This is the first offseason with qualifying offers for free agents, rather than the Elias ranking system and "offering arbitration" to free agents. Teams have the opportunity to make qualifying offers of $13.3MM to their free agents by Friday at 5pm eastern time, assuming the player was with the team the entire season. If offered, players must decide whether to accept by November 9th at 5pm eastern time. Similar to the old system, accepting makes you a signed player for 2013, and declining puts you on the open market with a draft pick cost attached. Ben Nicholson-Smith explained qualifying offers in further detail in this May article.
The risk of making a qualifying offer is that the player might accept, so we won't see them made to players who are worth nowhere near $13.3MM. The benefit of offering is that the player may turn it down and sign elsewhere, giving his old team a supplemental draft pick at the end of the first round. It is possible to decline a club option and then make a qualifying offer. By my estimation, about a dozen players stand a reasonable chance of receiving a qualifying offer on Friday:
- Josh Hamilton: The Rangers will certainly offer, and Hamilton will definitely turn it down in search of a multiyear deal at a higher salary.
- Mike Napoli: This is a borderline case. My guess is that the Rangers do not offer, as Napoli would have a solid chance of accepting the $13.3MM salary and they may not want to allocate that amount of money to him for 2013.
- Michael Bourn: I expect the Braves to make Bourn a qualifying offer, as he's likely expecting a multiyear deal somewhere.
- B.J. Upton: The Rays will probably make the offer, as Upton also expects a much bigger contract. If he were to accept for some reason, he'd be tradeable.
- Nick Swisher: Another easy one: the Yankees will offer, and Swisher will decline in search of a multiyear deal.
- Edwin Jackson: This case probably gives the Nationals pause, as $13.3MM is a bit steep for Jackson. Still, they had good results for $11MM in 2012 and are likely to take the risk of the 21% raise. I imagine Jackson is all about a multiyear deal this time, anyway.
- Adam LaRoche: The Nationals want LaRoche back and are likely to make a qualifying offer.
- Dan Haren: This is a tricky one for the Angels. They can buy out Haren's $15.5MM option for $3.5MM; doing so indicates they don't value him at $12MM for one year. To make a qualifying offer after paying the buyout is a risk they probably would not take. The Halos could exercise Haren's option and then trade him, kicking in the $3.5MM they would have had to pay anyway and getting some kind of useful player in return.
- Hiroki Kuroda: Similar to Jackson, $13.3MM would feel a little steep for Kuroda but the Yankees will probably do it.
- Kyle Lohse: Lohse is a good bet to receive a qualifying offer from the Cardinals.
- Angel Pagan: Pagan is 31 and this is his best shot at a big multiyear deal. I expect the Giants to offer and Pagan to decline, though they could just work out a new contract.
- David Ortiz: The Red Sox might as well make the offer, as it gives them leverage and Ortiz clearly wants multiple years. I doubt he'd like a one-year deal at a pay cut or hitting the open market with a draft pick cost.
- Rafael Soriano: He's expected to choose a $1.5MM buyout over a $14MM salary for 2013. At that point the Yankees are rumored likely to make a qualifying offer. Soriano could accept and come out $800K ahead overall, or he could decline and look for multiple years despite the draft pick cost.
- Torii Hunter: I don't think the Angels would take the risk.
Time for you to weigh in…take the survey below and let us know who you think will receive a qualifying offer on Friday. Click here to view the results.
All of them should be a yes besides Hunter, Pagan, Haren, and Soriano.
Like many others, it’s all about the guys looking for multi-year contracts.
What would you rather want? 1yr/$13.3m or 3yr/$35m
Shocker would be if Boston offered it to Cody Ross. It sounds totally absurd, but the team has a long history of offering arbitration even under the old CBA rules to people who should have accepted. Some did, some did not. Lopez, Graffino, Varitek.
Ross probably would accept and it would be a 3-4mAAV overpay at 1 year, but give them the chance to get a comp pick and better standing to negotiate with him if they truly want him back.
This could be a really intelligent move by Boston considering how much 2013 payroll space they have.
Assuming he accepts- he’s either a fairly decent RF option (with Ryan Sweeney spelling him sometimes against RHP, assuming Sweeney’s tendered this offseason) without having to commit to him beyond 2013 or a deadline trade chip (eat the salary if need be) if the Sox fall out of contention.
Wouldn’t break my heart either. Ross is one of the guys have been wanting Boston to get since before he left the Marlins because of his swing, not to mention the payroll flexability you mentioned.
Also have a feeling there is a stronger chance Ellsbury is moved if Ross returns. That way they have 1 stable veteran in the OF with several others capable of playing the position, even if the refuse to tender Sweeney.
Can Mo Rivera be offered? Could be a way to avoid a big problem with negotiations
I’d guess they don’t want to pay him that much. They are probably thinking somewhere closer to 10, or less.
Rivera has option “B”.. It’s called.. Pay me what I want, or I’ll retire and 10m isn’t even close to the 15m he was making before.
Mo made 15 mil to throw 8 innings last year. He’ll be 43, coming off a major injury, and hasn’t pitched in a year. Love Mo but if he has a demand like 15 mil again I’d let him walk.
the injury was to his leg.
and contracts are insured, so how much he made last year is irrelevant to his next contract
the ‘he’s 43!!!!1’ argument doesn’t work on moe.. when he was 41 he allowed 13 ER’s the entire year, striking out 60 and walking just 8 in 61 innings.
he just can’t be compared to anyone else.
I know where the injury was. Any injury that takes you out for the entire season is serious. He is 42, will be 43. Despite how awesome he has been, he is human. Even Jeter got a decrease in pay and he wasn’t as old.
Some relievers get better with age.. Look up another reliever by the name of Hoyte Wilhelm and what he did from the ages of 42-46 and then say NY possibly shouldn’t give in and pay the man, or let him retire as Rivera has already hinted if they don’t.
Some (like Wilhelm) pitch until they are 50.
Wilhelm threw a knuckleball…
Sure did and probably the best one ever, but he threw tons of innings until he was beyond 50 and his knuckler wasn’t a slow floater like the Kniekro’s and Wake’s either, but had a tad on it.
Point is.. Some guys can last that long and Rivera is pretty much a 1 pitch pitcher as well.. Batter’s know they are getting a cutter.. Facing Wilhelm they knew they were getting the knuckler.
Rivera should have several more years left, no reason not to think so and even if you didn’t like Wilhelm as comparison I can point to Ryan,
“Despite how awesome he has been, he is human.”
That’s the thing, though. He really isn’t.
Still think the O’s should trade for Haren
Sign Hamilton and Swisher.
Get Rid of Reynolds.
Can’t wait to see what happens.
PS If I am the Red Sox, I would give Ortiz the “Heave Ho”, let him test the market.
Also, I am curious what Pagan will get from the Giants or from the open market.
Yeahhhh that’s probably not going to be how their offseason turns out.
So will cheap stake Angelos spend now that his team has made the playoffs?
I don’t like Angelos either, but he’s not a cheap steak.
Put the PS3 controller down… open your main door… take a deep breath… walk around your neighborhood… and Re-Think what you just wrote.
I know the World Series just ended, but when do you think the signings predictions will be up? It’s always one of my favorite posts.
Probably soon. This offseason is scheduled to move faster than years past. At least it seems that way. Gotta think November starts this week, and that means December and the winter meetings are right around the corner.
Free agency starts on Friday, so I’d say really soon.
Other then Hamilton and Ortiz really I do not see anyone I’d think would be worth that type of money. Of course if you go by the 1 Win = $4.5 mil then anyone around a 3 WAR is a good deal. I like Haren. But if they decline his option then offering just makes no sense. No closer is worth $13+ unless he is Rivera and he was hurt last year. Starters have to be solid for years to make sense. Will a team be willing to give up a draft pick plus $12+ on multiple years for any of the other guys?
You don’t think Kimbrel is worthy of $13mm+?
If you pay your closer 13 million, who else would you put on field?
Every year 1/3rd of the teams change closers at least once a season. Look at how up and down guys can be. Look at guys like Gagne, F.Rodriguez, F.Cordero, Koch, Fuentes, Valverde etc… Lights out one year and pretty hittable soon after.
Soriano is a no brainer. You give him the qual offer and if he surprises you and accepts, then you just trade him. *Someone* will pay 13.3 mil because it’s only a one year deal, the best kind of deal there is.
Soriano is a no brainer. If he surprises you and accepts, just trade him. Someone will pay 13.3 because it’s only a one year contract, the best kind of contract there is.
Can’t see why Jackson would get $13.3M. If you have Zimmermann, Gonzalez, and Strasburg, why would you pay your 4th starter (and that’s what he gives you – 3.80 ERA, 195 IP, 2.0-2.5 WAR pitcher) borderline ace money? Use the money to lock up LaRoche. I understand Jackson is probably better than his obvious numbers show (lower FIP than ERA last three years) and he’s a guaranteed solid pitcher with little injury history, but he deserves 4 years and a lower AAV to me. I’m not an expert on the Nationals so if someone could shed light on what type of commitments they have for 2013 that’d be great.
Werth and Zimmerman, and possibly LaRoche if he resigns, should be the only players making double digits. They will have some guys get big paydays in arbitration (Clippard, Zimmermann, Desmond) but they’ll offset some of that by non-tendering Lannan and Flores.
Really it depends on what happens with their arbitration case with MASN. Can they offer Jackson that? Yes. DC’s market is large enough to support a higher payroll so it’s not like they can’t spend money. But I doubt they will.
I don’t consider 13.3 borderline ace money. 20-25 is ace money. I’d say 16-18 is borderline ace money. A la CJ Wilson. 13.3 is closer to #3 money, and thats what Jackson’s numbers are. For the Nats it may be too much, but he won’t accept it. He’s going to try to get that multi year deal this year
Also – the qualifying offer makes sense for both Pagan and SF. It might be a bit extreme but he’s the type of guy who should continue to see high BABIP, lots of doubles, triples, and steals, and decent defense (although numbers show it’s very inconsistent). Still, he’s at least a 2.5 WAR player on a bad year and possibly a 4-5 WAR player. I didn’t like Pagan on the surface but he looks better and better the more you look into him.
First thing is….Doesn’t the Nationals have a $10 mil option for LaRoche?? If so why wouldn’t they just pick that up??
Second it would make absolutely no sense for the Angels to buy out Haren’s option then offer him a qualifying offer hoping that he doesn’t take it…
The only other player that wont be offered for sure is Hunter..I don’t think Napoli or Upton will be offered either…TB doesn’t have the money to throw around in case Upton decides to accept it…Yes they can trade him obviously if he does, but will they take that chance
It is a mutual option which ALR will decline to look for a multi-year deal.