Here’s the latest out of Fenway:
- Boston has fielded interest in Jon Lester from the Dodgers, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. The sides have not made much headway, however. Los Angeles has long been said to be chasing another starter, and appear to have the kind of top-end prospects that would greatly entice the Sox (if they are willing to part with them).
- The Royals have watched outfielder Jonny Gomes all week as they look for a right-handed hitting corner outfield bat, says Edes. Meanwhile, as Edes reports in another piece, the Pirates are among the clubs taking a close look at the Boston pen. As he notes, and as our trade market pieces (righties; lefties) reflect, Boston has many potentially available arms.
- The Red Sox are taking a pragmatic approach at the deadline, principal owner John Henry tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. “Deals are always driven by value,” said Henry. “The value of this season is quickly declining in comparison to next year and beyond.” Henry said that the club’s poor offense has been “painfully evident,” noting that, “even running the bases, as measured by external stat geeks, we’ve been the worst in the league.” Though GM Ben Cherington advised Henry before the All-Star break that the club was still likely the best in the division, in spite of its poor record, the front office began preparing then for the possibility of hitting the trade deadline without a realistic shot at contention.
- Mike Carp explained (and confirmed) his reported request for a trade, as WEEI.com’s Alex Speier reports. Though his batting line has been poor, his playing time has also been rather sporadic. “It hasn’t been a shocker. I’ve been very blatant where I stand from the get-go about it,” Carp explained. “I need the opportunity to play. I need the opportunity to get some at-bats. There really hasn’t been an attempt made here and I just feel like there would be a better situation at this point.”
- In assessing whether to deal Lester, the Red Sox should take heed of the Yankees’ decision not to trade Robinson Cano last year, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The situations bear many similarities, Sherman, explains, and it would be a mistake for Boston to let one of its homegrown core players leave with only a compensatory draft pick to show for it. Lester’s could bring back quite a nice haul, leading Sherman to suggest the club ought to deal him unless it is determined to re-sign or extend him. In a similar vein, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opined yesterday that dealing Lester makes eminent sense if the team is not committed to bringing him back.
- Trading Lester, I would suggest, could make it somewhat more palatable to later sign him to a market-rate contract. If he could bring back a legitimate prospect haul that has some promise of near-term big league impact, it would not only increase the value of paying for a top-end arm but would offset to some extent the expected negative value of the later years of a hypothetical Lester contract. In some ways, that could be the best scenario for all involved, and Lester has said he is amenable to re-signing if he is dealt. It is certainly true that such an option sometimes appears more achievable than it may truly be, and anything can happen once a team moves a player off its roster. But perhaps that is something to keep an eye on in Lester’s case.
karkat
That last bullet point is a good one. Negotiating with Lester for market value really won’t seem as frustrating, as a Sox fan, if that cost could be seen to include a prospect haul.
basemonkey
It’s not just the raw talent they’d get, it’s also that if that talent rises to the majors, it’s savings at the league minimum at other positions. So it’s a cost that gets absorbed by Lester’s presence.
So, the math would be like for every league minimum Lester trade guy that occupies a position, depending on that position, the, say, 6-10M they would have paid another to play it is saved. Count that towards Lester’s contract, and it adds up quickly. So, the net of Lester annual salary might end up being more like 10-15M/YR depending on how many players reach.
Bob Bunker
Very true. For example, if Lester nets a Joc Pederson type OF that is near major league ready it fills one of the biggest holes on the team for nxt year at a min salary instead of maybe 10 million through FA giving you more money to sign Lester with
basemonkey
That said, I just don’t think you can get anything really good after Lester said what he did. I mean—he could have said so privately, internally, and have a working understanding, as legally permissable. But, once you go public, that he’s inclined to resign with the Sox, it dampens the prospect haul the Red Sox would get.
No team is going to give up their future in 2-4 top prospects, without at least a decent shot at resigning the stud starting pitcher they traded for. If it’s truly just a 2-month stint, with no chance for more, then the package coming back will reflect that. Otherwise that’s the kind of deal that sinks franchises for a while.
frogbogg
Exactly. Cost controlled players are used calculate WAR value by Fangraphs. If the Sox are getting major contribution from the traded for players, then it offsets the cost of the final years of the contract.
ray1
It will be interesting to see what Boston gets in return for Lester.
Wek
Who would give up a decent prospect haul for Lester knowing that he is a 2 months rental and there is a very good chance he will resign with Boston in the offseason?
frogbogg
I’d venture a team that is going to make the playoffs and wants a player with a career 2.11 ERA in the post season.
TheRealRyan 2
Lot of teams will. We just saw the Giants give up a LHP who was a top 100 prospect entering the season and a power armed RP for 2 months of a not good and expensive Jake Peavy.
One and half years of a not as good Jeff Samardzija and 2 months of Jason Hammel returned a top 5 prospect, a recent 1st round pick who is holding his own as a 19 yo in A+, and a back end MLB SP with 5 years of control remaining.
A couple of months of Jon Lester would still return a very nice haul.
basemonkey
Trading for a declining late career Peavy isn’t the same as trading for a peak years Lester.
Since Lester said publicly what he did, I don’t think the Sox can reasonably expect the prototypical 3-4 top prospect haul for an Ace pitcher. I think they’re likely only to get one premium talent plus productive pieces.
DarthMurph
Why would there be a very good chance he would resign with Boston?
EarlyMorningBoxscore
He’s stated how he loves Boston, wants to stay there, and that he would be willing to re-sign with them even if he is traded. Of course, who knows if he actually believes this or was just saying it to look good for the media.
DarthMurph
Every person says that. I do believe Lester genuinely loves it in Boston, but if he’s traded, it’s a longshot at best that he would return.
Stonehands
If they make a competitive offer, they will get him back, but if Lucchino keeps trying to squeeze Lester dry then he is gone
Wek
Why would it be a longshot? Lester seems to enjoy playing for the Red Sox and in Boston so if Lucchino and Henry are willing to pay near market value for Lester, who has said he is wiling to give them hometown discount, Lester will be a Red Sox.
DarthMurph
Things that have never happened before are longshots. No big money player has ever returned to a team via free agency that traded him two months prior.
jb226 2
I wonder if there is an extra danger in hoping a traded player would return when that player has only played for your team.
I believe Lester truly is happy in Boston, likes it there, etc. But at the same time it’s been the only thing he has known. If he goes to another team, even for two months, and it turns out he fits in, makes new friends, adjusts more easily than he expected, likes things about the new team and front office, etc, does that make him go “huh, maybe the experience in Boston wasn’t so unique” and open his mind further to leaving?
NOLASoxFan
If the Sox trade Lester, there is zero chance he returns as a free agent. The Yankees will give him an extra $40-50 million just to make sure he’s not on the Red Sox.
TheRealRyan 2
If he gets traded, I would be very surprised if he returns to Boston as well. I think the Cubs end up making a very strong push for him too.
basemonkey
It’s nice for the Sox that Lester seems inclined to resign Boston, but doesn’t that hurt the haul they’d get for him? If a team is trading a haul of young talent for him, they’re going to do it with at least a decent chance of extending him. Otherwise, why bother? Is it literally just for two months?
Ricky Martin 2
Its a world series win
basemonkey
I guess I just mean, once a team gives up a player, anything can happen..even more if he wins a World Series with them.
What if Lester goes to, say, Dodgers, has an incredible run in a pitchers park, and gets offered a 200M deal? The Dodgers are one of the few teams that could outbid a megamarket like Boston. Suddenly what he says today about wanting to resign with Boston won’t have the same ring then in November.
dc21892
I want Lester to remain with Boston, but if they get an offer that builds toward the future you have to do it. As good as Lester has been this year, he’s only getting older and will command the most money of his career in declining years.
Derpy
In my opinion, if you don’t have an extension finished by the end of June, you trade the player.
DarthMurph
If I were Boston, I’d offer Lester the max I’d offer him in the offseason and trade him if he says no. Then you either get him or you get to say you tried plus a nice prospect haul. If Lester gets traded, he isn’t coming back.
Ricky Martin 2
I don’t really believe that at all. Lester is a stand up guy. It would certainly cost more but I trust him.
DarthMurph
What don’t you believe?
frogbogg
How do you trade a player that Is no longer under contract in the off season?
DarthMurph
You don’t. You offer it to him now. I used a little thing called the future tense.
frogbogg
Never mind. Gotcha.
Red Socks
FO works out their price they are willing to pay for Lester in free agency, say it’s a 5year $125mil deal, offer it to him now and trade him if he says no, pretty simple
Paul Shailor
he means hed offer him what hed offer in the offseason and if he says no then trade him. Meaning now, but looking ahead as to what they would offer him.
bobbleheadguru
Very smart idea. I completely agree. I am baffled by this negotiation. Lester really wants to stay. Why try to nickel and dime him? It is almost as if they are trying to push him away on purpose.
When Lester gets to free agency, especially if he is traded, Detroit (if they lose Scherzer), New York and either Los Angeles team will have enough dollars to overcome the “hometown discount”.
tigerfan1968
First see if they get a decent offer for him. Jays come to mind. Daniel Norris and another minor league bat. Price is not going anywhere and the Jays have a shot with Lester.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Royals should be looking at Marlon Byrd, not Gomes.
Also, they need to look at if they can make a legitimate run at the playoffs.
I think they can, but they always seem to sputter at the wrong time.
DarthMurph
They can’t afford Byrd.
Ron Loreski
Why not?
DarthMurph
Because they don’t have the money.
Michael 22
Ben Cherington still insisting that the Red Sox are the best team in their division is maybe the funniest thing I’ve read in weeks.
Luc Saldist
Prospect Haul? For Lester, you’re dreaming. He is a 2 month rental and MLB teams know it. Low minor prospects with upside is what they will get.
Stonehands
Peavy was a clear 2 month rental, overpaid and pretty bad, the sox got 1 good pitching prospect and a bullpen piece for him…Lester, yeah a rental, but an ace rental at that, would command at least 2 young pieces that will make a difference at the ML level in the next calender year
soxxxxx
Just stop. Career 2.11 era in the playoffs, in the middle of his prime. Two top prospects minimum. He could help a team win a World Series, someone will bite.
Dr. Balloons
Is this your first trade deadline? Teams give up quality prospects for rentals quite frequently when they believe the player gives them a legit shot at a championship.
M.Kit
especially someone like Lester given his strong postseason track record
Eric D.
Except Lester who is a top 5 SP this year, and has been highly successful in the playoffs.
Luc Saldist
By the way he is a Yankee in 2015….Book it!
tigerfan1968
The Jays farm is loaded with good arms. Sanchez and Stroman are out of the question but Daniel Norris is pretty good and they have lots of good bats they could give the Red Sox one of them. There will be a lot of upset Jays fans if they do not make a legitimate try for Lester. There will not be an offer that good from any other team. AA are you reading this.
Stonehands
I doubt the Jays make a move for Lester. They won’t overpay Boston and that is what it will most likely take for an inter-division deal like this, on top of the fact that Norris isn’t enough, and all of the interesting bats they have are several years away. I really don’t see much of a match because the Sox need OF bats, although Norris is a really nice get
Jeff Hill
You are talking about a division rival and if a trade were to happen it would be one of either Stroman and Sanchez plus Norris and maybe a mid level prospect. And also the Sox don’t really need arms they need a power hitting corner outfielder IE a Joc Pederson, or Oscar Tavares type player. Between the Dodgers trade and drafting the Sox are flush when it comes to hometown pitching. IMO they have the most depth when it comes to young pitching. They have Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, Workman, Ball, De La Rosa. Plus some others that I could be forgetting.