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Free Agent Profile: Suk-min Yoon

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Suk-min Yoon is a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher who intends to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to MLB this offseason.  Hyun-jin Ryu was the ace of KBO and had success in his first MLB season, but what can we expect from the second best pitcher out of Korea?

Strengths/Pros

After bouncing between the rotation and bullpen for most of his career, Yoon had a breakout 2011 season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 172 1/3 innings, winning the MVP award.  Yoon's 2012 was excellent as well: a 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 0.53 HR/9 in 153 frames.  Check out all of his stats at MyKBO.net.  Yoon has experience as a closer, so a relief role could be possible if necessary.

According to report two years ago from Yahoo's Jeff Passan, Yoon's fastball sat at 93 miles per hour and one scout deemed his change-up above average.  Yoon has been represented for several years by Scott Boras, who told George A. King III of the New York Post, "He’s a 91 to 92 [mph] guy. He’s a good pitcher … not an overpowering arm."  King says Boras sees Yoon as a Kyle Lohse type, though it's not clear if Boras or King drew the comparison.  One source I spoke to feels Yoon has the potential for three above average pitches.  

Yoon will pitch next year at age 27, meaning he's the youngest free agent starter available and one of few in his 20s.

As an international free agent, Yoon will not require a draft pick to sign.  Additionally, unlike Ryu, Yoon is a free agent and will not require a posting fee.

Weaknesses/Cons

Yoon dealt with a shoulder injury in 2013, about which not much is known publicly.  Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency tells me the injury "seemed serious."  Yoon made 11 starts with a 4.16 ERA, as well as 19 relief appearances with a 3.60 mark.  Yoon's coaches asked him to close for the Kia Tigers in their time of need in August, prompting his move to the bullpen.  At any rate, Yoon's 172 1/3 innings in 2011 was a career-high, so 30 big league starts would be a new level for him.  The increased travel may have worn on Ryu this year and could affect Yoon as well.  After an off year, it may have made sense to rebuild value in Korea, but Yoon wants to come over now.

Yoon has certainly been accessible to scouts over the years in Korea, and he has pitched in the 2008 Summer Olympics and the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics.  However, we haven't seen much in the way of scouting reports in the public arena yet, and it's unclear if he even rates as an MLB starter.  One MLB executive I spoke to sees Yoon as a reliever.

Personal

Yoon is a single guy, and Yoo tells me the pitcher enjoys driving and fishing (and perhaps driving to go fishing).  Yoo says Yoon is "not a rah-rah guy in the clubhouse," but in Korean sports culture age and seniority matter a great deal in determining the clubhouse leader.  There was one maturity issue in 2010, when Yoon broke his right pinkie after punching his locker.  

Market

Yoon rumors have been light in the early going.  In mid-October, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 said the Twins would scout Yoon's showcase, but Boras later told King no showcase was happening.  And while Boras intends to engage Yankees GM Brian Cashman about Yoon, there's no indication whether the team is interested.  Along with the Twins, the Cubs, Rays, Royals, and Orioles are among the teams with Korean scouts, so they may have extra information on Yoon.

Expected Contract

Of my contract predictions so far, I have the least confidence in this one, due to the lack of public information on Yoon.  He's a bit of a wild card, but I'm going with a two-year, $10MM deal.

Thanks to Dan Kurtz of myKBO.net and Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency for insight.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Cardinals, Tigers

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The Red Sox and Cardinals can continue to count on help from their farm system, Baseball America's Matt Eddy writes. Eddy has organized Baseball America's recent lists of the top 20 prospects in each minor league into rankings that approximate the amount of impact talent in each team's system, as well as how close that talent is the the Majors. The Red Sox rank first, thanks largely to Xander Bogaerts. The Cardinals, led by Oscar Taveras and Michael Wacha, rank eighth. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • GM John Mozeliak believes the Cardinals' success could lead other teams to pursue their coaches, scouts and front office personnel, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. "This success is likely going to propel some people because there is no doubt you’re going to see (clubs) trying to look at ways to emulate what’s happening here," says Mozeliak. "So, frankly, you’ve got to have quality succession plans in line, and prepare. I think it’s a great compliment." Coaches Jose Oquendo and Mike Aldrete might wind up being managerial candidates for other teams, for example.
  • The Tigers will interview Padres special assistant Brad Ausmus and bench coach Rich Renteria for their manager job, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Tigers had already interviewed internal candidate Lloyd McClendon, along with Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Contract Options

  • Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
  • Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout

Free Agents

The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the their 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers — primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister — were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.

The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.

The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.

Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.

Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.

In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.

The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.

On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.

Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.

Week In Review: 10/20/13 – 10/26/13

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Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR:

Central Notes: Tulo, Cubs/Tigers Managerial Openings

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The World Series continues tonight in St. Louis with the Cardinals holding a 2-1 lead over the Red Sox after Game 3's controversial ending. Even though their season is still in progress, many are already anticipating the Cardinals' offseason needs and shortstop sits atop that list. Earlier today, Troy Tulowitzki's name was mentioned as a possible target. Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes Tulo would fit perfectly in St. Louis with the Rockies' haul starting with first baseman Matt Adams and some mix of outfielder Stephen Piscotty, second baseman Kolten Wong and reliever Carlos Martinez. Renck, however, doesn't expect such a mega-deal because Rockies owner Dick Monfort has stated Tulowitzki will not be traded. Elsewhere from MLB's Central Divisions:

  • The Cubs will interview Torey Lovullo shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, reports the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer. The Cubs have yet to request permission to speak with the Red Sox's bench coach, sources from both organizations tell Wittenmyer.  
  • Within the same article, multiple industry sources say Padres bench coach Rick Renteria appears to be the favorite to land the Cubs' job.
  • The Tigers face the same challenge the Cardinals did two years ago when Tony LaRussa retired, opines John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press. If Dave Dombrowski follows the blueprint of John Mozeliak, Lowe reasons Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon will likely replace Jim Leyland as manager.
  • Earlier today, I posted some Indians notes on Chris Perez, Jake Westbrook, and Corey Hart.

Indians Notes: Perez, Westbrook, Hart

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Yesterday, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported the Indians were never close to giving Jose Dariel Abreu the kind of money he received from their intra-divisional rival, the White Sox. In other Tribe tidbits from Hoynes:

  • Re-signing Matt Capps to a minor league deal is not an indication the Indians are going to part ways with closer Chris Perez. If tendered a contract by the Indians, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for the arbitration-eligible Perez. If Perez is traded or non-tendered, Hoynes names Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw as the best in-house replacements.
  • Right-hander Jake Westbrook is definitely someone the Indians will keep an eye on this off-season, if healthy. The Cardinals are expected to decline their half of Westbrook's $9.5MM mutual option in favor of a $1MM buyout. The 36-year-old spent nine years in Cleveland before being acquired by the Cardinals at the 2010 Trade Deadline.
  • Corey Hart is a tough fit for the Indians because his knee surgeries make it unlikely he can man the outfield and they already have Nick Swisher at first and Carlos Santana at DH. While the Indians have gambled on buy-low contracts for pitchers coming off an injury, Hoynes cannot recall such a deal for a position player. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts the open market will bear a one-year, $8MM contract for Hart with an additional $2-4MM in incentives.

AL East Links: Rays, Loney, Rodney, Reimold

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November will bring the eight-year anniversaries of the Rays' hirings of executive vice president Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times. With Jim Leyland's retirement, Friedman and Maddon are now the longest-tenured GM/manager duo in Major League Baseball. Topkin quotes Friedman: "Joe and I have a tremendous working relationship that has only strengthened over time. I think that the continuity throughout our organization provides at least a little of a competitive advantage." Here's more on the Rays and the rest of the AL East…

  • Within that same article, Topkin reports that there aren't likely to be any pre-emptive deals with impending free agents for the Rays. He lists James Loney and Fernando Rodney as two such free agents who would like to explore the free agent market. That goes against what teammate Joel Peralta said about Rodney a few weeks back; Peralta voiced his certainty that Rodney would take a discount to return to the Rays.
  • Nolan Reimold hopes to return to the Orioles in 2014, though he realizes that he's not a lock to be tendered a contract, the 30-year-old tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Reimold missed the majority of the season once again but says he's significantly further along in his rehab from neck surgery than he was in his injury rehab at this time last season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.2MM salary for Reimold if the O's do indeed tender him.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wonders how much of an impact Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM extension will have on the pitching market, specifically impending Orioles free agent Scott Feldman.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers' climbed from the bottom of the NL West all the way to the top thanks to a 42-8 midseason tear.  After reaching the NLCS, L.A. hopes to take the next step in 2014.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Jerry Hairston, J.P. Howell, Carlos Marmol, Ricky Nolasco, Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker, Juan Uribe, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Michael Young

The Dodgers got their offseason started in a big way last Tuesday when they signed Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero to a four-year, $28MM contract that could reach $32MM via incentives.  The Dodgers were supposed to be the Yankees' biggest foe in their bid to re-sign Robinson Cano, but the deal seemingly takes them out of the running.  It's worth noting, however, that landing Cano is just improbable at this stage, not impossible.  In theory, the Dodgers could move Hanley Ramirez – who could see a new deal with the club this winter – to third base and play Guerrero at shortstop, but Guerrero's defensive skillset is better suited for the other side of the bag.  However, it has been rumored for the last few months that L.A. wasn't going to make a serious play for Cano and Magic Johnson pretty much confirmed that line of thinking earlier this month.  Besides, the Dodgers figure to have some pretty serious expenses ahead of them.

The Dodgers hope to lock up Clayton Kershaw for the foreseeable future and at some point during the season they went to their star left-hander with a $300MM offer.  The 25-year-old backed out of the talks because he apparently had reservations about the length of the deal (it was said to be a "lifetime" contract) and didn't want to have an unnecessary distraction during the year.  Regardless, the two sides will meet at the negotiating table this winter and whether or not the deal breaks the $300MM barrier, it is all but guaranteed to be the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, topping CC Sabathia's $161MM pact signed in 2008.

More immediately, the Dodgers have to figure out what to do about their managerial situation.  Don Mattingly's contract option for 2014 has vested, but the Dodgers seem to be waffling on whether they want him back and the skipper says he'll honor the deal, but he wants a multi-year pact to avoid lame duck status.  The coaching staff is now more or less set, meaning that the Dodgers are probably either looking to retain the former Yankees great or go with someone in-house.  Third-base coach Tim Wallach is said to be a strong candidate if there is a change in the dugout.

Los Angeles has a number of free agents this season and they'll probably have at least a few holes to fill.  Both second baseman Mark Ellis ($5.75MM option, $1MM buyout) and third baseman Juan Uribe can hit the open market and while Guerrero's arrival can help fill one position or the other, he can't do both.  Odds are, Guerrero will be slotted in at second base, displacing Ellis from the starting lineup, but the Dodgers could welcome the 36-year-old back as a reserve.  Uribe turned over a new leaf in 2013 (.278/.331/.438 with 12 homers) and gave the Dodgers a solid everyday play in the hot corner.  Given the lack viable third base options available on the open market, it would be wise to re-sign the veteran.  The trade market for third baseman is headlined by Chase Headley, but the Dodgers will be hard-pressed to pry him away from one of their divisional rivals.  Thinking outside of the box, they could call up the Brewers and see if they can work out a deal for Aramis Ramirez in which Milwaukee eats a good portion of his $20MM salary.  If they want to play musical chairs with their infield by putting Ramirez at third, they can go out and get a shortstop instead.  Stephen Drew will be a free agent and Jhonny Peralta is available and unlikely to return in Detroit.

The Dodgers will also have some housekeeping to do when it comes to their infield depth.  Michael Young, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker are all eligible for free agency.  Young could conceivably be their third base answer if Uribe isn't retained, but they'd probably prefer someone who can do more defensively.  Punto would offer that defensive acumen, but he's lacking at the plate.

The Dodgers' rotation is quite strong at the top with Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but there are some question marks beyond that.  Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett could fill the No. 4 and 5 spots, but they'll both be recovering from surgeries.  Re-signing free agent Ricky Nolasco would be a great way to shore up the back end of the starting five and the Dodgers would almost certainly welcome him back if they knew they could have the pitcher they saw from July through early September.  The wheels came off a little bit in his final few starts of the year, but those rough outings only bumped his ERA to 3.52 with 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 15 starts and one relief appearance for L.A.  In September, when Nolasco had a 2.07 ERA in 74 innings for the Dodgers, Tim Dierkes estimated that he could see a three-year, $36MM contract.  Talking to Dierkes now, he's considering upgrading that to a four-year, $52MM deal.  If the Guggenheim group is still willing to spend big, they can replace Nolasco with the likes of Ervin Santana or Japanese standout Masahiro Tanaka, whom they're said to be high on.  Both players will cost them a pretty penny, but they'll have some breathing room with Ted Lilly and Chris Capuano coming off the books.  Who knows, they could even be players for Rays ace David Price if they want to make an enormous splash.

A.J. Ellis seems likely to be back behind the plate as the Dodgers' starting catcher, but it's not a sure thing after he had some hiccups in the postseason.  There are talented backstops to be had on the open market like Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia and both guys can bring a level of offensive firepower that Ellis does not.  Of course, they'll both require quite a bit of coin at a time where catching around baseball is rather thin.  Tim believes McCann is in line for a five-year, $80MM deal while Saltalamacchia should see something in the range of $36MM over four years.  If the Dodgers want to be a little more fiscally responsible (hey, why are you laughing?) they'll find less expensive veteran options like A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz.

Much of the Dodgers bullpen will return in 2014, but two key members – Brian Wilson and J.P. Howell – might not.  Wilson could very well take his talents and his beard elsewhere after pitching extremely well (0.66 ERA with 13 strikeouts and four walks over 13.2 innings) in his brief time with the Dodgers.  Howell was also sharp (2.03 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 67 appearances and figures to be one of the most sought-after left-handers this winter.  If one or both go, they can look into setup men like Jesse Crain and LaTroy Hawkins.  

That pretty much covers the Dodgers' holes, but they have quite an enviable talent surplus in the outfield with Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford.  The Dodgers could plug their other holes by moving one of the four.  It goes without saying that Puig is staying put.  Crawford is probably staying put too, seeing as how he's owed a small fortune between now and 2017.  One would probably think that Ethier is more likely to be moved than Kemp, but from the outside it looks like either one could be moved depending on how the market plays out.  Ethier has been maddeningly inconsistent but Kemp should bring in a greater return, injury concerns and all.  There is an option C, of course: keeping all four.  The Dodgers know that they can't bank on the health of Crawford or Kemp, so having four high-level outfielders would be a wonderful luxury to have.

After piecing together a payroll big enough to make a Jerry Bruckheimer film blush, the Dodgers are eager to put it all together in 2014.  With some patching up, they can carry their second half surge into a strong wire-to-wire effort next season.

Sherman On Cardinals, Posting System, Headley

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While there is a common thinking that a team can never have "too much pitching," Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Cardinals may actually be able to boast that luxury. The team's incredible wealth of young, cost-controlled arms sets them up to be as aggressive as they'd like in addressing holes this offseason, opines Sherman, including shortstop and center field. The Cardinals likely have the young pieces to deal to acquire a marquee player like Troy Tulowitzki or a lesser, but strong option like J.J. Hardy. Their stock of young talent would even make the loss of a draft pick more palatable should they decide to be bold in free agency, as they were when they signed Matt Holliday to his seven-year deal. More from Sherman…

  • In a second piece, Sherman reports that Major League Baseball and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball are nearing an agreement on alterations to the posting system for Japanese players. Two sources told Sherman that MLB and NPB are hoping to have an agreement in place by Nov. 1 (this coming Friday). He adds that one scenario he's heard would allow the posted player to select one of the three highest bidders and negotiate solely with that club — a scenario suggested as a possibility last month by Newsday.
  • From that same article, Sherman reports that the Padres recently completed their organizational meetings and feel that they will retain Chase Headley rather than trade him prior to his walk year. While they will still listen to offer on their switch-hitting third baseman, a trade doesn't seem likely.
  • Padres officials that spoke with Sherman said the team doesn't feel the Yankees are a potential fit as a trade partner for Headley. San Diego wants to win now and would only deal Headley if the return included cost-effective players that are ready for the Majors or close to it. As Sherman points out, the Yankees' farm system doesn't include many players that fit that bill.

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