Here’s the latest news out of Fenway Park…
- Ben Cherington said the Red Sox “haven’t gotten to” the stage of exploring a contract extension for closer Koji Uehara, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, though they’ll broach the topic in October. “He’s a guy who has done a great job for us, certainly one of the guys that we would love to have here. We’ll address that after the season,” Cherington said. As for Uehara, he is “happy and honored they feel that way…Boston has been good for me, but they are one of 30 teams I would consider.” As Abraham notes, there has been speculation that the Sox could extend a one-year qualifying offer to Uehara since they (unlike many teams) can afford spending approximately $15MM on a one-year deal for a closer.
- Jackie Bradley Jr.’s offensive struggles have gotten to the point that WEEI.com’s Alex Speier is wondering about his long-term future with the Sox. While Bradley hit in the minors and was a heralded prospect entering the season, Speier finds little historical evidence to suggest that Bradley will be able to recover from his poor start and eventually become a decent hitter at the Major League level.
- If the Marlins are unable to extend Giancarlo Stanton and decide to trade the slugger, John Tomase of the Boston Herald feels “no team is better positioned” than the Red Sox to procure Stanton’s services given the number of top-flight prospects in Boston’s farm system. The Sox could add a Major League piece to the mix as well in Yoenis Cespedes, though he’d have limited value to Miami given that he can opt out of his contract after the 2015 season.
- Also from Tomase, the Red Sox are “realistic about their chances” of bringing Jon Lester back in free agency. Though Boston certainly intends to pursue Lester, the team’s reluctance to commit too much money to over-30 pitchers could see the Sox get outbid by another suitor.
Hopefully things don’t work out so Koji can come back to the Orioles
I feel that if they can’t come to terms on a new contract then the Sox will give him a QO and unlike Drew he will accept the offer. So I think there is a 99% chance he comes back to the Red Sox next year.
Seems like Boston will need to find most of its upgrades from its prospects. They’ll have to make many shrewd trades and hope for some very good luck (prospects turning out like JBJ is the norm, not the exception) in order to contend in the near future. Not the greatest way to build a contender, especially given their resources.
Boston’s front office has shown to be the shrewdest, so I wouldn’t doubt them. But this whole 30-and-out thing is not the best idea in sports. The Dodgers have said they won’t go over 37 in a long-term deal, and I like that stance. I’m sure Lester would sign with Boston if they go to his age 37 year.
Ask the Padres about those overrated Red Sox Prospects lol. Be very careful Marlins when trading for Red Sox overrated prospects.
As I recall Anthony Rizzo was part of that deal. I’m willing to bet the Padres wouldn’t mind having him back.
You got me Victoria lol.
I don’t know… that Cashner guy they got back is pretty good!
All of Cashner’s success has come at Petco. He is a 4.00 ERA guy on the road, just look at his splits. As far as the Gonzo for Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes trade goes, the Padres did just fine. No Casey Kelly did not work out, but Rizzo is a STUD in the realm of Gonzo and Reymond Fuentes may still turn into a useful player given his plate discipline and defense. Choosing Yonder Alonso over Rizzo was just dumb and so was the Rizzo for Cashner trade. The Padres got better talent in the Gonzalez deal than they did in the Latos deal.
I still like Cashner. He had the stuff and the demeanor of an ace. We will see next season.
Cashner is the prototype as far as size and stuff. He should have a career. Barring the unforeseen, Rizzo is going to be an All-Star caliber first baseman the next seven or eight years anyway. Power, Low strikeouts, walks, ok defense at first. Under contract at reasonable rates for the next five years with two reasonable option years. I’ll take him.
Kelly is still only 24. Can’t write him off yet…he’s been injured.
It’s just hard to know how much is there. He’s barely pitched since 2011.
Which would you prefer if you were the Padres and last in baseball in runs scored (by a large margin), a pitcher who has yielded .7 WAR for his 5 year career or a hitter who has yielded 7.9 WAR over 4 years, 3.2 of it this year? One of the players clearly broke through this year and the other has spent the last two months on the DL with a shoulder injury.
I’ll always take pitching, especially if that guy has become their ace.
Rizzo is on the path to becoming a very good player, but you gotta go with the upside pitcher. Yes, Rizzo broke through this year. Is it so impossible to think that Cashner will break through soon?
I don’t think they mind doing that deal.
It is not impossible to believe Cashner will break through soon. But if you always take pitching over hitting, you have just built the San Diego Padres. Can you see where that would be a less than desirable outcome?
You’re assuming. Also, you’re going extreme.
I’m not saying field a team full of pitchers. But if the choice is between a good 1B, and a front end starter, I’m taking the starter. So are most people that work for or watch baseball.
Would you trade Kershaw for Miguel Cabrera? Most people wouldn’t, because the odds of developing a front end starter are way lower than a 1B.
They’re just valued higher.
But Cashner is older than Rizzo and has yet to break out. If you asked the Padres in light of the offensive struggles they have had this year if they would undo that trade what do you think they’d say? Cashner may never be a number one starter but Rizzo is presently a very good offensive and defensive player. Are you going to take actualized talent over potential? Every time. And no one alive would trade Kershaw for Miggy. Trout for Kershaw would certainly be worth a ton of consideration though. Start with what your team needs. The Padres need offense terribly. I bet they would be willing to undo that deal.
Then we’ll just agree to disagree.
Like I said, an ace is a lot harder to find than a good 1B. I’m sure the Padres knew Rizzo can be a breakout 1B, just as Cashner can be a breakout ace. It’s a risk they, and many others, would be willing to take, because… and I don’t mean to beat a dead horse… but an ace is a lot harder to find than a good 1B.
You can sign a decent 1B in FA. No way Padres can afford to sign a top of rotation pitcher.
Rizzo is the better player, right now, but I’m sure the Padres are happy with their acquisition.
Cashner looks pretty good when he can stay healthy, which is like one whole month every year.
Don’t forget, the Marlins got Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez from the Red Sox for Beckett and Lowell.
I hope Lester returns to the Sox next year. If he ends up taking a huge contract to play for another team, I guess his “willing to take a hometown discount” was a joke.
We could be talking about a $100 million discrepancy between the Sox and the highest bigger. Even Wally the Green Monster would pack his bags in that case.
I’m sure Brian Cashman is waiting to offer a ridiculous contract to Lester. We know the Sox won’t get into a bidding war with the Yankees so it will be up to Lester.
Ultimatums as blame deflectors? Let me try…
I’m sure Brian Cashman is waiting to offer a ridiculous contract to Lester. We know Lester will go where the most money is being offered, so it will be up to the Sox to match it.
I agree with what you’ve said, but I think that if the Cubs/Red Sox offer similar, but slightly lesser, contracts as the Yankees, Lester would probably take them. I don’t expect Boston to do it, but Theo will want his ace to headline the Cubs rotation. I expect them to make a substantial offer.
Yeah, that makes sense. Familiarity and being comfortable is important, but they can be outbought. Depends on the dollar difference in offers.
Personally, I think he goes to the Cubbies. Theo will make a competitive offer, and he has familiarity/trust with him.
On the baseball side, Cubs are set up to contend very soon. All they’re missing is pitching. It’s a perfect match, and an easy sell to Lester.
Cubs are definitely a destination. Theo, rising stars and extending his life as an ace in the NL will all count. That team could be good next year if they sign the right pieces and the kids are even reasonable successes.
I’m a Sox fan and I won’t put an ounce of blame on Lester if, and likely when, he decides to go to the Cubs or Yankees. We traded him away.
A good fan right there.
Lester worked hard and performed well for the Red Sox. He was traded for value to another team and brought them even more. I don’t think he needs some “pre-free agent” trashing if he doesn’t come back.
Sox have ton of money freed up. They just don’t spend too wisely. there’s a significant difference.
The Sox traded Lester. There’s no secret “we’ll trade you, but come back for less money” arrangement. He’s gone and if he chooses not to come back, it’s hard to blame him.
I agree. A traded player owes no loyalty to the team who traded him–he was deemed an asset that could be converted into another asset. If taking a little less but staying in his comfort zone is a good thing for Lester, then he will consider a lower offer from the Red Sox. But he’d be foolish to take a lot less in $ and years. This is a business, and sentiment only comes into it with a very few players. I doubt Lester is one of them.
Everybody is just looking out for themselves. The Sox traded him and got back pieces to contend next year.
Lester will (most likely, as in most cases) go where the most money is being offered.
You cannot blame the player for looking out for his best interest, and his family’s best interest… while not blaming the team who did not pony up the money he is worth on the open market.
Oh, and if the Sox don’t think he’s worth what he is being offered, and therefore do not make a competitive offer… well, then they’re just looking out for their best interest.
I don’t think anyone is to blame in any case. The team has their own agenda, and the player certainly has no obligation to give hometown discounts, especially when there is a big discrepancy.
Yes, that was exactly my point.
“I understand that to stay here, you’re not going to get a free-agent deal. You’re not going to do it. You can’t. It’s not possible. You’re bidding against one team. I understand you’re going to take a discount to stay. Do I want to do that? Absolutely.
“But just like they want it to be fair for them, I want it to be fair for me and my family.”
Looks like he was willing to, but what was proposed wasn’t a fair deal to him and/or his family.
“Taking a hometown discount” in this market means accepting a contract for what you’re worth instead of taking an overpay from another team. The Red Sox weren’t willing to pay him what he was worth. Don’t blame him for that. The Red Sox are one of the biggest markets, and they were being ridiculous. I’ll be interested to see what happens next year when their rotation is Buchholtz and a bunch of rookies.
I’m not blaming Lester for anything. However, don’t be quick to throw the Red Sox under the bus here. The word is that they offered the low & ridiculous offer of 77 million and Lester’s people never made a counter offer. If that’s is in fact what happened, I blame Lester’s agent/agents for not telling the Red Sox what they were looking for and letting things die.
If JBJ doesn’t start hitting by next Spring Training and Shane Victorino is healthy going into next season, they would still have a starting outfield, consisting of Yoenis Cespedes, Victorino, and Allen Craig. That is not too bad. If JBJ can turn things around, the Red Sox should talk to the Mets about trading one of those three. Victorino for Bartolo Colon, Cespedes for David Wright, or Craig for Daniel Murphy would seem to make a lot of sense for both teams. The Red Sox could also throw Will Middlebrooks, who would probably be a good platoon partner for Lucas Duda, into any of those deals as a sweetener.
Why would the Mets give up their franchise player for one year of Cespedes?
Does not compute.
Their “franchise” player cannot hit in their ballpark. There is no guarantee that he will hit better in Fenway, but I think that it is likely unless his hitting problems have been more physical than mental. Trading him releases the Mets from his massive contract, which the cheapskate Wilpons would probably love to do at this point.
Conversely, Cespedes has proven that he can perform and produce in a pitcher’s park, making it seem likely that CitiField won’t faze him. Either way, the Mets can either extend him after trading him or use the year that they have with him to see if they want to try to lock him up long-term.
If that logic is not sound, would trading Cespedes for Murphy make more sense? Would the Mets have to throw in another player, like Colon, to make that deal work?
Where would Murphy play? And why would they throw in Colon to get one year of an outfielder?
Isn’t his original position third base? Am I wrong in thinking that the Red Sox could benefit from an upgrade at that position over Will Middlebrooks? Does Cespedes and Middlebrooks for Colon, Murphy, and Montero make sense?
Colon for Victorino actually isn’t a terrible idea. Both on 1 year deals, fills needs for both teams. The Mets would obviously want more than that, though.
Great if you can just explain to me why the Red Sox would want a 300 lb pitcher in his age 42 season. I’m all ears.
Because he can still pitch very well and it gives their young pitchers another year to mature. If I had to guess, the Red Sox are not going to resign Lester, but will sign someone like James Shields or Justin Masterson (or both) to pitch alongside Buchholz and Kelly.
They can fill out the rest of the rotation with young pitchers or they could bring in an effective and moderately priced veteran like Colon to take one of the remaining rotation spots for one year. Colon is also $3MM cheaper than Victorino, who has been injury-prone this season and throughout his career.
If the Red Sox do not think that they can count on JBJ next season, then it probably makes more sense to keep Victorino and go young with their pitching, but if they want to continue throwing him out there with the hope that he develops, trading Victorino isn’t a terrible idea and a starting pitcher like Colon with his own set of question marks is probably the best that they can hope to get in return for him.
There are many, many pitchers available on the free agent market that wouldn’t be remotely as risky as a 42 year old 300 lb pitcher. Just no. There is no reason to take that kind of risk. If Cherington even considered it he should be fired.
I have nothing against trading Vitorino but doing it for someone as old as Colon makes absolutely no sense.
Which free agent pitcher will you be able to sign for 1 year and -$3MM, which is what trading Victorino for Colon would essentially cost the Red Sox? Any free agent pitcher who has pitched as well as Colon has this season will require at least a 3 year deal worth $39-$45MM, which is additional money that the Red Sox would be spending next season and locking up a rotation spot for the next 3 (or more) seasons.
The year that Colon would give the Red Sox in 2015 could open the door for one of their younger starters in 2016, rather than forcing him to wait until 2018. Trading Victorino for Colon saves money and provides the Red Sox starting rotation with depth and maturity.
It is not as if I am saying that the Red Sox should trade for Colon instead of resigning Lester or signing Masterson and/or Shields (they should probably sign both if they cannot resign Lester), but Colon could slot in as a #4 or #5 starter behind either/both of them, Buchholz, and Kelly and also be a mentor for one or more of the team’s younger pitchers who will eventually replace him.
Why would the Red Sox take that sort of chance? You have also not pointed out why the Mets would be interested in Victorino. He’s a player who is a huge injury risk. I would also be very very surprised if Colon is worth anywhere near 10 million dollars next season. It is almost unprecedented for a player that age with his body type to pitch well at age 42. And they don’t have financial constraint that would require them to take that sort of risk.
Again I’m all for trading Victorino, but why not trade him for a few marginal prospects instead of an over the hill pitcher who could break down at any moment? Why bother delaying the youth? Most of them are 24 this year and will be 25 next year. There is no reasonable reason to trade for Colon. None. You’re going to pay a guy 10 million dollars to be a number 4 or 5 guy when you could get better production out of a rookie at 500,000? Sure trade Victorino, but not for Colon. Not if he was the last pitcher available on the planet.
Victorino is better than the marginal prospects that the Mets would get for Colon and Colon is better than the marginal prospects that the Red Sox would get for Victorino. Colon has been a productive major league pitcher this season and a better than 50/50 bet to continue to be one for one more season, which is all that the Red Sox would be risking.
If anything, Victorino would be more of a risk than Colon and is a more expensive one as well, but he is still a better bet than Chris Young was this season. I don’t know who else the Mets will be able to sign or trade for to play LF for them next season, but for one season, I think that trading Colon for Victorino makes more sense than throwing a lot of money at Nelson Cruz or trading top prospects for Carlos Gonzalez.
He’ll give you innings and keep you in games. Wouldn’t hurt to add some stability to a rotation in flux. Not saying it’s the best option, but with a crowded outfield Colon might have more value in Boston than Shane.
Or he could just have nothing left to give. There is no reason in the world to trade Vitorino for Colon. Trade him if you want but not for Colon. Has there been more than five or six pitchers in this history of baseball who had descent age 42 seasons? There is absolutely no reason in the world the red sox should even entertain that idea. They hqve no shortage od internal pitching options and Colon would be a risk not even remotely worth taking.
Colon pitched for the Sox in 2008. If I am not mistaken, he left the team on his own and returned to the Dominican. He has already burned his bridge back to Boston. The Sox will go with much younger pitching while keeping Shane in the mix at CF/RF next year if healthy.
For Colon? I cannot imagine the Red Sox getting more than someone like Colon for Victorino and vice versa. If anything, the Mets would probably benefit more from having Victorino than the Red Sox would benefit from having Colon.
David Wright is a much better player and hitter than Cespedes. Since Cespedes has entered the league in 2012, Wright has a 134 wRC+ and 135 OPS+, while Cespedes has a 117 wRC+ and 118 OPS+.
Even looking at their home/road splits shows that Wright is the better hitter. The last three seasons, Wright’s wRC+ at home have been 139, 153 and 119, while Cespedes wRC+ at home have been 163, 120 and 120. They are about a wash at home, but the big difference is that David Wright can also hit on the road. The last 3 seasons for Wright 143, 157, 89 and Cespedes is 112, 84, 107.
Once you include defense and baserunning and there really isn’t any comparison between the two players. Since 2012, Wright has 15.4 fWAR and 15.5 rWAR, while Cespedes has accumulated 7.7 fWAR and 8.8 rWAR.
David Wright is having a down year. Just as early as last year, he had a 155 wRC+. 141 year before that. In fact, he’s averaged 133 wRC+ for his career at Citi, and 134 overall for his career, including Shea + Citi. He will be okay.
You don’t always have to hit the long ball to be productive, or be considered a good hitter. That is an archaic way of thinking. There are many other ways to contribute offensively. Not to mention what he brings defensively.
if the WIlpons were cheapskates, they would not have given him that “massive contract” to begin with. Not to mention, signed Grandy last year. Or Colon for 2 years. This is not the Marlins.
The Madoff mess is in the rear view mirror. They are willing to spend, when needed. Sandly Alderson knows they are not ready to compete. It would make no sense to go hard in free agency in the past few seasons for the Mets. When they are ready or close to ready to compete, they will spend to upgrade their team and compete. They will be okay.
Rangers have the prospects to get Stanton. Basically anyone but Alfaro and Darvish are untouchable. Joey Gallo (#1 in Rangers system), Luke Jackson (#3 in Rangers system), Luis Sardinas (#76 prospect by Prospectus pre-2014), and Ryan Rua?
And do you think Sox farm can’t beat that??
I don’t know the Sox system. If the Marlins were looking for pitching, I would think the Sox could probably put together a better offer, since Jackson has a ceiling of a solid #2. But in terms of hitters, I think the Rangers could put together a better package.
edit: And considering Gallo is the only player being compared to Stanton in terms of Power, I think they’d be inclined to want Gallo.
Sox have pretty good hitters with pretty good defense that will interest more than Gallo. Betts and Swihart will interest Marlins more than Gallo. Trust me.
Swihart plays a “prime” position too
And there’s reason why Sox farm is ranked at least top 5 every farm ranking report.
Gallo is better than any current Sox prospect not counting Betts. But I think Alfaro would have to also be included in order for the Rangers to get Stanton.
I agree Gallo has the better power than all of Sox farm but there’s a reason why he’s ranked as low as he is ranked even though he hit 78 HRs for past 2 yrs. If he’s hitting .270 in the minors and strikes out more than 1/3 of ABs even before reaching AAA, you need to be concerned.
He’s the 7th ranked prospect in the game. And he’s 20 years old. He’s not ready for the pros yet. Mike Trout’s K rate has skyrocketed this year, but is anyone worried?
Dude… you can’t just compare Gallo to Trout. Gallo only has power. No decent batting average, no speed, no defense.
You do realize that Mike Trout’s skyrocketing K% is 24.3% in MLB, while Gallo’s K% is 40.5% right now in AA right? Gallo has yet to post a K% under 30% for the year while in the minors.
For comparison sake, the four MLB players who currently have K% above 30% this year, C. Davis, C. Carter, B. Upton and A. Dunn, none of them ever had a MiLB season with a K% above 30%. Dunn and Upton never had a MiLB season above 24%. Gallo might have huge power, but he is going to struggle to put it to use against MLB pitching without some major adjustments.
Sorry to say this but Gallo is the next Adam Dunn. and Alfaro would have to be the centerpiece in that trade
And Dunn has hit how many career home runs?
And you think Marlins will trade Stanton for next Adam Dunn?? wow
Gallo’s floor is somewhere between Mark Reynolds (with better walk #’s) and Adam Dunn. With power in decline across the board in baseball, you don’t think the Marlins would be interested?
No. Mark Reynold and Adam Dunn. just speechless how you get these ideas.
Here are the MiLB K% and BB% for Dunn, Reynolds and Gallo and I’ve also included Dunn’s MLB K% and BB%.
Dunn 18.2 K%, 15.5 BB%
Reynolds 23.3 K%, 9.8 BB%
Gallo 33.8 K%, 14.6 BB%
Dunn 28.5 K%, 15.9 BB% (MLB)
Gallo has worse K% and BB% than Dunn has had in the majors. He has a lot of work to do to ever be as good as Adam Dunn and the chances he reaches that potential are not very high.
I remember reading earlier that if Texas brought up Gallo for the end of the year, he would likely strike out somewhere around 45-50% of the time. So yeah, he needs to basically cut his K rate in half in the minors before then.
Adam dunn has 457 HRs in 14 season. in 10 of those season he didn’t hit over .250.
I was gonna say the same thing about Gallo.
I don’t know much about Gallo, but he’s going to be cheap and Stanton is not. I don’t trade for Stanton unless I can work out an extension. The Rangers have a lot of holes and should keep Gallo and spend the money on filling in their roster. The Rangers have too much money invested in Fielder right now to spend on Stanton. Choo, Harrison and Andrus start getting expensive in the next two years also. Beltre’s contract is good thru next year and then you need Gallo to step in at 3rd.
If the Marlins were to trade Stanton, you have to think that an offer of Betts, Swihart, Ranaudo, and Webster would top any other offers. Only a handful of teams have the combination of need and financial flexibility to make a run at Stanton, and I don’t see of those teams making a better offer than the Sox (even without including Bogaerts and Owens)
Plenty of teams have better prospects to offer than all four of those guys, not to mention young major league talent that has already performed at the MLB level, which would probably trump any unproven prospects. It would have to start (start) with Owens, Bogaerts and Swihart, and add on from there, perhaps with the Sox taking on some contracts. That would be a pretty competitive offer, although even then it would certainly not be ‘untoppable’.
I disagree. I’m talking about teams that can realistically afford him and are willing and able to give up the pieces necessary to do so. That package would include the #13, #27, #63, and #81 prospects in baseball according to MLB, including probably the best 2nd base and catching prospects in the minor leagues. All four of those guys are essentially major league ready, too.
The only package I can think of that would probably beat that one would be if the Cubs offered Russell, Almora, Soler, and Edwards. But I’m not sure that they can afford Stanton long-term, or that they’d be willing to give up that much farm depth.
I assume they’d start with Castro and add from there.
You’re probably right. They would probably prefer to move Russell though, now that Castro is hitting his stride again. Also, Castro might be a little pricey for Miami’s liking… even though his contract is about as team-friendly as it gets.
Why is it the Marlins responsibility to pick a team that can afford to sign Stanton long term? They should only trade Stanton for the best package. It is the job of the team who traded for Stanton to sign him long term
It’s not. But I doubt any team would empty the farm for a guy that they can’t afford to resign.
I can see the Dodgers offering a package that starts with Julio Urias (BA Midseason #13) and Joc Pederson (#18), then filling it out with Zach Lee, Chris Anderson, and whoever else Miami wants not named Corey Seager.
No. The last thing the dodgers need is another OF. We are fine with Kemp/Pederson/whoever.
I’d be okay with an outfield of Stanton, Puig, and Kemp.
Puig’s ability to play CF makes Pederson expendable. Kemp/Puig/Stanton would be ideal. I don’t know how you can rationalize not acquiring the premier power hitter in baseball, especially one that would be coming home to LA.
I’m sure if Stanton would sign an extension with Seattle, he would already be playing RF at Safeco. They have the pieces to add him, but like David Price he wouldn’t stay long term. Seattle will try for Lester and Shields.
The Cubs beg to differ, Mr. Tomase.