see why they wouldn’t do it. But I was honestly just giving one team that could take a chance and sign him.
He’s going to find a very small market for his services if he declines the QO. Teams that are interested could also try to trade for Papelbon instead, who doesn’t have many friends in Philly anymore.
That is what cost the Tigers the pennant last year. They went with a Benoit instead of get a real closer. He blew the save in game 2.
Jim Leyland blew that. Should have brought in Phil Coke to face Ortiz.
Dodgers probably would offer Robertson something in the 4/44 range given their bullpen is a bit of a weak link right now. They could back load it to account for the ridiculous Wilson and League contracts coming off the books after 2015.
It seems likely that he could get something like 3 years, 25 million if he doesn’t stay with the Yankees. I’d probably take that, not the one-year, 15 million, if I were him.
Robertson is likely to get 3/30-33 without much trouble given his age. Maybe more if people are still giving 4 yr deals to closers like the one R Soriano received from Washington….
If history has taught us anything, it has taught us that yes, the Yankees can afford that. But should they? Keep in mind you need to add 50% to whatever salary they pay on a new contract and put it in MLB’s pocket, because of the luxury tax.
Of course they may be gambling that he’ll sign somewhere else and they’ll get a draft pick, but few teams would give up their first round pick for a closer, and those with protected picks are unlikely to need a closer. A closer is the last piece you add to make a playoff run and if you finished with one of the worst records in baseball this year, you’re probably not going to make a playoff run next year (Red Sox possibly excluded).
“Too light” was an intentional pun in talking about Sandoval, right?
I don’t know if it makes a bit of difference with Koji Uehara. Anyone who’s paid attention knows that he got a dead arm because the Red Sox overused him. He’s not going to get a massive contract because he’s 39, but he’ll get what he deserves, from Boston or someone else.
Despite his streaky performance this year Sandoval has actually been a pretty consistent hitter in his career. A .750 to .850 OPS is respectable for a third-baseman.
I think this QO is a bit too much to pay for Martin, but with the Pirates’ need, they’ll probably offer it if they can’t extend him before then. Man, for relievers at the least, the system should work differently. Even the best is not worth $10 million because he affects so little of a season, let alone $15 million.
Martin’s .294/.408/.434 line, even though it has been inflated by his .342 BABIP, combined with his usual great defense is easily worth a QO.
Whether he is worth a QO would depend on the team.
Why should it work different for relievers? The simple solution is to not offer him one at all.
While I would agree $15mil is alot for a single player (especially for the bucs) With the bucs need at catcher its not out of the question.
Martin is having a Gold Glove year (though past week or two couple bad throws to 2nd), a Silver slugger candidate with his .295 and .409 OBP. 15mil for one more year is not completely crazy.
I would like to see a 2 year 20-25mil extension or 3 year 30-35mil laden with bonuses at most. If the Pirates cannot get that then make the QO and if he walks get another pick. Just gota find a new catcher.
VMART will be a Tiger longterm. Tigers will overpay for him.
That wouldnt be a good idea if he wants Beltran money (3 years, $45 million) not worth it, if Tigers can resign him for only 2 years, $6-$7 million per then yes, he’s no lock to continue to be an effective hitter as he continues to get older
He will get over an offer for over $50MM from the Tigers… and it would not be that much of an overpay.
He has become a switch hitting Big Papi now. He is three years younger than Ortiz.
No reason he cannot keep doing it for 3-4+ years.
I think the Tigers have to try to keep VMart pretty much no matter what. The best argument against keeping him is that he’s one of three guys they have who really shouldn’t be playing any position other than 1B or DH. The idea that replacing Fielder with Castellanos would help them defensively didn’t really pan out.
That contract level is utterly unrealistic. No idea what reality you derived that from. He’s easily going to get a 2 year offer north of $28MM and probably north of $30 or even $32MM…and likely some 2+option or even 3 year offers….
I think whether or not VMart comes back will be decided by what happens for the rest of this year. If Detroit falls apart again, he might want to play for a team with a better shot next year.
I would actually think the opposite. If they DONT win it all, he will stay to win in Detroit (with healthier Sanchez, Cabrera and Verlander, full year of Price replacing Scherzer, etc… enough of an argument that Detroit will stay competitive).
If they DO win it all, then he may move on to get max $.
They Really love him in the clubhouse (and his boy)..he’s the right guy in the right place surrounded by guys he likes on a team that need shim and he fits well into. It would be a real longshot to see him in another uniform in 2015. This year is an outlier power-wise for him, but he has the ability to slash .300/.370/480 for at least 2 more years given he shows no sign of decline whatsoever at this point.
The key question for me is what is the QO burden (losing the draft pick) worth for the acquiring team.
$5MM? $8MM? (on average)
Perhaps Steve Adams can help his readers get to a consensus number.
Too early to say, I think.
What was it last year then? It will help explain the deflation in offer values for borderline FAs.
I think it will take a few years and more data points to draw a reasonable conclusion. For now I think it suffices to say that the market value of a player carrying the draft pick burden is reduced somewhat.
Yeah I agree under the new system we have to wait and see what the players that netted those draft picks on average are worth once they hit the league or at least a large enough sample size in the minors for them to be ranked or valued.
All draft picks are a lottery. We know that already, so I don’t see the need for a special study of the players drafted as compensation. What interests me is how the teams are valuing these draft picks at the time they negotiate with QO-burdened free agents. Too few so far to draw much of a conclusion.
This very webpage does similar reviews and they seem to draw alot of interest when we look back and see how transactions pan out. It may not rattle the interest of the sabermatric crowd but many others would be interested to see what for it’s worth. Some teams trade those draft pics anyway so on the face of it you can evaluate what type of talent those trades are worth. Afterall when teams make trades they often base them on previous transactions made around the league.
What kind of talent they yield generically, sure. Chasing down any individual draft pick to whether it yielded a useful player is a more theoretical exercise,
If Pablo tests the open market and leave SF… who would the Giants use at 3rd?
I know he wants a bunch of money… I just hope the Giants give him what he wants.
That’s definitely an issue for the Giants. They can’t really afford Sandoval or any decent replacement. Headley will probably be cheaper than Sandoval. Other options are Casey McGhee or Alberto Callaspo, either of whom might share time with players like Arias or Duffy. There’s a good chance next season will be ugly at 3B for the Giants.
There’s speculation that Buster Posey may move to third, as it was his original position and it would allow him to be in the lineup daily… if that’s the case, they could be okay.
As far as platooning goes, I’m not all that concerned… many teams platoon guys and do just fine.
Third was not Posey’s original position. He played SS through his freshman year of college, when he was moved to catcher because he didn’t have enough range to make it as a pro in the infield. The last time he played any position other than C, 1B or P was 2006.
More to the point, while that speculation does exist, the only thing the Giants have ever said is that they aren’t ready to move him yet and that if he gets moved, it will be to 1B.
Seems certain Santana would accept, and possibly Hardy as well.
I agree with the notion that Liriano should not be offered a QO by any team, let alone the Pirates….that said, the Pirates’ biggest mistakes in the off season and during this season was not trading for or signing a big name pitcher. They have several nice pitchers, that’s about it. How far can they go with the likes of Jeff Locke and Vance Worley? Or a resurrected Volquez??
Have to imagine Robertson would command something like 11/12 million on the open market so really, getting him for one season, $15 million isn’t too bad. It is just one season–it wouldn’t be handcuffing the Yankees a la the Phillies and Jonathan Papelbon’s contract. Plus, I don’t think David Robertson will be making any crude gestures to the home fans any time soon.