The Mets are expected to start negotiations with David Wright by making an offer for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100MM, people familiar with the team's thinking told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Mets are also expected to give negotiations at least most of October before even considering a deal for the star third baseman.
Heyman was told that General Manager Sandy Alderson & Co. hope to make Wright a Met "for life." A deal could include team options toward the end of the pact with the hope that the 29-year-old stays productive into his late 30s. Wright has opted to remain with the embattled ACES agency but Heyman writes that there's no indication that they have pressed the contract talks because of the timing of the probe into their practices.
While Wright is likely seeking a $100MM+ deal, a veteran agent told Mike Puma of the New York Post that R.A. Dickey is probably eyeing Oliver Perez-type money, which would be $36MM over three years. However, Heyman writes that the Mets don't want to go beyond two years for Dickey as the Mets have concerns that his high-velocity for a knuckleballer will hurt his longevity. A rival GM sees the soon-to-be 38-year-old as being worth $15MM, but the Mets aren't believed to be thinking of a deal in that ballpark.
I am actually kind of curious to see what the Mets could get on the trade market for Dickey. Lets say he wins the Cy Young this year, what realistically do you think teams would offer the Mets for him? Even if he doesn’t win it, I am curious to hear names. What to me is interesting about Dickey is that while 2012 was obviously a career year, he has been an exceptionally good pitcher since 2010. While I don’t see him doing what he did this year, there is no indication he isn’t going to be a very solid pitcher next year, where ever he pitches.
A team with a warm climate (which helps with the grip of the knuckleball) and fairly pitching friendly park, would be ideal. I say Miami SHOULD make an offer. Dickey’s exactly the type of pitcher that would have a field day in Miami. Atlanta is another option, a team who could use a good veteran while their great arms comes up through the farm system.
Houston is a better choice. Too Humid in Miami and he sucked in Atlanta this year.
Does the knuckleball go better in dry air? Didn’t know that. Then Houston or San Diego would be the two obvious choices….
Not sure what they get but I’d think his age and impending free agency would keep the return down.
Not if the team getting him negotiates a new deal with him right away which wouldn’t be out of the question at all really. I think he’d net atleast 2 top prospects or a 2 MLB ready players or something to that degree.
I don’t think so. Maybe two mid level. I think that would be a good turnout for the Mets.
Unless it is a 4-5 yr 100 mil I dont see Wright accepting this. He could get much more on the FA market next year.
I think an AAV of $20m is a competitive bid. The main difference on.the open market is the guaranteed years. Of course, if Wright accepts a 5yr/$100m deal, then it will be seen as a slight discount.
Right, 20 AAv is a competitive bid, which would be 4-5 years.
I think Wright will take it–he really tailed off the 2nd half of the season and didn’t hit well in 2010 and for most of 2011 he was only average. If he balks at the deal and then has a poor 2012 he will not even get that. It’s better for him to take something like 6 years at $112 million and stay with a team he’s comfortable with than to risk a bad year and never see the years or money.
As a Braves fan, David Wright is the only player on the Mets I fear. He is their only guy that is, well, good.Honestly, they only have Wright and spare parts.
If he doesn’t accept a 6 year $100 million deal, they should trade him. He could bring back 3-4 good pieces. They have so many holes to fill, they should use their only valuable players to fill them via trade.
Also, they should absolutely trade R.A. Dickey too.
Ike Davis says hello.
A 1.5 WAR says hello.
The truth hurts.
Ike’s second half says hello. Chase Headley was the only NL player who hit more HRs in the second half than Ike did.
Here’s the thing. David Wright is an icon and a superstar. With the Mets. But he’s a good player in every other club. Nothing else. That’s the hard truth for all you Mets/Wright fans. There are at least 10 3rd basemen that are better than Wright.
Like I said, I am no Mets fan, but why don’t you go on Fangraphs and rank 3B by WAR…Wright is #1.
there is no way there are 10 3B better than Wright, and Im not a Mets fan
Yeah he’s probably somewhere in the 4-6 range.
Shocking. Wright led the MLB in WAR this year for 3B. More than Miguel Cabrera even. You either have a Mets bias or just have atrocious evaluation criteria.
Pretty much nailed it on the head right here.
Check how the WAR was done though. Wright got a lot from a very good fielding score (he beat Adrian Beltre by a mile in that category!).
Let’s be realistic, Wright isn’t a bad fielding 3rd baseman, but he sure isn’t one of the top three.
The WAR is a good tool, but you can’t just look at it and say: “Hey, this guy is ranked higher than this guy so he must be better”.
The WAR isn’t precise enough. Now, when you have a guy like Trout, who has a ridiculously high WAR, it’s a good indicator that he may have the MVP season. But you still need to look at his actual game. And when you do, yes, it confirms that he’s the MVP.
With Wright you got the indicator from the WAR that he’s the best 3rd baseman. But you just need to watch him play a little, and his powerless hitting will tell you more than anything that this guy isn’t the best guy around. Wright hits for average, and is a solid defender.
But that’s about it.
He’s John Olerud incarnated. Just needs a helmet in the field to complete the picture.
This is soooo right. I am a Mets fan and I do like Wright. But he doesn’t really hit for a lot of power, nothing over $100 makes sense for the Mets. Hes above average but not a superstar.
Spoken like a true enemy of the Mets.
And the Braves should trade Medlen and Kimbrall and Prado because they are short a third baseman and will need a centerfielder as well.
One big difference – The Braves have multiple good/great players, the Mets have one.
This is me speaking from a logical perspective, not from the Braves fan perspective.
Wright is a valuable player, he could bring back a few good pieces for the Mets, they have multiple needs, they need to fill as many of them as quickly as possible to become relevant again. Trading Wright for 3-4 players who could be productive MLB players would be the wise move for the whole of the organization.
Would think a starting point would be 7/140.
An AAV of $20m is within reach, but not for 7 years. Even on a thin FA market for 3B, there is no way anyone would offer Wright a 7yr deal.
3b market is slim, only difference. Finding a team(s) to get involved could be an issue with so many deep pocketed teams probably not spending.
LAD could be an interesting point of landing. Beckett will be off of the books after 2014 as will Hanley Ramirez.
Why not the same contract Reyes got with the Marlins 6 yr @ 106? That would seem fair to me.
That’s what i’m thinking as well seems pretty perfect to me and he’s way more worth it then Reyes was.
8 yr 100 mil. Thats fair and keeps him in New York. For Wright it’s the total money which is important, for Mets it’s the total years. So with a longer contract, Wright gets his money, and Mets gets their franchise player.
this makes absolutely no sense. Wright could easily get 5 years $100m on the open market. Why would he want to play for 8 years at that same price? Even if he signs a 5 year deal he could still be set up for a decent payday even with natural decline.
I believe he wants to be in New York. And Yankees is taken, baby. And 100 mil should be enough for him. We’ll see who’s right. If you’re right, I’ll apologize, and if I’m right, you will have to say I’m the best of the bestest. Cool?
He might get $100M or close to it, but it won’t be for 8 years. It would be for between 4 and 6.
You mean 5 years?
Sure thats completely fair for the Mets, but not even close to fair for Wright. Don’t you think he could fetch far more than $12.5MM/year on the open market?
Sure. My point is basically this. Let’s say Mets would offer him 4-5 years for 100 mil. The money is gonna be the same, whether he plays 5 years or 8 years. But sure, if Wright wants to maximize, he could get one deal now for 4 years and 80 mil, and then perhaps 4 years and 30-36. I don’t know the guy.
Is it really that important when money gets up into those levels though?
It was just my speculation bro.
Players are more greedy than that. Even if they give the team a discount, it usually is no more than 15% of what the player is worth. For example, if a player is worth $20m AAV, then usually the most discount he will take is $3m (for a discounted AAV of $17m). If you think about it, $3m discount per year for 7 years, adds up to $21m…
On the free agent market, teams will always overpay for the # of years as well …
Thanks for explaining this. Wasn’t fully aware of the whole “discount” maths.
Wilpon’s been bad mouthing Wright, so he’s got really no reason to be extra nice to them, it’s more about whether he likes the NY scene. Which I think he really does.
Then again, what other teams do you guys see being competitive for Wright down the stretch?
almost everyone. Very few teams have a solid, long term 3B
Players take discounts prior to free agency because of economics. They are getting guaranteed money before they are entitled to free agency. There is consideration on both sides: the team is guaranteeing the player money they wouldn’t have had to commit to at that time, and the player is giving up his right to seek a more lucrative deal when he would have normally been able to. Both sides are looking to mitigate risk.
think of it this way: if he plays for 8 years at 100m instead of what market value is (lets say 20M/yr), you are saying he will give up 60 million!!!
That’s not how it works. Why would he take $100M to play for 8 years when he could have $160M to play that same 8 years? Why would he give up the $60M?
It would have to be $100MM+ to put up with that side show in Queens.
Zimmerman got a 6 yr/$100M contract. Simply put, Wright should fire his agent if he can’t beat that contract.
Please. Beltre, a much better player, got 16 mil a year. Tell me again why you think Wright deserves more?
I made a statement, no where did I say Wright deserved more. The simple truth is the salary a player can negotiate for is not a formula of stats. It’s about multiple things including the fact that Wright is the only potentially good 3rd baseman in the FA market for the next couple of years. If Wright’s agent can’t beat out Zimmerman’s contract then he’s just not doing his job.
Sorry, you’re right. I was wrong.
I’d also urge you to compare Beltre’s track record coming into that contract compared to Wright’s.
Beltre’s career slash line prior to that contract was .275/.328/.462, averaging 21 home runs, 78 RBI, and 9 stolen bases per season.
Wright’s career slash line is currently .301/.381/.506, averaging 23 home runs, 91 RBI, and 18 steals.
Do these numbers mean David Wright is a better player than Adrian Beltre? Of course not. Do they mean he can net a bigger contract than Beltre did in 2010? Yup.
You forgot to mention that Beltre started out his career more than two years younger than Wright. If you compare their careers from their 25 year old season, Beltre has a 5.4 WAR and Wright has a 4.1 WAR average per season. Beltre’s ages 25-29 WAR average is 5.2, so he actually increased it slightly when he went to Boston (7.8 WAR their in his age 31 season).
My point is, WAR is an indicator of the quality of a player, and the WAR indicates that Beltre at least has been slightly better at similar stages of his career than Wright. And what we know from watching Beltre in Boston, and the horrible ballpark in Safeco, he’s been at a different level than Wright.
Not just better. But even on an entirely different level.
Beltre has been in the majors since 1998. Think about that. Wright’s been in the majors for 8 years.
You can’t really say Beltre is better than Wright. They’re entirely different types of players with different skillsets, different strengths and weaknesses. Wright is more of a high average, high OBP player with steals. They are both excellent players. Also, Beltre’s deal might have been high on a per year basis but it was relatively short (like 4 years I believe)
It was for six years 80 million. Six years isn’t short in my book.
OK granted it wasn’t 4 yrs, but $80M<$100M
Yeah. The annual value for Beltre is 16 mil. I don’t think there’s any reason that Wright would get more.
Some say that Wright is younger, when he’s going to sign this contract.
However, Beltre was coming off his age 31 season with Boston, where he had a comeback year and a 7.4 WAR, and signed with Texas.
It’s hard to believe Wright, with the lost HR power, will ever amass a 7+ WAR season again.
The last thee years (2010-2012) David Wright’s slashline have been: 285AVG/ .365OBP/.480 SLG/.845OPS And he’s had a 4.5 WAR/162 games (average WAR per season 3.7)
Compare that to Adrian Beltres slashline the last three years:
314AVG/.353OBP/.558SLG/.912OPS
Beltre’s WAR per 162 games during this time span: 7.5 (average WAR per season 6.5)
So anyway you look at it, Beltre rules supreme.
I think we won’t agree on this one. David Wright IS a better player than Beltre. I don’t take WAR very seriously. You can’t average 3 year numbers because
1) David Wright was injured last year
2) Beltre played in a hitter’s park
3) Beltre hit in a much better lineup.
If you put Wright in Texas surrounded by those hitters, believe me, Wright would put up ungodly numbers.
Crunch all the numbers you want, bottom line is he’s a comparable type player that their fan base loves, therefore worth the contract offer.
We can sit here and talk about WAR until we’re blue in the face, but I don’t think for one second that it comes up in major league baseball contract negotiations.
Why are you arbitrarily picking the age of 25 to start comparing them? I could manipulate the numbers too. From age 21-24 Wright’s average WAR was 4.6 and Beltre’s was 2.2. A bigger gap than you are showing from the 25-29 ages of the two players. How about this. From ages 21-29 Wright average WAR is 4.3 and Beltre’s is 3.9. That is over a nine year span. Funny how you use the ballpark that Beltre played in before Boston to explain his lower WAR but failed to mention that Wright has played in a pitcher’s ballpark his entire career.
You’re talking about what happened quite a few years ago. My point was to bring up the fairly recent years, the comparison for the last 3 years seems like a good pick then.
This gives you a look into what the player is at this moment, when he’s developed his tools.
And looking at Wright, he had a few good years back then, especially his age 24 season was tremendous. Something he’s not been close to since.
Beltre on the other hand had a few down years with Seattle, but revived his career totally.
David Wright may be a good guy, be he’s no Beltre.
Beltre played in hitter’s ballparks the last three years. Outside that he had only year in LA where he put up big numbers. If Wright played in those ballparks the last three years his numbers would be similar. I am not arguing Wright is better now but the gap is not what you are making it out to be. FYI Beltre got his contract based off a season in Boston so it is not crazy to think Wright could get the same if not more if he becomes a free agent.
Ryan Zimmerman just turned 28,
5 years /$100 million for Wright and for Dickey 2 years/$15 million w/club option. I would try to trade Bay and Niese and Parnell in trade to Boston for Elsberry to play center.
No…………..
Trade for Ben Revere
Trade for JP Arencibia and Colby Rasmus (Package around Duda)
Resign Hairston
Revere Tejada Murphy Wright Davis Hairston Rasmus Arencibia
I don’t think the Jays would want to trade JPA and Rasmus for someone especially like Duda as the centerpiece. With d’Arnaud’s setback and the fact the Jays do not even know who their starting LFer will be in 2013, it would not be good to have 2 outfield position holes to fill.
Unless the Mets are willing to part with mid-rotation pitching, the Jays aren’t a match.
I’d give up Famila or Mejia for a shot at one of the Jays catchers and others but that’s just one scenario for me really…
Zimmerman, Beltre and Braun, all who could be considered better players than Wright, are earning anywhere between 12-17 million a year. Signing a 6 year 100 million dollar contract, would be appropriate for Wright
Adrian Beltre is better in every aspect than David Wright. And Beltre’s contract is 5 years for 80 million. Which is an average of 16 mil. And nobody is gonna pretend that David Wright is better than Beltre. Good luck with that. He’s not even in the same league. Wright has average and good OBP, which Beltre also has, but Beltre has lots of power. And magical hands.
‘And magical hands’
Absolutely gold.
However, also consider that the demand for 3rd basemen that year. I imagine it was pretty weak because the Rangers technically didn’t need him (they still had Young).
Good point bro! Very good point.
Great analysis bro!
Not even in the same league? Seriously? Sure Beltre is the best defender in the league at 3B and has more power than Wright. But Wright also proved again this year that he an outstanding defender as well. He even was worth 1.2 more WAR than Beltre this year and only 2 total points behind Beltre in wRC+. They are both elite players. You’re coming off as a Ranger homer.
Brother, look into the WAR details. The reason why Wright is ranked higher is because he somehow beats Beltre in the fielding points category. But everybody knows that Beltre is the much better defender, in fact, he’s probably one of the better all time 3rd base defenders.
I think WAR is a great tool generally, but you need to examine it when you’re making comparisons, to see if it’s somehow reasonable.
I think Beltre is a tad underrated, and Wright is the most overrated player in baseball, along with perhaps… Albert Pujols (sorry Albert) and Arod.
The reason is basically, Wright has high average, but he’s got absolutely no power. He’s the very poor man’s version of Joey Votto.
If you are going to compare Beltre vs. Wright, remember that Beltre’s contract was signed for his age 32-36 seasons two offseasons ago. Wright will be in his age 30 season next year.
Good point bro.
The Mets can have AROD for free.
Just for fun, what would you say a fair contract for him today would be? I’d say somwhere around 7 mil He’s still a good masher, not like David Ortiz, but he can field somewhat, which sort of compensates a bit. A-rod is a 20 HR, .250 average and 110 games type of guy in my book.
Arod still got into 122 games this year, and that was with a significant time missed from a broken hand. He can still push his obp to .350, he can still be on a 25 hr pace. He was helped by dhing alot, but that is partly because the yankees have chavez, who can field, and can hit to rest arod. I would think that he would fall into at least $12-13M minimum, especially since just 2 years ago he hit 30 hr, and counting that he is only 67 hr away from ruth. A figure which he could get to within 2-3 years if healthy. There is a massive amount of marketing that a team could potentially get when arod hits 700, then 714, then 715. You gotta believe that it would help a team that has a problem drawing fans. Sometimes it comes down to more than production, but incentives, and things such as bad persona (milton bradley) could make a decent player undesirable.
I dont think hes as valuable a marketing tool as you think. Outside of New York, the unanimous vibe seems to be that people despise him. These playoffs certainly havent helped either 0-18 with 15ks or something like that against righties. A story came out the other day that in game 1 during the 9th inning (I believe it was) he got a ball, wrote a note on it and told the bat boy to throw it to a girl, then the girl wrote her number on it and threw it back. Not sure if I believe the story but it sure doesnt help his marketing value. In addition to that I dont even think there should be hype about him passing any homerun leaders after all he is an admitted steroid user.
MLB found a way to sell memorabilia for Miggy’s Triple crown season. I’m sure they can find a way to get money for Arod.
Why would it be hard to sell anything related to Miggy? Other than the dui last offseason hes been great on and off the field. Arod always comes off as cocky and arrogant which is what most people hate about him. The people that make the most money off of Arod are the media.
What teams would be interested in Dickey, and who would they part with to get him? Just interested to see what his value is outside of the mets bubble.
Mets Bubble? The guy is a CY Young type pitcher.
If the Mets trade him, now is the time as his value is highest. But they need to get an outfielder, a top line prospect and pitcher in return.
Top line prospect? Hes 37, I doubt anyone gives up that much although for the sake of the Mets I would hope they do.
two major factors that aren’t talent related, one for each argument:
1. David Wright is only one year away from FA now. Zimmerman was two years away when he signed his deal.
2. Zimmerman is almost two years younger than Wright. When the 6/100M extension is up for Zimmerman, he will have just turned 35. A six year extension for Wright would put him at 37 the winter his contract expires.
Another look at Zimmerman’s contract: he’s guaranteed $90 from playing baseball, could reach as much as $106M (7/116M total) if option exercised. Other $10M is based on a 5 year personal services contract once he retires.
My guess is Wright gets a bit more guaranteed with a more favorable option (Zimmerman’s $18M option has a $2M buyout). Let’s say 6/110M guaranteed, with an option for a 7th year at $20M and $8M buyout (Potential to be $122M). Probably a PSC will be in there, too, but for less than the $10M Zimmerman has in his, so he’ll also win on the time value of money factor.
I think Wright could get more money on the open market than he could from the Mets and he could play for a contender. I don’t see the Mets contending with or without him.
Wright put up 7.8 fWAR this year, the most out of any third baseman in the majors, despite a subpar second half by his standards. This was mainly due to his BABIP being otherworldly in the first half. Even so, his line drive rate and walk rate were outstanding this year, and he kept his K rate below 20%. 2009 and 2011, his only truly down years, are explained by injuries and a general lack of protection in the lineup. He also regained his defensive form this year as well. He is the best third baseman in the game, a true franchise player. The Mets need to keep him in orange and blue for the rest of his career. There is no excuse for this not to happen, especially because the Mets play in the biggest market in the country. Madoff mess is over with, and a ton of money due to Bay and Santana will be coming off the books by 2014. Get it done.
The Mets don’t believe Dickey is worth a three-year, $36M contract? Plenty of teams will take him at that. They might as well trade him right now.
If the Mets want to tie him David Wright long-term, to me, it would take at least 6 years and $119 to do it or 7 years at $135M. Unlike Jose Reyes, who had injury woes, the Mets cannot let David Wright go, as he has been relatively healthy his entire career.
$100M contracts = higher ticket prices = less tickets sold = Mets fire sale. Baseball is just too damn greedy any more.
Revenue from ticket sales is dwarfed by revenue from TV deals. The Dodgers went for 2 billion due to their TV deal not their ticket sales.
Yeah maybe for 4 years……
I would think that Wrigt and Dickey would test free agency. They both can get more than the Mets are going to offer and play for a contender. Most players if they have their choice want to play for a contender. The Mets will not be a contender until they start spending money on players.