The Upton brothers made history tonight as both Justin and B.J. hit their 100th career home runs. They become the sixth pair of brothers to each hit 100 Major League homers and the first to reach the plateau on the same evening. Here are some more news items from around the majors as we head into the weekend…
- Ichiro Suzuki's trade to the Yankees has spurred rumors that the Mariners' ownership group may be considering selling the team, writes CBS Sports' Scott Miller. Team CEO Howard Lincoln recently called the rumors "absolute nonsense."
- The Diamondbacks' search for an ace pitcher at the trade deadline involved a serious pursuit of James Shields and "kicking the tires" on Matt Garza, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D'Backs asked the Red Sox about starting pitching (Piecoro presumes Josh Beckett and Jon Lester) but the talks went nowhere since the Snakes weren't willing to trade their top prospects.
- Garza, Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Vargas, Chase Headley and Cliff Lee are five stars who would be on different teams had five deals "that should have happened but didn't" actually taken place before the deadline, writes ESPN's Jim Bowden (ESPN Insider subscription required).
- Jack Moore of Fangraphs looks at three hitters and three pitchers who could be trade targets in August.
- Mark Appel holds the #1 spot on Baseball America's ranking of 2013 amateur draft prospects. In general, the draft class is not thought to be overly deep, given a "generally underwhelming collection" of hitters and a high school class projected to be weaker than last year.
The 2015 class is going to be stacked thanks to the new rules.
While I would have agreed with a Choo trade for the right pieces, I really think we should have traded Perez. Closers are always over valued and we already have a better replacement in Pestano. If we had dangled him a little bit more instead of Masterson I’m sure a contender with bullpen issues would have panicked and given us a good deal for him.
how do you know that they weren’t actually offering him, but that they just didnt receive a satisfactory offer?
I know there is one kid from here in Indiana who is supposed to be a great prospect. He’s going to be a HS Senior, Left handed pitcher, can throw right now low to mid 90s I believe. He’s signed to play at Texas. Supposed to be a top 5 pitching prospect out of the HS ranks.
I thought it was awesome that Upton brothers hit their 100th HR on the same day within 30 mins of each other.
Then I started to really think about that for a second. What are the actual odds of that happening? I mean BJ even started earlier than Justin. I would be interested to know if some mathematician could figure that out.
There’s absolutely no solid… well, anything to calculate it off of.
It’s the first time it’s ever happened so it would be one divided by the total number of people alive from when the MLB started until around 1995 (anyone born after that has 0% chance of being in majors).
not quite solid math there.
What is the odds of something happening once , ever, in the history of human existence? I’d like to hear your math.
hhaha, not quite.
The odds are actually even greater than that…..
-first you’d need to exist
-second you’d have to make the majors
-third you’d have to have your brother make the majors
-fourth you’d both have to hit 100 HR on same day
It will probably never happen again.
My original comment was half joking but the odds are closer 1:100,000,000,000 than 1:1,000,000
Assigning the variables “everyone who ever played” as P (for players), the number of players who ever hit 100 home runs as H (for Home Runs), and the total number of days since the inception of MLB as D (for days), which should, essentially, be somewhere around 180 times 136, or 24,480:
What you would have to do is (1/P)2, but that’s just to find the odds of two brothers playing in the majors. Then, multiply that by (1/H)2. That would give you the odds of two brothers hitting 100 career home runs each in the majors. Finally, find (1/D)2, and multiply that by the previous steps. That should give you your answer.
(1/P)2(1/H)2(1/D)2
Those 2’s are supposed to be squared. The one I pasted changed to a regular 2.
According to Baseball Almanac, as of Opening Day 2007, there had been about 16,440 players in MLB history. According to Baseball-Reference, only 785 of those players hit 100 career home runs, including BJ and Justin Upton. Rolling back my previous estimate 5 years, from 2012 to 2007, gives us 23,580 days. So:
(1/16,440)2(1/785)2(1/23,580)2 = 1.0798649833400491478380615849431e-23
So our odds are 1:107,986,498,334,004,914,783,806
So, essentially, the odds are 1:108 sextillion.
Thanks Bobby!
So basically the odds of this happening is greater than finding life on another planet?
Yeah I would think so too. The odds are pretty astronomical in my opinion as well. Because of the variables that have to occur for this to happen. That’s why it boggles my mind.
I thought that Justin would’ve hit the milestone a little faster than BJ because of power and playing in Chase field even though BJ had a head start. I’m hoping MLB Network or BBTN do get the numbers and share it.
And as all these nice geniuses helped me point out, there’s literally not enough of anything to calculate this with.
What is it of importance really? oddity? It isn’t a long standing record or anything?
I remember when Boston fans were all up in arms when the Conigliaro brothers both broke the quickest/youngest brother tandem to 100HR mark also.. But that does not matter either.. It is just one of those foot note records in the scheme of things to MLB, just like hitting the 100th HR each on the same day.
Some people enjoy interesting things. Apparently you don’t.
What makes baseball a great game are these little oddities. While it may not be as obscure as some stat lines out there that involve a hitter doing well because its a full moon and he’s a libra hitting in September. Not a true stat but some stats nowadays are ….
I like this one because it involves two siblings. The chance of breaking a milestone in their careers on the same day 30 mins of each other is remarkable to me because it involves different variables. And its not like they collaborated with each other to get it done. Well I don’t think so anyway.
Stats like these are pretty awesome. To each his own right?
I can understand the brief interest in the oddity area. but really.. This one will fade away, as the fore mentioned Tony and Billy Congiliaro quickest tandem to 100 HR “record” at the youngest age.
It’s just one of those strange and true odd things that happens now and then. It must have been a LONG night and happy time on the phone after both games were completed between Justin & BJ however 🙂
Justin probably said, “So BJ now that our plan is complete I think I’ll start hitting 40-50 HRs a year now.”
For the sake of my fantasy team, let’s hope this is true. It’s the only real explanation of going from 31 homeruns to 9.
Correct me if I’m wrong but Appel cannot improve his stock because he cannot pitch for college this upcoming season. He was drafted hired an agent he should have given up his eligibility to pitch in the NCAA right?
Appel can play this upcoming season doesn’t matter if
He was drafted or not and he didn’t hire an agent it’s called an advisor and boras was his so called “advisor”
Depends on whether appel or boras negotiated with the pirates. in other
words, if appel/his family were negotiating and boras was just advising them,
then he can play in the NCAA.
If Boras was directly negotiating with the Pirates, then that’s acting as an agent and Appel loses NCAA eligibility.
Of course, its the NCAA, and their rules/enforcement of rules is slipshod at best.
Which is what I don’t understand. In basketball or, God forbid, football, just having an unpaid adviser gets you ruled ineligible. Look at Dez Bryant. Ruled ineligible for talking to a friend, Deion Sanders.
the NCAA is the only institution in america more insane than the IRS.
Hey now.. Once you bring in a government agency? You bring in them all.. Corruption is amok there, as in from top to bottom. Termite infestation. One day something/someone is going to “kick it hard” then the entire wall/system will come tumbling down if it is not reformed soon it is so eaten up with agency corruption they are so poorly ran.
oh, I don’t disagree with you at all on the corruption aspect. I’m more referring to the core policies and the complete inability for the layman to understand the way they function.
to turn it back to athletics…have you seen missy franklin and ryan lochte’s potential tax bills for the medals they’re winning? it’s truly astonishing. the NCAA functions similarly when it comes to athletes’ rights when being drafted — they act 100% in the interest of the schools and professional clubs, leaving the athlete (the person whose livelihood is at stake) with very few advantages to work the system in their favor whatsoever.
Saw that.. Disgusting… Same with college players (as you said) having to pay for everything, unable to accept 1 red cent from anyone, even under privileged ones who need all the help they can get.
Not sure how much you know about NCAA/College corruption in the past, but some actually gave degrees to athletes who couldn’t even read and write!!
Dexter Manley graduated from a major college OSU and years later admitted he couldn’t read and write! other players admitted later on they took “ghost courses” that admitted to doing nothing, or shopping etc.. Made up for them because they had -0- skills.
NCAA knew about this, yet turned a blind eye for decades. It’s why I stopped watching football when Roger Staubach retired and the entire Manley fiasco came to light, through with it.
I’m very familiar with the Dexter Manley story. It most definitely still goes on, but it’s an untalked about subject. the syllabi and grading standards for scholarship athletes is laughable, though nowhere near as asinine as in the past.
Sorry, broke away from your topic and went to Manley on you there…
yeah.. The colleges rake in tens of millions in advertising, sponsorships, television revenue etc.. They make fortunes off of these athletes, yet they do virtually nothing for them. Some even have to pay for their schooling (walk ons) and it is outrageous.
The Astros will take Appel next year. He is from Houston and would have signed this year if they had taken him. And the Astros just signed two Boras clients this year – McCullers and Ruiz.
yep. especially if the 2013 draft is weaker than the 2012 one, and appel has far less leverage this time around (college senior)
“The D’Backs asked the Red Sox about starting pitching (Piecoro presumes Josh Beckett and Jon Lester) but the talks went nowhere since the Snakes weren’t willing to trade their top prospects.”
Since no one else has brought this up.. The idea Beckett would bring back a decent prospect, ther than salary relief at all this season is comical. Boston should have just moved him and given up. I really have not gotten used to ownership the last 25+ years and how they operate. Sometimes they need to tell the band wagon fans to shove off and rebuilding is best, they have the farm system to do so and only 2 years at best before the team will be more than reloaded at the most. from within
Move Beckett, Salty and Ellsbury. Beckett for salary and Ells + Salty for prospects, not even a full rebuild is required this time with 1 top prospect already waiting to take over at catcher on the roster.
Get real Boston. Ignore the media for once.
as someone who lives in mass and thinks i understand something about baseball, i don’t understand why the red sox should rebuild.
if you’re looking at the talent on the field, the red sox have more of it than most of the teams above them for the wildcard (except the angels). they’re underachieving, but its not because of a lack of talent.
Not a full blown rebuild Rex.. Just the ones I named and can be replaced for the most part.. Ells they are not going to resign anyway, plus has good value.. Shop him and see if he has good value.. If not? Move him in the off season then. They do NOT resign him.. Becket? Move him if possible if they can. Salty? Catching is desperate situation around the league, Salty is NOT worth what the market rate is currently at (thanks to Montero deal) and he is a FA after 2013, so move him with Lavarnway, already on the roster **finally**.
Kalish can handle CF until Bradley comes onboard, Crawford can get his surgery NOW and be ready for next season and they can get a decent prospect(s) for both Salty and Ells and relief out of Beckett to direct at a better Anibel Sanchez after the season.
This season is shot out, they are a “1 and done” team this year, worse shape than they were when they were in 88-89 with Oakland when they were a combined “6 and done” those 2 series and wasted Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling to get Mike Boddicker.
I ain’t no newbie to watching this team either Rex, been doing it since before the “Impossible Dream team” of ’67 🙂