Here’s the latest from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who provides several interesting trade market updates:
- The Dodgers recently inquired about Phillies starter Cole Hamels, and were asked for a return that included all of Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias. Los Angeles indicated it had no interest in a deal with that framework, but Philadelphia has not move yet from that asking price. The Phils are telling clubs that it wants three top-tier youngsters and another mid-level prospect in return for Hamels.
- Nightengale suggests that the Phillies might, however, consider a lesser return in a deal that would include a mix of Hamels along with several of the club’s less-attractive long-term commitments. Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon would figure to be involved in such a scenario, Nightengale notes, which might free the Phillies to be a big player in next year’s free agent market.
- Team sources indicated that the club has not yet had discussions of that kind of trade, however, and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer opines (Twitter links) that the team will not accept a more modest return on Hamels simply to move other contracts. The team wants three or four top prospects and would not pay any of Hamels’ future obligations, he adds.
- As for the Dodgers, a deal involving Matt Kemp seems inevitable, given the disagreement between club and player on his role. But it remains to be seen whether he is deal this summer or over the offseason. (It is worth noting, of course, that Kemp would be a hypothetical August trade piece given his huge contract.)
- The Red Sox are asking for two high-end prospects in return for Lester, executives who are involved in talks tell Nightengale. A hypothetical return for him would not rise to the level of what the Rays could get for their top lefty, David Price, the sources say. Price not only has an additional year of control, but would come with a much more promising window for extension talks and could at least allow a new team to recoup some value through a qualifying offer.
- The Rays face a tough decision on Price: they would face serious internal repercussions for moving him at this point, but are tantalized by the possibilities of a return. Nightengales suggests that Tampa has reason to believe it could pry Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, and a 2015 first-round compensation pick from the Cardinals in a swap involving Price.
Dynasty22
Oh Ruben Amaro…
maxp
Nightengale needs to double check his sources. Using Hamels as a tool to clear Howard or Papelbon’s salary is absolute insanity for a team that just signed a ginormous TV deal and doesn’t need to get rid of money. They need prospects. Period.
frogbogg
No way this can be right…. all those players Amaro is asking for……… They are all under 35.
George Bell 6
Its a good time to be a seller given the asking prices
vtadave
Crazy. There are very, very few players who I would deal Urias, Seager, AND Pederson for if I were the Dodgers. Guys for example, like Mike Trout who would never be traded in the first place.
Mikenmn
Hamels is a fine pitcher. But that price plus his contract is too high. It’s a gigantic wager by the acquiring team that he won’t get hurt and the prospects won’t pan out as solid. The balance of Hamel’s contract is roughly worth Lester on the FA market (plus another year, perhaps) and you keep your prospects.
Rally Weimaraner
You really think Lester is going to settle for a 4/90 deal as a FA?
Mikenmn
No, but the total commitment to Hamels with the vesting option is 5/110 or 5/114. Add a year to that, I think you are in the ballpark.
GrumpyPuppy
That is still really low by today’s FA standards. I think Lester will sign a deal similar to Zack Greinke’s 6/159 deal.
Mikenmn
You could be right. So, I guess the analysis is, would be whether you think it’s a good idea to give up three top tier prospects to not have the sixth year/dollars.
maxp
You’re also assuming that he would rather play for your team instead of going to another team that’s offering similar money.
Phillies_Aces35
But you sign a free agent to that contract you’re only giving up a first round draft pick.
teddyballgame
Might be more years but the money will be the same.
EarlyMorningBoxscore
Lester will sign for well over 100 million dollars.
teddyballgame
I’m referring to the AAV.
EarlyMorningBoxscore
ahhhh that makes wayyyy more sense.
Karl Larson
He will get Cole Hamels AAV with less years.
Phillyfan425
Nightengale is crazy. Why would you use your best trade chip to get rid of pieces that aren’t going to be moved (or will be moved, but for a very minimal return) and then get back less prospects? Phillies don’t need salary relief – they need prospects. I’d rather be stuck with Howard and Papelbon and have 3 great prospects and no Hamels, than be rid of Hamels, Howard, and Papelpon and only have 1 great prospect and 2 good prospects.
paqza
If I were the Rays, Shelby Miller wouldn’t interest me. His numbers are worrisome at best and outright bad at worst. I’d start by asking for Martinez and Taveras.
John Lembcke
Cards fan here…Taveras should be untouchable. I hope the team doesnt take the short sighted view of how he’s started off this year and deal him away for a pitcher.
teddyballgame
You wouldn’t give up one player for the chance to win a World Series?
SumatranRatMonkey
It’s never that simple. You have to consider the next 6 years too.
teddyballgame
Let the next six years work themselves out… winning a World Series now for a shake of the magic eight ball isn’t what I’d consider a smart move.
Rally Weimaraner
Except one pitcher doesn’t win you the WS it just gives you a shake of the magic postseason ball.
teddyballgame
Improves the odds pretty significantly. But if you’d rather wait there are two other teams in the division who would jump at the chance.
East Coast Bias
I think the Cards have done alright lately, don’t you? They don’t NEED to do anything drastic. They’re built to be competitive every year. And they have as good as a shot as any other NL team to reach the WS for the next few years.
teddyballgame
Oh I would absolutely agree with that statement. I think the Cardinals are the best run organization in the business right now. Sure they’ve had a little luck to go along with it but that’s part of the game. I’m excited that the Red Sox are starting to see how this process has worked for teams like the Cards and Rays.
SumatranRatMonkey
Like I said. It’s never that simple. Fielding a competitive team for a greater period gives you a better chance to win a World Series than going all in for short bursts.
mattt-3
Trading for an ace is still shaking a magic eight ball. The Cardinals with Price certainly have a scary post-season rotation, but it’s not like that guarantees them a championship.
maxp
If you’re only making trades that guarantee you a championship, you’ll never make a trade. Every trade is about balancing the now vs. the tomorrow. And each team is at a different place in that spectrum.
John Lembcke
I’m just saying a deal could get done for a pitcher but keep Taveras out of it. He’s gonna be an All-Star level stud getting paid league minimum.
Kendall Adkins
I don’t think he’s untouchable for the right player. Shouldn’t be for a rental though. Too much OF depth for him to be untouchable.
PaperLions
Then trade the depth and keep the potential difference maker.
Kendall Adkins
It’s not really depth if it’s not made up of several potential difference makers.
Kyle 19
Your team is one of if not the best run organizations in all of baseball. I am sure your team would not take a short sighted view. My team would though…lol (Angels)
Guest 3673
Martinez is not pitching any better than Miller …. he cannot get out of the 5th. Got a long way to go. Miller is a better pitcher IMO.
PaperLions
Not even close. El Gallo has far better stuff. He’s still developing…he’s 22. There is no way you give up on that much talent rather than just letting it develop and reaping the benefits.
john sands
Miller is 23… They are both still developing. Obviously you don’t watch these guys pitch.
PaperLions
Uh huh. Carlos has a better FB, a better change, and a better breaking ball. Miller doesn’t have any stuff that is better than Martinez. Miller is older and with far more pitching experience than Martinez. Miller has been very inconsistent, at times resistant to coaching (never seen Yadi so frustrated with a pitcher so often) and his mechanics fall apart inning to inning.
Martinez’s problem is that his stuff moves so much that he can’t control it yet.
mattt-3
He’s a 23 year old who was as high ranked as high as #6 overall among ALL prospects a few years back and had a year last year with a 3.06 ERA over 170 IP and where he was close to striking out a batter per inning.
He certainly hasn’t recreated those numbers this year, but Shelby Miller still has an incredible amount of value.
paqza
Shelby Miller is putting up similar numbers to Jamie Moyer in his mid-to-late 40s. He’s got a nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio. The problem is that his numbers are so much worse this year than last year. I am not talking about Miller as a prospect a few years ago. I’m talking about 2014 Major League Shelby Miller and he’s just not very good and he doesn’t look like he’ll be very good in the foreseeable future. Any value he has is for a FO office who doesn’t look at a player’s current performance. When your current numbers comparable to a guy like Travis Wood and much worse than a guy like Dillon Gee, you don’t have that much value, other than as a “buy low” piece.
mattt-3
You’re comparing a 23 year old former 1st round draft pick who had a great rookie season and is struggling in his second year with his control (even though his stuff is still very good) to Jamie Moyer in his 40s for value to other front offices?
I don’t think you have a good grasp of how young baseball players are valued.
paqza
On the contrary – I’m arguing that Miller’s value right now is the lowest it has ever been and that I personally would avoid him, especially if I had David Price to move. If I were moving Price, there’s no way I would accept Miller as anything but a “throw-in” considering how dreadful he has pitched this year, and the fact that there was something clearly wrong with him at the end of last year. You’re overvaluing what he’s worth – he throws hard, sure, but he looks similar to Jake Arrieta to me – a guy who’ll need plenty of time to put it together.
Brian 31
Take Amaro’s asking price for Hamels with a grain of salt; that sounds just like the crazy offers that came out of the leaked Astros notes from last year’s trading deadline. I’m sure the Phillies have no intention on trading Hamels and are asking for the world just in the off chance someone will give the world.
Phillyfan425
Which is exactly what he should be doing. He should be blown away by an offer for Hamels. He’s a top 15 pitcher in baseball, at 30 years old, locked in for 4 more years. If there’s a player on that roster that you build your team around for say…2016…it’s Hamels. He shouldn’t just be giving that up just to unload some other bad contracts.
teddyballgame
The Phillies need a trade similar to the Dodgers/Red Sox trade even if it means giving up a good player to dump guys that are getting significantly overpaid.
Phillyfan425
Why? What amazing FA are going to save this team before the Papelbon/Howard contracts run out? None. Team needs a major overhaul – starting at the prospect level. You won’t get back great prospects by adding in Howard/Papelbon in a deal with Hamels.
teddyballgame
The Red Sox won a title last year without signing any amazing free agents. They had payroll flexibility that allowed them to pick up quality mid-tier guys and adjust as needed to be successful.
Phillyfan425
And look at where they are this year. The Red Sox also retained Lester, Papi, Pedroia (3 players the Phillies don’t have if they trade Hamels). They got some great play out of slightly above average players (from the free agents they signed after the 2012 season).
teddyballgame
They’re the defending World Series Champions with the flexibility to rebuild with a plethora of young talent waiting in the wings to prove what they can do at the major league level and give the team the young core they need to be a contender for years to come? I’m not sure what I’m missing here? Where are the Phillies? What do they have to look forward to by doing nothing?
flyerzfan12
The Red Sox hit on pretty much every mid-tier guy they signed. Very rarely does that happen. Usually you’re happy if maybe 25% (and I feel like that’s higher than it is in reality) of mid-tier signings contribute the way any one of the Red Sox did.
teddyballgame
They did it in 2004 as well. This isn’t a one trick pony.
flyerzfan12
They had a core of Ramirez, Ortiz, Varitek, Damon, Schilling, Pedro, Wakefield, Arroyo, and Lowe if I recall. Big difference in core group between that team adding mid-level signings and a team like the Phillies. If the Phillies did what you suggested and used Hamels to rid themselves of Howard to free up $$, they’d be left with Utley and maybe Lee with basically nothing else to add mid-level guys to. You need a core to add mid-level guys to, the Phillies would greatly lack that.
teddyballgame
They don’t have a core now… how does hanging onto Hamels and trying to build around one player change that? At least making the moves they have financial flexibility again to add pieces as they become available.
They’re going nowhere with the team they have now… what are they waiting for?
Jim Johnson
Wouldn’t trading Hamels for prospects give them a better chance of building a core?
teddyballgame
Exactly the point I’m trying to make. Thanks!
Jim Johnson
You seem to be arguing that they should dump the big salary guys and include Hamels in it so teams would be willing to take them on.
teddyballgame
I’m saying if that’s what it takes to move those salaries sometimes you have to bite the bullet. I’m not saying that is the ideal solution by any means but if its the only choice I say you take it.
Jim Johnson
But they don’t really need to move the salaries, they have all the money in the world. And dumping the money isn’t going to turn them into a winner within the amount of time it would take for the contracts to play themselves out anyway. The only chance the Phillies have to be a winner, both in the near future and the distance future, is to build up their farm system. And that isn’t going to happen if they sacrifice prospects for teams taking on money.
John Cate
That’s what the Red Sox did. They gave away the one still-good player in the Dodger deal (Adrian Gonzalez) so they could get rid of two bad players (Beckett and Crawford) with horrible contracts. If I were the Phillies, and I could swing a similar deal and send Papelbon and Howard and their contracts packing, I’d do it even at the loss of Hamels.
maxp
But the Phillies have no need to get rid of salary. They have plenty of money and aren’t anywhere close to a dive into FA from contending again. That kind of trade doesn’t open up any options for them.
John Cate
They said the same thing about the Red Sox at the time they made the Dodger deal. Most people were picking them to finish last in the AL East in the 2013 preseason. The Phillies do have a lot of money, but unfortunately, too much of it is tied up in people like Ryan Howard. You can do quite a bit with just a little payroll flexibility, and the Phillies are exactly where the Red Sox are in that regard–they have a lot of money, but not unlimited money like the Yankees and Dodgers.
maxp
So I’ll give you an imaginary $60M to spend in free agency this year. Who are you getting that is making the Phillies a playoff contender in the next 2 years?
Those players don’t exist. The 2014 Phillies roster is wholeheartedly worse then the Red Sox 2012 roster, especially without Hamels. Compare Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Lester, Lackey with what the Phillies would bring back without Hamels. Night and day. The analogy just doesn’t work.
Jim Johnson
I don’t understand what Boston has to do with Philly? Philly doesn’t need to shed those contracts. They aren’t great, but those contracts are what’s keeping Philly from competing. It’s the lack of talent, particularly young talent, that is killing them. Trading your best piece in order to shed contracts, would be a horrible move.
flyerzfan12
I never said they shouldn’t sell. I would sell everyone I could, including Hamels. However I would not use Cole to dump bad contracts (Howard, Papelbon) and take a lesser return in prospects to do so. Titles aren’t won by signing a team of free agents. Free agents nowadays are older and most don’t live up to their contracts. Smart teams are locking their young guys to contracts and keeping them off the market. The Phillies need to get those young guys first before worrying about the FA market.
teddyballgame
Sometimes you have to take a little less to dump the contracts… that’s part of the process. I think on a whole though we’re on the same page. If the Phillies can give away the others without having to take on significant portions of their contract that would be a win.
flyerzfan12
I agree we’re on the same page other than that first part. I do think Amaro is insane and asking for waaaay too much if the rumors are true, but the Phillies are in the position to eat money to get the better prospects. Unfortunately, Howard is going nowhere no matter what amount of money is eaten.
DickieThong
You mean Big Papi won a title.
LIMetfan22
Philles aren’t contending in 2016. Who would bring back anything of value besides Hamels? Cliff Lee whose been on the DL half the year and hasn’t been great? Utley and Rollins (lol)?
Maybe Ryan Howard and his great contract.
Phillyfan425
Nobody is going to bring back anything of amazing value. But a guy like Byrd should get you a mid-level prospect (maybe 2 if you eat some money). Lee isn’t getting moved till August (and the Phillies have said they’re willing to eat money on deals – if a team could get Cliff Lee for say, $15 M a season, I’d think they’d get on it, assuming he comes back better in August).
LIMetfan22
Agreed on Byrd. After all he got the Mets a very good reliever and a stud 2b prospect.
There’s a few different ways Amaro could go. He could hope to God somebody is going to meet his retarded asking price, but that won’t happen. The only way he’s getting good prospects is by eating most of the money on these contracts. I doubt anything will of significance will happen though. They don’t call him Ruin Tomorrow Jr. for nothing.
TommyC
In two years, the Phillies will still be able to get what teams would be willing to offer now (he will still have 1.5 years of control and there will be less of a financial commitment).
If they’re not going to get that extra top prospect or two now, why not hold onto him for a couple more years and see if it is realistic to hold onto him for a run in 2017?
teddyballgame
What do they have to help them make that run in 2017?
TommyC
Maikel Franco, JP Crawford, Aaron Nola and hopefully prospects returned in deals involving the many trade pieces at their disposal this season. Plus the ability to sign big free agents with Howard, Papelbon and many others off the books.
teddyballgame
LOL… thats the point I’m trying to make. Thanks for agreeing with me.
TommyC
Where is anyone arguing that the Phillies shouldn’t trade any of their players?
The discussion here is that Hamels does not need to be traded this year. Lee, Rollins, Utley, Byrd, Bastardo, Burnett should all be shipped out.
John Cate
Problem is that they can’t trade Rollins. He’s a 10-and-5 player and has made it clear he isn’t going anywhere. His 2015 option has already vested (1100 PA’s), so they only way they can unload him is to release him and pay him the rest of his 2014 salary, and $11MM for 2015. Obviously, they won’t do that.
maxp
I bet if the right situation came to him – more likely in the offseason – he’d waive. He wanted to stick around to get the hits record, which he has. If the Giants or A’s were interested close to his home, I’d be shocked if he didn’t waive. Honestly, I think he’d waiver for any contender in the offseason.
LIMetfan22
Franco has been awful this year. 82 wRC+ which is terrible.
Nola’s ceiling is mid rotation starter.
And what big free agents, pray tell? if you haven’t noticed, most teams are locking up their young star players early due to market inflation. Also, Howards contract still has several years on it. As does Papelbon I believe.
TommyC
Both deals will be up in 2017. Not sure how to respond to the idea that there will be no worthwhile free agents in the future.
Teams have always tried to lock up their young talent. And the young talent and their agents have always preferred the big payday to be had on the open market.
As for Franco, the tools are still there and he is having a better second half. It’s worrisome, but lots of guys struggle when making the jump to AAA and it’s way too early to write him off as a bust.
LIMetfan22
I’m not claiming he’s a bust, but he definitely isn’t a top 30 prospect like he was in the preseason.
And of course there will be worthwhile free agents. There always are. But the days of an A-Rod or Prince Fielder reaching the market are over.
The Phils will have to rely on their farm systems for a long time. And right now, it’s extremely barren. I think their future was ranked as 29th recently on MLB.
jb226 2
“Teams have always tried to lock up their young talent. And the young talent and their agents have always preferred the big payday to be had on the open market.”
That’s not true. There has been a huge shift in team-friendly extensions in the past few years that usually buys out a few free agent years. The net result is that not only are there less available players, but those are ARE available are older and getting larger commitments because of the increased competition.
LIMetfan22
What run? their major league team is full of 30+ year olds. Their farm system has JP Crawford and not much else. Franco and Biddle took huge steps back this year. How are they going to make a run?
EarlyMorningBoxscore
I think by make a run he means “The Phillies will score a run in 2017.”
LIMetfan22
I think so too.
TommyC
The Phillies are in a good position to be able to supplement a few homegrown difference makers with a bunch of free agents. Lots of money will be off the books in 2017.
If a few more good prospects arise in the next three years, that quick of a turnaround isn’t out of the picture.
And of course, I’m speaking hypothetically. If in 2016, things are still looking bleak, they still have the option to trade Hamels and should.
LIMetfan22
That’s an entirely hypothetical, massive best-case-scenario. I highly doubt any of that will occur. Plus, with the Mets, Nats, and Fish on the rise, it will be that much more difficult for the Phils to get anywhere tbh. Enjoy the cellar for the next decade+.
W.G
No he shouldn’t be asking for the world, that’s what has gotten RAJ into trouble. Now I agree they shouldn’t just give Hamels away, but he HAS to be reasonable.
Yes Cole Hames is a good pitcher, great when at the top of his game. But he turns 31 this offseason and is getting payed at least 20 Million annually for 4-5 years. If RAJ asks for a teams top 3 prospects, and STILL have to pay for his entire contract, why would you do it? I guarantee teams would rather wait to sign a younger FA pitcher and keep their prospects.
Also do you really think the Phillies will be a contender in 2016? If they don’t trade Hamels or Lee, they don’t have the young talent to develop by then. In that division, they have a ways to go. But if they trade Hamels they can finally start a solid rebuilding process.
Phillyfan425
Actually, what’s gotten RAJ in trouble is not asking for enough back – or giving up too much when trading for players.
Also, what younger FA pitchers are on the market this offseason? Lester will be 31 to start next year (and probably command more than 4 years). Shields will be 33 to start next year (and will probably command 4 years – 3 if you’re lucky). Scherzer is the youngest of the bunch at 30 (and will probably command at least 4 years). Of course teams want to keep their prospects and sign younger FA pitchers. But that isn’t really a viable option with the age most pitchers are hitting FA.
Depending on what they do at the deadline, they have an outside shot at contending in 2016. 2017 is much more realistic (since Papelbon and Howard would both be off the books – and it gives another year of development for their prospects). That still gives them 1 more guaranteed year of Hamels, with an option for a 2nd year.
W.G
Phillies have the cash, but they don’t have the young talent to develop. Where are the going to get that from? Even if they luck out in the draft it will still be 4-5 years before their team competes with the Nationals, Braves and Marlins.
Seriously though, who besides Hamels can bring in a top prospect? I understand as a Phillies fan you don’t want to give up a franchise cornerstone, and especially not if your not getting alot in return. But there isn’t a ton going on in that farm system.
sflomenb
Come on Ruben!! I think it’s reasonable out of Pederson, Seagar and Urais to get 2 of them.
LIMetfan22
2 of them is certainly more plausible than all 3….But that contract is definitely a factor.
sflomenb
Wouldn’t be too much of a factor for the Dodgers.
LIMetfan22
I doubt Ruin Tomorrow Jr. will do anything of significance.
maxp
His contract is a positive. But you’ve made it clear in this thread that you’re only interested in looking at the beyond worst case scenario. And the Phillies bleak present/future doesn’t require additional pessimism.
Flint Beastwood
that contract is absurd
EarlyMorningBoxscore
Have you looked at his stats? In what way is his contract absurd?
Robbieb7
It’s going to look like a steal compared to the deals Scherzer and Lester are going to get next year.
Rally Weimaraner
Have you looked at the contracts the Dodgers’ other starters have?
Robbieb7
Even if they can’t get two, i’d still be happy with one of Pederson/Seager + Lee + Anderson + Schebler for Hamels +10 or 20 million.
Kendall Adkins
Cardinals fan speaking: I wouldn’t mind giving up a couple prospects for Cole Hamels. He would arguably be part of the best 1-2 punch in the MLB, rivaled only by Kershaw and Greinke. But to ask for 4 top prospects and to pick up the entire salary is just ridiculous. No way you give up Taveras, Martinez, Grichuk, and Piscotty for 1 pitcher. There are maybe 3 players in the MLB worth that (Trout, Stanton, Kershaw?) The most I would go is Martinez and Grichuk or Piscotty if we are picking up the entire salary. I know this post isn’t exactly about this topic, but these are the rumors I’ve heard.
flyerzfan12
I like hearing what other fans would offer and truthfully am hoping the Phillies trade Cole to the Cardinals. I love Cole but know this team is going nowhere for a while and he is their best asset to get a solid return. I also want to see him play for a contender and an organization I respect. Add in their great farm system and the Cardinals fir the bill.
koufaxblue
The Phillies have to be out of there minds. No way are the Dodgers going to agree on that.
Robbieb7
It’s Ruben Amaro jr we’re dealing with here, he’s always out of his mind.
mrnatewalter
I would’ve also added that LA has to take on Howard’s contract lol.
maxp
I completely understand why the Dodgers wouldn’t want to meet that price with the current status of their rotation. But why should the Phillies settle for less? It’s OK to say the team’s just aren’t a match.
MilkMeMore
No team is going to give up 3 top 20 Prospects for Hamels. As Traded a top 10 for an ace and a number 3,
Bob Bunker
Shark had a year and half of control and is more like a number 2 with no postseason experience, Hammels is more like a 5 with a half year of control.
Meanwhile Cole Hamels is a top 15 SP in the game, proven ace, proven postseason performer, locked in for 4 years at a very reasonable contract. Hamels gets more back then Shark
Bob Bunker
Shark had a year and half of control and is more like a number 2 with no postseason experience, Hammels is more like a 5 with a half year of control.
Meanwhile Cole Hamels is a top 15 SP in the game, proven ace, proven postseason performer, locked in for 4 years at a very reasonable contract. Hamels gets more back then Shark
thegrayrace
I understand Matt Kemp is frustrated that he’s been moved from centerfield, despite it being a long overdue measure that is clearly justified by defensive metrics, but does he really think that any Major League team he is traded to would put him back in centerfield? Heck, if he’s traded to an AL club he might end up as a DH.
treday
That’s the most frustrating part. Literally NO ONE will play him in center this season. The best he could hope for would be a spring training try-out there next season, which is probably what the Dodgers will try and give him anyways. Problem is, I think he sees himself as a CF still, and his agent certainly keeps feeding him assurances he’s correct.
wyldstallyns
Taveras & Miller for Price only makes sense for the Cardinals if they can get a commitment from Price. Cards probably wouldn’t want to extend him for much more than what Wainwright got (5/about 100). For that reason, it’s probably a no-go. Losing Taveras would hurt a lot, but think of it this way – if his ceiling is as a 5-6 win player (which is probably high given his relatively low HR power and non-elite speed/defense), you’re probably going to get 3 years of that starting in 2016 (he’s likely worth 2-3 wins as a regular next year). Miller is a solid 2-3 win pitcher with 4 more years of control.
Price will help you win now and next year more than down the road, but if he gets 4 more years as a 3-win guy after his “walk” year then he’s probably going to be worth about 16-17 wins from now until the end of a hypothetical 4-year extension. If you can replace Taveras in right with a 2-win player (Craig or one of the other kids, Piscotty/Grichuk), then you’ve got close to the same production you would have gotten out of Taveras and Miller, ASSUMING (a big if) Taveras turns into a perennial All-Star in 2016.
A deal (with a commitment from Price) would mean a ton more money, but the Cards have flexibility now and a big contract coming off the books after 2016. If Price says he’ll re-up, as much as it would hurt, I’d say do the deal.
teddyballgame
I think I remember Price saying at one time that he wants to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball. But man… a year and a half of Wainwright and Price… that would be devastating with the rest of the pieces they have to support them.
DickieThong
If a 37 year old R.A. Dickey got the Mets d’Arnaud and Syndergaard, then I think Hamels should command a lot more.
MilkMeMore
Jays were desperate though, LA isnt. That’s like when the Giants traded away wheeler.
Phillies_Aces35
I’d lower the ask to two of those guys (Preferably Seager and Pederson) and a buy low guy like Zach Lee and kick in other pieces like a Ben Revere or a Marlon Byrd (if the Dodgers deal Kemp in some type of three way trade). I may only even require Seager in a deal if it include more high quality guys.
I don’t think the Phillies could make a deal without getting two of Seager, Peterson, and Urias back plus a few other pieces in the low minors. They can’t afford to not get a franchise changing package for Hamels.
MilkMeMore
If they trade kemp they wont trade pederson and if they trade pederson they wont trade kemp. So That first scenario doesn’t seem too likely.
Dodgerz88
Looks like Dodgers are out the running for Hamels.
jeffm
While it’s definitely a lot to ask for Seager, Pederson and Urias, we are talking about a top 5 LHP, in his prime with a good contract that you know you’ll have through at least 2018, possibly 2019. If it comes down to 2 of the 3, I’d take Pederson and Seager and expect a few more good prospects. The Phillies need high potential bats close to big league ready. They need to build and play to their ballpark which favors hitting. Urias looks legit, but Phillies fans have seen over the last few years that great pitching means nothing if you’re plating 2-3 runs per game.
For those 2 this a deal I’d be comfortable making:
Cole Hamels, Cody Asche, Aaron Altherr and Kelly Dugan for Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Chris Anderson, Scott Schebler, Darnell Sweeney and Yimi Garcia.
While they’re not the same level of prospect, the Dodgers would get a couple upper level outfielders to replenish their system a bit and a young 3B to go along with Hamels.
Still don’t see why the Dodgers would even be interested in Hamels at this point though unless they lose Kershaw, Greinke or Ryu to TJ surgery that could see them miss the rest of this season and next season.
bagpipes5
Cole Hamels is pitching like he wants to get traded to a contender. He was on the DL to start the season. Take away his first 3 starts which were basically his spring training Hamels has a 1.98 era this season in 13 starts.
Thats pitching in the bandbox in Philadelphia
Last 2 starts he has cranked it up to 95-96 mph on occassion.
FWIW Hamels has a 1.64 career era in Dodger Stadium.
bagpipes5
A blockbuster between LAD and Philly makes so much sense.
Hamels,Revere,Papelbon to LA
Matt Kemp + Prospects to Philly
Philadelphia needs a CF in the worst way and they can handle Kemps contract as they just signed a $3 B TV deal.
Allismileo
The Phillies should try to unload Howard to St Louis. A return to his hometown might rejuvenate Howard and if the Cards take a bit of his contract and gave the Phillies some decent prospects it could work out on both sides. The Cards are probably too smart to go for that, but they do need a power bat.
Rollins and Utley are still spark plugs to the team even if their abilities have deteriorated a bit.
Hamel is a great pitcher but he’s not the type of pitcher you build a killer rotation around. I say trade him now and get everything you can for him. If the deal isn’t perfect, keep him around.
Trade Lee or Burnett or both to Pittsburg and get some of those top pitching prospects from them.
As for Byrd, I think the Phillies should keep him; that is unless they get a ridiculously good offer.
But drop Asche, Brown and Revere- they are dead weight and boring.
I know it’s all a bit mad, but the Phillies are still capable of being a winner now. They need some youthful passion- balanced with they aging stars.
W.G
Adams and Craig already at first base… There is a logjam between 1B and the OF, so if anything, Cardinals trade away a 1B not get one. For the Phillies to get ride of Howard they’d have to just give him away, pure and simple. There is a reason Cards let Pujols walk.
I agree with you on Hamels though. If you trade him to Cardinals you probably could get Taveras + a couple of mid-level prospects or Miller, Martinez Wong. Something like that.
MilkMeMore
Lol they didn’t let him walk they offered a 9 yr contract….he just chose a 10 yr one from LAA
W.G
… So what is your definition of letting him walk? The offered him a contract to where is production was heading. After a certain point they refused to overpay. No matter what point, they still didn’t actively attempt to outbid anyone.
Allismileo
Cards definitely let Pujols walk. I remember his wife going to the media in St Louis saying how disappointed she was that the organization didn’t seem to want him anymore based on their offer. It was a big deal.
MilkMeMore
You made it sound that they didnt try to resign him because of the prospects which isnt true.
W.G
No, it’s true the reason they didn’t try hard to resign him was so that A). They could get a draft picks(s) (Which ended up being Michael Wacha) and B). So they could have financial flexibility.
If Cardinals got Howard and his contract, they would A). Have to give up prospects and B). They would have to take on a huge contract (Ruben Amaro has made it clear that he won’t give his players away w/ out a good return and they wont eat any salary). The same reason they didn’t resign Pujols is the same reason they wouldn’t trade for someone like Howard.
maxp
I disagree with virtually everything you stated. If the Phillies could get the returns on the players you are suggesting, they should have been gone yesterday. And then you want to dump the only young cheap players they have for no apparent reason.
Jesus Gutierrez
hahah all 3 ridiculous
ericl
The Phillies don’t have to trade Hamels. Unlike most of the team, he is still a highly productive player for them. He is an ace they can build around. They should only trade him if they get blown away. Also, there is no way they trade Hamels just to get rid of Howard’s contract. That makes no sense for a team that has very little in their farm system. The money thing isn’t an issue with their television deal. They can walk away from Howard at the end of this season and still have money to spend
timpa
RAJ is like that guy who goes on Pawn Stars and asks $10,000 for something. Then winds up settling for $1,000 he ends up blowing in the casino down the street within the hour.