Now that the 2014 regular season has come to an end, here’s the order for the first round of the 2015 MLB Draft. The order is determined in reverse order of regular season record, with ties being broken by record from the previous season. Teams are also compensated for failing to sign first-round picks from previous years. In 2015, the only team to receive an extra pick in the first 30 is Houston, which will get the No. 2 overall pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken this year.
Much about the draft order remains to be determined, given the impact that qualifying offers will have on the ultimate order. This year, the first 11 picks are protected, meaning that teams cannot lose those picks for signing free agents who have been extended qualifying offers. That means the Cubs, Phillies and Reds have protected picks, while the Marlins, Padres and Rays do not.
1. Diamondbacks
2. Astros (for failure to sign 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken)
3. Rockies
4. Rangers
5. Astros
6. Twins
7. Red Sox
8. White Sox
9. Cubs
10. Phillies
11. Reds
12. Marlins
13. Padres
14. Rays
15. Mets
16. Braves
17. Brewers
18. Blue Jays
19. Yankees
20. Indians
21. Mariners
22. Giants
23. Pirates
24. Athletics
25. Royals
26. Tigers
27. Cardinals
28. Dodgers
29. Orioles
30. Nationals
31. Angels
Here’s Compensation Round A, which follows the first round. Unlike regular draft picks, Compensation Round picks can be traded.
32. Astros (via Marlins)
33. Rockies
34. Cardinals
35. Brewers
36. Padres
37. Indians
The Reds, Red Sox (via the Athletics), Mariners, Twins, Orioles and Diamondbacks, respectively, own picks in Comp Round B, which will come after the second round.
could astros lose two picks if nix wins the grievance?
Nix won’t win the grievance.
they’d lose this years (no. 5), but not the comp pick for not signing Aiken.
Similar to how the Yankees held onto their pick a couple of seasons ago for not signing Gerrit Cole despite signing Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia that off-season. Cole, of course, re-entered the draft process and was taken no. 1 overall by the Pirates.
As a Phillies fan, this season felt so much worse than last – and yet, we ended up with the same record, and 3 picks worse than last year. That makes this season even more awful.
🙁
Phillies GM really wasted so many opportunities to flip some of their starters for some prospects of the future.
Ehh, I really think his options were much more limited than people like to pretend. I’d say the Phils had 3 good trade chips (Hamels, Utley, and Byrd), 1 okay trade chip (Papelbon), 2 average – at the time – chips (Roberto Hernandez and AJ Burnett), and a handful of guys who would net you little in return (Kendrick, Bastardo, Mayberry, Nieves).
Just looking at the “good” chips, Hamels had to bring you a monster return (not the 3 top prospect RAJ allegedly asked for – but probably 2 organizational top 3 prospect and another in the 5-10 range, with 2 of those 3 being at least at AA). Utley was completely dependent on whether or not he wanted to be traded, so I’m never going to fault a GM for not trading a guy with 10-5 rights. Byrd, IMO, should have netted them a top 5 organizational prospect or 2 in the 5-10 range (depending on the system). Inferring from the rumor that came out, Seattle offered Luiz Gohara and Tyler Pike (2 young pitchers in the midst of really bad years) for Byrd. My take – that’s not a deal you can pull the trigger on.
If you think the Phillies are going to get that package for Hamels is absurd. Depending on the system obviously. I can’t any team given up 3 top 10 prospects for Hamels. I mean granted it did happen with James Shields. But with the way that prospects are so highly touted now I see them get more Major League talent or unproven young kids like the Red Sox did with the John Lackey trade.
The key word Phillyfan425 said is organizational top prospects. That means that it would likely be 2 prospects anywhere from 1-53 (The prospects list I am looking at has the Phillies having the 54th best prospect and that is their 3rd best prospect) and then the 1 prospect that would have to be better than the Phillies number 8 prospect (nothing special) as to be a top 10 organizational prospect with 2 prospects being better than him also coming in the deal he would need to be decent. That would almost be to little for Hamels in my opinion…. although I am just explaining what Phillyfan said…. and it’s not crazy.
I understood exactly what he said. And I clarified what I meant with depending on the organization. For example, I can’t see the Dodgers giving up 2 of Urias, Pedersen, and Seager. Or the Red sox who are in need of a top of the rotation SP giving up 2 of Owens, Swihart, and Cecchini. Or the Twins giving up 2 of Buxton, Sano, Stewart. Yes I know they wouldn’t realistically be trade partners. But I could see the Yankees giving up 2 of Servino, Sanchez or Jagielo. Also I think they could get something like the Red Sox got for Lackey. With a proven veteran and maybe a couple of 23 and 24 years old who have shown brilliance in the League. If they needed to go that route. But we are all open to give our opinions. I was saying I don’t agree with his opinion depending on where Hamels is going to go. If he goes to the Yankees, I agree with Phillyfan, but if he is going to the Red Sox I don’t agree with what he is saying. That’s all.
I usually go organizational because people get bent out of shape when I go the other way (and because not everyone has a top 25 prospect). But, essentially, for Hamels, I’d look for 2 prospects in the top 100, whose rankings combined for about 90 (i.e. the 20th and 70th overall prospects). And I’d also look for a guy in an organization’s top 10, who is outside the top 100.
If we are getting for Hamels what the Sox got for Lackey, I’d be very discouraged. Mainly because Hamels was a top 10 pitcher in baseball this year (2nd in rWAR in NL) and because he is locked up for a longer time, while being in the mid-end of his prime (if you think a prime for pitchers is 5 years from 27-32). Lackey was a 35 year old having a good (not great) year.
Obviously they should get more than a struggling OF and a decent pitcher. What I was getting at was I think that they will Veterans back in return. A better example would be the Lester deal. A high mid veteran and maybe a couple of prospects.
It’s the worst feeling, thinking you have the worst team in the MLB and when you look at the draft order you are not even close 🙁
I knew we weren’t the worst team, but when I started standing-watching about 10 days ago, I was shocked that we were fighting to stay in the bottom 10.
Is because it’s another year of poor play. Phillies need to do some changes, and RAJ seems content to have his team stuck in the middle ground. Not trading your valuable pieces for long term pieces, and not being good enough to contend.
I don’t even know if it’s because it’s *another* year. Or the lack of changes. Just, fundamentally, they looked worse on the field this year than last year – and some how didn’t end up with a worse record.
Not to be too snarky, but another season of rewarding the Astros for a deliberately poor product on the field, coupled with a little gamesmanship in negotiation. Subsidized by the league. Houston, in a substantial market, was 26th in home attendance, and 28th in road attendance. Apparently, they play by the rules. And eventually they will see results by putting together a good young team from all those high draft picks and hard bargaining.
It seems like you’re hating just because you know the Astros will be one of the best teams in the league in a few years?
Nope. I said the Astros played by the rules. But the rules encourage tanking and taking the money instead of trying to support the truly smaller market teams. I’d rather see subsidies and favorable picks go to a place like Tampa, where they make a real effort to contend, then to a Houston.
You do remember Tampa tanked for like 10 years before they got the pieces to field a competitive team
Tampa was a late expansion team. They started with a very difficult roster, their then owner tried to spend money to improve it, that didn’t work, and then they went with the kids. Not really comparable to Houston, who went to the playoffs six times in nine years ending in 2005, and as late as 2008 won 86 games. They got $70M for moving to the AL in 2011.
They’ve been unbearably bad for longer than it takes to rebuild. Early picks does not make a champ.
Astros are on a road to nowhere. Their high picks are generally not turning out and they “progressed” to a 90 loss season this year mostly on the strength of not-likely-to-be-repeated performances by two journeymen starters and near perfect health. I’d literally rather take any other team in baseball in a bet on winning the WS in the next five years.
I strongly disagree. They’re churning out starters even before getting to the higher-end talent – McHugh and Keuchel, despite not being everyday names, have had a good year. Springer hit 20 homers in half a year of baseball. Altuve hit .340. Appel held his own at AA. Correa still looks like a monster. It’s hard to knock what they’ve done so far.
In all fairness to the Astros, they’ve had 3 bad, meddling owners in a row. McMullen, McLane and now Crane don’t hire good general managers and allow them to make smart business decisions. Since 2005, when the Astros were in the World Series, the owners have done everything to field the cheapest competitive team possible and it shows. Crane takes advantage of Astros fans’ loyalty and has driven many away. It’s pretty sad and MLB turns a blind eye because they made the deal to approve Crane in exchange for moving to the AL West.
I’m as unhappy with how Crane has operated (and caved to Bud) as much as any Astros fan, but I’m very happy with how the farm system is going, and most of the credit has to go to Luhnow.
And frankly, he’s done a fantastic job using the wrinkles of the CBA (which was agreed between owners and players) to stock our farm system.
Yes, some mistakes were made this year, but they got a solid draft haul and already have a good base to move forward soon. I’d like to see a goal to get close to .500 next season, and realistically we’re a starter, position player or two and a few better pen arms away from that.
Journeyman starters? Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are journeyman starters? Have you seen either of them pitch? While neither is Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez, they also aren’t fodder who simply enjoyed ridiculous luck start-in and start-out.
Houston’s 92-loss season was probably about right, considering they had but the two quality starters after dealing Cosart to Miami, a terrible bullpen and about 3.5 legit big leaguers in their lineup at a given time.
If you’re saying you’d bet on any other team in next 5 years over Houston, well, don’t go out on a limb or anything.
This has to be the highest the Yankees have picked in recent years, yes?
You are correct. Worst in almost 20 years.
Until they sign a Free Agent for 100+ million…
Hanley Ramirez most likely.
I have them for Scherzer
Honestly Hanley wouldn’t surprise me. They need hitting, they don’t have enough runs to win the games when their top pitchers pitch anyways.
They got Pineda and Tanaka at the top,
I would not be surprised if they signed both. They need the hitting, but they also need pitching. Pineda’s health can’t be counted on, and Tanaka seems one bad pitch away from TJ (or he could never need it).
I’d be shocked if they sign both; they wanted to avoid the luxury tax, from what I understand.
Is basically not possible. Arod coming back adds $27.5MM to luxury tax, Jeter, Kuroda, Ichiro are basically the only players they dropping.
I tend to agree…they are likely to make a run at Scherzer but it will be between the Yanks and Angels…..
Cubs
Yes, they too are buyers and definitely have the $$…..also, St. Louis could be a suitor but they may need to shed some payroll first
They were pretty darn bad. Not easy to be a Yankee fan this year. Reminded me of the early 90’s.
“32. Marlins”
I thought this pick went to the Astros in the Jarred Cosart trade?
#32 behind to the Astros
*belongs
So who’s going #1?
Its not like Rodon and the top three (although Aiken is back in), but I would say Matuella, Bickford and Aiken will be top three probably followed by Mike’s son Daz Cameron.
How strong is the draft class for next year? This is one of few bright spots a Reds fan can have considering the dark year we had. It would be depressing to have such a high slot in a weak draft class.
There’s an article on Fangraphs that says the class is shallow but it’s also early.
Always changes though. Someone could put together a great spring and easily jump up the charts.
At the top, it’s better than this years. but it starts to thin out pretty quickly after that.
The playoff teams for each league had the 10 best records, but the four best teams not in the playoffs are all in the AL.
I’m just glad the lowly Cardinals, with their franchise’s history of mediocrity, get a compensation pick.
I know…
Hi Theo nice to see you on MLBTR.
Major league baseballs second smallest market. That’s who the picks are for. Only Cincinnati is smaller.
Why would you punish them for being one of the best run, smartest teams in sports with great fans that support their team.
Because your assertion about baseball’s second smallest market is completely and utterly wrong.
Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are smaller primary media markets. In addition, St. Louis has at least six other top 60 Nielsen markets where they are in primary distribution. By the time you add up all their affiliate markets, they have one of the top 10 media footprints in the league.
The fact that MLB takes this view of market size here while blacking out Cards games to fans from Western Oklahoma across to Alabama and north up to the IL/WI border because that territory is part of the Cards’ “home market” is beyond absurd.
I’m talking the cities population. I was wrong at being the second smallest. I did not realize they past the city of Pittsburgh by 15,000. St. Louis has a population of 318,416. So once again, why should a city that is third smallest in population be punished?
Kudos at being able to market their team better than most. Also, besides the Yankees, they have the most World Series titles in baseball history. Quite a feat for a city slightly bigger than Aurora Illinois.
Because the competitive balance picks are supposed to equalize for market inequality. Their market (largely by virtue of what the country’s population and MLB’s footprint looked like 60 years ago and not a particularly genius marketing effort) is not remotely close to one of the 10 smallest.
Also, looking at the city’s population rather than the county or the metro area is a great way of implying a reality that does not exist.
This idea of a getting a ‘make-up’ pick the following year if you don’t sign your pick from year before doesn’t seem right. If you can’t sign’em, tough luck. Either make a better offer or make a better pick….but Teams should not have that fall-back position as insurance. If you can’t sign a top first round pick due to financial constraints one year, you darn sure aren’t going to sign 2 the top picks the next year.
I think the Astros could sign each of their 2 first round picks this year depending on who they draft. For instance this past season Aiken pretty much just got pissed at the Astros for how they dealt with the process. But next year they could draft 2 kids who actually want to play with the Astros. Not being able to sign a prospect last year has nothing to do with being able to sign draft picks next season unless the team tries to draft that same player again in that next draft. But that will not happen with the Astros and Brady Aiken.
Not giving a compensation pick for failure to sign a player would give way too much leverage to the players.
I disagree….teams are not deciding on whether to sign a top 10 pick or not based on the ability to have another top 10 pick the following year. In fact, I’d bet most teams really don’t want that much dollar commitment and liability in one draft. But to your point, maybe instead of regaining a top pick the following year, the re-pick slot moves down 10 picks. If they don’t sign a player at that pick in the next year, they get another compensation pick the following year that moves down another 10 slots. At some point, a club who does not sign a first round pick has to suffer the consequences of that decision.
A White Sox win yesterday would have dropped them to tenth. Hopefully this should be the last year in a while we get a high pick. Let’s shoot for like 27th next year shall we?
Can’t wait to see who the Yankees pick… In the 2nd round because they’ll give up that 1st round one to sign someone everyone’s gonna complain about in 3 years.
What do giants get for draft pick for losing Sandoval?