In his latest Insider-only piece for ESPN, Buster Olney expressed doubt that the Orioles would re-sign Nelson Cruz this winter. The O’s are more likely to let Cruz go and pick up an extra draft pick (via the qualifying offer) since Cruz’s big season may have made him too expensive for Baltimore. If the team looks for a right-handed bat to replace Cruz, Olney opines that the Braves’ Evan Gattis, rumored to be a trade candidate, would be a perfect fit as the Orioles’ new designated hitter.
Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- Also from Olney, Yankees GM Brian Cashman originally passed on the idea of signing Chris Young when the team’s statistical analysts recommended that the Yankees pick up the recently-released Met. Cashman’s change of heart paid off, as Young has a whopping 1.266 OPS in his short stint (29 PA) as a Yankee and three homers, including a walkoff to beat the Rays last Thursday.
- Rookie right-hander Shane Greene’s emergence has been a boon for the Yankees’ injury-riddled rotation, and Kevin Kernan of the New York Post details the unlikely story of how Greene originally caught the eyes of team scouts. Greene, a 15th-round draft pick in 2009, has a 3.56 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 2.92 K/BB rate over 68 1/3 IP this season.
- Dustin Pedroia’s contract extension was considered to be very team-friendly when it was signed last year, but ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes wonders if the Red Sox were too quick to extend Pedroia given how recurring injuries caused his performance to drop off in 2014. The Sox already had Pedroia locked up through 2014 (with a team option for 2015) on a prior contract before tearing that deal up for his new extension that runs through the 2021 season.
- The Rays’ planned payroll cut might not be all that drastic, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, as the team still plans to contend next season. Any payroll saved “will be the product of trades and tough choices.” For instance, Topkin thinks Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Joyce could be trade candidates, as both players will get raises in arbitration this winter.
- Earlier today, MLBTR’s Steve Adams compiled more news from around the AL East.
Cruz’s “big season” was more of a big month
To argue against this point, his March/April projects to 40+ hrs, 150 RBI. His May was out of this world, and his September, through 14 days, is going great (.339/4/13).
Most of Cruz’s value comes from his home run power, he hit exactly 1/3 of his home runs so far in May. For a hitter like Cruz there is a big difference between a 40 HR season and a 27 HR season. May makes all the difference
We can’t throw out certain months though. He was streaky, and writers are making his season out to be way more than it is, but that is all part of his stat line. He is the same hitter he was last year.
Yes, and last year’s production had an asterisk to it which kept teams away from him. His production outside of Texas also threw up some red flags.
He was on pace for a career high in homers last year before his suspension, being the same hitter or not, last year and this years production will likely guarantee him at least $45M/3 when the market for hitting is really weak.
Is he the same hitter he was last year, though?? Let’s see, last year he had ONE month of mendoza line hitting. This year he had THREE CONSECUTIVE months of mendoza line hitting. Sure Cruz has always been a streaky hitter, but a 3 month bad streak?? His season is solely propped up by the month of May.
Proof? Nelson Cruz hit 27 HRs last year and missed the last 2 months and NOBODY wanted to give up draft pick compensation for him. Now, he’s turned in the EXACT same level of production and we’re talking draft pick compensation for him.
Most players have one big month just like most teams have one big month that puts them in the “contender” status. To throw out a month because of you nitpicking is ridiculous. Cruz should’ve had a career high in homers last year before his suspension, so the arguement is kinda irrelevant as he showed the world that last years production was no fluke this year.
To put it in perspective, Edwin Encarnacion had one good month this season(May), does that make him less valuable because of it? No, he’s still a proven 40 home run guy when healthy. People have ups and downs during a season and Cruz is no different.
RBI’s are pretty irrelevant.
Meh. Three good three bad months. Pretty par for the course for power hitters who aren’t superstars.
I’m not sure ANY stat is “whopping” after 29 plate appearances.
For Chris Young it is
.480/.552/1.600 (2.152 OPS) 9 HR, 15 RBI – Josh Hamilton, May 7-12, 2012
I’m pretty sure that qualifies as “WHOPPING”.
*edit – exactly 29 plate appearances
Can you imagine the outrage over the Lester situation if Pedroia wasn’t locked up?
Pedroia would have to completely fall apart for that contract to ever really be a burden. He makes the team money.
Always loved Pedroia. My grandfather and I watch many Yankee games together (easy when you live next door) and he’s a big Pedroia fan himself. We call him the Jeter of the Red Sox.
Yankee fans will dislike me if I say this, but he’s probably my favorite non-Yankee player in the entire league.
That’s pretty much how he’s regarded on the Sox, though it’ll be a bigger deal when Papi retires and he becomes the longest tenured player on the team. I think they’ll make him the captain.
Given the various hand injuries I’m a little concerned on him going forward but the Red Sox HAD to do the contract with him after everything that went wrong. It absolutely goes beyond the field with him as it should. I’m hoping he gets a little pop back after surgery but hey us Sox fans are spoiled. He has been so good for this team. If he can ride out the contract with an average bat, Plus D and above average base running I’ll be happy.
Pedroia didn’t have the best season last and this season but he will earn the most at $16M just once throughout his contract. Pedey’s last 4 seasons averaged at 6.1 WAR while earning appx $9.1M in AVG and Cano’s last 4 seasons at 7 WAR at $15.75M. and comparing their rest of the contracts, you dare to say Sox were too quick to extend Pedey????
Please dont sign any name pitchers in the offseason to bury Greene into bullpen oblivion. McCarthy should be resigned and maybe another innings eater for insurance…the main focus if anything should be offense. Pitching has been pretty fine all year. Francesa supposibly said the Yankees are going after Tulo this offseason..
If somehow Tulo is available and traded in the offseason, I doubt it’s to the Yankees unless the Rockies asked the Yankees to eat up the entire contract (along with a player or 2 probably)
They would eat his whole contract in any trade anyway. The back end of his contract has lower salaries and the guaranteed years end at age 35 unlike typical Yankee albatross contracts like Arod, Texiera and Sabathia.
Doesn’t matter if the backend of his contract has lower salaries. His salary towards the team payroll is the AAV so it would be the same every year regardless whether he makes $25 million or $5 million
Also, you’re incorrect, A-Rod’s salary has decreased every year since the 6th year, so like Tulo, his contract value decreases in the latter years. But again, it’s all irrelevant.
A-Rod has milestone bonuses which is why his salary decreases. If he hits 6 home runs next year he hits the next one for another $6 million.
Ede’s comment reminds us how writers often have the benefit of monday-morning quarterbacking. Pedroia is a terrific player having an injury-plagued year. Maybe his best days are behind him, but I think it’s a little early to be making those judgements.
Can we stop talking about Cruz’s big year. He raised his ops 24 points compared to last year. That is hardly enough to offset the fact that he is now a year older. He isn’t suddenly going to get $60MM/4
He was vastly undervalued last off-season, IMO, mostly because of the PED’s. Right handed power is incredibly rare these days. 60/4 seems like a stretch, but someone (maybe even the O’s) will pay him 45/3 or something.
He certainly held his own, but some of the writers out there are trying to talk like he is suddenly this insane hitter. Essentially he was the same hitter he was last year, 24 points is pretty much within the normal year to year deviation, that it’s not like he suddenly changed his approach and is something better. He is 34 years old. Losing an extra year of his prime on a long term contract is a big deal. The extra year on him also means more likely to be a dh now.
Maybe the Red Sox should insist on a share of the profit from Pedroia’s Premium Salsa.
I still see the Pedroia contract as a steal. He’ll be fine. Not his best year but I’m not worried about him.
Don’t think the Pedroia contract is bad. Look what Cano got, Pedroia got only 2 fewer years, but less than half the money. He had a rough year, but he still played decent defense, and still put up a 99 wrc+. He has been really durable for all the injuries he has had. If he continues like he did this year it may not be good, but he has been well above average, give him another few years.
Preemptive contract extensions often don’t make sense to me because teams seem to end up giving their players about what they would project to cost as free agents anyway (Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, and Homer Bailey come to mind)–so why jump the gun? You never know what might happen with injuries or other reasons for decline. But preemptive extensions make sense when the player is paid less than market value, which Pedroia is. It’s mutually beneficial: The Red Sox get to keep their beloved second baseman at a discount, while Pedroia gets the security of knowing that injuries won’t affect his future income.
Pedroia’s injuries are not chronic or wear-and-tear. He’ll be fine, and he’ll more than earn that contract. The Red Sox front office did the right thing by locking up their homegrown franchise cornerstone (especially since they have literally no other long-term major contracts).
No knees or anything but hand injuries can be a drag. It does worry me a bit but the contract is still beyond reasonable given everything from who he is to when he signed it and what he has done for “the nation.”
Agreed. At the very least, you know that more than anyone, he’ll never stop TRYING to earn that contract, which is something.
I guess my point was that because the hand injury was caused by a traumatic injury and not a chronic physical ailment, the contract can’t be condemned. Those type of injuries can happen to anyone. On the other hand, if they signed a guy who had bad knees or was one-dimensional or overweight, the contract would have been ill-advised. So you can’t blame a team for locking up a guy who ended up hurting his hand on a slide.
What does it even matter if Pedroia doesn’t “earn” his contract. This isn’t some small market team that can’t afford the hit. And besides, he’ll likely come close to earning it on defense alone.
If he can stay healthy. He’s been getting more hurt then Ellsbury his former teammate recently.
When the Sox signed Pedroia, they had no idea that they would have enough quality second basemen to populate the entire outfield (Holt, Betts, and Castillo) and one more on the way (Coyle).
The Red Sox in particular–and baseball in general–rely on old-time franchise players to sustain their myth; the Ted WIlliamses and Carl Yastremskis and Johnny Peskys. In this day of free agency, those kinds of franchise players are harder to come by, and there’s more risk involved in obtaining them. Once upon a time, they occurred naturally, by virtue of performing well enough to keep playing and avoiding a trade. Now, teams have to take risks at free agency to make those players happen. Dustin Pedroia was one of those risks. Time will tell if it works out. But now and then a team has to gamble on a special player, and Pedroia is certainly one of those special players.