The Padres' new ownership group has publicly stated its intention to retain quality players who want to stay in San Diego. Chase Headley has emerged as the kind of star player the Padres might look to sign long-term following a breakout season in which he hit 31 home runs. According to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the ownership group led by Ron Fowler and the Seidler/O’Malley families seems to want to sign Headley long term.
However, some Padres executives believe now is the time to trade Headley, Center reports. GM Josh Byrnes could name his price for Headley, and replace him with Jedd Gyorko. It doesn't seem likely that the Padres will trade Headley, who's arbitration eligible for the third time this coming offseason. The 28-year-old earned $3.5MM in 2012 and could earn more than $7MM in 2013. Headley, who’s under team control through 2014, surfaced in numerous trade rumors leading up to this past season’s non-waiver trade deadline.
In all likely-hood, it is too late to extend Headley–well at least to a team-friendly deal. If they can extend him as a player who hits 20 home runs instead of 30, then it would behoove them to try and get a deal done; however, I would think that his agents would seek the latter–in which case they may be better served waiting a bit longer to make sure that he is able to replicate his 2012 performance.
Otherwise, I agree, this is the IDEAL time to trade him. Power hitting, third-basemen with a few years of team control are hard to find and in HIGH demand. If you trade him now, you will get compensation for a 30 home run guy, although he isn’t guaranteed to be that.
You just said it. Guys like him are hard to find. Wouldn’t you want to lock someone like that up long term? Especially if he is a home grown talent that your fan base already likes and pays money to see? The problem is that the padres are…well, the padres. Until new ownership shows that they want to spend money unlike the old ownership, they will still be viewed as a small market team that lacks big name super stars (Headley is not a super star even if he is their best player) and if they want to change that culture, they might look to sign a NAME instead of keeping someone with numbers like Headley.
Headley is by FAR, the best deal in the MLB. Even if the padres think he is at his peak selling point right now, he is STILL undervalued because of his position/age/numbers/contract.
I like Gyorko, but I think it’s fair to point out that most of his big time production in the minors happened at A+ and AAA, and that means the California League and Pacific Coast League, respectively.
He’s got a .786 OPS at AA.
The OPS at AA is a little misleading. I’ll explain. When he first debuted there in 2011 it was towards the end of the year. He started off slow, but came on strong around the mid-point of his short stay. In 2012 it was much of the same except this time the season didn’t end as he was getting hot, he got promoted in either case the numbers, splits if you will, suggest his numbers were on the upswing. You could look at minorleague central or first inning websites to see those numbers. If you want to have some real fun, compare how fellow 2nd round pick’s, Headley & Gyroko faired at Lake Elsinore.
The Padres are in a tough position. Would be hard for the new owners to cash Headley in right now, which very well could prove to be the right decision, if Gyorko ends up being a similar hitter making less in 6 years what an extension would likely pay Headley in years 3 and beyond alone.
That’s probably the type of OPS we should expect from him considering he’s out west and at Petco.
They should have extended him and traded Quentin/Street.
I’m sure they can get a boatload for him in the offseason but it’s better build around a healthy 3B who can do everything than an extremely injury prone right fielder.
WIth the new ownership group they could still extend Headley. There’s talk of making a splash and retaining local talent. Why not start here?
Because Healey has gotten way overrated an this season will put his value unreasonably high.
Way overrated? What has he done to not back it up? He had a tremendous season.
If you sign him, you are of course taking a chance that 2012 was his high water mark. But if you trade him, you tell the fan base that the new owners are no more willing than the old to pony up for talent. So you punt – go to arbitration, then see where you are at the 2013 trade deadline.
He had a fantastic season, but he has been pretty average in his 4 other full seasons. Trade value of what the Padres want is understandably extremely high. They are setting his price as a cornerstone player, but he has done nothing it his 4 other seasons to back that up, he is also 28 so he is not incredibly young. Sure if they could acquire him cheap, but the padres are probably asking for 3-4 top prospects, and that is crazy because there is a large chance he returns back to normal. It’s also interesting that his ld/fb/gb stats actually shifted towards more groundballs. History tends to show that alot of players that have career years like this at this age and after 5 full seasons tend to revert back to what they used to be. I’m not saying he can’t do it, I just wouldn’t want my team to pay the price based on his season this year, because there is a huge chance he fails to ever repeat it again.
I wouldnt want my team to pay that price either but I dont think he is overrated. If any rates him based on his most recent season or any player for that matter then that is a mistake. The Padres want a lot for him because they are just trying to get someone to bite and give them 3-4 prospects.
as a fan of baseball i hope he stays with the padres. As a red sox fan i hope he becomes availble.
The red sox have middlebrooks. He was a huge factor in them deciding to trade youk….why would they give up a kings ransom for another 3b they don’t need.
he can play other positions, he is young, and the sox could then trade middlebrooks for pitching or someone like justin upton perhaps.
Boston has Garin Cecchini a couple years away and *probably* will move Xander Bogaerts to 3b, who is only around 1Y away. No need to trade anything for a position they are set at both presently, as well as in the future.
Okay let me try to understand this: they will trade like 2-3 good prospects for a 28 year old 3b who is coming off a career year and about to get paid lots of money. Meanwhile they have Middlebrooks who is earning a rookie salary and has shown he is major league ready (which contributed to them trading youk). Then they will trade Middlebrooks for Upton who had an off year.
middlebrooks had an unsustainably good year and upton had an off one. so yes you have that part right: buy low and sell high
the trading for headley part…no
Unsustainable? Please don’t try to give me “advanced” metrics attempting to prove that his success was due to luck. There is no stat that can account for how a player actually develops. Look at Mike Trout’s first year…he batted .220 in 123 at bats (7 short of being in consideration for rookie of the year in 2011). Middlebrooks was a rookie this year if he didnt get injured he could have been one of the top candidates for rookie the year. Buy low on a guy who has two pretty good years in 6 years and sell high on Middlebrooks who looks like he can be a great thirdbaseman?
you don’t get to use scare quotes and talk down statistics until you understand what they are
but yes, great point. let’s ignore the data and just look at mike trout’s historical, completely unprecedented (even among top overall prospects) performance as a 19 and 20 year old. that should tell us what to expect from a 24 year old fringe top 50 prospect who is inferior in every single way
just don’t give me “advanced stats”, maaaan. that stuff makes no sense
no advanced stats here:
player A at age 21: .770 OPS in A+ ball
player B at age 21: .900 OPS in MLB
player A at age 23: .835 OPS in MLB (half season)
player B at age 23: .900 OPS in MLB (full season)
such a tough decision
You have missed my point -__- I understand the statistics but I’m sick of people using them as if they are perfect indicators of anything. Most of the formulas in the advanced statistics assume one thing or another. Some players develop slower than others…some players develop fast and then hit a plateau. I dont see how you can call a players production unsustainable based on 260 at bats in the majors. The point about Trout was that he was awful in his first 123 at bats in the majors. So let’s wait and see what Middlebrooks can do with a full healthy season. At this point I would not trade him for Upton.
wow
wow
If I am the Padres, I sell. Never pay for a career year.
Totally. HRs and Ks are up, but BA is about the same. To me, that’s not a sign that he’s finally figured it out. It’s a sign he was swinging harder in a contract year, and it paid off. He is talented, but he’s going to ask for more than he’s worth.
Maybe he figured out he could hit more home runs if took more of a grip it and rip it approach. He posted the best walk rate of his career, too.
HR’s and Ks are up because he completley changed his approach on inside pitches, look at the loft in his swing on the inner part of plate this year compared to rest of his career
Byrnes and the new ownership are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Do you pay a guy coming off a career year that smashed anything he had done in the past and keep your fan base happy or do you trade him to another team banking on this career year for a boat load, and I mean boat load, of prospects and alienate your fan base again after promising you’d start keeping players such as Headley? As a Padre fan, I think you at least have to see what is being offered for him this off season.
I’m sure everyone of us who comment on this site have dreamed about being a Major League GM, but it’s scenarios like this that make me double think that dream.
If you trade him it has to be for at least Latos’s value deal. Otherwise got to extend him to something like 5/75 which I think would be realistic.
I totally agree. I assume you’re a Padre fan, would you trade him if you could get a “Latos deal” collection of players in return? Headley has also said that he, “wants to be a Padre”, so maybe he would give them a bit of a discount, seeing as they stuck by him. That of course is in a perfect world, which this is not.
A Latos type deal isn’t enough. The pads have the deepest system so they need quality not quantity. The pads need an unreal offer like what they were trying to get from the Braves for Peavy: Hanson, Heyward, Locke, etc.
I personally don’t think the Latos deal was quantity over quality. Grandal could be a top 5 hitting catcher as early as next year and Alonso had a very good rookie season room to grow power wise. Volquez is a very good number 3 starter and Boxberger could be 7 or 8 inning guy next year.
Any way you look at it the Padres will need to get a haul for Headley. It will be a very interesting offseason for the Padres.
It was a quantity of quality trade because all 4 are valuable but the team needs more quality; I was trying to say, pads need 2-3 Grandal types if they’re going to trade Headley. The team doesn’t need bullpen help, anymore back-end starters, or potential regulars, the team needs Ace pitchers and superstar hitters. The pads should only go after players that fit those molds. They don’t need to sign someone like Blanton when they can use Cashner, Kelly, or Bass. If they’re serious about improving the SP then they need a Grienke/Haren upside type. I’d rather they break the bank on Grienke and let Cashner and Kelly duke it out for the 4th spot (Stullts is 5ths) than signing Annibal Sanchez and Blanton/Jackson to multiple year deals.
Bringing in middle of the road pitchers on multiple year deals is a bad idea when you have Erlin, Roach, Sampson, Luebke, Kelly, Cashner, Wieland, and Oramas all ready within 2 years.
Okay, now I get what you were trying to say. The way originally put it, I thought you were down on the Latos deal from the Padres side of things. And yes I agree, if the Paders are going to trade Headley it had better be for a landslide of prospects with very high ceilings and a very could shot at reaching those ceilings.
I think Dan Haren should be at the top of Byrnes’ list this off season. A season, or two, at Petco would more than likely send his stock through the roof, resulting in a big payday. By mid-season when Luebke is back throwing darts, the Padres could use one of Richard, Volquez or Stults as trade bait to help out the offense if needed and still leave you with a very good rotation of Haren, Luebke, two of the three mentioned above and one of Cashner, Kelly or Erlin.
Easy. 3B- Headley, 2B- Gyorko. The only players I think they should trade right now are Richard and maybe Venable. Then look at free agency for a right fielder and starting pitching.
Not sure why every Padre fan and their mother wants a new setup in RF. Would you be surprised to learn that the Padres got 1 more xbh from their RF’s then any other position (including 3b)? At 2.5-3m in 2013… Venable is a GREAT fit particularly when paired with Denorfia. As it is now, they’re getting very good production from the position with minimal money tied up in the players. With Liriano in the wings in a year or two, I think the Padres have a great thing going with Venorfia. Good luck getting better production on the FA market, and that’s ignoring the silly money it would take to bring in a Swisher or B.J. Upton or whomever one might have in mind.
You Red Sox fans down the page that think Headley will be traded to Boston are full of yourselves.
Hoyer gave you Adrian and you basically ran him out of town.
Since Boston has NOTHING the Padres want or need, Don’t expect to see Chase doing any house-hunting in New England anytime soon.
The Padres are NOT a farm club of the Red Sox.
As a Padre fan, I hope the Padres are not going to be anyones farm team anymore. This new ownership group has talked a good game, now they have to show they mean business. It would be nice if the fans showed up a little more too, to show the new owners that they will support the team.
They should extend Headley and put Gyroko at 2B, Gyroko looked pretty good at 2B in limited action.
They should extend Headley and put Gyroko at 2B, he was good there in AA/AAA this season in limited action. Foresythe and Cabrera can battle for AB’s at SS, Amarista can be a super UT player.