Yesterday, reports indicated that the Orioles and Mariners have both inquired on Red Sox ace Jon Lester, but the Sox are likely to take any decision down to the wire. Earlier this morning, we noted that Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com heard there was less than a 50 percent chance Lester is dealt based on current talks, but offers are expected to increase in the coming days.
We’ll keep track of the rest of Tuesday’s Lester-related rumors in this post…
- A source with direct knowledge of the situation says that there are six clubs still in on Lester, per Edes (via Twitter): the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Athletics.
- At present, the Red Sox have not received a trade proposal that the club is satisfied with, tweets Abraham. Multiple reports have indicated that no trade was in place when Lester was scratched from his start. At the moment, the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates are all in the mix for Lester, tweets Rosenthal.
- The Brewers are “not on” Lester, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Lester has been scratched from his start tomorrow, manager John Farrell tells reporters, including Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (via Twitter). A rival GM tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (Twitter link) that it appears a deal will be in place tonight or tomorrow morning.
- The division-rival Jays and Orioles seem out of the running for Lester at this point, per Bradford (Twitter links). A team source rejected the suggestion that the Dodgers would offer top prospect Joc Pederson for Lester, Saxon reports.
- If the Pirates make a deal for Lester, it will have to occur before his start tomorrow so he can take his next turn for Pittsburgh, reports MLB.com’s Tom Singer. The Bucs are not willing to part with prospects Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, or Austin Meadows in a deal. But the team would consider dealing Alen Hanson or JaCoby Jones, and Singer says that outfielder Jose Tabata is a “wild card” in discussions, which could potentially expand to include Mike Carp or one of several Boston relievers.
Earlier Updates
- The Red Sox were never given a “figure … on what it would have taken to sign” Lester, a source tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). But while Lester and his representatives never formally made an offer to the Red Sox, both sides exchanged numbers and understood their respective parameters, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
- The Red Sox have enhanced leverage regarding Lester because he could tip the balance in the NL Central, if not also the rest of the National League, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Sherman discusses the possibility of the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Brewers making the move for a rotation upgrade. Boston is “at least considering” attempting to deal and later re-sign its staff ace, Sherman adds.
- Sox manager John Farrell says that the club still has Lester penciled in to start, but is prepared to use Brandon Workman in his place if Lester is dealt, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets.
- The Dodgers are not close to any major deals at the moment and adding Lester “appears … unlikely,” tweets Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Nevertheless, Los Angeles appears on top of the list of likeliest suitors for the Boston lefty, as handicapped by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
- The Pirates are emerging as a dark-horse to acquire Lester, report Jeff Passan and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. (John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times was first to link the Bucs with a possible move on Lester; subscription link.) One possible centerpiece of such a deal would be well-regarded prospect Josh Bell, the Yahoo writers add. A deal with the Pirates would not necessarily involve Bell, however, Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com tweets.
- The Red Sox are actively taking offers and preparing to deal Lester, a National League GM tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Abraham says it is difficult to see Lester taking his start tomorrow for Boston.
- Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reports (via Twitter) that the Blue Jays, Mariners, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Orioles and Marlins are all currently in on Lester. The Marlins are certainly a new addition to the mix, although that would line up with Buster Olney’s report from earlier today pegging them as a potential surprise candidate for some starting pitchers. Miami has a number of high-end prospects, and Lester’s remaining $4.48MM in salary might not be too overwhelming.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News hears the same as Olney did earlier this morning (Twitter link): There’s “little doubt” in the industry that Boston will move its ace. Rival clubs are expecting a trade.
- Lester’s agent, Seth Levinson of ACES, denied a previous report that his client’s asking price in extension talks motivated the Red Sox to trade him, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. Unsurprisingly, Levinson shed no further light on any extension talks with Lester: “The discussions we had with the Red Sox were confidential and will remain that way,” Levinson said to Edes in an email.
- Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com adds some new teams to the Lester mix, as he reports that the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves have all called to inquire on the BoSox ace. Of those teams, Toronto is being the most aggressive in its pursuit, a source tells McAdam. The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
- The Brewers have spoken to the Sox about Lester, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Milwaukee was said to have asked the Rays about David Price as well, but Price might not be dealt now, and Lester would cost less to acquire. Heyman notes that Milwaukee has top pitching prospect Jimmy Nelson to offer as a centerpiece and has a deeper farm system than it has in prior years. Nelson ranked 38th on Baseball America’s midseason list of the game’s Top 50 prospects, and MLB.com ranked him 53rd on their midseason Top 100.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Cheeseman Forever
Time to stop calling Nelson a “prospect.” He got called up, has had four starts so far and has pitched effectively in three of the games. He’s a key piece of the Brewers’ future and not worth trading for another starter. What the Brewers need is offense, not another starter with a high trade price tag.
David 31
Nelson has looked good but 4 starts doesn’t take the “prospect” tag off of him yet. I would agree with you on their needs though. Rent a pitcher for 3 months by throwing away prospects doens’t make sense. They should be looking for a 1B.
basemonkey
4 starts, however good or not, is a looong way off from being a legit MLB starter.
I’d say you can only start thinking that after, say, 600 IP, which is about 2-3 years just to see what you’ve got, and, to see if he can take starters’ wear and tear of consecutive years.
Cheeseman Forever
Understood it’s a small sample size so far. But don’t trade away a legit future starter (hopefully) for a rental when the team’s major needs lie elsewhere. (Bench player with a bat, RH reliever.)
Chris Koch
There are “Prospects” with high rankings that fail and then there are prospects like Nelson who has no signs that he’s going to fail. It’d be one thing if Nelson threw 90-92 with his control issues but he throws 95+. Also is 6’6″ not 5’11”-6ft. His FB sinks because of his height.
Nelson’s control has improved evidence from last season to this year’s stats it would be 1 less walk per 9. He’s not prone to HRs. There is so much going for Nelson, it’s hard not to see him being a dominant #3 if not a good #2. And if he improves his slider any bit we are talking a dominant #2 easily here.
basemonkey
I am not doubting his quality. I think he’s an exciting young arm. That’s no question. I’m talking about the pounding and wear-and-tear of consecutive years of majorleague seasons. He’s just never done that before, and you won’t know until he’s doing it.
We’ve seen countless great arms, just as great, fail at that only for health or bad luck, not talent. How many times have we’ve seen young emerging perrenial Cy Young candidates types, suddenly hit that invisible magic wall after the 600 IP threshold? Arms have mileage on them. Some give out. Others never have a problem. On the top of my mind right now in recent memory is Neftali Perez. Scott Kazmir is a classic breakdown story. So is Mark Prior. Matt Moore of the Rays, same story. This list is endless. And they all had strong early runs but hit some health walls.
chadomac
The Brewers have the best offense in the National League, but I do agree that Nelson is too much for Lester. Not enough of an upgrade there for it to be worth 6 years of Nelson.
oh Hal
It’ll probably take 3 players to get Lester, so 18 years or lets say 12 if 1 guy doesn’t work out. Melvin is a guy who calls his minor leaguers “inventory.”
Travis2014
So just because he inquires on a good player available at the deadline he is suddenly horrible and going to make a horrible trade?
News Flash every GM does this if they have a need for a starter…some teams that don’t need one per say do it too. How do you know he even is considering it anymore? Maybe he is pressuring the Cards to sell the farm…stop judging Melvin from your couch.
oh Hal
I agree with you completely but I’d bet Melvin would not only trade him but include other premium prospects.
Better
Going to have to do better than the 38th ranked prospect lol
Steve Adams
Heyman’s implication is that other pieces would be added to the deal as opposed to a one-for-one swap.
Better
I think Boston can do better from LAD or Baltimore.
Jbruns318
Baltimore isn’t giving up Harvey or Bundy. Better try LA.
Better
We’ll see. This may be the best shot they get at a World Series.
Bleed_Orange
Not really, Baltimore is built for the long haul right now. Giving one of the best young pitchers in baseball to a rival who we play 16 times a year for a two month rental sounds awful.
Charles Tetrick
I would not want to do Bundy/Harvey for someone unless it
gets us a extra year in 2015. I would
think maybe Harvey and maybe Michael Yastrzemski or a few other smaller pieces would work
Better
Can those guys lead a rotation on a World Series caliber team?
I don’t know the answer to that question. I know Jon Lester has.
Bleed_Orange
That’s actually not a bad return for a two month rental. A few lower end guy and that’s about it.
Chris Koch
10-12 Starts of Lester for a 6’6″ Workhorse Righty with 95+MPH FB and a miniscule HR/9 rate? Boston needs to do better? Nelson is one of the few SPs within the top 100 prospects that has improved on the season. His control is better. I don’t think Nelson is getting as much credit as he should get in prospect rankings due to age. He’s ML ready to pitch. Not a 18-20year old ranked ahead of him who may take 3 more years to even reach ML besides living up to their prospect ranking of today.
oh Hal
It’s due to the org he’s in.
No matter how poorly those lists turn out, fans are obsessed with them and treat them as magical.
Chris Koch
I fully get why Nelson is in the 30s. Why not? I’d take a lot of the guys ahead of him who have proven themselves thus far in the minors at 5years less Nelson’s age. But at the same time Nelson has taken the thing that’s kept him down in rankings(control) and improved it a lot this season.
Guys previously ahead of Nelson who are SPs haven’t improved on control and thus numbers don’t match their rankings: Shelby Miller/Taijian Walker/Trevor Baeur. I feel like Nelson is being attached to their problems and ignoring his accomplishments.
oh Hal
Hey, I’m with you, but I don’t think its him, its the view of the org by Law, Parks, et al.
Chris Koch
If Nelson’s control hadn’t improved, we’re looking at a 4-5BB/9 SP. At 8-9Hit/9 we’re staing at a near 1.4WHIP SP so I get Nelson’s previously lower ranking. Add his age and yeah 18-21year olds who appear as good as Nelson today are going to be ahead of him in rankings. Many players in the Brewes minors of recent are older and really not top 10-15 draft picks. I think the club’s rankings will improve with their recent drafts having gone higher upside/younger selections. Can’t blame Law for the Brewer’s prospect rankings of late. Yeah Gennett/Davis are doing well but Davis is playing to the level expected which his value comes only via his Bat. w/o it he’s not good. Gennett is smaller with nothing that stands out. Lower power/not speedy/ avg defensively. He’s exceeded his projection thus far but it’s via a Platton enhanced numbers. If Gennett could hit Lefty’s, I’d imagine his stock would have been higher. Lucroy I will say was overlooked by Law and such but that really is about it.
oh Hal
Law is a phony. Gennett probably has about as much power as any other NL 2B. I doubt he loses that much seeing a LH pitcher every 5 or 6 starts. Remember everything he’s doing are things he wasn’t supposed to be able to do. He’ll probably have a fairly normal platoon split after a while. Law said he flat out wasn’t a major league player. Davis power is rare and his defense is far above what was advertised. Ditto for Gennett. Peralta and Thornburg, like Nelson were described as middle relievers. The purpose Law serves is to generate revenue through entertainment value.
Lucroy is part of a long list.
Chris Koch
I forgot about Thornburg but to this point he hasn’t proven anything that shows him being a solid SP option vs. just a strong RP. Peralta, I always thought has SP attached to his name. I do read in to some of Law’s rants and ignore some as well. When it comes to ranking prospects defense seems to be his more calling card on what to rank above the other. With pitching it seems more if a Pitcher has very good command of a secondary pitch that shows plus. avg offerings or lack of control of them he’s going to just overlook you. Nelson/Peralta it’s always been that secondary slider/changeup control that’s held them back. Ignoring the sink they both produce with their fastball to induce groundballs/not allow HRs.
oh Hal
Thornburg was great as a starting pitcher.If defense is a big deal to the guy, then that is a big black mark against him because he seems to not do it well at all. I’d guess the only time he sees a Brewers prospect is if they are the opposing team.
oh Hal
Law is a phony. Gennett probably has about as much power as any other NL 2B. I doubt he loses that much seeing a LH pitcher every 5 or 6 starts. Remember everything he’s doing are things he wasn’t supposed to be able to do. He’ll probably have a fairly normal platoon split after a while. Law said he flat out wasn’t a major league player. Davis power is rare and his defense is far above what was advertised. Ditto for Gennett. Peralta and Thornburg, like Nelson were described as middle relievers. The purpose Law serves is to generate revenue through entertainment value.
Lucroy is part of a long list.
oh Hal
It’s due to the org he’s in.
No matter how poorly those lists turn out, fans are obsessed with them and treat them as magical.
CharlieMurphy
I understand that you’re wary of giving up your top prospect but the bottom line is that a top 50 guy is probably the minimum going rate for Lester right now. It’s what the market dictates, not who is getting what in return comparatively.
Like you, I am really high on Nelson. But there’s also a strong chance he reverts to his control issues and ends up being a bullpen guy. Like with any prospect, there is risk involved.
Getting Lester would probably solidify a playoff spot for the Brew Crew.. and they’d have a proven playoff ace leading them in the postseason. That’s worth at least a top 50 prospect, it’s just the way it is. If they want him or any other significant addition they’ll have to give up at least Nelson.
CharlieMurphy
I understand that you’re wary of giving up your top prospect but the bottom line is that a top 50 guy is probably the minimum going rate for Lester right now. It’s what the market dictates, not who is getting what in return comparatively.
Like you, I am really high on Nelson. But there’s also a strong chance he reverts to his control issues and ends up being a bullpen guy. Like with any prospect, there is risk involved.
Getting Lester would probably solidify a playoff spot for the Brew Crew.. and they’d have a proven playoff ace leading them in the postseason. That’s worth at least a top 50 prospect, it’s just the way it is. If they want him or any other significant addition they’ll have to give up at least Nelson.
Overbrook
Not much. Maybe #38 and a few good A ball prospects.
craigcounsellhitsbombs
Trading Nelson for Lester seems terrible. I don’t understand all these rumors about Milwaukee trying to add a starter. What they need is a first basemen, a right handed reliever, and a decent bench bat.
Zac R.
If you want to win a world series, you’ll need a lot more than Lohse and Garza to beat LA.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
At least the Brew Crew is a team.
Most of the Dodgers were acquired through trade or free agency.
Puig is a different story.
Zac R.
Huh, 3 out of their 5 starting pitchers, a long with one of their best players in Carlos Gomez was acquired through trade or free agency.
schaddy24
Don’t forget Aramis Ramirez.
Better
Show me a current contender that hasn’t acquired some of it’s top talent through trades or free agency. Do not say Baltimore…
David 31
Don’t forget Lohse. Oh and Garza. The Brewers have no farm system so a lot of their players have been acquired via trade and FA. Nice try though.
JJLADfan
Some of the Dodgers worse contracts are fully homegrown smh
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
3 general statements and none of them make sense together (no offense).
daveineg
But they can’t give away a guy who figures to be a 2 or a 3 starter for them for the next 5-6 seasons for 2 months of a guy who gives them a slightly better chance in the postseason.
Zac R.
Keywords “figures to be”. How many prospects have not even come close to expectations? To many to count. If Lester comes to the Brewers, he’s automatically your best pitcher and yes he does give them a better chance in the postseason. I’d take that chance. Look at the last time the Brewers made a big trade for a lefty. They got CC. Yes they didn’t win the WS but it made the team better and those big “figured to be” prospects haven’t done anything in Cleveland.
daveineg
Again, Nelson is a rookie, not a prospect anymore. He’s in the Brewer rotation. When they traded for Sabathia, the only pitcher they gave up was Zach Jackson who Brewer brass didn’t consider more than a throw in and most Brewer fans knew couldn’t pitch. The key guy was LaPorta who was expendable because they had Fielder at the time. Pitchers like Nelson who touch 97, have produced in the minors and now are showing well in the majors are not expendable for smaller revenue teams like the Brewers. Also in the Sabathia deal was Brantley who at the time was in high A ball. Those are the kind of guys the Brewers would consider for Lester.
Trock
so would he go back to a prospect if he gets sent back down to the minors? Just because you are in the big leagues doesn’t mean you lose the title of a prospect. Is Alcantara not still a prospect because he has been with the big club for a week?
Chris Koch
Nelson Pitched for Milw to finish in September last season. The only reason Nelson doesn’t have 5-10 more Starts on this season is because they were restricting him from Super 2 status.
oh Hal
Depends on who you ask, but the sacred top lists from people like BA say once they have a certain number of ABs (on innings pitched) they are no longer prospects. Being in the minors doesn’t make a former prospect one again. Its all semantics but the relevant point is that Nelson has gone all the way through the minors, was the best pitcher in AAA and looks pretty good in the majors. Saying he might not work out because he is a “prospect” is silly. Lester might not pitch well in the playoffs either.
A-A-RON22
Michael Brantley says hi
Sage
You mean the PTBNL says hi. I think the point is that the big name prospects in the CC deal didn’t do jack with Cleveland, or anywhere else for that matter (looking at you, LaPorta). The sure-fire, “figured to be” prospects did nothing.
Chris Koch
How many Prospects traded away for these Rentals turn in to All-Stars for years?
Zac R.
Actually looking at the Brewers last few trades that include Greinke and CC, the prospects the other teams received haven’t done much. A majority of prospects never become what they’re hyped out to be.
Chris Koch
Here’s the problem with trading Nelson away for Rental of Lester. Unlike CC or Grienke, Lester provides ZERO compensation when he leaves via FA. The Brewers can’t offer him a QO. Grienke was for 2 full seasons of own not 2 months. CC should have netted the Brewers a top 25 draft pick but were screwed over by the Angels getting Trout for loss of Texiera. Well that pick that Trout went. You tell me how CC nets the 39th pick in compensation for loss of while Brian Shouse nets Milw the 47thpick? CC was the biggest FA loss in that FA and the Brewers got a 39th pick for it?
Back on topic. Lester is a 10-12 Starts rental with nothing else to get for him when he leaves for FA. There’s no comparing him to CC or Grienke because they at least got something back when they leave.
Lester isn’t worthy of Milw’s #1 prospect nor the names Pederson/Seager/Tavaras. And the reason why is because he gives the receiving team nothing back when he departs.
Patrick the Pragmatist
I think pretty much the entire package Montreal gave up to get Bartolo Colon did. Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Philips. Lee Stevens was also sent to Cleveland in that deal but he was a veteran not a prospect.
Chris Koch
Agreed. 10-12 Starts for 180starts. Makes no sense.
craigcounsellhitsbombs
Kershaw has a career 4.23 ERA in the postseason, Lohse has a 4.86. Garza? 3.48.
Greinke? 4.30.
The Dodgers aren’t an auto-win because they have a great 1-3 in their rotation. In a 7 game series, I’d put Lohse, Peralta, Nelson, and Garza up against anyone else in the majors.
Plus to win a World Series, you have to score runs. So far this season, the Dodgers and Brewers are basically neck and neck in every offensive category except 2: Home Runs and Runs Scored. Two categories that play a large part in winning games.
Both teams are going to get to October. At that point, it’s anyone’s Series to take.
Better
Lester turns the tide…who wants to go to the World Series more?
Mochi
Lester would at best be the Dodgers 3rd best pitcher. Dodgers are fine without him.
Better
He’d be their best postseason pitcher, which is the only reason you pick him up. No one is taking Greinke over Lester in game 7 of a LCS or WS. You’d find people (outside of Boston) that would even take him over Kershaw in that situation.
Mochi
Highly doubt you find somebody who isn’t a Red Sox fan that agrees to that. Kershaw is much better than Lester, it’s not even close.
not_brooks
I’m an Oriole fan. Dominated by Jon Lester for 20-some starts until my team rose from obscurity and scorn to take down the Red Sox in the final game of the 2011 season.
Clayton Kershaw is easily the best pitcher in the game right now, but I’d still take Lester over Kershaw in a Game 7, and here’s why:
Lester: 2.11 ERA in 76 postseason innings. 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in 21 World Series innings.
Kershaw: 4.38 ERA in 38 postseason innings. 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in 18 LCS innings.
Trock
I am a Red Sox fan as well as a Cubs fan. I think I take Kershaw. He doesn’t have good stats in the small sample size but the guy dominates every other start really. He will find a playoff form.
Better
But right now, that a risk not a given. Jon Lester in the playoffs is a given, not a risk. If you’re LA and you want to win this year (and ownership has said it’s a “must win” year) you do what you have to do to get Lester. That makes them the unquestionable favorite to come out of the NL.
JJLADfan
How will Lester pitch on another team, in a foreign clubhouse? It is all a risk.
Better
Kershaw is insane. If I have 162 games to play and I get to choose between the 2 I’m taking Kershaw every time but the fact is he has struggled in the playoffs and Lester is lights out in clutch situations. Given the choice of who starts game 7 of a playoff series, smart money is on Jon Lester. It’s not debatable right now. I guarantee the Dodgers are not 100% confident in Kershaw/Greinke in the playoffs.
Fangaffes
Well then by all means. Some team competing with the Dodgers should have him instead.
A-A-RON22
Holy small sample size of playoff stats. I have no idea why people overvalue playoff stats. I’d take Kershaw over ANY starter in the MLB in the regular season and playoffs
TheRealRyan 2
It really blows my mind too. Fans also seem to get very irrational with selective memory about the postseason. Two players below with similar postseason numbers, yet one is considered an all time clutch player, while the other is considered a complete choke artist.
Jeter .374/.465/.838 overall, .751 ALCS OPS, .832 WS OPS
Arod .369/.464/.833 overall, .981 ALCS OPS, .973 WS OPS
hediouspb
I would take Kershaw over lester too. of course the point here is to have them both so they can do what Johnson and schilling did to the Yankees all those years ago.
Zac R.
I hope you’re not a betting man.
Travis2014
You seem pretty confident they will make the postseason…have you watched the games lately? I’d say it is no for sure thing
craigcounsellhitsbombs
They’ve gone 5-3 since the break. Two of the losses were 2-0 and 2-1. The third was a blown save/three run homerun. That could have easily been a 7-0 homestand if Roenicke isn’t dumb and avoids pitching to Lucas Duda in the 9th or if Reynolds’ moonshot doesn’t hit off the stadium roof.
55 games left. Figure 86-ish wins makes the playoffs. That means they’d have to go 31-24 to finish the season. Yes. I’m very confident that can happen.
People act like that stretch before the break was representative of the whole season. They had a bad run of games. Every team has them. The sky isn’t falling in Milwaukee.
Travis2014
My judgement had nothing to do with the massive losing streak. But their inconsistencies will mean they won’t go that much over .500 the rest of the way and their schedule is brutal. I could easily see them miss out.
Also 31-24 is not that easy. It is a better winning percentage than they have now and their schedule has been fairly easy up to this point. not to mention 86 wins won’t win them the division.
craigcounsellhitsbombs
What inconsistencies? They’re in the top 10 in every offensive category, 12th in team ERA (behind 5 teams who aren’t even in the playoff picture so it can be argued that it’s not even a relevant stat), and are sitting 11 games over .500.
Their only consistent problem has been their manager’s bullpen management and bunt-calling.
Braun has 14 HR, 61 RBI, and is batting .294 in what’s easily the worst year of his career due to nagging injuries. If he can turn it on in the last two months, dear god. Same goes with Segura and Davis. Both of them slumped badly in the first few months but have heated up in the past 6 weeks.
Lohse is pitching like an ace. Peralta is starting to figure out how good he actually is. Garza turned it around after a terrible first month and a half.
I’m not saying they’re a shoe in, but looking at the injuries in St. Louis and Cinci, I’d say they’re the easy favorite.
oh Hal
What I’d say is that every team has a degree of inconsistency. They don’t seem that bad to me. If anything, I’d say they were resilient. I wouldn’t say they’re “easy” favorites though.
Chris Koch
Beating LA only matters if Brewers actually even face LA. They could face Atl then StL who beats LA and the Brewers never have to even blink at LA’s Pitching.
Peralta to me is better than both Lohse and Garza. His bad outings are of the dink/dunk can’t believe 5 straight batted balls in play that barely made it to the outfield found holes for hits.
Brewers need a 1b/OF platoon bat from the LH side far more than they need a what? .5run in 7innings improvement for 10-12starts. Look at why the Brewers aren’t winning in July. Runs scored. Not due to Starting Pitching.
TheRealRyan 2
I’m not saying that Brewers are all smoke and mirrors, but this team has been lucky, especially the SP. As a team, their ERA has outperformed their FIP by .35 runs and they have a BaBIP .025 points lower than the ML average for SP. Looking at Peralta specifically and his ERA is 0.69 runs better than his FIP to go with a BaBIP .013 points lower than the ML average. Counting on that kind of luck is risky and could become a pretty big problem when it regresses back to the norm.
Chris Koch
Did you really post concern of .013pts lower than ML avg? What is ML avg? How about looking up Lester’s numbers for me. Tell me where his BaBIP sits compared to avg?
Trying to pick on Peralta’s numbers is pretty crazy when he’s the team’s most talented pitcher. I’d worry more on Lohse or Gallardo’s numbers before worrying about Peralta’s.
I’m pretty sure you can nitpick every good starter and find numbers that don’t fit avg. What’s Kershaw’s FIP? and his BaBIP? How’s that fit to ML avg? Honestly, I mentioned somewhere else where in the games Peralta has given up his most runs, was a fact of LUCK going against him. Poorly hit groundballs that fell in to holes. Peralta is a GB pitcher so his numbers should be better than expectations. He’s going to induce more double plays getting out of more jams. Vs. allowing Flyballs/HRs. Maybe Lucroy’s Pitch Framing ability also helps in this luck you’re concerned about?
TheRealRyan 2
Your post brought up how the Brewers don’t need pitching and how Peralta is their best pitcher who has had some bad luck. I looked up the numbers and the truth is the opposite. Peralta has had good luck, not bad luck.
You also mention that he is a ground ball pitcher and that explains his good luck. However, the statistics show GB have a higher BaBIP than fly balls, so he should have even a higher BaBIP, not lower. Lucroy’s pitch framing should help improve their K and BB rates. Their BB rates are better than average, but their K rates are below average. Again, another reason to think they are outperforming expectations and getting lucky.
You can hold out hope that the Brewers will continue to out pitch their DIP stats and outperform their Pythagorean W/L, but I think they are due for some regression back to the average. I still think they can win their division and have a good chance at the playoffs. I just don’t see them in their current form being one of the top teams and a true WS contender.
CharlieMurphy
No one ever wants to give up their prospects, but giving up a 25 year old who’s started 5 games in the majors (and has fallen out of MLB’s top 50 prospects) for a proven, bonafide playoff ace is far from terrible. Prospects are never a sure thing, and guys like Lester don’t come often or easily… even if you’re just talking about a rental.
Remember a few years ago when people were comparing Tyler Thornburg to Tim Lincecum? Not saying Nelson can’t become a good starter, but that’s the risk a team like the Sox would be taking on.
Travis2014
Ok you have made two horribly false comments.
1. Jimmy Nelson was never in the Top 50 prospects…till now. He just recent moved from 86 to 38.
2. They compared Thornburgs delivery to Lincecum….not his potential.
CharlieMurphy
1. I was referring to MLB’s rankings, where he is currently just out of the top 50
2. Thornbug was the Brewers #2 prospect behind Peralta and Nelson was #19. My point is that it’s laughable to assume that giving up Nelson is “terrible” and not worth stabilizing their playoff rotation with a guy like Lester.
Travis2014
The way I see it Jimmy Nelson isn’t an Ace and never will be. I think he is expendable in the right deal. He isn’t a future difference maker, just a #3 starter type guy.
The Brewers can’t internally get an Ace so they have to make deals like this to get one. Just the unfortunate reality. If he was a true future top of the rotation starter my thoughts would be different.
CharlieMurphy
1. I was referring to MLB’s rankings, where he is currently just out of the top 50
2. Thornbug was the Brewers #2 prospect behind Peralta and Nelson was #19. My point is that it’s laughable to assume that giving up Nelson is “terrible” and not worth stabilizing their playoff rotation with a guy like Lester.
Chris Koch
Yeah he’s 25. He was drafted out of College. His issue was control. This season he’s cleaned up his control immensely, thus why as just below he’s moved from 86 to top 50 prospect ranking. His age is why it’s not higher. It’s not due to lack of stuff/talent.
oh Hal
They don’t need a RH reliever, Melvin will quote you endless stats on 1B to defend what he’s got and I’m not sure what people imagine can be traded for on the bench. Melvin will trade Nelson and more for a couple months if he gets the chance. Yeah, its a terrible idea.
Zac R.
The Sox would be better off just keeping him. Unless you getting Seager or Bundy (who would not be included because of Lester’s contract) why would the sox make the trade? Prospects are just prospects. Most of them become over-hyped and don’t come close to expectations. The Sox have one of the best prospects in the game in Bogaerts and I’m still on the fence on whether or not be’ll become an all-star type player. Pony up the cash you have and resign Lester because I’d rather have him then another over-hyped prospect unless you plan on using that to acquire someone like Stanton.
Better
Seems like they’re plan is to trade him in a deal that lands them a top prospect and then resign him in the offseason. No guarantees, but if it happens it’s a great day for the Sox GM.
Zac R.
Yeah but if Lester hits Free Agency and the Yankees get involved, the sox are in trouble.
vlock1
This is what I keep thinking, and it horrifies me.
Chris Koch
The Sox if they lose Lester via FA will at least get a comp pick. while Yankees lose their 1st rd pick.
Or I’m guessing you’re talking his FA pricetag? Well if Lester is traded away guess what? He’s still becoming a FA and that pricetag doesn’t change. Sox aren’t in trouble. The teams acquiring Lester are.
Better
Agreed. The Red Sox have an equal or better shot at signing him as anyone else. I’m not sure where people got the idea that there is some type of rift between Lester and Red Sox mgmt. There isn’t.
daveineg
Nelson was the most dominant starter in all of AAA this season. He throws 94-97 with sink. You are grossly undervaluing him. Hasn’t Lester said he’d consider signing with Boston as a FA too? Brewers would be fools to deal him for Lester.
Zac R.
Yes he seems like a good player just like any other highly ranked prospect/rookie. A dominant season in AAA doesn’t guarantee big league success. I’d rather keep Lester and have the chance of resigning him before the Yanks get involved then trading him for something that’s unproven. Lester is a proven MLB pitcher with 2 WS Rings. If he hits the open market, I don’t see him coming back to the Sox. Money talks and if a team like the Yankees offers more years and money, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he took it.
Chris Koch
As stated above. You can get something for losing Lester. Any other team but Boston will be losing something to get Lester.
Nelson alone would be a heckuva return vs. relying on your chances of a 27-32ish Draft Comp. It’s great to argue against Prospects like 100% of them flameout. Lester was a Prospect himself at some point. They do succeed many times over. Nelson has a lot going for him. He appears at worst an innings eating #3 for a team. At best a dominant #2.
Zac R.
Yes he seems like a good player just like any other highly ranked prospect/rookie. A dominant season in AAA doesn’t guarantee big league success. I’d rather keep Lester and have the chance of resigning him before the Yanks get involved then trading him for something that’s unproven. Lester is a proven MLB pitcher with 2 WS Rings. If he hits the open market, I don’t see him coming back to the Sox. Money talks and if a team like the Yankees offers more years and money, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he took it.
David 31
As a Cardinals fan, I am fine with Milwaukee throwing more prospects away for rentals. It only means they’ll be in the cellar again for three years. It seems to be the pattern they follow. Why aren’t they looking for a 1B?
Zac R.
That last time they traded for a lefty (CC), they gave away Matt Laporta, Brantley, Bryson, and Zach Jackson to Cleveland. None of these so called big prospects at the time helped Cleveland. CC on the other hand was dominant for the Brewers and helped them make the playoffs.
daveineg
Zach Jackson wasn’t close to a big time prospect. He was a marginal prospect at best who had struggled big time in the big leagues in trials with the Brewers. Bryson wasn’t a prospect either. Brantley was maybe 8 or 10 on the Brewer prospect list but was in A ball. LaPorta was the big time prospect in the deal but he was expendable because the Brewers had Fielder.
oh Hal
I wouldn’t use that as a rationalization to trade prospects. What would be your response if the 3 or 4 players it takes to get Lester all turn into major leaguers with an all star or 2? Is it “oh well” we had a shot and lost so its worth it?
Zac R.
We could do what ifs all day. What if the sox trade Lester to the Brewers and they win the world series. What if the prospects acquired by the sox are busts. What if the Brewers keep their prospects and they turn out to be nothing. What if the Brewers don’t acquire Lester and make the playoffs but they just don’t have the pitching to compete. If the Brewers think they have a good shot to win now and have a deep farm system than Lester would be a great pick up. It’d bring in a #1 starter without emptying the farm because it was deep to begin with. If they don’t then they shouldn’t acquire him enough said. The sox gambled on some prospects this year instead of veterans and it turned out to bite them in you know where. Every team is different.
daveineg
You need to check your history David. Brewers haven’t been in the cellar since 2004. If they win the division this year, they’ll have 2 division titles in the last 4 years, one more than the Cardinals. Their first baseman leads the team in HR playing only 70% of the time the their team is 2nd in runs scored.
David 31
You missed my point:
Made a trade for Sabathia – cellar in 2009 and 2010.
Made a trade for Greinke and Marcum – cellar in 2012 and 2013.
But I have to argue with your 2004 comment. They didn’t make any waves until 2007.
A-A-RON22
2013 was just a bad season. Hart out all year, Ramirez out for a long time, Braun suspension, pitchers weren’t producing. The team played MUCH better in the second half. 2012 and 2013 had nothing to do with those trades. Who that we traded away would have saved us?
Now… that said, the Brewers need to go after a FULL time first baseman, sure Reynolds has power, but besides defense he hasnt been very great, he should be a bench player. Overbay should be gone, but he wont because hes a “clubhouse guy”. I would love to trade for Napoli AND Lester. That to me would be worth Jimmy Nelson and a solid prospect. I wouldnt trade Nelson for Lester straight up, because Lester will only get maybe 11 starts this year, and if we miss the playoffs it would blowup in our face. Especially since starting should be our last concern now. Our bench is terrible, and we could also use a solid RHP out of the bullpen. I wish Henderson would have came back a week ago so we at least get an idea of where hes at.
Sage
Your point would almost be valid if you weren’t using the word cellar. Cellar means a team that is dead last, a la the Cubs. The Brewers, on the other hand, since 2009, have finished 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 4th respectively. So, we make big trades that put us in the postseason, and then we have okay-to-mediocre seasons for a year or two after it. Oh my, how horrible.
AaronAngst
Moreover, since Attanasio became the owner in 2005, Milwaukee is a better than .500 club, and second only to the Cardinals in the NL Central. They haven’t been a real cellar dweller in a decade.
oh Hal
I think its an awful strategy myself and I’m a Brewers fan and will even point out many good things that Melvin does. I’m sick of it.
oh Hal
I think its an awful strategy myself and I’m a Brewers fan and will even point out many good things that Melvin does. I’m sick of it.
David 31
How about “missed the playoffs”. Which happened once again last year.
craigcounsellhitsbombs
Funny enough, with all the guys we’ve traded in the last 6 years, the only players that have panned out have been Brantley, Escobar, Odiorizzi, and Cain. (We got Jeffress back for nothing so I’m not counting him). Factor in that we got 2 plus pitching prospects and an All-Star shortstop back for Greinke and I’d call it a wash after making the playoffs twice.
What “cellar” are you referring going back to? Unless you’re talking about the early 2000’s before Mark A really got going.
David 31
Those are four players that could be on your roster. Not to mention they could have been saved to trade for other players, etc. Whenever the Crew makes a big move they lose potential future players and trade pieces.
And the cellar reference? I’m talking about the losing seasons you had in 2009,2010,2012,2013, lol. All after a season in which major trades occured.
craigcounsellhitsbombs
Current outfield of Gomez, Braun, and Davis. Where would Brantley fit? Cain?
I’d much rather have Segura at short than Escobar. Same goes with Peralta/Nelson over Jake O.
I realize we had losing seasons. My definition of “cellar” is being completely out of the division race by the All-Star break and finishing dead last. This happened in none of those years. In fact, two of the years you mentioned, we had half our lineup our with injuries, and another, we missed the wild card spot by what? A game and a half?
I would much rather have made the playoffs twice in 6 years than have been consistently alright for those years and still have roughly the same roster. (3 times in 7 years if you count this season)
“Whenever a team makes a trade, they lose potential future players and trade pieces”. Thank you for clearing that up for me, by the way. I didn’t realize that was how trades worked.
daveineg
Brewers would be foolish to deal Nelson for a rental of Lester. Sure, Lester gives them a better chance in the postseason, but even with him it’s no sure thing they’d beat the Dodgers. From Boston’s perspective they’d have Nelson then they’d re-sign Lester. That would be a no-brainer for them.
Travis2014
I do agree I don’t like the idea of trading for Lester. It has little upside in my opinion. David Price makes sense only in the fact at least we can make another run next year.
Jim McGrath 2
Napoli to the Brewers for someone with value. Nap is signed through 2015.
Travis2014
I don’t see it. They won’t trade Jimmy Nelson for Napoli and I don’t think Tyrone Taylor is really the prospect that is going to catch the Red Sox’s eyes.
oh Hal
I’d guess that Boston would do Napoli for Taylor in an instant.
Dr. Balloons
You are probably guessing wrong.
oh Hal
It would be a big overpay. If you’re arguing that Cherington isn’t very good, I really don’t know enough to say.
Dr. Balloons
A decent outfield prospect in high A is not an overpay for a year plus of a quality starting MLB first baseman with right handed power. Taylor is a totally decent prospect and if Napoli was a free agent and the sox did not intend to resign him then you could be onto something. But they want to keep Nap for next year. They have no right handed power as it is.
oh Hal
Well, I would argue he’s better than decent.
oh Hal
It would be a big overpay. If you’re arguing that Cherington isn’t very good, I really don’t know enough to say.
Dr. Balloons
sox intend to contend next year and they don’t have enough power as it is. I really doubt they have any interest in trading Napoli.
Jim McGrath 2
I see Lester, Miller and/ or Lackey being dealt by the deadline to the Pirates, Braves, Nat’s, Dodgers, A’s, Tigers, Mariners, Giants—is that enough targets?? Not to O’s, Jay’s or Yankees. Definitely not the Rays.
Alonzo
I don’t think the Sox would bite if Nelson was the centerpiece of a Lester-deal. We’ve got prospects with similar upside, i.e. Webster (groundball putcher, heavy sinker) and Owens, who actually has a higher ceiling IMO.
So Ben would either want a clear cut “ace-ceiling” prospect – which he won’t get for Lester – or he goes the OF/offense/power route. That’s why Pederson makes lot of sense.
Chris Koch
You don’t trade “ace-ceiling” prospects for a rental! Who does that? Name me a trade where a team sent an “Ace-ceiling SP prospect” for a rental SP that year?
MeowMeow
If Ben is able to play the Dodgers, Orioles, Brewers and whoever else off each other with regards to our tradeable pitchers, this COULD end up being very nice…
Matt_P102
Royals are the sleeper if your team is willing to eat Lester’s contract. You may be able to get Mondesi and Almonte plus a few C+/C prospects for Lester and Miller.
DarthMurph
I’m tired of this. Give Lester 6/120 and be done with this Boston. None of this “he’ll come back,” just sign him now. There’s no reason to give up on 2015.
northsfbay
It is unknown what Lester’s salary demands are. He may want to test the market.
DarthMurph
True, but it doesn’t appear like Boston is trying particularly hard to get him to stay. There hasn’t been a formal number discussed since 4/70. If he wants to tell the media that his preference is here, try to see if he means that.
bobbleheadguru
Agree. They need to trade him now, and assume that he is not coming back.
Tigers WILL give him the Scherzer deal (that Scherzer rejected) if he hits the open market… that is just one team.
Mikenmn
Maybe they aren’t. Five-six year deal leaves them with an older pitcher at the back end. I don’t see management thinking that’s worthwhile
Dr. Balloons
I honestly don’t think Boston has any real interest in signing Lester to what he will require. If it was two or three years at an overpay they would do it. But they are so terrified of long term deals now that it seems to me from their reported actions that they only want to seem interested in Lester for publicity’s sake. In fact they intend to let some other team give him a huge offer this off season and say “well we tried but they just made a crazy offer.” So although i wish Lester would stay I feel as if he is already gone, may as well trade him for what they can get.
bobbleheadguru
I completely agree. It is baffling to me why the Red Sox want to play games here. Prospects are not worth losing Lester over.
Maybe your prediction will come true before the deadline (6/120). Seems fair to both sides… a moderate, but not huge hometown discount.
However, if they do not get is done this week, then Lester is very likely gone after the season (he will almost certainly get a 7th year and/or more AAV). Red Sox do not seem inclined to overpay.
That is what makes this situation so fascinating to me. Lester should be signed (1st choice), traded (2nd choice)… but do NOT expect to sign him after the season.
Jbruns318
The fact that Boston is now a bargain hunting team is what truly baffles me. Why on earth are they acting like they are some small market team that isn’t able to pay ITS OWN PLAYERS. Pay the man, you have the money.
Bleed_Orange
It’s because they don’t want to look like the Yankees again. LAD did them a HUGE favor by ridding them of their inflated contracts. They don’t want to have a team full of players in their late 30s getting paid 15+ million. Now that the steroids era is over more often than not players just aren’t worth that.
MeowMeow
Fares for the T just went up from $2.00 to $2.10, times are tough in Boston! D:
Better
How’s that CC contract working out for NYY these days? Arod? Tex? Jeter?
We’ll wait a few years before we bring Ellsbury into that discussion but it’s coming…
Kloob Teefis
I have no stake in any of these teams, but I’m pretty sure those contracts are working out fine.
They got a ton of value out of all of those guys, and they simply don’t care when they’re at the tail end of bloated contracts because money is almost a non-factor for them. Did A-Rod’s insanely huge contract stop them from signing Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann in one offseason?
Better
My point is the Red Sox have more resources than most but not even close to the Yankees. They cannot afford to take on those numbers for players who don’t perform.
VAR
The Red Sox have about 80 million committed to next year. They can take on 6 years of Lester with no problem whatsoever.
Better
I know that but if Lester isn’t as productive as he is now in years 5 and 6 that’s a much bigger problem for Boston than say the current CC situation is for NYY. NYY can afford to get nothing out of a guy making $20+mil a year, Boston can’t.
VAR
Yes they can, and have. The Red Sox typically go right up to the edge of the salary cap. That’s 189 million dollars in salary next year. They also have a farm system, which means they can infuse talent into the starting lineup that makes the major league minimum. At least two of next years starting pitchers will make the minimum. They don’t run their team the way the Yankees do, but having one player making 20 million and not earning their keep won’t be too much of a burden to bear. They’re not paupers. And it will likely be more than 20 million. They made 25 million in profit last year. They only have one player on the current roster signed passed 2017. It’s not like they’d be handcuffed by multiple long salaries.
Better
I get what you’re saying but they need to spend on a bat. Once Ortiz is done that line up will look pathetic and I don’t believe they have a bat in their system that can anchor a playoff caliber line up.
VAR
Signing Lester in no way prevents them from getting a bat. There is 100 million in payroll available to them next year. They can sign Lester for 25 million/year, sign a bat for 25 million per year, and still have 50 left to meet other obligations. They have one of the biggest payrolls in the majors, and are looking at having Bogaerts, JBJ, Holt, Vazquez, De La Rosa, Workman, and probably one or two more guys making the major league minimum or very close to it. This team has a ton of payroll flexibility.
Better
In any event I still think they can trade him and resign him in the offseason. I’m confident they’ll make him a reasonable offer and I’m also confident that he wants to play his career out in Boston. I don’t see him as the Ellsbury type. Ellsbury was out of Boston years before he was a free agent, the only surprising thing was who he signed with. I always heard he wanted to go west.
VAR
You can’t have your cake and eat it too. And Ellsbury was never offered fair market value by the Red Sox. Neither was Damon, Jason Bay, or Pedro Martinez. The Red Sox are a large market team that behaves like a small market team. For some reason this time I though they would make him a fair and reasonable offer. If they trade him they lose the right to negotiate with him exclusively and they will be outbid on the open market, just as they are for pretty much everyone. Unless you include Carl Crawford. They “won” that one.
Better
BTW, during which playoff run did the Red Sox have a player with a major decline in skill on their roster making $20mil+ a year?
MB923
2011, Carl Crawford? (He doesn’t even have a 2 WAR season since he left Tampa)
mantistoboggan47
They would rather appear smart than be good.
VAR
Sadly, I would have to agree with you. They are happy to be the “smartest” guys in the room even if it means they lose some really important talent.
Sal C.
“smart”=3 World Series wins in 10 years, plus a loaded minor league system. As far as paying their players, they gave Pedroia that big extension recently. They place value on each player and move on from the ones that would be an albatross in their final years. That means that they might give up on a couple of productive years from players like Damon, Pedro, Ellsbury…they have their focus on the back end of the deal. I thought it was clear that when they made the Crawford/Gonzalez/Becket deal that they all breathed a major sigh of relief, won another world series, and privately vowed never to put themselves over a barrel like that again.
mantistoboggan47
Content to play math ball and stumble into 1 or 2 championships a decade, never building a true dynasty. Going from first to worst is for the marlins not the red sox.
Sal C.
As opposed to always overpaying for every hyped free agent and not being able to build a true dynasty due to bloated long-term contracts like the Yankees? Dynasties don’t come easy these days so I wouldn’t be too concerned about keeping up with the Joneses just to appease the local media. I live in NYC and I see how often these moves are made just to keep the team on the back page of the Post in the winter time. It’s a bizarre system of pandering to the local media and fair-weather fans.
Sal C.
As opposed to always overpaying for every hyped free agent and not being able to build a true dynasty due to bloated long-term contracts like the Yankees? Dynasties don’t come easy these days so I wouldn’t be too concerned about keeping up with the Joneses just to appease the local media. I live in NYC and I see how often these moves are made just to keep the team on the back page of the Post in the winter time. It’s a bizarre system of pandering to the local media and fair-weather fans.
VAR
They signed Pedroia at below market before Cano could set the market. “Smart.” Except for the part where Pedroia is an average offensive player this year, and now he’s here until 2021. They outsmarted themselves there. You forgot the basement in 2 of the last 3 years. And Damon was very productive for the entire extent of his contract with the Yankees. Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre have also been extremely productive and more than worth the deals they received. There is a difference between signing multiple players to 7 year deals and signing one pitcher, currently at the top of his game, who you homegrew, who has won you two World Series, to a market value deal. It won’t put you over a barrel. It’s one deal. The only player they have signed past 2017 right now is Pedroia. How does having 2 long term deals and a ton of youth coming up from the farm put you over a barrel?
Sal C.
Please calm down. Maybe they should go back to the Harrington/Duquette years. Only that would satisfy some of the Boston fans that don’t appreciate what the new ownership group has done since 2002. That’s the part that floors me. Boston fans actually deserve to go back to the days before a playoff appearance was a distant improbability. I’d rather win 3 World Series in 10 years with two years in the basement than to be eternally mediocre but judging from what I’ve seen around here that’s exactly would some would prefer to go back to.
VAR
Sadly, I would have to agree with you. They are happy to be the “smartest” guys in the room even if it means they lose some really important talent.
CharlieMurphy
Lester is not CC. He’s never had weight or injury issues. Arod Tex and Jeter are all poor examples, too, because everyone knew the back end of those contracts would be horrible.
Since when is 30 so old for a pitcher? Giving a guy like Lester a 6 year deal is about a risk-free as a blue-chip free agent signing can get. Maybe the last year or two won’t go great, but that’s the sacrifice you have to make these days to get stars on the open market.
Trock
Good points made here. A lot of the guys who are late 20 / early 30’s who are still great at their position, are going to command a long term deal. They know they will be paying for it later on in the contract.
However, the Yankee’s players are not bad examples. It almost ends up not being worth the contract because yea they probably perform compared to their salary the first half of the contract, but drop off to where they are being paid like an allstar when your play has dropped off tremendously.
JacobyWanKenobi
CC and Tex’s contracts got NY a world series ring and a few very good years from each. Derek Jeter is one of the best baseball players of our lifetime, so there’s that.
You always overpay for the later years to get the prime years, that’s how it works.
Sal C.
I don’t believe in the phrase “small market” but I do understand that some ownership groups are more intelligent than others in how they spend their money long-term. That’s why the Sox were ready to let Theo go without even pretending to care because he was signing guys like Carl Crawford to insane long-term deals that are not in line with the ownership’s philosophy of contract valuation. Remember, they wouldn’t go to 4 years with Pedro and it is sticking to that type of philosophy that has won them 3 W.S. in 10 years. Being able to overpay and deciding to make an emotional decision to retain an older pitcher on an overpay contract for the next 6 years is something that they would rather not do. Anything is possible but it seems like they have valued Lester’s future production and that it’s a lot less than what his agent is demanding.
Bleed_Orange
This move by Boston is making me think that they don’t think they have a change of competing for him on the open market. Ownership is probably a bit gun shy of giving out monster contracts to players in their 30s and Lester is going to get Greinke like money. Lester is wearing a new cap come November.
bobbleheadguru
Then go ahead and trade him now.
S710b
Thank you. Nobody seems to agree with me on here that the Red Sox FO is being ridiculous.
Sal C.
Their FO works in mysterious ways. Actually, not so mysterious. They place a value on each player and they avoid contracts that will become an albatross in the final few years (like C.C.’s). It’s really that simple. I was actually wondering if they knew of some sort of medical issue that might make a long-term deal a bad idea for Lester.
ugotrpk3113
Have you seen this team? What gives you any impression they will contend next year?
Again, last year was a complete fluke. They were probably a 82-85 win team. This year they lost pieces and are obviously worse for it.
DarthMurph
Have you seen the division? The Sox can definitely contend next year with all their spare payroll and potential trade chips.
Last year was not a fluke. They had plenty of players play up to their full potential. That’s pretty much a given for any WS team.
DarthMurph
Have you seen the division? The Sox can definitely contend next year with all their spare payroll and potential trade chips.
Last year was not a fluke. They had plenty of players play up to their full potential. That’s pretty much a given for any WS team.
ugotrpk3113
Blue Jays and Orioles are both young and talented and will be another year along. Yankees are still the Yankees. This division is still challenging to the Red Sox (if it’s not good).
I’m not sure how you see 2012 and 2014 and not think 2013 was a fluke. Especially when they are on paper worse this year than last year and even in 2012.
DarthMurph
The Blue Jays are not really that young at all. They have some impressive young arms, but their core is old. The division is certainly winnable.
2012 was a disaster of a year filled with injury and Bobby Valentine. This year has been similarly disappointing, but it’s not like the ship can’t be righted.
ugotrpk3113
Agreed. I just don’t think 2015 is the year. It’s going to take probably 2-3 years to be a legit WS contender again. Ortiz, Napoli, and Victorino all gone next year. Lackey and presumably Koji also. And they have a ton of holes.
RooneyTunes
I’m not sure if you meant after 2015, but all the guys you listed, save for Koji, have either guaranteed or option years with the team for 2015.
ugotrpk3113
Correct. I’m saying next year they’ll be mediocre again and then the flood gates open.
Jim Johnson
Is the AL East bad?
ugotrpk3113
Have you seen this team? What gives you any impression they will contend next year?
Again, last year was a complete fluke. They were probably a 82-85 win team. This year they lost pieces and are obviously worse for it.
Better
In my opinion, the O’s have to take advantage of off years by NYY, BOS and TB. Cruz isn’t there for “the long haul” and he’s a big reason for the teams turnaround.
Bleed_Orange
Cruz has been very mediocre sense before the All Star break, Davis and Hardy have been meh and Weiters hasn’t played this year. Those are the only 4 players the O’s don’t have locked up for an extended period of time. NY is going to have transition issues due to inflated contracts and aging players, Tampa is always going to have issues due to payroll restrictions (and losing Price) and Boston looks like a dumpster fire right now (though they do have some very intriguing prospects moving through their system) all in all I think the O’s are set for a little while without gutting the system for a rental.
Better
I just think this is the year for a small market AL team to win the WS…unless LAD picks up Lester, then we might as well hand them the trophy now. I think that you do what needs to be done when a window opens for you, especially for a team that doesn’t get this window very often. The window is always going to be open for the Yanks, Sox, Tigers Angels etc….not so much for the A’s and O’s of the world.
Bleed_Orange
I agree and disagree. Windows won’t always be open for big markets teams (Cubbies say hi) and though the window won’t always be open for mid market teams it also is smart for teams to prolong their competitiveness for as long as possible. That is done by holding onto young cost controlled players. I think the Brewers are a good example of teams who go all in are fantastic for a year then are subpar for a few years.
Better
That’s a good point that I can’t completely disagree with but I would add the Cubs are an anomaly. I’m a Red Sox fan and I would love to see the O’s win a WS this year but with the current roster I just don’t see it happening. A veteran SP that has excelled in the post season would do those young kids wonders for the future and give the team a great shot at winning this year.
Bleed_Orange
I agree and disagree. Windows won’t always be open for big markets teams (Cubbies say hi) and though the window won’t always be open for mid market teams it also is smart for teams to prolong their competitiveness for as long as possible. That is done by holding onto young cost controlled players. I think the Brewers are a good example of teams who go all in are fantastic for a year then are subpar for a few years.
basemonkey
The Os have been turned around long before Cruz. The turnaround with the current nucleus started in 2012.
Better
I’m not trying to be a jerk but the Rays had better young talent and have yet to win a WS. No one is winning a WS without a top tier, #1 ace. The Rays have one and still didn’t win a WS.
daveineg
Ok Boston fans. Here’s your offer for Lester: Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo is currently sporting a 5-5 record, ERA of 3.57 and WHIP of 1.22. Gallardo has a $13 million team option for 2015.
Why the Brewers would make this deal: Lester is a true ace who offers Brewers better 2014 postseason odds. Gallardo, while still a solid mid-rotation guy, is only under their control one more year and won’t likely be retained after 2015 anyway. Brewers are confident Nelson can give them what Gallardo would the rest of this year anyway.
Why this deal makes sense for Red Sox. Boston is a team that retools rather than rebuilds. They will look to win in 2015. Gallardo is still under 30, and a quality pitcher that eats innings. He’d fit nicely in Boston’s rotation for next year at a relatively modest price. Boston will still be able to bid to bring Lester back next year. They’d be giving up their ace in a lost season for a solid starter for next year without damaging their chances of re-signing that ace going forward.
bobbleheadguru
Porcello would work better if that was their strategy. Porcello is only 25 and has 73 career wins. That total is very rare at such a young age. He is a ground ball pitcher that would work with Boston’s solid infield defense (and small Fenway dimensions).
daveineg
From Boston’s perspective sure. But Detroit isn’t as motivated to find an ace (they have one current and one past) as the Brewers are and they don’t have a guy like Nelson who’d be capable of matching what Porcello is giving them. Gallardo is pitching in Miller Park…that’s no pitchers part either and he’s become much more a ground ball pitcher the last couple seasons.
bobbleheadguru
1. Lester > Porcello in terms of “big game” postseason pitchers … as of right now. He is also a lefty. The other three playoff starters are righty.
2. Hard to assume that Verlander will be “THE Verlander” at this point.
Make Verlander the #4 and you have:
Scherzer/Lester/Sanchez/Verlander.
Depending on the “weak link” Verlander, that postseason rotation could be historically awesome.
3. Porcello only has one more year left. He will be a free agent after 2015. Tigers would be making a “win now gamble”… 1 year and 2 months of Porcello for 2 months of Lester (plus post season).
Better
Kershaw/Lester/Greinke/_______ would be amazing too
Better
Kershaw/Lester/Greinke/_______ would be amazing too
Zac R.
Depends on whether the Sox think they can resign Lester or not. If they believe he’ll be out of their price range than a trade for Gallardo wouldn’t be smart. They have guys in AAA that are probably going to provide around the same type of value as Gallardo. They’d be better off letting him hit free agency, see where the bidding goes and get a draft pick or get prospects in return if they traded him to a team like LA.
daveineg
Wait a minute, on one hand Boston fans are saying Nelson’s not enough because he’s a “prospect” and on the other they are saying they already have guys at AAA capable of a sub 4 ERA and 200 innings? You really see the Red Sox not going after a top of the rotation arm? Remember if Lester doesn’t return, they have to replace his innings and Peavy’s. Gallardo figures to be an upgrade over Peavy.
Better
I’m an upgrade over Peavy!
Zac R.
So lets trade our ace for a guy who’s just an upgrade over Peavy? Peavy is a #4-5 starter. Gallardo is a #4 with chances of being a #3. We’d be better off trying to resign Lester before he hits free agency. If he hits free agency, Lester is gone and we’re left with no compensation draft pick and a guy who’s an average middle of the rotation starter who has never pitched a full season in the AL. Why Nelson may not be enough is because you said it below, he’s not projected to be an ace like Lester. Possibly a good #2 or #3 starter. The reason I brought up our prospects in AAA is because they’re not viewed as aces but can be decent middle of the rotation guys. One of the reasons we got rid of Peavy was because we wanted to bring some of them up. Bringing in Gallardo wouldn’t solve any needs because it leaves us without an ace, and also blocks guys in AAA from trying to take the #3-5 spots.
Travis2014
So first you make a horrible trade recommendation and then you think Jimmy Nelson will end the year with a sub 4 ERA? He is a rookie and looks scared every time he pitches. Days he isn’t getting ground balls he will singlehandedly get rocked and lose the Brewers the game. Jimmy Nelson is going to be great, but it is going to take him a couple years. He will flash his potential here and there but watch out for all the bad outings.
Travis2014
Here is where I am most lost.
You just said Jimmy Nelson can have the same numbers as Gallardo the rest of the year(and obviously in future seasons), but the Red Sox will want Gallardo so they can have a quick turnaround…Yup, I am totally not getting this.
Headshaker
The Cardinals are like Lebron James in this-they have by far the most value to offer and if and when they make a move the dominoes will fall. Personally I think if they are going to pay pay for Hamels or Price, and not a rental.
I can’t imagine there is anything the Dodgers would give up Pederson for if his name is not David Price.
Rally Weimaraner
Of course the Sox wont trade with the Yankees, the only thing worse than missing the postseason in Boston is watching the Yankees play in October.
Better
I don’t think the Yankees have much to offer, do they?
Scott Berlin
He’s a 2 month rental.
Rally Weimaraner
Boston is still rightfully asking for an elite prospect in return. A rental ace, despite being expensive, can make a big difference in October.
Scott Berlin
I’m not saying that but you can’t call for a whole teams farm for a 2 month rental. If Boston is demanding multiple top 100 prospects for a guy that has said out loud he wants to return to Boston then they would be crazy. Especially considering a team would have to outbid Boston by tens of millions just for him to consider staying. The teams with multiple top 100 prospects wont trade crazy talent for a 2 month rental since they need that cheap cost controlled talent for years to come but if they trade it, they would want a guy who has more control then just 2 months. I doubt Lester gets a haul.
Better
I think LAD would. With Greinke’s opt-out coming closer they need to win.
northsfbay
Do you have inside information?
Better
He can opt-out after next season. I believe that’s public knowledge.
northsfbay
I was talking about the Dodgers trading their best prospects.
Better
I do not but from all the info I’ve read they seem hell bent on doing what it takes to win this year. Not saying they’ll do it but if anyone “overpays” for Lester in a trade I’d put my money on the Dodgers being that team.
northsfbay
Do you have inside information?
Trock
Everyone says that this player won’t get a haul, but we see it every year. Some GM is dumb enough to give up a package that is way too much of an overpay for a rental. Why do you think it stops this year? That is like saying GM’s will stop giving out 25m+ a year to guys who arent really worth it. You know that is a false statement.
Scott Berlin
I agree with all you said but in those cases the player never publicly declared he wanted to return to the team that traded him before any transactions occured. But as you have seen in some recent examples (RA DIckey) teams want to negotiate an extension before the trade is agreed upon.
Scott Berlin
Difference is those players didn’t publicly declare that they want to return to the team that traded them in the offseason. I’m sure most of those teams who received traded players had some hope of retaining them.
Trock
Everyone says that this player won’t get a haul, but we see it every year. Some GM is dumb enough to give up a package that is way too much of an overpay for a rental. Why do you think it stops this year? That is like saying GM’s will stop giving out 25m+ a year to guys who arent really worth it. You know that is a false statement.
Rally Weimaraner
Boston is still rightfully asking for an elite prospect in return. A rental ace, despite being expensive, can make a big difference in October.
Better
One that greatly increases a contenders chance of a deep playoff run.
Rally Weimaraner
For starters Severino would certainly interest the Sox, the Yankee’s system is not as barren as people claim it is.
Kloob Teefis
They have a few nice pieces, but the most important thing is how far away the good ones are.
Compare that to guys like Pederson, Taveras, etc. who are borderline (or actually) major-league ready, which is what the Red Sox want as a team who expects to compete next year.
Rally Weimaraner
True but I really dont think they will land a top 20 prospect like Pederson, Taveras or Seager. Someone like Steven Piscotty (#49, OF, Cardinals) or Hunter Harvey (#31, RHP, Orioles) seem like more realistic targets to me.
Kloob Teefis
I think you might be surprised. It’s anyone’s guess, but we’ve seen these trades before and given the market I could easily see that happening.
Especially if the Red Sox make it Cubs-esque and ship Miller in the same deal, returning 1 blue chip and some decent filler.
Better
I think come Thursday teams will be desperate to land a top SP and even more desperate to make sure a competitor doesn’t
tff17
If they can’t land a top-20 guy, then I’d hold Lester and try to get him resigned.
Rally Weimaraner
True but I really dont think they will land a top 20 prospect like Pederson, Taveras or Seager. Someone like Steven Piscotty (#49, OF, Cardinals) or Hunter Harvey (#31, RHP, Orioles) seem like more realistic targets to me.
Better
Bleacher report has it ranked # 21, I am surprised they’re that high. Still, Ben would probably be hunted down if he sends Lester to the Yankees for anything less than a major overpayment by NYY
Rally Weimaraner
Just because a farm system is ranked in the 20’s doesn’t mean it has no good pieces.
Better
I know I was just checking it out and was surprised at where it was ranked.
Better
I don’t think the Yankees have much to offer, do they?
MeowMeow
“Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.”
Yes, because both ownership and Ben Cherington are appropriately fearful of torch-wielding villagers marching down Boylston St. for their heads if they did that.
Scott Thorn
Yup. That and the fact that the Yankees don’t have an elite-level prospect.
The Original Drew
Well that isn’t true at all. Servino and Sanchez are top 100 prospects already, possibly top 50 by the end of the year.
Dr. Balloons
Sanchez’s value is dropping and Severino is too far away and his status is based on too small a sample size to be able to compete with some of the other elite prospects being mentioned. Plus the Yankees would have to pay much more than any other team to make a deal with the Sox. I like Sev as a prospect but I think the Sox can do better for the centerpiece in a Lester deal.
tff17
In this context, “elite” means top 20. Not sure either ranks that high, and the Red Sox have catcher well covered.
The Original Drew
Well then top 20 right now would be a no on both. I would like to see where both of them end up at the end of the year. Both having great years minus the disciplinary issues Sanchez has had.
mantistoboggan47
Do you think one elite-level prospect for a 2 month rental is what they are going for? I think I’d go for quantity over quality. These elite prospects go nowhere most of the time.
mantistoboggan47
Do you think one elite-level prospect for a 2 month rental is what they are going for? I think I’d go for quantity over quality. These elite prospects go nowhere most of the time.
S710b
I can’t believe it’s come to this with Lester. I’ve lost so much respect for the Red Sox. Pay your ace. You’re not a small market team.
northsfbay
Giving big contract to a pitcher is a big gamble. Pitchers break.
S710b
Obviously, but that’s just how the MLB free agency system works. By the time a high caliber pitcher becomes a free agent, they’re going to be overpaid, especially considering the risk. The Red Sox don’t have any back-breaking contracts and only have one long-term one (Pedroia). They can afford to pay Lester, both in terms of dollars and risk.
VAR
Everything you are saying is exactly what Red Sox fans are thinking. And it’s all true. Don’t own a baseball team if you’re not willing to take the risks to resign your players.
d-blaqueqq
It’s not your money so that’s easy to say.
S710b
Please, the Red Sox have the money. They’re being ridiculous. If you don’t want to spend your money on the players you need to win, then don’t own a baseball team. This will be their fourth major player they let walk from the 2013 championship team without adequately replacing them. They’re not the Rays. They’re ridiculously wealthy, just cheap.
Eric Foley
Why is it interesting that the Sox won’t trade him to the Yanks??? That would be fan base suicide!
jb226 2
Why do you care that much? As a Cubs fan I wouldn’t have any trouble trading a rental pitcher to, say, the Cardinals even if they ultimately won the World Series, if that was the best package I could get for him.
Now, it would be different if he weren’t a rental and I’m not saying the Yankees have the prospect package that Boston is apparently looking for. It just doesn’t make much sense to me to get that worked up about where Lester pitches for two months.
Edit: That said, I might be upset that he’s being traded AT ALL and the impact it might have on retaining him next year…
VAR
The fan base would be upset for several reasons, not the least of which is you’d be helping the Yankees chase another championship, you’d be providing them an exclusive window to negotiate an extension, they don’t have good enough prospects for a descent return, we kinda don’t like the Yankees.
tff17
It is a non-issue, just a chance to get a dig in at the opposition. The Yankees don’t have any elite prospects that would interest the Red Sox. Gary Sanchez is their best, and the Sox have catcher well covered.
Guest 3676
Eduardo rodriquez, Miguel Gonzalez, and a throw in for lester seems fair for a 2 month rental
Rally Weimaraner
Well Big-GM-Papi weighed in finally “The trading rumor about my left-hander, I don’t know where it came from,” Ortiz said. “It might be coming from the front office or whatever. When you’re planning on trading a player like that — that caliber of a player in today’s game — you must be getting half a team from some other place.”
There you have it asking price is half a team or you can’t have Papi’s left-hander!
bobbleheadguru
Depends which 1/2 you are talking about.
GrumpyPuppy
In other news, Papi has launched coup d’etat seized Cherington’s cell phone and barricaded himself inside his office
MeowMeow
Well, we know what he does to phones he doesn’t like D:
TheFenwayFaithful
It’s the truth. When you have a guy you can easily sign at a fair value that makes sense for both sides, you’d better ask for 3-5 high end prospects back in return. Anything less then a projected front of the rotation starter and a bat with some plus power potential shouldn’t even be offered.
Thinking logically, you could say Price’s stuff is better, but he does not have Lester’s playoff resume. The playoffs are what these rentals are all about. So if I’m the Sox, I’m not taking less for Lester then what would be offered for Price. In fact, based on this season, I’d ask for more.
Travis2014
If the Brewers trade Jimmy Nelson plus Tyrone Taylor/Orlando Arcia for a rental Doug Melvin better bet his job they get to the World Series or be fired.
Headshaker
This is actually smart by Cherington-you rent him out, extract value for a pitcher when the season is lost, then you get him back. Win win.
bobbleheadguru
Extremely rare that it works out that way.
If Lester is traded, it is very unlikely that he will take a hometown discount to stay with the Red Sox after he sees other offers.
If they want to trade to get value, they should not reasonably expect him to come back.
If they want him to come back, then they should give him a fair offer before he can see any other offers and sign him this week.
They have to decide this by Thursday.
Headshaker
Trust me the offers will not meet his demands. If he goes to STL, as is likely, Mo will try to wrap him up fast. Otherwise, don’t think he hits 6-120. There is about to be some serious spending cuts when it comes to FA. Drew and Morales were just the beginning.
VAR
Drew and Morales weren’t worth sacrificing a draft pick to sign. If Lester is traded no team will be able to make him a qualifying offer and he will not have draft pick compensation attached to him. That said, a QO would not have impacted his value at all. He is the second best free agent on the market this season, and having the best season of his career and the best season of any available pitcher. He will do better than 6 120 if he makes the open market. Free agent prices only go in one direction and it isn’t down.
And if you trade him, you aren’t going to resign him. You lose the exclusive negotiation period that way, and there’s no way the Red Sox outbid the other suitors.
Headshaker
The game has changed, the markets are going to continue to tighten. He won’t get that offer anywhere BUT the Red Sox, that is what people are not understanding.
Rally Weimaraner
How has the market tightened? Salaries are on the rise, extensions are at an all time high, TV contract are lager than ever. Basically what are you talking about?
northsfbay
We will see how loyal Lester is when the money starts rolling in.
bobbleheadguru
Scherzer rejected a 6 years and $144MM from Tigers without giving a reasonable counter offer. It is very likely that Scherzer will get more than the Tigers offer as it stands now.
Is Lester really that much worse than Scherzer?
jb226 2
I can’t imagine the Cubs would be deterred by 6/120, and they have the added bonus of the Theo/Jed connection to make his transition easier. Plus, for whatever reason, they absolutely love to scoop up former Red Sox players.
Dodgers also wouldn’t be deterred by that price tag. Yankees would love it if he came to them so cheap.
Better
All signs point to Boston making him a fair market value offer in the offseason. He wants to play for the Red Sox. That said, if Boston offers 5/100-120 (which is likely) and NYY offers something “Yankee stupid” like 7/175 sure he’ll probably take the Yankee money.
vtncsc
lol @ Braves checking in. That’s just them doing due diligence. No way they make it.
Fangaffes
“McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.”
Doesn’t matter. He’ll be in pinstripes by March.
vtncsc
Disagree. He’s not old enough for the Yankee’s to look at.
Damon Musha
If Billy Beane somehow pulls this one off, I will stake my place for the WS parade now in downtown Oakland {insert ‘along with the homeless’ jokes here}…
northsfbay
We have heard that before. You don’t play them on paper, you play them on the field.
bobbleheadguru
Verlander 2X. Maybe 3X if it is ALCS. Must Exorcise that Demon first.
cyberboo
I could see the Jays trading Nolin, plus a couple of low minors for Lester, which would give the Red sox a pitcher that is close to the majors, but none of the top ten prospects would be involved for a 2 month rental. It should be interesting to see what happens and the Jays could then sign Lester after the season for 5 years, which gives them another top of the rotation arm when they discard Buerhle. Stroman and Sanchez will be in the rotation, which makes Happ expendable.
Zac R.
Why would the sox trade for a guy who’s not even a top ten prospect for the Jays when they’d get a 1st round compensation pick if he signed elsewhere?
Zac R.
Why would the sox trade for a guy who’s not even a top ten prospect for the Jays when they’d get a 1st round compensation pick if he signed elsewhere?
Better
Didn’t the Sox get 2 of the Giants top 10 prospects for Jake Peavy?
SteveF
ORIOLESMAGIC!
thebiggestever
I don’t see the Dodgers as a very good match. They’re not going to give up Pederson, Seager or Urias for a rental, and the rest of their prospects probably aren’t good enough to get a deal done…unless Boston is willing to take a quantity package.
Chris Koch
Yes correct. Lester has 10-12 starts for a team in trade value. You don’t give up what appear to be AS talent for that. Price on the hand has another season of value plus compensation that really makes Lester’s value poor when it comes to elite prospects.
thegrayrace
I’m a Dodger fan. Seager is virtually untouchable, Urias pretty close to it, but Pederson is expendable. Lester alone may not be enough, but including a reliever in the package (and the Dodgers including a lower level prospect or two) could get the deal done.
teddyballgame
I laughed. “Lester alone may not be enough”. Thanks I needed that after a long day of work.
orangeoctober
It kind of makes sense for them to trade him in the division at this point. It’s only two months, they’re already out of the race, and Lester said he’d be open to resign in Boston even if traded anyway. Plus, taking away a top prospect from a divisional opponent and adding them to your team is like doubly effective.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
I don’t know. I know I am not convinced this is a good idea for the O’s
I still stand by trading for
Cashner
Quintana
Maybe, Keuchel from the Astros.
Othen then that, I can’t really get behind no matter who they are or what they have done in the past.
snowbladerp14
i think gonzo, rodriguez, a throw in should get it done if it takes more than that then id probably pass
Alonzo
It’s gonna take way more. It’s gonna take so much that most MLBTR fans will be saying “pass”. Some GM’s won’t…why? Because their job is living and making decisions best for the present. They cannot buy themselves anything if all kept prospects are panning out when they are long fired due to poor results.
snowbladerp14
its 2 months of him its not Prices year and a half. That is a top top 70 prospect, a servicable 5th starter with years of control and a player with upside
Alonzo
Look, I am not saying that your proposal is completely “homerish”, but it’s likely gonna cost one of Bundy, Harvey or Gausman. Is it gonna happen? Maybe not, but then Ben will shift his attention to the other 7-8 suitors since like the whole league is after Lester due to the fact that nobody else is available.
Bleed_Orange
Top 50 guys aren’t traded for two month rentals. Boston will get a good haul for him no doubt but I think the expectations are a bit exaggerated
Alonzo
And what was Mike Olt last year? Top 50 prospect and advanced (AAA)…and we are talking about Garza, not Lester. Plus prospects like Edwards (got compared to Glasnow), MLB-ready Grimm (fifth best Rangers prospect back then, B-grade) plus a possible mid-rotation guy in Ramirez.
How is that not a huge return? And again, just for Garza! A injury-prone pitcher with a much worse track record than Lester, let alone playoff numbers. Plus the Sox have one of the best RP in baseball available.
Bleed_Orange
Olt wasn’t top 100 when he was traded, dude was hurt and had eye issues. Cubs ultimatly got a handful of mid tier prospects a great return (one the rangers probably wish they could have back), but there probably were not any all star caliber players in that deal
Bleed_Orange
And one of the best relievers in baseball has been traded before having a great season like he is having now. He’s worth a mid tier rotation piece and a reclamation former top prospect.
KJ4realz
Id like to see the pirates get him
Justin 21
wrong Josh Bell link…
davE 36
pretty sure that’s not the right Josh Bell you have linked b/c i think the pirates would take that trade in a heartbeat.
Jesus Gutierrez
thats former dodger prospect 🙂
rapidrobert19
Ummm, wrong Josh Bell?
rapidrobert19
Ummm, wrong Josh Bell?
Benjamin Rush
Just looking for opinions here as an O’s fan. Would it be worth it to part with Hunter Harvey and maybe Tim Berry or Christian Walker to get Lester in town for what would essentially be a 3 month rental?
Edouble86
Tough decision to part with Harvey. He looks like the real deal in about 3 years, but who knows what the Orioles roster will look like then. You overpay to try to win now, or hang on to someone that can help a few years down the road.
Edouble86
Tough decision to part with Harvey. He looks like the real deal in about 3 years, but who knows what the Orioles roster will look like then. You overpay to try to win now, or hang on to someone that can help a few years down the road.
Better
I’m a Red Sox fan so take this knowing that…if I’m a team that hasn’t won in a very, very long time I give up anyone who isn’t a Strasburg/Trout type prospect for Jon Lester. I feel like, for the most part, the contending teams across baseball are currently evenly matched. Jon Lester has the ability to change that.
Better
I’m a Red Sox fan so take this knowing that…if I’m a team that hasn’t won in a very, very long time I give up anyone who isn’t a Strasburg/Trout type prospect for Jon Lester. I feel like, for the most part, the contending teams across baseball are currently evenly matched. Jon Lester has the ability to change that.
Bleed_Orange
Nope, not a chance would I do that. Lester won’t resign with Baltimore due to the fact that he is out of our price range and we can’t offer him a qualifying offer. You would be giving up 6-21 years of control of high end prospects for a two month rental.
Bleed_Orange
Nope, not a chance would I do that. Lester won’t resign with Baltimore due to the fact that he is out of our price range and we can’t offer him a qualifying offer. You would be giving up 6-21 years of control of high end prospects for a two month rental.
Benjamin Rush
Just looking for opinions here as an O’s fan. Would it be worth it to part with Hunter Harvey and maybe Tim Berry or Christian Walker to get Lester in town for what would essentially be a 3 month rental?
Chris Vinnit
If Neal Huntington gives away Josh Bell for Lester, he should be fired on the spot. If Lester had an extra year on his contract, maybe. But to give up an elite A++ prospect for that? Absolutely inexcusable.
Better
How bad to they want to win a World Series? Pittsburgh doesn’t get many shots and I don’t know of any FA’s dying to join the Pirates.
Dan Muccino
Pittsburgh is already built to be competitive for a while, and the sole reason is their farm. They’ll have plenty of shots. Besides, no trade guarantees them a WS, not even the great Jon Lester
Better
How bad to they want to win a World Series? Pittsburgh doesn’t get many shots and I don’t know of any FA’s dying to join the Pirates.
frogbogg
What if the Pirates got “CC Sabathia/Brewers” starters the remainder of the year? Lester will eat up the NL. He is a proven Post Season stud, unlike CC.
Bleed_Orange
Have to remember the big difference is that the Brewers were able to offer CC a qualifying offer… CBA has changed and the team who trades for him will not receive compensation for Lester leaving.
Ron Loreski
I don’t think there was a QO back then. Just type A and B free agents.
d-blaqueqq
Yeah, take a hit now and see it they can win it.
Todd Smith
Outfield is a position of strength the Pirates should be dealing from to improve the team now. If Lester was 3 years younger and had an extra year remaining, the Pirates would have to give up a heck of a lot more than Bell.
stl_cards16
A++ prospect? I guess I missed the new scouting report that has him hands down the best prospect in baseball.
Bleed_Orange
Yeah A++ is a bit exaggerated. Honestly I think Bell for Lester straight up is quite fair.
Chris Vinnit
Two comments down you posted: “Top 50 guys aren’t traded for two month rentals.” Bell is one of the top 15-20 prospects in baseball. Giving up the next David Ortiz for 10 starts from Lester is utter insanity. Especially when every advanced metric indicates they won’t even make the playoffs this year.
Bleed_Orange
Fair enough. That’s what I get for not doing my research first 🙂 I didn’t realize that Bell was ranked that high.
Stonehands
He isn’t a top 15-20 prospect, he is top 40, and that is generous considering his fielding isn’t anything to write home about and his arm is questionable at best. If the Sox threw in Miller and a C+ prospect, I think that would be enough for Bell and Kingham in a deal.
teddyballgame
Miller is likely to get a top 100 prospect by himself. Can’t see him being in the same deal as Lester or Lackey unless a team is giving up three top tier prospects.
Stonehands
Seriously? I know the price on relievers has been steep but do you think Miller can retrieve more in a deal than Street did?
teddyballgame
In normal circumstances I would be inclined to agree with you… but there are a lot of teams still in contention and knowing that your competition is bidding on the same players (Red Sox all but control the trade market) I think you’ll see someone willing to overpay.
Stonehands
Street’s package could be considered an overpay, they will definitely get a nice haul but it will be a couple B prospects, not anyone in the top 100
teddyballgame
All I can say is… I hope you’re wrong 🙂
Dan Muccino
Joakim Soria didn’t even get a top 100 prospect, what makes Miller so special? His status as a rental reliever? No thanks
goldenboy02
If that’s so generous why would you want him if you think he is overrated
goldenboy02
If that’s so generous why would you want him if you think he is overrated
Dan Muccino
Maybe not A++, but a serious 1st round talent that’s already a top 40 prospect.
stl_cards16
A++ prospect? I guess I missed the new scouting report that has him hands down the best prospect in baseball.
Rally Weimaraner
Normally I’d agree with you but PIT is set in the OF with Polanco, McCutchen and Marte all playing well and under contract for many years. It would certainly be a win now move but Bell is expendable. Red Sox may be willing to include Andrew Miller as well.
Plus trading for Lester has the added benefit of keeping him away from the Cardinal for the remainder of the season.
Dan Muccino
As long as the FO refuses to sign free agents, or spend big on the premier international market, no top prospect is expendable. The prospects are the life blood and they need a stockpile in order to remain competitive. There is a very real chance Marte and Polanco don’t become amazing overnight, and injuries can destroy a team like Pittsburgh. So their top 10 prospects need to stays put
M.Kit
Bell really has no future in pittsburgh. If he makes this move, he should be celebrated for showing that the time to win is now
teddyballgame
Are we talking the same Josh Bell who was ranked#74, hasn’t had a .900 ops at any level and is currently struggling in AA? Because two months of Lester is worth much more than that to a team who finally has a chance to win after decades of incompetence.
Dan Muccino
Speaking as a fan of that team who finally has a chance to win after decades of imcompetence: No two months of Lester doesn’t mean free prospects for Boston. And Josh Bell is CURRENTLY the 37th or so best prospect in baseball. You’re rental isn’t worth him, not even Jon Lester
Smrtbusnisman04
Unless they plan on trading Starling Marte, Bell will have to be moved eventually or converted to a 1B.
Mike Agogliati
Shelby Miller and Randal Grichuck from St. Louis for lester. Done and Done.
Stonehands
Not close, Grichuk is a good start but Miller has been atrocious, maybe Martinez?
andm369
if lester dealt, i believe he would still rejoin sox in offseason at pedrioa like deal
Rally Weimaraner
Pedrioa signed a 6/85 deal no way Lester settles for that once he is already a FA.
andm369
maybe not a deal with those kinds of numbers, but still a semi team friendly deal. if lester gets traded, i don’t think it won’t be without lester’s blessing. maybe im nieve but i believe lester is the type of guy who would become a rental for two months in order to help get the team he loves some extra pieces…and then return in the offseason.
bobbleheadguru
Why? The team has not been “friendly” to Lester.
BoSoXaddict
All signs are that the Sox have basically lost any leeway to sign Lester at any sort of discount. He will go to FA and entertain offers. I think the best one could hope for at this point is that he would sign with ithe Sox vs. another team if the money/years were equal. Or, perhaps he would be willing to take slightly less from Boston..but definitely not as much of a discount as he was wiling to give them before this season.
Dan Muccino
I may have to stop being a Pirates fan if they give up Bell for 2 months Lester. Worst decision ever for a team that refuses to pay for free agents and takes on acquisitions from the draft and international market only. It makes their prospects so much more valuable to them, I don’t see how this makes sense
Rally Weimaraner
Tell me where does Bell play for the Pirates in the next couple years?
snowbladerp14
be much better to package bell with another prosepect or 2 and get a player who will help the pirates for more than 2 months.
teddyballgame
Who?
Stonehands
Lackey
teddyballgame
Extra year at the minimum is certainly enticing. Lackey isn’t as good as Lester but you do get that. Is that worth the extra price?
Stonehands
I just threw out a name that might entice PIT, honestly I think Bell+ for Lester is fair despite how PIT usually operates, that is the going price, but in Lackey’s case, a deal around Kingham and 1-2 B prospects probably get it done
teddyballgame
It’ll be interesting… trying to speculate on the return for me is difficult because I don’t know all the prospects for the teams involved. Kingham doesn’t particularly interest me. His K/9 isn’t real attractive but the other numbers are pretty solid. I think the structure you’re suggesting is about right though, one top tier guy and a couple of lottery ticket types.
Remember92
Kingham is much better than youre suggesting. A FB that touches 96 and sit 92-95. A great change up and really good control. With an above average breaking ball. Kingham will be a very solid #3.
Stonehands
Exactly my thoughts as well, but looking at thew contract on Lackey, I think a package headlined by Kingham is obtainable
Remember92
In this sellers market I agree. But if I had my way; Taillon, Bell, Hanson, Sampson, and Cumpton would be buying tickets to Tampa and their affiliates.
Dan Muccino
That deal would have the Pirates losing 100 games/season in 5 years
Remember92
Considering our outfield is set for years, and we control Mercer for years at SS. And we would also still have Glasnow and Kingham to replace Liriano and Volquez for years. I willpolitely disagree with that assessment.
Dan Muccino
What part of the outfield appears set for years? Marte swings at everything in the same state on his way to poor power and OBP numbers. And Polanco hasn’t proven anything yet. What if there is an injury, or if a prospect doesn’t pan. The Pirates aren’t a team that fixes their issues with gigantic trades. The product on the field will suffer if something bad happens, and their only saving grace is the farm. So you can’t deplete it and expect to remain competitive. Youe trade may benefit the team for a year or two, but what do you do after that when those traded players go away and the remaining top prospects are already up? Now you have no farm, and the window begins to close because by that time some of those of cheap contracts will end (Cutch) and other key players will not be signed (Walker, Pedro, Cole, etc.)
Remember92
Think about where we were 5 years ago. Cutch was just breaking into the bigs. Marte was just coming over to the states. Polanco was nothing. No Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, etc. Pedro was a minor league train wreck. Plus you offer Price a QO after next year and you get another draft pick to offset one of the losses. SO much can happen in 5 years with player development. Our farm system was a joke 5 years ago. So to say it would cause us to lose 100 games is kind of silly with over 250 draft picks in the next 5 years along with international signings.
Remember92
Considering our outfield is set for years, and we control Mercer for years at SS. And we would also still have Glasnow and Kingham to replace Liriano and Volquez for years. I willpolitely disagree with that assessment.
teddyballgame
The more I think about it and look over these conversations… the more I get the feeling that the team who trades for Lackey is going to get the real gem out of this deal. I’m not even talking about the extra year at the minimum salary either. It just seems like the big trade guy each year is solid to underwhelming while a guy like Lackey who is a little overlooked ends up being the real game changer.
Stonehands
There is no question Lackey would be great switching leagues, but Lester is proven in the offensive league and division, he will be great no matter where he goes
teddyballgame
He absolutely might be better than I’m saying, K/9 is a big number for me when looking at prospects. I don’t pretend to be a scout though and I really don’t know much about prospects outside of the Red Sox organization. As I said, his other numbers are very solid and he’s ranked well by the professionals so he’s got something going on.
Dan Muccino
I believe Kingham sits 94-96 and touches 98.
Dan Muccino
First base. If it were me, he’d be given a new first basemen’s mit at the end of this season
Remember92
Suggesting Glasnow and Bell for Lester? Since when did we move on to the cornerstones of a Price trade with 1.5 years of control? Bell and Sampson for Lester yes, Glasnow, no way that’ll happen.
teddyballgame
Glasnow is the type of kid I’d like to see in return for Lester. He’s probably two or three years away from the bigs but he’s got all the numbers you want to see out of a top tier prospect. I’m a Sox fan so I’m saying DO IT!!! I’d want Glasnow and a couple of lottery ticket prospects for Lester though.
Remember92
Refines his control a little more on his 6’7″ frame and he will be up mid 2016. He is a beast that sits 94-97 and touches 100. One outing this year he hit 100 in the 4th inning. Also a plusccurve ball and improving change up. He is our #1 prospect. To me he is our 1 untouchable
Stonehands
What’s the deal with Meadows? He seems to be a great prospect but is a little too far away for the Sox to consider in a Lester deal unless there is another top 100 prospect coming back, possibly the centerpiece in a Lackey deal? or is that excessive?
Remember92
He was one of the two best HS bats in the draft last year along with Frazier. He had been injured for a while this year. Leg issues. He will he a corner OF. Sweet smooth swing from the left side. Power will come as he matures. Does a great job of getting the barrel to the ball. Looked at as the replacement in the OF once Cutch gets his brinks truck. Him or Harold Ramirez
Dan Muccino
I don’t understand you Red Sox fans, top 100 prospects aren’t just throw-ins to teams like Pittsburgh. We can’t replace that talent with 200 million dollar contracts. I don’t care how many rentals, long or short term, you talk about adding. We can’t keep them. Even a Lester deal getting a package with Bell headlining makes no sense for Pittsburgh
bkist
Well unfortunately you’re competing against teams who will throw in top 100 prospects so if you want him, thats the price.
Dan Muccino
Then I don’t want him. And we wont really know the price until the trade happens.
teddyballgame
He hasn’t even added what I refer to as that “man mass” either. Just something about men when he hits that 24 – 26 range where they just seem to become more naturally bulky. Not everyone of course but players like Lester and Buchholz both when through that growth stage. It was the difference between being a top prospect on the fringe to a true every big league player.
Stonehands
Who suggested Glasnow? and Sampson is a little low of a 2nd piece…Bell is a good start but a 2nd piece near the top of PIT’s farm would almost certainly need to be involved
Remember92
Sherman’s NY Post article
Stonehands
I will go take a look, that seems like a bit much if you ask me, and i’m a Sox fan
d-blaqueqq
It all depends if PIT has a decent chance at the division or a wildcard spot.
Stonehands
What’s the report on Sampson? I hear he has a mid-rotation ceiling but the overall scouting reports don’t seem to justify it
Remember92
He does have that upside at the least. He is having a big breakout year in AA. Has always outperformed his scouting reports. In our top 20, and as I’m sure you know. We have a deep system as well.
Stonehands
I just looked up the report and it’s more promising than expected, but I still think it would take a bit more than just those 2, possibly a PTBNL from this years draft or another low level high upside guy
Dustroia15
The Dodgers have three guys they could offer that are ranked ahead of Glasnow. I don’t think the Pirates will come up with an offer better than the Dodgers.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I honestly don’t see Lester being dealt…
d-blaqueqq
I want the Sox to get something for him in case he leaves in the offseason. These next few days are going to be exciting!
GrilledCheese39
Wow did not know Jose Tabata was converted to third base..?
GrilledCheese39
Wow did not know Jose Tabata was converted to third base..?
formerdraftpick 2
There is no doubt in my mind I would trade away “third baseman Jose Tabata.”
eedwards027
I wonder if that’s suppose to say Pedro Alvarez instead of Jose Tabata?
Brian_Bixler
Nope, Singer mentions Tabata. I went searching to see if Tabata had all the sudden been moved to 3B because of Alvarez’s throwing issues, but that would just be nuts.
eedwards027
I never thought Jose Tabata could be a wild card in a Jon Lester deal. Seen he was pulled from the AAA lineup tonight. That’s crazy
eedwards027
I never thought Jose Tabata could be a wild card in a Jon Lester deal. Seen he was pulled from the AAA lineup tonight. That’s crazy
eedwards027
I wonder if that’s suppose to say Pedro Alvarez instead of Jose Tabata?
Tim Richer
If I’m the Sox, I need Bell to get a deal done with the Pirates. If they can get the NL Central bidding against each other the untouchables may start to become available.
dc21892
No doubt. One of the teams is going to over pay for a chance to win the division and hope to make a world series run.
d-blaqueqq
Yeah, hoarding all these good prospects won’t pay dividends until later.
Dan Muccino
But you can’t guarantee that Lester does any of that for any team that trades for him.
Stonehands
Well, with the restrictions that PIT has put on a trade, it looks like Lester is not going there
Brian_Bixler
Just to change things up a little, what about a deal where the Pirates get Lester and Tazawa for Bell, Sampson, Cumpton, and Lambo?
Stonehands
I would actually do that deal if Lambo was switched to JaCoby Jones
BUCN
Jose Tabata was pulled from the starting lineup before tonights Triple A Indy game. Something is brewing
BUCN
Jose Tabata was pulled from the starting lineup before tonights Triple A Indy game. Something is brewing
Henry Limpet
“Third baseman Jose Tabata”? What is that supposed to mean? Jose Tabata has never played third base in his life. Please fix this mistake from the latest update (7.50pm-cdt).
Jeff Todd
Okay, I appreciate the heads up, but take it easy. It’s an honest mistake. There are tons of reports flying around right now, and I came up with that from … I don’t know, left field.
It’s fixed.
Jeff Todd
Okay, I appreciate the heads up, but take it easy. It’s an honest mistake. There are tons of reports flying around right now, and I came up with that from … I don’t know, left field.
It’s fixed.
GrilledCheese39
Josh Bell, Alen Hanson, JaCoby Jones, Adrian Sampson, and Jose Tabata for Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Andrew Miller. Who says no?
Tim Richer
I’d like to think the Red Sox wouldn’t want Clay Buchholz as their top starter heading into 2015. Even with that haul the Sox would be hard pressed to let Lackey go, because they want to be competitive next year.
d-blaqueqq
Clay is a giant question mark. We could get 12-1 Clay from last year or this one…
Tim Richer
Which is why no one wants him as #1. A reliable guy in front of him is needed, and with Lester likely gone Lackey will be needed.
d-blaqueqq
They should keep Lackey for sure. You think Anthony Ranaudo gets a shot at the rotation for ’15?.
Tim Richer
It’s too early to tell. He’d have to leap frog de la Rosa, Workman and Webster and with Owens not far off either there’s a lot of competition. de la Rosa projects more as pen arm and Workman is proven in the bullpen it could open a lane for him, but it’s a stretch at best.We’ll get a clearer picture on where everyone stands in September.
Tim Richer
I’d like to think the Red Sox wouldn’t want Clay Buchholz as their top starter heading into 2015. Even with that haul the Sox would be hard pressed to let Lackey go, because they want to be competitive next year.
Damon Bowman
Even if the Red Sox were better than 70% certain Lester would come back, would you really want to roll with Buchholz as your #2 to start 2015?
bkist
More likely if Miller and Lackey are included it would be Bell, Glasnow, and a midlevel guy. Lackey is more valuable than Price right now, so he wont be cheap at all.
Dan Muccino
Yeah keep telling yourself that. No chance is Lackey more valuable than Price
Dan Muccino
Yeah keep telling yourself that. No chance is Lackey more valuable than Price
Derek Puhalla
Jose Tabata is an outfielder not third baseman… would be a heck of a thing to get rid of Tabata and his contract, even though it’s a team friendly one
bigbadjohnny
No doubt the GM’s who have Lester, Price, Hammel, all looking for a better deal then what the Cubs got for Samardzija. All want a top notch prospect in return. Most likely, these pitchers will not be traded.
d-blaqueqq
Would be hilarious if Amaro is the only one that makes a deal.
Damon Bowman
If the GM who has Lester is thinking he can do better than the deal for Samardzija then he needs his head examined. You do realize that Lester’s a free agent and Samardzija’s locked up for one more year? No matter how much more you think of Lester it doesn’t merit a better deal. He can land something worthwhile — I won’t argue with you there. But more than Samardzija? No.
Ladrigan
You aren’t really comparing Shark to Lester, are you? Apples and Oranges. Lester has won 110 games and two WS. He’s a proven stud having a great year.
KJ4realz
Another year of control is very valuable though. Lester is the better, proven pitcher but that extra year at a good price for a solid pitcher has good value.
In saying that though, I might give a little bit better of a package for Lester than Shark.
KJ4realz
Another year of control is very valuable though. Lester is the better, proven pitcher but that extra year at a good price for a solid pitcher has good value.
In saying that though, I might give a little bit better of a package for Lester than Shark.
d-blaqueqq
I think the NL Central is going to be the key for Jonny boy.
Cdiaz
Lester isn’t pitching tomorrow so im guessing he’s going to get traded
d-blaqueqq
Farrell says it’s just in case he gets traded, but didn’t say that it was a sure thing.
d-blaqueqq
Farrell says it’s just in case he gets traded, but didn’t say that it was a sure thing.
Chris Vinnit
Reading that list of Pirates untouchables has restored my faith in Neal Huntington’s sanity. I was positively nauseous at the idea the Bucs would even consider trading away elite A+ quality prospects like Bell, Glasnow, etc for a two month rental. The idea they would even consider that is absolutely inconceivable.
Using Alen Hanson as a centerpiece of a trade is much more palatable. It would still pain me to see the Pirates parting with such a high quality prospect – Hanson would rank top 3 in 20-25 other systems easily – but I can stomach that sort of trade much more. Especially if Boston also takes Tabata off our hands. I actually think Jose could be a decent major league regular but not in our stacked OF. Plus, once his contract is off the books, they can afford to give his money to somebody more deserving like Neil Walker.
DempseyK
I am not even if favor of giving up Hanson as the centerpiece…Jacoby Jones, ok, but not Hanson for a 2 month rental. He would be added to my untouchables, along with Reese Mcguire.
bkist
There’s no way you get Lester without giving up a top 5 prospect. More likely Bell will have to be included to make it work.
Dan Muccino
Then I wouldn’t want Lester. Not worth it for only 2 months
Ron Loreski
Hanson’s stock is dropping with the Pirates. He is a terrible defensive shortstop and apparently he as attitude problems. I’d love to see another team bite on him.
j1066
So Jose Tabata is a third baseman now?
Damon Bowman
You’re five minutes ahead of me. I scrambled over to baseball reference to see if there was something I had missed with him.
Jeff Todd
I’ll play Tabata wherever I darn well please!
(edited)
yewed
Awesome. That means Boston might be getting another Brock Holt.
Has Tabata ever pitched ?
Jeff Todd
Has anyone given him the chance? From here on I shall refer to him as: “OF/3B/RHP Jose Tabata.”
yewed
Done deal. I’ll e-mail Ben and tell him to hang up the phone.
Negotiations are over.
He’ll never get anybody better than this.
bobbleheadguru
Where? I will go with Tigers, as their three inning closer for every other game.
GrilledCheese39
Hope it’s the Pirates. Tabata scratched late from AAA tonight. Alvarez not playing today against a RHP (although it could be his knee bothering him). Just hope we wouldn’t give up anything too extreme.
DempseyK
Lester officially scratched from tomorrows start…the buccos are actually gonna pull this off I think! Im hoping for something along the lines of Jacoby Jones, Barret Barnes Andy Oliver, and Jose Tabata for Jon Lester and Andrew Miller
JCurrie39
If I’m Lester I’m hoping for a trade. His FA value goes up even more without the QO (though it wouldn’t have hurt his value too much) it may be a 5-10 million dollar difference for him.
bobbleheadguru
Lester’s career with Red Sox is likely over as well. Boston is cheap when it comes to players now… but somehow finds a way to charge $70 for 100 year old seats with leg room for a 3rd grader directly behind poles.
snowbladerp14
lol payroll is 150 million and 5th in the league not exactly pinching pennies
Connor 3
Curious to see if Pittsburgh can get Lester without giving up any of their top 5 prospects, history shows that you need to give up a guy in the top 100 and a few lower end prospects to get someone like Lester even for 2 months.
Connor 3
Curious to see if Pittsburgh can get Lester without giving up any of their top 5 prospects, history shows that you need to give up a guy in the top 100 and a few lower end prospects to get someone like Lester even for 2 months.
Chris Vinnit
Hanson ranks #60-75 on almost every top 100 list. Jones appears on many of those as well, although somewhat lower. Like I said below, the rankings are very skewed because the Pirates system is so deep. In 20-25 other systems, a guy like Hanson would be a top 3 prospect.
Connor 3
Didn’t know Hanson was rated that high, they could definitely get Lester with for Hanson and a few average prospects
Dan Muccino
So very happy that the Pirates bullet appears to show NH is using his brain. One question: When did Jose Tabata turn into a 3B? He’s always been an OF
Tony Matias
The M’s GM and all assistants to team including directors made the trip to Cleveland. Wouldn’t be surprised if the M’s are the team to trade for Lester and have him start in Cleveland on Thursday.
vtncsc
Pirates.
GrilledCheese39
Ok so with the Brewers, Orioles, and Blue Jays likely out. That leaves the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates left (unless the usual “mystery team” appears). This is getting intense.
Jack Miller
Since when is Tabata a third baseman? Thought he was an outfielder.
Hoosierdaddy92
While I believe in JD Martinez’s breakout this season, part of me thinks the Tigers should risk trading him for a package of Lester, Victorino, and Andrew Miller and some cash to help cover Victorino contract, nabbing seemingly the last 3 pieces I think we need for a championship this season. Lester is the proven lefty ace that we have lacked each post season. (Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fister were all righties). Miller could be exactly the dominant lefty we need out of the Pen. And while Martinez has been much better than Victorino this season, I think Victorino’s extensive playoff performance history make him a better gamble than Martinez. Considering Martinez is controllable through 2017, I could see Boston taking that deal and gambling Martinez’s breakout is legitimate.
Bluduke28
Nah dude
Hoosierdaddy92
are you saying the Red Sox say no or the Tigers? Seems to be a good gamble for both sides in my opinion. Red Sox clear a bit more salary space and get a guy that can help them win in the immediate future that is more proven than a prospect. In fact, he was also a top prospect at one point, and is perhaps hitting his stride a little later (still only 26 years old). Tigers fill 3 needs for the price of 1, with Victorino being a suitable replacement.
Hoosierdaddy92
are you saying the Red Sox say no or the Tigers? Seems to be a good gamble for both sides in my opinion. Red Sox clear a bit more salary space and get a guy that can help them win in the immediate future that is more proven than a prospect. In fact, he was also a top prospect at one point, and is perhaps hitting his stride a little later (still only 26 years old). Tigers fill 3 needs for the price of 1, with Victorino being a suitable replacement.
yewed
As a Redsox fan I would consider that, depending on the package.
As a Tiger fan that could be a lot for a one and done. Lester and Miller would be free agents and Victorino has playoff experience , but it is hard keeping him on the field.
Hoosierdaddy92
Martinez could be huge or could be a bust for Boston. But that can be said about all prospects. The only difference is Martinez has actually proven he can be valuable for over half a season in the major leagues. Victorino and Lester not only have playoff experience, but they thrive there, which is something the Tigers have had problems with in the past. The bats go cold in the playoffs, besides Jhonny Peralta and Delmon Young (both gone) and we rely on Verlander to elevate his game. That’s not looking likely this season either.
yewed
It’s definitely plus for Boston. Martinez could be a bust or
could be the next Stanton. It’s just a big risk for 2 months, and the future. Miggys getting older, down a little
this year. vmart is getting older. Somewhere in the future they will need offense.
Hoosierdaddy92
I agree with that, big risk for the Tigers. But there really isn’t a better move that completely fills the Tigers needs. Also, one side benefit of a deal like this is who knows how much Lester enjoys competing with the Tigers and coming over with World Series teammates Victorino and Miller. If Tigers can’t afford to resign Scherzer (who apparently wants Kershaw type money 200+) I’d be very content if we could convince Lester to resign for the 6/150 we offered Scherzer at the beginning of the season.
yewed
It would take 5 prospects minimum.
I still think it’s way too much for the Tigers to give up for the
possibility of one World Series and maybe we could convince
Lester to sign with us.
Hoosierdaddy92
I agree, I mean I even said I believe in Martinez’ breakout. But considering it’s increasingly unlikely we can afford Scherzer, I’d rather them go all in for Lester, Miller, and Victorino and tie up all loose end. Then additionally, they can try to resign Lester to continue their dominant rotation. They did something similar when they acquired Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante a few years ago. Shored up their two lose spots but gave up one high-upside guy in Jacob Turner to do it. So far, the gamble appears to have paid off. Same with Maybin and, coincidentally, Miller for Cabrera and Willis. They didn’t even need Sanchez at the time, had a dominant Verlander, Fister, and Scherzer was in the midst of breaking out.
Paul Shailor
I dont think the Red Sox would do that. The Tigers would have to include pretty much everything they got in the farm, JD simply isnt enough.
Hoosierdaddy92
Given JD’s numbers this season, his talent upside (he’s always been a top prospect capable of doing this) and 3 years of team control, I disagree. Maybe some extra minor pieces get added, but he’s a perfectly reasonable headliner at this point. He’s more proven than most top prospects at this point.
Paul Shailor
But he also flopped. I think they could get more if they traded miller/lester separately.
Hoosierdaddy92
Still disagree. If Red Sox want to maximize the return for Lester, they should be packaging him, as teams don’t want to give up top guys for just one rental player, albeit a really good one. If I am the Dave Dombrowski, I would not trade JD Martinez for Jon Lester straight up, because of Martinez 3 years of additional control beyond this season and his potential to continue this success at affordable arbitration salaries the next 3 seasons. But I would do it if I received a viable replacement for Martinez (Victorino) and upgraded at another position of weakness (Miller).
Paul Shailor
So if you are the red sox, you would rather get jd martinez than peterson from the dodgers and a high a prospect and then miller for some decent prospect or 2?
Hoosierdaddy92
They are not getting Pederson from the Dodgers. Period. That’s all hope from Red Sox fans, unrealistic to demand that for a rental. As for Miller, why not package him to go for the higher upside pick in Martinez. Outfielders with Martinez’s current numbers over a full season are landing contracts in the 50MM-90MM range (Hunter pence, Andre Ethier (when he was good), Carlos Beltran). As arbitration eligible the next 3 seasons, he wouldn’t even make half that. People forget that Martinez has also hit 10HRs in the minors this season, he is up to 23 HRs on the season including those.
Paul Shailor
The brewers got jean segura for greinke.
You cannot include his minor league numbers, at all. Furthermore he stunk after the break so far. You are talking about a guy who is having one season contrary to his entire career for a rental of a great number 2 pitcher with postseason dominance, a solid bullpen arm, and a veteran outfielder. No way.
Let me go at this from a different angle, I have no desire as a tigers fan to get lester. YEa hed help us, but we would go down to a 4 man rotation come postseason anyways so porcello would be the odd man out. I would rather see us beef up the pen more.
Hoosierdaddy92
I think his numbers after the break are not as good a sample size of his numbers up to this point. I agree, his minor league numbers are terrible. So were Jose Bautistas though.
I think he and miller would help us moreso than ever, with Verlander’s struggles and a clear need for a dominant. lefty in the pen. I’m not sure we can count on Verlander this post season, and have not been able to completely fill the void left by Fister, although Porcello has done well, Sanchez, Verlander, Scherzer have all regressed from last season
Paul Shailor
Verlander struggled last year and was lights out in the postseason. All of our pitchers are big game postseason pitchers sans porcello. So you would bench verlander? porcello whose been rocking it the entire year? Lester doesnt fit, which is why ever team int he league but the tigers have been reported to call about him.
Damon Bowman
With all due respect, you are way overvaluing Martinez. Good player with potential to be solid Major Leaguer, yes. Headlining a deal that would bring 3 all-star caliber players back, no. Victorino is signed through ’15 and Martinez won’t even get you Victorino alone. Start talking Miller and Lester and you’d have to give up at least 3 more prospects to even get the attention of Cherrington in Boston.
Hoosierdaddy92
JD’s hit 23 Hrs this season, including the 10 HRs he hit in the minors. Good for 7th in the league and top 3 for all OFs. He has completely changed his swing and approach at the plate modeling it after Miggy. He is hitting almost .320 on the year with a decent walk rate. He plays solid above average defense. What’s not to like? If I’m Boston, who’s trying to jump right back into contention as soon as next year, I want a guy who has proven he can hit major league pitching, is affordably controllable for the next 3 seasons after this, and is young enough for it to be a breakout and use him through his prime. He is very likely to be the “Jose Bautista” of this season
I’m glad some Boston fans are balking at this proposal though, because we’d probably regret trading the guy.
Hoosierdaddy92
Also, I’m sorry, but Victorino and Miller are not All-Star caliber players anymore or currently. They are very solid players, but not legitimate All-Stars. JD Martinez, however, could be developing into one and is controllable for the next 3 seasons at arbitration salaries.
Howie
lol JD isn’t that good to get Lester
Chiburgh
Jose Tabata was just pulled from the game in Indianapolis, AAA Pirates
frogbogg
Is he still married to that 40 something year old?
GrilledCheese39
I’m pretty sure he is the 40 year old.
frogbogg
Ha!
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Lester may have been scratched, but the breaking news and quite frankly fantastic news is Vin Scully is coming back for the 2015 season!
I just thought, I would break the monotony here with some good news!
yewed
Vin Scully is simply the best ever.
Why wouldn’t he come back, with that team and owners deep pockets.
It’s a no brainer.
Mark Kelevara
Money isn’t the issue, health is. You really think that Vin is concerned about money at this age? Come on man! haha
Great news though, Vin seems to have a little more hop in his skip today.
yewed
First it was a joke. (kind of) Second, I meant the owners are willing to spend money on the team.
Although I’m sure Mr. Scully is well compensated.
yewed
First it was a joke. (kind of) Second, I meant the owners are willing to spend money on the team.
Although I’m sure Mr. Scully is well compensated.
yewed
Vin Scully is simply the best ever.
Why wouldn’t he come back, with that team and owners deep pockets.
It’s a no brainer.
Dodgerz88
Best news of the season short of a Dodgers WS title!!!
Travis2014
The day we don’t have Scilly and Uecker is going to be one sad day for baseball.
jury_rigger
Someone do SOMETHING, it’s been a yawner of a trade season thus far
Kevin
What’s up with the red sox, they win the world series and nine months later their trading a franchise player. Can’t imagine the Yanks ever doing something like that.
yewed
Maybe that’s why they only have 1 World Series title in the last 14 yrs.
Frittoman626
Still 1 more than the majority of teams have won in that span.
yewed
except the redsox.
yewed
except the redsox.
d-blaqueqq
3 in 10 baby!
yewed
All Day.!
2004 3 yrs, 2007. 6 years 2013
Hopefully don’t have to wait until 2025 for the next one.
d-blaqueqq
I’m hoping it’s 3-6-3-6 the rest of the way, haha.
Kevin
It’s more like 3 in 96 years.
d-blaqueqq
Best team in the last decade. Fact.
Kevin
The Giants 2010 & 2012 and Cardinal 2006 & 2011 fans would disagree with you. They both also have a shot to win this year as well. Your team has thrown in a few last places finishes in the last decade as well.
Kevin
You conveniently left off four years. The Yanks have won five world series in the last 18 years and have appeared in two others. It’s pretty sad that you went from a championship team to a last place team looking to sell one of your home grown heroes. The guy has said multiple times he wants to stay with the team even if he gets traded. I’m sure Pedroia is not happy the front office is giving up and is selling. My point is I can’t remember the last time the Yanks gave up and sold. Even this year the team is barely a .500 team but Cashman is still making deals trying to get the team into the playoffs. I feel sorry for Lester, the team would rather trade him and get some prospects that may or may not make it in the majors instead of letting him finish his possible last year in Boston. Where’s the respect and loyalty to this guy. There’s not one Boston fan out there who thought your season would turn out this bad you’d have to trade Lester. I don’t want to hear you’re doing this to improve the team in the future. Your team was built to win this year.
Better
No one knows what the off season will hold but from what I’ve heard both sides are confident Lester will be back in Boston next season. There is no rift in that relationship. If they can get a couple prospects to loan Lester out for a few months than you do that, especially when you’re desperate for chips to give Miami for Stanton. I think people find it too hard to believe that the Red Sox can snag someone’s top prospects and then bring Lester back after the season, I believe it’s the most likely scenario. Only time will tell!
Kevin
I really don’t think the Sox want to commit to Lester what the Yanks commited to CC. Once these pitchers get into their 30’s you never know when they are going to break down. Verlander is already showing smalls signs of decline and his contract just started. CC hasn’t been good for a couple of years now and who knows how he’s going to be when he returns next year. From what I read Miami is looking to add pieces to contend so there’s no way you’re getting Stanton. I still feel like Boston is disrespecting him by trading him. Home grown, franchise player, world series hero. No way you trade him and hope you get pieces back that may or may not help and there’s no guarantee he’ll come back to Boston as a free agent. If Boston wanted him back I think they would have extended him, but I assume Lester’s contract demands scared them off a bit. Like you said time will tell but again as a Yankee fan I’m really surprised they are trading him.
yewed
It wasn’t convenient. My point was it was about 2002-2003
when the yankees payroll started to become out of hand.
Yet they keep doing the same thing and have 1 title since that time. Boston has 3. Sure last year worked, but a lot had to happen, minimal injuries, rookies contributing and some players having career years. That team last year was by far
not the best team in baseball. It would basically be the same
team next year as this year. It might take awhile for them
to get back on top. Why would they want to pay a 37 year
old pitcher over 20 million . Lester is having his best season
Look at his career stats, He’s not in the same league as
kershaw, hernandez etc… It’s not about respect it’s a business. Built to win this year, we didn’t. its broke so
they are trying to fix it. Just in a different way than the yankees. Not by just adding more contracts.
Kevin
There are certain players on teams that you need to take care of. They took care of Pedroia didn’t they? How old is he when his contract is up? I think Lester deserves a little more respect then he’s getting from ownership and from what I’m reading from you the fans. You guys could care less now that he’s moving on. I know he’s not as good as Kershaw and the others you mentioned but he is your ace and you’re going to be a worse team in the next so many years without him. If it were Lackey or the other starter they just traded I could see your point but this is your own home grown guy. The Yanks won the other four championships with the highest payroll in baseball as well so I’m not sure of your point regarding payroll.
yewed
They were the highest payroll but not by such a hugh margin
There were times they were over 80 million above everyone else. Pedroia is taking way less then he could be making.
Like I said. it’s a business. A few years ago we traded away
gonzales, crawford, beckett and that worked out ok. The Redsox will survive. You can’t tell me that yankee fans are tired of seeing huge contracts under achieving and on the DL.
Jeff Snedden
I’m a lifetime Pirates fan and I understand the economics of small-market baseball as well as anyone, but in this National League and this division, the time is NOW for this team. The outfield is set for the next five years – Cutch, Marte, Polanco with Austin Meadows, Harold Ramirez, Jacoby Jones waiting in the wings behind them. Josh Bell is a fantastic prospect and he will probably be an above-average MLB power hitter, but I don’t see him making an impact with the Pirates simply because of the talent in front and behind him. If a combination of Bell, Adrian Sampson/Cody Dickson, Allen Hanson, and Jose Tabata can bring Jon Lester and Andrew Miller to Pittsburgh, I’m ready to do it. The NL is there for the taking. The Pirates need a front line #1 SP. Bell could be a big get for Boston, but you have to give talent to get talent. The Bucs are a LEGIT National League contender. I say do it Neal.
d-blaqueqq
Someone who finally makes sense. 😛
Jeff Snedden
Thanks. There are a lot of recently minted Pirates fans who don’t seem to understand the frustration that 20 years of dismal baseball begets. I was 15 years old in October 1992 and I’m not even the slighted bit embarrassed to admit I cried like a baby when Fransisco Cabrera slid into home. What I remember the most about that young Pirates team is the 1990 trade that brought Zane Smith to Pittsburgh from Montreal. The Pirates gave up Moises Alou in that deal, not to mention Scott Ruskin – a guy who had the best curveball in baseball at the time and a young Willie Greene. It was a steep price to pay, but that trade propelled the Bucs to the NL East title in 1990 and he was a huge contributor in 91-92 as well. Zane Smith was no Jon Lester. The window to win in a small market like Pittsburgh is ultra-slim, no matter how great the farm system is. In 5 years when the new hoardes of Pirates fans have gone back to counting down the days until football season in mid-July, myself and thousands of other diehards will still be sitting in PNC Park. I’m not willing to pass up this opportunity to win NOW. I don’t want to mortgage the entire future, but Josh Bell is a small price to pay for another shot at the Cardinals and a pennant. /end rant.
d-blaqueqq
Yeah, it’s easy to be a fan when your team is doing well. I hope the sox trading lester to pitt gets them into the playoffs. It’ll be hard to see lester pitching for another team, but I’ll be rooting for you guys.
Headshaker
The Bucs have had 22 years to look to the future it is time for them to go for it, if you beat my Cardinals, I hope you go all the way.
Headshaker
The Bucs have had 22 years to look to the future it is time for them to go for it, if you beat my Cardinals, I hope you go all the way.
PittsburghPirates0022
Bell could play first base in the Majors.
Danielle Rennifer
Pirates or the Dodgers is another good landing spot for John Lester depending on the right offer for both teams.
Headshaker
Lester is going to the Cardinals.
Crosstownkid
For what it’s worth tabata was pulled from his triple A game tonight. Lackey, carp and miller could all be dealt too
Crosstownkid
For what it’s worth tabata was pulled from his triple A game tonight. Lackey, carp and miller could all be dealt too
KJ4realz
Lester is going to Pitt. I hope. Would like to see Pitt get that front line guy
Smrtbusnisman04
John Lester to the Pirates for Alen Hansen, Wyatt Mathiesen, Harold Ramirez, and Adrian Sampson?
Chris Vinnit
Too much for the Pirates to give up unless they get a throw-in from Boston like Miller or Badenhop.
Antonio Alexsander langston
Pretty big talent gap between miller and badenhop. I don’t think anyone in the Sox front office would consider miller a throw in.
GrilledCheese39
I’d do it.
ztoa
Good as gone
Travis2014
Obviously, he won’t pitch again for the Red Sox.
Travis2014
Obviously, he won’t pitch again for the Red Sox.
W.G
I think it’ll probably be the Pirates. Dodgers and Cardinals both showed hesitance when asked about their top prospects. Pirates have enough to get it done.
Howie
Won’t be surprised if the Pirates get him, but we’ll see. I’ll prob. be wrong since people are saying Cardinals got it locked.
Antonio Alexsander langston
Lester for a deal based around Piscotty or Bell. Then ship Lackey and Miller to LA to pickup Pederson+
John Thomas
If the Pirates are really in on Lester, it’s got to do with Russell Martin than anything else. The way he handles the pitching staff, coupled with the season he’s having at the plate, virtually assures the he’ll be far too expensive for Pittsburgh to sign next year. Tony Sanchez does not have the skills to replace Martin, and the Pirate FO knows that this is the hour to take our shot.
Howie
Sportsnet reports the Blue Jays, Pirates, Orioles, Mariners and Marlins in the hunt as of late last night…not sure how much truth there is considering Sportsnet is in Canada lol
teddyballgame
I love these articles… everyone of them claims that the teams who want to trade for these players has no interest in giving anything back. Almost makes one think that these players are going to be traded for a bag of balls.
“I want one of the best pitchers in baseball and in return we’ll see you a bag of balls and a luxury suite for the playoffs so you can watch your former player help us win.”
Riiight.
teddyballgame
Red Sox rotation for the rest of the season? Buchholz, Workman, de la Rosa, Webster and Ranaudo?
Steve_in_MA
One just has to laugh uncontrollably when you read the blurb on the Pirates. There’s no one off the table in talks for Lester. If you have anyone you think you’re excluding, then you’re not even in the conversation to get him. It would take a package like Taillon and Meadows to make them even competitive in this process.
formerdraftpick 2
It looks like the Pirates may be shipping away a combo of minor leaguers which may consist of Tabata, Mel Rojas, Edwin Espinal, and/or Jeff Roy.