Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Twins are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Trevor Plouffe (2.162, Super Two): $2.1MM
- Brian Duensing (4.104): $1.9MM
- Anthony Swarzak (3.038): $800K
Plouffe received 57 more plate appearances in 2013 than 2012, but hit 10 fewer home runs. He may be better served as a platoon option at third base moving forward, but he's still worth retaining at this price.
Duensing had his first season of full-time relief pitching and was serviceable with a 3.98 ERA in 61 innings. He was dominant against lefties, and could have more success in a LOOGY role. Swarzak led all of MLB with 96 relief innings, posting a strong 2.91 ERA. Both pitchers should be part of the Twins' bullpen in 2014.
Assuming the Twins tender contracts to Plouffe, Duensing, and Swarzak, they're looking at an estimated $4.8MM for three arbitration eligible players.
