After the Rakuten Golden Eagles made the long-awaited decision to post ace Masahiro Tanaka, the posting period opened this morning. Any team that is willing to pay his former club a posting fee of $20MM will have the right to negotiate with Tanaka over the next 30 days (a full refresher on the new rules can be found here). Tanaka's posting period comes to a close on Jan. 24 at 4pm CT, meaning that there could be as many as 700 more hours of drama, rumors and speculation regarding his ultimate destination. Here are today's Tanaka-centric links…
- MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that teams see Tanaka not as a seven-year deal but rather as an investment to make an immediate impact that could yield a spot in the 2014 playoff picture. The Yankees would like to make an offer to close the bidding process before it truly begins, writes Justice, but several other teams likely feel the same.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while Tanaka's new agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras' public reputation of bargaining hard, he does have that reputation within the industry. Close is no stranger to large deals, as he represents Derek Jeter and Zack Greinke among others.
- Sherman also runs down a list of eight teams that he feels to be the Yankees' most serious competition for Tanaka: the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Mariners.
- In a piece for FOX Sports, Gabe Kapler writes that he spoke to one Major League GM who thought Tanaka would sign for something in the six-year, $105MM neighborhood (not including the posting fee). Kapler feels that Tanaka's age and the potential bidding war will up the price to something in the range of seven years and $125MM (plus the $20MM posting fee). He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors.
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post can't imagine Tanaka signing for anything less than $100MM (Sulia link).
- The next 30 days will tell us if the Dodgers are hitting their spending limit — self-imposed or otherwise — or if their lack of big spending thus far in the offseason has merely been as a result of waiting for Tanaka, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Hernandez notes that the team already has five players under control through 2017 and would like that number to rise to seven with extensions to Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez.
If the Eagles president decided to post Tanaka one week later than yesterday, then the rumor mill would have been completely silent till then. There is not one other story buzzing around.
So if the yankees offer up 7/120 at first, u think that would be enough to start to knock out some of the competition?
Probably enough to knock out several teams. I would guess that at that point there would be around 3-4 teams still in on him. My guess: Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox
From my understanding, the D’Backs are going all in and have the cash to do it. I’d add them to your list.
I’d put my money on the Cubs to land him. Their payroll is pretty much non existent compared to where it has been. And they are stockpiling young talent at every level in the minors. 4 of the games top prospects will be up either next year or 2015. All they need is top of the rotation pitching to be contenders. Enter Tanaka.
The Cubs are seriously bad. Only the historical badness of the Astros and Marlins are keeping them from being the worst team in baseball. Yes they have a nice farm, but only half of those guys are going to pan out and they’re all position players. They’ve got a LONG way to go. Tanaka wont’ even begin to do it for them.
They are doing it right. You can’t get better and compete at the same time. Drafting for 3 or 4 years in the top 5 picks is how you start to get better. Then you also buy low on former top prospects, hoping a few of them pan out. Finally you stockpile young international Free Agents. We saw the Cubs spend huge amounts the last few years on the international side. Because of the new CBA, it limits what large market teams (like the Cubs) can do during the first year player draft.
The Cubs will be in all the way on Tanaka, not because he is their missing piece, but because this is part of their plan. Tanaka’s talent and age fit the mold of what Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been doing since they took the reigns. Tanaka, along with Bryant, Soler, Baez, Almora, Edwards, Alcantara, Vogelbach, and Vizcaino, will all contribute with the guys they already have at the MLB level.
They aren’t doing it “right,” they are doing it in the small market way like the A’s, Rays, and Twins (0 World Series titles between them). The Cubs are a large market team and should be rebuilding on the fly like the Red Sox and Dodgers. I’m not saying lose the farm completely. I’m saying when you have the payroll flexibility of the Cubs, the farm should not be the main source of rebuilding.
And BTW, the Cubs will be lucky if 50% of those names you mentioned are worth anything more than a cup of coffee. Most prospects fail, that’s a fact.
I guess you missed the part about collecting top 5 picks…
They will spend once the core is in place. That’s how you win consistently long term. They tried it the other way for 100 years with no success. The Dodgers havent won anything. The Red Sox and Yankees didnt buy their championships as much as people have you believe. They bought and built around a solid core.
Collecting a ton of young, top shelf, talent IS the way to go.
If they can get him, expect the Cubs to get much more aggressive in the next two years. They have young talent to bring up or trade and a TON of money to spend. They are just sitting back waiting for the right time to strike right now.
If Cubs hope to compete by 2015 then Tanaka is a must have. While Cubs have a really nice farm system it is seriously lacking in pitching.
The only thing thing is Tanaka willing to go to a team that will never be a contender…he certainly will help but not be the answer. Especially a team that thinks shark is an ace
I would put serious money against the Dbacks having the cash to compete at that $$ level. Whatever they have left to spend is what they have. Yanks and Cubs can just beat it if they’re determined, and they are.
And I’ll add the Toronto Blue Jays. Their corporate owner, Rogers Communications, is the wealthiest of all MLB owners (and that says a lot) and the number one team need is a starting pitcher. The Jays front office has been very quiet lately on specific plans, which is typical for them. They’ve also been quiet on big signings, so the vault remains full. They typically have a five-year limit for contracts but have hinted there may be some flexibility. The Blue Jays front office scouted Tanaka in Japan and if they’re in, I expect them to be in big time. Five to seven years at $25 million wouldn’t faze their bottom line, so I doubt there’s anything the Yankees could do to scare them off. As in any auction, it will be interesting to see which bidders drop out and where. There’s a book to be written; let’s hope someone’s writing it…
7/120 would likely get signed tonight.
Not sure, that is enough aav for the term. He could likely get 115-120/6 years and then hit the market again at 31-32 years of age and cash in again.
If I am Tanaka and I really believe in my ability, then I am looking for a 5 year deal with the maximum amount of aav (ex. 100-110). I make bank and then cash in again at the age of 30 after salaries have inflated for five years.
Most of the big bats have signed. Tanaka and the Eagles have pretty much held the pitching market hostage. Things will pick up over the next couple weeks and we will see Garza, Santana and Jimenez sign plus the market for Price & Shark will heat up heading into February.
i hope somebody gets burned on this guy need a good laugh
Seattle and Cano wasn’t enough?
Cano was overpaid true enough, but at least Cano has a proven major league record. Tanaka is pure speculation. Many scouting reports from Major League scouts question his arm strength.
With the splitter that Tanaka has arm strength isnt a priority.
that kind of narrows who is going to go after him then as well: The Angels, the Twins, the Giants, the Reds, the Padres and the Rays are among the many major league teams that discourage their pitchers from developing a splitter, citing health reasons as well as the belief that throwing it too much can reduce the velocity of a pitcher’s fastball.
My thoughts exactly…. This has bust written all over it. IMO of course. He might end up a Cy Young winner…
Got all the bases covered yet?
I am not sure why you would want a team to get burned. Unless, it is because the team you are a fan of has no shot at him. Tanaka succeeding makes the MLB product better, and more fun for fans to watch. Why root against that?
I want the Angels and the Yankees to get burned. Big money should never be handed out to unproven talent.
Yankees kind of have a thing of picking up random guys that are past their prime but are able to squeeze a year or two of actual good baseball out of them…
Yuck, can’t believe I said something positive about them Yanks lol
They do. Being a Red Sox fan who lives 45 mins from Yankee Stadium has supplied me with some good baseball and mixed emotions.
Why? Is it better to hand it out to aging/declining players?
No, but there’s a reason that draft spending just got capped. Unproven players are risky. There’s literally no guarantee how he’ll handle the transition.
The reason it capped is that owners didn’t want to pay and the players union was willing to give in that area in order to get elsewhere (which is not surprising considering it didn’t affect any of the current members of the union).
The NFL did it too. Guaranteeing massive amounts to unproven talent isn’t a good idea. I’m not saying paying old guys a ton of money is better, but that doesn’t change the risk factor in handing out an 9 figure deal to a guy who’s never pitched in the majors.
Sox did to Matsuzaka. How’d you feel then?
Personally, when the Yanks foolishly went after Igawa, I hated the move because I saw him nothing more than a 4th/5th starter at best. It was a knee-jerk reaction after the Sox landed Matsuzaka. At least Tanaka has talent and upside.
The Red Sox got burned by him no doubt. He decided to play hurt in the 2009 WBC and never recovered. His 08 season was very fun to watch. I’ll remember Dice K fondly for some things and I’ll shake my head at others.
As a Sox fan, I bet that season was fun to watch because he escaped many jams that year. His ERA and record(18-3) certainly didn’t match his peripherals.
It was a lot of fun. He’d walk the bases loaded and then strike out the side. Nerve wracking but certainly exciting.
Well that’s the only positive year the rest well I don’t think the redsox want to remember the awful seasons following. This guys walk totals went through the roof.
After that he showed up out of shape for Spring Training and got himself injured during the 2009 WBC and decided to hide it from everyone. His behavior surrounding all that was atrocious.
he’d throw a 150 pitches in about 5 innings than he’d be finished
He also criticized the Sox handling of his rehab.
After that year he was hurt throughout his tenure with the Sox–every year he missed time, IIRC.
I’d say Tanaka has proven a lot in Japan. And Darvish showed that what happens in Japan doesn’t necessarily stay in Japan. I expect Tanaka to be a solid 2 or 3 starter and a good investment for whomever.
So 100+ million for a number 3 is a good investment?
Darvish had a great year last year and there are several Japanese players who have made the switch and have played great baseball. There’s a bunch who haven’t though. None have required a 9 figure risk taking the posting fee out of the equation.
He might be a #1 on some teams.
How many baseball players are good investments?
Teams are businesses. If profitable, why try to win? Just preach parity. But if you’re trying to win, take risks. And show your fan base you tried. It’s why i believe Cespedes, Puig and Chapman should have been bid up higher.
But Tanaka is 25 and has an unmatched record of wins in 2013. But it’s not about the Japanese league. It’s about his stuff. Scouts and execs have taken a look. We’ll know soon what they saw. For a rich team he’s a freebie (not wasting a draft pick or prospects). For a rich team that owns its own TV, it’s more than a freebie. At least 2 of the prospective bidders fill that bill: the Yankees with YES and the Blue Jays with Rogers Sportsnet (dozens of cable sports channels, local TV and radio). Plus, adding a Tanaka, and then maybe Jimenez, will sell somebody a bunch of season’s tickets.
Is it a gamble, a calculated risk or a hedged bet? The teams have had experienced eyes on him. What they do will answer some questions. If I were the Yankees or Blue Jays I would bid higher than all the rest.
Because bidding for an international talent and spending 150mil on a guy who has zero MLB experience is bad for the game in it’s own right.
How so?
They should have to enter the pool with every other player and get drafted. Otherwise these large market teams not only get the best Free Agents, now they get the best international players too.
The MLB needs an international first year player draft. At least for these players like Darvish, Tanaka, Cespedes, Soler, and Chapman, who are all young. Otherwise, the league won’t ever have parody and the rich get richer and the worst teams never get better.
That’s a very ethnocentric view though. Tanaka is an international superstar. He has put in his time as a professional athlete and you’re looking to treat him as a college player because the Padres MIGHT be able to sign him. No international team is going to post their player, now for a max of $20 million and then have the player also get screwed by not choosing their team or salary.
Small market teams usually sit in a superior situation in the domestic draft. I might be able to see a defected Cuban player being entered into a sort of international draft, but not a Japanese one. And at that point, it’s just silly to penalize players who risk their life to come here as opposed to established international talent. Not to mention, not all small market teams are created equally. Quite frankly, the Marlins shouldn’t have an advantage to signing top quality talent on the cheap because they are worse for baseball than any big market spender.
And teams like the Yankees already have to give small market teams a large pay check which is SUPPOSED to be added into the roster and rarely is, plus they have to overpay athletes because of enormous taxes in NY to begin with. Not asking for sympathy for the Yankees by any means, but simply looking at things dollar for dollar big to small market and all things created equal is not accurate.
Not sure how I see how it is bad for the game, but I definitely see how it is bad for the player. Pretty sure 25-30 year olds deserve to pick where they want to live after having already gone through a draft in their original league.
Also, not sure it is just the rich teams that get the players. Look at your examples (Chapman – CIN; Cespedes – OAK; Darvish – TEX). Those aren’t exactly your Cubs, Yanks, Sox, Dogers.
Then there wouldn’t be as much of an incentive to come to MLB. Their signing bonuses would be capped and they’d be under team control for years.
The incentive would be to play with the best in the world. A draft doesn’t stop foreign players from coming to the NBA…
Those foreign players are entering the NBA draft at the ages that their contemporaries in the States are getting drafted. Not to mention that a high number of them continue to stay in Europe.
If Japanese players stayed with their teams in Japan until their contracts ran out, they’d be 26-28 years-old. Of course, without the posting system, there’d be absolutely no incentive for the Japanese teams to release the players from their contracts in order to enter the “international draft”.
Didn’t the 3rd or 4th lowest payroll team in baseball sign Cespedes?
Well, he didn’t get the kind of money that Darvish and Tanaka will get. If I remember right, he didnt come with all of the hype either. Basically, in this system, if a big market team wants a player, the smaller teams have ZERO chance. Period.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Cubs fan, I like some advantages to big market clubs, but I’m also a fan of the game. Parody makes the game great.
Some say the Cubs have been a parody of a baseball team for too many years. Parity does not “make the game great”. Teams make choices, they carefully build their squads. The biggest spender is not necessarily the biggest winner.
Didn’t the 3rd or 4th lowest payroll team in baseball sign Cespedes?
There will never be parity (parody, however, is quite common)… There will always be players who under and over achieve, scouts who get it wrong one way or the other, fans who don’t turn out and cost their teams, other teams whose fans turn out when they shouldn’t and thus give their team extra resources. Wealthy teams over-pay and cost themselves future spending opportunities. Some teams are run smarter or get lucky. It’s not all about money. Trying to micro-manage parity is a huge exercise in failure. The best example is government.
As long as it’s not the Red Sox!
Does Tanaka have to wait until the posting period ends on Jan. 24 to sign/announce the contract, or can he sign with a team at any time during the posting period? Obviously, it’s probably in his best interest to wait and let the bidding go up, but I’m just curious.
He can sign at any time during the posting period with any team that post the $20 million bid.
Is that right? That would be surprising to me.
There is no bidding period. He is now a free agent and can sign with any team over the next 30 days. The signing team then owes Rakuten the posting fee.
Agree that Tanaka should get less than 20 million a season.
All those points seem reasonable. I would only question the teams the author seems to think pose the greatest risk to the Yankees, I can see the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels. the others including the Red Sox I see on the outside looking in. The Red Sox have a pretty good stable of starters as it is. I just don’t see them going all in at this point. The Rangers, Mariners and Phillies according to reports on this very site would need to unload some payroll to fit Tanaka in. The Diamondbacks are a long shot in my opinion. But we’ll see
If you’re looking for a long-shot mystery team, watch out for the Phillies.
Just don’t see it without them unloading a bunch f salary first. Baseball-Reference has them projected for just their 25 man roster at $160MM (without Tanaka). Add in the balance of their 40 man roster and about $11MM MLB charges all teams for benefits for tax purposes and they are at $$175MM (without Tanaka). And their 2015 and 2016 commitments aren’t any better,
I’ll admit that I didn’t know anything about Tanaka aside from his stats prior to reading Kapler’s article.
Interesting that his fastball is supposedly flat. I wonder if he’ll be able to make the jump to the show. If not, this could be one disastrous contract. Maybe the one that finally knocks the Yankees on their [bottoms] for a season or two.
The A-Rod contract was supposed to be that Yankee-killer contract, but Mr. Selig is helping his golden team get out from under that.
Thanks Bud!
I don’t know what Tanaka’s other pitches are, but I assume if he can utilize his other pitches to get hitter out he probably wont need to rely on is fastball much
Basically everybody needs a decent fastball to get by in the majors for very long.
We do realize that darvish throws all off-speed stuff right
I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t call 42.6% fastballs “all off-speed stuff.”
CountLeague Average: Fastballs
3-0……94%
3-1……84%
2-0……81%
3-2……70%
2-1……69%
1-0……69%
0-0……69%
1-1……58%
0-1……57%
2-2……56%
0-2……54%
1-2……51%
Nothing even in the 40’s
League average for starters is ~56%, so yes, Darvish throws fewer fastballs, but he still throws them nearly half the time, and if he didn’t have an at least halfway decent one people would just sit on it and forget about all of his off-speed stuff.
42% is not nearly half…Also, whats the difference between a “decent fastball” and a “halfway decent fastball”…..all im saying is a pitcher who was second in the cy young voting last year is well below the league average for fastballs % which proves if you have great off-speed pitches then you dont need a good fastball
No, it doesn’t even come close to proving that. Darvish has a decent fastball; it’s not a good fastball, so he doesn’t throw it a lot, but it’s still his most used pitch by far (twice as often as his next most common pitch), and if it wasn’t any good he would have a very hard time succeeding.
I’m not saying Tanaka’s fastball isn’t good enough – there’s no way of knowing if it is or not at this point – but I know there are concerns about it, and if it’s bad enough it’s not going to matter how good his other pitches are because even a guy like Darvish has to throw his fastball pretty often, and if it’s bad enough guys will just wait for it.
Okay I agree for the most part people need a fastball but people have had success without one
People have success without a good fastball, but I don’t think anyone can have success without a major league caliber fastball; fastballs aren’t like other pitches where you can just not throw one if yours isn’t good enough.
I know im digging deep here but the big name i think of is wakefield…. a low 70’s fastball in not major league caliber. Also if you consider a sinker a “fastball” then he will be fine because what ive heard is he has a great sinker
Knuckleballers don’t follow the same rules as conventional pitchers for pretty obvious reasons.
Simpson’s Paradox?
CountLeague Average: Fastballs
3-0……94%
3-1……84%
2-0……81%
3-2……70%
2-1……69%
1-0……69%
0-0……69%
1-1……58%
0-1……57%
2-2……56%
0-2……54%
1-2……51%
Nothing even in the 40’s
I think you misunderstand his grammar. He says Darvish throws all the off-speed pitches, not that he throws them all the time. Indeed, the off-speed stuff makes the fastball harder to hit. Tanaka offers great accuracy, and his unbeaten record speaks volumes about consistency.
No, if you read the rest of the conversation it’s pretty clear that that’s not what he was saying. Plus, “darvish throws all off-speed stuff” is pretty straight forward.
When he says “darvish throws all off-speed stuff” I take it to mean that he can throw all off-speed pitches, not that every pitch he throws is off-speed. Why my interpretation? because I’ve watched Darvish pitch and know he throws fastballs. So, then, presumably would ‘gatman’.
You may be correct. However, I did read all the rest at the time and to me it wasn’t clear. Too many people don’t ensure they are explicit in their communications. But it’s still hard to imagine someone claiming Darvish throws no fastballs when in the rest of his comments he fluidly discussed the 42.6% fastball rate.
Well, for one, you can take it to mean whatever you want I suppose, but he explicitly said he throws all off-speed stuff, which can really only mean one thing. And anyway, he doesn’t throw all of the off-speed pitches, so even if you want to assume he was being literal, your interpretation wouldn’t work either.
And two, the whole conversation was clearly about the amount of fastballs he throws, and the rate at which he throws them; at no point did he even actually talk about how many different off-speed pitches he throws.
I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t call 42.6% fastballs “all off-speed stuff.”
We do realize that darvish throws all off-speed stuff right
One thing is for sure. Someone is going to have to over pay to secure this guy.
I think he ends up in pinstripes but not without a lot of $$$. 7/125 seems like a good prediction.
I see the Yankees and Dodgers pushing hard, but Angels gonna Angels and over pay by $20M.
I see a 10 year and 200 million contract winning the deal.
No way he gets that amount of $ or years
Would he even want that many years?
Yankees sign him, and go on a spending spree after they pass 189 MM
I see them giving him a Choo deal 7yr/ 140 million and that should close the deal
Didn’t close the deal for Choo. He settled for less…
I know they didn’t close it I meant that type of deal
Aren’t they already past 189? (Maybe that’s because Im still including Arod)
The Yankees as of today with all their signings, arbitration players and pre-arb players estimates along with what MLB charges teams are at $183MM +/- without A-Rod.
Is that assuming A-Rod misses the whole year?
YES.
YES.
I haven’t really been paying much attention to that whole thing; is that still pretty much the expectation, that he’ll get at least the full season?
I don’t have a clue. If I had to guess I think the arbitrator will cut the suspension to something in the neighborhood of 100 games maybe even 65 which is what Braun got. But flip a coin at this point. The good part is we should find out within about the next 2 weeks +/-.
Thanks. I have to wonder how much that whole process is holding up the market for certain free agents; I’ve heard that Drew, for example, has heard that they would be interested in him pending the outcome of the A-Rod hearings.
I hope not. Not a fan of Drew, AND I’m certainly not fond of giving the Sox an extra supplemental pick in the draft, either.
Well, unless the Sox re-sign Drew they are going to get that pick regardless, and if the Yankees sign him the lost pick would come after the supplemental round, so it would actually be hurting the Sox in relation to most other places Drew could sign (most other places would move the Sox supplemental picks up a spot, but the Yankees signing him wouldn’t).
No it doesn’t. The Red Sox still get a supplemental pick. It’s just the Yankees lose their 2nd round pick. The pick the team loses has nothing to do with the team not getting the supplement pick
Right, but if any team who still has a non-protected first round pick, or supplemental pick, signs Drew they lose that pick, which moves the Red Sox pick up one spot.
They might move up one spot in the supplement pick list but they never move out of the supplement list of picks.
Right, yeah. I just meant that the Yankees signing Drew is about the worst case scenario for the Sox (not that it’s a huge difference, but just about anyone else would be better).
Right, but if any team who still has a non-protected first round pick, or supplemental pick, signs Drew they lose that pick, which moves the Red Sox pick up one spot.
The Yankees already gave that 2nd round pick when they signed McCann. They Red Sox may get may get an extra draft pick, but it is not taken from the Yankees directly. The Yankees also gave up picks when they signed Beltran and Ellsbury, So we lost 3 but it was really two picks since Granderson got signed by the Mets.
No they haven’t they lost their 1st round pick and their 2 compensation picks that they got when the Mets signed Granderson and the Mariners signed Cano.. They lost their 1st round pick when they signed McCann and like I said their 2 compensation picks when they signed Beltran and Ellsbury. They still have their 2nd round pick.
That sounds about right, I left out Cano from my equation. I guess I’ve just totally tried to forget about him when he left.
Yes, I’m aware of that. That’s why I’m hoping that Boston will re-sign Drew, but I think they’ve been holding off hoping that somebody else will sign so they can get a supplemental pick in the draft.
As far as compensation, like UYF said, it will have no bearing. Sox will get a pick in the supplemental round.
I’m actually hoping the sox re-sign Drew. I’m a bigger fan of the draft, and prospects than most people, so it’d hurt ‘losing’ another pick, but I think Drew + Bogaerts on the left side is significantly better than Bogaerts + Middlebrooks + a draft pick.
No question that Drew + Bogaerts > Bogaerts + Middlebrooks, but it all depends on the pick if that statement still holds true; of course the pick wouldn’t likely pay dividends next year. I’m sure the Sox would’ve upgraded SS/3B if Middlebrooks continued to struggle.
Sox have been very good drafting in that supp. round/2nd round area…Lester, Buccholz, Lowrie.
Yeah, they have been pretty good, but a pick is very volatile, and you have to way the risk and the cost/benefit of an average pick, not just look at the potential.
As a Yankee fan, I know all about how volatile picks are(CJ Henry, Andrew Brackman, Cito Culver). Some of our(Yanks) best work has been in the later rounds(David Robertson, Austin Jackson).
However, the more you have, the better chances you have of landing a solid player.
Yeah, that’s definitely true, but I think one pick should be a minor consideration when you’re talking about a fairly significant upgrade to your current major league team.
I’ve read the same thing. But I’m not sure Drew is a realistic option for the Yankees. He’s never played any position other then SS. I can see the Yankees signing Reynolds if he’s still available when the Yankees find out something about A-Rod.
Yeah, I thought the same thing. I do wonder though if signing Drew would finally signal the end of Jeter playing SS; I have a hard time seeing them actually doing it because of Jeter being such a big name in New York, but I think it would be the best move baseball-wise (Drew is a well above average defensive SS, and Jeter hasn’t been much good there for quite a while now, and would probably look a lot better defensively at 2B/3B).
That would really be the only reason to sign Drew. BTW, I do think this is Jeter’s last year regardless.
Yeah, I think he probably retires after this year, but I don’t see them moving him off of SS to another position (I think he plays SS until he retires).
I agree UNLESS Jeter really starts to struggle. But even then they would probably just sit him more. Hopefully if he (Jeter) starts to see himself not carrying his weight so to speak he talks to the Yankees and save them and himself the embarrassment.
Yeah, you would hope so, but major league players in general are a very proud bunch, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he was too proud to admit it to himself, let alone the team/fans. (that’s not me trying to say something bad about Jeter, just that professionals at the top of any field tend to be that way because they know they are among the best in the world, and especially in sports you actually want a guy to have that kind of attitude)
I agree UNLESS Jeter really starts to struggle. But even then they would probably just sit him more. Hopefully if he (Jeter) starts to see himself not carrying his weight so to speak he talks to the Yankees and save them and himself the embarrassment.
The sooner the better. For one, it’ll put an end to the ordeal. Secondly, Yanks will know which way to go in the off-season.
I don’t have a clue. If I had to guess I think the arbitrator will cut the suspension to something in the neighborhood of 100 games maybe even 65 which is what Braun got. But flip a coin at this point. The good part is we should find out within about the next 2 weeks +/-.
I haven’t really been paying much attention to that whole thing; is that still pretty much the expectation, that he’ll get at least the full season?
ah okay. thanks.
He will sign with dodgers.
Do the Phillies have a legit chance of landing Tanaka if so who would he replace I the roatation?
If phils signed Tanaka I would believe they would try to trade Cliff Lee to clear some payroll
Or Papelbon and Kendrick together for some bullpen pitchers to clear up soar and salary
or a cliff lee, papelbon package
If the Phillies landed Tanaka, they wouldn’t trade there 2nd and 4th best pitcher. It really wouldn’t do much for them other then have another big contract in Tanaka to complain about. If the Phillies landed him, They’d go all in with Hamels, Lee, Tanaka, Kendrick and MAG and I could see them targeting a 3B/SU by the end of the offseason, and I’m not talking Michael Young/Brad Lincoln. More like Huston Street and Chase Headley.
If the Phillies landed Tanaka, they wouldn’t trade there 2nd and 4th best pitcher. It really wouldn’t do much for them other then have another big contract in Tanaka to complain about. If the Phillies landed him, They’d go all in with Hamels, Lee, Tanaka, Kendrick and MAG and I could see them targeting a 3B/SU by the end of the offseason, and I’m not talking Michael Young/Brad Lincoln. More like Huston Street and Chase Headley.
As a Red Sox fan, I’d love to take Lee off of Amaro’s hands so he can go after Tanaka…
But where would he fit in the Red Sox rotation, you’d have to trade a pitcher to free up room for him. Or just release Dempster.
If you can add a pitcher of Lee’s caliber you make room. Any of Doubront, Dempster, or Peavy would be fair game to move if they need room.
Probably not, it seems they’ve already hit their payroll limit. Would need to trade off some $$
If they need to clear up payroll to afford him, then no. No team will trade with them with Amaro’s ridiculous demands (asking for the farm system and asking to cover whole contract) on his players. If they want Tanaka, they really need to reduce their trade demands, especially with the likes of Papelbon.
Money wise, the Phillies would have to do a bit of shifting around and I don’t think Rube is ready to drop that kind of money on a pitcher new to MLB. While Japan’s Nippon league is still good, the hitters there are nothing like they are here. I’m glad the Royals don’t have the money to even think about Tanaka. I’m thinking he’ll be a long ball liability the first year or two, could even last longer. Just sayin 🙂
The question is do the Phillies have any chance of being a contender in 2014?
I mean they have spent a lot of money since 2009 and have gotten much less then the desired results they intended!
They were pretty great from 2007-2011, I think those days are gone but they should contend for a wild card spot this season.
this has all the markings of a bad contract that the angels love to offer
I can see the Yankees offering 6 years/$105MM = $17.5MM out of the gate. I can also see them willing to up the AAV on a 6 year deal to $19 or $20MM per. And selling the point to both Tanaka and his agent that would still allow Tanaka to be a FA at 30 years old. Plenty young enough to make another killing in FA if he pitches as well as they hope,
All I know is that we need him in our rotation.
1. Sabathia
2. Tanaka
3. Kuroda
4. Nova
5. Pineda
That’s a good rotation
Assuming they get Tanaka and he lives up to expectation and Pineda finally pitches without any pain. You’re right.
If everyone is good, then it’s good.
That goes for most any rotation.
That was kinda my point.
its ok enough for this year. If they get Tanaka, next year they should go all in on starting pitching (Brett Anderson, Hisashi Iwakuma,Brandon Morrow, Max Scherzer, James Shields, Clayton kershaw) prediction is 2015 they’ll win the WS
The only problem with your list is their current clubs hold team options on Anderson, Iwakuma and Morrow for the 2015 season. The chance of Kershaw making it to FA is slim and none and in my opinion “slim” left town. Losing Kershaw would be a PR nightmare for the Dodgers.
Not as bad as the Yankees losing Cano.
Yankee fans don’t seem to miss Cano, Dodger fans would revolt if the team let 26 year old Kershaw walk.
Most Yankees fans realize Cano was chasing the dollars and really was holding up the Yankees. I don’t see many Yankee fans at all all that upset with Cano leaving. In fact just the opposite and I’ve been a Yankees fan a long, long time.
I’m not to upset he left either especially with the amount he left for either, it is what it is. Yankees didn’t need another large contract like that anyway. For real Yankees fans it’s not a big loss but fans abroad who think the Yankees aren’t becoming more fiscally responsible might think why not keep him. Look how many times Levin or the Steinbrenners went around Cashman to sign contract’s like Rafeal Soriano, or that massive A-Rod contract.
My best guess is he goes to Angels, Phillies, or Yankees. Angels love to over pay, Phillies still have their dumb GM Amaro who will probably throw the most ridiculous offer at Tanaka, and then the Yankees for obvious reasons. One of these teams will end up throwing the most ridiculous offer at Tanaka.
Rube wouldn’t pay for a Japanese pitcher. He’d rather overpay on a #3/4 starter instead. Then go after 2 backup catchers, 3 1B and 21 OFers. Besides, to get Tanakah Phillies would have to do some moving around and I don’t see them doing that, yet, maybe after next season. I’d say frontrunners are Dbacks, Angels (although I really see them reuniting with Santana), NYY, LAD and a very slight chance for the Cubs (although Theo would probably include a mansion, 7 cars, and 20 blondes, or brunettes and all the rice he can eat lol)
One of the reasons the Blue Jays could go for him is to cement connections with Japanese broadcasters. The Blue Jays owner, the Rogers Communications conglomerate, owns a half dozen national cable sports networks across Canada, plus local TV stations in big markets and lots of radio. They can gain from a Tanaka signing with ratings on all these outlets, too. They also own 35% of the NHL’s Toronto Maple Leafs (which includes the NBA Raptors and soccer’s Toronto FC).
And Rogers is not afraid to spend money — they just spent $5.2 billion for 12 years of exclusive NHL national rights in Canada — so bumping up the Blue Jays would be a meaningful investment, too. If they don’t pursue Tanaka, it’s only because they don’t want to, because they sure need a pitching boost.
The Seattle Mariners could sign Masahiro Tanaka ….
It’s a possibility but they have other needs that need to be address. I would love to see them get him but I just see the Yankees going hard to sign him.
They could, but that still wouldn’t solve a glaring problem for the Mariners, their lack of offense. Cano by himself doesn’t solve that not when you consider they lost Ibanez and most likely Morales. Both those guys gave the Mariners a lot of offense.
The Mariners would be better served by going after Nelson Cruz.
I’m guessing that Cruz goes to the M’s. Only team that I can think of that will come close to his demands.
I really think that the M’s should’ve went hard after Napoli after they inked Cano. They need a big bat to protect Cano; not to mention that Napoli is a very solid hitter to begin with.
They had the opening at 1B and Napoli signed for a pretty reasonable deal.
I actually liked Hart better than Napoli, so I think the Mariners did pretty good there.
Not sure how Hart will come back after that knee surgery. I feel as if Napoli would’ve been the safer bet.; although, Hart is signed only for 1 year.
Or they could’ve signed both–Hart in RF, Napoli at 1B.
3. Cano
4. Napoli
5. Hart……… would’ve been a very solid middle-of-the-order, IMO.
I would have been really worried about Hart playing outfield full time, personally, and I also think Napoli is a pretty severe regression candidate, so I’m not sure he’s a much safer bet than Hart at this point.
Yeah, that’s true…especially with the repaired knee. However, I think he’s slated for RF anyways with Morrison at 1B now. Could’ve slid him to DH unless the M’s want to see if they have anything to salvage with Montero/Smoak.
I’m interested as to why you think that Napoli is a severe regression candidate? Are you saying if he were to move from a hitter’s park(Boston) to a pitcher’s park(Seattle) or even next year in Boston?
Even next year in Boston. He had a ridiculously high BABIP this year, which is all but certain to come down significantly, and his swing-and-miss rate, contact rate, and strike out rate have all been trending in the wrong direction for multiple years now. If not for the high BABIP, last year would have likely been the worst year of his career.
Hmm…interesting. I hadn’t looked at his BABIP. I knew that his K rate was increasing. We’ll see I guess.
As a Red Sox fan I obviously hope I’m wrong, but I’m worried about it.
You have given me hope, lol! I really wanted another team to sign Napoli. Take Ortiz’ protection away from him.
Haha well, I guess I’m glad I could help.
Not sure how Hart will come back after that knee surgery. I feel as if Napoli would’ve been the safer bet.; although, Hart is signed only for 1 year.
Or they could’ve signed both–Hart in RF, Napoli at 1B.
3. Cano
4. Napoli
5. Hart……… would’ve been a very solid middle-of-the-order, IMO.
No offense, but I couldn’t disagree more. Cruz is a DH. He would be atrocious in the Safeco outfield. And his bat has historically been awful outside of Arlington. M’s need offense, but run prevention is just as valuable. Throwing a bunch of money at a mediocre RH bat like Cruz and destroying your outfield defense in the process is not smart baseball.
No offense, but I couldn’t disagree more. Cruz is a DH. He would be atrocious in the Safeco outfield. And his bat has historically been awful outside of Arlington. M’s need offense, but run prevention is just as valuable. Throwing a bunch of money at a mediocre RH bat like Cruz and destroying your outfield defense in the process is not smart baseball.
I’ve mentioned on other articles, but I’d put them as favorites. Seattle is one of the closest cities to Japan, mariners are the most popular MLB team in Japan, Mariners have plenty of money left (if ownerships vow to raise payroll was legit), Tanaka’s former teammate plays for the M’s, and the state income tax being zero.
I’d be surprised if they don’t get them. It’s no secret the M’s are very active scouting Japanese players, so them not pulling the trigger might be an indicator of his ability.
I’ve mentioned on other articles, but I’d put them as favorites. Seattle is one of the closest cities to Japan, mariners are the most popular MLB team in Japan, Mariners have plenty of money left (if ownerships vow to raise payroll was legit), Tanaka’s former teammate plays for the M’s, and the state income tax being zero.
I’d be surprised if they don’t get them. It’s no secret the M’s are very active scouting Japanese players, so them not pulling the trigger might be an indicator of his ability.
I’ll predict a 6 year, 132 million dollar deal. That works out to 22 million a year.He may not be quite as good as Darvish, but Darvish was never a free agent, and there is more money in the game now than two years ago.
Teams are gonna pay that but not go after a proven guy like Greinke last year?
seems like a lot per year for a guy who’s never thrown a pitch in the majors. I’d throw another year on that prediction and you could be right.
It certainly is a lot. I just think it’s going to be a fight among several teams, and it’s going to push the bidding into some very crazy areas.
I would so love for one of these big spending teams to sign him to a 10 year 200 million dollar contract and he watch him do a complete flop. If this guy doesn’t win 30 wins and strikeout 400 batters his first season he won’t even live up to whatever contract or the hype behind him. My guess is Tanaka never even makes the hall of fame. Best bet he gives whatever team 3 or 4 good years.
Right because not making the hall deems a player a bust especially when he’s never thrown a major league pitch.
Great big baseball fan here folks.
…oh boy
Have to disagree. Baseball thrives when there are new and exciting players, regardless of what team they are on. I don’t root for flops.
Have to disagree. Baseball thrives when there are new and exciting players, regardless of what team they are on. I don’t root for flops.
I root for baseball not for higher salaries. higher salaries leads to vices in the game that it was never designed to handle. Not only that but I am convinced that giving a multi million dollar paycheck to an unproven talent leaves him with very little incentive or motivation. I have seen enough to know that once the big contract is signed it is time to start slacking off. So… unless they are willing to make Tanaka’s contract pure incentive based he’ll be overpaid. Hoping the Yankees get stuck with him. They are good with that.
So classy…
D’Backs would have to get rid of Cahill to even get close to affording Tanaka.
I don’t think thats true actually. The Dbacks were supposedly in on Choo and Beltran. If they are willing to spend $16+ a year on them, I would think spending it on a potentially front end SP could be a reality.
Putz, McCarthy and a couple others come off the books next year as well. If they do go over budget, it would only be for 2014. Next year the Dbacks get their new TV deal.
Don’t forget what they freed up trading Heath Bell
if the yankees offer a 7 year 120 millin dollar contract to tanaka,it will definately blow many other interested teams out of the water. whatever the yankees wantith the yankees getith.
So the Yankees didn’t wantith canoith?
Yeah, like when they wanted Darvish?
Since the Yanks need a top end young starter Tanaka is posting at a perfect time. I can see him getting up to 7/125 from them. Not bad for a unproven starter in the states.
This will be a fun month of tracking this story. I don’t recall quite this much hype around Darvish. Then again, the Yankees weren’t involved as much on Darvish. It seems a few big market (deep pockets) teams are in. The bidding should be good fun.
Well there wasn’t the “will he or won’t he” factor with Darvish.
Well there wasn’t the “will he or won’t he” factor with Darvish.
This new posting system is sure making Tanaka’s free agency a heck of a lot more exciting than Darvish’s because we knew which team Darvish was (most-likely) signing with once the highest bidder was revealed.
Also, back then it wasn’t a public bidding war like free agency. The team that won the blind posting battle could negotiate by themselves. Now you will have teams bidding against each other.
This will be a fun month of tracking this story. I don’t recall quite this much hype around Darvish. Then again, the Yankees weren’t involved as much on Darvish. It seems a few big market (deep pockets) teams are in. The bidding should be good fun.
Can’t wait to see the first shot fired. My guess is 6 years 95 million.
I think the winner will be paying $110-115 for 6 years.
i think someone will be silly enough to go 7. that’s just me though.
I could see a 7th year. I don’t think any GM is going to be crazy enough to give the guy $25-30 mil a year like I’ve seen some fans speculate though.
He is only 25 so why not 7 if you can lower the AAV,
You are very right. He’s only 25. He may want a shorter term so he can go back for another FA twirl at 30. Or some options at the end that put him in the driver’s seat. Seven years at $25 mil would not be too much for some teams. No GM wants to say that right now, though. The winning offer may include more than money. Perhaps a country house and a spacious condo near the ballpark. Flights home during the season. Other stuff.
Every team could benefit from a starter that costs them only money. As the amount rises so does the risk. Realistically, based on market size and current commitments only, it seems to me the teams that might take a swing are in New York, Texas, California, Washington state, Illinois and Ontario. Where would you want to live? Which league would prefer to play in? How good is his agent?
i think someone will be silly enough to go 7. that’s just me though.
Can’t wait to see the first shot fired. My guess is 6 years 95 million.
I think the winner will be paying $110-115 for 6 years.
A big contract is a big gamble as it is. Tanaka is an unproven player.
My prediction is that whomever signs Tanaka will be regretting it in 2017. He has Dice-K written all over him.
why?
Gut feeling honestly. I could easily be wrong, but I could also easily be right.
Gut feeling honestly. I could easily be wrong, but I could also easily be right.
The only thing Tanaka has in common with Dice-K is being Japanese.
Race has nothing to do with it. He came from the same league as DiceK. There is a reason that mediocre baseball players leave MLB and become stars in Japan. Tuffy Rhodes or Matt Murton, anyone? It’s because that league is basically AAA quality. There are a whole lot more Igawas, Irabus, and Johjimas that come from the Japanese leagues than Darvishs or Ichiros.
So? Darvish came from that league, and he hasn’t turned into Dice-K. Every American born player came from the actual AAA (or AA, or even lower) before coming to the majors; playing against lower level competition prior to playing in the highest quality league in the world is kind of the way it works. And, again, Tanaka has nothing in common with Dice-K, pitching wise.
And that’s why there are busts that come from the minors too. I’m not saying all Japanese players will be busts, or honestly even that Tanaka will be. What I originally said was that in 2017 whoever signs this unknown commodity to a $20 million a year contract will regret it.
What you originally said was “He has Dice-K written all over him.” Which is absolutely not true; outside of being Japanese players from the NPB, they have nothing in common at all.
Thank you for partially quoting me and for assuming what I meant by that comment. I appreciate that.
If Tanaka busts like I expect, then he will be like Dice-K. I don’t care about their pitching styles, it was a comment about their being expensive busts.
And the only reason to use Dice-K for that comparison is because they are both Japanese.
Yes.
And?
They ARE both Japanese. Why is it bad to point that out?
I had to use a player from a Japanese league to compare because no other countries post their players like the Japanese leagues. You are just trying to race bait and i am officially done here. Have a good night.
I’m not race baiting, I’m saying your comparison is a ridiculous one.
I had to use a player from a Japanese league to compare because no other countries post their players like the Japanese leagues. You are just trying to race bait and i am officially done here. Have a good night.
what reason do you have that will make them regret it?
Reason IS what I have. $20 million a year for a player that has never pitched in MLB before is just not a sound business decision. You are paying CY Young winner money on a guy that has never thrown a big league pitch. He is going to be considered a bust if he doesn’t win the MVP at that price. It sets him up to be a failure.
so was 112 mil for darvish too much money….since he had never pitched in the mlb
Yes it was and I said that then as well. It’s not too much for him NOW, but it was when he was unproven.
so should we not try to sign Japanese players if they do well over there? because that’s what it takes to do it
so was 112 mil for darvish too much money….since he had never pitched in the mlb
Race has nothing to do with it. He came from the same league as DiceK. There is a reason that mediocre baseball players leave MLB and become stars in Japan. Tuffy Rhodes or Matt Murton, anyone? It’s because that league is basically AAA quality. There are a whole lot more Igawas, Irabus, and Johjimas that come from the Japanese leagues than Darvishs or Ichiros.
Why is everyone saying this? also every time someone asks what makes them say that its “a gut feeling”
Because it has to be a gut feeling. There is no other way to know how Tanaka will compete against MLB talent. He has never done it before on a long term basis.
So you say it just in case he is bad then you come back on here and say see I told you guys
No I say it because that is what I think. If you agree with me fine, if you don’t that’s fine too. It’s not going to keep me up at night either way.
Because it has to be a gut feeling. There is no other way to know how Tanaka will compete against MLB talent. He has never done it before on a long term basis.
Why is everyone saying this? also every time someone asks what makes them say that its “a gut feeling”
he’s taller/bigger/stronger than DiceK. I really don’t see the comparison in style or substance.
C’mon vote me down some more for having my own opinion. I thrive on your hatred.
Elaborate on your opinion and people might actually listen. To just say someone is going to be a bust is pretty easy. Tell us why you think he doesn’t have a chance to succeed and you might have a point. Saying he has Dice-K written all over him is a pretty boring statement since they don’t have much in common besides where they are from.
Gotta agree with stl_cards16. Just saying a guy will fail sounds like sour grapes. Even gut reactions have to have a reason behind them.
Hopefully the Yankees pick Tanaka up and force everyone else to deal for Price or pay out the bum for mediocrity (lol Twins)
The Rays are not rebuilding. They are contenders. They want a major league ready starting pitcher. Why would you trade that?
You’re misunderstanding me, if the Yankees pick up Tanaka, then Price’s value in the trade market goes up considering the only pitcher with true ace potential has been signed. Giving the Rays more leverage in trade talks with teams desperate for an ace.
I already know the Rays are contenders, I’m only thinking of the situation and the relative future.
Anyone know where to find Tanakas GB-FB-LD %? I didn’t see them on his baseball reference page.
Anyone know where to find Tanakas GB-FB-LD %? I didn’t see them on his baseball reference page.
i really hope we’re amidst the third wave of baseball integration/immigration. If first wave was african american players, second wave was certainly latin america, third wave could be asia-pacific.
It’s too bad baseball isn’t bigger in China because there would be such a huge competitive base there.
i really hope we’re amidst the third wave of baseball integration/immigration. If first wave was african american players, second wave was certainly latin america, third wave could be asia-pacific.
It’s too bad baseball isn’t bigger in China because there would be such a huge competitive base there.
*sigh* You know money is completely out of hand in the sport when a guy that has proven nothing against Major League hitting is looking at a huge pay day like this…
The only reason I can think of for him to be a bust is his fastball. It is not overpowering and is straight. If he doesn’t figure that out than he either has to make his curveball better than barely passable or he will be a solid three which is good but it might not be enough to justify that contract. If he gets his fastball movement and/or his curveball he he will be a good 1/2.
Tanaka is like a prospect. Sometimes they make the adjustments to the major leagues and sometimes they don’t. 100 mil+ and + 20 posting fee is a lot of money for a prospect.
His success doesn’t seem tied to his four-seam fastball or velocity like it is with a lot of pitchers. It is the command of his secondary pitches that seems to be the key to his success which includes a splitter called, ” the best splitter in the world”, by Ben Balder at BA.
Dodgers don’t have a limit… They will sign tanaka