Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com checked in with an American League executive to get his predictions on what kind of deals this winter's top free agents might get. Here are some highlights..
- The exec sees Josh Hamilton getting a five-year, $150MM deal, giving him a guaranteed average annual value of $30MM and eclipsing the record set by Alex Rodriguez's ten-year, $275MM pact. The Rangers aren't known for giving out excessively-long deals, meaning that he would likely have to take five years to stay in Texas. One person in the know wondered if the Rangers would even go to five to keep the outfielder.
- Executives believe that the Rays will make the qualifying offer of around $13MM for B.J. Upton as his nice all-around season should net him at least a four-year deal elsewhere. The exec sees $60MM over five years for Upton, but Heyman notes that it's a pretty good center field market with Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino also out there.
- White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy could get a two year deal worth $25-30MM in the opinion of the AL exec. Heyman adds that it isn't hard to see the Dodgers making a play for Peavy after years of watching him dominate for the Padres.
- The executive thinks Dodgers outfielder Shane Victorino could fetch a two-year, $25MM deal and Heyman sees the Nationals, Mets, Braves, Phillies, and Giants as possible fits. However, he'll have to lower his expectations after originally seeking a five-year deal.
- The AL exec sees Angels pitcher Zack Greinke getting $125MM over six years. Nats pitcher Edwin Jackson is in line for a four-year, $55MM deal, according to the exec, though Heyman thinks he'll get less.
30 million seems like wayyy too much for just 5 years. I understand A-rod’s deal because theyd have him for 10 years, but 5? I wouldnt take it.
uhh what are you talking about? :s
If Victorino winds up at 2/$25M, then I would add the Padres to his list of suitors. They will be looking for an upgrade in RF, as well as a legit leadoff man. They are familiar with Victorino, and his game translates well to PetCo. I think his fire and intensity would also be of great benefit to the Padres. Seems like a logical fit, and would give the Padres a 2013 lineup of Victorino, Forsythe, Headley, Quentin, Grandal, Alonso, Maybin, Cabrera. Not too shabby.
As a Padre fan, I would track down Byrnes and get my hands dirty if he gave Victorino 2/25m. So he can seemingly displace Will Venable… no thanks, I’d rather go with Venable and allocate that 10m elsewhere.
Victorino has looked pretty bad all of this season. Maybe he’s hurt, but his bat is slow, and he’s hitting about.250 now which is over 20 points below his career average
I could see him getting $20MM but there aren’t enough major market fits for him to get much more.
This should be a pretty exciting offseason
Hamilton 5 year/150m (seems about right)
Upton: 4 year/45m
Peavy: 2 year/28m
Victorino 3 year/40m
Greinke: 6 year/120m
Jackson 3 year/36m (maybe 4 year/50m)
150m for Hamilton seems right, just think it will be over 6 years. Edwin Jackson should get more then Victorino, IMO.
What is this inflation of 1000%, Hamilton a 32 year old left fielder with a drug and long injury history receiving a 5 year 150 million deal, really?
And Zack Greinke with anxiety issues in the past and a career ERA of 3.77 ERA getting 6 years 125 million….Who are those AL executives suggesting such things? An ex AL executive like Tony Reagins or JP Ricciardi maybe
I agree.
Zach Greinke has had some good years, but he has also had some mediocre seasons. He usually seems to average out to 3.50 era over recent years. That is way overpaying unless he gets it together.
On Hamilton that is insane overpay. He hit over 40 this season, but he will probably regress back to 30 range next year. He will also not be in center forever. He is not better than Pujols, Arod when he signed his contract, votto, etc.
.287/.358/.588/.947(ops) is alot different than arod’s .314/.422/.645/1.067(ops)
What teams are going to give that type of money to him? Yankees, Phillies, Angels all probably cant afford unless they want go over 189 for next 5 years. Detroit probably can’t afford a contract that big, because Detroit is actually more of a midmarket and I bet they are at their upper limits. Giants and marlins are already pretty high for what they can afford. I think the red sox are the only ones really, because Dodger’s outfield is full, and their payroll is already up over 160.
I just don’t see the Red Sox wanting to go all in with Hamilton. Oh, sure, if the market for him is weak and they could get him for more reasonable money and years, I could see them signing him. But not for top dollar and more than 4 yrs.
Neither do I, but they are one of the very few teams that could actually take on a $30M/ year player at the current time, Yankees too IF he replaces swisher, and Soriano opts out.
Josh Hamilton an elite baseball player who is a recovered drug abuser, he’s now been clean and sober for 6 years.
Zack Grienke’s anxiety issues are over exaggerated by fans and the media.
both those deals seem to be around what most experts believe they will receive
I have no problem giving Hamilton that kind of money. While he had problems that was a long time ago. And if you bring up the “drinking” He’s gotten drunk twice, and both times called the media and arranged the press conference the next day explaining what happened. He didn’t try to hide it.
If Josh Hamilton breaths too hard he injures his sinuses and gets chest infections. The guy is way too fragile for that kind of dough.
he didn’t get drunk fyi, just had a drink
No no…he got drunk, by his own admission. Make no mistake, I’m a Hamilton and Rangers fan, but he did get drunk on both occasions. Furthermore, Hamilton didn’t alert the media on the first offense. Rumors of pictures surfacing caused Hamilton to call a press conference. He did alert the Rangers both times the day after each.
5 yr. 150 mill contract to a 27 yr old “Albert Pujols” like phenom with 100% health. Sure, that contract could be justified and possibly worth it, but a 32 yr. old that has only had one season of 150 games or more played? Not worth it. Not even close. Hamilton is great and deserves to be payed accordingly, but 30 mill a year is too much.
Hey Jon, Victorino’s a 4th OF at this point, not a $12 mil one! Upton hit .240 this year, and NOBODY’s risking $150 mil on JosHGHamilton or $125 on schizo Greinke.
apparently you have some inside information on Hamilton. considering he is drug tested 3 times a week saying he uses hgh is just plain ignorant
Upton hit .240 this year,
-stops reading.
I’ve always liked Edwin Jackson. I think he’s underrated.
As a Jays fan, I’d love to see them pick him up for a contract in that range.
I’m really warming up to the idea of Upton In a Phillies uniform. They need a RHB with some pop and another guy that can steal some bags as well as play CF. I really don’t want to see them get in the Hamilton/Bourn sweepstakes. If they can get Upton and Keppinger, while having a full year of Utley and Howard, they could be a potential playoff team again. But that’s all a big IF.
What’s interesting is how few premium players without flaws are available. Pretty much everyone is a gamble.
how many premium players without flaws exist?
Ain’t many for sure, but Robbie Cano and Dustin Pedroia are 2 and top of the class 2b with bat and glove to boot.
On Josh Hamilton, given his injury history, I would be surprised if he got anywhere near 5 years, $150M…I can see him getting 5 years, but not more than $110M. His off-the-field issues are behind him, BUT he has trouble staying on the field.
@jpjh:disqus – I would think that Edwin Jackson might want to go for stability instead of being handed off to other teams like a government mule.
5 year/$150 million for Hamilton?!? Bahaha. Not a chance. That anonymous executive is crazy. No way Hamilton gets more than Matt Holliday. I predict 4 years, $100 million with one or two option years.
And this is coming from a Rangers fan who very much appreciates Hambone’s talent.
Greinke to the Dodgers next year watch
The Dodgers are going to need at least two starting pitchers. If they can somehow snatch up Greinke and Peavy, watch out. They would have a rotation as good as anybodies. Kershaw, Greinke, Peavy, Beckett would be sure things to be in the rotation, and Capuano, Harang and Billingsley (if he does not need Tommy John) can all fight for the 5th spot. With the way the new ownership has been operating, if they want those two pitchers, they will get them.