Finally, after weeks of will they/won't they, Rakuten Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana announced late last night that Masahiro Tanaka will be allowed to make the jump to MLB, giving clubs the best Christmas gift they could have hoped for. Now, the question is, where will Tanaka land? The latest on the Japanese sensation..
- According to people with knowledge of the Yankees' thinking, Tanaka has long been an attractive target, especially with a rotation that could use an impact arm, writes Marc Carig of Newsday. With the retirement of Andy Pettitte, the Yankees are left with just three established starters in CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers are also among the clubs expected to make strong plays for Tanaka.
- According to NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster, Rakuten team president Yozo Tachibana acknowledged his reservations about the new posting system but said the team did not want to hold back a star player from a challenge he wishes to embrace, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The new posting system, of course, means that the Golden Eagles can't take in more than the maximum $20MM posting fee. The 25-year-old is coming off a year in which he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in the Japanese Pacific League.
- The starting pitching market has been largely held up due to clubs waiting on a resolution to the Tanaka situation and we should see some serious movement once he signs with an MLB club, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
- "I'm grateful to the team for allowing me to try. Now I've made a first step," Tanaka said, according to the Associated Press. "I hope I would receive offers from as many teams as possible so I have a wider option."
- For the Yankees to land Tanaka, they'll have to barrel past the $189MM luxury tax threshold, writes Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger. Either way, they probably can't reach that goal without a full-season suspension for Alex Rodriguez and they hope to know where they stand with that in early January.
- “[Nippon Professional Baseball] is becoming a feeder system for the M.L.B.,” Robert Whiting, who has written several books on Japanese baseball, told Ken Belson of the New York Times. “Japanese pro baseball has all but disappeared from prime time network television.”
Strongest contenders imo, in no particular order:
Yankees
Cubs
Mariners
Diamondbacks
Of course, no one predicted the Mariners would get Cano, so who knows…
A lot of people were saying if not the Yankees ,than Seattle was the likely destination for Cano
I think Cespedes is a good example of unpredictability. Obviously, the money given to Cuban prospects is different than the money given to Japanese prospects, but no one saw the A’s getting him.
I never heard that, not early in the process at least. (not saying it wasn’t mentioned)
How are the diamondbacks more of a contender than the dodgers? The dodgers have more money, have a better history (and present) with Asian players, and Los Angeles is a much more desirable city than Phoenix, especially for a Japanese player.
I left the Dodgers out because they said they were basically done. They have the money if they want to get him, but I’m just going by what the team has stated. Of course they could change their minds.
The teams I listed have expressed the strongest interest in Tanaka and/or make a lot of sense for the team.
Colletti said they’re not discussing it yet and “We’ll see if he gets posted and go from there.” Honestly I’d rather if they don’t. Because it’s going to take such a huge commitment with so many teams competing for him. Yes, the Dodgers have lots of money and yes, the same thing as 2013, when they had 8 starters and ended up needing more, could happen. But I don’t think it’s smart to, since they might have to pay Tanaka like an established MLB ace to get him.
The angels weren’t involved in Pujols or Hamilton and they snuck in a nabbed them both regretfully to this point. I think the dodgers are taking the same approach, by not feinging interest they are keeping the price down so other teams don’t feel the need to come in with a big offer.
Nobody is expressing open interest at this point and I think we should be shocked if anyone did. It doesn’t happen with other free agents.
A GM saying they are done means nothing. You can’t just go and tell all the other teams exactly what you’re going to do.
It is hard to see the Dodgers needing starting pitching. They rotation already has young and talented.
1. C. Kershaw
2. Z. Greinke
3. H. Ryu
4. D. Haren
5. J. Beckett ???
Are they going to spend $20 million for a # 3 or 4 starting pitcher?
Having a #3 or 4 starting pitcher like Tanaka is a team you dont want to face in the playoffs. LA is hungry for a championship, and I’m talking about the fans and thats what the new ownership is aiming to do imo.
Yes. I don’t see why not. He’s projected to pitch more like a #2, so that will give the Dodgers the best pitcher in baseball (Kershaw), two good #2 starters (Greinke and Tanaka), a very strong #3 (Ryu), and Haren/Beckett/Billingsley to fill out the #5 spot, long relieve, and/or fill in for injuries. Yes, the Dodgers already have a strong rotation, but why not make it even stronger if it only costs money and not any of the beloved prospects?
Rangers will sign Tanaka. Bank it.
Doubt it. He’s going to cost too much.
The Rangers said they had room for one big deal, then they got Choo. Of course teams lie about their limits all the time…
I also feel that Daniels would know when it’s ok to go over budget. I just don’t think it’s too smart if you’re going to put pressure on Darvishs chance of an extension.
Darvish extension? Isn’t he signed thru 2018 or 2019. Long time till they have to worry about him.
Jon Daniels always says they don’t think anything will happen. He said they may be done before signing Choo. It’s just GM-speak. It means nothing.
i Have an idea what if The Ranger trade Derek holland, Netfali feliz, Joey Gallo, Miichael choice, Luis Sardinas, For Giancarlo Stanton and Adam Conley. Then go sign Tanaka
Even with their surplus of starting pitching, don’t count out the Red Sox.
Sox are shedding payroll and have 6 starters.
The Red Sox have borderline top of the rotation talent in Lester, Lackey and Buchholz. They also have true 4th or 5th starters in Doubront, Dempster and Peavy.
Best case scenario for Sox is to add another top of the rotation starter, trade one or two of the bottom 3 for a shortstop and prospects, have Drew sign somewhere else to get the pick.
If the Sox could trade players they have for good prospects and be able to replace or improve on that player for just money, then they will do it. Any team would.
As a Sox fan I really don’t want this guy, something tells me that he won’t be as good as everyone thinks he will. The guy has pitched a lot of innings this past season and threw way too many pitches in a few games in the Japan series. I would rather take my chances with Garza, Ervin Santana or Arroyo.
Hope the cubs can persuade him to join. That’d be a much stronger rotation with Shark, Tanaka, and Wood head lining.
Shark is probably gonna get traded..
Both parties seem to want him to stay and I think a solid addition like tanaka may convince him to take the 5 year 55 million extension the cubs offered. Fingers crossed!
Samardzija isn’t a top of the rotation pitcher, but 5 years $55 million is absurdly low given the market for starting pitcher.
What several people, including myself, forget is that Samardzija has been a reliever since 2008, but he’s only been a starter for two years and last season was his first full year without an innings limit. You could definitely tell he was experiencing “dead arm” as early as the beginning of August from the workload, but he had been conditioning his body since the offseason began to improve his endurance for a full major league season. The biggest reason I personally believe he has the ability to be a frontline starter is because he is a competitor who fights when he’s on the mound, especially against teams who were atop their divisions, which is the type of pitcher teams hunger for in the postseason. And I agree that if ervin santana believes he can get a 100 million dollar deal, Shark will be robbing himself if he doesnt ask for much more in extension talks.
Yankees will make the splash for him. They’ve only stayed under 189 thus far because of the Tanaka fiasco. He’s been their top target for months..no doubt in my eyes he’s a Yankee by early January
Yankees pretty much need to get him. They’ve got three starters penciled in, and there are question marks about all of them (CC – can he bounce back, Kuroda – was the second half slump just a fluke, Nova – can he repeat what he did in 2013). As of now one of the weakest rotations in the MLB in my opinion, they need to do something if they plan to contend even with the new look offense.
Good luck with that 40% Luxury tax
Once they post him, how long until a team is picked?
All of the 20 mil bidders get to negotiate with him
The bidding period will last 48 hours. Once that’s expired, any team that’s posted the maximum bid (which I think we all know will be $20 million, the max allowed) will be able to negotiate with him for a 30 day window. The team that signs him then has to pay the posting fee.
If no team signs him after thirty days, he goes back to the Eagles and no posting fee is paid
Thanks man. I figured that’s how it worked, but I didn’t know how long the negotiating window was.
You would have to think it’s in Tanaka’s best interest to play teams vs. each other for the full 30 days. … Which means it could be Feb. 1 before anyone signs Garza, Jiminez or Santana. Which is crazy.
Idk. I could see that being the case, but honestly, I think there are only going to be a handful of teams who are realistically going to be offering him what he wants. It even may be a Cano situation where 2-3 teams offer a ridiculous amount of money and years and he decides quickly, or he could be talking with everyone for a month. But, although I’m sure most teams will put in the 20MM bid, I think only 3-4 will be able to afford him, so I don’t really think this is going to last the full month.
Probably 3-4 weeks.
It’s not like the old system where the player picks a team then negotiates; he’ll negotiate with all teams (that place the bid) then he picks which team he wants to sign with (just like a normal free agent)
Iwakuma and Tanaka played 5 years together. He will follow the mentor to Seattle.
If so, Seattle will be paying a lot of $$$ to finish 3rd or 4th.
Well, then so be it, Yankees paid double than that $$$ to finish 4th.
If Seattle’s prospects live up to the hype they’ll be a very good team in a couple of years.
That’s how you build a team. Tanaka alone wont make them an instant contender. But watch out as walker will be ready mid to late season. Felix, walker, kuma, tanaka,paxton. Many quality kids to trade and perhaps a stanton? *gasp
Good call. M’s should just pack it in and quit trying to supplement the roster.
I would like to see that. Seattle has been out of the loop for a while.
From what I’ve seen in my time in Japan, the mariners are easily the most popular MLB club there. Now that the new posting decision makes it more of a choice for the player on where they want to go, I’d expect Seattle to be the top of Tanaka’s list.
Do you think that it plays a roll that He might wants to follow in The legacies of other Japanese player going to Seattle (Ichiro, Sasaki, Mac Suzuki, Iwakuma,Kawasaki). Also Don’t forget Iwakuma and Tanaka were teammates for five years and Tanaka looked up to Iwakuma as his mentor. No state income tax in Washington state (unlike California and New York) Also he wants to be on the west coast. like you said Seattle is the most popular team there lastly Seattle has the money to bid maybe 45 mill left a year why not?
Dbacks will get him
I would be shocked to see him wind up with the D’backs. They aren’t one of “the usual suspects” for things like this. He’ll probably land with one of the AL East evil empires (either the Yanks or Bosox), sigh.
The Dbacks did say they were going to go hard after Tanaka.
KT does love flagging his moves to the league but I don’t see how they can afford to top NYY, LAA, TEX, CHC, SEA potential offers. Throw the Dodgers in there too if they decide to go nuts but I just don’t see it. They still have Kershaw and Hanley to pay, there’s no way they go with an unproven like Tanaka over these guys IMO.
As a Red Sox fan I do not want Tanaka, I would rather take my chances with Kenta Maeda if he ever gets posted or Garza, E.Santana or Arroyo.
They couldn’t even lure Beltran to the desert and he’s been in the US for years now. Nobody WANTS to go to the Dbacks, that’s why they have guys like Cody Ross and Eric Chavez. Notable FA signings? I think not. Arizona has to do what they’ve done for a long time now, develop and trade for controllable talent, only they need to do it smarter. Get rid of Kevin Towers for starters. With options like NY, LA, BOS, CHI, available to Tanaka the Dbacks have virtually no realistic shot at this guy.
I hope the Yanks make a convincing pitch to Tanaka. If 6/100 gets it done, great. But I can see 8/150 being required with such a large field of interest. Good luck to all the suitors.
Will Tanaka want an 8 year deal? If he believes he’ll be successful over here he’ll probably take a 6 year deal max, to ensure he reaches FA while under 31.
John Heyman reported that any deal for Tanaka won’t go past 100 for any team so good of the yankees or any team
At which point it will come down to geographic preference for Tanaka. There will easily be 4-5 teams willing to give 6/100. So he’ll basically then get to pick his city.
He actually quotes a GM as saying the opposite. “A big league general manager who doesn’t plan on pursuing Masahiro Tanaka is positive that the Japanese free agent pitcher will get more than $100 million”
The Yankees are in a box without knowing about A-Rod. The last thing you want to do is offer Tanaka $2M per more per year, then find out you lost most of A-Rod’s salary (I’m going to assume it’s going to be less than a full year) and realize you blew past the $189 by that $2M. Makes Tanaka unbelievably costly. I’m going to guess they are taking that into consideration, and I think another team will sign him.
Yankees need him just to be in the conversation of WS contenders, I think they do all they can to get him. When its all said and done money will be the deciding factor, which is very interesting to see if hes willing to go to the Cubs for the right price.
He will be in Dodger Blue if they want him
Tanaka has narrowed down his list of US agents to three and two of them have ties with the Dodgers –
Casey Close: Agent for Clayton Kershaw and Greinke
Arn Tellem: Agent for Hideo Nomo
Hopefully they’ll be a front line of: CK, Greinke, Tanaka, Ryu, Haren and in the wings for rehab are Beckett and Billingsly with The Beard & Jansen to shorten games by two innings.
They have ties to the Yankees too Close: Jeter and Teixeira, Peiper: Mo, Tallem: Giambi, so agents won’t be a factor like you think.
I am wearing blue lenses so I chose to ignore that.
Agents are ALWAYS a factor.
Yeah but what you are talking about are hitters vs. pitchers. Out of the lists of players represented by the agents in question you have 3 for the Dodgers, 4 for the Yankees. The 3 Dodgers are pitchers, 3 of the 4 Yankees are hitters. And if we look historically at higher profile Japanese pitchers, a lot of gone the way of the Dodgers: Nomo, Kuroda, Ishii came the way of the Dodgers. They also nabbed a good reliever in Saito. However, the Mariners have the privilege of having Ichiro play for them all those years, and now Iwakuma pitching marvelously for them. He would provide a nice Japanese friend on the team for him. But the Yankees have brought over Igawa (bust though), and Godzilla himself. Ichiro is currently on their team, so Tanaka may want to be on the same team as him.
Honestly, I have no idea whether Ned Colletti has any intentions of pursuing him. Will they post the fee? You bet. But how far will they be willing to go to sign him? That I am not so sure of.
We’re not meant to be sure. Colletti is a very cagey player. I’m sure ownership has told him how much he can spend to sign Tanaka, but it isn’t like Colletti is going to broadcast it.
Oh definitely. Colletti has been very coy over the last two years about signings, trades, extensions, etc. The Dodgers are in on Tanaka, it is just how much monopoly money ownership has given him to play with that is unknown.
All true, but of course it’s real money.
New York is hoping for a full season suspension of A-Rod to sign a player… I find that a bit off putting considering they will throw one of their own players under the bus to sign another one a big contract..
A-Rod threw the Yankees and MLB under the bus by cheating and parlaying his stats to another record contract that he didn’t deserve. If A-Rod had played the game honestly then I would think more derisively towards NY’s desire to unload him.
I find it hard to believe the Yanks didn’t know he was using and they paid him anyway because they want to win. They took the risk.
They knew what they were getting into when they signed that deal they need to pay up.
None of us know what the Yankees did or didn’t know when they signed him. But condemn the Yankees all that you want, I see more than a few juicers (and so called former juicers) getting big contracts and even being held up as “faces of the franchise.” If A-Rod is guilty of what he is being accused of, he’s kicking the team that pays him in the pants by continuing this circus. They have to wait for him, and pay him, and pay his replacement. You don’t have to like the Yankees to understand that. The Yankees took the risk in signing him to his ridiculous contract. No reasonable businessperson would have thought they would have had to assume this type of risk.
Someone mentioned this last night in another thread, and I found it interesting. Do you think Tanaka could take the Cespedes route? In that, what do you think about his desire for a shorter contract? Most people just assume he’s going to take the biggest contract – possibly 7 years for $120 million – but what if he took a 4-year deal instead?
Consider this. A 7-year $120 million deal would be an AAV of $17.1 million. There’s no question that it’s a ton of money. But what if he took a 4-year $70 million deal. It’s a slightly higher AAV and it puts him in line to hit free agency at 28 years old. If he is as good as advertised, then the AAV of his next contract will be significantly higher than $17.1 million – possibly in the $25 million range for 8 years. Even if he’s just an average pitcher, there’s still a chance his next deal could have an AAV of $17.1 million given the rising cost of middle of the rotation pitching. The only way Tanaka gets burnt by a 4-year deal is if he completely falls on his face or gets injured.
Is the risk worth it for him? I think it is.
I think you’re underestimating the dollar amount on a long term deal for Tanaka. With the two $200 million payroll teams (NYY and LAD) presumably going after him along with other clubs with money to spend (Cubs, Angels, Dbacks, Mariners), I can easily see him getting 6 years and $130M or 7 years and $150-160M. Keep in mind that Tanaka is the best pitcher available this offseason who doesn’t require trading prospects. In a market where a declining Lincecum gets a $17.5M AAV, a $17.1M AAV for Tanaka seems very low.
He’s never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues. Next year will be an adjustment and he may look more like a high upside rookie than a front of the rotation ace. Also, Merry Christmas.
He will be a Mariner. 5 for 110mm 🙂
They’re going to have to go a lot higher than that to pry him from LA or NY. Maybe 7 years for $150M.
Could be but I still say the Mariners sign him, they have to really at any cost just to save face from the Cono signing.
Is that so? I don’t see the Dodgers going too high with their already crazy payroll and Clayton-fest coming up next year. And NY is on the East coast (sound like he prefers West) and also has luxury tax issues to consider.
Greinke can opt out after 2015, when he’ll be 31. Dodgers could let him walk, slot Tanaka as their number 2, save money, and get younger. Kershaw seems intent on testing free agency, so anything can happen. They’ll probably trade an outfielder after next season, & Billingsley and Beckett are off the books. It actually makes long term sense.
I love all the predictions, no one can really say one is more wrong than the other. At the end of the day I suspect the Yankees will offer him the largest contract, but that doesn’t mean the most money will win his services. Each landing spot has their pros and cons. It could be location, media attention, friends, etc.
I really cannot wait because this is going to get super interesting post holidays/new year.
These Asian players always make me wonder if their effectiveness will remain. Kenshin Kawakami was a bust right from the start and Dice-K didn’t last forever either. You can’t get past the fact that the game is different over there and not all of the players will succeed or succeed for very long.
Ichiro went to 10 consecutive All Star Games.
If we study the odds, american players have a MUCH higher fail rate than do japanese imports, the only downside is teams are required to pay a premium, but its a worthy investment. Lets say Tanaka posts numbers 60-70 percent as good as hedid in Japan, that would still be a sucessful transition. As far as predictions of his landing spot: Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, maybe Snakes– dont know– but definitely not the Cubs, no chance to compete there, no big market for his big personality.
The Chicago Cubs aren’t a big market????
Ryu did fine although its was his rookie season and teams didn’t really have film on him, and Korean league I don’t think is as good as NPL. How did darvish do compared to Tanaka in NPL?
Calling Nova an established starter might be a stretch…
Not really. League average pitcher over his career, those don’t exactly grow on trees, plus he’s young, cheap and still has a bit of upside. Perfectly fine guy to have at the middle or back-end of a good rotation.
3.10 ERA overall, 2.78 ERA in the second half. I think he’s good to go.
That’s one sample size. So far Nova has been pitching in the majors since 2010 right? He only has one truly full season under his belt (2011), and has a career 4.04 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 3.97 xFIP. To be considered an “established starter”, I believe you need to have at least 3 years of 175+ IP under your belt before that. So far, Nova has been somewhat inconsistent, but he does have that upside that people talk about. We’ll see he he fleshes out.
So when does the posting actually start?
Blue jays have disappointed before with international
Players I think it’s time the Blue jays step it up and get Tanaka.
Why Cubs? Aren’t they rebuilding?
Because he is a 25 year old who, if he stays as good in the MLB, ace that you would have for 7 or so years. That is plenty of time for the rebuilding to finish and make pushes for the playoffs.
Wrong thread, my bad. I don’t see Cubs using all their money to get this guy though.
Not saying Tanaka won’t be good, but Japanese pitchers have an inconsistent history. For every Darvish, there’s also a Matsuzaka (and remember that even Darvish had a 3.97 ERA his first year). $100 mil seems like crazy money for a guy who could be anywhere from a #3 starter to a guy out of the league in a few years.
Of course it is risky, every contract to a pitcher is especially risky but market demand is what makes the price so high, along with the potential of a front line starter to shore up a rotation for years to come.
Guess what Ken Belson? MLB is the highest level of competition for baseball in the world. ALL other baseball leagues are feeder systems because America pays more, that’s just the way it is. And by the way, Japanese pro baseball HAS NEVER been on prime time network television anywhere outside of Japan and maybe Taiwan, so what are you talking about man?
I suspect Whiting meant that NPB is no longer on prime time network television in Japan.
Yankees seem the clear favorite followed by cubs/dbacks…time will tell.
Yanks
LAD
Mariners
Cubs
And i had a hard time putting the cubs on there. I dont think Tanaka will go there.
I don’t know which team he wants to play for, but if your bid is a lot higher than other bids a player will consider it.
Really hope he doesnt go to LAD.I can dream about him with the nats… that rotation…
Once again MLB just placed the wool over the eyes of foreign baseball. complete robbery and all because they want to stick it to the Yankee’s . People need to realize without the Yankees baseball is done
Thank God Tanaka doesn’t have Scott Boras as his agent…. Seattle has a chance now