Jon Lester has been scratched from his scheduled start tonight — a clear indicator that the Red Sox are looking to deal their ace. It briefly looked like the Orioles were close to a deal, but while those talks are serious, the deal isn’t close yet. Here’s the latest…
- The Cardinals and Pirates are making the strongest bids for Lester at the moment, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report (Twitter link). The Dodgers also remain involved.
Earlier Updates
- In a full article, Heyman writes that the A’s are the mystery team that has stepped into the Lester bidding. Nothing is close between the two sides at the moment, however.
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that a mystery team is becoming more involved.
- Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reports that the Athletics are in on Lester.
- Via WEEI’s Alex Speier (on Twitter), manager John Farrell expects Lester to be in uniform with the Red Sox today.
- The Cardinals’ acquisition of Justin Masterson doesn’t necessarily take them out of the running for Lester, sources tell Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The Cards could still acquire Lester, though it may cost them Shelby Miller, Morosi adds in a second tweet.
- The Marlins aren’t entirely out of the Lester sweepstakes, an AL executive familiar with the negotiations tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. However, the Marlins won’t part with top prospect Andrew Heaney in a Lester deal (or a deal for any rental player).
- The Cardinals and Dodgers are the two teams that are most aggressively competing for Lester’s services, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. They’re also the most aggressive clubs on David Price, though it’s far from a given that the Rays will move their own left-handed ace. Heyman hears similar things to yesterday’s reports regarding the Brewers and Orioles and says neither is in the mix at this point.
- An NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he thinks the Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers and Mariners are the primary suitors for Lester heading into Wednesday (Twitter link).
Speaking as a Dodger fan, I really think the Pirates can offer the best package for the Red Sox and have perhaps the most pressing need. I am loathe to think what the Dodgers would have to give up for essentially someone who would be a mid rotation starter for us for two months (as crazy as it is to call Lester a mid rotation starter).
Lester pitched well against the Cardinals in the WS last year. He is also having a career year this year. He could be your 3rd ace.
As a Pirates fan, you can have him. I’ll wait for next year.
As Ike Davis’s agent, please stop being a Pirate fan, and take Ike with you.
Typical Pirates thinking. Let’s wait till next year. You’ve made the playoffs once in the past 22 years.
You don’t just throw prospects away either. The Pirates have a rookie in RF. Fielding issues at 3B, Davis/Sanchez at 1B. So even if you get Lester for 2 months are the Pirates the favorite? NO. I either go after someone with some control or no thanks.
Josh Harrison is gonna man 3B if Pedro doesn’t get his act together. Pedro has seen most of his time on the bench since the All Star break, and that’s probably going to continue. And why are you making it seem like having a rookie in RF is a bad thing? Polanco is stumping right now because the Pirates have seen an outrageous number of LHP recently. And I hate Ike Davis, but his career numbers in August and September suggest that he is about to start producing. They might not match up with the Dodgers on paper, but they are 4-2 against them this year.
Josh Harrison looks like a very solid player to me. Really impressed with him, he’s clocking the Giants incredibly well this series.
I think Neil Walker will be leaving and J-Hay will be the Pirates 2B for years to come.
Walker us under contract through 2016. He was born and raised in Pittsburgh, his dad pitched for the Pirates, and he is absolutely beloved in this city. I don’t think Walker ever leaves.
It’s a business and I like Walker. I hope he does get resigned but we will see.
Well that couldn’t be more wrong. This is more or less going to be the best year of Harrisons career. There is no way he keeps up this production for years to come. Neil Walker probably won’t be signed, which leaves Alen Hanson to man 2b for years to come
Again not against moving prospects. Just not for a rental when you have a bunch of ifs. I’m willing too move the top guys for a true shot at a World Series for the next couple years. Lester might be the answer in LA but not here. Polanco is going to be great but will have growing pains this year too.
Well, its a judgment call, but almost everyone who holds onto their prospects fails to get to the show. Prospects are prospects. They may pan out or not. They are far from sure things. A proven lefty starter with an ERA under 3.00 who has the experience of carrying a team to a championship is worth tens of millions. If you really want to get over the hump, signing him now gives you the best chance you are going to have for a decade.
The guys you trade for don’t always carry you to the promised land. If you have enough prospects then something is going to stick. And that something may be a better pitcher than Jon Lester
Alot of if’s in your reply. If one pans out, out of 6, that’s the going rate. And if, the one that “pans out” happens to become one of the top ten lefties of all-time, because Lester is in that “top-ten of all time” category. The odds in favor of that are 1 in 100,000. Getting one guy as a prospect who turns out to be equal to Lester is tantamount to winning the lottery. Its nice to dream about, but it most likely won’t happen in your lifetime.
Are the Pirates a favorite, no. But they are a contender and that’s what matters.
Don’t care. Not giving away 2 of our top 5 prospects might keep us in the playoffs 10 of the next 12 years
2012 Nats say hello to all of you saying that the Pirates, who hadn’t seen a post season game in generations, are suddenly the 1990s Braves
The prices are unreasonable bordering unrealistic. If we’re talking Lester for Bell and a low-ceiling guy, maybe, but Cespedes and a pick? No. Thanks. I’ll take my chances with the pitching yet to come.
Assuming you make it to the world series, you don’t think having Lester mid rotation would help against some of the better AL teams? Go for it all now, it has been a while…
“How patient will Red Sox fans be if Jon Lester departs?” is a nice read in the Boston Globe.
Quote from article (via Bloomberg) [Red Sox owner John Henry talking about a study he read]: “To me, the most important thing this study shows is that virtually all of the underpaid players are under 30 and virtually all of the overpaid players are over 30…’’
If that quote is real and Henry believes it Lester will not be back if he is traded… because someone will “overpay” him.
That’s such a silly premise. Players don’t usually hit free agency until they’re 28-31, so naturally they’re the ones who are overpaid.
Pre-arb players make the minimum. With they way the teams play the service time game, it tips the scale even further. But his basic premise is correct. Younger players at their physical peaks playing for ML minimums are going to be the best deal
I’m not saying he’s wrong, but if he needed a study to figure that out then he doesn’t understand how the MLB salary structure works.
He’s a very smart man. He likes to package things around numbers that other people produce. He doesn’t want to tell the fans “I’m not keeping people over 30 on long term contracts no matter how much you like them.”
Exactly!
Frustrating that John Henry references these “studies” instead of talking with Tim Richer for 5 minutes.
Too bad they are only making an exception for Ortiz.
Uhm, no. Ortiz doesn’t have a long-term contract. Most we’ve given him is 2 years. We pay people big bucks. Its just that we don’t go over 3 years for anyone.
And a ripe apple tastes so much better than a green one still on the tree.
I bet John Henry makes more money now, than when he was younger
Sox gave AGon $154M contract, $142M to Carl “Anxiety-stop-changing-my-batting-order-and-stance” Crawford, nearly $83M to Lackey 5 yrs ago. But Lester is a home grown player and should give Red Sox Pedroia-like discount or they don’t have any options but to trade him for probably team’s #4-5 prospect. Shame…
First of all, those were all Theo signings. But for you to so completely misrepresent the situation is very strange. Once extension talks fell through (the Sox botched it), Lester said even if he were traded, he’d consider resigning in the offseason with the Sox. Basically green-lighting a trade if it meant making the club better. The sox will have as good a chance to sign him in the offseason whether or not he plays for another team for the next 2 months or if the Sox just held on to him. He is going to look at what Free Agency offers him, he’s earned that right.
Lester is just trying to make himself look good just like the team was trying by trying to open negotiations again. I have no doubt he’ll return to Boston, if they offer the most money.
Sox offer to Lester doesn’t have to be the best but close enough will do the job. But again, if Sox were serious, they would have signed him by now at far lower cost than they will have to during the off-season.
That’s very cute to think that Sox will have as good a chance as other teams, such as Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc, even if they failed to extend him while Lester was willing to give them home town discount. I’m sure home town discount will be effective in the off-season as well but you will have to compete with these big market teams. I only wish best luck to Lester and I’ll be dancing on the street naked if Sox sign Lester this off-season but If they are not willing to even meet standard offer with no competence, what makes you think they will suddenly throw in money close to other teams are offering to Jon?
It’s also very cute to try to belittle an argument by saying it’s cute. Like I said, Boston botched their initial offer, basically making it impossible to continue realistic negotiations without having to completely overpay from there. But to think they wouldn’t understand they will have to offer a realistic contract this offseason is asinine. And they have plenty of money to contend with offers from any other team. But since they did screw up the extension talks, why not get more for him now than a compensation pick?
his idea of “home town discount” and the teams were very different. i think they do have as good a chance as any of the other teams, but that discount is more along the lines of 10% than the 40% the sox offered.
Is there one example of a player who gets traded away re-signing? High profile, not a role player.
Cliff Lee.
That’s right. Thanks. Although he did take a circular journey to that re-signing, and teased the Rangers a bunch before signing with the Phils.
He also wasn’t released mid-season, but in the off-season, so the hard feelings had a bit longer to fade.
He also teased the Yankees, allegedly.
That teasing and rejection of the Yanks was awesome
Saying someone should give a hometown discount is always presumptuous. Most of us that aren’t baseball players wouldn’t turn down a raise if we had the chance at one, and yes I understand that sports is a unique situation, but still. With the rules put in place for MLB, there’s often not many chances these players have at a truly big payday.
Also, it’s not like most of these players are playing in what’s really their “hometowns.” Very rarely is a player drafted by the organization he grew up rooting for.
So an NL GM is giving inside info to a Boston based writer….anonymously. Congrats on staying incognito Jed Hoyer…I mean “NL GM”
Best comment in the thread.
I’m not sure what Boston hopes to accomplish by trading a proven, top-of-the-rotation workhorse. It’s the most difficult kind of player to acquire, or to develop. In Lester,they have a home-grown guy who is happy, healthy, and wants to stay in Boston, and they’re going to deal him away for far too little. Lester brings fans into the park. IMO, they would be making an enormous mistake by trading him. He won’t be back.
what they hope to accomplish is getting more than a compensation pick for the guy if someone offers a ton more than they are willing to.
Not sure they’ve done their due diligence on trying to sign the guy before he’s a FA, though. Unless his asking price is well beyond reason, that should be their goal. No one they could replace Lester with is going to be any cheaper. I’m not even sure there is anyone they could replace him with, at least not readily available.
they said, “no negotiations during the season.” he said, “fine.” when they came back to try and talk he said, “we agree not to talk.” and didn’t. when it reached the point they were going to hit free agency why not get what you can for him?
Under those parameters, I agree. However, I suspect he would have talked if they had shown him the money. All speculation at this point, and it will be what it will be. My opinion will play no role in this.
What if they did talk and he agreed to come back (after a trade to a contender) as long as they offered fair market value or close to it for 5 years? Why is that so hard to believe?
I’d love to believe that. It’s hard to believe when you know that many other teams will be opening their wallets come Springtime. If Lester was truly hell-bent on staying in Boston, he would talk to them now and reach an agreement.
He doesn’t come off as a “I’m going to the highest bidder” kind of guy. If Boston offers what he wants I can see him passing on the Yanks to come back. Unless NYY goes crazy and offers something like 7/196 or 5/150…
It is such a joy and honor to play in Boston that they expect their players to take 2/3 market value deals.
Red Sox fans pack out Fenway every game regardless of whether or not Lester is on the roster.
Why do I have this bizarre desire to see all the proposed Lester deals go poof? Lester is going to be one of the most interesting case-studies. Fine pitcher (not quite in the absolute top rank, but a 1-A), thirty, and wants to stay. Might take a modest home-town discount. Boston can clearly afford him, but front office has been very smart recently about contracts, and very cognizant of the age-factor. And, the FO has also been very tough-minded and business oriented. No sentiment. If he’s traded, I don’t see them re-signing him for what others will be willing to pay. I think they have decided to monetize the asset while they can. Can’t say I blame them, but it’s certainly interesting.
hanson or meadows and pick a prospect not in top 10
I want Lester, but not that bad. Him and Miller for Jacoby Jones, Barret Barnes, Jose Tabata and Andy Oliver should be more than sufficient. Jones can play 2nd/ss/cf, Barnes can play all 3 OF slots and Andy Oliver would be on the big league roster for at least 8-10 other teams already.
You think other contenders can’t beat that offer for Lester and Miller??
Im sure they can, but will they? I said above that id be willing to part with Harold Ramirez in a deal also, which should considerably sweeten the pot. If nobody is willing to give up there top top guys, it will come down to the best package to address needs…anything could happen.
They will. When it comes down to it, it’s a win now business. If any contender believes adding Lester means going all the way, they will pay the price.
He’s a UFA!!! Anyone going to offer more than that can go after Price or Hamels!!!
Price is staying in Tampa. Hamels would require a MUCH larger package than Lester. Boston will get what they want for Lester or they’ll just keep him and I personally think teams are going to start brawling over him if they haven’t already.
No teams are moving back to Price and Hamels and raising the offers. Funny that Price isn’t moving but Altoona Curve is flooded with TB scouts. Not saying he will be a Pirate but Tampa will move Price for the right deal. They don’t wait and do good job at moving players at peak values.
That would be shocking given their current run. Although, without Matt Moore what’s the point really.
I don’t buy the link of Tabata to the Lester talks, personally.
The entire league had their chance to grab Tabata for nothing but cash, and they passed. He has negative trade value and weighs down a potential Pittsburgh offer in my mind. He’s not even hitting in Triple-A.
Why do Pirates fans think any other team would want Jose Tabata? He doesn’t even crack their lineup, why would the Sox want him for their best asset?
Red Sox are desperate for outfield help. Tabata is worth taking a flyer on even with the contract. He’d only be a throw in though.
Red sox took a flyer on a guy…. Grady Sizemore. I think they are done on flyers. Jose Tabata as a prospect is sooooo 2008.
I don’t see why it could hurt to acquire a career .275/.338/.380 when your outfield has hit at a .250/.321/.352 clip this year. He’d only be a throw in, because he’s got nowhere to go with the Pirates current outfield situation and they could only benefit for dumping him. If the prospect return is adequate Tabata wouldn’t hurt the Sox.
He is not worth the 40 man roster spot.
He’s not on the 40 currently, so the Sox wouldn’t need to give him a spot, but if they did they can easily DFA him before the Rule 5 draft if he doesn’t work out. He’s passed through waivers before, but even if he doesn’t they won’t be losing much.
they have brock holt playing the outfield
And even he is better there than Tabata.
The only reason I mention Tabata is because he fills an immediate need, has had success at the big league level over the course of a few campaigns, and most importantly, was mentioned as a “wild card” in the two teams talks. Plus his contract is very team friendly if he stays healthy.
The Red Sox aren’t looking to fill immediate needs. This season is over, has been for a while. They are looking for players that will make an impact over the course of the next couple of years, not this year.
Or as trade chips highly desirable to other teams.
We need outfielders with power. We don’t need guys like Tabata.
A 26 year old lefty reliever, two low A players and a bench MLB player?
If that’s all it took, the Brewers would still be very much in the mix. Boston’s looking for a centerpiece who can help them in 2015. None of those guys would be a centerpiece.
I just don’t think they are going to get a centerpiece. Especially not from the Pirates.
They’ll get it from someone, why do you think he’s not pitching tonight.
To save him in case he is dealt. Just because he’s been held back doesn’t mean a game changer is coming back for him. I’d doubt it’s going to be one if the Pirates top 6 (Polanco Glasnow, Tallion, Bell, Meadows or McGuire).
1 of 2 things are going to happen. Jon Lester wakes up Friday morning a member of the Boston Red Sox or the Red Sox snag someone’s best talent today/tomorrow for him.
If he goes to the Pirates I would venture a guess that the Sox end up with 2 of those players. I doubt he goes to the pirates though. They have made it very clear they are demanding 2 A-Level prospects or they will just retain him.
If this is the case, he’ll stay in Boston. The Pirates won’t give up one if those guys, much less two.
Someone will, and its fine with us if its not the Pirates.
That’s funny…
Well if its not at least 2 of those 6, the Pirates aren’t in the discussion. Its gonna take something on the order of Tallion and Meadows for us to move him. Otherwise, we’ll just take the compensatory pick for him.
I think Bell and Kingham would be a great and somewhat realistic return if we also add Miller to the deal.
As much as I want to acquire Lester for this Bucco team, I cannot see the Cards putting themselves in a position of having to face Lester with the Pirates to get out of the NL side of the playoffs. I expect the cards to overpay just to keep him out of the Black and Gold. If you cant beat him, acquire him! That being said, the Bucs need to acquire either Lester or Price. A 4 man playoff rotation of Lester/Price, Cole, Liriano, and Morton/Volquez would be pretty nasty.
I’m not sure Price is available considering how red-hot the Rays are.
I don’t think so. It’s not going to get anyone past the Dodgers. Might as well stick with what you have and then improve in the off-season. The Pirates definitely have the offense at most positions but the pitching is a bit late. I think it’s going to be there next year, though. If they’re patient, they’ll be even better next year.
Well, the Pirates have done fairly well against the Dodgers so far this season, so I dont quite understand your logic on how they dont have a chance to beat them in the playoffs, ESPECIALLY after adding a true #1 to there roster thru trade, and adding another #1 from the DL (Cole). I think adding Lester or Price would make them the favorites in the central if everything else remained the same (which it most likely will not).
they havent faced Kershaw in either series either…could have been 2-less wins
Dude have you seen Kershaw’s post season stats? He’s not a playoff lock by any means. Greinke’s aren’t great either. I think the Dodgers need Lester as much as anyone. I think Lester pitches in a LCS this season, I’d bet on it.
Sample size my friend.
I know but anyone who gets Lester (a legit postseason STUD) likes their chances a whole lot more. Right now, so one should think any team has it in the bag.
You did watch him carry our team on his back to a championship lasts season, right?
The sample size knife cuts both ways though. Not only is it silly to assume that Kershaw’s stats in the playoffs will hold, it’s also silly to assume the Dodgers are a lock.
After all, last year the Cardinals beat Kershaw twice in the NLCS.
Even if Price were available, you’d have to give up at least 3 of the vaunted 6 prospects you all are claiming are off the table to get him.
@DempseyK:disqus That would be an excellent rotation for the playoffs. I doubt StL will give up Taveras for 2 months of Lester. Would you if you were the Pittsburgh GM not give up Polanco or Glasnow/Meadows + if Lester and one of Koji/Miller were coming over?
I wouldnt give up one of those players straight up for Lester, let alone a package of them. I would offer Jacoby Jones, Barret Barnes, Andy Oliver and Jose Tabata for Lester +a reliever. That is an excellent return for 2 mos of Lester. OR Id reluctantly do Barret Barnes, Brandon Cumpton, Andy Oliver, and Jose Tabata for Lester and a reliever.
Polanco, Taillion, Glasnow, Kingham, Meadows, and Bell are completely out of the question for a rental according to Huntington…and as far as Im concerned, Hanson and Mcguire should be added to that list as well.
If centering the deal around Harold Ramirez gets this done, then id reluctantly do that to get Lester. Ramirez is a top 5 prospect if he were in 15+ different organizations. Possibly top 3 for 5-10. He has STUD potential, but he is also very blocked. so id part with him if need be.
I wouldn’t. I don’t think this season should be an all-in push. The Pirates have been good, the Central is a crapshoot, and the Dodgers are stacked beyond comprehension. Why take that gamble, which it absolutely is?
No.
1) Lester doesn’t make the Pirates better than
the Dodgers on paper. I’d say most
Pirate fan consider 1b and the bullpen (not to mention Alvarez’s defense) as
bigger problems than starting pitching.
2) The Pirates will not trade 1000 more games of
Polanco or Glasnow’s upside for 12 Lester starts. They are simply not a team that can flex financial
muscle to replace these prospects.
He’s just not worth it.
They can win now. For a team like Pittsburgh the window does not stay open long. You can’t bank your future on prospects it’s a bad move.
Clearly !!! Tampa Bay and Oakland are prime examples of that.
Oakland has never been a legit World Series threat until this year and it’s only because they traded for a top of the rotation starter. Tampa Bay would be right there if Moore was healthy but as soon as Price is gone that ship will sail.
I hope the Dodgers stand pat, & keep their top 3 prospects in the system. Saeger, Urias, and Pederson will be stars for years to come!
2004 BA top 100: #4 Edwin Jackson, #8 Greg Miller, #31 Franklin Gutierrez, #42 James Loney
That’s just it, prospects are just:PROSPECTS
Right, so it’s worth it to move them for a guy that can help you win NOW. Look at the Brewers, traded prospects away twice for CC and Greinke and are in 1st place today. Prospects are so overrated it’s not even funny.
I thought Lorenzo with the Benzo would have busted out by now but he’s struggled with injuries. Brantley finally did this year in a big way, but its six years post-trade. Living in the present! Something that Epstein/Hoyer might have to try in like… 3 years or something.
Finally someone who gets it! All these people who are saying no way do you give up Seager, Urias or Pederson are crazy! I’d gladly give up one of those chips for a chance at a World Series…Risk-reward..Plus the outfield is already crowded in LA and i dont see anyone taking Kemp/Either/Crawford or Puig going anywhere..So why not give Joc for a chance at glory! I do agree that Lester is not a true Ace in the sense of the top 3 guys in MLB, but I do feel he has finally become the guy everyone said he would be. He’s trending up, not Verlander down. I get its a 2mth rental, but were talking about a WS here dodger fans!!
I do think Urias looks like the real deal, but a lot of his rating comes from him being so young. If there is one thing that everybody is seriously overrating at this point it’s the shiny youth. He could end up being a mid-rotation guy, but because he’s a 17 year old in the California league (which is crazy impressive) there are dreams of him being the next Fernando. Those types of shooting stars (and Fernando was straight up amazing) are as rare as hen’s teeth. I’d hang on to see if I’m the Dodgers. The other two… not so much.
I definatly agree asking for Urias may be a bit much. Heck I know this is against even my own wishes, but taking on Kemp(Dogers eating a huge amount of $) would be almost as much as a risk as getting a top prospect. Not saying they should or that I want them to, just making a point.
That’s a terrible argument, and you’re using selective data to try and prove a point. To argue the other side of that, more prospects from that same year and their rankings (I’ll even try to match your rankings):
#1 Mauer, #2 B.J Upton, #10 Prince Fielder, #14 Zack Greinke, #21 David Wright, #30 Felix Hernandez, #39 Hanley Ramirez, #49 Adam Wainwright, #52 Adrian Gonzalez
Anyone can pick the bad ones from the list, but the fact is, top prospects are top prospects for a reason. Also, why did you use a list from 10 years ago? Had to go back a bit to find a list that would prove your point?
Actually I have always remembered the hype of the early 2000s Dodgers prospects, and how good they were going to be. You want something more current? 2010: #46 Dee Gordon, #48 Chris Withrow, #49 Andrew Lambo, #56 James McDonald.
Or, if you read my other comment, it might be more like this: 2009 #7 Clayton Kershaw, #31 Andy LaRoche, #55 Chin-Lung Hu and #88 Scott Elbert. There’s a keeper, and then there’s some trade assets. That’s how it is now, with Urias as the keeper.
You gave an example that highlights success, but that’s nine prospects scattered across nine farm systems. In other words, a terrible argument not relevant to the discussion.
Seems like you’re both making the same argument on different sides…..if his argument is invalid then yours is to….but you brought it up, he was just sticking within the parameters of your argument. A relevant factor would be the percentage of top 50 or 100 prospects that turn into A) everyday players B) Busts C) trade chips D) All-stars, of course you would have to have a few years of sample, but I’m sure this information is fairly easy to find.
It’s called the BA 100, they have every list going back to 1990, and there is a link. Not sure if its permissible to post or not. And let’s be real here: nobody is trading a top 10 draft pick blue chip as Mauer, Upton, Fielder and Grienke were. That’s using selective data.
Urias is the keeper, huh? Soooooooo easy.
Well, how do you know which one’s you’ve got? You have some crystal ball that tells you that your prospects are in the fabulous 9 out of the top 50? Its a gamble, but only 20% of the top 50 turn out to be all-star caliber. Another 20% turn out to be mediocre journeymen. And 60% wash out. So, where do your guys fall?
Look at WAR leaders this year (or any year) and you’ll see that the vast majority of them were prospects for their current team at some point.
Well, looking at last year there is a pretty big mix actually, going F/G top 20 hitters:
Homegrown and kept: Trout, McCutchen, Carpenter, Longoria, Goldschmidt, Machado, Votto, Cano, Ellsbury, Molina, Tulo, Pedroia
Acquired via trade (maybe a couple of FAs, I’m doing this quick): Donaldson, Cabrera, Gomez, Davis, Victorino, Pence, Zobrist, Choo
You’re welcome to put up the 2013 F/G pitchers top 20 if you like. My point was that prospects bust all the time. Most blue chip first rounders don’t get traded though, so that skews it some too. Nobody was getting Trout, McCutchen, Longo, Machado or Tulo for all the tea in China. The next tier is where it gets interesting.
Donaldson and Zobrist were still prospects for their current teams. The fact that they were traded for isn’t really relevant. Gomez was a young quasi prospect traded for a veteran….doesn’t really back you up. Of course prospects bust all the time. Is that even a point worth making?
Tulo was the 25th ranked prospect in 2005, Cutch was ranked 33rd in 2008, Trout was ranked 85th in 2009….all lower than Seager’s current ranking (he’ll probably be top 10 next season). My point is not that the Dodgers should’t trade Seager, just that it’s not NEARLY as simple as you’re making it out to be.
Brandon Wood, Joel Guzman, Andy Marte, Ian Stewart and Lastings Milledge would like a word with you.
“””Of course prospects bust all the time. Is that even a point worth making?”””
Anyway,,,,,,Buster Posey, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum would like a word with you. Oh, and Zack Wheeler and Carlos Beltran too!
You don’t get his point, do you? Prospects are a gamble, for every Trout, there are multiple Milledges.
There was a time when every Dodger-fan declared the other famous Big 3 Dodgers prospects off limits in any trade. You remember them? Loney, Kemp and Ethier.
Kemp came close until he got hurt, but the other 2 never lived up to the expectations.
How’s this…Pedroia to San Franciso? Uggla has been horrible for the Giants, and Pedroia is a California guy. Contract is very team-friendly in this market. Mookie Betts becomes Boston’s regular second baseman in 2015. Just a thought.
Yikes I’m already down about losing Lester soon.. stop it!
You’re banking heavily on Betts the same way everyone did with Bogaerts in that situation. Can’t happen. Pedroia still means too much to this team. Has he had struggles this year? Yeah, but the whole offense has.
This year? Pedroia stats have gone down every year pretty much. I was just talking to a guy at work about trading Pedroia, we’re ok with it. The Sox have a log jam of infielders, X, Holt and Betts just scratch the surface.
Surely it’s not all the injuries he’s played through.
He had a solid season last year. This is his first real struggle of a season.
Pedroia is a Red Sox guy. No.
As a Giant fan I would love that trade, but I don’t think there is any way it could happen. He’s signed the friendliest deal in the sport, and he’s the face of the franchise. You just don’t do that.
No way, Pedey is a Sox for life. He took a generous paycut to stay.
Pedroia has stated he wouldn’t play for the Giants. He takes it personally that he grew up rooting for them living in that area and they overlooked him in the draft.
No chance. Even if it was a good baseball decision, which I’m not sure it is, the PR destruction would be epic. No way the front office deals him. Especially when they are already getting a rough turn for what’s happening with Lester.
The Pirates need a healthy Gerrit Cole and Liriano to pitch the way he has the last 2 starts. I’m OK with our rotation if those 2 are on top of it. If the Pirates are going to give up top prospects then do it for Hamels. He’s signed and if the Pirates think in a year he’s to expensive then they can trade him. I would offer Jeff Locke, Nick Kingham, Alen Hanson, and Luis Heredia…. 3 Top prospects and a pitcher who was a All-Star last year. I get it he faded but he’s back and has helped carry the Pirates into a playoff race.
There is merit to your idea, but I would rather have Price than Hamels, but I wouldnt complain abiut either…They can both be traded over the winter or next season to recoup the prospect value you gave up to get them, but with price you can keep him next year for 17-20 mill thru arby and just give him a 2016 qualifying offer so that you get a nice comp pick.
I want Price too but I was looking at the years of control on Hamel to justify giving up top prospects.
Pirates fans make me laugh. I love the thought but there is ZERO chance the phillies would do a deal with Pit unless it starts with Glasnow and Bell
Pirates fans make me laugh. I love the thought but there is ZERO chance the phillies would do a deal with Pit unless it starts with Glasnow and Bell
The Red Sox look like they’re rebuilding but really they’re just being cheap and frugal. It’s like they won the world series and are complacent with it and don’t care about winning any more then saving money.
To many of you are banking on your prospects being All-Stars. History will tell you that the chance of them becoming an all-star is slim. If you have a pretty deep farm system and the chance to win now then do it. The pirates for example haven’t won their division in 22 years and have only made the playoffs once in that time period. Why not trade Bell who won’t fill in any needs in the near future considering your OF is set for the next few years and could be a bust considering he hasn’t played past AA. It’s amazing how obsessed some of the commentators are on this site even for players who are not even a top 5 prospect on their team.
I have no problem trading prospects but not for rentals.
Exactly. That’s why Hamels is the best option.
You guys probably can’t afford Hamels unless the Phillies take a huge chunk of that salary. When they do that, say goodbye to not only Bell but your other top prospects as well.
Perhaps they won’t be all stars, but we know Lester will not be in Pittsburgh next year.
There is no one who knows anything who thinks Bell is a bust.
Just bacause the Pirates are locked at the OF, doesn’t mean this guy can’t be a 1b.
That’s why Hamels is the best option. He is locked up at a fair market value for years and is better than any of them.
Not sure if he’s better than Price but it’s close.
I like to look at post season resumes too and Hamels clearly wins that battle but I agree we are splitting hairs. The bottom line is do you want to give up a little less for price or Lester just to watch them run to nther Yankees after the season or give up a little more for an ace who you have for 4 more years?
The Pirates are a small market team, have been for years, with extremely cheap ownership comes payroll restrictions. The only way the Pirates would get Hamels would be for them to get the Phillies to eat a majority of his salary, something that Ruben doesn’t like doing.
Hamels is the worst option for the Pirates, based on what it would cost to acquire him, not only in prospects but also in the burden it would place on the Pirates’ payroll over the next 4 years.
Lester makes the most sense for the Pirates, if all they have to give up is a chip like Bell.
Burden? Hamels could be moved whenever you wanted too. Besides the Pirates are bringing in plenty of money.
Do you really think the Pirates are good enough to win a World Series with Lester? If the answer is yes then I agree trade makes sense. I don’t see that.
Based on what the Phillies asked for from the Dodgers, the Pirates would need to give up Polanco, Glasnow and Taillon. If all you’re looking for is a rental, just trade for the rental and give up less.
I do believe the Pirates could go all the way with Lester. They are 1 game out of first place. They are in the lead for the 2nd wildcard spot right now, and half a game back from the first wildcard spot. Swapping out Volquez and Locke for Lester and Cole clearly makes this team the favorite to win the Central.
Going into the playoffs with a rotation of Lester, Cole and Liriano (who has looked great after coming off the DL), I think they can match up with anybody.
He’s not getting over paid though. That’s what it cosyts to have an ace.
No, I understand that – that’s why I said it was a bad deal for the Pirates. The Pirates can’t take on that kind of money, even though it is a fair price. With an extra $22MM added to the payroll, say goodbye to Russell Martin and the ability to sign any free agents over the next 4 years.
I said could he be a bust considering he has only played in 13 games in AA. Yes he had a good season in single A but struck out a lot more than he walked last year while hitting .278 in single A. Lets not get to excited.
I didn’t see anyone mention below, and I haven’t seen it mentioned in previous threads either. Josh Bell is being highly considered to shift to 1B as soon as next season, considering the OF and 1B situations currently in Pittsburgh. I feel like this is a key piece of info that not many outside of Pittsburgh are considering in this entire situation.
He also takes gorund balls at 3rd base before each game. He played some 3rd in high school. Unless you got o a game and see it you won’t hear it mentioned. He has an infielders glove that he works with regularly.
You said it yourself. It all comes down to “If you have a pretty deep farm system…” The Dodgers have a few excellent prospects, but not a deep farm system. It’s of course true that Corey Seager or Jac Pederson could be busts, but simply letting them go for a two-month rental of a pitcher would leave the organization in a position where it will have to fill three holes, including Lester’s, at the end of the season.
I’m not against trading the Dodgers’ best prospects, but only if it’s going to help the team for more than just the rest of this season.
This represents the thing fans from large market clubs don’t understand about prospects for the small market teams. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers can much more easily part with their top prospects compared to teams like the Pirates. Large market teams have the money to go out and sign whomever they want to fill a hole where as teams like the Pirates just can’t. They have to rely on their prospects to be competitive for future years. Sure some of the guys will be busts, but some won’t and these players don’t do you any good playing in another teams uniform. They can’t afford to overpay in prospects for anybody they acquire. I honestly don’t see the Pirates as real WS contenders even with Lester unless they get some real help in the pen. I’m not against trading prospects for a rental, they just have to be of a fair value.
You guys way over value prospects. You all want an ace but cry over unknown kids.
“Next year, we’ll win. For sure. No, really.”
You can’t fill every position with trades and free agents. You need help from your farm system.
I understand that but only counting on prospects gets GMs fired too. You know what you are getting with a stud like Hamels and you know he will be with you for years unmlike lester.
Yup, Kansas City had a island full of prospects a few years back, none of them have turned into the “superstars” they were suppose to be.
Tigers do have a 25 year old who has an astounding 73 wins. Would be a perfect fit for Red Sox as he is a ground ball pitcher. He has a 8.2 fWAR last three years (v. Lester’s 11.9). He should be just hitting his stride and it is reasonable that his next 5 years could be like Lester’s last 5 years.
Of course if I mention his name, people will dismiss it, but he will have a better career than 80% of the “can’t miss” prospects mentioned and his “floor” is much more stable.
#1. Who cares how many wins Porcello has
#2. He will be a free agent after next season.
I like Porcello some, but I have no idea what he has to do with a Lester trade.
1. Pitchers with “Wins” win games. Winning games is important I would think. That’s why.
If you discounting wins to “Zero value”, you lose a metric to capture a pitcher’s to stay in the game even if they do not have a quality start (common issue on in the AL East with higher scoring games with superstar hitters) and the ability of a pitcher to eat innings and stay healthy. That is why.
Also take a look at his fWAR which I also mentioned.
2. Yes. Is that a big issue? Boston would be able to sign him long term if they wish with a much smaller price tag than Lester. Is Boston so cheap that they cannot sign Porcello to an extension?
Hamels is the best option out of all the pitchers. He’s a 30 year old lefty, former World Series MVP who is locked up at ba fair market for several years. The Phillies toss in 10-15 million to make it even better. That’s 19 million per year for an ace in his prime. If I’m the carded I give up Taveras, Shelbey Miller and a lower prospect to have a rotation of Adam W., Hamels, Wacha and Lynn for years to come. They still have Piscotey coming up soon. Why rent a player who is a lesser player who is going to the highest bidder in two months?
It’s gonna take more than that. Amaro is a funny guy.
Regardless you don’t just give an ace like Hamels away for nothing considering he is lockedf up for years. People act like Hamels is owed all this money but have you guys seen what pitchers like him get paid? He is cheap.
What makes you think that would be enough to land Hamels? Taveras, Miller and a 2015 comp pick was the rumored package for David Price, Hamels will certainly be a more expensive acquisition.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see Amaro ask for Martinez.
Ruben could ask for more but I think Taveras, Miller and a top 4- 7 prospect is fair. Taveras would give them a great young player to watch grows ever day with guys like Maikel Franco. They are also serious about the Cuban Rusney Castillo. Miller is a good young pitcher who can replace Hamels in the rotation. The Phillies could go from old to young in one trade over night.
Doubt the Phils would throw in any cash.
Somewhat lost here is a very interesting Boston tactic. I’ve never seen or heard of anybody being announced as scratched from a start they were scheduled to make with no deal in place. Seems like some very clever posturing on Cherington’s part. That’s not to say he won’t be moved, but it seems like somewhat of a play to get people to escalate their offers quickly. Has the feel of him publicly announcing….”going once, going twice…..”
no need to run the risk of Lester going out and getting shelled by the Blue Jays and lowering his value a tad, or even worse, getting hurt (however unlikely the case may be). It’s a smart move.
It’s pretty unorthodox. I would say it has more to do with getting people to up the ante rather than injury risk although that does make some sense. I’d still prefer to keep him on regular rest and possibly increase (slightly) his value with a good start against a contender. Either way, can’t say I’ve seen it done before.
Also when you’re only talking about a 2 month rental, every start an acquiring team can get out of him is valuable. He’ll be able to start right away for a new team. Losing 1 start from him is about 10% of his value.
I think this sounds about right. More incentive.
I think Hamels makes the most sense to the Cards because they have the prospects and players to match what the Phillies need. Taveras, Miller and another prospect.
Adam W, Hamels, Wacha, Lynn etc..Yikes!!!
Lester fits the Pirates or Brewers IMO. Both can’t take on big money.
Having Hamels under contract the next couple years would elevate the Cardinals payroll higher than it’s ever been. They could be open to that, but no one really knows.
I think its been reported the Phillies are willing to toss in 10-15 million for the better return so that would make Hamels 19 million per year which is a steal.
I’m not arguing Hamels value. It’s a very reasonable contract. That still doesn’t mean we should assume a team is willing to up payroll $20MM higher than they’ve ever been to bring him in.
Chances are the Dodgers became more “comfortable” with the RF version of Matt Kemp over the course of the last week, and may be willing to ship off Pederson for the right return. If they package him up with last year’s no1, Chris Anderson, then both teams should have lunch today.
If Amaro can get either Pederson or Seager with Urias and another prospect for Hamels he should pull the trigger.
Seager is not on the table at all.
Are any of them on the table? Other teams are asking for them apparently, but that isn’t the same thing.
True, point taken, but some can be had, few can’t
If we only really knew which was which. The problem I’ve got with a lot of this discussion is the assumption that the Dodgers are not serious about protecting their farm system.
According to the latest (Gammons, at least), it looks none of them going anywhere. Refreshing.
Its all gm speak. They always say prospects are not available and then they get moved. You have to give up something to get a left handed ace in his prime that is locked up for years.
i’d ask what other team has 3 top 20 prospects. If no one does that has a need, can you reasonably expect that price from the only team that can do it? A better question before we get to that question is to ask which team has more of an interest in transferring the player, the team that wishes to be rid of the player or the team who wishes to acquire. My opinion is the red sox rays, and phillies have more to lose by not trading than the dodgers gain for receiving. Therefore the fans ranting about how their pitcher is the best thing since sliced bread and that they have all the leverage and can get whatever want are not looking at the two fundamental questions.
The Sox have no leverage IMO. Teams know the Sox can’t resign him.
It’s about replacement value, but this time for the prospect versus the MLB primary target. The Dodgers, in the last 30 some-odd years, have had THREE Third Basemen that anybody would have no issues remembering their names: Cey, Wallach, and Beltre. Oh sure, Seager is currently a SS, but it’s hard to not imagine him as the Opening Day 3B for LA in 2016. If he sticks at SS, that’s fine too.
yeah but that problem is solved simply by moving HanRam to third. In that sense they don’t need a 3b at all so wouldn’t do this deal. And it doesn’t create a need for a ss because uribe is adequate enough to cover it whithout simply creating a new offensive hole. Gordon would be a stretch but moving him to short or CF and then calling up Guerrero to cover second also solves it.
i’d ask what other team has 3 top 20 prospects. If no one does that has a need, can you reasonably expect that price from the only team that can do it? A better question before we get to that question is to ask which team has more of an interest in transferring the player, the team that wishes to be rid of the player or the team who wishes to acquire. My opinion is the red sox rays, and phillies have more to lose by not trading than the dodgers gain for receiving. Therefore the fans ranting about how their pitcher is the best thing since sliced bread and that they have all the leverage and can get whatever want are not looking at the two fundamental questions.
No, really. Seager is the one guy that isn’t going, yet his name is convenient enough to print. Nice of the Phils to want though.
I’m not sure about the last part, but it should be clear to everyone by now why the Dodgers would be foolish to trade Kemp. The real change is Puig’s adapting to CF, allowing Kemp to move back to RF, and Ethier’s status as a fifth wheel.
I’m curious, is this following scenario a possibility?
1. Red Sox trade Lester to a team, team gives up prospects
2. After 2 month rental period is over, Lester hits free agency in the off season.
3. Lester resigns with Red Sox
Lester has made it clear that he enjoys pitching for them, and that he would welcome returning to them. Can this all be a plan by the Red Sox and Lester to acquire talent? Would be pretty clever if that was the case!
Its shady but it could happen but gammons said the Sox do not want to pay the 140 million dollar contract lester wants.
very possible but unlikely it comes without risk. I’m 100 percent sure that the Sox and Lester haven’t had anything close to a written or verbal agreement, or even an assurance on his part that he’ll come back. But I’m sure that between speaking with him, comments he’s made publicly, talking to people close with him and the team that the red sox feel that there’s at least as good of a chance that he’ll come back even if they trade him. In other words, trading him midseason when you can get return on him and you’re completely out of the playoff race will not impact the likelihood that he will resign as a free agent at year’s end. That being the case there’s nothing but positives to moving him if the return you can get on him will be better than the comp pick they would receive if he rejected a qualifying offer (which it is and he would)
very possible but unlikely it comes without risk. I’m 100 percent sure that the Sox and Lester haven’t had anything close to a written or verbal agreement, or even an assurance on his part that he’ll come back. But I’m sure that between speaking with him, comments he’s made publicly, talking to people close with him and the team that the red sox feel that there’s at least as good of a chance that he’ll come back even if they trade him. In other words, trading him midseason when you can get return on him and you’re completely out of the playoff race will not impact the likelihood that he will resign as a free agent at year’s end. That being the case there’s nothing but positives to moving him if the return you can get on him will be better than the comp pick they would receive if he rejected a qualifying offer (which it is and he would)
Is it possible? Sure, he’s said that he’d like to come back regardless of what happens, but it’s highly unlikely. If the Red Sox wanted to give him a offer he deemed fair it would have already happened. Going into free agency will only inflate the cost and make it even less likely they’ll pony up the cash.
Lester being scratched from his start indicates that the Red Sox respect the fact that he’s probably distracted from all of this and wouldn’t probably be focused on the task at hand.
For Boston’s sake, something better be happening soon regarding Lester. As the deadline approaches, trading him for a bag of beans and a AA-level catcher would be better than losing him with no return.
That’s just not true. Keeping him is better than just sending him away for a mediocre package.
But the way the bidding war has accelerated and the Sox are basically poviding the 2 best SP options on the market (Lester and Lackey ; assuming that Price and Hamels will stay put), neither of the 2 will be on the Sox come august. Lackey with an outside chance due to the threat of him not pitching for the league minimum.
I just wish the Sox had given him an extension and this was all over–who cares if they overpay him a little??? He’s a home-grown star who’s been part of two World Series Champions, and he’s healthy!!!
Ask Amaro how the loyalty contracts have fared out.
If indeed Hamels is on the block now, I dont think it hurts the Sox in getting a hefty return for Lester. If indeed Hamels goes to Pirates or Dogers the other team may feel pushed to “spend the farm” to compete with the other. I say let the fireworks begin! Obviously Hamels is worth more in prospect value, but feeling that Lester may bring you a WS ring this year, who knows what he could bring in return!
3 team trade between the Rangers, Dodgers, and Red Sox
Dodgers get:
3B Adrian Beltre
SP Jon Lester
CF Leonys Martin
RP Andrew Miller
Red Sox get:
SS Elvis Andrus (move Xander to 3B full time)
OF Matt Kemp
OF/1B Ronald Guzman
40 Mil from Dodgers
25 Mil from Rangers
Rangers get:
SP Julio Urias
OF Joc Pederson
SS Corey Seager
SP Brian Johnson
Rangers fan by any chance?
I, for one, would not like this kind of trade (Rangers) because it would mean the Rangers move to a rebuilding phase when, IMO, next year a healthy team can be a formidable opponent in the AL again.
If you’re going to trade the core of the team, you may as well sell Darvish off high while you can and have the best farm system by far (assuming this trade occurred — which it wouldn’t).
And what kind of reaction do you expect such a bizarre suggestion to receive? Well at least the Dodgers and Sox both get hosed in this one.
Reverberations: 2 brand spanking new free agent GM’s
Thanks Dodgers!
im going to fire up the playstation and see how that works out
It worked for me when I added the Ryan Howard into the mix.
So the Sox are taking on like $170 mil of awful contracts? Why would they want to pay Andrus $100 mil when they have one of the best glove-first shortstop prospects in the league a year away? Not to mention giving up one of their most underrated minor league arms (Johnson) and missing out on all 3 of Urias/Pederson/Seager? And Let’s not even get started on this from a Dodger fan’s perspective.
The Marlins are out then. Its two top prospects folks. He’s not moving for anything less. We’ll take the compensatory pick and the chance to re-sign him instead. Saying your top prospect is off the table means you ain’t in the discussion.
Should the Buccos trade prospects for Lester?
Remember what the Brewers gave up to get a rental of CC Sabathia in 2008? Brantley is a decent player but the rest are pretty indicative of how sideways prospects can go, 3 out of 4 haven’t panned out. Without Sabathia the crew are likely not the wild card in 2008. They didn’t win it all, but they made the post season for the cost of essentially Brantley. Good deal by just about any metric. Kudos to Melvin for his talent evaluation and negotiating skill. NH has already proven he has a good grip on the former.
There’s too much fetishism over prospects. Most wont make it. The trick for the Buccos front office is to mitigate the loss as much as possible in any trade to win now. Waiting for next year could mean decades, as any Pirate fan can attest.
Good Point but at the same time Brantley has a 150 OPS+ right now. I think a Josh Bell or Meadows trade makes sense because those two are blocked by Marte, Cutch, and Polanco for at least two more years giving them plenty of time to replace the 1 traded in the system and still have 1 to replace or be half of Cutch if need be.
The window of opportunity is far smaller for a small market team like the Pirates than the Dodgers. I can see the Pirates getting him but still shouldn’t come at the cost of a top 25 prospect. A couple high ceiling guys should be enough.
Shoppers don’t set the price. The seller does. Its 2 elite guys. First one to that price wins. If no one does, we’ll just keep him and take the compensatory pick instead.
nobody is giving up an elite prospect so I guess they’ll just keep him.
It’s win-win for Boston since it’s likely they sign him this winter traded or not. I think they’re trying to stock pile chips to make an offer for Stanton that Miami can’t refuse and I think Lester is in on it.
The market sets the price, and clearly the consumer is a huge part of the market. Otherwise, why stop at 2 elite guys? Why not demand 3? 4? 5 elite guys?
I know this has no relevance to your post but I was just talking to
My buddy the other day (both phillies fans) and I was saying how Ben Sheets could have been one of the biggest reasons the Phillies won the WS. Yes they beat CC but I think that would’ve been the toughest series for Phillies if Sheets pitched. He was having a good year but just couldn’t stay healthy.
The Marlins’ top prospect has an ERA of 6.53? This could be a long decade for the Marlins.
Justin Verlander’s 2005 ERA was 7.15.
Roger Clemens ERA in 2005 was 1.87.
His ERA for June was only marginally better.
There is not much time left for posturing. The trade deadline is tomorrow.
Aw c’mon. We still have 26.5 hours to string this out. Don’t be such a Debbie Downer. LOL.
Don’t understand why the Marlins have interest for a 2 month rental unless they feel they can extend him which is not likely.
They have his former catcher and loads of freed up money. They have an outside shot a playoff berth this year and they get that early negotiating window. I still think it’s a long shot at best, but it is something they should entertain.
Unless the Marlins really feel they will make the playoffs, there’s no point to it. And if they did make the playoffs, there’s a great chance they only play 1 more game.
Who knows, I still think it’s a move they should avoid, even though they are on a hot streak now.
I don’t know why you’d scratch him 24 hours before the scheduled start UNLESS they already had a trade in place, which they obviously didn’t. Have him tentatively on schedule and by 2 PM Wednesday if he’s still on the team, hold off on talks, and have him start. If he gets traded, then call someone up from Pawtucket. It’s not like Pawtucket is across the country which would maintain the 24 hour notice, it’s a less than 45 minute drive down 95!
Deals are often made days in advance, but held until the last minute, so competitors cannot react.
He’s going to be traded. They have offers in hand that are enough for them to pull the trigger. Now they’re just waiting to see if they can land a better deal.
perhaps it was a posturing move to make a team ‘jump’ to add to their offer thinking the player would slip to another team. I’m sure some interested teams chuckled when nothing materialized.
Red Sox nation should rejoice. Masterson for two months netted the Indians, Ramsey. Their #6 propsect. Mo just cost the Pirates two of their top 10 prospects if they want Lester for two months. And now they have to keep up with the Cards. Bummer for my Buccos
Masterson is awful. Not sure why the Pirates would have to keep up with that.
to put it in better context, the indians have Lindor who is ranked 5 overall in the top 100 prospects. Their #2 prospect does not crack the 100. Their #6 prospect, way way down in terms of value. This is really more of an apple to orange type comparison you are making because this prospect is not very valuable when talking about prospects that are top 100. There are 5 guys after Lindor not in the top 100 when sox fans are saying that 2 months of lester net 3 top 20 prospects. it’s not a logical comparison
But to also put it into context. Masterson, while injured and a rebound candidate netted Cleveland a #1 draft pick from 2012 with an OPS in double A over .900. The claims of Bell and Ramirez plus Tabata, or Bell, Jones, and Tabata may be legit. Boston is said to really like Tabata from what Olney said on his podcast this morning.
that’s 2 years ago. you don’t think his actual performance is more telling of his talent level than where he was drafted and what he was traded for 5 years ago? player value changes somewhat year to year but players move to different stages of careers in 5 years. to just state a fact, Masterson’s best production was 2011 with a 122 era+. He hasn’t even been consistently league average since. He’s posted a career era+ 96. That tells you mediocre middle of the pack. They got a mediocre prospect in return. This isn’t some trade coup that changes the market for completely different ability players.
I cannot for the life of me understand why the Sox would want Tabata. They’re already loaded with no-power corner outfield guys, and he’s owed at least $10 mil going forward. IMO Tabata would be a salary throw-in which might help the Sox land a slightly better package of prospects
rick james to that!
Just reiterating what Olney said on his pdcast after talking with Sox execs yesterday. Don’t know the motives, just heard the statements.
All top 10s are not created equally.
I understand for David Price, but why on earth would the Cardinals trade Shelby Miller for a couple months of Lester?
If the Sox wanted Shelby Miller I’m sure the Cardinals would have obliged. His stock has taken a huge hit this year.
yeah no thanks on Miller I would hang up so fast
Shelby Miller ain’t enough to get it done for Lackey. I’d say they’re out of the running at this point on both Lester and Lackey.
Pittsburgh bound
Mystery team! Is Scott Boras about to acquire Lester??
Well Heyman is the press wing of the Boras corporation makes sense that he has sources inside the mystery team.
I’d LOVE for the Mystery Team to be the Yankees… My how I’d love to rub that in my father in laws face 🙂
That won’t happen ; )
Heyman said the two words I love hearing the most around the trade deadline: mystery team.
Yup…always good stuff
To bad it isn’t really a mystery. A’s have been connected to him before. No shocker like the Reds or something.
Man, if we got him somehow: Gray, Lester, Kazmir, and Shark=deadly.
If the A’s “are in play” and the Cards are offering Shelby Miller, then the Pirates offer of Hanson + Tabata + a lesser prospect or two seems right on the money. Oakland has no top 50 talent left (unless Boston wants Milone, althought Milone = Tabata in terms of trade value) and it seems clear St. Louis refuses to include any of their A+ top 3 prospects. If I’m Boston, and I have a choice between a deal centering around Milone, a deal centering around Miller, and one around Hanson/Tabata, I drop to my knees and thank Neal Huntington for bringing Christmas in July.
If the A’s are somehow in it I think Pomeranz would be part of the deal
If that’s the case, there is no way they trade Lackey.
Milone =/= Tabata. Teams actually want Milone, Tabata cleared waivers.
Milone/Olson/Overton > Hanson/Tabata/Lottery ticket
I’m thinking along the same lines (though I don’t think they’d trade Overton while his stock is still very low). A package of Milone, plus Nunez or Olson, and a fringe guy or two, could be pretty enticing if no one’s offering an elite prospect.
That would be an absolute steal for the Bucs, I wouldn’t see it happening. As a Pirates fan, I’d still love that deal even if you added Kingham to it, which might get it done.
#MysteryTeam close to acquiring Lester
Just kidding, the mystery team is Oakland
Hmmmm…..NL Central All In on him……It should be interesting….If the Cardinals can make the trade, I see Lester signing long term…Especially how ironic it would be if he is traded, since after the Cardinals play the Brewers they actually play the Red Sox in Saint Louis.
Pirates need to do this. They wouldn’t be able to compete with a Wainwright/Lester/Wacha/Masterson rotation. The Cardinals have even more young talented starters like Lynn, Miller, Kelly, and Martinez. The Pirates lack a true ace. Cole is a #2-3, a good Liriano is also a great #3, Morton is a decent #4 pitched, and Volquez/Worley/Locke would all do well as the #5. Getting Lester gives us our true ace. We need him to make a run to/in the playoffs.
The Cardinals can’t score. How about that Cards-Pads game 12-1 Pads.
If the Cardinals get Lester the NL Central would be a very even division to me. Even if the Pirates add Lester I don’t think it makes them a favorite.
Really the main thing you would get in a Lester trade is a true ace for a potential WC game and for actual playoff series. That’s where his worth is for a receiving team.
Then again Lester won’t help much against stopping DPs on walks.
Lester is a great option and makes the Bucs rotation one of the best in the NL. However, I’m a little concerned about next year, when we would lose Lester, Liriano, and Volquez to FA. I’d prefer someone under control through next year, even if they aren’t quite at Lester’s level, just so we can bridge the gap to guys like Taillon and Glasnow. I expect Kingham to be in the rotation next year at some point.
The cardinals need to trade for a new hitting coach because their offense is getting ridiculous.
My hope is somehow Lester signs an extension with the Red Sox today and pitches v. Yankees on ESPN at 8pm on Sunday. That atmosphere will be like the 2004 playoffs.
I don’t have a clue what the A’s have to offer. They traded away their only top 100 prospect for Shark and that was going into this season as one of the worst farms in baseball (look it up on Prospectus)
Sickels has Daniel Robertson at #73 on his mideason top 75, and said Renato Nunez would be top 85. Matt Olson’s stock has risen too. And Milone or Pomeranz could be potential chips.
That said, I’d still be fairly surprised if they got him. I think it’s likely that a team will offer an elite prospect, or package of several good ones, before it’s all said and done.
Thanks for the update. Wish I saw farm system team rankings for midseason. It only ranks the top 100 prospects then.
Hearing on Boston local news this morning that a deal was close with Baltimore until “a Baltimore top prospect” went down with an injury – coincidentally, Hunter Harvey was injured yesterday. Interesting.
I don’t think the Dodgers are out of this, since I think they can put together a better offer than Pittsburgh can, and do so without giving up Pederson/Seager/Urias. The Dodgers have a lot of good prospects besides just those 3. We’ll see what happens, but I don’t think LA is out of it.
Enough of the posturing. It is time to pull the trigger.