Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Mariners are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Justin Smoak (3.113): $2.8MM
- Michael Saunders (3.138): $2MM
Smoak's .238/.334/.412 line was about average for a first baseman, which was a big step forward after he'd hit .223/.306/.377 in over 1,400 prior plate appearances. He struggled mightily against lefties and hasn't shown enough to justify a multiyear extension, but the 26-year-old clearly has a spot on next year's club. Saunders, also 26 with poor production against southpaws, took a slight step back in 2013. Even if he's just a fourth outfielder, his first-time arbitration salary is justified.
Charlie Furbush, previously estimated as a Super Two player, appears to fall one day short of the necessary amount of service time.
Assuming Smoak and Saunders are tendered contracts, the Mariners are looking at an estimated $4.8MM for two arbitration eligible players.
