Mike Trout's on-field excellence need not be repeated here, nor compared to that of other players. He is really young, and really good, and is those things combined in a manner unmatched by any other current player. Also, having not yet qualified for arbitration, he is really cheap.
Trout will remain youthful for some time, and every indication is that he'll continue to be outstanding. But he will not continue to play for a league minimum salary for much longer.
Set to hit arbitration next year with potentially unprecedented levels of performance, Trout could well shatter records if he is allowed to go year to year. Then, qualifying for free agency after the 2017 season at just 26 years of age, Trout could become the most sought-after open-market player in baseball history.
On the other hand, injury or decline could change things. And Trout's career earnings are relatively meager as things stand, in spite of his two monster years of performance, leaving him somewhat exposed entering his platform seasons.
So, both Trout and the Angels face risk, and both sides have incentives to talk about a new deal. Indeed, recent reports indicate that the parties are legitimately interested in making a serious run at reaching an extension at the start of the current year.
That makes this an opportune time to ask MLBTR's readers how they see things. The poll below comes with two questions, broken into two parts, both of which assume an extension scenario during the current offseason (or reasonably early during the 2014 campaign, when any contract is likely to be inked due to luxury tax considerations).
First, it asks you to opine as to the largest deal that the Angels should be willing to agree to with Trout (years and dollars). Second, it asks you to predict what deal Trout will ultimately land.
I have set fairly generous response parameters, designed to avoid patently absurd responses. The number of years must be between 3 and 15, while the amount (in $MMs) must fall between 50 and 500.
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Click below to view survey results.
3:30pm (6,019 responses)
1) largest deal Angels should be willing to make
|
years |
$ |
|
|
average |
10.10 |
289 |
|
median |
10 |
300 |
|
mode |
10 |
300 |
2) deal likely to be reached
|
years |
$ |
|
|
average |
8.62 |
249 |
|
median |
9 |
250 |
|
mode |
10 |
300 |
I can’t get the survey to work. I punch in my years, but I can’t get it to allow me to punch in dollar values.
That has been fixed, sorry. Now working to sort out the results.
Apologies for the confusion — these things usually go off just fine, but I seem to have encountered some hitches with this one.
Okay, manual fix is complete. Needless to say, I am very sorry for the delay and issues.
I’ll update the results every hour or so, as I’m able, and post them after the page break.
Perhaps Arte should just sign over team ownership to Trout?
Plus keys to the stadium, blank check, his own island, and 2 787’s to top Tanaka.
Great Idea
Well… I had willing at 12/$384MM and likely at 7/$216MM
I wrote Willing Max pay likely 10/$315MM
I’m having trouble judging how much he would get in his first year of arbitration, much less a huge extension… all I know is that the Angels have to get it done…
2 million in 2014, 7 year extension signed after opening day so it won’t affect the 2014 luxury cap…10 million dollar signing bonus and 5 million more for 2015…18 million for 2016…22 million for 2017 ( 55 million total for arbitration years ) 30 million for 2018 and 2019….35 million for 2020 and 2021 and a team option for 40 million for 2022 ( total 7 year 185 million plus 1 year 40 million team option )…he becomes a free agent at age 31…lifetime security for Trout, slight discount for Angels if he continues to play like he has and young enough to land another huge contract at age 31…..
I’m having trouble judging how much he would get in his first year of arbitration, much less a huge extension… all I know is that the Angels have to get it done…
I’m having trouble judging how much he would get in his first year of arbitration, much less a huge extension… all I know is that the Angels have to get it done…
Honestly the highest i’d go is 8/$220MM.
Trout will get the kind of pay that will make even the most conservative fans stand up and say “how outrageous.”
The Angels just need to accept the fact that he’ll be paid something in the 300 million with an opt out deal.
Most likely he signs for 0/$0 and hits FA, but that wasn’t an option.
As an Angels fan, I say give the man what he wants. I don’t care how much. I’d just love to be able to go out to the park and watch him play for the next decade or so. When Trout is on the field, it brings a completely new level of excitement to the game. At any given moment you could find yourself witness to something absolutely spectacular. If Arte is willing to give a 10 year deal to a “31” year old Albert, why not Trout?
I like how you put 31 in “” lol
As an Angels fan, I say give the man what he wants. I don’t care how much. I’d just love to be able to go out to the park and watch him play for the next decade or so. When Trout is on the field, it brings a completely new level of excitement to the game. At any given moment you could find yourself witness to something absolutely spectacular. If Arte is willing to give a 10 year deal to a “31” year old Albert, why not Trout?
I would give hime 5 years and 20MM, maybe 22MM anually. I think it would be perfect for both sides.
That is probably what the Angels are thinking but no way Trout takes that. He’s going to hit some ridiculous numbers in arbitration if the Angels choose to go that route.
$100M/5 would be way overpaying him if it bought out his 2014 season.
Well, that’s why I think is perfect. Trout would get a huge raise and be a free agent at age of 26-27. The Angels could get a bargain from him if he continues performing this way, but wouldn’t pay that much(comparing to 27-30MM/year) if he underperform.
That is probably what the Angels are thinking but no way Trout takes that. He’s going to hit some ridiculous numbers in arbitration if the Angels choose to go that route.
Given Clayton Kershaw signed away his FA years for 32.5 apiece, anything under 30 for Trout in FA years is where he walks away and says “Hey, I’m hitting free agency as the best player in baseball and at age 26. What’s going on in your life?”
All the while Bryce Harper sit’s in the corner and says “Yea, I’m mad bro”
That would be way too high. 500K for this year, and then figure 10/15/20 which is pretty optimistic for arbitration. And you are essentially paying $54.5M for one free agent season.
Trout would get a huge raise and be a free agent at age of 26-27, I know that. But The Angels could get a bargain from him if he continues performing this way, but wouldn’t pay that much(comparing to 27-30MM/year) if he underperform. They would’t have to worry about him the next 4 years, and considering that players like Pujols and Hamilton can play well the next 5 years, I think thats a win-win
I think he takes a hometown discount. 15 years, 1 billion a year
That’s a pretty affluent town.
10 years, 300m
Is most realistic!
I just can’t fathom that they’ll give him any less than $300mil in total. If they gave Pujols 10 years in his age-31 season, it seems like a no-brainer to do the same for Trout. I can see a 12/$300mil with an opt out after 6.
I think if he went to free agency when he’s supposed to, 12/350 makes sense. Sounds crazy to sign a player to 12 years, but at 26, you’re getting at least 6 extremely productive years – unless major injury – and we all know how free agency works. It ends in extreme overpay.
I have a hard time determining Trout’s value because there has been not real comparisons. However, I will say that because the Angels would be buying out arb. years, which most likely would not be as high as $20-25 mil annually; I would think an 8-10 year deal in the range of $175-$200 mil. should be sufficient rather than in the range of $250 mil +. By then, he can hit free agency again.
I would give Mike Trout the money. All the money.
Arod like contract (12,350). Surely Angels want to keep Trout for his whole career. Some of this money is to reward him for what he has already done versus what he likely will do in last 2 or 3 years of the contract.
If you were Trout though, wouldn’t you want to sign a lucrative short term deal that gets you to free agency? That way you can see where the Angles are in a couple of years, and look at the rest of the league and see if there is a better spot? The kid is amazing, so if your the Angles 10 years 300 would be a good cap. Though 30 million is high for any player from a team standpoint. But if I’m Trout I would try to get about 4 years 60 million if money is his thing.
Agreed. Trout should take something short term, set himself and his family up for life, and become a free agent when he is 25 or 26, setting himself up for another big contract. He will be more of a known quantity then, having established a longer track record.
That is a huge risk though. He could get a 4/60 million which is a nice pay day, but I dont think he signs for anything less than at least 25 mill a year. Also, he may be looking for a long term deal for 25 mill + to ensure that if anything happens to him (production drops off drastically, last 2 years were a fluke…not saying they are) and still be getting a huge payday
If you were Trout though, wouldn’t you want to sign a lucrative short term deal that gets you to free agency? That way you can see where the Angles are in a couple of years, and look at the rest of the league and see if there is a better spot? The kid is amazing, so if your the Angles 10 years 300 would be a good cap. Though 30 million is high for any player from a team standpoint. But if I’m Trout I would try to get about 4 years 60 million if money is his thing.
7/160 then Trout, if he’s an all timer can get basically 17/350+ when all is said and done. If he signs 10-12 years now, you’re talking much smaller money in his late 30’s.
3/75 at this time.
Three years and $75 million for now.
That would make no sense. So you’re going to pay him way more than he would make in arbitration with no intention of locking him up beyond that, just so he would be inclined to walk via FA after those 3 years? Good call.
That would make no sense. So you’re going to pay him way more than he would make in arbitration with no intention of locking him up beyond that, just so he would be inclined to walk via FA after those 3 years? Good call.
Why would Trout sign more than 1 year past his post-arbitration years? If I were his agent, I’d sign a 4 year deal worth approx. 125M (signing thru arbitration + 1 year). Then in November 2017, hit Free Agency for the 10 Year / 500M deal with the Mets or Yankees (His hometown).
Angels and their terrible management doesn’t deserve Mike Trout.
He is from New Jersey, not NYC. His hero growing up was Jeter, so I see your point.
Why would it make any sense for the Angels to make that deal?
How much will he make if he doesn’t sign a contract and goes year to year? I guess that’s the question.
Maybe he signs a 4-year deal (giving the Angels +1 year), both sides show good faith and he tells the Angels that they will have an opportunity to match any offer in 2018.
So a AAV of 31.25 million for 3 arbitration years and one free agent year? Wow that would be the the worst contract in MLB history. You do know that the largest 1st year arbitration contract is 10 million…most experts think he could get between 45 to 60 million for those 3 years if he continues to put up MVP type years for the next 3 years…say he gets 60 million for those 3 arbitration years, you are saying he should get 65 million to buy out his first free agent year?
I think Trout and the Angels would both be satisfied with seven years @ $210 million. That will give him a chance to sign another blockbuster when he’s still in his prime.
I went 7 for 200 on both
8 yrs, 205 m, opt out after 6, broken down to 10, 15, 20, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 mill
As for an extension, I see 7 years being realistic, at around $25mm per, meaning a $175 contract. If I am Mike Trout, I don’t sign it. Why lock yourself into the Angels for that long? I could see if they bought out his remaining Arb Elig years and maybe the first year or two of eligible FA, but nothing more than that. Being from NJ, you know the Mets, Yanks, Sox, and maybe Phils and O’s will back up the Brinks truck for this kid
That seems quite expensive for 4 arbitration years. The first 4 years of the contract should be in AAV of $15MM, after all they are arbitration years. Arbitration years benefit the club for taking the time to invest, draft, and prepare him for the big leagues. The following 6 years would be his Free Agency years and he should probably be offered $30MM AAV for the first 3 and $35MM AAV for the last 3. A ten year deal should look like $255MM over 10 years.
Expensive? You realize that your suggestion has an AAV of $25.5MM over 10 years, just a hair north of my $25MM, but for over 7 years.
But its an extra 3 years at a similar amount, where in FA he could be making 30+ mil AAV for those years.
The Angels need to show that he does have a long term future in So Cal. He is a marquee draw and will fill the seats and will ultimately become the team leader along the lines of Torii. Long term deal allows him to get his folks out here. Short term deal (or no deal) they stay in NJ and wait for Mike to hook up with the Phillies or Yankees. Get it done Arte.
Don’t go for a particular number of years. I would give him a lifetime services contract for 450 million. If you wanted, some if that could even be in the form of a portion of the team, which he would get when he retires..
He shouldn’t sign anything that gives him less than $35 Mil AAV.
One thing that I don’t understand is people being willing to pay him like a free agent starting immediately. I don’t think paying much over $30M in AAV for his free agent seasons is a very big discount, considering he’s four years from hitting the market. Only one player has gotten over $30M AAV and that’s the nearly peerless Kershaw one year from free agency and on a 7-year deal. If we just say “he’s Mike Trout, he’s worth it” where does this disregard for arbitration end? If the Rays have some phenom come up and put up excellent numbers for two seasons, do they have no chance to keep him beyond the initial six years of control because any extension at that point would be ridiculous? Trout shouldn’t get more than $60-70M over the next four years, and that’s including a huge signing bonus
If Trout is paid what his WAR is considered to be worth, then the contract is unrealistic.
8 years, $200 million. Make the eighth year a player option. That way, he can still hit free agency in his prime and we’ll see what the economic realities are in MLB at that time.
Yes, Mike Trout is an excellent player. Very likely Tampa Rays will be trading Pitcher David Price for a slew of Major League Ready Prospects. The Angels should follow in Tampa Rays philosophy and trade Mike Trout for Major League Ready Prospects.
1) Jered Weaver’s alarming arm velocity drop to under 90 mph
2) Pujols isn’t getting any younger—-possibly DH until completion of his contract.
3) Who’s on first? Not to sound like an old time Abbott and Costello Comedy act but who will play first?
4) What’s on second? Howie Kendrick’s contract. Free Agency or resign?
Just check the Angels Farm System ranking of 29/30.
While it would obviously bring back one of, if not the largest return in MLB history, can those prospects that they acquire replace Trout’s 10+ WAR per year?
This will have to be a very well conceived trade. Tampa still has David Price on its roster. They will not trade Price for trash and neither should the Angels.,
Unlike the Rays the Angels do not have to trade away their talent because of future costs…with one of the largest TV contracts in MLB along with more than 3 million fans coming to the stadium each year the Angels will always have money to pay their franchise players…Trout is the type of player that comes once in a lifetime and the Angels will build around him for years to come….
We have two large albatross contracts with Pujols and Hamilton. Jered Weaver’s velocity had declined alarmingly. The Farm System is broke. The only way I logically is to trade Trout for bona fide Major League Ready Prospects.
What else should the Angels do with a Farm System that has torn asunder?
3 million fans will want to see a winning Angel team. Continue to play less than .500 ball their attendance will drop.
Good thing you are not running the Angels….Pujols and Hamilton are both healthy and will combine for 50+ homers, 200+ RBI’s with averages above .285 for 2014 and beyond…Weaver velocity has been the same for the past 2 years and he is still an ace…Scott Servais is turning the minor leagues around and Cowart, Cron, Lindsey, Sappington, Marond, Yarbrough and others will be up in the next year or two so it’s not as bad as it is made out to be…Trout will be around for at least 7 years and will sign an extension right after the start of the season….
Weaver has not been the same pitcher since he broke his hand. With you Pollyanna vision about the Angels farm system, why are they rated 29th out of 30th?
Was Hamilton injured last year? Was Pujols injured the first year as an Angel?
Do you mean Weaver when he broke his non pitching arm last season? Post All Star game his stats were 8 wins 3 loses, 2.99 ERA , .222 BA against….67 strike outs, 21 BB in 87 innings pitched…yea he was terrible…Hamilton after coming into spring training 30 pounds lighter and just quit tobacco was not right…last 2 + months of the season he hit over .300 and looked to be the hitter he was before…Pujols after having his worst April and early May in 2012 his first year with the Angels he still hit .285 with 30 HR’s, 105 RBI’s with a 4.6 war…the Angels have traded away most of their top talent in the minors the past few years for Haren, Greinke, Frieri and Freese and that is why they are rated so low, plus signing top free agents the past couple of years they have had no top picks because of free agent pick up’s…must be tough going through life with that dark cloud over your head and being a glass half full type of guy….
“.the Angels have traded away most of their top talent in the minors the past few years for Haren, Greinke, Frieri and Freese and that is why they are rated so low, plus signing top free agents the past couple of years they have had no top picks because of free agent pick up’s”.
BTW, My cloud has a silver lining. My glass when half full is a positive outlook vs. being half empty is a negative outlook.
HOW WILL YOU FIX THE ANGEL FARM SYSTEM WITHOUT TAKING ON ANY BRANDON WOOD TYPE MINOR LEAGUE’S POWERHOUSE AND IN TURN A MAJOR LEAGUE POWDER PUFF?
Scott Servais has already started turning around the minors and the Angels are holding on to their draft pics as well…it will take a couple of years but it can be done….and trading the best young ball player to come around ( Trout ) in Angel history is the worst comment I have ever read on these pages…
The Angels farm system has been depleted since 2010 because of winning 89 or more games in 7 of 8 years from 2002 through 2009. As a result, their #1 picks were low round picks. Draft picks after the top ten of the first round have about a 1 in 5 chance of ever being successful major leaguers.
Teams that win as many games a season as the Angels did in the previous decade are always going to have to turn to free agency/trades. That’s exactly what has happened to the Yankees. It will eventually happen to the Dodgers.
The Angels also held onto some of their young talent a bit too long. They should’ve traded Kendrick, Aybar, and Bourjos a long time ago for young pitching.
The farm system ratings are mostly based on how many prospects teams have in the top 100. It doesn’t actually reflect the quality of an entire farm system. The Angels’ system is still depleted, but the ranking systems should still be taken with a grain of salt.
When looking at the bigger picture, the trades the Angels made only took out a fraction of prospects over a 3 year period. There still could’ve been more top prospects left to bring up. Those other factors I listed above have a much greater impact.
I recommend looking at the numbers before saying Weaver was not the same pitcher. He slowly returned to form the further he got away from his injury. He had a 2.99 ERA after the All-Star Break and was as dominant at home as he’s always been, with a 2.59 ERA at the Big A. If an overall 1.14 WHIP (which is still very dominant) is a sign of decline then we must be living in the 1960s and I just never knew we travelled back in time. He missed 2 months. Of course he’s gonna take time to get right again. But Weaver was the usual Weaver by mid-August. His splits prove that. And I expect him to be the same old Weaver in 2014.
Weaver’s velocity has been under 90 MPH for a long time. He’s a true pitcher. He’ll live out his 5 year extension in Weaver form. If Pujols has to DH for the duration of his contract, then… okay. What’s your point? The Angels can sign a 1B if Pujols can’t play 1B anymore.
One of the few positions of good depth in the Angels’ organization is 2B. They could’ve traded Howie already. Grant Green, Taylor Lindsey, and Alex Yarbrough are all good prospects that can replace Howie. Or, sign a cheap 2B or utility infielder (or 2) and have a deep platoon.
The Angels may have a depleted farm system, but they have something the Rays don’t have: money. The Angels can go out and sign players to fill holes if they have to. But they won’t have to do that very much until after 2016 because they have lots of control over their talent through that season.
In fact, the Angels have so much control over their major league roster right now that even if they had a deep farm system, they still wouldn’t have much room to call them up. So the Angels would still likely be trading prospects (and/or a few veterans) to get pitching any way.
Name of the Game is Starting Pitching which many Baseball Blogs rate the Angels as WEAK. Farm System Ranking hovers at 29/30. You are more optimistic than the Baseball Pundits. If 2B talent is good, why hasn’t Howie Kendrick dealt during the Off-Season? Why did they trade for Ibanez? Pujols is better suited as a F/T DH. Who do you recommend to play at 1B from AAA or AA Ball?
2014 Season will be a Make-it-or-Break Year for Angel Front Office. Dodgers have found their mantra which worries Arte Moreno.
11 years, AAV of $29 million a year.
11 years, AAV of $29 million a year.
I said 15 years 500 million cuz I’m an A’s fan
I said 15 years 500 million cuz I’m an A’s fan
12 – 360 vs 10 305
7 for 250 to 275
Just going to throw this grenade out there. What would a trade package look like, and what teams could put together that package?
No grenade but let the posters play General Manager Di Pietro and 29 other GM’s to make this hypothetical trade instead of playing with asinine $$$ amounts for one human being.
I think many are in la la land thinking they should be willing to give more than they will. No player should get a ten year deal anyone!!! I said they shouldn’t give more than 6 since that is the end of his peak years and a big part of his game is speed which is going to be going by that time. I think they might give him 9 because like Hamilton and Pujols they have shown they have no common sense and will pay big for years everyone knows will be down years and risk of injury making it horrible.
Yankees, (Tanaka), Mariners,(Cano), Rangers, Fielder will regret throwing tons of money around like it is confetti. Well, our US $$ is almost there if our economy isn’t turned around. I get a good laugh reading these posts by people who may have no clue on how professional sports is on a rapid decline. If people cannot afford to pay $20.00 for parking, umpteen dollars for concessions plus ticket prices all the Fox Sport West Net Dollars will dry up fast.
No way 10/$300 works. If Trout’s agent presents that to him, he should prepare to be fired. There are players getting $30M per NOW. We all know that number might be twice as high in 10 years, when Trout will still be in his theoretical prime.
Unless the AAV is at least $35, or probably $40, there is no need to even have a discussion.
If Trout has a career ending injury, he doesn’t get much money.
Who knows he might want to pay on the east coast.. He is from right outside of Philly he might want to play for the home town team
10 Years 300 Million