Here's a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (video link)..
- It's likely that the Rangers will pursue a trade for the Diamondbacks' Justin Upton this offseason. Upton would join Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar as a part of the team's future offensive core. Of course, Texas will be facing the potential losses of Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and Nelson Cruz will be entering his final year under contract. In a deal for Upton, the D'Backs would likely have interest in shortstop Elvis Andrus.
- Stephen Drew is basically on a six-week audition with the A's and the club won't rule out bringing him back for 2013, perhaps even by exercising their end of his $10MM option. Drew's agent Scott Boras has shown a willingness to do one-year deals to help players re-establish value and the shortstop has a strong relationship with Bob Melvin.
- The Red Sox won't regret trading Josh Beckett when they had the chance. Even though this winter's available pitchers aren't necessarily elite, there are plenty of more attractive options than Beckett. Three of the big free agents: Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, and Anibal Sanchez, haven't upped their value since being traded and their prices could sink. Dan Haren and Ervin Santana could be available if the Angels decline their options and pitchers like Gavin Floyd and Justin Masterson could be on the trade block.
- The Reds are leaning against promoting Billy Hamilton, who has 148 stolen bases in the minors this season. The idea of using him as a pinch runner in September would be extremely exciting, but the club doesn't believe that he will be ready to play in the majors next season and he would basically be a waste of a 40-man spot.
It doesn’t matter how well Beckett may pitch in LA, the Red Sox still wont regret it because he was never going to pitch well in Boston again. Sometimes things just run their course — this is one of those times. As a Red Sox fan, I love this move & can’t wait to start wearing my Cherington jersey around town…
^ Making me blush!
Why would he not pitch well in Boston again?
Gee, I don’t know. I was just using the last 12 months as my sample in addition to his complete indifference to the quality of his outings.
I highly doubt the D-Backs trade Upton to the Texas and don’t ask for Olt. Profar is obviously untouchable as he’s one of the top, if not the top prospect in the game.
That’s why Andrus makes sense
J-Up for Andrus swap makes perfect sense. Profar by all accounts will be ready next year & the D’Backs have nothing at SS. Parra would probably be the full time RF?
It makes sense for Tex, not for AZ. Selling low on Upton, Andrus isnt that good. Tex would kill to make that trade.
Andrus is possibly the best all around SS in the game, and definitely top 3, so a package centered around Andrus for Upton would make a lot of sense for Arizona.
Even Stephen Drew had a better OPS+ in his first 3 years. I just dont get the love for him. Andrus career OPS+ is 3 points higher than Willie Bloomquists last 5 years. Reyes is a 112. Andus 85.
andrus’ first three years were at age 20-22. that’s a time when most young players get better…in A ball, AA, and AAA. he did it all in the majors, and has improved his offense each of the last three seasons. by wRC+:
77
96
106
100 is league average; average at shortstop is more like 90. his defense is fantastic. he’s 23 years old
the only downside is the remaining years of control. if i’m arizona, i probably just want prospects or at least players with less service time. but that’s no slight to andrus, who is a great talent
All that is great, except you can say the same thing about upton, who just turned 25 today, and has about a 125 wrc+
you are shifting the goalposts now, probably on purpose
you introduced data and a comparison: the offense of andrus v. the offense of drew & reyes. it’s not a good one, for reasons i just showed
instead of acknowledging that, you’re now you’re comparing a shortstop’s offense to a right fielder’s. slick move i guess
everyone knows andrus is not on upton’s level – particularly offensively. everyone (else?) also knows they play two very different positions. among other reasons, that’s why a package around andrus is being suggested, not a straight-up trade
comparing andrus’ bat to upton’s makes less than no sense
There’s no point in arguing with qudjy1, because (s)he doesn’t put any stock in defense, only OPS+. Pointing out their WAR, Elvis outshines Upton. Elvis has 2.825 WAR/year, while Upton is 2.32 WAR/year. Elvis Andrus is the superior player.
You are mostly correct. Its not that i dont put ANY stock in defense, just its defenses weight in WAR. Andrus value is ALL defense and baserunnng. I just dont think the weights are right. Thats OK by the way, there isnt a right or wrong answer. Thaks for the discussion.
Wow….just WOW.
a) You’re acting as if Upton hasn’t been an elite defender over the last 3 years,
b) If you compare their aggregate WAR since Andrus has been in the league full time then you’ll see that DESPITE an off 2012 Upton has still amassed more WAR than Andrus over that period (16.1 vs 14.2).
And if you want to just focus on smaller samples and let WAR dictate the conversation of who is better (even though that’s a tough job since they are two different position players) then Melky Cabrera MUST have been a better and more valuable player than Andrus over the last two seasons because he has more WAR than him, and I don’t think anyone is going to try and argue in Melky’s favor.
I’m sure we’re using different sites that list different WAR values. You can have your FanGraphs, I’ll stick with Baseball-Reference, and you can debate which is better and why, and I’ll ignore it.
Baseball-reference from 2009 on (since Andrus entered in 2009 as a full time player).
Justin-12.2 WAR
Andrus-11.3 WAR
Makes sense to compare them from the times they were both in the league.
I can do this all day homie. Hurricane Isaac is coming and my party schedule is clear.
Sure, lets give Upton a free pass on his rookie year, and the extra year of maturity over Andrus. That makes perfect sense… NOT!
I’m not giving him a pass but if you’re going to use WAR to determine who is better then why not use a set starting point and work from there?
I’m sure that when they entered the league IS a set starting point. The first 2 years of Upton’s career count just as much as Andrus’s. If you’re going to find a fair starting point, make it 2 years after Andrus enters the league. 7.1 Andrus, 7.0 Upton. To which, you will say “but that favors Andrus and your argument”
And I would say there’s a negligible difference between a 7.1 and a 7.0 to make an argument that Andus is clearly the better player.
Here’s the problem if you want to go by WAR solely to say who is better than who then Ben Zobrist (according to BR WAR) was the best player in the game last year. Are you prepared to say that he was better than Kemp, Braun, Ellsbury and Cabrera last year? If you want to use Bat avg to say who the better hitter was then Michael Young was a better hitter than Joey Votto and Ryan Braun. It’s just lazy to think like that.
But even if I reduce the conversation to BR’s WAR there’s nothing that show Andrus is clearly a better player than Upton.
Please tell me you’re kidding… Michael Young has SIX seasons of 200+ hits… Braun and Kemp each have 1. NONE of the others you mentioned have ever managed that feat. Braun and Cabrera are the only ones that you could argue. You seem to think that production = hitting. Home runs are hits, but hitting a home run does NOT equal 4 singles. When comparing the ability to HIT, you look at the hits, not the value of their hits. Obviously, I am not arguing slugging ability, just the ability to make contact, putting into play safely.
Ok so Derek Jeter is a better hitter than Ryan Braun because he has more hits and a higher batting average than him? Even as a Yankee fan I understand that isn’t correct.
If Young ever had a dream that he was ever a better hitter then Votto then he would need to wake up, contact Votto and apologize to him,
You still don’t know the difference between a hitter and a slugger, do you?? Shame, shame…
You can do this all day, but you lack the ability to check your info… Isaac isn’t a hurricane… yet. Let’s call things what they are. It’s a hurricane prospect, and prospects don’t always pan out.
If its a package, thats fine – i thought we were talking straight up – so you have to compare theym straight up. My apologies.
I believe you are overlooking Andrus’s defensive capabilties, which are occasionally useful at SS.
Nah – just dont beleive that it is THAT much greater than bloomquist/macdonald/replacement value that i would give up Uptons prime years for.
Andrus has a higher OPS than Upton this season.
This is true. All the more reason to not trade Upton now. If you believe his last 5 years, he is better than this. Upton had a thumb intjury early, and some think he was impacted by the beanings he took (one in the head) last year. Just depends which upton you think you are getting. If its the 130 OPS+ guy, than this doenst make any sense. Like i said, i would rather AZ go after JJ Hardy or someone like that for a bucket of balls, rather than give up Uptons Upside for the marginal improvment in SS, and then have Parra/young playing everyday, which would ruin the platoon advantage they currently have.
I agree with you. If I’m Arizona, I’d be better off getting someone like Hardy and wait for Upton’s trade value to rebound next season, also.
If I’m Texas, I’d be better off either (1) going with in-house options at OF (Murphy, Gentry, Martin, Profar, and Olt); or (2) Using all the money Texas is sitting on to either resign Hamilton or go after a free agent OFer like Bourn, Victorino, or BJ Upton.
Arizona wants full value for Justin Upton and if you see Jon Daniels’ moves the last few years (with the exception of the Cliff Lee trade), giving up young talent and top prospects isn’t how he operates.
As an orioles fan, I have to say Hardy won’t come cheap at all. He provides probably the best D at shortstop in the league, anything he adds offensively is gravy. When you add on that he has 30 HR power and he will be quite expensive.
bleh – well then forget him too.
By .004 points.
I think it is much more likely that we will see Upton to return to being a 25-35 hr hitting OF with above average defense than it is to see Andrus mature into a better hitter. In other words, we are seeing Andrus near his peek, meaning that he will most likely be a .285-.300 contact hitter, with a good OBP around .350-365 and 20-30 SB, which is elite for a SS.
That’s why it’s best to look at a player over the course of more than 1 season to evaluate them.
What makes you think Andrus has peaked? He’s only 23 and has improved every season.
Your first problem is using OPS+ (which is simply OPS scaled around league average OPS, and OPS is a very flawed stat), and your second problem is assuming that that is anywhere near all that matters. Andrus is one of the best defensive SSs in the majors, as well as an above average hitter for SSs, is a plus runner, and is still only 23 years old.
Using wRC+ the average SS has been 86 since ’09, over that same period Andrus has been 91, he was also 20-23 in those years and continuously getting better (96 wRC+ last year, an 106 wRC+ so far this year).
The key words you used that others haven’t is ”
a package centered around Andrus”. Some Texans are saying Andus alone is better than Upton.
Better than? Certainly not. As valuable as? Also probably not, but it’s probably a lot closer than most people would care to believe.
Andrus has one less year of control, but is a year younger (literally almost to the day – Upton was born 25 years ago today, Andrus was born 24 years ago tomorrow), is cheaper, and plays a far more valuable position. So while Andrus alone doesn’t get the deal done, I don’t think they have to add someone like Olt to make it happen.
I agree. Never said it had to be Andrus plus Olt. But someone else suggested that Andrus is worth more than Upton straight up.
Yeah, that’s definitely not the case.
Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Desmond want to collectively remind you that they might be as good or better than Elvis Andrus.
Merriam and Webster want to collectively remind you that you missed the operative word “possibly”.
well when you make a statement and then put qualifiers like “possibly” in front of them, it makes said statement empty. If he thinks Andrus is a top 3 Shortstop, then I disagree. as I said before, I prefer Jose Reyes, Ian Desmond, Troy Tulowitzki, Asdrubal Cabrera to Andrus. that’s even without considering the years of control all those players have relative to Andrus.
I’m fairly certain that the word “possibly” makes his statement perfectly valid, which makes your retort entirely unnecessary. “Possibly” does NOT make a statement empty, but rather takes into account the fact that others might not see things the same. Again, your retort, completely unnecessary.
Since ’09 Andrus is the third best SS in the game according to WAR, but he’s considerably younger than either one of them, and doesn’t come with the injury concerns they do.
I’d put Tulo at #1 I guess, but I’d take Andrus second.
I guess the difference in our valuations of Andrus and the rest of the other shortstops is on the value of defense. I prefer hitters to defenders, and controllability as well.
SS is the one position (besides possibly catcher) where defense matters the absolute most. And controllability speaks to value, not talent, so it doesn’t really belong in the conversation.
You either downplay Elvis’s defensive ability, defensive ability all together, are HIGH on Bloomquist and/or Drew. Upton’s not even a clear upgrade over their current outfielders, and even if Josh Hamilton leaves this off-season, there’s still Murphy, Gentry, and Cruz for an entire year. Andrus is way more valuable than you’re giving him credit for.
Mostly just defensive metrics, and thier impact on WAR. Yes, bloomquist isnt good, agree, so why is Andrus OPS+ remarkably similar to his/drew? Andrus is good defensively, no question. Im not interested in that upgrade for the price of Uptons upside. Also, Andrus has one year less of control.
Elvis’s impact on WAR is as much offensive as it is defensive. Upton’s WAR is STRICTLY offensive. If you’re going by OPS+, I’ll point out that only 4 everyday shortstops have higher OPS this season than Andrus. Measuring by one specific offensive category is a bit flawed. Upton isn’t a better hitter than Andrus, just a more powerful one. Upton’s power isn’t enough to discount Andrus’s defense.
I cant say i agree. I think defense is weighted much too high in some of the metrics like WAR, etc. If you go by OPS Andrus OPS is 755, willie bloomquists is 720. And i cant type what i think about bloomquist and have it get by the mods! Power is part of hitting, it just is. Singles dont count as much as HRs, thats why there are 4 bases, not 1 or 2. Uptons fielding rates very highly too, if you believe fielding metrics, which obviously, im not too high on. Uptons WAR is almost 50-50 fielding and hitting, which my eyes tell me is kinda silly, but its the same system for eveyrone i guess.
You just like offense, perhaps you should have been a Rangers fan from 1992-2004; I’ve seen teams loaded with OPS players, and that’s not what creates success… go find me something BESIDES OPS to base your argument on, because you have failed.
I like defense just fine, just dont believe the metrics and the defensive weighting in WAR. Like i said below, Andrus defense isnt worth 12 wins a year. No way. It just doesnt make sense. Maybe 2-3. Defense over replacement just doesnt make or break wins that much.
You are really inconsistent in your thinking:
a) UZR is best looked at over a 3 or 4 year period and WAR really needs to be viewed for more than just 1 year too.
b)Upton from 2009-2012: +22.6 WAR and 16 WAR
Fact: Upton has consistently been an above avg defensive player. Upton’s overall game is not up to his usual standards in 2012.
c) Andrus from 2009-2012: +25.8 UZR and 14.2 WAR
Fact: Andrus has a .700 OPS which is good for a SS but compared to players as a whole, not much to talk about. The majority of his value, for MOST of his career is based off of his defensive value and speed, not his bat.
I think it’s just as bad to look at Andrus’ 2012 season and say he’s a good hitter as it is to look at Upton’s 2012 season and say he’s not a better hitter or as good as a defender.
Again. re-read. I did not say that Andrus was a good hitter, nor Upton a better hitter, go look at their career average PLEASE!!! They are pretty much the same: Andrus .277, Upton .276. You CAN’T say that I’m wrong.
I can say you are wrong for using batting average to compare who is a better hitter.
Andrus is a good hitter for a SS. Upton is plain and simple a good hitter period and thinking that he won’t be a better power hitter in 2013 seems short sighted.
REALLY?? AVG is EXACTLY what defines how good a hitter a person is. SLG with AVG is what determines what KIND of hitter they are. Upton is NOT a better hitter than Andrus, just a more powerful one. If you can’t understand this, there is little hope for you.
Ok so Andrus is a better hitter than Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Beltran too, by your logic.
Bat avg shows a hitters contact hitting ability (for the most part).
OBP shows their ability to get on base (via a hit or a walk).
Slugging demonstrates their ability to hit for extra bases.
You can’t look at one and say “he is the better hitter”.
This year, currently, yes he is. Overall, he has some work to do, but in this season, he is the better hitter of the group. In the Andrus/Upton comparison, their career avg is nearly identical.
Ok..you think Andrus is a better hitter than Pujols because of their bat avg? Nuff said. I’m good.
Don’t forget Texas also has Leonys Martin to play CF. They could also audition Profar and Olt in LF/RF during ST and in AAA.
If Texas doesn’t resign Hamilton, I don’t see them spending big on the OF. Texas certainly isn’t going to trade an All Star SS for Upton when they have Murphy on the roster. People forget that Murphy has an OPS of .893 this year, which is significantly higher than Upton.
Texas may go with what they have in the outfield next year and use the extra money to improve their pitching staff and lock up Napoli. The Rangers didn’t get to where they are by trading their young talent.
I dont think an Upton for Andrus swap makes much sense for AZ.
I don’t think it makes much sense for TEX
Works for me.
Why not? Upton would fill hole left by Hamilton (who probably is gone). Profar is ready to hit major league pitching. Could do something like
DH Cruz
C- Napoli
1B- Olt
2B- Kinsler
SS- Profar
3B- Beltre
RF- Upton
CF- Gentry/Martin
LF- Murphy
Know the problem with your lineup?? you’re paying $16mil for Young to ride the bench.
Texas would be better off moving Profar to LF/CF and keeping Andrus. Andrus hasn’t even reached his prime yet and he’s still awesome. Same is true of Upton, but I’d sooner keep Andrus, give Profar time in the OF at AAA, and roll with Murph, Martin, and Cruz for the start of 2013.
That $9 million Upton would be owed could be better spent on the pitching staff considering we’re about to lose Dempster, Feldman, Oswalt, Adams, Uehara, Lewis, and Feliz (Tommy John) next year.
I agree. I’m a Texas fan and I don’t see it making sense for either side.
texas would have to include olt and andrus for az to consider it considering andrus isnt locked up longterm and isnt the same player upton is. wont be that easy for texas
SS is more of a premium position than RF. Value of players roughly equal considering D-Backs are pretty much committed to trading Upton.
Show me where the dbacks are committed to trading Upton? SS or not, Andrus has never had an OPS+ over 100, and he isnt locked up past 14? Pass. OMG pass.
When the front office makes it pretty clear to anyone willing to listen that they are open to trade him for the past few months it seems likely that he will be traded or else why say anything? He will be traded.
Texas probably would’nt trade Andrus for Upton straight up. Especially after his down season. There would have to be other pieces involved perhaps on both sides. Texas certainly wouldn’t trade Andrus and Olt for Upton.
Remember Texas has about $45 million coming off the books this Winter in Hamilton, Napoli, Feldman, Oswalt, Adams, Uehara, and Soto. So they’ll have free agent flexibility. And even if they don’t sign a big hitter like Hamilton, they could just as easily move Profar to LF and save themselves the $9 they would owe Upton to lock up Napoli.
However, Texas will be losing several pieces from their pitching staff (including Feliz to Tommy John), so a bigger trade including Andrus++ for Upton++ may be possible if Arizona has some pitching or catching depth to give up.
Uptons value>>>>Andrus value
According to who? If I’m Arizona, I might agree with you. I’m sure Upton’s trade value will never be lower. But if you’re Texas, do you give up a defensive wiz at SS for a more expensive OF with a lower OPS this season? No. Especially when you have two or three top prospects who can play OF for a fraction of the cost.
Arizona will probably have to come down on their trade demands to move Upton this Winter. Otherwise, they’ll hold on to him and trade him next July (which might be the better move for them).
Good points – if Tex has internal options for OF, this makes even less sense. Its just sellling low on upton for a marginal improvment, and i dont like AZs replacement options for OF. A pretty big factor is that Andrus has one less year of control – so Andrus could walk after 14. Thats not the kind of player im trading upton for.
You might want to go check out Round Rock’s stats…
Leonys Martin – .361/.426/.615
Julio Borbon – .316/.381/.526
Joey Butler – .285/.387/.454
Yangervis Solarte – .282/.336/.395
Ryan Spilborghs – .294/.361/.429
The Rangers have PLENTY of AAA options for Major League playing time next year. There’s no point in trading a defensive wiz at SS for a guy who’s not any better than David Murphy. I’d rather, and I would put my money on Texas doing the same, run Murphy/Gentry/Cruz out there than trade Andrus for Upton in ANY capacity.
Leo Martin looks like a good prosepect, cant say i have seen much from the others, until i saw Ryan Spilborghs??? haha… Upton (until this year) wsa a 130 OPS guy in teh MAJORS before his 24th bday. its a little different. Thats great, so, why does rosenthal say TEX is looking for outfielders?
That’s ridiculous. The Rangers haven’t even had innings available to play their 4th outfielder, much less top prospects such as Leonys Martin.
Whats rediculous? Texas needing an OFer?? It wasnt my statement that said they did. I did make fun of you counting ryan spilborghs as a sutiable substitute for Upton though.
Did I say that Ryan Spilborghs is a substitute for Upton?? You need to learn how to comprehend what you read. I never listed ANY of those guys as substitutes for Upton, but rather substitutes for TRADING Andrus for Upton. Rangers HAVE outfielders. Perhaps you think that Rosenthal works for the Rangers… he does not, he works for Fox, and the Rangers don’t need outfielders.
Welcome to the Pacific Coast League.
.318/.419/.568 w/ .986 OPS
.325/.426/.532 w/ .958 OPS
.249/.400/.375 w/ .875 OPS
.279/.432/.365 w/ .797 OPS
“That’s Steve Pearce, Chris Dickerson, Jack Cust and Kosuke Fukudome. Let’s make a deal!”.
B.Cashman
AAA stats mean nothing. You are the Rangers with a huge payroll and have just joined the “must win the world series or bust” fraternity. Welcome aboard.
its not a guarantee hamilton leaves we got alot of money coming also we are a big market team.
Love how you present that “move Profar” to LF (if Hamilton walks) as if he’s a lock to provide all-star level play.
If Billy Hamilton can’t play better than Drew Stubbs RIGHT NOW, then I’m the King of England.
That’s an insane amount of steals even if it’s in the minors.
What kind of contract extension from the Snakes would Andrus agree to after the trade to keep Boras happy? Even though he’s not a power hitter Boras will still look for close to 100M right? Elvis currently has 2 years left after this season…