The Marlins have designated right-hander Jacob Turner for assignment, the club announced. Lefty Brian Flynn has been recalled to take his spot on the active roster.
Needless to say, this comes as something of a surprise. Turner, 23, was at one point considered by some to be one of the game’s twenty best prospects. And while he has not produced good bottom-line results this year (5.97 ERA), Turner has been victimized by a .368 BABIP. And he has thrown just 264 total big league innings over parts of the last four seasons.
Notably, he has improved significantly this year in several respects: his 6.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 are improvements over last year, even though he’s allowed more earned runs, and he has even bumped up his groundball rate to 51.3%. Indeed, Turner owns a 4.01 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, and 3.98 SIERA on the season — all career-low marks, and all seemingly in line with a player of his age and former repute. His fastball velocity is on the rise.
Turner’s situation will certainly warrant a close eye. He will, of course, need to pass through waivers to be dealt. One wonders whether Miami perhaps already has its eye on some sort of trade with a high waiver-priority club. (The Rockies, followed by the Cubs, Phillies, and Diamondbacks, currently lead the NL “reverse standings.”) It is hard to imagine the club simply letting him go: not only was Turner the key piece in the deal that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Tigers two years ago (which also included Flynn), but he came into the season with just 1.033 years of service to his credit and so will not even be arb-eligible until 2016.
It is worth noting that Turner is already out of options and is playing on a MLB contract, which he signed after being chosen ninth overall in the 2009 draft. That deal comes with a $1MM option for next year. It gave Turner the right to opt out of that salary and file for arbitration if eligible after this season, but he won’t have enough service time to qualify. Nevertheless, the lack of an available option does limit his market somewhat, as a team would need to be willing to use both a 40-man and an active roster spot (or try to slip him through outright waivers at an opportune moment).
The fact is, players like Turner have value, even if they have not lived up to expectations. He reached the big leagues at a young age, and it seems that several teams would be willing to hold an active roster spot for him to make a run at harnessing his potential (while reaping the benefits of his low salary and team control). Just last year, the Astros shipped a very similar player in Jordan Lyles — former top prospect, decent peripherals, poor results — to the Rockies (along with Brandon Barnes) to acquire two full seasons of a solid, reasonably affordable MLB center fielder in Dexter Fowler.
On the other hand, Turner is something of an extraneous part for Miami, which has other advanced young arms in its system. (One contributing factor to that assessment, however, is that the team recently added Jarred Cosart via trade.) The club seems to be willing to give up at least some future value to improve its chances in 2014 — the Fish sit six and a half back in the NL East — and it could be that the assessment was already made that he would not warrant a roster spot for the rest of the way or over the offseason. (Of course, if that truly were the case, it would have seemed more likely for Turner to be moved a few days ago.)
JMO 4
Hey Walt, you awake? Claim him. BP are at the very least
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Wow, this is a big deal.
Turner was a big piece of the Sanchez/Infante deal.
I didn’t think you gave up on someone like this so soon.
Jake13
Turner was the Sanchez-Infante trade, he was expected to be an ace
elscorchot
saw that coming. too bad he had zero trade value. now he will just be picked up by another team on a minor league deal.
Jake13
I would love to get him back in the Tigers organization, Jeff Jones fixed Scherzer and Porcello, maybe he can re-fix Jacob Turner
elscorchot
yeah, they helped sanchez out too
Kevin6CD
That would be great considering the horrific lack of depth and young MLB-ready guys at SP in the organization.
Jake13
Robbie Ray, and Drew VerHagen, but I agree, he would add some nice depth to the team and could figure something out in AAA
Kevin6CD
I don’t really have confidence in either of those two. Figure if you add Turner, I’d rather roll the dice with three than two.
barry2
I hope so too but I doubt he will make to the Tigers.
Jake13
Wow, this guy was supposed to be a Justin Verlander clone years back, does this mean any team can claim him now?
twins33
Believe it works the same way as usual. NL teams get the first crack and then if no one claims him there then the AL teams get the next crack.
NomarGarciaparra
I thought usual claim order was in reverse order of standings?
ukJaysfan
NL teams in reverse order of standings, then AL teams in reverse order of standings is the procedure I believe.
Jeff Todd
Yes.
twins33
Yes. I assumed that was known, which is why I didn’t mention it.
Turner is in the NL so he’ll go through NL teams first. If no one wants him in the NL, then it goes the same way in the AL.
Patrick OKennedy
No guys. Outright waivers are different, if that’s what they’re using here. Only special waivers in Aug and Sept go through two leagues separately. For 10 months, waivers go from worst record to best. Prior season’s record is used until May 1st each year.
Chris Lattier
Cubs make a deal please….
DingLayGorFe
I was thinking the same thing. Don’t worry Cubs like to buy low.
Cosmo3
As long as the Rockies don’t claim him, Cubs should be a no brainer. He’s a perfect fit, and they can still keep him at the big league level for now.
Glad they didn’t trade Garza for him a few years back.
bigbadjohnny
It was Soriano or Marmol back then …Garza name never came up.
Brv Rocks
Wow. I know he has been struggling but that is surprising. I would love to see the Braves take a chance on him. He’s just the type of pitcher that Roger McDowell can work his magic on.
JMO 4
Jocketty, CLAIM HIM or make a move in order to acquire him. Bryan Price and Ted Power can fix him.
Phillies_Aces35
Any rebuilding team (i.e. the Phillies, Cubs, Astros, etc) should take a chance on an arm like his.
flyerzfan12
don’t tell Ruben the Phillies are rebuilding
Joe 52
There is no way that he is still in the Marlins organization after the 10 days are up.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
I would even pay his full salary, I would think he’s worth the gamble.
WashingtonRancors
Someone will surely put in a claim. Few organizations would DFA Turner despite his recent struggles but Miami has enviable pitching depth in the minors.
Ruben Diaz
I Hope Theo claim him
karkat
Rockies are the only ones who can get in the way of that
SwingtimeInTheRockies
It would be smart for the Rox to claim Turner. So – no chance.
Dynasty22
This is a talent that you probably have to trade for to get.
TRAPstar
Turner will not reach a playoff team. Cubs or Mets will take a flier on this kid. He is talented
karkat
So, question. Let’s say the Cubs claim him and they can’t work out a deal. Since he’s DFA’d, they can’t just “pull him back,” right? What happens then?
First Bleed
I could be wrong but since he hasn’t reached six years of service, he wouldn’t be on ‘revocable waivers’ – just normal waivers. Meaning he can be traded to any team but if they don’t reach an agreement he can decline the assignment, making him a minor league free agent. Then he can sign with any team and still be controlled.
karkat
I forget how DFAs work in August, but I was pretty sure the whole waiver thing had to happen for a trade still?
DippityDoo
I believe you’re allowed to “pull him back” once. If you place a player on waivers a second time he can’t be recalled. Only I’m unclear what the specific impact of that is, if a team claims the second time and no deal gets worked out then what happens? I’ve been reading Jayson Starks know your waiver rules and its giving me more questions.
karkat
I know how typical August trade waivers work, but I don’t know in what way the DFA complicates things, which is what I was asking about.
DippityDoo
Oh, but I thought DFA was just a precursor to being placed on waivers, which must happen for a player to be traded, and the same rules we pay attention to in August for trades are in effect year round on DFA players?
Mark 22
DFA isn’t revocable. Also, if he somehow does clear waivers, he would be sent to AAA.
jalcorn427
A DFA is irrevocable. This is not the August trade waiver scenario. He will certainly be leaving Miami for little (if they can find a trade taker and he clears waivers) or nothing in return.
Jeff Todd
This is what I believe would happen:
1) the Marlins can (if they haven’t already) put him on revocable waivers while he is in DFA limbo — and they must do that if they wish to deal him
2) as usual, they would be able to trade him to either the claiming team with the highest priority or any team if he clears (which seems unlikely)
3) they can still pull him back at that point, but the clock will keep ticking on the DFA and they will ultimately need to put him on outright waivers — which, I believe, have the same priority order at this point, so the only risk a claiming team would take by not consummating a deal would be that they rise in the standings and drop in priority … if it reaches that point, the Marlins would simply lose him if he is claimed
Jeff Todd
All this leads me to wonder (wonder/speculate/make up in my own mind/this is all fantasy) if perhaps they already have something worked out. Miami is 6.5 games out of the division, 5.5 from the Wild Card, and could still be looking to pick up a veteran arm.
If a deal was lined up and they thought the claim would work out — certain Rockies pitcher comes to mind as a hypothetical possibility — then perhaps the DFA is just a procedural mechanism to clear a roster spot while everything is pulled together.
This is all imaginary, not a rumor.
Michael A. Gould
Thanks for clearing that up
TRAPstar
I have a gut feeling that the Marlins want to trade him to an AL Team but thought he wouldn’t get through waivers, so now since he is off the 40 man he won’t need to clear waivers?
Patrick OKennedy
He has to clear waivers to be traded after the deadline. He has to clear waivers to be reassigned, either to the minors (outright) or to be released, at any time of year.
twins33
I think this would be a smart claim by any team. Doesn’t hurt to try. Hope the Twins try, but I have a feeling he won’t make it out of the NL.
TRAPstar
especially by any teams not in the hunt. But he won’t make it out of the NL
Adrian Garcia
Colletti really needs to get on this one
TRAPstar
Scott Van Slyke for Jacob Turner…just an idea to help fix Dodgers glut of OF’s
Adrian Garcia
that doesn’t do anything actually
Adrian Garcia
considering Ethier and Crawford absolutely can’t hit lefties
Shane Flannagan 2
I will be disappointed if the Cubs don’t consider trying to claim Turner. If I remember right they were targeting him in a trade that was around Matt Garza. No risk, high reward claim if they can get him
frontdeskmike
This is another example of how prospects can be over-valued.
dc21892
Prime example why teams need to stop protecting their prospects so much. Most of these guys involved in big trades never pan out, yet teams refuse to move them for proven major leaguers.
norah
A lot of Seattle Mariners fans will probably disagree. Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, Adam Jones, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, even Jose Cruz Jr. And David Ortiz if you go back far enough.
TheRealRyan 2
It looks like they kept or traded for all of the wrong prospects. Here are other top 100 prospects for the Mariners in that time frame; Montero, Hultzen, Ackley, Smoak, Moore, Halman, Triunfel, Aumont, Clement, Nageotte, Blackley, Lopez, Snelling, Anderson, Perez and Christianson.
Ray Ray 4
The jury is still out on some of those guys and you kind of have to excuse Halman since he was murdered and all.
East Coast Bias
There are countless “prime examples” on both sides of the argument. Sorry, you don’t win on one example alone.
timpa
There was someone who ranked players based on where they landed on BA’s list.
If they never achieved 1.50 or better WAR in a season they were considered a bust.
If they achieved a 1.50 to 2.49 WAR in a season it was a success and if they achieved a 2.50 WAR or better in a season they were considered a major success.
Players who hit #1 to #10 status on BA had a 45.0% bust rate, a 55% success rate(and a 35.1% major success rate).
Players who hit #11 to #20 status on BA had a 50.0% bust rate, a 50.0% success rate(and a 30.7% major success rate).
Once you get outside the top-20 it drops drastically. Players in the #21 to #30 had a 70.0% bust rate, a 30.0% success rate(and a 16.4% major success rate)
Pitchers were much more likely to bust, have a lower success and major success rate than position players.
Pitchers in the top-20 had a 60% bust rate, while position players in the top-20 had a 40% bust rate. The overall bust rate for pitchers outside the top-20 was 75-80%.
I believe this was done off of a decade of BA top-100 lists as of maybe 2007 or 2008.
TheRealRyan 2
It is a great article that I feel should almost be mandatory reading for anyone on this site. The work was done by Scott McKinney for royals review and goes to show you just how fickle prospects really are.
Michael A. Gould
Welcome to the Rangers!
Anthony Turreto
An NL team will claim him before the AL can even sniff him
Michael A. Gould
This will be interesting to see what happens. He’ll go on waivers, and a team will claim him. But can Miami revoke the waivers if he’s claimed? If the claim is revoked, is he outright released?
Can someone try to clear this up?
jb226 2
Edit: Nevermind, explained below.
Ryan Johansen
Cubs.
TheBigNice
I don’t see how the Rockies could pass on this guy.
Frittoman626
With the rash of injuries I wouldn’t be opposed for the Yankees to claim him if he gets to them on the waiver wire. He’s still young and maybe Rothchild could find something that’ll help. At worst he could be totally bomb and the Yankees could replace him when Phelps or Pineda (doubt it) return.
Ray Ray 4
Over 20 teams (including the entire NL and the Red Sox) have to pass on Turner for the Yankees to even have a chance at claiming him. Not going to happen.
SwingtimeInTheRockies
Right? But you know, Rockies.
calicub
Don’t forget the league from which a player is placed on waivers (NL here), gets the priority as well.
disgruntledreader
He’s not on revocable waivers, which still have league priority. He has been designated for assignment, which means there is no league priority.
Right Jeff?
twins33
I’m pretty sure it’s always league priority. It’s never a free far all of whoever has the worst record no matter the league.
Could be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen league not mattering.
Ray Ray 4
The Rockies have first crack at him. This is a franchise that had a guy with a nearly 8.00 ERA in AAA start three games for the big league club this season. If they don’t claim him, heads need to roll.
TRAPstar
LaTroy Hawkins…just speculation
Ray Ray 4
Either him or Jorge de la Rosa.
Matt Beam
or Brett Anderson
Jeff Todd
Even if he had no future utility, they could probably justify adding him just to provide a warm body the rest of the way. Under the circumstances, I think they absolutely should claim him. Nice opportunity for Colorado.
SwingtimeInTheRockies
From your lips to our FO’s (tin) ear!
timpa
I just don’t get why Miami didn’t do this a week ago. Surely you could have gotten more for him dealing with 29 other teams than being limited to whichever team claims him on the waiver wire.
John Cate
Because they’re the Marlins. Since when do the Marlins do anything that makes sense?
bigbadjohnny
If the Rockies take a pass, the Cubs will jump all over on this guy…….lets hope the Rockies front office people is on Pikes Peak hike and don’t notice Turner.
SwingtimeInTheRockies
Our FO does not have to be out of the office to be out to lunch.
philly_435
Can the phillies PLEASE get on this
jeffm
They’ve got 3rd or 4th dibs at him, not sure how it works with a tie record.
JJ 3
the marlins should stop trading with Detroit lol
BYOP
I’m guessing the Rockies will miss the boat and he’ll end up winning a ring with the Cubs…
SwingtimeInTheRockies
Winning a ring? Hmmm… With the Cubs? My bet is that you’re right about the Rox blowing it, though.
jesse heiman
Dodgers take a chance
Oshadogan
I’m seeing Ryan McMahon or Trevor Story to Fish, to take the place of Colin Moran on Marlins farm..
SwingtimeInTheRockies
My guess is that it wouldn’t take that good of a prospect but you never can tell.
Oshadogan
Turner still have the reputation of a ex-top prospect, you overpaid for that..
SwingtimeInTheRockies
Had Miami tried to trade Turner in July, you’re almost certainly correct. Now that he’s DFA’d, I’m not so sure.