Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Giants are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Brandon Belt (2.128, Super Two): $2.4MM
- Gregor Blanco (3.164): $2.2MM
- Jose Mijares (5.024): $2.1MM
- Yusmeiro Petit (3.016): $1.3MM
- Joaquin Arias (4.071): $1.2MM
- Tony Abreu (3.170): $700K
Belt, 26 in April, established career bests in most categories and finished strong. He'll go to arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but his first-time salary is held down by modest power numbers. It's possible the Giants could consider an Allen Craig type of contract, perhaps with an adjustment to reflect Belt's Super Two status. Blanco had another useful season, contributing mainly with his glove. It's possible he'll be pushed to a fourth outfielder role next year, but he still provides good value. Arias seems safe as the primary backup infielder.
As a journeyman who cleared waivers as recently as August, I'd normally peg Petit as a non-tender candidate. However, he did a nice job for the Giants in 48 innings, narrowly missing a perfect game in September. He's probably earned himself a roster spot for next year, especially with the Giants facing question marks in the rotation after Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.
The Giants may lose lefty Javier Lopez to free agency, but still may see fit to non-tender Mijares. The 28-year-old southpaw posted a strong 9.9 K/9, but was beat up by allowing 67 hits in 49 innings. He might rebound next year if he's used more strictly, as he was particularly bad against right-handed hitters. Abreu showed good pop in 147 plate appearances, enduring a couple of stints on the DL. Since his projected salary is barely above the league minimum, he has a chance to stick around.
If Belt, Blanco, Petit, Arias, and Abreu are tendered contracts, the Giants are looking at an estimated $7.8MM for five arbitration eligible players.
It’s been pretty disgusting the way Giants “fans” and management has treated Belt. If you look at almost any metric there is, he is a top 20-25 hitter in all of MLB, and even more valuable @1B, he plays the position well. 2.05 is just insulting. I understand the business of baseball and his future salaries are based on this years if they stay the arb route, which they should lock him up for a couple of his FA years too, at some cost certainty and also showing him the respect he hasn’t been shown to this point. He should be offered something looking a little like 6/55ish about 2.75, 5, 8, 11, 13.25, 15, maybe slap an option on there of 18 w/a couple Millions buyout, that’d take him through age 32, and getting 2 maybe 3 FA years, for a little over 70MM, that’s a pretty good value if you ask me for a guy who I think has a 3 Win floor in a full season and could creep towards 6 or 7 wins in the next few years as he ages, and gets a little more man muscle. As Teddy KGB would say “Pay that man his money”!