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Archives for September 2012

Olney On Hamilton, Tigers, Posey

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MLB executives don’t question Josh Hamilton’s ability on the field, but they’re hesitant to commit long-term to the outfielder, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. Hamilton figures to ask for $20-25MM per season and executives are wary of guaranteeing that kind of salary to a player with off-field questions, Olney writes. Here’s Olney’s latest on the market for Hamilton, who hits free agency for the first time this offseason:

  • The Rangers have their doubts about how long they want to invest in Hamilton, Olney writes. They’ve done background work on outfielders such as Justin Upton and Jacoby Ellsbury since they realize they could be in the market for an impact outfielder within a few months.
  • The Dodgers had no intention of bidding for Hamilton even before they acquired Carl Crawford. The Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Braves, Nationals and Orioles don’t seem like logical destinations for Hamilton, Olney writes.
  • One GM said the Tigers could surprise rival teams and enter the bidding for Hamilton. Owner Mike Ilitch has a history of spending aggressively on free agents such as Prince Fielder and Magglio Ordonez.
  • The Giants could have interest in Hamilton, but Olney suggests it’d probably be conservative. The Giants will make an effort to sign Buster Posey long-term, according to Olney. Mark Polishuk recently previewed a possible extension for the San Francisco catcher.

Poll: Should B.J. Upton Get A Qualifying Offer?

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B.J. Upton is in line for a multiyear contract when he hits free agency this winter, and it's not easy to envision a return to Tampa Bay. The Rays habitually operate with one of the game's lowest payrolls, which means they don’t do much of their spending on the top free agents available. 

Upton, who earns $7MM this year, will obtain a raise on his next contract. Recent estimates from general managers range from $27MM over three years to $70MM over five years, according to Jerry Crasnick. If that's Upton's market value, it's hard to see the Rays winning the bidding. After all, their best-paid player, James Shields, earns a base salary of $7.5MM in 2012.

But executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman can still extend Upton a qualifying offer. Unless the Rays make Upton a qualifying offer they won’t be eligible to obtain draft pick compensation for their longtime center fielder. If they do make him an offer, he’d either accept the one-year contract or the Rays would get a draft pick in 2013. 

While $13MM-plus — the value of a qualifying offer — is likely more than a small-market team would like to spend on Upton, he’d have trade value at that salary. The Rays, who once acquired Rafael Soriano after he unexpectedly accepted arbitration, could make a similar deal involving Upton. 

From Upton’s standpoint, the open market might be preferable to a one-year qualifying offer. He figures to get multiyear contract offers, even if he’s tied to draft pick compensation in a market flush with strong alternatives in center field. So the most likely scenario has Upton declining the qualifying offer and setting his former team up for draft pick compensation. It’s a risk, but one the Rays might be willing to take. What should they do?

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeremy Guthrie

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Before Jeremy Guthrie was traded to the Royals, he was in the midst of a career-worst season and appeared to be headed for a minor league contract in free agency. Since the Royals acquired Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez on July 20th, the right-hander has pitched effectively, returning to his career norms. The turnaround should assure him of a guaranteed contract as a free agent this offseason and a multiyear deal remains possible.

Jeremy Guthrie - Royals (PW)

Coors Field was not a particularly welcoming home to Guthrie this year. Opponents posted a Bonds-esque .368/.415/.720 batting line against him in Denver’s thin air. Overall, Guthrie posted a 6.35 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 90 2/3 innings for the Rockies. He allowed 12 hits and two home runs per nine innings. Not surprisingly, he lost his rotation spot and, eventually, his place on the team.

Credit Royals general manager Dayton Moore for looking past those numbers. Since Guthrie has joined the Royals he has a 3.13 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 72 innings over the course of 11 starts. He’s generating more swings and misses with Kansas City (7.7% swinging strike rate) and averaging 93mph with his fastball.

Guthrie should appeal to the Royals when he hits free agency this offseason, as Kansas City could use more starting pitching. Moore has said that the club will "probably" wait until after the season to explore contract talks with Guthrie

Guthrie’s representatives at CAA Sports figure to look for a multiyear contract in free agency and it sounds as though some longtime Royals observers aren’t opposed to the possibility. Rany Jazayerli has suggested a two year, $15MM contract could work for both sides. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star has suggested a two year, $18MM contract with a club option. 

A multiyear deal is certainly possible for the 33-year-old Guthrie. But in some ways he reminds me of Joe Saunders, who was selected ten spots before Guthrie in the first round of the 2002 draft. Both are innings eaters who limit walks, don’t induce many strikeouts and allow lots of hits. The combination generally leads to substantial salaries through arbitration, but it doesn’t do as well in free agency. Saunders, for example, signed a one-year, $6MM contract with Arizona last offseason. I expect Guthrie to sign a contract in that range following his up and down 2012 campaign.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Poll: How Will The AL Wild Card Race Unfold?

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With 16 games remaining on the regular season schedule, the race for the two American League Wild Card spots continues to captivate the attention of baseball fans across the country. The Athletics enter the home stretch as the favorites to secure the first Wild Card after taking two out of three from the Orioles at home. Even with this weekend's setback against Oakland, Baltimore remains in the mix to overtake the A's as it currently occupies the second Wild Card with the Angels lurking two and a half games behind.

Beyond the two top contenders, three teams (excluding current division leaders in New York, Chicago and Texas) have a healthy chance of sneaking into the playoffs by staking a claim to one of the Wild Card berths with a strong finish. The Rays, four games behind the Orioles for the second spot, are among the teams hoping to extend their season well into October and will rely on their talented young pitching staff to get there. Just behind Tampa Bay at four and a half games behind Baltimore, the Tigers may be more likely to catch the White Sox for the division title as only two games separate the teams.

Quick Hits: A’s, Pirates, Hurdle, Soriano

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Sunday afternoon linkage..

  • There have been indications that commissioner Bud Selig might rule on the A's move to San Jose by the end of the year, but he may be considering a ruling that could challenge both the A's and Giants to fulfill certain criteria, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  "I think there will be an effort to be Solomonesque," said someone who has spoken with Selig. "This is not a 'yes or no' sort of thing."
  • Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington says that manager Clint Hurdle's job is not in jeopardy despite the club's recent slide, according to Rob Biertempfel and Karen Price of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review. 
  • Paul Swydan of Fangraphs believes that if Rafael Soriano opts out of his deal with the Yankees in search of a multi-year deal with an average value of $14MM per year, either he'll be disappointed or the team that signs him will be.  Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opined that Soriano would be making a mistake if he cut the cord on his three-year, $35MM contract in search of a better deal.
  • The Nationals don't plan on celebrating when they officially clinch a playoff spot as the team has goals within reach more worthy of a champagne bottle, writes Amanda Comak of The Washington Times. 
  • Stephen Strasburg's season isn't completely over as he's staying involved with the team by playing catch and participating in a rehab program crafted by the Nationals, says Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post. Pitching coach Steve McCatty says the young ace has handled the transition better than outsiders may perceive. “I don’t think he’s ready for a straitjacket, if that’s what you’re getting at,” McCatty said. “… Stephen is doing fine. He’s handling it.”

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

Week In Review: 9/9/12 – 9/15/12

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With the start of the playoffs just weeks away, let's take a break in the action to catch up on the week that was here at MLBTR…

  • The Dodgers and GM Ned Colletti agreed to a contract extension. The team has gone 586-530 under his watch, thrice winning the NL West and never winning fewer than 80 games in a season.
  • The Orioles released right-handed reliever Kevin Gregg. They had designated Gregg and Ryan Adams for assignment earlier in the week to create space on the 40-man roster.
  • Right-hander Francisco Cordero finds himself in search of a new home after being released by the Astros. Houston acquired Cordero as part of a 10-player trade with the Blue Jays that also netted them Ben Francisco and five minor leaguers.
  • The Pirates designated right-hander Evan Meek for assignment. Meek, a 2010 All-Star, has been in the Pittsburgh organization since the Pirates selected him in the 2007 Rule 5 draft.
  • The Brewers claimed left-hander Miguel De Los Santos off waivers from the Rangers. The 24-year-old posted a 5.22 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in 58 2/3 innings at Double-A Frisco this year covering 22 relief appearances and four starts.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Daniel Seco asked MLBTR readers what has been the most unlikely storyline in 2012. Nearly 40% of you chose the Orioles being in the thick of a pennant race. 
  • Mike Axisa asked MLBTR readers who will win the second NL Wild Card. Over 32% of you believe the Cardinals will hang on to defend their World Series title.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith opined the Tigers will likely exercise their $6MM club option and keep Jhonny Peralta in Detroit for another year.
  • Ben listed the top ten free agent infielders ranked by FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement.
  • Ben also calculated that Brewers' catcher Jonathan Lucroy will miss the projected cutoff for super two status by just three days.
  • MLBTR confirmed the Indians' Travis Hafner obtained ten and five rights when he reached ten years of service time this past Thursday.
  • It was a busy week on the Free Agent Stock Watch. Ben explained Blue Jays' right-hander Carlos Villanueva could have value as a starter in this winter's free agent market.
  • Mike is much more bullish on the Giants' Marco Scutaro, as the middle infield market offers few viable alternatives.
  • Mike, however, was bearish on the prospects of Daisuke Matsuzaka.
  • Mike wondered what the market will look like for Ryan Madson because there isn't much precedent for relievers entering free agency coming off Tommy John surgery.
  • Ben hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
  • Mike put together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
  • There are many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a refresher on how to use MLBTR and our roster of weekly features, including when they are posted and what exactly to expect from them.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Tulowitzki

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On Friday, Mike Axisa checked in on the stock of free-agent-to-be Marco Scutaro.  The veteran has proved to be one of the most high-impact trade deadline pickups since being dealt from the Rockies to the Giants.  Scutaro was initially high on staying put in Colorado but has quickly warmed up to San Francisco and says that he would like to stay put.  With that said, the free agent market doesn't have a ton to offer when it comes to middle infielders and retaining the 36-year-old could cost the Giants a pretty penny.  Here's more out of the NL West..

  • Despite Troy Tulowitzki's injury-related setbacks this season, there is no sign that the Rockies are willing to explore a trade for him, writes Troy Renck of The Denver Post.  Renck asked the soon-to-be 28-year-old if he would be open to possibly shifting over to third base, but the shortstop rejected that idea.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that it is highly unlikely that we will see suspended outfielder Melky Cabrera appear in a postseason game for the Giants.  Doing so would require leaving a roster spot open until the sixth playoff game of the year, which would be a sizable commitment considering that they don't know what he could bring to the table.  Beyond that, the Giants are likely upset with Cabrera on a personal level.
  • Rockies manager Jim Tracy is happy about the club's decision to go with a five-man rotation in 2013, Renck writes.  The Rockies experimented with a four-man starting rotation this season but will now modify that plan to have five starters on a 90-100 pitch count with three "piggyback" relievers.  Renck writes that the tweak should make the Rockies more appealing to veteran pitchers such as Kevin Millwood this winter.
  • More from Renck, who writes that the Rockies are working to get a better handle on how the altitude of their home ballpark effects them and how they can approach the game differently.  That has manifested itself in the form of the aforementioned pitching experiment but could also result in other creative changes going forward.

NL Central Notes: Hart, Carpenter, Pirates

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The Brewers continue their push for the second NL Wild Card spot as they look to win their series against Mets this afternoon at Miller Park. However, they will have to do so without Corey Hart. Hart has been sidelined for the last six games since he partially tore the plantar fascia, the connective tissue that runs across the bottom of the foot, in his left foot a week ago. Hart did running drills this morning, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, and all did not go well. Hart, who was able to run in a straight line but suffered discomfort when making stops and turns, said, "It’s a little frustrating. Today was the first day I tried to run the bases, and it didn’t go as planned.” Elsewhere from the NL Central:

East Notes: Girardi, Nationals, Rays, Bay

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Division leaders and their rivals are squaring off today in both the AL and NL East. With the Yankees looking to pad their four-game lead over the Rays in their rubber match and the Braves looking to pull within 5.5 games of the front-running Nationals with a sweep, here are the notes, quotes, and song lyrics from the East:

  • GM Brian Cashman reiterated Joe Girardi will manage the Yankees next year, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Cashman was specifically asked, if in his mind, Girardi will be the manager regardless of what happens. "Yup," was Cashman's reply.
  • The Nationals aren't letting the Stephen Strasburg controversy and the recent skid in Atlanta dampen their enthusiasm, according to the Washington Post's James Wagner. Mark DeRosa is the most vital presence in keeping the clubhouse loose with Wagner calling him part team dad and part team comedian.
  • The Nationals' season is of historic proportions, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. With 1933 the last time a Washington franchise won a league title and the District of Columbia having seen two versions of the Senators come and go in the interim, Svrluga also gives a lesson in how to calculate magic numbers for those who might have already perfected the math behind RGIII's QB rating.
  • In addition to trying to make the playoffs, September is also about playing for awards and new contracts for the Rays, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. 
  • Jason Bay told Pat Borzi of the New York Times that he doesn't believe the effects of two concussions are the cause of his disappointing season. Manager Terry Collins hinted that was the case before the Mets' series in Milwaukee. Bay responded, "Terry’s asked me that, and I have nothing to quantify that with. How do you know? I don’t feel like it has. A lot of people look for a lot of reasons as to why things may or may not have come down as they historically have. Albeit that’s a viable scenario, but I can’t tell you from one day to the next how it felt. Those things did occur, but if I knew the answer, I would have fixed it by now.”
  • There is no easy fix for the Red Sox as they begin the long task of rebuilding their roster, writes the Boston Herald's John Tomase who provided a critique of the franchise from ownership to the farm system.
  • It has been a surprising year for Bobby Valentine and Buck Showalter, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. No one could have predicted, even himself Sherman admits, the seasons the two managers have experienced.
  • In a separate article, Sherman believes starting pitching will determine the Yankees' post-season fate.
  • GM Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to reporters the Blue Jays are exploring moving their Triple-A club to Buffalo from Las Vegas, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. This would, in effect, bump the Mets, currently affiliated with Buffalo, to Las Vegas.
  • Rays' manager Joe Maddon summed up his team's offensive problems by turning to song, reports the Tampa Bay Times' Topkin. "Again, we've sang this song," Maddon said. "I'm sure we could make a nice country and western song out of this whole thing. Between your dog and your pickup, we came up short again. We came up short agin." Unfortunately, Maddon will not be eligible in the songwriting category at the Country Music Awards tomorrow night.

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