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2013-14 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles spent much of the winter quietly adding depth in the form of minor league contracts, then struck late to score some notable Major League free agents.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Baltimore fans spent much of the winter getting impatient with Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette.  Several notable players left for free agency, former All-Star closer Jim Johnson had been traded to get his ballooning salary off the books and the team had not one, but two signings fall through due to last-minute issues with the players' physicals.

After a busy February, however, it seems like Duquette was simply biding his time.  The Orioles signed one of the few notable starting pitchers left on the market when Ubaldo Jimenez agreed to a four-year, $50MM deal — the most significant commitment made by the O's to a pitcher in recent memory.  Duquette had been vocal about not wanting to overspend for a free agent arm and was hesitant to surrender the team's first-round draft pick in order to sign free agents who had rejected qualifying offers, yet had kept in touch with Jimenez's representatives for much of the winter and finally locked the right-hander up by agreeing to a fourth year.

USATSI_7799284

It took Jimenez the better part of three seasons to regain his mechanics, but after a rough start he was dominant in 2013, posting a 2.40 ERA over his final 22 starts with Cleveland.  It remains to be seen if Jimenez can remain consistent, but at worst, the O's added a durable veteran arm who has averaged 198 IP per year over the last six seasons.  Jimenez joins Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez on the staff, and Bud Norris retained his spot with a solid Spring Training, bumping several promising young hurlers to the bullpen (Brian Matusz and Zach Britton) or the minors (Kevin Gausman).

If that wasn't enough pitching depth, the Orioles also have a pair of intriguing arms that could be available later in the season.  Suk-min Yoon's three-year, $5.575MM deal is Duquette's latest venture into the international market, and while Yoon was a stand-out starter in the KBO and will be stretched out as a starter in the minors, there is some belief that he would translate best to North American baseball as a reliever.  Minor league signing Johan Santana could also find himself in the pen if he can't handle a starter's workload following shoulder surgery that cost him the entire 2013 season.  So little guaranteed money is tied up in Yoon and Santana, however, that both pitchers are essentially lottery tickets for the Orioles that could pay off extremely well if either returns to form.

Before landing Jimenez, the Orioles were linked to other veterans like Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett and Ervin Santana, and even after Jimenez's signing were still in on Santana given how the righty's price fell to just a one-year deal.  Earlier, Baltimore had explored bringing back Scott Feldman, and were willing to offer him a two-year contract, but Feldman found a longer deal with the Astros.

Fresh off the Jimenez signing, the Orioles then landed another qualifying offer free agent by inking Nelson Cruz signed a one-year, $8MM deal.  Signing Jimenez and Cruz cost the Orioles their first- and second-round draft picks, meaning that over 90 players will be off the board before the O's finally pick in June's amateur draft.  Some of the club's young international signings help make up the difference, though giving up those picks mean the Orioles are making a bold step towards winning in 2014.

With Johnson gone, Baltimore added some new faces to the relief corps.  Free agent right-hander Ryan Webb owns a 3.29 ERA over 276 career innings and his 57.4% career ground ball rate should play well at Camden Yards.  The O's took the opposite tack by acquiring live arm Brad Brach, who has had some control issues (a career 5.1 BB/9) but can definitely miss bats, as evidenced by his 117 strikeouts in 104 2/3 career innings.  Veterans Alfredo Aceves, Evan Meek and Luis Ayala were signed to minor league deals to provide further depth.

Once Nate McLouth signed with the Nationals, the Orioles filled their need for a left-handed hitting outfielder by dealing Danny Valencia to the Royals in exchange for David Lough.  While the 28-year-old Lough only has a career .700 OPS in 323 PA against righty pitching, he brings an outstanding glove (+27.3 UZR/150) to all three outfield positions.  Lough will receive regular playing time against right-handers as part of a left field platoon.

Questions Remaining

Johnson's salary was projected to rise past the $10MM mark in the closer's final year of arbitration eligibility and his price simply got too high for the Orioles to manage, so Johnson was dealt to Oakland.  Baltimore seemed to have Grant Balfour all but signed as the club's next stopper, yet after Balfour's physical, the O's found some issues with Balfour's wrist and knee that caused them to back away from the agreement.  Balfour went on to sign a two-year contract with the Rays (whose team doctors judged him to be in good fitness) and the incident opened the Orioles up to criticism that they were being too picky.

Though the O's explored signing Fernando Rodney and even discussed acquiring Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies, they ended up forgoing the proven-closer route and now seem set to use Tommy Hunter in the role.  Hunter became a full-time reliever in 2013 and quickly took to the role, posting a 2.81 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 4.86 K/BB over 86 1/3 innings.  As Rotographs' Mike Podhorzer explains, Hunter projects as a solid closer for the coming season, though the Orioles' interest in Rodney indicates that they're not totally set on having a novice stopper.  If Hunter falters, Webb or Darren O'Day could be promoted to closer, and the Orioles would likely become a prime trade partner for non-contenders looking to deal their closer at midseason.

Manny Machado will begin the season on the DL, as the star third baseman is still recovering from left knee surgery in October.  While Machado has made good progress and was recently cleared for physical activity, he won't see any Major League action until later in April.  Ryan Flaherty will fill in at third for now, with waiver claims Cord Phelps and David Adams (or even Rule 5 draft pick Michael Almanzar if the O's can find roster space for him) also available at the hot corner for what Baltimore hopes will be only a few weeks until Machado is healthy.

Flaherty will also be part of the very unsettled mix at second base.  The Orioles bought low on Jemile Weeks, who has struggled since his excellent 2011 rookie campaign and also hasn't shown much at the plate during Spring Training.  With Weeks not producing and the re-signed Alexi Casilla hobbled by injuries, the newly-acquired Steve Lombardozzi may now be the favorite at second base (in addition to adding depth at third and left field).  Duquette only needed to surrender a veteran on a minor league deal in Alex Gonzalez to pick up Lombardozzi, a 25-year-old switch-hitter under team control through 2017.

Top prospect Jonathan Schoop, however, is the big x-factor.  The conventional wisdom was that Baltimore would keep Schoop in the minors for more seasoning (he posted only a .697 OPS in 289 Triple-A plate appearances) this year and then look to him in 2015, yet Schoop has enjoyed a tremendous Spring Training.  Schoop was already called up for a five-game cup of coffee last September, and given the uninspiring other options at the keystone position, the Orioles could keep Schoop's service clock rolling, at least until Machado returns.

As you can tell, there are a lot of moving parts with Baltimore's bench situation.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently predicted that "a trade or two" could be in the offing in his look at the Orioles' many out-of-options players since between the out-of-options guys and the minor league signings, the O's simply have too many players for too few roster spots right now.  One small move was already made to bring in Adams, as Kelvin De La Cruz was outrighed to Triple-A four months after he was surprisingly signed to a Major League contract.

While the Orioles made a flurry of moves involving smaller names on their roster this offseason, there wasn't much to report on some of their bigger names, as extension talks with such notables as Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy haven't delivered much progress.  The Davis and Wieters cases perhaps aren't surprising given that Scott Boras clients usually get to the open market.  Since Davis and Wieters aren't free agents until after the 2015 season, the O's might want more information before committing to either player, for differing reasons — Davis to see if he's truly an elite slugger following his breakout 53-homer season in 2013, and Wieters to see if he can rebound following a disappointing .235/.287/.417 year.

Hardy is a more pressing case since he's only under contract through 2014.  Machado's future looms over any decision the Orioles make with Hardy; though Machado was phenomenal at third base last year, it has been assumed that the O's will eventually move him back to his natural position of shortstop.  The Orioles' lack of dialogue with Hardy about a position switch has openly frustrated him, as needless to say, he'd prefer to have his future position settled before signing an extension.  Hardy turns 32 in August and Machado only 22 in July, so the easy solution for the Orioles could be to extend Hardy for two or three seasons and just leave Machado at third until Hardy's next deal is up.

Deal Of Note

As the cliche goes, there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal.  Cruz brings a lot of baggage with him to Baltimore — a 50-game PED suspension in 2013, his age (he turns 34 in July), declining speed, lots of strikeouts, a below-average outfield glove and career home/away splits (.911 OPS at Globe Life Park, .734 OPS on the road) that raised questions about whether he can produce outside of Arlington.  Still, it was this same baggage that allowed the O's to sign the veteran slugger at such a reduced price.

The more important facts for the Orioles might've been Cruz's .266/.327/.506 slash line and 27 homers in 456 PAs last season, numbers that easily surpass the .234/.289/.415 line and 21 homers over 602 PA posted by Baltimore designated hitters in 2013.  Seventeen different players appeared at DH for the O's last year and that revolving door has now been firmly slammed shut with Cruz's arrival.  Spending most of his time at DH will solve the issue of Cruz's glove, and he should still be able to produce at a hitter-friendly park like Camden Yards.

After turning down a $14.1MM qualifying offer from the Rangers and initially seeking a four-year, $75MM deal, the one-year agreement is certainly not what Cruz and his representatives were expecting from the offseason.  Much has been made about how Cruz and other free agents over the last two winters have seen their markets drastically limited with the price of a first-round draft pick compensation hanging over their heads, and Cruz is the first of these free agents to end up with a deal worth less than $14.1MM.  It's easy to say in hindsight that Cruz should've accepted the Rangers' offer and tried to rebuild his value in familiar surroundings in Arlington, yet it was hard to predict that his market would so completely dry up.  Cruz will no doubt have extra motivation to deliver a big season in 2014, which is just fine for the Orioles.

Overview

If things don't work out for the O's this season, Duquette has given himself a lot of flexibility to reload.  While a whopping 15 current Orioles are arbitration-eligible next winter, only five players (Adam Jones, Dylan Bundy, Jimenez, Yoon, and Webb) are on guaranteed contracts past this season.  By then the young stars will only be a year older and perhaps ready to contribute, so even if Baltimore is again limited to 85 wins by their tough division, there's still plenty of hope for another run in 2015.

But then again, why wait until 2015?  With player salaries topping the $100MM mark, the Orioles are spending a bit more freely in order to hang with the other big AL East payrolls.  Giving up the two draft picks for Jimenez and Cruz marks a shift in Duquette's strategy, as this is no longer a team that seems unsure about whether it's rebuilding or not — while Gausman, Schoop, Bundy and company are still on the horizon, the Orioles clearly feel that they enough talent to contend right now.  We could still be a year or two away from the "next great Orioles team," or that next great team could have already arrived.

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers won the offseason with high-profile acquisitions of Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder, and they figure to compete again in 2014, but they've taken on two contracts that could be onerous in a few years, and now they're dealing with injury issues.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings 
Extensions
  • SP Martin Perez: Four years, $12.5MM, with three club options
Trades and Claims
Notable Losses 

Needs Addressed
 
The Rangers entered the offseason needing to improve at first base and relieve their middle-infield logjam, and they solved both problems with one fell swoop by trading Ian Kinsler to the Tigers for Prince Fielder and cash. Fielder will, clearly, be an upgrade over the Rangers' 2013 first basemen, mostly Mitch Moreland and Jeff Baker. Moreland will become the Rangers' primary DH, where he should be no worse than Lance Berkman was in his last season before retirement.

Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar, who was to become the Rangers' new second baseman, would have provided at least the chance that the team wouldn't miss Kinsler too much. Profar struggled in his first extended shot in the big leagues in 2013, but as a former elite prospect who only recently turned 21, he should have been able to take a step forward in 2014. The 31-year-old Kinsler, meanwhile, had declined both offensively and defensively since his outstanding 2011 season. Unfortunately, the Rangers announced on Sunday that Profar would be out ten to 12 weeks with a muscle tear.

Long-term, the Fielder-for-Kinsler swap is a complex proposition. Even with the $30MM the Rangers received from the Tigers in the deal, and even with Kinsler's own large contract heading the other way, the Rangers added $76MM in salary in the trade, and they'll effectively be paying Fielder $138MM ($168MM minus $30MM) through 2020. The Rangers will need to hope that Fielder's relatively pedestrian .279/.362/.457 2013 season wasn't the start of a trend. Given his deficiencies on defense and on the basepaths, that line made him worth just 2.2 WAR in 2013. And seven years is an awfully long commitment for a slugger who's about to turn 30, particularly given Fielder's physique.

The Rangers did, of course, rid themselves of Kinsler's contract, but there's reason to think that Kinsler, a more athletic player who maintains some defensive value, might decline more slowly than Fielder will.  Age can be unkind to big sluggers. The Rangers' Fielder acquisition suited their needs brilliantly in the short term. In the long term, his contract could become a big problem.

The Rangers also made what was nearly a challenge trade with their division rivals in Oakland, sending whiz defensive outfielder Craig Gentry and depth pitching option Josh Lindblom in return for outfield prospect Michael Choice and young middle infielder Chris Bostick. Lindblom lacks upside and Bostick is little more than a lottery ticket, given his strikeout issues in Class A. So the deal mostly boils down to Gentry for Choice. Gentry is clearly a valuable player, but the Rangers wanted Leonys Martin to play every day in center, and Choice, who's coming off a strong season in Triple-A Sacramento, should give the Rangers a good, cheap option in a corner or DH whenever they have space for him.

The Rangers needed to find not one but two catchers, with both A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto eligible for free agency after 2013. Rather than splurging on top free agent option Brian McCann, the Rangers brought Soto back, this time as a starter, and signed J.P. Arencibia to be his backup. Given that the Rangers proved perfectly willing to spend money elsewhere, these were savvy moves, even though there's downside risk, particularly in Arencibia's case. Soto vanished into backup-catcherdom thanks to a bad 2012 season, even though he was still fairly young and had a long track record of providing value. After a .245/.328/.466 season as Pierzynski's caddy in 2013, the Rangers are paying barely over $3MM to have Soto start. He's still a credible starting catcher, and his cost is negligible by the standards of MLB free-agent contracts.

Their signing of Arencibia was also a clever move. Arencibia is coming off a disastrous offensive season in Toronto, and his inability to hit for average is a problem even in the best of circumstances. He is developing a great reputation as a pitch-framer, however, and he has outstanding power for a catcher. It's not hard to imagine a season in which he bats .210 but remains very valuable by helping Rangers pitchers and belting 15 home runs in a very power-friendly ballpark.

The Rangers also added an interesting relief arm in Miles Mikolas, giving up only Chris McGuiness, a left-handed first baseman who would be stretched as a starter and who served little purpose with both Fielder and Moreland available. Mikolas doesn't have any immediate role on the 2014 Rangers, but he throws hard and gets ground balls, and he held his own in a half-season with the Padres in 2012.

On the extension front, the Rangers signed young starter Martin Perez to a four-year, $12.5MM deal that buys out two pre-arbitration seasons and two arbitration seasons, while giving the Rangers reasonable options on Perez's last arbitration season and two free-agency years ($6MM or a $2.45MM buyout in 2018, $7.5MM or a $750K buyout in 2019, and $9MM with a $250K buyout in 2020). The deal is extremely favorable to the Rangers, since $12.5MM is such a meager sum and since the contract gives the Rangers so much flexibility with Perez's age-27 through age-29 seasons. Perez is already off to a good start in his big-league career, and if he can improve at all beyond his performance in 2013, his contract will turn into a bargain very quickly.

Finally, the Rangers added Tommy Hanson and Joe Saunders on cheap contracts, hoping to replenish their starting pitching in the wake of a significant injury to Derek Holland. Tanner Scheppers will now join Yu Darvish and Perez in the Rangers' rotation, with Saunders, Hanson, Robbie Ross and Colby Lewis competing for the final two spots, while Alexi Ogando moves to the bullpen to set up Joakim Soria.

Questions Remaining

The rotation with which the Rangers are about to enter 2014 probably isn't what they would have imagined for themselves in October, but they'll have to make do. Hanson struggled with the Angels in 2013 as the velocity and effectiveness of his fastball continued to decline. Saunders was somewhat better in 2013 than his 5.26 ERA with the Mariners suggested, and he might turn out to be a modest bargain for the Rangers, particularly given the minimal amount of risk they assumed. But he's still an average starting pitcher at best. Holland and Matt Harrison (who is also working his way back from injury) can't return quickly enough.

2013 closer Joe Nathan headed to the Tigers after declining his 2014 option. The Rangers should still have a decent bullpen, however. Soria will take Nathan's place after a strong spring; he was once one of baseball's best closers, and he'll only be 30 in May, so it's not unreasonable to hope he might be able to return to his prior heights. With Ogando, Neal Cotts and Jason Frasor, Soria will be reasonably well supported. Neftali Feliz and Michael Kirkman, along with a number of the Rangers' lower-profile offseason acquisitions (Shawn Tolleson, Rafael Perez, Pedro Figueroa, Ryan Feierabend, and others) will compete for the last few jobs in the bullpen.

With Profar now out, the Rangers have a hole at second base. Top prospect Rougned Odor might be a possibility, but he has little experience in the high minors. If not Odor, the Rangers could turn to Adam Rosales, Kensuke Tanaka or Josh Wilson. None of those solutions are ideal. That leaves the Rangers with potential question marks not only at DH, but at second base as well — not that Profar would have been a sure thing, of course. Catcher could also be an issue, with Soto recently having a precautionary MRI on his knee. (The injury bug has bitten the Rangers badly.) Also, with lefties Choo and Fielder anchoring the lineup, the Rangers are thin against left-handed pitching, particularly if Choice doesn't make the 25-man roster.

Deal of Note

USATSI_7814654Shin-Soo Choo's massive deal falls into the same category as the Fielder trade — it fits the Rangers' needs to a tee right now, but could become a problem in a relatively short time. The Rangers needed a right fielder given the imminent departure of Nelson Cruz, and it's hard to argue with Choo's spectacular .423 on-base percentage last season. It also makes sense for him to be back in right field, since he was a defensive liability in center for the Reds last season.

In the long term, though, seven years and $130MM is a huge commitment for a 31-year-old corner outfielder who doesn't have elite power and who already arguably should be platooned — Choo hit just .215/.347/.265 against lefties in 2013, with the walk as his only real weapon against them. Given that Choo isn't an outstanding defensive player either, it's easy to imagine that he'll be a tweener type three or four years from now, putting up strong OBPs against righties, but platooning and frustrating the Rangers with his defense as he starts to lose speed. Projection systems are much more optimistic about Choo than they are about Fielder. But Choo comes with warning signs, and seven years is a long time.

Conclusion
 
Even with talented youngsters in Profar and Perez (plus a number of very interesting low-minors prospects) in tow, the Rangers were a win-now team even before the offseason began, and the Fielder and Choo moves ought to be viewed with that in mind. There's a reasonable chance that both moves will look ridiculous in four years or so, but if the Rangers can bring home a World Series trophy sometime before 2017, they'll happily live with that.
 
Losing Holland and Profar for at least the first couple months of the season hurts, though, particularly because the rest of the AL West is more competitive than it once was. The Mariners obviously are much better after the addition of Robinson Cano. The Athletics will likely continue to be competitive, although, like the Rangers, they're struggling to keep their starting pitchers healthy. The Angels still have Mike Trout and are a very good bet to win more games in 2014 than the 77 they won last season. And the Astros, with the additions of Scott Feldman and Dexter Fowler, along with George Springer in June, aren't likely to be complete doormats this year.
 
Still, in the short term, Rangers fans have plenty of reason for optimism. The Rangers have everyone in their current core of Darvish, Holland, Perez, Fielder, Choo, Profar, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre under control through at least 2016, which gives them three shots at a title. And their depth of lower-minors prospects also puts them in excellent position to add talent at the trade deadline — interesting Class A players make ideal trade pieces for a contending team, because they aren't likely to help in the short term and because the team trading the prospects knows much more about them than the team receiving them. The Rangers' path to the playoffs shouldn't be easy, but they're guaranteed to be entertaining over the next several years, at the very least.
 
Their outlook beginning in 2017 or so is far less clear. But 2017 is three years from now, and the Rangers have already had four straight 90-plus-win seasons. The good run they're on isn't going to get any easier, but they've got more than enough talent to keep chugging for awhile.
 
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
 

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies made a series of moves this offseason, but seemingly lacked a cohesive strategy and may not be that much better this year than last.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings 
Extensions
  • None
Trades and Claims 
Notable Losses 

Needs Addressed
 
Coming off of two consecutive last-place finishes, the Rockies had the luxury of looking for upgrades at several areas, choosing those that offered the best fit and value. Both the rotation and pen looked like they could use some quality innings, but of course many viable strategies exist to add arms. And while Helton's retirement left an opening at first, internal options (such as shifting Michael Cuddyer or Wilin Rosario to first base duties) left ample flexibility. Though owner Dick Monfort downplayed the possibility of big spending, he did indicate that the team could bump payroll to the $95MM range to add the right pieces. 
To some extent, the Rockies did fill in some areas of need. Indeed, things got started in a sensible enough manner, as the club picked up the options of De La Rosa and Belisle (the latter representing a rarely exercised mutual option) while adding Hawkins on a modest contract to serve as closer. These moves shored up the back of the pen and seemingly set the team up to open the year with two southpaw options in the excellent Rex Brothers and solid Josh Outman (whose 4.33 ERA last year was not as impressive as his 3.25 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.35 SIERA, and shutdown performance against same-handed batters).
 
Colorado seemingly turned its attention to the catching market at that market, reportedly making runs at both Brian McCann and Carlos Ruiz. It was not terribly surprising that the team missed, with McCann signing for $85MM with the Yankees and Ruiz scoring $26MM from the Phillies, but the Rockies seemingly halted the bid to land a catcher after those two early signings.
 
The next step was somewhat difficult to explain. The Rockies sent out a young, relatively affordable, above-average center fielder in Fowler in exchange for nothing more than the former pitching prospect Lyles and reserve outfielder Barnes. Though Fowler has yet to sustain a break out over a full season, he has shown speed and some pop while getting on base at a solid clip, and has been worth somewhere around a two-and-a-half wins a year over his last three campaigns. While the team avoided Fowler's salary — $7.35MM in 2014 plus a raise through arbitation in 2015 — the return was underwhelming.
 
On the other hand, it could be that Fowler is a less attractive asset than one might expect, particularly given his fairly underwhelming defensive marks and backloaded contract. On the other side, Lyles has reportedly looked good this spring, though he is something of a lottery ticket and already has over two years of MLB service. Does he explain the deal? It certainly is possible that the Rockies targeted him as a good buy-low candidate. He does have a solid prospect pedigree, is still just 23, and may well have been rushed to the bigs in Houston. Moreover, advanced metrics like him better than his results (he has a career 4.25 SIERA and 4.23 xFIP, both more encouraging than the 5.35 ERA he has compiled in 377 MLB innings). And, importantly for Colorado, he has posted above-average groundball rates. With four years of control remaining, and reasonable arb earnings probably on the horizon, there is still time for the deal to work out. Even with that caveat, however, it is difficult to imagine that the club intended the rest of the offseason to be driven by a decision to open a hole in center to take a shot on Lyles.
 
Things got more confusing from there, as the Rockies immediately turned around and promised an aging Justin Morneau two years and $12.5MM to play first base. While someone had to play the position, the signing took up nearly all of the savings achieved by dealing Fowler without adding any likely production. Indeed, if anything, Morneau appears to be a downgrade: Fowler does a passable job at a premium defensive position, while Morneau is not only bound to first but has graded out poorly there in the last two seasons. Fowler is not only much younger and a better baserunner, but is actually a better hitter as well at this point in his career. Consider their respective stat lines over 2011-13: .276/.374/.439 (111 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 43 stolen bases for Fowler; .256/.319/.406 (98 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 1 stolen base for Morneau. To be fair, the team previously made a strong run at acquiring Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, bidding just $5MM less than the ultimate $68MM price tag, but the back-up plan seems to have lacked in creativity.
 
The ensuing trade for Anderson (pictured below) has obvious appeal, as the grounder-inducing lefty looks like a nice fit for Coors Field and was still relatively inexpensive at the tail end of an early-career extension. Of course, given his injury history, taking on the contract ($8MM this year and a $12MM option for next with a $1.5MM buyout, less the $2MM chipped in by the A's) carries some downside. And Colorado had to give up once and for all on its own once-prized prospect in Pomeranz. 
 
Surely, by this point, the Rockies had covered the Fowler savings. Nevertheless, Colorado decided to enter into one of the most eye-popping deals of the offseason, guaranteeing situational lefty Boone Logan a whopping $16.5MM over three years. That fell just shy of the top overall guarantees made to Joe Nathan and Brian Wilson, and easily was the most cash promised to a lefty specialist. Indeed, Logan has consistently been hit by right-handed batters. While he is better against lefties, Outman has been better.
 
Taking things somewhat full circle, the Rockies cleared the sudden left-handed logjam in their pen by shipping Outman to the Indians for center fielding option Drew Stubbs. Of course, Stubbs, who like Fowler comes with two seasons of control before reaching free agency, was significantly more expensive than Outman ($4.1MM versus $1.25MM). While he is probably a better defender than Fowler, Stubbs has struggled to get on base, been over three times more likely to strike out than to draw a walk, and shown an inability to hit righties. Barring a step forward, he could be headed for a non-tender next year; if not, his total cost will be within shouting distance of Fowler's.
 
Questions Remaining
 
Things did not really come full circle, perhaps, until more recently, when a report emerged that the Rockies "remain concerned with their leadoff spot and center field." The team is apparently unsatisfied with the three remaining up-the-middle options: Stubbs, Barnes, and Charlie Blackmon. (Of course, Colorado had already gone through the strange act of naming star Carlos Gonzalez as the new center fielder and then removing him from that post on the eve of Spring Training.) It is somewhat difficult to imagine a problem more clearly of a team's own making than this one. The club now faces a big question mark in center, and will save relatively little cash at the position for its troubles.
 
Worse, while it is true that Fowler did not grade out as a strong defender over his time in Colorado, the team lost an opportunity to pursue an alternative acquisition strategy and move a terrible defender to first base. Despite a stellar year at the plate, Cuddyer rated as the very worst position player in all of baseball last year. Likewise, while his bat delivers good averge and pop, Rosario is an abysmal pitch framer and scored the lowest defensive ratings of all qualified backstops last year. The entire shake out of the Fowler trade and Morneau signing could hover over the team's season.
 
Elsewhere, the Rockies should be able to let the second base battle between DJ LeMahieu and Josh Rutledge work itself out over the course of the year, though neither looks like a sure bet to be an average regular. The rest of the lineup appears set, and the amount of production will simply come down to questions of health (Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki), aging (Cuddyer, Morneau), and development (Rosario, Nolan Arenado). 
 
The club still faces some pitching questions too, of course, though generally they are of the wait-and-watch variety as well. Several injury or injury recovery scenarios bear watching, including those of Anderson and Jhouylis Chacin among starters. The watch is on for the arrival of top starting prospects Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler. And there seems to be almost an implicit expectation that Hawkins will ultimately be usurped as the closer by Brothers.
 
Deal of Note
 
The move to add Anderson could be a worthwhile risk for this ballclub. While Anderson's high established ceiling was intriguing to many clubs, his skill mix seems especially useful for the Rockies, who have clearly prioritized groundball-inducing pitching of late. Anderson has steadily driven his groundball rate up into the high-fifty-percent range, which is about where the top sinkerball starters max out over the course of a season. 
Anderson
 
Though the 26-year-old may never be the kind of guy you simply assume will give you 200 quality innings, due to his injury history, this looks to be a good time to add him. With two years of control, Colorado gets to capture some upside if he succeeds. If he falters, or his body fails him, the 2015 option is also an out for the team to avoid wasting cash. And if Anderson resumes his former trajectory, Colorado will have exclusive negotiating rights and a reasonably valuable trade chip.
 
On the other hand, perhaps too little attention has been paid to the non-monetary return that went to the A's. Though Anderson has drawn strong reviews for his work over the spring, so too has the once-hyped Pomeranz. The key piece in the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians, Pomeranz has actually logged less than 400 professional innings (more than a third of which have come at the MLB level) since becoming the fifth overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft. He struck out ten batters per nine in 91 minor league innings last year. 
 
As Oakland GM Billy Beane put it: "He's only 25, and a lot of people still think very highly of his abilities, and we felt it was a good time to acquire him." Indeed, Pomeranz shows just one year and 50 days of MLB service on his odometer, meaning he'll play at league minimum until 2016 and remain under team control until 2019. At worst, Pomeranz's power from the left side has been much more effective against same-handed hitters, and he could add plenty of value from the pen. 
 
Conclusion
 
So, did the series of whack-a-mole moves result in a net benefit to the Rockies, by cost savings, production, or both? We'll have to watch to find out, but I suspect not. Even if Fowler warrants a big raise next year (which would mean a strong season), it is hard to imagine he'll cost much more than $17MM over two years, and we know Outman took down a $1.25MM salary for 2014. Compare that with the $33.1MM that Colorado has now guaranteed to Stubbs, Morneau, and Logan, along with the roll of the dice on Lyles. (I'm assuming the team adds Anderson under either scenario.)
 
It is eminently arguable that the Rockies would have fielded a better team and saved some cash had they simply gone after a player like Nate McLouth, David Murphy, or Chris Young – or, for that matter, used an internal option like Corey Dickerson – and shifted Cuddyer to first. Alternatively, the club could have made a somewhat more substantial move at catcher, moving Rosario. Admittedly that market had pretty significant demand, but the 28-year-old, flyball-hitting Jarrod Saltalamacchia signed for just $4.5MM more than the Rockies promised Logan over the same term. Even if the team felt determined to move on from Fowler and add a first baseman, it might have received a better return on investment from someone other than Morneau. Michael Morse and Corey Hart both landed one-year deals at similar annual rates, and .
 
If the division-rival Diamondbacks' multiple swaps left some observers questioning that front office's imperatives of finding power bats and arms, some of the Rockies' moves left a trail of confusion. It is one thing to fault a team for its strategy or value assessment, and quite another not to be able to tell just what the team is hoping to accomplish. 
 
We know that the club was willing to commit some serious cash to land McCann or Abreu, and those misses may have forced a mid-stream adaptation. But the results are hard to explain. If we credit the Rockies for taking a chance on spinning a solid player in Fowler for a post-hype, low-service-time arm in Lyles, then what do we make of the opposing move to deal Pomeranz to take on the short-term upside of Anderson? Perhaps those decisions were driven primarily by the team's scouting assessments, rather than broad roster structuring purposes; in that case, the front office will be judged by the outcome.
 
Of course, the Rockies still probably have enough talent to become a contender this year or next, if things break right. But it is arguable that the club could have had even more talent and even fewer salary commitments on its MLB roster. Owner Dick Monfort says that, with its business model, the team can reasonably aim to qualify for the post-season about "twice every five years." (One of every three clubs make it to the post-season, of course, in any given year.) But it has been four full seasons since that has happened, and the Rockies still seem like one of the least-likely post-season contenders in baseball.
 
If measured spending growth is to be the guiding principle, a more thoughtful allocation of limited resources may be needed to deliver on-field success. Given his statements and the team's actions, Monfort appears to have in mind to create a sort of competition/reload cycle, rather than being a boom-or-bust franchise. But the Rockies are in the fairly rare situation of having two in-prime stars under control at a reasonable price for the foreseeable future. Without decisive action in either direction (present or future production), the organization risks being trapped in a bubble of mediocrity.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

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The Angels' level of spending did come anywhere near that of the previous two offseasons as the club worked to avoid luxury tax penalties by adding a pair of young arms via trade.

Major League Signings

  • Joe Smith, RHP: Three years, $15.75MM.
  • Raul Ibanez, DH/OF: One year, $2.75MM.
  • Total spend: $18.5MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Angels entered the offseason with a clearly stated purpose: acquire young, controllable starting pitching without breaking the bank — and thereby incurring luxury tax penalties — in order to do so. Plan A may have been Matt Garza, as reports indicated that the eventual Brewers hurler first received a four-year, $52MM offer from the Halos. Garza confirmed the offer, adding that he was on vacation with his wife at the time of the offer and said he didn't want to think about his contract at that point. By the time his vacation was over, Anaheim had pulled the offer. (Garza would sign for $2MM less but with Milwaukee but the opportunity to earn up to $67MM via incentives and an option.)

And so, the Angels turned to the trade market in order to bolster the starting five. Despite having one of the game's worst farm systems (a result of sacrificing numerous first-round picks to sign the likes of Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and others), GM Jerry Dipoto was able to accomplish this feat by trading Trumbo to the Diamondbacks in a three-team deal.

Skaggs-Tyler-AngelsIn Skaggs (pictured), Dipoto acquires one of the pitchers he acquired while serving as Arizona's interim GM in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the Angels. The former Top 10 prospect struggled in 2013 due to diminished velocity but looks to have regained some of that missing heat in 2014 already — a promising turn of events for Angels fans. Some view Santiago as a reliever and feel his ERA is a mirage thanks to his substandard command. His ERA may be misleading, but even if Santiago can pitch at a mark near his 4.49 career FIP, the addition of him and Skaggs could benefit the Halos for years to come. As fly-ball pitchers, both should benefit from an outfield anchored by Mike Trout in center.

The outfield defense would've been stronger, but Dipoto & Co. saw fit to dispatch Bourjos and former first-rounder Grichuk to St. Louis in exchange for Freese and Salas. Freese is a decent bounce-back candidate but has long had health questions. He could provide an upgrade in Anaheim, as Angels third basemen slashed just .249/.308/.332 as a whole, but he has just two years of team control remaining to Bourjos' three and is considerably more expensive. Salas has pitched at replacement level since a strong 2011 and doesn't figure to benefit from the move to the American League. He'll look to join a bullpen that posted the fifth-worst combined ERA in all of baseball last season (4.12).

It was that underwhelming performance that led the Angels to aggressively pursue Smith — a former righty specialist who has shown a great deal of improvement versus left-handed hitters in recent years. However, as broken down by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes at the time of the signing, Smith doesn't have elite control, doesn't miss many bats and had his excellent 2013 propped up by an unsustainable strand rate. While his ground-ball tendencies are strong, one wonders if the Angels would have been better suited to wait out the relief market and sign a cheaper arm. Doing so would have allowed them to add a safety net such as Paul Maholm or Chris Capuano on a minor league deal, should Skaggs, Santiago or Garrett Richards need minor league time or should Wilson or Jered Weaver hit the disabled list.

Questions Remaining

While the additions of Skaggs and Santiago give the Angels a serviceable pair of lefties to round out the rotation, the duo doesn't come without risk. Skaggs has his velocity back, but he's yet to so much as sniff big league success, as reflected by his 5.43 ERA in 68 career innings. Santiago's never topped 149 innings in a professional season, and even Richards, the incumbent third starter, has never topped 157 innings (2011). Joe Blanton offers depth to absorb some starts, but his signing has proven to be an abject bust to this point, and there's little Major League ready depth beyond right-hander Matt Shoemaker and non-roster invitee Wade LeBlanc. All of this makes the decision to non-tender Williams — who was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just $3.9MM — rather puzzling. The veteran swingman could've served as a nice insurance policy given the likely presence of three starters who aren't used to shouldering this type of workload in manager Mike Scioscia's rotation. Instead, the Angels have considered carrying an extra reliever due to rotation questions, as Mike DiGiovanna wrote earlier in the spring.

Among the club's established players, it's a gross understatement to say that health will determine the fate of this club. Albert Pujols missed 61 games and was hobbled by plantar fasciitis even when in the lineup, leading to the worst season of his career. Josh Hamilton's home run power went missing as he played through a variety of minor maladies without ever hitting the disabled list. He also continued the concerning trend of whiffing in roughly a quarter of his plate appearances. Freese missed significant time with persistent back issues, and Erick Aybar hit the DL for a third straight season.

Despite the addition of Smith, the bullpen lacks much in the way of reliable relievers. Ernesto Frieri has emerged as a solid, albeit erratic ninth-inning arm, but the rest of the relief corps will be comprised of Dane De La Rosa, Kevin Jepsen and Sean Burnett (who missed nearly all of 2013). Beyond that, names like Cory Rasmus, Michael Kohn, Salas and Moran will be fighting for spots.

Also worth some degree of concern is the lost power with the departure of Trumbo. The Halos will attempt to recoup some of that pop through the 41-year-old (42 in June) Ibanez, who clubbed 29 homers with the Mariners in 2013. However, Ibanez also posted just a .306 OBP (not that Trumbo was better in that regard) and wilted in the season's second half last year, slashing just .203/.295/.345 with a mere five of his 29 homers. The Angels seem to be counting on him as their everyday DH, but they could be in trouble if his post-All-Star-break form of 2013 was a portent of things to come. A rebound from former first-round pick C.J. Cron in the minors would give them a nice alternative, but the upper levels of their farm system doesn't carry much in the way of impact bats.

Deal of Note

It seems silly that when discussing a team as deep-pocketed as the Angels — they of $240MM and $125MM commitments to Pujols and Hamilton in 2011 and 2012 — the "deal of note" would be a mere $1MM signing. However, when that one-year, $1MM contract is issued as a sign of good faith to the game's best player, it carries some weight.

The Angels gave Mike Trout the largest salary ever for a pre-arbitration player that wasn't on a Major League deal coming out of the draft — a far cry from the meager $510K salary he received following his MVP runner-up in 2012. Trout and the Angels are said to be discussing an extension that could span six years and begin in 2015 (so as to avoid luxury tax implications for the coming season). Trout has gone on record as stating that he's fine with discussing a new contract once the season begins, so there's no rush for the Angels to get a deal done.

However, another MVP-caliber season that positions Trout for a record-setting payday could arguably be a bigger risk for the Angels than signing him to a record-setting extension right now. A third consecutive historic season might be enough to convince Trout that he's better off going year to year through the arbitration process and hitting the open market in search of baseball's first $300MM (and perhaps even $400MM) contract as a 26-year-old.

Overview

The Angels have three players on their active roster who have been considered among the game's five to 10 best hitters within the past three years in Trout, Pujols and Hamilton. As such, it would be a mistake to completely write this team off despite the poor performance of the latter two in 2013. A rebound from Pujols and/or Hamilton would drastically alter the perception of this team, particularly in light of injuries suffered by the Athletics (Jarrod Parker) and Rangers (Derek Holland) that will undoubtedly impact their seasons.

However, the uncertainty that shrouds those fading stars could be applied to the entire team. Will Freese stay healthy? Can their rotation succeed with a trio of starters that have never even reached 160 innings in a season? Does Trout have another 10-WAR season in him? Will a largely unproven bullpen be able to hold the leads it inherits?

When it comes down to it, the Angels have a big-market payroll but many of the question marks typically associated with a mid- to small-market club. Contention is a long shot, but if their big guns rebound, the rest of the division had best be on full alert, because the Angels possess enough star power to make a run if things break their way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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After an excellent four-year run, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a huge extension but otherwise only made small moves this offseason, perhaps preparing to set aside more money to retain other members of their increasingly-expensive core.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Reds made only one significant trade and three small MLB-level free agent signings. The Brayan Pena contract preceded the Ryan Hanigan deal, which briefly meant the Reds had three MLB-caliber catchers (Pena, Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco). They then sent Hanigan, a better player than Pena, to Tampa for a pitching prospect (David Holmberg) who isn't likely to make a significant impact. If the Reds can get anything out of Holmberg (who lacks upside but could provide a bit of starting rotation depth), the Hanigan trade might turn into a modest win for them — Hanigan doesn't hit much, and the trade opens more playing time for the younger Mesoraco. But the Reds will likely miss Hanigan's pitch-framing.

The Reds also signed Skip Schumaker, an aging, light-hitting 2B/OF who isn't good at either position, to a perplexing two-year deal. They did much better in re-signing Manny Parra, who made lefties look ridiculous last season and who should play a key role in the Reds' 2014 bullpen. At $5.5MM, he's a great deal, especially compared to roughly-similar lefties like Boone Logan and Javier Lopez who got three-year contracts. Logan got three times as much ($16.5MM) from the Rockies as Parra did from the Reds.

Questions Remaining

The Reds have done little to compensate for the departure of Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP, and instead they'll hope that Billy Hamilton can step into their outfield. The difference between Choo and Hamilton might not be quite as enormous as it initially appears, since Hamilton's baserunning is so valuable and since Choo wasn't an ideal fit for center field. But offensively, Hamilton is a big step down, and after a season in which he posted a .308 OBP at Triple-A Louisville, there are questions about how often he'll be able to reach base and use his speed. Last fall, we suggested the Reds might acquire another outfielder as an insurance policy, but they haven't, unless you count Schumaker. (Chris Heisey will be the Reds' main outfield backup.) They might have also been able to use a backup plan in left field, where the aging and often inconsistent Ryan Ludwick is anything but a certainty, particularly after a 2013 season shortened by a major injury.

With Bronson Arroyo's departure, the Reds also have concerns about their rotation depth, but there appears to be little they can do about it. (Holmberg's addition should help a bit there.) And now closer Aroldis Chapman is out for six weeks to two months after a nasty recent injury. Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall are both also returning from injury. The Reds' bullpen should be strong overall once everyone gets healthy, however.

Deal Of Note

USATSI_7758155With Choo and Arroyo departing, Homer Bailey's impending free agency represented a test for the Reds, and they did open their wallets, signing him to a six-year deal with an option for a seventh. While $105MM guaranteed may seem like an astronomical figure for a pitcher with Bailey's generally undistinguished track record, it's worth keeping in mind that teams ought to pay players for what they're going to do, not what they've already done.

In recent years, Bailey has made slow but significant improvement in a number of key areas — his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and even his velocity. He was a top-of-the-rotation-type pitcher in 2013, and at age 27 (28 in May), he's a very good bet to remain one in the near future. As MLBTR's Steve Adams recently noted, Bailey's contract is one of several (including those of Masahiro Tanaka, Freddie Freeman and Phil Hughes) that reflect the importance of age. There's a good chance Bailey will improve in the near future, unlike the vast majority of players who sign $100MM contracts.

Overview

Immediately after the 2013 season, the Reds fired manager Dusty Baker, replacing him with former pitching coach Bryan Price. That began a tumultuous offseason in which the Reds braced for Choo's departure and prepared to trade star second baseman Brandon Phillips. One might have thought that the Reds were coming off a 70-win season, rather than 90 wins and a playoff berth. The Reds ultimately held onto Phillips, but otherwise, their offseason behavior wasn't typical of a contending team. While the Reds don't usually have splashy offseasons, their quiet winter means their talent level is significantly behind that of the Cardinals, and probably behind that of the Pirates again as well.

Part of the problem might be the need to look to the future. The Reds now have Bailey locked down for the next several years, but Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake will all be eligible for free agency following the 2015 season. The Reds have one good young pitcher in Tony Cingrani and at least one more on the way in top prospect Robert Stephenson, but they may still have to either ink some combination of Cueto, Latos and Leake long-term or scramble to fill rotation spots in two years.

Meanwhile, the rest of their team is about to get very expensive. Joey Votto, Phillips and Bailey will make a total of $32MM in 2014, but they'll cost $51MM in 2016 and $55MM in 2017. Those are huge numbers for a small-market team.

At this point, the Reds have gotten lots of mileage out of their once-young core of Votto, Phillips, Jay Bruce, Leake, Bailey and Cueto — they've won 90-plus games and gone to the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. As the economics of baseball drive those players' salaries north, though, it will be tougher and tougher for the Reds to keep them. It will also be tough to fill holes around them without more star-caliber talent on the way from the farm system. Baseball Prospectus recently ranked the Reds' group of 25-and-under players (led by Stephenson, Hamilton, Mesoraco and Cingrani) 23rd-best in the Majors. Baseball America (subscription required) was even less charitable, ranking the Reds 27th in the 25-and-under category.

The Reds are, to some degree, victims of their own success. They haven't had a top-ten draft pick since they selected Leake eighth overall in 2009. While recent first-rounders like Stephenson and Phillip Ervin appear to be good players, it isn't easy to develop stars when there are always at least a dozen teams picking ahead of you, especially if your team isn't traditionally a big player for Latin American amateur talent.

Within this context, their trade for Choo before the 2013 season looks like it might have been more of a one-last-shot move than the sort of deal the Reds typically make. That isn't to say it will be impossible for the Reds to contend in 2014, only that their days of being a perennial 90-win team may be nearing an end, at least for now.

The Reds' NL Central rivals in Milwaukee have had similar problems recently — the Brewers had a successful run of seasons with their Ryan Braun / Prince Fielder core, but struggled to maintain their success after those players got expensive. In the long term, the Reds' situation isn't as dire as the Brewers', because the Reds have done a better job in recent years of acquiring and developing young talent. But the parallels are hard to ignore. If you're a small-market team, it can be difficult to manage your assets as they start to earn more money. The Reds might have some tougher sledding ahead.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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Between keeping David Price and preparing to spend a franchise-record high in payroll, the Rays are going all-in on challenging for a pennant in 2014.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Ryan Hanigan, C: Three years, $10.75MM ($3.75MM club option for 2017 with an $0.8MM buyout).
  • David DeJesus, OF: Two years, $10.5MM ($5MM club option for 2016 with a $1MM buyout).

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It's not exactly Dodgers/Yankees territory, but for the Rays, their 2013-14 offseason counts as a major financial splurge.  Between their commitments to pre-arbitration players and the approximately $71.64MM committed to 18 players, Tampa Bay will be spending over $80MM on payroll next season, the highest in franchise history (thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info).  Executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman openly admitted that this type of payroll was "certainly not a sustainable number in terms of where we are revenue-wise" in early January, and that was even before the Rays added Grant Balfour on a two-year, $12MM contract. 

USATSI_7505820

And yet, as Friedman noted, "we felt like we had a really good chance to be great next year, that’s why we’re doing what we’re doing.”  While you can count on the Rays trimming back the payroll next offseason, right now they're willing to take a one-year financial hit in order to chase a World Series, and Friedman has assembled a club that stands as one of the favorites to win it all in October.

The first hint that this could be a more expensive winter than usual for Tampa Bay came when the team somewhat surprisingly picked up David DeJesus' $6.5MM option for 2014, and then converted that deal into a two-year, $10.5MM contract with a 2016 option.  Keeping DeJesus on an eight-figure deal seemed like a curious move given that the Rays already had Matt Joyce as a left-handed hitting outfield option.  Joyce's name was floated on the trade market over the winter but ultimately kept in the fold, so between he and DeJesus, the Rays will have the left field and DH spots covered whenever they face a right-handed starter. 

The Rays also added a right-handed bench bat in Logan Forsythe, who was the most experienced piece of a five-player package acquired in a late-January trade with San Diego.  Forsythe and minor league signings Jayson Nix and Wilson Betemit all fit the Rays' penchant of acquiring versatile bench players, and since Forsythe is only 27 and has some strong minor league numbers to his name, he's a player that could earn a bigger role with the club in the future.  The starting middle infield combo of Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar had their options exercised for 2014, and the Rays also have options on both veterans for 2015.

Left-hander Alex Torres was sent to the Padres in the Forsythe trade, a loss that Friedman explained was tolerable since the Rays already have southpaws Jake McGee and Cesar Ramos in the bullpen.  The relief corps saw some major turnover in the offseason, with Fernando Rodney, Wesley Wright and Jesse Crain (who never actually threw a pitch as a Ray) leaving and Balfour, minor league signing Mark Lowe and Heath Bell all coming into the fold.  Juan Carlos Oviedo also re-signed with the Rays for a guaranteed $1.5MM after they declined his $2MM option for 2014.

Bell and Ryan Hanigan came aboard in the Rays' biggest move of the offseason, a three-team deal with the Diamondbacks and Reds.  Tampa Bay gave up two minor prospects in order to acquire what they hope will be their everyday catcher and to take $4.5MM of Bell's salary off the Diamondbacks' hands.  Bell could also much more than just a salary dump, given that he posted a 2.71 SIERA and 3.08 xFIP in 65 2/3 IP last season, though a .337 BABIP and an 18.5% home run rate boosted Bell's ERA to a (still not bad) 4.11 ERA.

Hanigan became expendable in Cincinnati when the Reds signed Brayan Pena, and the Rays moved quickly to lock Hanigan up to a three-year extension following the trade.  He is known for being an excellent defensive catcher in terms of pitch-framing and throwing out would-be base-stealers, but he also posted a .275/.370/.360 slash line over 1320 PA from 2006-12 before slumping to a .567 OPS in 2013 that may have been caused by a .216 BABIP.

Since the Rays brought back veteran Jose Molina, they had a surplus of their own at catcher that was addressed when Jose Lobaton and two High-A prospects were traded to the Nationals for right-hander Nate Karns.  The 26-year-old Karns brings yet another live arm to Tampa's organization, as he has a career 2.66 ERA, 2.83 K/BB and 10.5 K/9 through 304 minor league innings, though the 2014 Baseball America Prospect Handbook (which ranked him the ninth-best prospect in Washington's system) believe he projects as a future setup man unless he improves his command and adds a third pitch beyond his "91-95 mph power sinker" and "wipeout hammer curveball, which ranges from 82-85 mph."

After hitting on Casey Kotchman in 2010 and missing on Carlos Pena in 2011, the Rays struck paydirt on another short-term first base reclamation project when James Loney revived his career with a 2.7-WAR season.  The Rays checked out the market for other first basemen, including discussing a trade for Ike Davis with the Mets, before sticking with the familiar option and re-signing Loney to a three-year, $21MM contract (their largest free agent commitment ever), beating out similar offers from the Pirates, Brewers and Astros.

Questions Remaining

The Rays could use a more proven right-handed bench bat than their current selection of Forsythe, Betemit, Nix and Sean Rodriguez, though Forsythe has a solid .290/.363/.430 slash line in 249 career PA against lefty pitching.  Zobrist's power numbers took a drop last season, though he improved his contact rate.  Fifth starter Jeremy Hellickson will miss up to two months of the season after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery, though the Rays have Jake Odorizzi, minor league signing Erik Bedard and Ramos as fill-in options.

If these seem like nit-picking problems, you're right, as there isn't much left to question about a very talented Tampa Bay squad.  It's easy to see why Friedman and principal owner Stuart Sternberg were inspired to spend some extra money this winter in order to patch up the few holes remaining in the roster — this may be the deepest and most versatile group of players in Rays history, which gives manager Joe Maddon even more opportunity to squeeze the most out of his club.

This feeling that the Rays were so close to a possible championship may be one of the reasons why Price is still in Tampa.  When the offseason began, it seemed as if a Price trade was almost inevitable, as dealing their ace with two years of remaining control would maximize the Rays' return.  This is just my speculation, but it's possible that some of the Rays' more expensive moves from earlier in the offseason (i.e. DeJesus' extension, Hanigan's extension, taking on Bell's salary) were made with the expectation that Price's salary would be off the books for 2014 and 2015.

Teams such as the Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays and Diamondbacks at least checked in on what it would take to obtain Price, though no serious trade rumors ever seemed to develop.  As the offseason hit January, opinions began to shift that the Rays would now keep Price through 2014, or at least until the trade deadline if the team struggled.  Price himself thought Masahiro Tanaka's late posting may have been a factor, as interested suitors like the Dodgers and D'Backs spent much of their offseason in pursuit of the Japanese right-hander rather than negotiating a deal with Friedman.    

Why didn't a Price trade materialize?  The simple answer is that Friedman didn't find an offer that met the high standard he required to move his best starting pitcher.  Friedman's ideal trade package included both blue-chip prospects for the future and quality everyday players who could help the Rays in 2014; that's a very high price tag (no pun intended) for any team to meet.  The Rays managed such a trick once when they dealt James Shields to the Royals, but since moving Price would further deplete the Rays' pitching staff, Friedman was likely looking for even more for Price than he received for Shields.

You could hardly call it a disappointment for the Rays that no trade partner emerged, as having Price atop the rotation is not exactly a burden, plus Friedman can always explore a deal next winter.  He'll get less of a return for just one year of Price's services, but that's a sacrifice Friedman would happily make if Price's presence helps the Rays to a World Series.

Deal Of Note

Between Rodney and Kyle Farnsworth, the Rays have had great success over the last few years at creating star closers out of cheap relief signings.  This season, however, Tampa Bay eschewed the low-cost veteran route and replaced Rodney by spending $12MM to sign Balfour.  It was a reasonable price for a free agent closer in this year's market, and $2MM less than the Mariners paid to sign Rodney.

The problem with paying extra for a closer, of course, is that if the closer struggles or gets injured, that loss hurts a small-market team even harder.  Balfour's health became a question mark when the Orioles walked away from a two-year, $15MM agreement with the closer due to concerns about his knee and wrist.  Since Balfour passed his Rays physical and the O's also nixed an agreement with Tyler Colvin over a physical, it could be that Baltimore is just particularly cautious and Balfour is fine.  Still, Balfour's recent dead arm issue during Spring Training undoubtedly caused some concern for Rays fans, even though Balfour is back throwing with no apparent problem.

If the Rays were ever going to sign a closer to an eight-figure deal, however, Balfour is a good fit.  He is both a known quantity to the Rays (having pitched for the club from 2007-10) and he's been one of the better relievers in baseball in recent years, amassing a 2.47 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 2.82 K/BB rate over 254 2/3 IP from 2010-13 and posting an incredible 2.9 rWAR performance as a setup man in 2008.  It's a track record that comes at a price for the Rays, but Balfour's history indicates he'll be worth it.

Overview

The Rays are no strangers to the postseason, and since most of their young core is controlled, it isn't like 2014 will be the last time the Rays are ever in the playoff hunt.  Nonetheless, this year seems like it carries extra weight for Tampa given their added payroll and their closing window with Price, as a long-term extension for the ace left-hander still seems quite unlikely. 

In my Rays Offseason Outlook piece from October, I wrote that "Friedman needs the return on the Price trade to keep the Rays afloat for championship runs for the rest of the decade."  One could argue that Friedman hurt the 2019 or 2020 Rays by not dealing Price at the best possible time, but then again, if Friedman couldn't find a deal to his liking, maybe this past offseason wasn't that ideal time.

Since the Rays are putting such a focus on this season, could we see Tampa Bay acquire a high-priced contract at the trade deadline if Friedman feels it's the last piece of the puzzle?  As Sternberg recently said, "this year's the exception….we want to give this organization and teams like this a chance to compete and win. And we know that it's going to cost us more than we can afford."  While the Rays' expenditures are still very much on the modest side, Sternberg's words have to be music to Tampa Bay fans' ears.

Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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After somewhat quietly spending over a hundred million dollars in free agency, and not so quietly committing about double that to extend their best pitcher, the Dodgers return a high-priced, star-studded team that will be disappointed with anything less than a championship.

Major League Signings

  • Alexander Guerrero, 2B: four years, $28MM.
  • Erisbel Arruebarrena, SS: five years, $25MM.
  • Juan Uribe, 3B: two years, $15MM.
  • J.P. Howell, LHP: two years, $11.25MM.
  • Brian Wilson, RHP: one year, $10MM. Includes $9MM player option for 2015.
  • Dan Haren, RHP: one year, $10MM.
  • Chris Perez, RHP: one year, $2.3MM.
  • Jamey Wright, RHP: one year, $1.8MM.
  • Paul Maholm, LHP: one year, $1.5MM.
  • Total Spend: $113.85MM (Including Wilson option)
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Trades and Claims
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
 
After the ownership change, massive spending, and public attention on the game's apparent new force, the Dodgers had a mandate going into this offseason: lock down homegrown ace Clayton Kershaw. GM Ned Colletti got it done, signing the big lefty to a record-setting pact that will keep him in Los Angeles through his age-32 season … at least, unless he opts out two years prior to gain a chance at another massive payday. Either way, the Dodgers avoided the scenario (however unlikely) of losing one of the game's very best players after the upcoming season.
 
Kershaw
For a team with championship aspirations, another key issue was the contract situation of manager Don Mattingly, who seemed unhappy to be entering the year without a guarantee extending to the future. The club put an end to any possible problems in that arena by giving Mattingly an extension that covers the 2014-16 seasons.
 
Beyond taking care of their own, the Dodgers did face several roster decisions, especially after declining the options of Capuano and Ellis (the latter somewhat more surprisingly than the former). That left openings at both second and third as well as some innings to fill at the back of the rotation and the pen. And, of course, there was the question whether Los Angeles would make a play for a top-end free agent, with Robinson Cano, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka all looking like possible targets for the west coast financial powerhouse. 
 
But the club did not end up making any top-dollar acquisitions. While it most looked like a player on Tanaka, Los Angeles seemingly pulled out of engaging in a real bidding war with the Yankees. Nevertheless, while landing far short of the Yanks' extraordinary outlay through free agency, the Dodgers did still manage to guarantee over $104MM through free agency (plus an additional $9MM promise to Wilson through his player option), the fourth-highest tally in the league. That was accomplished through volume: Colletti and company gave out as many guaranteed deals as did the Yankees (9), but promised just 18 years at an average annual value of $5.83MM through those contracts. (New York, by contrast, purchased 29 total seasons at the average cost of $16.24MM per.)  
 
That spending matched up — theoretically, at least — with the needs just outlined above. Uribe will reprise his role at the hot corner on a fairly modest contract, considering his production levels last year. (Of course, detractors would point to his less-than-stellar work for a stretch beforehand.) Haren and Maholm will provide rotation depth, especially with uncertainty still surrounding Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley. The latter figures to start the year in the pen, but provides a nice depth option at quite a low price, especially when one considers that Jason Vargas landed four years and $32MM.
 
Maholm will join Wilson, Howell, Wright, and Perez to form a deep unit in front of outstanding closer Kenley Jansen. (Indeed, the club just designated the seemingly useful Javy Guerra for assignment.) Of course, it is fair to wonder whether Wilson's deal was worth the risk: the 32-year-old threw less than 20 innings last year after returning from his second Tommy John surgery, yet got arguably the best contract of any free agent reliever. (His $19MM total guarantee falls $1MM of that given Joe Nathan by the Tigers, but Wilson's second year is a player option — giving him upside if he performs — while Nathan gave up a third-year option.)
 
The two largest commitments — Guerrero and Arruebarrena, a pair of Cuban prospects who signed for a total of $53MM — were expected to provide some answers up the middle. The defensive specialist Arruebarrena looks like a long-term investment: a high-floor prospect who will try to develop his bat in the upper minors. But Guerrero was seemingly signed to occupy the open slot at second. Said to have an MLB-ready bat at age 27, Guerrero entered camp with only fallen prospect Dee Gordon and a series of minor league free agents standing between him and the Opening Day roster. 
 
Questions Remaining
 
If second base was a question mark entering the offseason, it is a much greater one (in relative terms) now. Having declined the option of the solid-but-unspectacular Ellis, and seen that Guerrero was in need of seasoning before he can handle an everyday MLB role at a new position, Los Angeles is left with the prospect of starting Gordon at second. The risk is not difficult to spot: soon to turn 26, Gordon has posted a .256/.301/.312 line in 669 MLB plate appearances, and advanced defensive metrics have rated his glovework at short as below average. While he has speed to spare (66 career stolen bases), he may not profile as much more than a replacement-level player.
 
Can Gordon reclaim his former promise? Will Guerrero put it together once given some time to adjust in Triple-A? The answers could ultimately prove favorable to the Dodgers, but these are not questions that this team hoped to be facing as it lands in Sydney to prepare to kick off the season. It is tough to imagine that the team is not rethinking somewhat its decision to give Ellis a $1MM buyout rather than paying him $5.75MM to stick around for another season.
 
Similar issues seem present in the bench, where the Dodgers are reportedly looking to make additions at this late hour. Tim Federowicz is not a terribly exciting second catching option to pair with a solid-but-limited starter in A.J. Ellis. (Ellis had a tough year at the plate in 2013, delivers little pop, and has not been a very good pitch framer.) Otherwise, the team seems to have settled upon a relatively marginal mix, which at this point appears likely to include Scott Van Slyke, Justin Turner, Mike Baxter, and Chone Figgins. While there are things to like about each player, it would be difficult to say that there is much impact among that group.
 
Of course, there is still one source of possible impact off of the bench, although it could also be a source of trouble. With Matt Kemp still working back from injury, the oft-discussed four-way outfield situation has yet to come to a head. At some point, presumably, the team will be faced with managing the return of its highest-paid position player when three other well-paid players (Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig) have started the year with everyday jobs. If no injury, performance issue, or trade intercedes, the team will ultimately need to work out a way to manage four players who each "[want] to play every day," as Kemp himself said.
 
Finally, it is worth remembering that the Dodgers have yet to lock down shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who has been incredible since joining the club (at least while he has been on the field). There has been little reported movement on that front in recent weeks. Another big year could well leave Ramirez as the prize of the 2015 position player free agent market, and it may take a big contract to lock him up at this point. While Ramirez says he wants to stay with the organization long-term, it is still far from clear what both sides' parameters are.
 
One thing to keep an eye on, as well, is how the Dodgers' new TV network manages the negotiations to distribute the club's games in the Los Angeles market. There is a tendency to assume success with the announcement of each new television contract, but there is still plenty of risk in the execution of the entity's business plan. While the Dodgers reportedly have some protections in place to guarantee their income stream, the details remain hazy. 
 
Deal of Note
 
Much as I wanted to find a creative way to highlight something else, it is tough to ignore a contract that delivers the highest-ever annual salary for a Major League ballplayer — all the moreso when it is an extension for a pitcher. The Clayton Kershaw contract is, in some respects, the least-interesting mega-deal one could imagine: He has established himself as the game's best pitcher and is just entering his age-26 season. The Dodgers just signed an unfathomably large new TV deal and are one of the league's true glamour teams. Nobody seems surprised by the number ($215MM), large as it is.
 
On the other hand, the deal is certainly notable for the fact that it includes an opt-out clause permitting Kershaw to reach the open market after five years. (MLBTR's Tim Dierkes examined the history of opt-out clauses, in light of Kershaw's massive payday.) Relatively rare in the first place, the opt-out clause in Kershaw's deal is the first given to a pitcher in an extension scenario. (Only Vernon Wells and Elvis Andrus received extension clauses before Kershaw.) Having taken on $215MM of risk on one man's left arm, the Dodgers will not reserve for themselves the upside of his last two seasons if things work out. 
 
In the end, however, Kershaw may have had unprecedented bargaining power for a player. His incredible performance, stature, and youth — combined with the situation of his current team and his own proximity to free agency — left him situated as well as one could reasonably hope to drive a whole new kind of bidding war. Giving up that possibility was always going to cost a lot of money, and the Dodgers managed to secure Kershaw without clearly overspending relative to his demonstrated ability.
 
Overview
 
What do you buy for the team that has everything — or, at least, has the money to buy everything it does not have? That was the question seemingly facing Colletti in the offseason, and it was interesting to see how he responded. The club spent a lot of money, but its largest single commitment fell shy of those made by teams like the Astros, Brewers, Royals, and Twins.
 
Many have noted the potential value in the contracts given players like Haren, Maholm, and some of the bullpen additions. But while the Dodgers spent the fourth-most money in the league, it remains to be seen whether the club maximized the impact of those dollars in on-field results. The Wilson contract was certainly a risky proposition. With such a talented and expensive roster, it is fair to ask whether some of the team's still-sizeable outlay should have gone to a premium free agent at an area of potential impact, such as McCann. Alternatively, perhaps, with a bench set to be populated by several players picked off of waivers or added on minor league deals, some cash might have been well spent on achieving more production from the non-regular segment of the roster. 
 
Most of all, of course, Los Angeles faces a big hole at second. If the club has anything less than a strong start and the keystone looks to be a part of the problem, there will be intense pressure to act decisively to find a solution. That is rarely a good situation to be in. Likewise, the club will have to tread cautiously in managing its four outfielders, a situation that could result in friction. Though predictions would be unwise — the matter depends upon a multitude of hard-to-pin-down factors — suffice it to say that the scrutiny is already primed. 
 
It has become popular to lampoon the Dodgers for their free-spending ways, and indeed the club did manage to spend a princely sum through free agency. But the outlay was of quite a different character than the club's bold series of trades and free agent signings before the 2013 season. Does this signal an end to the organization's seemingly limitless dispensing of cash? A change in strategy? A reflection of the front office's evaluation of the talent and market rates being paid? It is hard to know, but we can expect that many such questions will be asked if the Dodgers do not ride their league-leading $225MM+ payroll all the way to a parade through downtown Los Angeles.
 
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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After making the playoffs in 2013 following the additions of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, the Indians had a quiet offseason.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Extensions

Needs Addressed

The Indians made an upside play to address their bullpen by signing John Axford to a one-year deal. Axford was often erratic as the Brewers' closer, but has great stuff and pitched well down the stretch for the Cardinals. If he performs with the Indians, they have the ability to take him to arbitration for two more seasons. The addition of Axford will help compensate for the losses of Chris Perez (who the Indians released after he lost his closer job down the stretch and wound up in trouble for receiving a package of marijuana at his home) and Joe Smith. Josh Outman, acquired in a deal with the Rockies, will also likely play a role in the Indians' revamped bullpen, perhaps along with Axford, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski and Vinnie Pestano. (Also this offseason, the Indians defeated Pestano and Josh Tomlin in their first arbitration cases since 1991.)

Taking Stubbs' place in right field will be David Murphy, who the Indians signed to a two-year deal. Murphy hit just .220/.282/.374 with the Rangers last season, but that was with a BABIP 75 points below his career rate, so he's a good bet to bounce back and provide a bit of offense, along with above-average defense, this season. If he does, Murphy, Bourn, Michael Brantley and Ryan Raburn could provide the Indians with an above-average outfield.

Questions Remaining

The Indians have taken a hit with the departures of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir this offseason, and will depend on a trio of younger arms in Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Danny Salazar. They'll also have Justin Masterson in his last season remaining before free agency. Those four players are all clearly worthy of rotation spots and should be fine, and Salazar, in particular, should help soften the blow of losing Jimenez and Kazmir. But the Indians are still without a fifth starter — Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Aaron Harang are competing for the job. Shaun Marcum may eventually be a factor, but he's still recovering from issues related to thoracic outlet syndrome.

There's also the matter of what they'll do with Masterson. Masterson should be able to command a hefty multiyear deal next offseason, but he has reportedly told the Indians he would be willing to take a three-year contract to stay in Cleveland. That seems extremely generous of him, but the two sides have not yet stuck a deal. (The Indians have also reportedly discussed an extension with star second baseman Jason Kipnis.)

Finally, the Indians are trying to figure out where they'll play Carlos Santana, who spent the offseason working out at third base. Yan Gomes figures to take most of the playing time at catcher, Santana's usual position. One possibility might be to have him platoon with Lonnie Chisenhall, a left-handed hitter, at third. Santana, a switch-hitter, could then spot Gomes at catcher or DH on days when Chisenhall is at the hot corner. Chisenhall struggled in the big leagues in 2013 but is still just 25 and has hit well at the Triple-A level. Much hinges, however, on how well Santana takes to the position.

Deal of Note

USATSI_7336812Brantley's four-year, $25MM extension, which contains an $11MM club option or a $1MM buyout for 2018, buys out one and perhaps two years of free agent eligibility. Brantley had filed for $3.8MM in his first season of arbitration, with the Indians offering $2.7MM. That's a fairly large difference, but the midpoint of $3.25MM would have positioned Brantley to make perhaps $13MM-$16MM in his three arbitration seasons. That means the Indians are effectively paying about $10MM for 2017, which is Brantley's age-30 season, plus the possibility of retaining him in 2018. Brantley is approximately an average player — he's never had a star-caliber season and doesn't have much power, but he hits for good averages and is competent in center or in a corner. The deal will be fine if he maintains his current level of performance, and very good if he takes a step forward as he heads into his late twenties.

Overview

The Indians' surprising 2012-13 shopping spree lingered this winter. A year ago, the Indians spent heavily on Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, improved by 24 games, and received … what? Attendance was actually lower in 2013 (1.57MM) than it had been in 2012 (1.60MM), and tiny home crowds, frequently in the 10K-13K range, watched the Indians down the stretch as they battled for, and won, a playoff spot. Then their season ended unceremoniously as they lost to the Rays in the AL Wild Card game.

The Indians responded with an offseason in which they didn't seem to make much of an effort to re-sign Jimenez, perhaps content to collect a compensation pick and move forward. They also lost Kazmir, who emerged from baseball oblivion to play a key role on the 2013 team.

This isn't to say the Indians will be helpless in 2014. Bourn and Swisher are still on the payroll, and they actually weren't crucial to the Indians' playoff run last year — Kipnis, Gomes, Santana and Raburn were the Indians' four best position players by fWAR. If Bourn and Swisher can contribute more in 2014, they can offset potential regression by Gomes and Raburn and help the Indians compensate for the losses of Jimenez and Kazmir. A full season from the very promising Salazar could also help the Indians significantly. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see them make another playoff run.

After their splashy 2012-13 offseason, though, the Indians haven't followed up, despite the lucrative TV deal to which they agreed prior to the 2013 season. The Indians could have shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (who will make $10MM in 2014) and perhaps Masterson ($9.76MM) come off the books after the season. If they do, and the Indians' attendance woes continue, it will be interesting to see how the team responds. If Masterson is in fact willing to take a three-year deal rather than a contract more along the lines of the $105MM extension Homer Bailey recently signed with the Reds, then signing him would seem to be a fairly easy decision, and a potential signal that the Indians are still willing to bid on top talent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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Coming off a World Series appeareance in 2013, the Cardinals decisively addressed their few obvious needs and now head into 2014 with a better defense and a good bat at shortstop.

Major League Signings

  • Jhonny Peralta, SS: four years, $53MM.
  • Aledmys Diaz, IF: four years, $8MM.
  • Mark Ellis, IF: one year, $5.25MM.
  • Total spend: $66.25MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Extensions

Needs Addressed

Peralta, the Cardinals' key offseason addition, may be due for a downswing after a .374 BABIP in 2013, but he'll likely still provide a big offensive boost over Pete Kozma, who was a hole in a strong 2013 lineup. Peralta also has long posted surprisingly good defensive numbers. At $53MM, Peralta wasn't cheap, particularly in light of the complete absence of a market for Stephen Drew, but he was one of the top players on the shortstop market, and the Cardinals badly needed an upgrade. Kolten Wong appears to be the Cardinals' second baseman of the future, with 2013 MVP candidate Matt Carpenter moving to third, but the Cards also added Ellis in case Wong isn't yet ready to step in.

Aledmys Diaz's future role with the Cardinals is less clear, given that the team already appeared to be set in the infield at the time of his signing, but he should provide depth, at the very least, in the near future. The Cardinals plan to have him start the season at Double-A, so it will likely be awhile before he makes an impact at the big-league level. Some scouts feel the 23-year-old Diaz may be stretched as a full-time shortstop, but he could play solid defense at second while hitting for average.

After moving Carpenter to third base, the Cardinals rewarded him for his excellent 2013 season with a six-year extension that bought out his last four years of team control and two free-agent seasons, with an option for a third. The signing, while not a huge overpay, is a gamble. Carpenter started his big-league career rather late and had already been under control through his age-31 season, so his contract buys out his age-32 and age-33 seasons, when he might be past his peak.

Questions Remaining

Not many. The Cardinals hardly bothered to address their pitching staff this offseason, probably (and sensibly) figuring that a rotation topped by Adam Wainwright and young guns Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller and a bullpen headed by young flame-throwers Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez was more than good enough on its own. (Martinez is also still a candidate to start.)

Offensively, it's unclear how much Bourjos and Wong will hit, but Bourjos' defense helps compensate for any offensive troubles, and Ellis is a very strong backup plan if Wong doesn't settle in. The Cardinals' offensive depth should give them decent options at nearly any position if there's an issue (with the possible exception of catcher, should Yadier Molina suffer a significant injury). 

Deal of Note

The Cardinals' trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas for Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk quietly addressed several issues in one fell swoop, no small feat for an organization that didn't have many issues to begin with. The Cardinals' outfield defense was probably an even bigger weakness than the shortstop position last season. They had aging veterans Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran in the corner outfield positions, with Jon Jay frequently looking like a fish out of water in center field. The three combined for -28.1 UZR in 2013.

The Cardinals let Beltran go to the Yankees, and they'll miss his bat, but the playing time top prospect Oscar Taveras will likely receive in his absence is a nice consolation prize. (Allen Craig will also likely receive playing time in right, especially at the start of the season — the Cardinals have already optioned Taveras to the minors after a spring training fraught with hamstring issues.) Jay will return, now in a reserve role. And Bourjos will provide an enormous defensive upgrade in center field. He's a ground-ball hitter who will likely be decent at best offensively, but if he's ten runs above average with the glove, he won't need to hit much. Meanwhile, trading Freese — also likely a below-average defensive player, particularly going forward — cleared the way for the Cardinals to install defensive upgrades at both third and second. The Cardinals also plan to use more shifts in 2014.

Overview

What do you get for the team that has everything? The Cardinals' only major weaknesses last season were shortstop and defense, and GM John Mozeliak addressed both this offseason. With Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal (neither of whom played for the Cardinals in 2013) coming off the payroll along with Beltran and Jake Westbook, the Cardinals had plenty of payroll space, and not much that they needed to spend it on.

The Cardinals do, of course, have a core of veteran stars in Wainwright ($19.5MM in 2014), Holliday ($17MM) and Molina ($15MM). But their flexibility stems from an army of effective homegrown players each making less than $4MM in 2014: Matt Carpenter (7.0 fWAR in 2013), Lance Lynn (3.3), Craig (2.6), Rosenthal (2.2), Miller (2.1), Jay (1.9), Matt Adams (1.7) and Wacha (1.1). That's the function not only of good scouting and development systems, but also simply a lot of talent getting to the Majors at the same time. The Cardinals' 2009 draft, which produced Carpenter, Rosenthal, Miller, Adams and pitcher Joe Kelly, was one of the best drafts in recent memory, and now the Cards are reaping the benefits. Those five players produced almost 14 WAR for a total of about $2.5MM in 2013, and it's hard not to pile up wins with that kind of head start.

That advantage will shrink in the coming years as those players become more expensive, but the Cardinals farm system can continue to augment a winning team, and Taveras and Wong, who could help this year's club, are no slouches. Taveras is still fighting to stay healthy, but whenever he ends up in the big leagues, he's a great bet to hit for average and probably also for power. Wong doesn't have Taveras' superstar upside, but he profiles as a solid contributor at second base.

After a strong offseason, the Cardinals have enough talent to make another playoff run. That their top competitors in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati shed talent (with the Pirates losing A.J. Burnett and the Reds losing Shin-Soo Choo and Bronson Arroyo) should only help, and so the Cardinals enter the season as favorites to win the NL Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals enjoyed their highest win total since 1989 last season, and GM Dayton Moore issued a pair of four-year contracts to free agents in an effort to push the team into the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Dayton Moore (General manager, two years)
  • Ned Yost (Manager, two years)

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Only the Cubs received less offensive production from their collective second basemen than the Royals last year, and only three teams — the A's, Astros and Yankees — received less offense from their right fielders (per Fangraphs' wRC+). Naturally, those were two of Moore's biggest priorities, and he was able to fill both vacancies without breaking the bank.

Aoki-Norichika-Royals

The four-year deal issued to Infante raised some eyebrows, but his glove and ability to hit for average with modest home run totals have made him a steady source of two to three wins above replacement over the past four years. Dating back to 2009, Infante's .296/.332/.413 triple-slash line translates to an OPS+ of exactly 100 and a wRC+ of 101, indicating that he's been a league-average hitter in that time. League-average doesn't sound exciting, but it's a heck of an upgrade over for a team that saw its second basemen combine to hit .240/.296/.306 in 2013 (64 wRC+).

The combined efforts of Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, Justin Maxwell and Lough produced a .256/.304/.379 batting line that should be bolstered by the addition of Aoki (pictured). Additionally, Aoki and his career .355 on-base percentage can slot into the leadoff spot for Yost and serve as an improvement over the .309 OBP produced by 2013's leadoff men.

Clearly, the loss of Santana's 211 innings and 3.24 ERA are a blow to the team, but Moore acted quickly to replace those innings by signing Vargas to a four-year deal. As I wrote at the time of the signing, most people focused on the sticker shock of four years for Vargas rather than looking at the relatively tame average annual value. Vargas' durability makes him a reliable source of league-average innings, and statistically, he's not that dissimilar from Mark Buehrle (more on that in the linked article). The contract doesn't come with great upside, but the reasonable AAV allowed Moore to add Infante with a similar line of thinking; tack on an extra year in order to lower the annual commitment.

Of course, Santana ultimately settled for a one-year deal with the Braves — a disappointing outcome that was preceded by the firing of his agent, Bean Stringfellow. Surely, Moore would've been happy to forego the Vargas signing had he known that he could've had Santana on a one-year deal down the line. However, as was the case with other early-season deals, there was no way to know that Santana would be in such a predicament. Rather than spend $12-16MM per year on a big name early in the offseason, Moore chose to divide that annual sum between Infante and Vargas, and there's a good chance the club will receive more total production because he did so.

The signing of Infante made Bonifacio a bit redundant, and that was illustrated by the team's decision to designate Bonifacio for assignment and ultimately release him despite having agreed to a one-year, $3.5MM deal to avoid arbitration. Such contracts aren't fully guaranteed until the season starts, and therefore the Royals only paid him roughly $575K. His salary (plus a bit more) was put toward the decision to bring Chen back into the mix for a rotation spot. Chen turned in a 3.27 ERA last season and has quite a bit of experience as a swingman, should one of the club's younger starters force his way into rotation consideration.

Questions Remaining

Though they addressed the two biggest holes in their lineup, the Royals aren't without questions. First and foremost is the rotation: Santana and Chen provided a relatively unexpected 333 innings of 3.25 ERA baseball for the Royals last season. It seems unlikely that Chen can repeat that feat, and Vargas, who has pitched to a 3.97 ERA over the past four seasons, isn't likely to match Santana's level of run prevention. Kansas City did receive 39 starts of an ERA well over 5.00 from Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza in 2013, so there's some room for improvement there if Yordano Ventura and/or Danny Duffy can take some of those starts and perform well.

The real question, when it comes to the team's rotation, is how many more innings James Shields has left as a Kansas City Royal. The two sides reportedly aren't planning on discussing an extension this spring, meaning Shields is all but certain to hit free agency next November. If the Royals were unable to meet Santana's early-winter asking price, it stands to reason that they'd also be unable to meet the dollars that will be doled out to their top pitcher in free agency, unless he takes a discount. MLBTR's Jeff Todd recently chatted with Tim and I about what Shields could earn in free agency and crafted an excellent analysis on the topic. If Shields is to earn more than $70MM — a very realistic possibility — could the Royals make a competitive offer? They'll have more than $20MM coming off the books from Shields himself, Luke Hochevar and Aoki hitting the open market, but they'll also face large arbitration raises to core players like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland. Beyond that, Alex Gordon, Infante, Vargas and Billy Butler will see their salaries rise by a combined $7.5MM.

Hosmer and Moustakas were among the game's top prospects for years, and each saw a drastic swing in his production midseason. Hosmer was batting just .261/.321/.335 on May 30 when George Brett took over as the team's interim hitting coach. For the rest of the season, Hosmer was a man on fire, slashing .317/.365/.492 with 16 of his 17 homers coming in that time. Will the improved version of Hosmer show up for the entire season? The same could be asked of Moustakas, whose OPS bottomed out at .528 on June 17 before he went on to bat a respectable .269/.314/.425 over his final 78 games.

Alcides Escobar took a big step back in 2013, though a large portion of his offensive decline was due to the fact that he batted just .555 on line-drives (league average was .690, per Fangraphs). Clearly, Escobar had some poor luck, though his 3% walk rate can't be blamed on that. Despite the lack of free passes, the 16 extra hits Escobar would have had with average luck would've boosted his average from .234 to .260 and his OBP from .259 to .284. Neither is a great mark, but paired with his defense and baserunning, Escobar could be quite valuable with better fortune.

With Gordon and Aoki locked into the outfield corners, it will be up to a combination of Dyson, Cain and Maxwell to man center field. Each is a very strong defender with some question marks at the plate, and a platoon seems like the most likely outcome. But, will Maxwell or Cain be the one to win the job as the platoon's right-handed side? Whichever ends up the odd man out would figure to be a decent trade chip for Moore.

Lastly, while it's a small question mark, the decision to guarantee Pena a spot on the 40-man roster seems peculiar. The 24-year-old is just a .236/.286/.348 hitter in his minor league career, and the club already had Kottaras and Brett Hayes in the mix. Pena may not even end up as the backup, either; MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted in his post on out-of-options players in the AL Central that Hayes seems to be the favorite to back up outstanding young catcher Salvador Perez.

Deal of Note

When considering the tight budget with which Moore was faced, it's tough to imagine a better fit for the club than Aoki. Kansas City's new leadoff man is guaranteed less than $2MM in 2014 — an unusually low salary for a regular player. Moore filled his need for a leadoff hitter and right fielder in the same trade, and did so without sacrificing the excellent defense Kansas City received from its right fielders in 2013.

Aoki's modest salary also allowed the Royals to spend to stabilize the rotation and provide a significant upgrade at second base for a reasonable price. That's key for this club, because while the payroll is projected to be in the low $90MMs, that's still a record-breaking commitment for the Royals. Consider that the alternative for the Royals was Carlos Beltran, who signed a three-year, $45MM pact with the Yankees. Kansas City pursued Beltran heavily, and had the Royals met his asking price, they likely wouldn't have been able to add Infante. The combination of Aoki and Infante is likely to contribute somewhere around four wins above replacement — a mark that Beltran alone may not reach — and do so for several million dollars less than $15MM.

Lastly, the Royals landed Aoki without surrendering any of their top prospects. Moore parted with lefty Will Smith to facilitate the deal, and while Smith had a nice season out of the Kansas City bullpen in 2013, five years of a reliever isn't a steep price to pay, especially for a team with the bullpen depth Kansas City can boast.

Overview

To call this a make-or-break season for the Royals could be an understatement. This is likely the team's last season with its best pitcher, and arbitration raises plus guaranteed raises to players on multi-year deals could prevent them from spending too freely on next year's open market. The hope is that someone such as Ventura can develop into a front-of-the-rotation arm, but there's no guarantee in that happening.

The Royals' best chance to win comes with Shields at the front of their rotation, and the front office has supplemented the current team with strong, relatively cost-effective options at second base and in right field. With a big season from Hosmer, Moustakas and/or Escobar, the Royals have the talent to give the Tigers and Indians a run for their money in the AL Central. Failing that, a coveted Wild Card spot certainly isn't out of the question. Royals fans could, at long last, see an unthinkable 28-year postseason drought come to an end in 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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